The Stock Market and Investing

houdini1

For everyone who thinks our government would never lie to us or mislead us in any way, please check out the current news reports circulating about flight 800.

When this first happened I very clearly remember seeing a video that was aired on one of the networks showing a glowing object rising thru the clouds and striking the plane. That video never surfaced again.

Since then things have only gotten worse, and scandal after scandal continues to surface. I am not sure what is happening to our Country, the one that we all know and love, but something very dishonest and underhanded is going on. I have lost all trust in our government, and it seems that one party is just as bad as the other. I hope we throw everyone out in the next election. This has just gone way too far.

imidazol97

>When this first happened I very clearly remember seeing a video that was aired on one of the networks showing a glowing object rising thru the clouds and striking the plane. That video never surfaced again.

This all sounds familiar in today's scandals. I recall the excuse that the rising glow before the explosion was the fuel from a wing tank escaping after the explosion that was burning upward from the ground.

gagrice

There is nothing honest about our government. I too remember and questioned the finding on flt 800. Think back and that was the beginning of the end for TWA. Boeing paid dearly for the findings as well.

I wonder if the market tanking today has anything to do with this bit of truth slipping out? Or do we blame it on Bernanke? One of the small Chinese stocks (yong) I kept went way up today. I think the CEO wants to buy the company.

anthonyp

I also found that odd..I remember seeing something like you mention, but the explanation didn`t make sense......I always thought `lightning` struck the ground, not the other way, but have seen slow motion pictures showing it rising......I really still think it comes to the ground :-) and right now it is lightning and thunder..

I do not think our different leaders (elected) are anything other than `we` are, but I do think those that compose `the government` have slipped on forthright honesty......I really don`t understand why it is so difficult to just investigate and let the facts be told forthright and honestly? Tony ps the news media may also play a part in this....

fintail

I seem to remember a video like that as well, or at least someone else mentioning it. I wonder who was on that plane...

I don't think it is all just happening, either. Go back a good 30++ years or more. Not to mention it doesn't just seem that both parties are corrupt - they both are to probably identical levels. If anything, the omnivorous military-industrial complex that Ike warned about has become reality.

But hey, the markets are doing better, so most will be content.

houdini1

As I recall, there was some sort of naval exercise going on in the area. What if the plane was accidentally shot down by an errant U.S. missile? In other words, a "friendly fire" accident.

Obviously, our government would not want to admit to such a horrible blunder, so that would explain the cover-up. If a missile was involved, that is the only scenario that makes any sense to me. Plus it is becoming more and more apparent that many officials will not hesitate to lie, even under oath, to save their own skins.

cdnpinhead

they did a tremendous show (or was it real?) of reassembling the airframe and deciding that it was the empty centre fuel tank fumes combined with bad wiring that (supposedly?) caused the explosion. Then the industry came up with nitrogen purge systems (like the military uses) to eliminate combustible fumes in empty or partially-full fuel tanks.

Bring on the black helicopters!

anthonyp

You know , that could be a plausible thing......I do think I would rather think it was the fuel tank exploding , than a friendly fire mishap....Man what a tragedy --never the less--

A big plunge today.....Just so I try and contribute something----remember it is just a slowing down of putting money out there, and it will be a long time before interest rates actually go up a little bit....Just a typical over reaction---but never the less concerning.....Tony

houdini1

I am hoping for a small recovery tomorrow. The last two days have not been much fun.

anthonyp

It might be short lived.....like a strong appearing recovery only to be sold into......I personally have already cut back everything, but still have one holding I haven`t finished with...If things were to rally I would take advantage of it----if not , I`m not really concerned so will just continue to wait....

I wonder if the computer traders can manage this sort of thing?......When an avalanche of sell orders keep popping up , they may end up out of money if they do as they have done in the past.....Five hundred points in two days is alot imo Tony

ljflx

Not only were military exercises going on in that area that night but there were quickly quieted reports about a member of the military that was despondent over what happened that night. Clear implications at the time were that he either fired the missile or was responsible for someone who did. There were over 200 accounts from eyewitnsses who saw the missile trail before it hit the plane. These included people out on boats and a handful of military trained pilots with combat experience that had moved onto the aviation industry. There were also radar images, again quickly quieted, of a missile moving toward the plane. There were also reports of a military vessel moving away from the site while many rescue boats were moving toward it. I am one that dis-believes almost every conspiracy theory I hear. But on this one I have no doubt that this was friendly fire, probably caused by a heat seeking missile either fired in error or mistakenly fired at something that was believed to be part of the training exercise. This incident happened in the days when there were few, if any camera/video cell phones, limited broadband service and no social networks. Today there'd be not just eyewitness reports but proof of them thru cell phone videos and stillshots uploaded everywhere on the net almost instantly.

gagrice

I agree with your analysis. Sadly our government has a history of not fessing up to errors unless cornered with no escape. Worst part is Boeing and TWA paid the price for that error. They deserve to be exonerated.

robr2

Not only were military exercises going on in that area that night...There were over 200 accounts from eyewitnsses who saw the missile trail before it hit the plane....There were also radar images, again quickly quieted, of a missile moving toward the plane. There were also reports of a military vessel moving away from the site while many rescue boats were moving toward it...that this was friendly fire, probably caused by a heat seeking missile either fired in error or mistakenly fired at something that was believed to be part of the training exercise.

The only reason I feel that it wasn't friendly fire is that the military doesn't often hold open fire training exercises around the flight path of 3 of the busiest airports in the county.

IMHO, it there was a "missle" it was most likely a terrorist attack. But I truly believe that the NTSB came up with the right conclusion.

gagrice

U.S. Civil Charges Against Corzine Are Seen as Near

About time this administration did their job. There are hundreds of Wall Street crooks living the good life on our bailout tax dollars.

Federal regulators are poised to sue Jon S. Corzine over the collapse of MF Global and the brokerage firm’s misuse of customer money during its final days, a blowup that rattled Wall Street and cast a spotlight on Mr. Corzine, the former New Jersey governor who ran the firm until its bankruptcy in 2011.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that regulated MF Global, plans to approve the lawsuit as soon as this week, according to law enforcement officials with knowledge of the case. In a rare move against a Wall Street executive, the agency has informed Mr. Corzine’s lawyers that it aims to file the civil case without offering him the opportunity to settle, setting up a legal battle that could drag on for years.

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/06/24/u-s-civil-charges-against-corzine-are-see- n-as-near/?partner=MYWAY&ei=5065&_r=0

cyclone4

Great so to see that they are finally going after him.

gagrice

I hope you end up getting back what was yours from that scoundrel.

cyclone4

We are up to 91% at the moment. We should get more after the July 3rd hearing. Eventually, we will be up to 100%. However, due to all the suffering this has caused for so many people, we should get more than 100%.

houdini1

Not to mention the lost profits from not having your money to invest for all these months. Corzine is a crook, plain and simple.

anthonyp

It has been a long haul for you, and I agree you should get back at least double your money...Afterall at one point it seemed like you had had it all confiscated...and I think justice has been very low to non existent in many cases like this....A Shame....I hope your summer has been going well for you Tony

cyclone4

Not to mention the lost profits from not having your money to invest for all these months. Corzine is a crook, plain and simple.

You got that right! Actually, we are up to 89% whole and not 91%. It has taken so long for this process to unfold that I sort of lost track a little bit.

cyclone4

Thank you Tony. My summer is going well. I am in the process of completing an autobiography which my daughter along with my son's wife are editing. First impressions from a few people are very exciting. I will let you guys know when it will be published.

The only thing that continues to not go well of course is Apple. But as I stated in the past, I am holding on to it for the long haul.

anthonyp

Don`t forget to remember to let me know where I can get a copy :-) I bet it will be a good one.....As for Apple, it has been miserable for us both....I have a good sized loss--but am hanging on.....:-) Tony ps I think Len also

carnaught

Don`t forget to remember to let me know where I can get a copy I bet it will be a good one.....As for Apple, it has been miserable for us both....I have a good sized loss--but am hanging on.....Tony ps I think Len also

Ditto.

If I had the conjones, I'd buy some at the present price hoping that this represents the short-term nadir.

gagrice

For some reason AAPL and Gold are following similar trends. When you look at the two charts over the last couple years they look a lot alike. So don't feel like the lone ranger. I hate to say how much I am down. Though I would not buy gold or AAPL right now. They say Gold could go down to $750. So how low can AAPL go?????

gagrice

I think the Woz makes an astute statement on Apple in an interview yesterday.

A wealthy philanthropist, technology evangelist, and frequent conference participant since leaving Apple for good in 1987, Wozniak was no longer personally close to Jobs when the latter died of cancer in 2011. But he praised his irascible former partner as “an incredible asset not only to the company, but to the world.”

Will Tim Cook, Jobs’s successor as chief executive, be able to continue Apple’s record of innovation?

“I think it’s way too early to decide,” Wozniak told me, “because Steve Jobs’s reputation largely comes from being this great visionary—and that largely comes from products that came out of Apple. Really incredible products don’t come every year. So wait until we see if Apple has a few dogs that come out, and then you can start saying that something’s missing.”

gagrice

I am thinking of getting out of my McMansion and letting some other poor [non-permissible content removed] take the loss.

Home prices soar in April, leading to warnings of another bubble
Prices in 20 large U.S. cities in April jump 12.1% from a year earlier, a record gain for the S&P/Case-Shiller index.

Home prices in large U.S. cities rose sharply in April, posting the biggest one-month gain in the history of a leading U.S. home price index.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of 20 large U.S. cities rose 2.5% over March and 12.1% from April 2012. Every city tracked by the measure has now posted at least four consecutive months of year-over-year increases, indicating a broad and robust real estate recovery.

http://articles.latimes.com/2013/jun/26/business/la-fi-case-shiller-20130626

robr2

IMHO, these recent home price spikes are due to the fear that mortgage rates are going to jump dramatically in the next few months. People who can qualify and that wanted a rate under 4% have been driving up home prices in the past 6 months or so so they could lock in the low rate.

It isn't like 2006 when anyone that could fog up a mirror could get a mortgage which is what drove prices up back then. When I refinanced back in 2005, all I had to give the broker was my SS and address and I had a reply in 1 hour. No application, no inspection, nada. I just refinanced two months ago and even with a steady income, a 3:1 value to loan ratio and excellent credit, I had to jump through paperwork hoops to get a new mortgage.

ljflx

Totally disagree with you on this one Rob. The spike is due to cash buyers per everything I read and linked here. Borrowers are having a hard time because appraisals come in too low vs what the homes are bid up too. I have a nephew in the Raleigh NC area and he can't get sellers to even look at his bids. The cash buyers, mainly investors don't need appraisals or a bank. The bank process can be a nightmare because appraisors, in fear of being sued because of the underwater home values in the past, now give extremely conservative valuations to the bank for mortgage lending. The buyers who need mortgages are way behind the curve because they have to wait for the cash based comparables to get into the system. Only when that happens do appraisors lift values somewhat. Banks are lending whey more to refi's then to new buyer home acquisitions.

I just did a 2.375 5 year ARM on a 30 year amortization loan. I'm only borrowing 50% of my home value and though my bank, Sun, moved fast I still had to provide them a lot of paper work and thought the process took too long. And I have strong income, an 825 credit score and on top of that the bank had my old mortgage and payment history for 5 years running.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/09/us/cash-is-fueling-quick-home-sales.html?pagew- - - - anted=all&_r=1&

gagrice

That was my experience refinancing our home last year. Over 800 credit score and no other debt and it took 3 months and a 2 inch stack of paper. They would only finance 60% of appraised value. My neighborhood is going up fast. Way more sold than listings. Still a lot of Pre foreclosures on Zillow around here. About 3 homes going into foreclosure for every 5 listings. And about twice that number sold in last 6 months.

gagrice

The spike is due to cash buyers per everything I read and linked here.

Not much else people feel safe putting their cash into. Over the last 6 months I have watched people pay Way more for fixers than I would around here. A local house was a total fixer, needed new siding, windows, roof and sheetrock. I would have paid at most $200k and it went for $350k just six months ago. And on a very busy corner too boot. They have had contractors there the whole time, and it is still not ready to sell.

robr2

The spike is due to cash buyers per everything I read and linked here. Borrowers are having a hard time because appraisals come in too low vs what the homes are bid up too...The cash buyers, mainly investors don't need appraisals or a bank.

But cash buyers are the exception, not the norm. Yes, cash buyers will drive up costs because they can afford it but at some point, it becomes stupid money being thrown around.

It seems that large institutional investors are coming in to distressed areas and paying cash to so they can rent. But it doesn't make sense to me for them to be driving up the price on properties which may take decades to pay off. The buyers mentioned in the NYT article points out that so many of the "cash buyers" are flippers. If cash buyers like them are the norm, then who is going to buy the houses they want to flip?

My view is very short term - the last 180 days or so. On the micro level, I've spoken to about a dozen buyers and sellers and all have said the same thing: I want to get out or get in while rates are low.

imidazol97

>It seems that large institutional investors are coming in to distressed areas and paying cash to

I read somewhere that the market in lower, normal folks housing is reversed. The buying is primarily institutional and less is normal mortage buyers. The percentage of those two categories is reversed from normal times.

Also the fact that higher priced homes are selling a little better causes the average selling price to appear to be going higher.

Both of these lead to the news reports that hope to change people's sense of how the housing market is doing to make it sound like good news for the average Joe and homes and the economy here in the US.

In some markets the home sales and prices may be doing better than others. I was just in suburban Detroit and the house next to our friends sold the first day it was listed publicly at above asking price. Multiple offers. \

Here in W. Ohio there are homes sitting and sitting next to foreclosed homes. So when the talking heads read the faxed press releases that the home market is just fine and everything is hunky dory, I don't believe them.

gagrice

I think more than one force is in effect concerning the housing market. First off Fannie Mae has 1000s of foreclosed homes in their possession. I have read articles where they are selling them in blocks of 2500 at pennies on the dollar to hedge funds. The stipulation is they cannot be resold for 5 years. Taking them out of the sales pool. So they are being fixed and rented to Section8 folks. Hmmm and who guarantees the rent on these homes?

Then you have the small flippers with cash that are bidding up homes in hopes of making a quick buck.

Add in real people that would like to buy a home before interest rates go higher and it makes for a housing bubble. I know in my neighborhood sale prices are higher than they have been for 5 years. My home appraisal according to the county is $140k more than it was in 2009. Which of course raised my taxes by that amount. I would protest but am afraid they will look at comps that would make the appraisal even higher. I think I could get what I paid in 2007 if I put it on the market. Less the $75k I have put into it in upgrades.

fintail

In my area, because so many people bought in 06-07 and are still upside down, there is a shortage of "affordable" (<500K) detached housing, and a lot of stuff doesn't sit on the market for more than a month. A co-worker just listed her house a few days ago - 20% less than they paid in 06, but about 20% more than she thought it was worth (and what they owe). There were people coming to look at it the same day as it hit the listings. I went to an estate sale a few weeks ago and talked to the people there about the house - same family for 53 years, painfully original to the point of being mostly a gutter - she said 9 people had submitted bids. This was for a 1957 tract house on a busy-ish street that needed everything.

I still don't see the attraction, maybe because I am single. So many people I know who "own" put far more than the recommended contribution into housing, just to say they own. So you own, but have little savings or retirement, and no free money for leisure.

houdini1

What happened to prop.13 that passed back in the 70's ?

gagrice

Prop 13 still exists, at least for now. The Democrat super majority in the legislature has talked of killing it. That will destroy the state.

It is only based on purchase price. I petitioned to get my appraisal lowered when the market went in the toilet. If they lower it and the market comes back up they can raise it back to purchase price. At that point they are limited on yearly raises to 2%. People that have owned for 30 years next door may be paying $800 per year while the person that just bought could be paying $6000 or more for a comparable home.

gagrice

Evidently the housing market is driving the truck sales.

DETROIT (Reuters) - Sales of big, brawny pickup trucks fueled strong demand for new vehicles in the United States in June, driving the industry toward its strongest month since before the recession that drove General Motors Co and Chrysler into bankruptcy.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/chryslers-u-sales-june-rise-8-percent-124445638.html

houdini1

OK, gotcha. I thought that might be the case.

hpmctorque

The performance of Tesla stock has been spectacular in recent months. Consumer Reports and others have given the Model S an outstanding rating, the company has paid off its government loan, and several financial analysts forecast impressive profit momentum. However, Barron's and others feel the stock is running far ahead of the company's fundamentals.

It looks to me that pure electrics, and Tesla in particular, would have to be a major game changer to justify $120+ per share. Is Elon Musk the new Steve Jobs, as some are suggesting?

tlong

Is Elon Musk the new Steve Jobs, as some are suggesting?

IMHO he's the closest thing we have to Jobs. Musk also is CEO of SpaceX, the company which has put the first capsule in orbit by a private company at a cost at least an order of magnitude cheaper than the traditional aerospace companies like Raytheon, Boeing, etc.

Musk wants to help humanity, and so he's working on electric cars and cheaper access to space. He's a nicer guy than Jobs, too.

While I still believe electric cars have significant issues, you have to admire a guy like Musk who is bold and sticks his neck way out there in a way that others think about but never do. And he's used his own personal fortune, too, at least in the case of Space X.

And yet the auto dealers association wants to make it against the law to sell cars over the internet! They feel "threatened". :mad:

gagrice

I would think selling Tesla franchises to existing dealers would be a money maker. I don't think his cars have made any money so far. Tesla is surviving on the Carbon Credit Scam.

I do agree that Musk is a real asset to our country. I also wonder how many tax dollars are being spent for the free charging stations for these fat cat EVs? Smells of corporate welfare to me. Not to mention the drag on our very limited electricity in states like California.

http://blog.caranddriver.com/tesla-to-expand-free-charging-stations-nationwide-b- ut-not-its-dealerships/

hpmctorque

I agree that Tesla should be free to sell its cars through whatever channel(s) it chooses, and that the government shouldn't interfere.

fintail

Not to mention the subsidies given to the 2%ers who buy them. It'll trickle down though, I promise.

That being said, I wish for Musk and Tesla both to succeed - for the most part, a better use of some public funds than our stupid aid and defense adventures.

The dealer mess shows you get the justice you pay for.

hpmctorque

I like to see competition in propulsion systems, since it's positive for consumers and the advancement of technology. The hybrids, electrics, fuel cells and diesels put pressure on the auto companies and suppliers to improve their gasoline engines, to protect their existing investments. However, the costs associated with the "free" charging stations are obviously passed on to some who derive little or no benefit from this subsidy. Also, I think hybrids and electrics should contribute their fair share for the use of our road infrastructure.

There are times when subsidies are useful, but I believe they should be of limited duration when they are funded by tax payers.

robr2

Not to mention the drag on our very limited electricity in states like California.

Except that all the electricity now used to power gas stations and refineries would now be used to charge electric cars. It might even be a zero net difference.

gagrice

I assume you are being funny. We keep expanding our energy needs in the state. We won't have less gas powered cars anytime in the future. The free charging stations are being put in currently. We just shut down San Onofre Nuclear plant that provided power for 1.5 million homes. That has to be made up and wind and solar are not up to the job. So far all our energy expansion has been via natural gas. Burning natural gas in a car has to be more efficient than burning natural gas to generate electricity to store in a battery for an EV. Plus our rates are going up, up, up. My neighbor gets about 70 miles on a full charge of his Nissan Leaf. Under the new rates that will be about $7 per charge or 10 cents per mile. The Tesla will cost you about $25 to charge in San Diego. No big deal if you can afford a $100k car.

The company said it is using these letters to alert customers before prices go up on Sept. 1.

Donovan said the rate increase will be the same, but the bill impact will be different based on each customer's usage. The example within the letter stated that the impact will be $15 more for a bill typically costing $100, and $75 more for a bill normally costing $250.

The closure of San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station has &#147;created an untimely reduction in our region&#146;s energy resources," explained SDG&E in the letter.

http://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/SDGE-Rates-to-Increase-for-Some-Residents-- 213016021.html

anthonyp

Just opened my Vanguard account, as I couldn`t find any broker who would deal with their funds....I guess no commission for them..

Charlie I wonder if you can see your scottrade streaming quotes with your aapl products? Mine stopped working due to Adobe not being recognized by aapl....Tony

kyfdx

What Vanguard funds are you looking at?

Our 401Ks are there, and just rolled my wife's cash balance pension into an IRA there, as well. Still trying to decide what funds to put that in.

circlew

I have Vanguard for years. Mostly S&P 500, some Health Care fund and US Growth and Growth Index, and Windsor II fund. Also have some Primecap in the 401K at Vanguard.

cyclone4

Tony,

I use E Trade and not Scottrade. I have no trouble getting live streaming quotes on the MacBook Pro for the stocks I own through E Trade. Mine uses Java plugin for live quotes.