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I went to obsidian wilh a parchment interior and the long wheel base AWD of course. Trunk is 18'. Basically about an 81K sticker. What's your color. My current color is the smokey granite with the light gray interior and I thought you also had the smokey granite. I love both interior and exterior colors but we didn't want a repeat of the same colors. I think the car looks best with the teleios wheels and either the black or smokey granite color. Neither the LS or S in a lighter color interests me unless we are talking white.
BTW - based on our orders that are lining up, the advertising sector is in a major recovery stage, and we will likely have our biggest year ever. Part of my optimism is based on the economic climate of my industry plus the fact that local business - everything from restaurants to contractors are way up, almost to pre-crash levels. In our business we sell on a subscription basis with most paying up front so from a cash standpoint a sale in September hits the full year the same as a sale in January. On an accrual basis though we only get 3-4 months of revenue on accrual vs a whole year in cash from a September sale. One thing I'm real happy about is all the portable deposit machines that now exist in lieu of lockbox. When money went to the lockbox I had no choice on cash revenue. But now all checks come to the office and we read them into the bank via the deposit machines. So now we can again choose to push cash revenue off if it gets too high or if a client pays us in January for last years November or December bill and December for late this years like bills.
Big difference is that C will buy up a ton of shares with their cash as loans come back up in value. Remember the company is holding a boatload of cash in reserve for loans and a real estate market that is improving. This cash is cut off from the world right now but it w'ont stay that way. They will take a lot of shares off the market by, for all intent and purposes, investing in themselves. So C could easily quadruple as the dilution goes away and earnings per share come wap up in value. So you need to take that into equation. If C was not going to buy back their shares then I'd tend to agree. But they will. In this one instance you can't just go by market cap. C stock can double without much change in market cap.
The fall has happened so swiftly that I d'ont think it's caught up yet.
It sure does not take that long when the prices go up !!
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Regards,
OW
Thanks Tony! If this market does not start to behave in a more rational manner the next few weeks, some of my past good decisions will have been wasted. I plan to stay with the great majority of my stocks through these gyrations.
Len sure sounds convincing about Citigroup. I sold it for a small loss at $4.14, but maybe I should consider buying it again soon.
I've got 10,000 shares for about 14,000 invested. I originally bought 10,000 for 1.01 and then sold off 3,000 to get almost all of my initial $10K back. Then I ended up buying back those 3,000 shares.
What do you think about BAC?
In the long term you can predict the tides, but in the short term you can't predict the size of the next wave or swell....
Len's prediction for lower oil prices last year should have been spot on, but the market wasn't acting in a typical fashion. Sure, it's always got some irrational behavior to it, but sometimes it gets waaaaay beyond the fundamentals and it goes into extreme out-of-whack behavior... the infamous "irrational exhuberance" for example, or other severe modes of irrationality that ultimately cause it to behave in ways that are not within its more typical parameters. I use Len as an example, because historically, his predictions have been accurate more often than average, IMO. And don't forget Charlie... he timed the huge financial meltdown!... he got out just before it happened!... one of the most brilliant timing moves anyone here has ever done.
When the market gets too far out-of-whack, I don't mess with it. But more typically, I, and others here as well, feel confident enough to make reasonable predictions, and have reasonable expectations. For me personally, it has been during those more typical times (still filled with some nominal irrationality, as you suggest) that I have had my best sense of the market's behavior and could implement some timing strategy by selling at highs and buying at lows with results that were higher than the market's average.
Currently, I am sitting with cash on the sidelines, (other than my fixed instrument part of my portfolio) and I am waaaay ahead of the game. Now, if I were to enter the market at one of these wild selloffs, I would technically have once again timed the market to my advantage, but frankly I am not really looking to do that right now...... well, that is unless we get a huge meltdown that leaves me with a massive opportunity that I simply cannot resist.
You seem kind of bent on trying to prove that timing can't work, when I and others have already proved otherwise. Perhaps it doesn't work for YOU and many others, but don't suggest that it can't work for everyone else. Heck, I've made a lot of money by timing a few key trades. And that's the very cool thing about timing... It doesn't take but a few really good timing moves to make (or save) a bundle.
TM
I have no doubt that timing has worked for many people - just as many people have won jackpots in slot machines. It's just that for the majority of people who attempt it, it is a losing game. YMMV. Actual market data proves both of us correct - many market timers make money in relatively few transactions, but few can do it with any reliability. I've just seen so many posts that seem to indicate it is expected that people can time with any assurance, and I (and many studies) assert that this is not the case over the long haul. Just as the gambler who wins the jackpot usually loses if they play 1000 times. But they can win in one pull.
Yes, they were slow to rise here as well, but I have never seen it this slow to drop. The 89 octane should now be priced at about $2.35-2.40 instead of $2.67. BTW, I have been using 10% ethanol blend (89 octane) and my car has been running just great. Ethanol is 30 cents per gallon cheaper than premium here. I see no reason to go with premium since I have tried both the first year I owned the car and could not detect any noticeable difference in the way the car runs or on the gas mileage.
I love it when you are optimistic about the economy and I am long stocks. It re-enforces my conviction that we will be in good shape over the long haul. However, this European crap is definitely becoming more bothersome and since it is now much more of a global economy than in past years, being long stocks could blow up in our faces. But, as I stated before, I am not betting the farm that's for sure.
SEC, exchanges mull tight circuit breakers: sources
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On Tuesday May 18, 2010, 1:52 am EDT
NEW YORK/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. regulators and exchanges are considering market-wide circuit breakers that would temporarily stop trading when it falls five percent, two sources familiar with the talks said on Monday.
The Securities and Exchange Commission and major exchanges, responding to the severe stock market plunge on May 6, could detail the changes later on Monday or on Tuesday. There are already broad circuit breakers in place, but those were not tripped in the plunge.
The proposal being considered would halt trading for various time frames when the broader market falls 5 percent, 10 percent and 20 percent, said the sources, meaning the adjustment would closely mirror a proposal by exchange operator Nasdaq OMX Group Inc.
The sources did not want to be named because the talks are private.
The SEC is also looking at other thresholds that would slow or stop trading for a period, although those details were unclear, one source said. New breakers based on individual stock movements are also expected.
(Reporting by Jonathan Spicer and Rachelle Younglai; editing by Andre Grenon)
The more high frequency trading goes unregulated the less transparent the market gets and in that situation there's going to be the notion to sell and ask questions later to a greater power than we've ever seen. The fact that the market can plunge 1,000 points in minutes and then come right back is all the evidence in the world we need as proof. So timing a market is going to get more and more difficult and the periods of capitulation and bounce back are going to get shorter and shorter. Theoretically one just happened in 10-20 minutes on May 6th. Now you can argue that we've had this in the past. 1987's black monday is a prime example. But in the current technology age fear coupled with excessive high frequency trades and lightning quick buy-sell execution in micro-seconds is a scary thought. Contrast May 6th with 19 billion shares traded to Black monday's 600mln. One thing I've learned from May 6th is to put buys in on desirable stocks at about 40% below current prices. This might be the new way to invest actually. Unless regulation kicks in to check high frequency trades I expect that we'll see this happen again. Just think of what bad news from China will do to an environment like this.
BTW - had dinner with my buddy and he said a big problem from May 6th is not just finding the orders that triggered the collapse, but that when you find them you also find that the a whole domino series of trades got made and were unwound in seconds off those trades. So as much as we've read that all shares traded under 60% of pre-existing value were cancelled, it's not completely true. If someone bought at that low level and then sold minutes later many legitimate trades would also have to be cancelled. Imagine if one of us bought ACN at a dime and then minutes later traded it on the rise at 30 bucks (this seems so surreal in just describing it) while buying something else and then minutes later selling that and buying something else and then minutes later repeating the same sequence. This is what happened with high frequency trade business units that didn't shut down. No exchange has an answer on how to deal with this, as I'm sure that the sequential trades were all legit. It's like trying to redo the event and only make the initial two cars in a 100 fender bender accident the damaged vehicles. It's also as if you had a game of musical chairs playing at a rate of speed of 1000X. Again - this isn't investing, it's a pure game and the only ones that know what's going on are the computers and to them it's nothing but mathematical algorithms.
I agree that something drastic needs to be done to stop this sort of madness.
That said, I will tell you and Charlie that I am much closer to initiating a day-trading strategy that will attempt to take advantage of market swings. I will only be working with small amounts of money and shares, as this will no doubt be risky... but I see this as one way to potentially profit from this crazy market. I was going to wait until later in the year or even next year, but the current swings are hard to resist for this type of strategy.
In addition to that... and totally separate... I think Charlie made a good point when he suggested that if I had not invested such large amounts of money in the equities, I would not have been as concerned about the risks that are associated with the current market. So... I am going to consider creating a much, much smaller portfolio... smaller in terms of number of stocks and overall value... I think it's worth consideration. Again, this would be separate and in addition to the day-trading strategy that I am also considering.
It's amazing that the computer trading has reached this level, but it was inevitable, IMO. I don't see any effective or realistic restrictions that would ever be placed to limit it... other than to have circuit breakers in place that would slow down any large-scale selloffs... for example at 5%, 10%, 20% type of thing.
TM
I'm very similar to Charlie in that at most times I am not a huge investor in the market. So I'll tend to ride out valleys so long as I think the longer term is stable and growing.
Did I hear about 45 minutes ago that the Germans will be banning short selling? If so, isn't this a good thing for the market in general? However, our stock market has tanked after this rumor (may indeed be fact) came out. I am SO confused
But, the Chinese government has a whole lot under its control that gives it a major advantage over other countries that historically have NEVER been able to successfully manage the similar situation that China faces... which means that this could be the first time EVER that a country has been able to put the proper brakes on its overheated economic growth, control inflation, and contain its asset bubble (including real estate)... and do all these things SIMULTANEOUSLY without causing its economy and stock market to go into the skids. And, we won't really know the outcome of the Chinese government's efforts for a while yet... which leaves all of us in a state of limbo and markets in a state of higher volatility due to the uncertainty.
And, if that isn't enough, I still think there are some potential snakes in the grass that could emerge from Europe, perhaps such as the one you just posted.
Beyond that, there are still domestic issues that are not yet resolved.
Add 'em all up, and you get a mess. It's no wonder the market can't find itself any genuine grip. Yet, in spite of all of the things that are happening, our market is trying to hang in there.
If Europe and especially China actually get a genuine handle on their problems, then be ready for our stock market to soar to the moon.
Trust me... I will pounce if/when that scope of opportunity becomes genuine. In the meantime, given all the potential for another meltdown, I am patiently observing carefully.
TM
I just signed and faxed some papers regarding my day-trading strategy to my broker friend. I guess he and his firm want it understood that all the responsibility for this crazy idea is mine alone.
Anyway, I will be armed and dangerous probably before the end of this week. I'll let you know when I start my strategy.
I sure hope I don't cause the Dow to drop 1,000 pts. :P
TM
While I would agree with that statement, I would also say that someone designed those computers to do exactly what they are doing. Computers are necessary but those super fast computers have no place in the market and IMO should be banned. To me, those people are simply cheating !!
You can bet that a casino would not let a computer play blackjack !!
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
You make a great point. The computers are the equivalent of card counting. When I say the folks d'ont know what's being traded - read up to yesterdays posts where the owner of one of the trading firms stated he never even heard of a company he was trading in and out of, or I should say his computers are trading in and out of. We are now trading almost purely on technical analysis as the majority of trades (wouldn't be surprised if it's 70%+ of all trades) each day are high frequency trades. I also think you get these gloom and doom scenarios of the future based on technical analysis of technical trades. Technical anlysis of real trades works. Technical anlysis of technical trading is simply a compounding factor and literally is worthless IMO in LT predictions.
Tag will have his hands full trying to out think and beat these computers to the punch. Ever try to beat even a mediocre computer at chess?
For regular investors it is all guesswork at this point. You might as well throw a dart. I am more or less standing pat on my bonds and dividend stocks.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
They are banning naked short selling in select securities, not all short selling and not all naked short selling. For the life of me I have never understood why any governmnt would allow naked short selling.
Smart, IMO.
Tag will have his hands full trying to out think and beat these computers to the punch.
No... I won't even try. I'll be using a totally independent approach that won't rely on outwitting any of those computers.
That said, you might be interested to know that over this past weekend I did a little research into acquiring some of that computerized trading software myself. It isn't as expensive as I had thought it would be, although the really powerful stuff gets a little pricey, and there are annual fees as well as monthly fees involved. Anyway, I've decided against it, for now. I'm just going to try using my own technique and see how it goes.
But, if I discover that I am indeed pitted against those computers, having brought a pocket knife to a sword fight... then it might be time to even the odds and buy the sword. Or, smarter yet, just walk away entirely while I still have my money.
edit: regarding this ban in Germany of naked short selling that Charlie and Len have been posting about... I just want to state for the record that I have never sold any stocks while I was naked, but I confess I have sold some while I was in my shorts.
So sorry, I know that is ridiculous, and has nothing to do with the true meaning... but I just couldn't resist.
TM
I guess we all notice the constant `hawking` of stocks...It is a gamblers market for sure, and the brokers just want a trade and the revenue that goes with it...Not necessarily stable advice with a longer term horizion---in fact just the opposite...It will continue imo, so we just have to make our own decisions and hope the Goldmans don`t by chance stumble across us and blow what ever out the water, before moving on A sad situation I hope is controlled eventually....Tony
Great post Tony and I agree with you.
My daytrader friend mostly trades options, and keeps an Excel sheet he wrote. For every stock he tracks the break even point (if not exercised), the call premium, trade costs, stock appreciation and has this zone thing with the the strike price and break even point. He's always talking about the "ice cube melting" as the exercise dates come around. That's about the time my eyes really glaze over.
For the rest of it (trading, real time quotes, etc.) he uses StreetSmart from Schwab. I think his is a downloadable version that's different from the online one.
I'd have about as much luck trying to keep up with all that as I would flying near an ash cloud and living to tell about it. :P
Hopefully, in the future, I will have some good progress reports to talk about... and I can say, "I made a bundle!"
Or, I might have to say... "It didn't work... I blew it!"
We'll see.
TM
My friend loves making money and is always scheming and wheeling and dealing. It keeps piling up but he drives an old truck and lives in the basement of his office. I keep telling him that since he mostly just enjoys the chase, I could take care of the disbursement part. :shades:
But he's all about "keeping score" based on the size of his bank account. Luckily his wife left him 35 years ago before they had kids.
TM
He must have been an Alaskan bush pilot. They are like that. Living in a basement is also a trait you see a lot of up there.
I'm with you on the stock trading. I get excited every now and again about it. Then go off on something else. I am still trying to dilute my way Citigroup. I think I will buy another 1000 shares this morning. I don't see it going too much further down. It I get the average to $4 and wait, it will come back up, won't it. :sick:
But, how low will it go? Is it near the bottom? Or is there a lot more downside ahead? Anyone here care to take a guess?
TM
EDIT:
I couldn't resist buying some Citigroup this morning! It is the ONLY stock I now own.
I notice you bought some C today.
Even though I bought some Citi shares, I actually want to see the price go further down so I can buy a little more at an even better price. In fact, I have an order right now at a lower price.
Anyway, just doing a little fishing.
TM
I miss those Alaskans. :shades:
And if I had some loose cash, I'd buy some more Citi too.
BTW - was watching St Elmo's Fire the other day and saw a scene next to a gas station with prices of .73, .76 and .79 for 87-89-93 grade gas respectively. Interesting that there was only a 6 cents spread from 87 to 93 back then.
I have never bought futures, how would these play into exchange rates at certain intervals?
Deep inside though Bernanke has to be smiling a bit. Despite the fact that a bad Euro puts pressure on the world markets Bernanke has been aghast at some of the moves of the EU to keep the Euro artificially high through the crisis. We always worry about markets being controlled but ultimately fundamentals will force their day in court.
If interest rates are raised here too soon, it will be a prescription for prolonged economic hardship, and could stall the recovery. Regardless of how the Fed wants to slice it, raising rates too soon could seriously cripple the fragile housing market's recovery. It would make business loans more expensive, and impart a general slowdown to an economy that has just barely gotten off the ground.
And, given that there is no inflation threat, raising rates simply has no merit.
So, if the Fed wants to raise rates as you suggest what's the motivation? Interest on the debt?... ha!
But, there is actually something that our brilliant leaders have in mind for us... and that's tax increases... yet another idiotic economic depressant.
What is wrong with our President and Congress that they actually believe it is better to raise taxes instead of cutting out their wasteful spending? Heck, what they actually want is to raise taxes so that they can spend even MORE!
Let's face it, we love our country but our government is out-of-whack and sold-out to special interests, our markets are out-of-whack, and our economy is out-of-whack... with a massive percentage of our fellow Americans out of a job, a depressed housing market, twisted tax policies, and a massive obscene national debt. Then factor in the drug problem, the crime problem, health care problems, diseases (such as diabetes, obesity, aids, cancer, ADD, upcoming flu pandemic), over 50% divorce rate, the unbelievable and massive number of illegal aliens, national security issues, dependence on foreign oil & lack of comprehensive energy policy, crumbling infrastructure, the nuclear threat, poisoning our own environment... and the picture gets even uglier.
Thank God for Major League Baseball.
TM
You hit the nail on the head. We are in line to be "Greece" someday. The problem with most Politicians is that they can't say NO to anything . Most have never had to manage a true P&L and have no understanding of the relationship between revenue generation and spending. They are very short-sighted people focused on the next election cycle who want to spend money to show their constituants how much thay can bring back home, it is a mess. We need Term Limits.
That being said - I also own a bunch of C, most of it is underwater, I may buy more but I don't know. I am going to buy some more GE and possibly MSFT at these levels.
All indications show that California is in much the same condition as Greece. The state is the largest employer. Average University of CA professor making about $250k per year, while a TA actually teaches the class. The CTA (teachers union) is the strongest in the state. We are wasting billions on education and have little to show for it. No CEO in their right mind would expand in or move to CA. All that is left is for the workers to start rioting along with the illegals. My advice is don't invest in CA bonds.
No - I think the Fed (mainly Bernanke) wants to hold off on raising rates till as late as possible. What had worried me was too weak of a dollar would require a rate hike to support it too early and our supposed friends at the EU were trying to weaken the dollar at every turn. A strengthening dollar reduces inflation threats here as commodities get cheaper for us. I've never been worried about inflation but you have hawks in that fed that worry about a piece of dust on the floor causing inflation.So I agree the motivation to raise rates eases and could be put further off than later this year now and personally I think later this year is too early.
Re Obama - the more money we can keep out of his hands the better. A tax hike would hurt the economy and that guy will go find the first ocean he can throw the money into. Financially speaking this is the most irresponsible President I ever saw and I'd cringe at the damage he'll do if he ever gets elected again. I hope Greece opened his eyes but I doubt it. And I worry that the last person he talks to will affect his judment on everything. He was ready to walk from healthcare and Pelosi talked him out of it. He gave up on the terrorist trials in NYC after folks here told him it would put lower Manhattan on lockdown but then Holder talked him back into it again and now the jury is out on it again. He wants more money thru taxes for unending government spending that will kill off the economy and bring a Greece situation on us and the last thing in the world I think of him is being a true leader. Lots of stories here also that NYC lost homeland money because other states got bribed to pass the Healthcare bill. I'd have been embarrassed as hell if I were Obama and 2 weeks after a potentially lethal terrorist strike occurred in Times Square there was an announcement (for decisions made before the attempt) that NYC funds from homeland security were reduced while regions of the country that would be a one in a million chance of a terrorist strike got increased. D'ont get me started on Obama or I can write for a day. Charlie and I are agreeable on almost everything but Obama most certainly isn't one of them.
A tax hike would hurt the economy and that guy will go find the first ocean he can throw the money into.
Financially speaking this is the most irresponsible President I ever saw
I'd cringe at the damage he'll do if he ever gets elected again.
He wants more money thru taxes for unending government spending that will kill off the economy
So... I can tell that you really like Obama, huh? LOL.
Seriously... I agree with you... and we are on the brink of a major catastrophe.
I really believe that Obama means to do well... He is a good-hearted individual... but he has already proven that he does not have what it takes to put this country on the right track. It is a tragedy of epic proportion, given the scope of serious domestic and global issues confronting all of us at this time in history.
It is historically rare that any President is ever given such a huge window of opportunity... yet, we are in a horrible state of affairs that only gets worse. The supposedly improving economic data is irrelevant to the fundamental and deep damage that he is putting into place... it will all implode at some point... as Greece has so clearly proven.
It is painful to see our wonderful country go through this, as well as the rest of the world. I honestly pray for all of us. What a horrible shame... because the machine that is in place is creating, piece by piece, the worst that is yet to come.
TM