The Stock Market and Investing

tagman

Charlie - the market and sunspot theory. Both fit your area of expertis and this guy sees Dow 5000.Where do they find these people. We seem to have more and more extremists and fewer and fewer people with common sense.

Truly amazing! The shame of it is that QUACKS like this guy make a lot of money by deceiving people.

Hey, I sure want to know who was that QUACK, when the Dow was around 14,000, that predicted the Dow would hit 7,000 and get shredded to half it's value?

That son-of-a-QUACK turned out to be right. Did he use the sunspot theory? Or was it some sort of plantetary alignment problem? Or maybe a small crack in the space/time continuum? :surprise:

TM

cyclone4

Hey, I sure want to know who was that QUACK, when the Dow was around 14,000, that predicted the Dow would hit 7,000 and get shredded to half it's value?

Don't you know? That was all knowing, all powerful, Karnak the Magnificent. Shame on you Tag, for calling Karnak a QUACK .

tagman

LOL.

Actually... I miss Karnak.

IMO, Johnny Carson was the best... by lightyears.

TM

cyclone4

I wonder why QLIK has stalled out and in fact dipped a little. GS, any news? The market is soaring today but QLIK is lower.

laurasdada

I live about 7 miles away from Gillette, was there yesterday shopping at Patriots Place (as Deion Branch referred to it, "The Strip Mall!").

Your bro is one lucky ducky (riffing on the "Quack" postings in between your post and this reply)! The only thing I've "won" at Gillette are T-shirts for donating blood! Good blood drives, Pats cheerleaders and former players as well as door prizes. While I don't win any door prizes, nor the heart of any of the cheerleaders, I win in a much bigger way by donating a pint...

Yes, the IWC Ingeniuer is a nice piece of work. I think I'm partial to IWC as its roots tie back to New England.

Big game Monday night, I'm sure y'all will be watching and rooting on the Pats and admiring the flowing locks of our young, unknown QB. Hope he makes it, finds a nice girl and settles down...

tagman

The market is soaring today but QLIK is lower.

Charlie,

QLIK has often performed in contrast to the overall market. IMO, I do think it has taken a breath, but will eventually go further north if they report decent financials.

As far as the overall market... don't forget my prediction.

TM

cyclone4

As far as the overall market... don't forget my prediction.

I agreed with your prediction, but I cannot remember what the exact prediction was by the end of the year. Was it about 11,700 or was it very close to 12,000? In any case, I am quite optimistic about the market and the overall economy as I have been stating all along. I know that I gave a prediction that the Dow would hit at least 13,000 some time in 2011. After all, Karnak the Magnificent gave me the insider trading information .

tagman

I agreed with your prediction, but I cannot remember what the exact prediction was by the end of the year.

My prediction has not changed. When we all first started predicting, I posted that I expected a 11,250 - 11,500 trading range for the Dow at the end of this year.

At one point, I subsequently posted that it wouldn't surprise me if the Dow hit 12,000 by year's end, but I did not change my original prediction.

At another recent point in time, Len expressed some concerns for the market, and asked if I wanted to change my prediction, and I posted again that I was not going to change my original predicition.

IMO, it doesn't make sense to change our predictions, or else they wouldn't really be predictions anymore.

Even though you are one of the most optimistic voices here, my prediction was in fact the most optimistic one at the time we all posted them.

I still like my original prediction, and as we get further along into December it will be interesting to see what happens. If I am wrong, I would prefer it would be because I wasn't optimistic enough, as opposed to being overly optimistic.

Like you, I feel very good about the market, otherwise I'd be up to my old tricks and I would have gotten out. I am in the market in a big way and I am really looking forward to the next big run up.

I agree with you that next year is going to be terrific for the market... I hope your prediction of 13,000 comes by summer, so that we can hit 14,000 by next Christmas!... (that is NOT my prediction at this time.)... LOL!

Give my thanks to Karnac.

TM

ljflx

Charlie, dear old buddy - I fully concede to your psychological knowledge of the US consumer. You absolutely nailed it.

http://www.newsweek.com/2010/11/29/the-urge-to-splurge-is-creeping-back.html

cyclone4

Charlie, dear old buddy - I fully concede to your psychological knowledge of the US consumer. You absolutely nailed it.

It was once again Karnak that gave me the scoop about the American consumer . Seriously though, this obviously does not at all surprise me. The proof (if you needed proof) was Black Friday. Thank you for the compliment Len.

gagrice

I am reading reports that many big investors will cash out this year to take advantage of the lower CG tax. I know we took less on a farm and our other home to make sure we got the lower CG. What is the consensus?

ljflx

Well that and profit taking by funds is what I feared for the year-end and why I thought we could see a sub 11K dow. I was less worried by cap gains as folks are so ST now. I saw the debt issue in Europe as giving them business cover for getting out. But I like the overall fundamentals of the market, just not as much as Tag and Charlie.

gagrice

You are probably right about most of the gains being ST. I think more in LT CG real estate, so worry about that. About 50% of our investments are in IRA accounts. So they will not be affected by selling ST. Right now I am ahead of the 2007 peak in my IRA and would like to preserve that level. So I may sell way back till we see what happens.

ljflx

Goldman just came out with a bullish call of the S&P reaching 1450 by 2011 year end, which would be a 19% gain over yesterdays closing value.

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/111479/christmas-call-for-ana- lysts?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=

houdini1

I have a feeling that Congress will get all the tax issues sorted out before year end...but if that does not happen we will probably see a big sell off.

tagman

Goldman just came out with a bullish call of the S&P reaching 1450 by 2011 year end, which would be a 19% gain over yesterdays closing value.

Confirms my bullish perspective. I have never invested soooo much in equities as I have recently in these past months.

TM

ljflx

One thing we need to keep an eye on, per an article in today's NY Times is the terrible financial condition of the states. Had dinner last night with a big crowd of us and a friend of mine who trades on Wall Street sat next to me and he thinks we can reach 13K next year so long as N Korea is tamed at least into doing nothing further, there's no major terrorist attacks and he also brought up the states as something to keep an eye out for.

Banks must be getting looser and looser. I am inundated by 5 year ARM's around or just under 3%. I'm only at 3.125 as it is but my 5 year ARM period is over for a few years now so I'm year to year and am tempted to go for another 5 year ARM to put low rates to rest as I'll pay any mortgage balance off after that at any sign of higher rates.

BTW - the last time I sat side by side with this friend at a similar dinner was the night before the Giants beat the Patriots in the SB and both of us declared the Giants would win.

tagman

One thing we need to keep an eye on, per an article in today's NY Times is the terrible financial condition of the states.

YES! I read a similar article this weekend, and there is no doubt that it's a looming problem.

To be frank with you, I think the market is going to make a huge gain over the near term, but after that... watch out!! Unless somehow (and I don't know how) the fiscal mess can be fixed, it's inevitable that there will be casualties. I will seriously consider getting out of the market after the next big advance if I see that there is no progress towards getting the country's fiscal house in order.

The problem here is that we are now in the second half of Obama's term. There is modest progress in some areas, and some serious issues have developed in other areas. For example, this Obama-care health-care program is going to implode, IMO. And, with the recent injection of more Republicans, it's hard to say what will happen. If the Republicans start to fix too many things, then Obama will get much of the credit and increase his chance of getting re-elected... which could spell serious long-term trouble for the economy, national security, and world stability. It's a tough situation. Everyone wants to look good and come out on top as we approach a presidential election in two short years from now.

In the meantime, the Fed is experimenting on all of us, and while I tend to like Uncle Ben, it's really a huge gamble with all the Q.E.

So, I expect a significant short-term market advance, but there are soooo many issues, domestic as well as international, that I am seriously concerned on a long-term outlook. Like I said... if they don't start fixing our country's fiscal affairs... watch out!

TM

circlew

Agreed, and Sarah is not the answer long term. Romney would be my choice.

Regards,
OW

houdini1

Len, oil hit $90. today. What say ye? Low supplies, or speculators?

fintail

Definitely speculators. Dollar seems to be holding up ok, no positive enough economic news out there to warrant an increase. Precious metals are still ballooning too.

gagrice

Silver is in the stratosphere. The silver mines have to be gearing up big time. I sold a bunch of silver quarters last year when it was about $16. I thought that was close to tops. The Vietnamese fellow I sold to has been after the last stash I found of silver. I have not heard from him in a while. Maybe cashed it all in and took a world cruise. I should sell him the rest if he is still buying. I keep thinking gold and silver is topped out. I'm not going to sell any gold. Just hang onto it.

fintail

I sold $500 face when it was just below $20. I thought I was cashing in at the right time. Oops!

I am going to hold what I have left, but it isn't much compared to what I sold. I do think PMs are in a real bubble right now.

gagrice

Metals have had bubbles before. There is a lot of cash looking for a place to go. I have no desire to buy more gold. Owning a gold mine might be nice.

ljflx

We are at record inventory levels on oil and we have more speculation in oil today than when it was at $147 a barrel. In the US I don't see any great demand until the hosuing inventory gets resolved and unemployment falls. So everything else is on demand for futures and unless the oil inventory declines I'm not sure where they are going to store it. Again - why they allow the leverage that exists in this market is beyond me. Let them put up .50-.75 per dollar invested instead of a nickel to a dime and I wonder how fast that speculation will fall.

imidazol97

The various discussions have been working for me, other than one weird problem trying to post a reply.

tagman

Whoa! My post disappeared!! This is now my fifth attempt to post.

I am positive that there used to be more posts here, and they are gone and have disappeared as well.

Also, this new look to the site is ugly.

TM

imidazol97

#2457 post was successful.

Maybe your earlier posts did what one of mine did. While posting a text box appeared like I would get in Microsoft Word complete with the corner boxes and the midside boxes to use for sizing the text box. My typing had disappeared downwas below two text boxes. I found it but was unable to complete it until I cancelled and did a replay again.

The textbox handles and all haven't happened again.

tagman

Maybe your earlier posts did what one of mine did. While posting a text box appeared like I would get in Microsoft Word complete with the corner boxes and the midside boxes to use for sizing the text box. My typing had disappeared downwas below two text boxes. I found it but was unable to complete it until I cancelled and did a reply again.

Yes, it did that and more... multiple times. It was, and is, really difficult to deal with. I don't like it at all.

TM

gagrice

Obama is taking a lot of flack for doing what he said he would do during the campaign. He is finally reaching across the aisle.

tagman

Damned if he does and damned if he doesn't.

Did you hear some of those idiots speaking? It's absolutely amazing just how pathetic some of those hard-core spendaholic/taxaholic Democrats really are! (I said "some"... lol). I have no respect for them whatsoever after listening to them. Totally insane.

TM

gagrice

Well at least the truth is out for all to see. It is not the GOP that refuses to negotiate or compromise. I thought the GOP gave up a lot with the Unemployment extension. That is no small chunk of change. I believe it to be counter productive personally.

houdini1

Just doing a test post to see how it works !! Looks like a couple of days posts have disappeared but no big deal.

gagrice

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has ended a marathon filibuster of the proposed tax compromise, ceding control of the Senate floor after more than 8 1/2 hours.

The Socialist Senator from Vermont is not much of a force. His filibuster to block taxes only lasted 8 hours. I think I could ramble that long and not say anything.
He seems to be clueless as to who creates jobs and who benefits.

Libs are just whiners over losing the election. Maybe Bubba's being President for half an hour will get the Dems moving to a compromise and let Obama get to his Hawaii Vacation on time.

ljflx

C'ant stand the layout. Tony and I responded to the oil market and surging oil prices so I hope both posts are in or that folks read it.

Citi headed toward 5 now and finally has a PE.

D'ont know if anyone noted it but one of Madoffs sons committed suicide overnight:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40617952/ns/us_news-life/?gt1=43001

gagrice

It is hard to imagine the Madoff sons did not know they were part of a giant fraud scheme. Sounds like they were still living the high life on Other People's Money.

fintail

Isn't that what that class is all about?

I wonder what oil and gas will do in the next week, and then right after the new year.

gagrice

On 12/11/2008 I filled my tank at Costco and the price was $1.57 per gallon. Yesterday the price was $3.10. That is a 49% increase over 2 years. When fuel goes up everything goes up. That is inflation. It also did not help that the administration has stopped a lot of production in the gulf. That gave OPEC the opportunity to stick it to US.

circlew

You are seeing balance before your very eyes and despite kicking and screaming, it's a done deal.

The rest is theater at it's worst!

Obama was pretty "Slick" this past week, don't you agree? Nice play all around.

I never thought I'd see an extremely well-thought out political move from the Prez...

Regards,
OW

circlew

Looks like we just found out the truth....

Regards,
OW

circlew

The hidden story you just told by your post depicts the fact the the recession in energy and the business world is long gone.

Energy is the driving force.

Hurts to pay but the greasy yardstick shows up, up and away.

Apply to the market and jobs WILL follow. You will see.

I was WRONG.

DOW 11,500 on 12/31/10!!

Regards,
OW

fintail

Hasn't your income increased by 49% in that time? And we can see that inflation simply by visiting a grocery store these days.

All via speculation so a few can reap undeserved fortunes, the forces behind it deserve to be strung up in a public spectacle.

gagrice

If he was innocent, which I doubt, it is sad he paid the ultimate price for his dad. Still, he may have not wanted to face living like us common folk. Doesn't sound like the cash flow was down, handing the guy that looks after your Land Rover a $400 tip. Hopefully his 2 year old did not see him hanging. That could traumatize the kid for life. Worse than having to live a middle class existence.

gagrice

My income is now stagnant. No SS raises for two years. No cost of living increase according to the keeper of the facts. I thought during the last oil run up the Feds were going to get their buddy Soros under control on such nonsense. Something to do with having some place to take delivery of the futures you purchase. Did someone say margins were as much as 90%??? I thought that was outlawed?

dieselone

Hasn't your income increased by 49% in that time? And we can see that inflation simply by visiting a grocery store these days.

Nope, but it didn't drop either when gas went from over $4 gal to under $2.

Regarding groceries, we have a household of 4 with two growing kids, year to date vs the same period last year we've spent roughly $500 more on groceries. Considering our kids have been packing lunches for school vs buying school lunches last year and we've done more of entertaining this year, I'd say it's a wash.

On a side note, just booked a weeks vacation to take the kids one last time to Disney. To my surprise, all of the Disney resorts were pretty much filled up for the week we wanted in March (no wonder the disney stock my kids own has performed well). Flights have sure gone up. It will be nearly twice as much to fly to Florida from Illinois as it cost us to fly to Vegas last year. Might drive as we've always enjoyed a long road trip.

gagrice

Might drive as we've always enjoyed a long road trip.

I would drive, vs having my wife & daughters groped by some TSA person with an unknown background. Flying is not only expensive it is invasive with no good cause. Homeland security has proven to be anything but that. They cannot prevent a teenager from getting into the secure area and crawling into an airplane wheel well. He could have been a suicide bomber.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20101211/D9K1D21G0.html

dieselone

I tend to agree Gagrice. We've flown with the kids several times and going through security is always stressful. A few years ago my younger daughter went through the metal detector before my wife and I (that was not the plan). My wife, I, and our older daughter got stopped and our 4 year old daughter was on the other side crying while waiting for us to be allowed to go through. Not a fun experience.

Last year when we flew to Vegas we were separated from the kids (now older but still young 7 & 11) while we went through the body scanners. Now with enhanced security procedures it sounds like it will be even more of a PITA. Having my 8 & 12 year old daughters felt up and around by anyone isn't appealing in anyway.

tagman

It's way too late to be predicting the Dow for the end of this year. We are too close in time at this point. Try for next summer. Let's say July 4th.

Anyway, it looks like I may have had the closest prediction for the end of this year.. but we still have weeks to go. It's not over until it's over. Then we will know.

Again, at this point let's start predicting July 4th... we can do this over the next couple months.

TM

cdnpinhead

Where I come from, a change from $1.57 to $3.10 would be a 97.4% increase, not 49%. However, a change from $3.10 to $1.57 would be a 49% decrease.

FWIW.

gagrice

You are correct. It has almost doubled in price over the last 2 years.