Ha... That's a great story. Of course, Charlie did buy Apple.
Y' know Steve, darts might just very well be the right approach to this crazy market.
I'm admittedly not generally a "random"-minded individual, but it might be a nice breath of fresh air... could be good to let go of the "reins" for a while, and just sit back and enjoy the ride... IF I could actually enjoy such a ride.... doubtful.
My guess is that the EU is comprised only of those nations that have the Euro as their currency but the Eurozone is a larger group (not all necessarily having the Euro as their currency) of countries.
Just the opposite, Cyclone. EU is the larger group linked by European treaties (including for instance Sweden and the UK), and the Eurozone encompasses those EU nations that also have the Euro as their currency.
The eurozone, officially the euro area, is an economic and monetary union (EMU) of 16 European Union (EU) member states which have adopted the euro currency as their sole legal tender. It currently consists of Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain. Eight (not including Sweden, which has a de facto opt out) other states are obliged to join the zone once they fulfill the strict entry criteria. Eleven countries—Denmark, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania—are in the European Union (EU) but do not use the euro. From Wikipedia
Jose, thanks for explaining that distinction and I hope you are not getting too impatient with your injury. I know it must be driving you crazy.
I had to cancel my regular Monday round of golf because of rain and cold. It was 48 degrees at 9 am this morning with a very cold rain. I drove my wife to the supermarket instead and while I waited in the car I had to get out twice to catch shopping carts and keep them from hitting my car. Seems that all the ladies were on a rampage this morning and just leaving their carts to blow around the parking lot !!
Looks like our SHOCK market is at it again this morning, but this time it is a good shock !! Take care.
Interesting Guardian timeline, thanks. I see the Euro spiked earlier and has now settled down a bit. All of this might make some of the more egoistic EU supporters of the world point and laugh at the US a little less. As with the bailout in NA, the EU action is simply averting collapse, not seeking to cure the disease. I agree with the future Euro values predicted in that chart. The markets in NA will also simmer down soon.
Shopping carts loosely driven are as dangerous as blind rockets. I really hate those supermarket parking lots. Once I was dinged by the driver door of the car next to me just after I had just parked in a mall parking lot. When I went out to discuss the issue, the lady driver, cigarette in hand, gave me the most disdainful look and said: So what? This is of no importance at all! You may guess her car looked as if coming from a scrapping yard. Fortunately enough, she had the car insured, which is not always the case.
My thinking is that as long as the Fed holds off on tightening to later in the year and has a gradual exit rather than all at once, and the normal cautionary wordings of terrorist threats avoided, is that the market has a long way to expand yet and will cross 12,000 this year.
Len,
Seems that you and I are still on the same page, expecting the Dow should hit 12K this year, and go beyond.
That said, I am still concerned about the market's structure and behavior, and I do believe that it is entirely possible that we will see the Dow under 10K before we see it rise to 12K.
Just the opposite, Cyclone. EU is the larger group linked by European treaties (including for instance Sweden and the UK), and the Eurozone encompasses those EU nations that also have the Euro as their currency.
Oops! Well, I was close :surprise: . Thanks for the clarification Jose.
I see that the $dollar index has rebounded a lot from early this morning. I'm sure there is still a lot of anxiety and uncertainty about all this. I am now hoping that the stock market can absorb some bad news once in a while.
My thinking is that as long as the Fed holds off on tightening to later in the year and has a gradual exit rather than all at once, and the normal cautionary wordings of terrorist threats avoided, is that the market has a long way to expand yet and will cross 12,000 this year.
I cannot see the Fed raising interest rates substantially any time soon due to the still fragile state of the economy.
Hopefully, the fiasco of last week will indeed result in much stronger regulations in order to avoid something like that from ever happening again.
Don't count on me among those egoistic EU supporters of the world pointing and laughing at the US. :mad: I know directly the US and I like it. I have relatives there. I have American friends and visitors. I have visited schools of medicine and universities in the US and Canada. I like in general the American attitude towards people and life.
I'm (mildly and critically, though I'm not showing this here) proud of my country and the EU; but not so much as being blind about other good places in the world and in particular the US. You said once nationalism is a good thing, but I think that in order to be fair, nationalism has to be mild and comprehensive of the position of the other. We people are tribal by genetics, but peaceful and civilized by thinking.
One thing I've learned while living abroad is that it is too easy to feel rejection because of your own loneliness, and to blame for it to those bloody foreigners who are so stupid, unfair and insensitive. I've learned that aliens are not (always) guilty.
Oh, you may (and the others in this forum) forgive me for these apparently unconnected phrases, but I am in a reflective mood these days.
I've read that the US and Chinese Governments are in touch with the EU to try to get in control the trade panic of last days and look for future regulations. Do you gentlemen have more information on this? What is your judgment: should be or not be such kind of agreement? If positive, what is your opinion on the sort of regulations that should be applied on a global, albeit particular for every market, scale? I openly say I think posters in this forum have fresh and sound opinions on markets, admittedly much better than mine.
There seems to be a lot of parallels between the Greek bailout and the AIG bailout. We did not really bail out AIG, we actually bailed out the banks that held the AIG debt.
Similarly, Greece is not the entity being bailed out, banks in France and Spain, who hold the Greek debt, are actually the beneficiaries here.
The U.S. appears to be headed down a similar road in the next two or three years. The major difference is that the U.S. can print money where Greece could not. So we will always be able to pay our debts, we just have to worry about massive inflation unless we get our spending under control.
Out of this crisis will come many positives..hopefully the less disciplined regions will be forced to act responsibly...and from the markets today, many will be able to eke out a little gain from the illogical markets too. I really don't see anything superior in the EU vs US economic ideal...especially once defense responsibilities are finally shifted. Both have huge positives and negatives festering under the surface.
Perhaps nationalism isn't the right term, as the globalists have given it such a negative connotation...maybe national identity works better. It does need to be considerate of those around it, but at the same time not commit suicide because of the emotional demands of those others.
The aliens are seldom soley responsible for problems...but insane massimmigration that promises to make many people in Europe dwindling minorities within this century, and the belief systems brought with such immigration being a direct threat to progress and justice is indeed a problem the EU needs to address. This will end up being expensive and unsustainable, as it will not create a modern future, and the weight of social welfare required will become destructive. Really, the indigenous people with bleeding hearts who do not understand the consequences of their actions are the problem. The idea of western guilt is expensive and asinine - but so much of the continent has bought into it, especially since the 1968 movement. In time we will see more reaction against this, and a civil war status could emerge which will cost the union economically - the EU thought crime mentality will not live forever. The EU needs to be an economic framework, not a system to control other laws.
You are not wrong, it is all connected.
And on the Greek mess...I once said it would be wrong to target GS and nobody else. Now seeing how that band of economic terrorists is behind this latest drama, I am all for the entire organization being investigated and punished.
Just to let you know, I'm working this evening on a new stock portfolio. I expect to be up late tonight and early tomorrow morning. As you know, we have to get up a lot earlier on the west coast for the opening bell.
So, it is entirely possible that I will purchase some stocks tomorrow, but it will depend on my homework tonight, the futures, and on the opening activity.
Good to see you too. Yep, pretty exciting stuff, but it will be around 2012 before I can take delivery of the beast. I can't convince anyone that this maybe a good investment, especially our friend TM. That's OK by me, especially since the dealer's GM verbally offered to buy the car at full price at the end of the 2 years mandatory lease.
That said, I am still concerned about the market's structure and behavior, and I do believe that it is entirely possible that we will see the Dow under 10K before we see it rise to 12K.
Much better than I deserve !! Retired, playing golf, traveling a little. My wife hates to travel....but she loves to shop ! Having fun with 3 grandsons. We are in good health so life is good.
Down to 2 cars, 2006 LS 430 and a 2007 LX 470. No complaints with either. Everything we have, including our home is paid for so we are in good shape as long as the stock market doesn't go berserk !!
I sent a letter to your carspace page about the LFA but if you are like me, you never check carspace.
The price of the LFA might be a better investment spent on traditional venues...but for a car in that price range, I predict it will fare far better than most. The supply is being controlled so tightly, and so many on this continent adore the brand that it will have some special status from new. future collectible no doubt.
I would have thought that if Friday was a big down day, and today was a big up day, then we should have bought THIS morning, not TOMORROW morning!
ABSOLUTLEY NOT! Truly no disrespect, but that's just plain WRONG!!!!!... and I will take the time to show you why, even though I am busy doing my research on my potential purchases for tomorrow.
Firstly, let me remind you that I had already posted my serious concerns about the market well BEFORE the big slide... that's not hindsight!... that was a PERFECT call. It truly was. I then sold most of my stocks at the top of the false rally, which wasn't hindsight... it was PERFECT timing... and I kept some dividend-paying stocks. I did ALL this... BEFORE the market took a nosedive. That's not hindsight.
Now, let's fast forward... As you should know, the "Greece fire" wasn't put out during the trading session on Friday. It was ironed out over the weekend. Buying THIS morning as you suggested would have been suicide, because there is no window that exists to buy before the market opens... that would be a wonderful dream come true, but it just isn't a possibility, which shows that you do not understand how the market works. The market opens with the gains already in place, so it then becomes a question of whether or not you believe the gains for the day will go even higher or retreat somewhat. I predicted an intra-day retreat, which turned out to be correct. So, BEFORE that point of retreat, the best thing to have done is to sell at the high, which I did, perfectly. That locks in the most gains, and allows for the possibility to buy back stocks as their prices retreat during the day... however, I decided to not do that today. I decided that because sometimes after a huge rally, there are stocks that settle back and become better buys the following day.
What makes the whole strategy and equation work for me is that today's gains did not completely erase the losses from last week, so I am still ahead of the position I would have been in had I simply held on! And... had there not been a weekend solution to the Greece situation, my advantage would have been even better than it already is. That's why I like to time the market when I can see it is possible. Otherwise I would not bother to do so. In addition, being mostly out of stocks, I had positioned myself to an almost zero risk level, which was still very high until a genuine solution to the "Greece fire" was put together, which happened over the weekend.
The best next opportunity for me could be tomorrow morning, although I could have played some of today's intra-day action, but I decided to sell my remaining stocks near their high for the day and wait until tomorrow.
And, that brings me to my next move. Because of my good "timing", I am now sitting ahead of where I would have been had I stayed the course, and I am now in a position to put together a new portfolio of those stocks that have been overly beaten up by last week's carnage.
If tomorrow opens with a mix of results for various stocks, I can cherry-pick those that I want, and start to build a new portfolio. Ultimately, if all goes as planned, I will be ahead of where I was before I timed the market... and THAT's the bottom line that counts. There is no guarantee, but so far my strategy is working very well.
I should mention that I had honestly hoped that the market was going to plunge even more, because that would have given me an even greater advantage than the one I expect to end up with. If I buy stocks tomorrow, I will always continue with my timing strategy of avoiding significant losses, but only when I feel certain I can do so. Otherwise it would increase, instead of decrease, the levels of risk to my portfolio.
Frankly, instead of the words "timing the market"... I prefer to consider that I am simply making careful market decisions based upon my interpretation of the market and related events as I see them unfolding. I am not a pyschic or prophet... I just like to pay CLOSE attention, and I am willing to make drastic moves in and out of the market if I see it is to my advantage. If I see a big downslide ahead, I like to sell before it happens. If I see a real-time dip, I like to buy.
Enjoy your workout. I like to workout a few times a week myself, and I also walk to the beach regularly... I am lucky it's only a couple of blocks from my house.
But, I still enjoy investing in the stock market most of the time, except when it's out of whack.. and when that happens, I try to turn lemons into lemonade... and see if I can take advantage of the situation... kind of like I've been trying to do this past week or so.
I like in general the American attitude towards people and life.
That's pretty clear from your very successful effort over the past few years to involve yourself in Edmunds forums -- very much appreciated, by the way.
. . .you may (and the others in this forum) forgive me for these apparently unconnected phrases, but I am in a reflective mood these days.
By all means; I've only twice been confined for any length of time, and I think I appreciate what you're going through. Given that the mental drives the physical more than many will admit, your positive approach will continue to serve you well.
Your advanced thinking of last weeks problems was spot on. I never thought about that 3 hour advantage you have for analytics. If this were horse racing I'd want a handicap. Speaking of horse racing - remember those Secretartiat you tubes I put up that you liked. There's a Disney movie coming out in October about the horse and how the improbable ownership was obtained and what's all the nicer, my fav actress, Diane Lane, has the lead as the owner.
What a great trailer... I will make a point of seeing that film as soon as it comes out. In fact, I'll take the whole family, and make it an inspirational day.
BTW, the time zone difference puts California at a 3-hour disadvantage, because when it's 9:30 on the East coast, it's only 6:30 here in California. You East coast guys can relax, enjoy a little morning exercise, play with the wife and kids, visit your favorite coffee house, and have a couple of meetings all before 9:30. If I want to pay attention to the beginning of the market action, I have to pop out of bed and jump directly into gear much too soon. Sometimes, it's simply awful.
There's a great business story in the ownership of that horse and a rise from near failure to prosperity. So you'll enjoy it. The only bad thing is that the horse was syndicated to stud at the end of his 3 year old reign in advance (for at that time the unheard sum of $6mln) in order to repay debt so we never got to see him as a 4 year old. In fact it was this horse that started the whole business of horse breeding becoming more important than horse racing. It's now dying down thank God so maybe well see more great 4 year olds. Horses peak at 4 and Secretariat was already faster and stronger than the top 4 year olds at 3.His potential at 4 woud have been the sky. In fact after the Belmont he had no choice but to run with 4 year olds as no trainers would allow their 3 year old horses to compete with him for fear of breaking down while trying to run with him. No horse has ever come close to his fastest times, nearly 40 years later he still owns almost all his records including all 3 triple crown races and his Belmont victory in 2:24 is so incredibly fast that it is considered more unbreakable than Dimaggio's hitting streak or Chamberlain's 100 point game. In fact it's considered by many to be the most unbreakable record in all of sports. No one's come close to his Derby time either but his Preakness time has been matched. But the problem with that race is the time is in great dispute. Several folks timed him in that race at under 1:53, which would be much faster than anyone ever ran that race. The whole Preakness time for his race was and still is an issue. There were so many folks that wanted to see the Preakness because of him, that they let crowds into the infield and the crowds trampling in to that area of the racetrack damaged the official clock.
There is something about greatness that goes beyond words... but when we see greatness at its absolute very best, it is something to behold. As great as Secretariat was, it's mind-boggling to consider that his potential was even greater... unfullfilled.
It stops and makes me think of how much potential can slip away in our own lives... so often by our own doing.
Also, how sometimes we might get the chance to rise to the occassion... and sometimes we don't, in spite of the chance... but sometimes we do.
My day trader friend is up in Anchorage so he's yet another hour earlier than the West Coast. The time zone issue doesn't make it conducive to being an active trader if you aren't a morning person. I'm never awake for the morning bell here in MST.
1 - I understand your comments about no window to buy, that does make sense. 2 - I'll still disagree about short term timing overall, but I do wish you well and success!
It sounds like you are living the good life, congrats. Thanks for the vote of confidence. Carspce used to forward messages to personal email. I don't know why they don't do that anymore?
I woke up at 4:45 AM every morning for 25 years on the job. I still get up by 5 AM since I retired. I am a morning person for sure. Old habits are hard to break. I like to watch the sun come up over the mountains. I don't watch the opening bell. NO TV..... :shades:
OK... I have prepared my new portfolio and have already placed my orders to purchase at the open. My latest portfolio includes many of the same stocks I owned previously, and I dropped a few as well as added some new stocks.
For the record, overall my purchases are at noteably lower prices than when I sold, some significantly, others minor. Therefore, regardless of any next move I make, my position in stocks is at a lower cost basis, specifically due to the fact that I avoided most of the previous downturn. I say this to those of you that stated it couldn't be done.
So, it can be done, and I have done it. I timed the market, and improved my position in the market as a result, regardless of where it goes from here. Emperical evidence? LOL.
Now that all said, and PROVEN, please understand that I have no intention of doing that on a regular basis... ONLY when it is clear to me. I do not claim that I can foresee every market decline, as that would be absurd. But when I do believe that I see a major decline ahead, I am willing and compelled to take action... which is exactly what I did with the dramatic recent price shift. Further, I do not recommend this action to anyone else that isn't comfortable with it. Those of you that like to stay the course should do so. Generally, I will also stay the course, but I just can't ignore circumventing a major downslide IF I am clear that I see it in my scope. I hope I am being clear here, in case I have left any of you wondering what the heck I have done, or the nature of my investment strategy.
Also, let me tell you that I am bullish for the long run, and I purchased huge amounts of stocks this morning... truly significant amounts.
My best personal regards to all of you here on this forum, and I look forward to continuing to try and make this forum one of the best anywhere.
I genuinely hope that we can all asist each other in becoming more successful with our investments.
Usually I'm up with other matters to attend to... not the stock market. I love seeing my kids in the morning as they get ready for school, and I typically take my son to school, although it's a relatively short drive, part of which is down the Pacific Coast Highway. We watch the ocean waves for a few blocks and check out the early morning surfers.
But, recent events were a bit overwhelming and not typical. Now that I'm back in the market, I hope the market action will allow me to sit back for a while and let it ride.
I can't convince anyone that this maybe a good investment, especially our friend TM.
Ha... I admit I'm not convinced that any Lexus will prove to be a great investment... a great car perhaps, but not a great investment... but I am almost always in favor of acquiring a great car that will provide an incredible driving experience. So, from that perspective, I am supportive, and I sure wouldn't mind having the driving experience of an LF-A supercar myself.
I will wish you the best with the car when you get it, that's for sure.
I'm also glad you like this forum, so definitely stick around. We are all going to make this one of the best forums in history. Money and investing is a topic for almost everyone.
I woke up at 4:45 AM every morning for 25 years on the job. I still get up by 5 AM since I retired. I am a morning person for sure. Old habits are hard to break.
I am the opposite. I have to get up at 3:00 AM 4 days a week (not on Wednesday, Saturday and Sunday) due to my job and I hate it (getting up so early that is). I like to sleep in late.
OK... I have prepared my new portfolio and have already placed my orders to purchase at the open. My latest portfolio includes many of the same stocks I owned previously, and I dropped a few as well as added some new stocks.
For the record, overall my purchases are at noteably lower prices than when I sold, some significantly, others minor. Therefore, regardless of any next move I make, my position in stocks is at a lower cost basis, specifically due to the fact that I avoided most of the previous downturn. I say this to those of you that stated it couldn't be done.
So, it can be done, and I have done it. I timed the market, and improved my position in the market as a result, regardless of where it goes from here. Emperical evidence? LOL.
TM, your timing has been impeccable with the recent market moves. You are a "genius". There is no way I can get in and out like you do sometimes, but at least, I bought some more stocks (especially AAPL) on the big dip last week since you, Len, and I are all in agreement about the market heading a lot higher for the longer term.
My greatest accomplishment in the stock market was dumping every stock I owned (also advised friends and relatives to do so) back in the summer of 2008 and then starting to purchase stocks in the spring of 2009. I did sell most of my stocks back in November off 2009 and then started buying again a month or two later after a correction. Thus, you can see that my strategy is to try and catch the big moves. Obviously, this was a huge move last week (some based on a stupid computer error, corruption, etc.) , but other than selling my FDX, I added some some stocks. I cannot complain today. The other huge difference in our trading is that you invest a huge amount compared to mine. Therefore, I can withstand big corrections more so than yourself.
Once again, I love the market action today and sincerely hope I will not jinx it. Remember, they don't call me Mr. Jinx for no reason.
I really did good on this one, and my bottom line numbers are already looking terrific.
But you made the "mother" of all stock moves in the summer of '08... nothing may ever compare. I wish to hell I had done what you did back then. I think what we have done shows that it is best to reserve such activity for big market swings. Chasing little swings could be disastrous... and we would be better off buying on the dips.
You are right that I have a lot riding on the market, but it is relative, and I am not positioned in anything that is ultra risky, I assure you. In fact, I think my latest portfolio, which is comprised of 22 stocks, is fairly conservative and balanced. I really like it, but I will adjust it as I see necessary over time.
BTW, I've been working on a whole new strategy that I hope to start later this year or next year. I will tell you about it in the future as I put more of the pieces together. My crazy overly-ambitious goal is to start with only a very small amount of money and see if I can turn it into exactly one million dollars... This would NOT be a part of my primary portfolio, as I would NEVER expose it to such risk. Instead, I would start a totally seperate portfolio from the current one... there will be tons of risk involved. I intend to document the entire process and possibly publish it, if it is successful. If it fails, which I'm sure is very possible, I would not have lost a lot of money, and my primary portfolio will be untouched.
If I am crazy enough to do this, we're definitely talking about one helluva roller coaster ride.
BTW, I've been working on a whole new strategy that I hope to start later this year or next year. I will tell you about it in the future as I put more of the pieces together. My crazy overly-ambitious goal is to start with only a very small amount of money and see if I can turn it into exactly one million dollars... This would NOT be a part of my primary portfolio, as I would NEVER expose it to such risk. Instead, I would start a totally seperate portfolio from the current one... there will be tons of risk involved. I intend to document the entire process and possibly publish it, if it is successful. If it fails, which I'm sure is very possible, I would not have lost a lot of money, and my primary portfolio will be untouched.
I love this idea. What are you thinking for your initial investment? $50-100K or so?
The LFA will either be kept in Toronto or Sarasota when I get it in 2012. If you happened to be in either place, I would be happy to give you a ride. I'll try to contribute investment ideas within my ability. I'll share with the members here an IPO that I think will do very well in the near future.
Once again, I love the market action today and sincerely hope I will not jinx it. Remember, they don't call me Mr. Jinx for no reason.
Mr. Jinx does it again :sick: !
The market right now is "fighting" between the still potential bad news from Europe and the good news from the U.S. The fact that the Dow closed only a bit lower today is rather encouraging after the huge move up yesterday.
Comments
Y' know Steve, darts might just very well be the right approach to this crazy market.
I'm admittedly not generally a "random"-minded individual, but it might be a nice breath of fresh air... could be good to let go of the "reins" for a while, and just sit back and enjoy the ride... IF I could actually enjoy such a ride.... doubtful.
TM
Just the opposite, Cyclone. EU is the larger group linked by European treaties (including for instance Sweden and the UK), and the Eurozone encompasses those EU nations that also have the Euro as their currency.
The eurozone, officially the euro area, is an economic and monetary union (EMU) of 16 European Union (EU) member states which have adopted the euro currency as their sole legal tender. It currently consists of Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain. Eight (not including Sweden, which has a de facto opt out) other states are obliged to join the zone once they fulfill the strict entry criteria.
Eleven countries—Denmark, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania—are in the European Union (EU) but do not use the euro.
From Wikipedia
Regards,
Jose
I had to cancel my regular Monday round of golf because of rain and cold. It was 48 degrees at 9 am this morning with a very cold rain. I drove my wife to the supermarket instead and while I waited in the car I had to get out twice to catch shopping carts and keep them from hitting my car. Seems that all the ladies were on a rampage this morning and just leaving their carts to blow around the parking lot !!
Looks like our SHOCK market is at it again this morning, but this time it is a good shock !! Take care.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Regards,
Jose
Len,
Seems that you and I are still on the same page, expecting the Dow should hit 12K this year, and go beyond.
That said, I am still concerned about the market's structure and behavior, and I do believe that it is entirely possible that we will see the Dow under 10K before we see it rise to 12K.
TM
Oops! Well, I was close :surprise: . Thanks for the clarification Jose.
I see that the $dollar index has rebounded a lot from early this morning. I'm sure there is still a lot of anxiety and uncertainty about all this. I am now hoping that the stock market can absorb some bad news once in a while.
I cannot see the Fed raising interest rates substantially any time soon due to the still fragile state of the economy.
Hopefully, the fiasco of last week will indeed result in much stronger regulations in order to avoid something like that from ever happening again.
Don't count on me among those egoistic EU supporters of the world pointing and laughing at the US. :mad: I know directly the US and I like it. I have relatives there. I have American friends and visitors. I have visited schools of medicine and universities in the US and Canada. I like in general the American attitude towards people and life.
I'm (mildly and critically, though I'm not showing this here) proud of my country and the EU; but not so much as being blind about other good places in the world and in particular the US. You said once nationalism is a good thing, but I think that in order to be fair, nationalism has to be mild and comprehensive of the position of the other. We people are tribal by genetics, but peaceful and civilized by thinking.
One thing I've learned while living abroad is that it is too easy to feel rejection because of your own loneliness, and to blame for it to those bloody foreigners who are so stupid, unfair and insensitive. I've learned that aliens are not (always) guilty.
Oh, you may (and the others in this forum) forgive me for these apparently unconnected phrases, but I am in a reflective mood these days.
Regards,
Jose
Regards,
Jose
Similarly, Greece is not the entity being bailed out, banks in France and Spain, who hold the Greek debt, are actually the beneficiaries here.
The U.S. appears to be headed down a similar road in the next two or three years. The major difference is that the U.S. can print money where Greece could not. So we will always be able to pay our debts, we just have to worry about massive inflation unless we get our spending under control.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Perhaps nationalism isn't the right term, as the globalists have given it such a negative connotation...maybe national identity works better. It does need to be considerate of those around it, but at the same time not commit suicide because of the emotional demands of those others.
The aliens are seldom soley responsible for problems...but insane massimmigration that promises to make many people in Europe dwindling minorities within this century, and the belief systems brought with such immigration being a direct threat to progress and justice is indeed a problem the EU needs to address. This will end up being expensive and unsustainable, as it will not create a modern future, and the weight of social welfare required will become destructive. Really, the indigenous people with bleeding hearts who do not understand the consequences of their actions are the problem. The idea of western guilt is expensive and asinine - but so much of the continent has bought into it, especially since the 1968 movement. In time we will see more reaction against this, and a civil war status could emerge which will cost the union economically - the EU thought crime mentality will not live forever. The EU needs to be an economic framework, not a system to control other laws.
You are not wrong, it is all connected.
And on the Greek mess...I once said it would be wrong to target GS and nobody else. Now seeing how that band of economic terrorists is behind this latest drama, I am all for the entire organization being investigated and punished.
Just to let you know, I'm working this evening on a new stock portfolio. I expect to be up late tonight and early tomorrow morning. As you know, we have to get up a lot earlier on the west coast for the opening bell.
So, it is entirely possible that I will purchase some stocks tomorrow, but it will depend on my homework tonight, the futures, and on the opening activity.
I'll keep you posted.
TM
I heard about your impending purchase of the LFA. Congratulations. Could be a good investment !!
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
It's easy to time it in hindsight!
I would have thought that if Friday was a big down day, and today was a big up day, then we should have bought THIS morning, not TOMORROW morning!
Yep, pretty exciting stuff, but it will be around 2012 before I can take delivery of the beast. I can't convince anyone that this maybe a good investment, especially our friend TM. That's OK by me, especially since the dealer's GM verbally offered to buy the car at full price at the end of the 2 years mandatory lease.
How are you doing these days?
That's why I don't sweat it!
Regards,
OW
Regards,
OW
Down to 2 cars, 2006 LS 430 and a 2007 LX 470. No complaints with either. Everything we have, including our home is paid for so we are in good shape as long as the stock market doesn't go berserk !!
I sent a letter to your carspace page about the LFA but if you are like me, you never check carspace.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
I would have thought that if Friday was a big down day, and today was a big up day, then we should have bought THIS morning, not TOMORROW morning!
ABSOLUTLEY NOT! Truly no disrespect, but that's just plain WRONG!!!!!... and I will take the time to show you why, even though I am busy doing my research on my potential purchases for tomorrow.
Firstly, let me remind you that I had already posted my serious concerns about the market well BEFORE the big slide... that's not hindsight!... that was a PERFECT call. It truly was. I then sold most of my stocks at the top of the false rally, which wasn't hindsight... it was PERFECT timing... and I kept some dividend-paying stocks. I did ALL this... BEFORE the market took a nosedive. That's not hindsight.
Now, let's fast forward... As you should know, the "Greece fire" wasn't put out during the trading session on Friday. It was ironed out over the weekend. Buying THIS morning as you suggested would have been suicide, because there is no window that exists to buy before the market opens... that would be a wonderful dream come true, but it just isn't a possibility, which shows that you do not understand how the market works. The market opens with the gains already in place, so it then becomes a question of whether or not you believe the gains for the day will go even higher or retreat somewhat. I predicted an intra-day retreat, which turned out to be correct. So, BEFORE that point of retreat, the best thing to have done is to sell at the high, which I did, perfectly. That locks in the most gains, and allows for the possibility to buy back stocks as their prices retreat during the day... however, I decided to not do that today. I decided that because sometimes after a huge rally, there are stocks that settle back and become better buys the following day.
What makes the whole strategy and equation work for me is that today's gains did not completely erase the losses from last week, so I am still ahead of the position I would have been in had I simply held on! And... had there not been a weekend solution to the Greece situation, my advantage would have been even better than it already is. That's why I like to time the market when I can see it is possible. Otherwise I would not bother to do so. In addition, being mostly out of stocks, I had positioned myself to an almost zero risk level, which was still very high until a genuine solution to the "Greece fire" was put together, which happened over the weekend.
The best next opportunity for me could be tomorrow morning, although I could have played some of today's intra-day action, but I decided to sell my remaining stocks near their high for the day and wait until tomorrow.
And, that brings me to my next move. Because of my good "timing", I am now sitting ahead of where I would have been had I stayed the course, and I am now in a position to put together a new portfolio of those stocks that have been overly beaten up by last week's carnage.
If tomorrow opens with a mix of results for various stocks, I can cherry-pick those that I want, and start to build a new portfolio. Ultimately, if all goes as planned, I will be ahead of where I was before I timed the market... and THAT's the bottom line that counts. There is no guarantee, but so far my strategy is working very well.
I should mention that I had honestly hoped that the market was going to plunge even more, because that would have given me an even greater advantage than the one I expect to end up with. If I buy stocks tomorrow, I will always continue with my timing strategy of avoiding significant losses, but only when I feel certain I can do so. Otherwise it would increase, instead of decrease, the levels of risk to my portfolio.
Frankly, instead of the words "timing the market"... I prefer to consider that I am simply making careful market decisions based upon my interpretation of the market and related events as I see them unfolding. I am not a pyschic or prophet... I just like to pay CLOSE attention, and I am willing to make drastic moves in and out of the market if I see it is to my advantage. If I see a big downslide ahead, I like to sell before it happens. If I see a real-time dip, I like to buy.
I hope that explanation is helpful to you.
TM
Enjoy your workout. I like to workout a few times a week myself, and I also walk to the beach regularly... I am lucky it's only a couple of blocks from my house.
But, I still enjoy investing in the stock market most of the time, except when it's out of whack.. and when that happens, I try to turn lemons into lemonade... and see if I can take advantage of the situation... kind of like I've been trying to do this past week or so.
TM
That's pretty clear from your very successful effort over the past few years to involve yourself in Edmunds forums -- very much appreciated, by the way.
. . .you may (and the others in this forum) forgive me for these apparently unconnected phrases, but I am in a reflective mood these days.
By all means; I've only twice been confined for any length of time, and I think I appreciate what you're going through. Given that the mental drives the physical more than many will admit, your positive approach will continue to serve you well.
Your advanced thinking of last weeks problems was spot on. I never thought about that 3 hour advantage you have for analytics. If this were horse racing I'd want a handicap. Speaking of horse racing - remember those Secretartiat you tubes I put up that you liked. There's a Disney movie coming out in October about the horse and how the improbable ownership was obtained and what's all the nicer, my fav actress, Diane Lane, has the lead as the owner.
http://disney.go.com/disneypictures/secretariat/?cmp=dmov_dpic_sec_psg_title_sec- - - retariat%20movie_Extl
What a great trailer... I will make a point of seeing that film as soon as it comes out. In fact, I'll take the whole family, and make it an inspirational day.
BTW, the time zone difference puts California at a 3-hour disadvantage, because when it's 9:30 on the East coast, it's only 6:30 here in California. You East coast guys can relax, enjoy a little morning exercise, play with the wife and kids, visit your favorite coffee house, and have a couple of meetings all before 9:30. If I want to pay attention to the beginning of the market action, I have to pop out of bed and jump directly into gear much too soon. Sometimes, it's simply awful.
TM
There's a great business story in the ownership of that horse and a rise from near failure to prosperity. So you'll enjoy it. The only bad thing is that the horse was syndicated to stud at the end of his 3 year old reign in advance (for at that time the unheard sum of $6mln) in order to repay debt so we never got to see him as a 4 year old. In fact it was this horse that started the whole business of horse breeding becoming more important than horse racing. It's now dying down thank God so maybe well see more great 4 year olds. Horses peak at 4 and Secretariat was already faster and stronger than the top 4 year olds at 3.His potential at 4 woud have been the sky. In fact after the Belmont he had no choice but to run with 4 year olds as no trainers would allow their 3 year old horses to compete with him for fear of breaking down while trying to run with him. No horse has ever come close to his fastest times, nearly 40 years later he still owns almost all his records including all 3 triple crown races and his Belmont victory in 2:24 is so incredibly fast that it is considered more unbreakable than Dimaggio's hitting streak or Chamberlain's 100 point game. In fact it's considered by many to be the most unbreakable record in all of sports. No one's come close to his Derby time either but his Preakness time has been matched. But the problem with that race is the time is in great dispute. Several folks timed him in that race at under 1:53, which would be much faster than anyone ever ran that race. The whole Preakness time for his race was and still is an issue. There were so many folks that wanted to see the Preakness because of him, that they let crowds into the infield and the crowds trampling in to that area of the racetrack damaged the official clock.
It stops and makes me think of how much potential can slip away in our own lives... so often by our own doing.
Also, how sometimes we might get the chance to rise to the occassion... and sometimes we don't, in spite of the chance... but sometimes we do.
Thanks Len...
TM
TM
1 - I understand your comments about no window to buy, that does make sense.
2 - I'll still disagree about short term timing overall, but I do wish you well and success!
Carspce used to forward messages to personal email. I don't know why they don't do that anymore?
TM
OK... I have prepared my new portfolio and have already placed my orders to purchase at the open. My latest portfolio includes many of the same stocks I owned previously, and I dropped a few as well as added some new stocks.
For the record, overall my purchases are at noteably lower prices than when I sold, some significantly, others minor. Therefore, regardless of any next move I make, my position in stocks is at a lower cost basis, specifically due to the fact that I avoided most of the previous downturn. I say this to those of you that stated it couldn't be done.
So, it can be done, and I have done it. I timed the market, and improved my position in the market as a result, regardless of where it goes from here. Emperical evidence? LOL.
Now that all said, and PROVEN, please understand that I have no intention of doing that on a regular basis... ONLY when it is clear to me. I do not claim that I can foresee every market decline, as that would be absurd. But when I do believe that I see a major decline ahead, I am willing and compelled to take action... which is exactly what I did with the dramatic recent price shift. Further, I do not recommend this action to anyone else that isn't comfortable with it. Those of you that like to stay the course should do so. Generally, I will also stay the course, but I just can't ignore circumventing a major downslide IF I am clear that I see it in my scope. I hope I am being clear here, in case I have left any of you wondering what the heck I have done, or the nature of my investment strategy.
Also, let me tell you that I am bullish for the long run, and I purchased huge amounts of stocks this morning... truly significant amounts.
My best personal regards to all of you here on this forum, and I look forward to continuing to try and make this forum one of the best anywhere.
I genuinely hope that we can all asist each other in becoming more successful with our investments.
TM
But, recent events were a bit overwhelming and not typical. Now that I'm back in the market, I hope the market action will allow me to sit back for a while and let it ride.
TM
Ha... I admit I'm not convinced that any Lexus will prove to be a great investment... a great car perhaps, but not a great investment... but I am almost always in favor of acquiring a great car that will provide an incredible driving experience. So, from that perspective, I am supportive, and I sure wouldn't mind having the driving experience of an LF-A supercar myself.
I will wish you the best with the car when you get it, that's for sure.
I'm also glad you like this forum, so definitely stick around. We are all going to make this one of the best forums in history. Money and investing is a topic for almost everyone.
TM
Tag, I must say it is incredibly ironic what stock your initials represent.
If I told you my real-life initials... you would really be surprised.
TM
Are you sure you don't have it backwards on who has a time advantage? for the stock market? :surprise:
I am the opposite. I have to get up at 3:00 AM 4 days a week (not on Wednesday, Saturday and Sunday) due to my job and I hate it (getting up so early that is). I like to sleep in late.
For the record, overall my purchases are at noteably lower prices than when I sold, some significantly, others minor. Therefore, regardless of any next move I make, my position in stocks is at a lower cost basis, specifically due to the fact that I avoided most of the previous downturn. I say this to those of you that stated it couldn't be done.
So, it can be done, and I have done it. I timed the market, and improved my position in the market as a result, regardless of where it goes from here. Emperical evidence? LOL.
TM, your timing has been impeccable with the recent market moves. You are a "genius". There is no way I can get in and out like you do sometimes, but at least, I bought some more stocks (especially AAPL) on the big dip last week since you, Len, and I are all in agreement about the market heading a lot higher for the longer term.
My greatest accomplishment in the stock market was dumping every stock I owned (also advised friends and relatives to do so) back in the summer of 2008 and then starting to purchase stocks in the spring of 2009. I did sell most of my stocks back in November off 2009 and then started buying again a month or two later after a correction. Thus, you can see that my strategy is to try and catch the big moves. Obviously, this was a huge move last week (some based on a stupid computer error, corruption, etc.) , but other than selling my FDX, I added some some stocks. I cannot complain today. The other huge difference in our trading is that you invest a huge amount compared to mine. Therefore, I can withstand big corrections more so than yourself.
Once again, I love the market action today and sincerely hope I will not jinx it. Remember, they don't call me Mr. Jinx for no reason.
I really did good on this one, and my bottom line numbers are already looking terrific.
But you made the "mother" of all stock moves in the summer of '08... nothing may ever compare. I wish to hell I had done what you did back then. I think what we have done shows that it is best to reserve such activity for big market swings. Chasing little swings could be disastrous... and we would be better off buying on the dips.
You are right that I have a lot riding on the market, but it is relative, and I am not positioned in anything that is ultra risky, I assure you. In fact, I think my latest portfolio, which is comprised of 22 stocks, is fairly conservative and balanced. I really like it, but I will adjust it as I see necessary over time.
BTW, I've been working on a whole new strategy that I hope to start later this year or next year. I will tell you about it in the future as I put more of the pieces together. My crazy overly-ambitious goal is to start with only a very small amount of money and see if I can turn it into exactly one million dollars... This would NOT be a part of my primary portfolio, as I would NEVER expose it to such risk. Instead, I would start a totally seperate portfolio from the current one... there will be tons of risk involved. I intend to document the entire process and possibly publish it, if it is successful. If it fails, which I'm sure is very possible, I would not have lost a lot of money, and my primary portfolio will be untouched.
If I am crazy enough to do this, we're definitely talking about one helluva roller coaster ride.
TM
I love this idea. What are you thinking for your initial investment? $50-100K or so?
TM
Regards,
Jose
I'll try to contribute investment ideas within my ability. I'll share with the members here an IPO that I think will do very well in the near future.
TM
Mr. Jinx does it again :sick: !
The market right now is "fighting" between the still potential bad news from Europe and the good news from the U.S. The fact that the Dow closed only a bit lower today is rather encouraging after the huge move up yesterday.