The fact that the Dow closed only a bit lower today is rather encouraging after the huge move up yesterday.
Charlie,
You did not jinx the market today. I am actually pleased with the day's action. That's a whole lot of gains to hold on to. The Dow is UP from where it opened the day, and from where I purchased back into the market. More significantly, the Nasdaq performed even better, and was up nicely from its open. I made nice gains today, and you are right that it is a tug of war, but in the end... we will win! The naysayers will be proven wrong.
It could be argued that our stock market is probably the best investment choice right now in the entire world... and it's an incredible time to invest, as so much growth and innovation lies ahead. Our economy could potentially be on its way to a major upswing over the next few years. Minimum inflation and record low interest rates certainly don't hurt either.
Today's details: 18 of my 22 stocks made gains for me today, some very nicely... the other 4 were down slightly.
Your history of posts here and in the LL forum have documented that your anticipated acquisition of the Lexus LF-A is in part with consideration of its collectible and investment value. Because of that, it is not necessary to post about it in the LL forum, and you can enjoy posting about it here instead. That forum has turned into an Audi forum for the most part... not to say that is wrong, but it has totally lost many posters interest.as a result.
Discussing automobiles with regards to their "investment" value is a natural for this forum. The LF-A's investment value has already proven itself to be an interesting topic worthy of discussion.
Perhaps you might consider the investment and/or collectible value of THIS car: The 2011 Porsche 911 GT2 RS, the fastest, most-powerful street-legal Porsche ever produced in the history of Porsche!
Consider that there will be only 500 of them manufactured, which is the same number as the LF-A units. Again, it will be the fastest, most-powerful street-legal Porsche ever produced in the history of Porsche. And... get this!!... the price of this monster will be only HALF that of the LF-A!! And, unlike the 918 Spyder, there is no hybrid technology that you are concerned about. I am covinced that this would be a better investment.
That is a beauty and would be my choice. I have always loved the 911 since they first came out. I don't see any hybrid as a collectible. Too many parts to deteriorate just parked in the garage. Save the hybrids for daily commuting. I am sure the LF-A will have buyers. Not in my league. I can't even get my wife to buy me a couple year old Carrera.
It would be extremely hard to own that car and not drive it very much for fear of messing up your investment !!
Heck yes.
The whole idea of investing in a car seems impossible to me anyway. I can't imagine buying a car as an investment, and when he brought that idea up in the LL, I was honestly kind of negative on the idea. I just don't see the LF-A being worth that kind of money... now, or ever. There is no pedigree behind it. That's why I think the Porsche is a much better bet... and the entry ticket is half price by comparison.
Porsche has proved itself at auctions to be a better possibility of being worth a lot of money one day.
All that said, I agree with you, and I could never do it. I wouldn't even want to insure the damned thing, and I'd be so afraid someone would ding it. And if they did, I'd probably have to kill them. So, no... not for me.
The LFA is coming in at like 375K rather than 490K isn't it? Not that I would spend either amount, nor the 245K of the Porsche. If I wanted a racy car and had money to blow, I'd buy a SLS and spend the rest on some fun cheaper cars. I don't find the LFA to be attractive, personally.
I think the LFA has a chance to hold some value via speculation, like Ferraris around 1989. However, there will probably be a game to play in looking for the right time to dump it, as by 1992 those Ferrari values had collapsed.
It's hard to go off topic on a car space board with this post but here goes. I'm going to re-up on a new LS460L AWD lease and take the Lexus 6 month early exit of my current lease. The price drops $225 a month and the math was just too compelling to pass up. I love the S-class but it'll have to wait 3 years and by then a new model may be out. Besides I mainly drive the GL these days as the car is predominantly driven by my wife. Tag, the GL has been flawless and I love it. I'm not sure I can give up the GL. I may buy it outright or just lease another one. I have no interest in Audi or BMW unless I'm looking at a 3 vs A4 vs G car. Had my wife been willing I'd have completed the lease and went S-class hybrid. But my wife insists she wants AWD so that made it be LS460L vs S550. If Lexus didn't have the early termination I'd have gone with the S but the math was overwhelmingly in favor of the LS460L to the point it was impossible to pass up. But Tag, MB is starting to make inroads on me and may hook me before too much longer. Within the next 5 years, God willing and assuming everything stays the course in business I see an S-classs and an SL in my garage.
I'm not sure I can give up the GL. I may buy it outright or just lease another one
I test drove a GL320 CDI in 2007. It was used and they wanted more than new price in CA for the diesel. So I ended up with a Sequoia, which is OK. Do you have the GL450? I would have a hard time going back to a sedan after so many years in SUVs. I hate driving my wife's LS400, though it really is a nice old car. Hard for my old back to get out of.
Yes GL450 and the nice surprise is that it gets better gas mileage than the sticker said it would. I often get 19-20mpg on my highway runs back and forth to my office - 65 miles away. MB really hit the mark with this SUV.
It's amazing how many early 1990's LS 400's I still see on the road locally.
I am selling my BMW... so I agree with you about BMW and Audi.
GL is the best SUV out there... I argued hard for its defense, back in the good old days. You remember.
Fortunately right now, I'm not interested in cars all that much, and I suppose I would prefer to own a hybrid or electric vehicle or something that feels it is a step towards the future and uses less gasoline.
I currently drive the JAG (note the initials Len ) and I will probably trade it in within a year or two on something economical. I just can't justify spending too much money on cars any more... especially given the way I wasted a bloody fortune for all those years.
I think your decision to get the LS460 AWD is spot on. Your wife will be happy, and you will be rewarded for that.
Market today opened with my buying opportunity, so I'm back in.
My wife bought one of the first to hit San Diego in 1989. It still runs very well. Always garaged and just turned 100k miles. Hate to give it away unless someone in the family needs a nice car. It is just hard to get out of for my aching back. I like both the ML and GL. A friend gets near 30 on the highway with his diesel GL.
I don't like the appearance of the LF-A either, and I do not believe it will be a good investment. But I still wish 2001gs430 the best of luck with it.
If I was looking for a collectible, and I was willing to blow a bunch of dough on a car like that, I'd get that 2011 Porsche 911 GT2 RS, the fastest, most-powerful street-legal Porsche ever produced in the history of Porsche as the "collectible", cover it up, and then with the extra money I saved by not getting the Lexus, I'd also get a Louts Exige or a GT-R for the "fun" factor.
Darn it, I'd better make my investments (not the LFA), and my business grow quicker in order to get one of these babies. I will start a collection of supercars.
Seriously, I am past the idea of buying the LFA as an investment. My old posts on this topic in LL were made when my stock portfolio was not supercharged, and I have not started my new business then. My financial situation is looking better than ever, so being able to grab a rare Lexus is just purely a bonus for me.
About this 911 GT2 RS, is it a track vehicle in disguise? I've read that previous GT2 was just that. It's performance stats are almost identical to the LFA's. Also, Lexus's propaganda has me believed that the LFA is a super star on the tracks, and a luxurious Lexus car on the roads. This is very important to me because I want to enjoy the car for the 99% of the time that I don't take it to a track.
About this 911 GT2 RS, is it a track vehicle in disguise? I've read that previous GT2 was just that.
I would think so. Any car, including that Porsche, that can perform to that extreme is going to be a track car at its core. Lexus won't fool too many into believing that the LF-A can run on a track with the very best of them, and then drive around town like an LS460.
...the LFA is a super star on the tracks, and a luxurious Lexus car on the roads. This is very important to me because I want to enjoy the car for the 99% of the time that I don't take it to a track.
You want your cake and eat it too. We all do. But then there's this thing called "reality" that seems to get in the way.
My old posts on this topic in LL were made when my stock portfolio was not supercharged, and I have not started my new business then. My financial situation is looking better than ever, so being able to grab a rare Lexus is just purely a bonus for me.
GL is the best SUV out there... I argued hard for its defense, back in the good old days. You remember.
Yes I remember it very well and you were dead right. When I was in the process of negotiatng and leasing it the sales guy insisted I drive an E-class first and then the GL. He said the GL was basically made off of a stretched E-class frame and he wanted me to feel the similarity. I never checked on that but basically I saw his point in the drive of both vehicles but to me the GL rode more plushier than the E, more like a less refined S-class to me and when I drove it I actually thought about your post and said to myself how accurate it was. Now I also love the LX but with the GL out there, and at a cheaper price, great styling and sportier handling there's no reason to even consider the LX. Also the GL is a big vehicle but it's nimble and fast so you almost never think it is as large as it is while you are driving it. I do see what you pointed out all along - that the MB cars can ride just as plush as Lexus, but have that superior tautness in handling. I'm liking the MB brand more and more everyday. But like you my overall interest in cars is waning.
Help me out here. No matter what I do, I can't shake this uncomfortable feeling about the market. Sure, I know I played the recent events with some successful timing strategy, but this is deeper than that.
The point is that I'm back in the market, and even though I should be sitting back and being patient, I keep getting this damned feeling that I should not be in the stock market at this time in history... like there is something terrible going to happen. It's really messing me up, because even though there are a lot of fundamental reasons to be in the market right now, I can't ignore that there are some strange, irrational, and highly-complicated domestic and global events that do not seem like they can be easily resolved. And, par for the course, the financial "experts" have many different opinions about what has been happening as well as their goofy predictions... and bottom line is that they don't have a clue.
It's as if the world has reached a level of overload, and a point of necessary reconciliation of some sort. It's difficult to explain my concerns, but I can not help but wonder how the world economies can truly function properly when there is now so much dysfunctional global political and financial interaction throughout the world.
How can our markets be expected to behave in any healthy manner under these insane global conditions? Shouldn't we really be switching gears to "preservation of capital" as the smart mode of operation? Y'know, before it's too late. Aren't we all being a bit too complacent?
Ask yourself, how much upside potential might be left? But, then consider how much downside is possible. Doesn' that leave all of us at unacceptable risk levels?
Are you buying the actual shares of companies in your portfolio? If yes, then you should consider some equivalent options strategies. I am sure you know that your potential losses are limited with most strategies, unless you gambled on selling naked calls/puts.
I think it will be closer to a GTR, maybe a little heavier and softer feeling, certainly with a suspension adjustable for your every whim.
This is my prediction - I don't see them appreciating like a McLaren F1 or something - the Lexus name is not so embraced outside of this part of the world, and it is an odd looking car...but I do think there will be enough demand to keep depreciation in check. Like you mentioned, you already have an offer to buy it when that weird lease period is over. It will eventually depreciate, but not steeply.
Shares... that's the arrangement I have with my broker that allows me unlimited trading without any fees.
I generally don't want to move in and out of the market too much anyway... it's too risky to do so. I know we've had a lot of discussion about timing the market and all of that, but my general approach is to hold stocks for a reasonable amount of time, and only make changes as necessary. It just so happened that it became necessary recently, so there was a lot of attention to it.
Current conditions are more challenging, more complicated , and much more difficult to analyze.
Regardless of my market anxiety, I am absolutely bullish on the US stock market. It blows my mind how there are so-called experts out there calling for a 5-6K Dow... that's nuts, IMO. I'm still looking forward to 12K in the not-too-distant future.
My main concern with the overall financial condition right now is inflation. I can't seem to bring myself to buy gold because it seems that you buy at retail and always have to sell wholesale...but it is still tempting.
If we keep up the insane spending of money that we don't have we could end up like Greece in 2 or 3 years. The difference being that we can print money to pay our debts and Greece could not. Thus my fears about inflation...or even the worst of both worlds, stagflation.
I believe you are spot on with the assessment of short/medium term value of the LFA. However, who knows what its value will be in 20 years when I reached my official retirement age ( I hope I won't have to work until then).
But my wife insists she wants AWD so that made it be LS460L vs S550. If Lexus didn't have the early termination I'd have gone with the S but the math was overwhelmingly in favor of the LS460L to the point it was impossible to pass up.
You have to please the wife no matter what ! $225 less per month on a new lease sounds like a great deal. I look forward to the day when I will also be driving an AWD LS or an AWD MB, I will never go with a RWD again in this climate.
Btw, if by some chance you experience driver's side window area wind noise with the new LS, there IS a solution. Lexus has refused to acknowledge this solution but they (Toyota) are just too arrogant to do so. There have been thousands of ticked off customers about this wind noise issue and Lexus has yet not fixed it. I did have a bit of a problem (love the car however) with this issue on my car and I fixed it myself. thanks to a fix invented by a gentleman in TX. I am only bringing this up just in case. Obviously, not all LS's have this problem.
The point is that I'm back in the market, and even though I should be sitting back and being patient, I keep getting this damned feeling that I should not be in the stock market at this time in history... like there is something terrible going to happen.
Tag,
Your anxiety about the market sounds to me like it is a case of investing too much into this market. To help ease your mind, maybe you should lighten up a little so that you become more comfortable and can sleep in peace at night. If it's not a case of playing to heavy, then perhaps this is your problem. You have been perfect predicting the market action lately and perhaps you are worried that you will not be able to maintain this perfection.
Sit back, relax, and watch your portfolio go to the moon over the next several months .
If we were in a room together I'd use the old adage my boss and I always had at my old CFO job and that "let's go to the board". Somehow we always figured it out by using the pros and cons. There are a lot of cons. Chief for me is that:
1. Too much money is getting too concentrated and that allows more and more manipulation. The hedge funds that survived the carnage are now more powerful and controlling than ever. 2. The US deficit and Obama's big government scare the heck out of me. 3 Tax increase and the fear of inflation (fear is 10x greater than the actual chance IMO) 4. The Euro as a LT currency - IMO - is doomed and even worse it's been grossly over-valued for years in order to drive up commodity prices. 5. We d'ont yet know all the damage of the past recession and surprises could still be lurking. 6. China will slow a lot in the future and it may be sooner than we think. This is going to be a big problem for oil as the US demand for gas and oil - IMO - is never coming back to the peak levels.
Now the positives:
1. The last recession was made much worse by investor greed than real economics and IMO years from now that will become clearer and clearer. That's why - again IMO - this recovery may be a lot more V-shaped than I ever imagined it could be months ago. 2. The greed has gotten so great that better regulation everywhere is inevitable and while this may temporarily hurt markets, in the long run it will help them. 3. There's a lot of money still on the sidelines and earnings growth the rest of the year should be healthy. That money has to go somewhere and stocks look best suited. 4. Perhas most important of all is that we are past the worst of the employment issues and jobs some real good ones are coming back. Those that survived are spending freely again as the fear factor is gone, bank credit is easing up quickly and those that were unemployed and get back on track will keep this going and start spending in the future years. Also technology spending looks poised for a healthy jump.
But here's what's bothering me a lot and maybe it's in your gut to. Gamblers (they are not investors), mainly hedge fund heads just go around with their money power supply and create bubble after bubble, often irrationally. They use stooges on CNBC and elsewhere in the media for pump and dump promotions. So Investing and timing today has become more about guessing what they are doing than anything else. We are too far removed from the core concept of investing in the fortunes and misfortunes of business. Trading is more and more about exotics which are really vehicles (I can't even call them investments) that are self promoted by Wall Street purely to make money for investment banks, insiders and hedge funds. The industry is dirtier than ever and the only way to clean it up is turning criminal charges against some of the banks which is why this GS issue is a lot bigger than anyone thought initially. No bank or business will survive an indictment and inside Goldman I think they are finally starting to realize that.
With all that said any investment in something that LT will be supported by fundamentals will reward. But you may have to go up and down through cycles thanks to the greed, manipulation and panic that goes on. Just think about it. Last week someone sold ACN at $24, Apple at $199 and P&G at $46 in a minute of trading while buyers at that point made as much as a 60% gain in minutes in some of the best blue chip companies around.. That doesn't happen in well regulated honest markets.
Last week someone sold ACN at $24, Apple at $199 and P&G at $46 in a minute of trading while buyers at that point made as much as a 60% gain in minutes in some of the best blue chip companies around.
I am not really sure, but were these trades canceled? I know it was talked about, but did it really happen?
I am not really sure, but were these trades canceled? I know it was talked about, but did it really happen?
From everything I have heard, these trades were indeed cancelled. There was some sort of a time frame where all trades were cancelled. My purchase of AAPL at $243 on the way back up from $299 was fine since it was not within that time frame.
Only trades that were greater than a 60% departure from the price before that precipitous moment happened were cancelled by Nasdaq and the NYSE. So with ACN only trades under $24 were cancelled. The P&G sale at $46 also stood. Remember some of these trades only happened at one exchange. None of them happened on trades at the NYSE itself once trading halted (so no P&G trade under $56 happened there) but only about 20% of trades run thru the NYSE now. When the NYSE put the stoppers on - volume just transeferred to another exchange permitted to trade big board stocks. That's where I have a big issue. The rules are not the same elsewhere so the computers simply rerout around the block to an exchange that is open. This actually allows orders biased to buy or sell to overwhelm the other side of the order even more. So the answer to the question is that most of the trades were not cancelled, and none of the trades within 60% of the value pre the moment of collapse were cancelled. Technically Apple could have been had as low as $100 if the imbalance of orders was great enough. But the imbalance on Apple only dropped to $199 and someone got the company at that price last week.
There was a story today that when you average the trades that took place away from the NYSE the real drop in the dow in that minute was 1,250. It officially is under 1,000 because the dow is calculated only off trades on the NYSE itself. But the real market drop, based on permitted trades that went through was 25-30% greater.
That is what I sort of expected. Sure smells like some sort of manipulation. Now my question is who in the world would sell at those prices ? If I had a sell order in, my broker would not have sold !! Computers?
I hope there is a big investigation to see who made all the money.
A sell at market order would do it. If there's no buyers it falls until there is one. If you put in a limit buy order well under market price you may have gotten lucky as long as it was within the 60% rule. But I will bet you that most of those trades that took place in that 20 minute window went through. This has taught me never to use buy or sell at market commands ever again.
But you hit the nail on the head. Who would ever make a monumental sell at market order like that as you had to know the order volume would kill the price. So I d'ont get it. Last I read they still can't track it so whoever did this had a purpose and would have not done so without an intent to somehow gain on the trade. It's also possible of course this was a terrorist action or the action of a more deisciplined enemy. Personally though I think this was enemies hiding in plain sight ala a George Soros type.
Personally though I think this was enemies hiding in plain sight ala a George Soros type.
You know my distrust for Soros, as I posted previously, but I have to disagree with your statement. The reason I disagree is that Soros already has his methods of market manipulation and economic terrorism, and he has made sooooooo much money from doing so. I just don't see him directly sabatoging the stock market to make himself money.
However, I do tend to agree that this was a deliberate act. It could have been perpetrated by an individual, but I have considered the possibility that it was a carefully orchestrated event whereby there was a major coordination by a group of individuals working closely together, and they synchronized their actions with great precision.
Hopefully they will tell us what really happened... but somehow I doubt it.
I didn't mean to indict Soros. That's why I said Soros-type. I think you're right that this was wel co-ordinated as it was simply too big for any one entity to put out unless it was a foreign government action. I've been thinking for years though that several large hedge funds are making actions in unison.
Basically a crime gone horribly wrong by computer input mistakes maybe?. Yes - very possible. Think about it - no one has come forward to protest losses that were made in that period and yet we know all of them within 60% of the trade price before the glitch went through. Only the guilty would hide in such a situation. It's as if you were shot accidentally by your partner in a bank hold-up and the act was caught on camera. You can't go running for help.
BTW - have you noticed there is now a $6 difference between WTI and Brent crude and WTI is the better crude.
I think many of us have suspected this type of manipulation and collusion for years now. These lightning fast computers and trading programs make it possible... along with being dishonest and having no morals.
I have always believed the Hedge Fund managers and some Mutual Fund operators, used their massive buying and selling power to manipulate the market. One thing that has kept me from trading much.
On Gold:
Todays price has made my stash of gold coins in the bank safety deposit box our largest single asset, aside from our real estate. I almost sold some when it hit $1000. How high can it go? And what good is the cash in the bank? I guess I will just hang on to them.
I think China feels safer with Gold than US Dollars.
Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, I decided to take a loss and get out of Citigroup this morning for better or for worse. I had bought it at $4.51 and I got out at $4.14 a few minutes ago. Below is the reason I decided to take a hike. This Walls Street Journal article now says that Citigroug (in addition to Goldman) and many other big banks are now being investigated for possible consumer fraud. Maybe Tag will shoot me for this :surprise: .
Now you tell me. I just bought more at $4.12 to dilute my previous purchase @ $4.42. I now have a grand total of 1000 shares. Not going to make or break my IRA account.
This thread has gotten me more proactive in my retirement account. Fortunately I don't have any plans for it until I have to start taking some out in 3 more years.
Sorry but I just found out about this at about 8:50 AM Central this morning. I posted it as soon as I could. Maybe, this is not a big deal of a market factor for Citi, but I just decided to play it safe. I had bought 1000 shares at 4.51. I am holding all the rest of my stocks. City was the only bank stock I owned. Perhaps Wells Fargo is a good one to buy at this time since their name has not come up on this investigation.
Folks, you will not believe this but it seems very real and genuine. If it were up to me I would jump on this solution. Leave it to the good ol' boys to discover something like this.
A few hours ago I read news over here on former clerks of some Banks (J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank AG. UBS AG, Bank of America's, Merrill Lynch unit, France's Credit Agricole, Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs), who work now for the three Credit Agencies being under scrutiny, being influenced by their former employers to tart up mortgage-based securities. If true, suspicion could be, only mortgage-based securities?
I was wondering since I read these news to ask in this forum for more information on the issue, if possible, and then Cyclone has pulled into it. Looking forward to know on the development of the scrutiny. Mmm may be in the end it could be said 'who rates the raters?'
Regards, Jose Edited: I was replying to an immediately recent Cyclone4's post with a link which has been edited.
You got to love it. All the high tech money wasted and these guys look at the problem and come up with a cheap solution. They know about oil in the Gulf Coast states.
I've seen the news, and I have watched the stock respond, and I have listened to some commentaries.
Therefore, I have just purchased more Citigroup.
I will watch it carefully, of course, but at this point there is no way I am giving up on this potential fortune. I am playing this stock as a long-term winner, and I totally believe it. I will continue to buy more and more Citi every time there is a worthy dip. When doing so, my average share price improves. Ultimately, I will cash it in one day, and the result will be either that I break near even, suffer a loss (which would hopefully be modest due to the dollar cost averaging), or I will make a very attractive gain... which I believe is much more likely in the long run.
I understand your reservations. But, I do really believe that Citi will weather all this and come out stronger than ever.
But... I would certainly change my mind if the situation were to get nasty or out of control.
Jose, this investigation will likely get quite ugly in the weeks or months ahead. It is becoming more and more apparent that there were many large banks involved in the fiasco. A lot more will be revealed.
Btw, the link on my original post from early this morning is still there.
They are not going to collapse the banks... it is in no one's best interest. Even the GS thing didn't get all that ugly.
I think it will get a bunch of media hype for a little while, and that there won't be all that much come out of it, except that a few politicians will "look" like they are doing a great job.
IOW, it's politically motivated, IMO.
I kid of think you are over-reacting to this a bit... but let's see.
've seen the news, and I have watched the stock respond, and I have listened to some commentaries.
Therefore, I have just purchased more Citigroup.
You have been spot on with your market decisions lately, so I hate to bet against you on Citi either. Time will tell how all this plays out. The stock is holding up quite this morning with the bad news. I had a feeling you would not like my decision :sick: .
Comments
Charlie,
You did not jinx the market today. I am actually pleased with the day's action. That's a whole lot of gains to hold on to. The Dow is UP from where it opened the day, and from where I purchased back into the market. More significantly, the Nasdaq performed even better, and was up nicely from its open. I made nice gains today, and you are right that it is a tug of war, but in the end... we will win! The naysayers will be proven wrong.
It could be argued that our stock market is probably the best investment choice right now in the entire world... and it's an incredible time to invest, as so much growth and innovation lies ahead. Our economy could potentially be on its way to a major upswing over the next few years. Minimum inflation and record low interest rates certainly don't hurt either.
Today's details: 18 of my 22 stocks made gains for me today, some very nicely... the other 4 were down slightly.
TM
Your history of posts here and in the LL forum have documented that your anticipated acquisition of the Lexus LF-A is in part with consideration of its collectible and investment value. Because of that, it is not necessary to post about it in the LL forum, and you can enjoy posting about it here instead. That forum has turned into an Audi forum for the most part... not to say that is wrong, but it has totally lost many posters interest.as a result.
Discussing automobiles with regards to their "investment" value is a natural for this forum. The LF-A's investment value has already proven itself to be an interesting topic worthy of discussion.
Perhaps you might consider the investment and/or collectible value of THIS car:
The 2011 Porsche 911 GT2 RS, the fastest, most-powerful street-legal Porsche ever produced in the history of Porsche!
Consider that there will be only 500 of them manufactured, which is the same number as the LF-A units. Again, it will be the fastest, most-powerful street-legal Porsche ever produced in the history of Porsche. And... get this!!... the price of this monster will be only HALF that of the LF-A!! And, unlike the 918 Spyder, there is no hybrid technology that you are concerned about. I am covinced that this would be a better investment.
Just wait until you read all of this!
link title
TM
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Heck yes.
The whole idea of investing in a car seems impossible to me anyway. I can't imagine buying a car as an investment, and when he brought that idea up in the LL, I was honestly kind of negative on the idea. I just don't see the LF-A being worth that kind of money... now, or ever. There is no pedigree behind it. That's why I think the Porsche is a much better bet... and the entry ticket is half price by comparison.
Porsche has proved itself at auctions to be a better possibility of being worth a lot of money one day.
All that said, I agree with you, and I could never do it. I wouldn't even want to insure the damned thing, and I'd be so afraid someone would ding it. And if they did, I'd probably have to kill them. So, no... not for me.
TM
I think the LFA has a chance to hold some value via speculation, like Ferraris around 1989. However, there will probably be a game to play in looking for the right time to dump it, as by 1992 those Ferrari values had collapsed.
It's hard to go off topic on a car space board with this post but here goes. I'm going to re-up on a new LS460L AWD lease and take the Lexus 6 month early exit of my current lease. The price drops $225 a month and the math was just too compelling to pass up. I love the S-class but it'll have to wait 3 years and by then a new model may be out. Besides I mainly drive the GL these days as the car is predominantly driven by my wife. Tag, the GL has been flawless and I love it. I'm not sure I can give up the GL. I may buy it outright or just lease another one. I have no interest in Audi or BMW unless I'm looking at a 3 vs A4 vs G car. Had my wife been willing I'd have completed the lease and went S-class hybrid. But my wife insists she wants AWD so that made it be LS460L vs S550. If Lexus didn't have the early termination I'd have gone with the S but the math was overwhelmingly in favor of the LS460L to the point it was impossible to pass up. But Tag, MB is starting to make inroads on me and may hook me before too much longer. Within the next 5 years, God willing and assuming everything stays the course in business I see an S-classs and an SL in my garage.
I test drove a GL320 CDI in 2007. It was used and they wanted more than new price in CA for the diesel. So I ended up with a Sequoia, which is OK. Do you have the GL450? I would have a hard time going back to a sedan after so many years in SUVs. I hate driving my wife's LS400, though it really is a nice old car. Hard for my old back to get out of.
It's amazing how many early 1990's LS 400's I still see on the road locally.
I am selling my BMW... so I agree with you about BMW and Audi.
GL is the best SUV out there... I argued hard for its defense, back in the good old days. You remember.
Fortunately right now, I'm not interested in cars all that much, and I suppose I would prefer to own a hybrid or electric vehicle or something that feels it is a step towards the future and uses less gasoline.
I currently drive the JAG (note the initials Len
I think your decision to get the LS460 AWD is spot on. Your wife will be happy, and you will be rewarded for that.
Market today opened with my buying opportunity, so I'm back in.
TM
If I was looking for a collectible, and I was willing to blow a bunch of dough on a car like that, I'd get that 2011 Porsche 911 GT2 RS, the fastest, most-powerful street-legal Porsche ever produced in the history of Porsche as the "collectible", cover it up, and then with the extra money I saved by not getting the Lexus, I'd also get a Louts Exige or a GT-R for the "fun" factor.
TM
Seriously, I am past the idea of buying the LFA as an investment. My old posts on this topic in LL were made when my stock portfolio was not supercharged, and I have not started my new business then.
My financial situation is looking better than ever, so being able to grab a rare Lexus is just purely a bonus for me.
About this 911 GT2 RS, is it a track vehicle in disguise? I've read that previous GT2 was just that. It's performance stats are almost identical to the LFA's. Also, Lexus's propaganda has me believed that the LFA is a super star on the tracks, and a luxurious Lexus car on the roads. This is very important to me because I want to enjoy the car for the 99% of the time that I don't take it to a track.
I would think so. Any car, including that Porsche, that can perform to that extreme is going to be a track car at its core. Lexus won't fool too many into believing that the LF-A can run on a track with the very best of them, and then drive around town like an LS460.
...the LFA is a super star on the tracks, and a luxurious Lexus car on the roads. This is very important to me because I want to enjoy the car for the 99% of the time that I don't take it to a track.
You want your cake and eat it too. We all do. But then there's this thing called "reality" that seems to get in the way.
My old posts on this topic in LL were made when my stock portfolio was not supercharged, and I have not started my new business then.
My financial situation is looking better than ever, so being able to grab a rare Lexus is just purely a bonus for me.
Ok, so what's the new business?
TM
Ok, so what's the new business?
You will know when I have the IPO info ready.
Thank you. Look forward to it.
TM
Yes I remember it very well and you were dead right. When I was in the process of negotiatng and leasing it the sales guy insisted I drive an E-class first and then the GL. He said the GL was basically made off of a stretched E-class frame and he wanted me to feel the similarity. I never checked on that but basically I saw his point in the drive of both vehicles but to me the GL rode more plushier than the E, more like a less refined S-class to me and when I drove it I actually thought about your post and said to myself how accurate it was. Now I also love the LX but with the GL out there, and at a cheaper price, great styling and sportier handling there's no reason to even consider the LX. Also the GL is a big vehicle but it's nimble and fast so you almost never think it is as large as it is while you are driving it. I do see what you pointed out all along - that the MB cars can ride just as plush as Lexus, but have that superior tautness in handling. I'm liking the MB brand more and more everyday. But like you my overall interest in cars is waning.
Help me out here. No matter what I do, I can't shake this uncomfortable feeling about the market. Sure, I know I played the recent events with some successful timing strategy, but this is deeper than that.
The point is that I'm back in the market, and even though I should be sitting back and being patient, I keep getting this damned feeling that I should not be in the stock market at this time in history... like there is something terrible going to happen. It's really messing me up, because even though there are a lot of fundamental reasons to be in the market right now, I can't ignore that there are some strange, irrational, and highly-complicated domestic and global events that do not seem like they can be easily resolved. And, par for the course, the financial "experts" have many different opinions about what has been happening as well as their goofy predictions... and bottom line is that they don't have a clue.
It's as if the world has reached a level of overload, and a point of necessary reconciliation of some sort. It's difficult to explain my concerns, but I can not help but wonder how the world economies can truly function properly when there is now so much dysfunctional global political and financial interaction throughout the world.
How can our markets be expected to behave in any healthy manner under these insane global conditions? Shouldn't we really be switching gears to "preservation of capital" as the smart mode of operation? Y'know, before it's too late. Aren't we all being a bit too complacent?
Ask yourself, how much upside potential might be left? But, then consider how much downside is possible. Doesn' that leave all of us at unacceptable risk levels?
TM
Are you buying the actual shares of companies in your portfolio? If yes, then you should consider some equivalent options strategies. I am sure you know that your potential losses are limited with most strategies, unless you gambled on selling naked calls/puts.
This is my prediction - I don't see them appreciating like a McLaren F1 or something - the Lexus name is not so embraced outside of this part of the world, and it is an odd looking car...but I do think there will be enough demand to keep depreciation in check. Like you mentioned, you already have an offer to buy it when that weird lease period is over. It will eventually depreciate, but not steeply.
I generally don't want to move in and out of the market too much anyway... it's too risky to do so. I know we've had a lot of discussion about timing the market and all of that, but my general approach is to hold stocks for a reasonable amount of time, and only make changes as necessary. It just so happened that it became necessary recently, so there was a lot of attention to it.
Current conditions are more challenging, more complicated , and much more difficult to analyze.
Regardless of my market anxiety, I am absolutely bullish on the US stock market. It blows my mind how there are so-called experts out there calling for a 5-6K Dow... that's nuts, IMO. I'm still looking forward to 12K in the not-too-distant future.
TM
If we keep up the insane spending of money that we don't have we could end up like Greece in 2 or 3 years. The difference being that we can print money to pay our debts and Greece could not. Thus my fears about inflation...or even the worst of both worlds, stagflation.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
You have to please the wife no matter what
Btw, if by some chance you experience driver's side window area wind noise with the new LS, there IS a solution. Lexus has refused to acknowledge this solution but they (Toyota) are just too arrogant to do so. There have been thousands of ticked off customers about this wind noise issue and Lexus has yet not fixed it. I did have a bit of a problem (love the car however) with this issue on my car and I fixed it myself. thanks to a fix invented by a gentleman in TX. I am only bringing this up just in case. Obviously, not all LS's have this problem.
Tag,
Your anxiety about the market sounds to me like it is a case of investing too much into this market. To help ease your mind, maybe you should lighten up a little so that you become more comfortable and can sleep in peace at night. If it's not a case of playing to heavy, then perhaps this is your problem. You have been perfect predicting the market action lately and perhaps you are worried that you will not be able to maintain this perfection.
Sit back, relax, and watch your portfolio go to the moon over the next several months
If we were in a room together I'd use the old adage my boss and I always had at my old CFO job and that "let's go to the board". Somehow we always figured it out by using the pros and cons. There are a lot of cons. Chief for me is that:
1. Too much money is getting too concentrated and that allows more and more manipulation. The hedge funds that survived the carnage are now more powerful and controlling than ever.
2. The US deficit and Obama's big government scare the heck out of me.
3 Tax increase and the fear of inflation (fear is 10x greater than the actual chance IMO)
4. The Euro as a LT currency - IMO - is doomed and even worse it's been grossly over-valued for years in order to drive up commodity prices.
5. We d'ont yet know all the damage of the past recession and surprises could still be lurking.
6. China will slow a lot in the future and it may be sooner than we think. This is going to be a big problem for oil as the US demand for gas and oil - IMO - is never coming back to the peak levels.
Now the positives:
1. The last recession was made much worse by investor greed than real economics and IMO years from now that will become clearer and clearer. That's why - again IMO - this recovery may be a lot more V-shaped than I ever imagined it could be months ago.
2. The greed has gotten so great that better regulation everywhere is inevitable and while this may temporarily hurt markets, in the long run it will help them.
3. There's a lot of money still on the sidelines and earnings growth the rest of the year should be healthy. That money has to go somewhere and stocks look best suited.
4. Perhas most important of all is that we are past the worst of the employment issues and jobs some real good ones are coming back. Those that survived are spending freely again as the fear factor is gone, bank credit is easing up quickly and those that were unemployed and get back on track will keep this going and start spending in the future years. Also technology spending looks poised for a healthy jump.
But here's what's bothering me a lot and maybe it's in your gut to. Gamblers (they are not investors), mainly hedge fund heads just go around with their money power supply and create bubble after bubble, often irrationally. They use stooges on CNBC and elsewhere in the media for pump and dump promotions. So Investing and timing today has become more about guessing what they are doing than anything else. We are too far removed from the core concept of investing in the fortunes and misfortunes of business. Trading is more and more about exotics which are really vehicles (I can't even call them investments) that are self promoted by Wall Street purely to make money for investment banks, insiders and hedge funds. The industry is dirtier than ever and the only way to clean it up is turning criminal charges against some of the banks which is why this GS issue is a lot bigger than anyone thought initially. No bank or business will survive an indictment and inside Goldman I think they are finally starting to realize that.
With all that said any investment in something that LT will be supported by fundamentals will reward. But you may have to go up and down through cycles thanks to the greed, manipulation and panic that goes on. Just think about it. Last week someone sold ACN at $24, Apple at $199 and P&G at $46 in a minute of trading while buyers at that point made as much as a 60% gain in minutes in some of the best blue chip companies around.. That doesn't happen in well regulated honest markets.
No wind noise for me. If I get it on the new car I'll let you know as I'd need that solution.
I am not really sure, but were these trades canceled? I know it was talked about, but did it really happen?
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
From everything I have heard, these trades were indeed cancelled. There was some sort of a time frame where all trades were cancelled. My purchase of AAPL at $243 on the way back up from $299 was fine since it was not within that time frame.
There was a story today that when you average the trades that took place away from the NYSE the real drop in the dow in that minute was 1,250. It officially is under 1,000 because the dow is calculated only off trades on the NYSE itself. But the real market drop, based on permitted trades that went through was 25-30% greater.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37109515
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/05/dow-was-down-1250-on-may-6/
I hope there is a big investigation to see who made all the money.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
But you hit the nail on the head. Who would ever make a monumental sell at market order like that as you had to know the order volume would kill the price. So I d'ont get it. Last I read they still can't track it so whoever did this had a purpose and would have not done so without an intent to somehow gain on the trade. It's also possible of course this was a terrorist action or the action of a more deisciplined enemy. Personally though I think this was enemies hiding in plain sight ala a George Soros type.
Thanks.
You know my distrust for Soros, as I posted previously, but I have to disagree with your statement. The reason I disagree is that Soros already has his methods of market manipulation and economic terrorism, and he has made sooooooo much money from doing so. I just don't see him directly sabatoging the stock market to make himself money.
However, I do tend to agree that this was a deliberate act. It could have been perpetrated by an individual, but I have considered the possibility that it was a carefully orchestrated event whereby there was a major coordination by a group of individuals working closely together, and they synchronized their actions with great precision.
Hopefully they will tell us what really happened... but somehow I doubt it.
TM
Basically a crime gone horribly wrong by computer input mistakes maybe?. Yes - very possible. Think about it - no one has come forward to protest losses that were made in that period and yet we know all of them within 60% of the trade price before the glitch went through. Only the guilty would hide in such a situation. It's as if you were shot accidentally by your partner in a bank hold-up and the act was caught on camera. You can't go running for help.
BTW - have you noticed there is now a $6 difference between WTI and Brent crude and WTI is the better crude.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
On Gold:
Todays price has made my stash of gold coins in the bank safety deposit box our largest single asset, aside from our real estate. I almost sold some when it hit $1000. How high can it go? And what good is the cash in the bank? I guess I will just hang on to them.
I think China feels safer with Gold than US Dollars.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-bank-probes-widen-reports-2010-05-1- - - 3?siteid=yhoof
This thread has gotten me more proactive in my retirement account. Fortunately I don't have any plans for it until I have to start taking some out in 3 more years.
http://www.wimp.com/solutionoil/
I was wondering since I read these news to ask in this forum for more information on the issue, if possible, and then Cyclone has pulled into it. Looking forward to know on the development of the scrutiny. Mmm may be in the end it could be said 'who rates the raters?'
Regards,
Jose
Edited: I was replying to an immediately recent Cyclone4's post with a link which has been edited.
Regarding Citi:
I've seen the news, and I have watched the stock respond, and I have listened to some commentaries.
Therefore, I have just purchased more Citigroup.
I will watch it carefully, of course, but at this point there is no way I am giving up on this potential fortune. I am playing this stock as a long-term winner, and I totally believe it. I will continue to buy more and more Citi every time there is a worthy dip. When doing so, my average share price improves. Ultimately, I will cash it in one day, and the result will be either that I break near even, suffer a loss (which would hopefully be modest due to the dollar cost averaging), or I will make a very attractive gain... which I believe is much more likely in the long run.
I understand your reservations. But, I do really believe that Citi will weather all this and come out stronger than ever.
But... I would certainly change my mind if the situation were to get nasty or out of control.
TM
Btw, the link on my original post from early this morning is still there.
I think it will get a bunch of media hype for a little while, and that there won't be all that much come out of it, except that a few politicians will "look" like they are doing a great job.
IOW, it's politically motivated, IMO.
I kid of think you are over-reacting to this a bit... but let's see.
TM
Therefore, I have just purchased more Citigroup.
You have been spot on with your market decisions lately, so I hate to bet against you on Citi either. Time will tell how all this plays out. The stock is holding up quite this morning with the bad news. I had a feeling you would not like my decision :sick: .