We can compare incomes to gas prices over virtually any period in recent history, few have kept up unless they are in the public sector or Wall Street. Really, that can apply to virtually every cost of living metric, anecdotal grocery bills excluded. More of that widening socio-economic gap at work, a great future it will bring.
The speculator class behind these fluctuations are the pirates of the new century.
@#$%$#@...It was 9 degrees this morning in the KC area with -10 wind chill and a couple of inches of blowing snow. The big storm was north of us. Very nice sitting in front of the fireplace though.
I still can't complain too much as it was 60 degrees on Friday and I played golf.
Weather is brutal here. 24 degrees and dropping with 30+ mph winds blowing around a few inches of snow. Certainly not as bad as the weather further north.
Keep that cold and winds in Illinois. Don't send it across Indiana into Ohio. We're happy at 27 and slight wind with 2 inches on the ground and flurries.
Yeah... I'm watching the San Diego Chargers spanking the Kansas City Chiefs. Looks like we've got the nation's best weather today, here in Southern California. Here in Malibu, it's rare to run the a/c or the heater. Great micro climate. Most days comfy.
Go Chargers! Hell... we have no fooball team in Los Angeles.
I can only hope that the Chiefs are using the old rope-a-dope on the Chargers. Running up and down the field like that, they should tire out soon now !!
Seattle area today is a balmy 10 degrees or so above normal (mid 50s) and we've had nearly 4" of rain in the past 27 hours. Messy.
Sometimes rain is worse than snow. Before our miniblizzard arrived, it poured for two days while it was 35 degrees. Yuck. Now everything is frozen.
You have to love the weather here in the midwest. On Veterans day it was 70 degrees out and I was fishing with my daughter and FIL on the pond we live on. Now I probably can walk across it, it's been froze over for a week or two.
I guess on the plus side we might be doing some early ice skating this year.
I'll take the dreary consistency here. Although in this La Nina year, it has been the same in the PNW as well...November started with a 75 degree record day, 3 weeks later subfreezing ice and snow, now warmth and drenching rains. Mother nature has been hitting the bottle again.
Well the Patriots look awesome and unbeatable like a few years ago. You're going to need a fabulous front four that pressures Brady to beat them and the only team that seems to have that is the Giants. Oh yeah - that was the only team that could and did beat them a few years ago too.
Interesting weather model data today. We had 22" of snow last year in central NJ on 12/19 (some parts of south jersey had 30") and today's weather models show the potential of a repeat of that type of event on 12/19-20th. Charlie??
Didn't realize this but Mark Madoff killed himself with only his 2 year old son in the house and on his father's arrest date. How can you possibly commit suicide and leave your 2 year old all alone?? And did he likely dit it on his father's arrest date as a message to him.
The international flavor of this derivative clearinghouse system is disconcerting. No amount of US legislation can effectively control what goes on at a bank in Germany or the UK.
Not so with derivatives. For many, there is no central exchange, like the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq, where the prices of derivatives are listed. Instead, when a company or an investor wants to buy a derivative contract for, say, oil or wheat or securitized mortgages, an order is placed with a trader at a bank. The trader matches that order with someone selling the same type of derivative.
Banks explain that many derivatives trades have to work this way because they are often customized, unlike shares of stock. One share of Google is the same as any other. But the terms of an oil derivatives contract can vary greatly.
And the profits on most derivatives are masked. In most cases, buyers are told only what they have to pay for the derivative contract, say $25 million. That amount is more than the seller gets, but how much more — $5,000, $25,000 or $50,000 more — is unknown. That’s because the seller also is told only the amount he will receive. The difference between the two is the bank’s fee and profit. So, the bigger the difference, the better for the bank — and the worse for the customers.
An area of banking I was completely in the dark about. Thanks for the article.
I agree. Once the world dumps the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency the jig is up. No more printing money to delay paying the piper. Very scary for all of us.
It took me a while to catch up on the reading here from the past few days.
There has been more corruption and manipulation in commodity trading and this derivative stuff than anyone can possibly imagine. What I try to do when I trade commodities is to think how the manipulators will react to certain situations and then take appropriate action. The manipulation the past couple years has actually increased in my opinion and it has made it more difficult to make a profitable trade.
On the weather front, it was wicked Saturday night across most of the state of IA and especially up in MN. Here in Des Moines, it was not that big of a deal. We got a couple inches of snow but visibility was very low (near zero at times (Saturday night) due to winds gusting to over 50 and sometimes reaching 60 mph. To the north and west of central IA, it was a different world. Roads were closed since they had to pull all the snow plows off the roads because there was zero visibility. Northern IA and MN picked up between 9 and 22 inches of snow. As you all heard by now, the Metrodome roof collapsed due to the weight of the snow.
Well the Patriots look awesome and unbeatable like a few years ago. You're going to need a fabulous front four that pressures Brady to beat them and the only team that seems to have that is the Giants. Oh yeah - that was the only team that could and did beat them a few years ago too.
Len,
What excuse are the Patriot haters going to use this year for the Pats amazing success? A few years ago, it was spy-gate if you remember. Their winning percentage has actually improved, if anything, since early 2007 when the spy-gate stuff was brought forth. I have said it before and I will say it again. When it is all said and done, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady will be known as the greatest coach and best QB of all time.
When it is all said and done, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady will be known as the greatest coach and best QB of all time.
I think they are up against Joe Montana and Bill Walsh. Cannot leave out Chuck Noll and Terry Bradshaw. Only time will tell. Will NE beat the Steelers in the playoffs? I am sort of cheering for the Chargers. Though I lost most of my interest in Football when Joe Montana retired. I don't even have a TV hooked up to cable anymore.
"As you all heard by now, the Metrodome roof collapsed due to the weight of the snow."
That was a dry powdery snow (which is light in weight) so how could it have brought down that roof? In fact I'd have thought that most of the snow would have blown off the roof due to strong winds. Blizzards around here leave rooftops with little or no snow. I've heard that they used fire hoses in an arrempt to melt the snow on the roof but I d'ont know if that's true. if they did that at the temps that were in place they'd be crazy. But there seemed to be a lot of ice in that collapse and that would have required water to be added to whatever snow was up there. I wonder if this is an operational screw up much more so than a snow issue.
Montana was deadly accurate and the Walsh offense fit him like a glove. But his arm strength was weak and he could never match the bombs that Bradshaw and Brady throw with so much accuracy.
Brady is the best I ever saw and this from a Giant fan that also likes the Jets though I hate the inept and immature management.
Did you see that trip that the Jets conditioning coach threw yesterday. Sickening and as low as it gets in sports, Luckily the Dolphin player wasn't hurt but he almost was. Blatantly stupid and immature and he should be fired. That arises from the behavior of the coach and almost everyone in NY is tired of his swagger and bragging. It has gotten old very fast.
I think it was more the last minute scrambles that I liked about Montana. He also had Rice that was arguably the best receiver of all of them to catch his passes. I never was a SF fan. Just loved that combination of players and coach. I also remember cheering for the Patriots in their first Super Bowl win. It was the Patriotic thing to do that year.
That was a very cheap shot and firing the coach would be best for the game. It is so easy to get hurt in Football without someone on the sidelines contributing.
I don't know if I see that happening though. What would replace it? Euro is on very shaky ground and has a limited future - especially when upcoming social strife rocks the EU. Yuan is a house of cards and can't last forever either. What else is there? I see an Amero-style currency as more likely than the world running from the dollar. Either way, the same forces win, and they aren't you or me.
Paying down that piper is easy - write it off like everyone else has.
I'm pretty sure the Metrodome roof is a fabric roof, stretched over a framework, and held up partially by air pressure.. It's not really a load-bearing type of arrangement.
I think this is actually the fourth time that the roof has collapsed in this manner.
I see an Amero-style currency as more likely than the world running from the dollar.
The fact that our dollars are actually Federal Reserve Notes, make them shaky as well. In light of the push by people like Ron Paul. What would be the outcome if by some miracle of legislation the Fed is disbanded? Would not our dollars just become paper with no backing? At that point it would be the other statement on the note, "In God We Trust".
What do you mean, become? In reality, that's all they are, and really what all paper money is - nothing backing it but promises made by people who are historically not very honest. However, I can't go to the store and buy much with an old double eagle, so I am kind of stuck.
Fiat currency by definition is kind of a masquerade. The dollar is shaky, but so are all of its peers.
I don't think we could fall back on the Gold standard. At current prices the US has less than $400 billion in gold reserves. I just read that there are $960 billion in Federal reserve notes in circulation. The fact that the whole World is in the same dilemma makes it less of an issue. Best to collect vintage Mercedes as a hedge against a shaky dollar. ;-)
When it is all said and done, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady will be known as the greatest coach and best QB of all time.
Could be... but certainly not yet. It's statistically pretty clear that Dan Marino is the best quarterback of all time. No doubt about this. Yes, Brady is well on his way, but it hasn't happened yet.
Gold standard is not realistic with current population and future trends. Some places hold more gold per note than the US, but they are all based on promises over reality. This is one area where I am not really down on the US - it is no worse off than competitors, everyone has some serious issues looming ahead.
heh...the only cars that appreciate faster than inflation and maintenance costs are ones way beyond my price range. However, some collectible items have been holding steady...I don't regret my collection of vintage toys, auction prices keep rising.
I think they are up against Joe Montana and Bill Walsh. Cannot leave out Chuck Noll and Terry Bradshaw. Only time will tell. Will NE beat the Steelers in the playoffs?
This is why I said "when it is all said and done". I am of the opinion, that the Patriots are unstoppable now. In fact, they are improving (especially the defense) by the week. So, to answer your question, the Patriots will beat whatever team they meet in the playoffs.
That was a dry powdery snow (which is light in weight) so how could it have brought down that roof? In fact I'd have thought that most of the snow would have blown off the roof due to strong winds.
Well, believe it or not Len, that was not a dry, powdery snow in Minneapolis. The surface low was to their south and there was a lot of moist air coming in from the northeast in the lower levels and that actually made the snow quite wet. Temperatures during Saturday were in the 20s in Minneapolis when the snow was falling at its greatest intensity. Additionally, the north to northeast winds during Saturday at Minneapolis were only blowing at about 20-30 mph. It was later Saturday night that the winds shifted to the northwest and became considerably stronger. The snow ended at Minneapolis by about 8:00 PM Saturday evening. Now, if you are talking about western IA, eastern NE, and SD, that was the dry powdery type snow that was blowing around like crazy with Northwest winds over 60 mph at times and temperatures in the single digits.
I have a great idea . Let's start talking about the stock market and how all you gurus think it will behave in the near and distant future.
Personally, I remain quite optimist that the U.S. economy will continue to slowly grow as all the "Joe Blows" out there will continue the recent upswing in spending. All the average U.S. consumer needed to hear was a bit of good news (they have been getting it the past few months) to start spending once again. One feeds on the other. As the economy shows signs of life, the consumer spends. This in turn helps the economy to continue to grow. Very slowly the job front will also improve.
I continue to think that by sometime next year, the Dow will reach at least 13,000. I believe TM was taking predictions a week or so ago on what the Dow will be on July 4, 2011. OK, my fearless "forecast" (not weather) is for the Dow to be at 12,775 on that great day.
I like your predictions on the DOW and can see that happening as well. I am not so optimistic on the jobs situation. I do believe there are jobs available. Just not as many in the middle class positions paying $50k to $70k. High paying engineering and medical positions will continue to grow. Low paying jobs are always available to those willing to take a cut in pay and work harder for less. Manufacturing jobs will continue to migrate to places that are factory friendly. Places like CA will continue to shed jobs that are not clean and green. The traffic at the malls would indicate people are at least looking.
I am thankful my 46 years in the workforce is behind me.
I feel optimistic as well. Many that I know in a variety of industries are beginning to see more work and believe it or not more pay.
Winnebago Industries just reported revenue increased 53% vs last year. People are looking to spend money again.
My wife and I will be hitting the winter boat shows in a few months with checkbook in hand. It's time to upgrade.
I'm concerned about jobs and housing. The housing and construction industry still seems to be slow, but deflation is a hard spiral to break. Maybe interest rates rising will get people to stop waiting for lower rates and lower prices.
Granted we still have potholes to avoid, but I don't buy all of the doom and gloom. For my wife and I, I'm 99% confident 2011 will be a great year for us anyway.
10% upside on the Dow next year would be great, so around 13K would be my prediction as well.
I think you have pointed to two industries that are American and will continue to be that. Recreational Vehicles and small pleasure boats. With a lot of boomers retiring and hitting the road RV sales should become bigger than ever.
I fell in love with a lake and private subdivision in Indiana. Christmas lake has affordable homes and I could picture my wife and I out on a nice pontoon boat all summer. Me fishing and her reading her books. It would be close enough for my daughter and family to spend weekends. Then maybe an RV to wander the warmer winter climates. Yes life is good.
I think you have pointed to two industries that are American and will continue to be that. Recreational Vehicles and small pleasure boats. With a lot of boomers retiring and hitting the road RV sales should become bigger than ever.
Absolutely and it's just not boomers. We keep our travel trailer along with our boat at a lakeside seasonal campsite in southern Illinois. My wife and I are 39 and 40 and we are not youngest by far that enjoy camping and boating and boating on the weekends. The best part is no internet access and barely any cell phone coverage. The kids actually have to play.
You don't have to spend big money on a boat or camper (think used) to enjoy quality time with your family. My daughter's just commented the other day that they can't wait to go to the lake for some swimming, skiing, and s'mores:).
I've heard of Christmas Lake, from what I know, it's a nice area.
Christmas Lake is gated and very clean. Most of the people are year round residents or vacation homes. The Key Realtors gave us a wonderful tour. We seriously considered a nice waterfront A frame with 3 BR 2 baths. Owner was asking $150k. HOA dues are 385 per year. She told us that many are owned by doctors from Evansville Indiana for weekend getaways. It was probably a good investment. Not listed any longer so I assume it sold. So we are still looking for investments. We have enough in the stock market. I feel safer with real estate even with the recent crash of that market. I have watched real estate markets in CA, AZ, NV, HI and AK over the last 30 years. They can go up as fast as they go down. Always seem to get back around. AK & HI are the most volatile.
Don't assume it's sold. I made a few trips looking at property in the Monticello, IN area with my inlaws. They were looking for properties on lake Freeman and several were not going to be relisted for the winter. In the spring, you may find it listed again.
There are several nice lake communities throughout Indiana, I'm sure you'll find something you'll like and the prices will be extremely low compared to what you're used to in California.
That could be the case. I only see about 3 lakefront homes today and there was a dozen when we visited in October. I can buy a great home in Indiana for the price of a total fixer in San Diego. I have only been watching SW Indiana & NW KY for a little over a year. I do not see near the volatility we have gone through in the West. Prices do not fluctuate a lot there. Still a quite a few foreclosures from people being only slightly upside down. Here in San Diego it is not uncommon for people to owe twice the current value of a home. An acquaintance is in the process of letting the bank have his place. He owes $420k and the house next door slightly bigger and nicer just sold for $225K. Until the banks sell their huge inventories the housing market will not start to recover.
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2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
In contrast, it is hot here, and will reach 80 degrees here today. I just turned on the air conditioning... in the middle of December. Seems strange.
TM
The speculator class behind these fluctuations are the pirates of the new century.
More 21st century pirates
I still can't complain too much as it was 60 degrees on Friday and I played golf.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Go Chargers! Hell... we have no fooball team in Los Angeles.
TM
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
A friend of mine who recently moved to suburban Atlanta called me this morning to tell me it was snowing there.
Sometimes rain is worse than snow. Before our miniblizzard arrived, it poured for two days while it was 35 degrees. Yuck. Now everything is frozen.
You have to love the weather here in the midwest. On Veterans day it was 70 degrees out and I was fishing with my daughter and FIL on the pond we live on. Now I probably can walk across it, it's been froze over for a week or two.
I guess on the plus side we might be doing some early ice skating this year.
I did. According to sources I know most large trades are made at 5-10 cents per dollar.
From Wikepedia:
To minimize credit risk to the exchange, traders must post a margin or a performance bond, typically 5%-15% of the contract's value.
Didn't realize this but Mark Madoff killed himself with only his 2 year old son in the house and on his father's arrest date. How can you possibly commit suicide and leave your 2 year old all alone?? And did he likely dit it on his father's arrest date as a message to him.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/12/business/12madoff.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/12/business/12advantage.html?ref=todayspaper
Not so with derivatives. For many, there is no central exchange, like the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq, where the prices of derivatives are listed. Instead, when a company or an investor wants to buy a derivative contract for, say, oil or wheat or securitized mortgages, an order is placed with a trader at a bank. The trader matches that order with someone selling the same type of derivative.
Banks explain that many derivatives trades have to work this way because they are often customized, unlike shares of stock. One share of Google is the same as any other. But the terms of an oil derivatives contract can vary greatly.
And the profits on most derivatives are masked. In most cases, buyers are told only what they have to pay for the derivative contract, say $25 million. That amount is more than the seller gets, but how much more — $5,000, $25,000 or $50,000 more — is unknown. That’s because the seller also is told only the amount he will receive. The difference between the two is the bank’s fee and profit. So, the bigger the difference, the better for the bank — and the worse for the customers.
An area of banking I was completely in the dark about. Thanks for the article.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
There has been more corruption and manipulation in commodity trading and this derivative stuff than anyone can possibly imagine. What I try to do when I trade commodities is to think how the manipulators will react to certain situations and then take appropriate action. The manipulation the past couple years has actually increased in my opinion and it has made it more difficult to make a profitable trade.
On the weather front, it was wicked Saturday night across most of the state of IA and especially up in MN. Here in Des Moines, it was not that big of a deal. We got a couple inches of snow but visibility was very low (near zero at times (Saturday night) due to winds gusting to over 50 and sometimes reaching 60 mph. To the north and west of central IA, it was a different world. Roads were closed since they had to pull all the snow plows off the roads because there was zero visibility. Northern IA and MN picked up between 9 and 22 inches of snow. As you all heard by now, the Metrodome roof collapsed due to the weight of the snow.
Len,
What excuse are the Patriot haters going to use this year for the Pats amazing success? A few years ago, it was spy-gate if you remember. Their winning percentage has actually improved, if anything, since early 2007 when the spy-gate stuff was brought forth. I have said it before and I will say it again. When it is all said and done, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady will be known as the greatest coach and best QB of all time.
I think they are up against Joe Montana and Bill Walsh. Cannot leave out Chuck Noll and Terry Bradshaw. Only time will tell. Will NE beat the Steelers in the playoffs? I am sort of cheering for the Chargers. Though I lost most of my interest in Football when Joe Montana retired. I don't even have a TV hooked up to cable anymore.
That was a dry powdery snow (which is light in weight) so how could it have brought down that roof? In fact I'd have thought that most of the snow would have blown off the roof due to strong winds. Blizzards around here leave rooftops with little or no snow. I've heard that they used fire hoses in an arrempt to melt the snow on the roof but I d'ont know if that's true. if they did that at the temps that were in place they'd be crazy. But there seemed to be a lot of ice in that collapse and that would have required water to be added to whatever snow was up there. I wonder if this is an operational screw up much more so than a snow issue.
Brady is the best I ever saw and this from a Giant fan that also likes the Jets though I hate the inept and immature management.
Did you see that trip that the Jets conditioning coach threw yesterday. Sickening and as low as it gets in sports, Luckily the Dolphin player wasn't hurt but he almost was. Blatantly stupid and immature and he should be fired. That arises from the behavior of the coach and almost everyone in NY is tired of his swagger and bragging. It has gotten old very fast.
That was a very cheap shot and firing the coach would be best for the game. It is so easy to get hurt in Football without someone on the sidelines contributing.
Paying down that piper is easy - write it off like everyone else has.
I think this is actually the fourth time that the roof has collapsed in this manner.
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The fact that our dollars are actually Federal Reserve Notes, make them shaky as well. In light of the push by people like Ron Paul. What would be the outcome if by some miracle of legislation the Fed is disbanded? Would not our dollars just become paper with no backing? At that point it would be the other statement on the note, "In God We Trust".
Fiat currency by definition is kind of a masquerade. The dollar is shaky, but so are all of its peers.
Could be... but certainly not yet. It's statistically pretty clear that Dan Marino is the best quarterback of all time. No doubt about this. Yes, Brady is well on his way, but it hasn't happened yet.
TM
heh...the only cars that appreciate faster than inflation and maintenance costs are ones way beyond my price range. However, some collectible items have been holding steady...I don't regret my collection of vintage toys, auction prices keep rising.
This is why I said "when it is all said and done". I am of the opinion, that the Patriots are unstoppable now. In fact, they are improving (especially the defense) by the week. So, to answer your question, the Patriots will beat whatever team they meet in the playoffs.
Well, believe it or not Len, that was not a dry, powdery snow in Minneapolis. The surface low was to their south and there was a lot of moist air coming in from the northeast in the lower levels and that actually made the snow quite wet. Temperatures during Saturday were in the 20s in Minneapolis when the snow was falling at its greatest intensity. Additionally, the north to northeast winds during Saturday at Minneapolis were only blowing at about 20-30 mph. It was later Saturday night that the winds shifted to the northwest and became considerably stronger. The snow ended at Minneapolis by about 8:00 PM Saturday evening. Now, if you are talking about western IA, eastern NE, and SD, that was the dry powdery type snow that was blowing around like crazy with Northwest winds over 60 mph at times and temperatures in the single digits.
Regards,
OW
Regards,
OW
Regards,
OW
Big IF.
Go Big Blue!
Regards,
OW
Regards,
OW
Personally, I remain quite optimist that the U.S. economy will continue to slowly grow as all the "Joe Blows" out there will continue the recent upswing in spending. All the average U.S. consumer needed to hear was a bit of good news (they have been getting it the past few months) to start spending once again. One feeds on the other. As the economy shows signs of life, the consumer spends. This in turn helps the economy to continue to grow. Very slowly the job front will also improve.
I continue to think that by sometime next year, the Dow will reach at least 13,000. I believe TM was taking predictions a week or so ago on what the Dow will be on July 4, 2011. OK, my fearless "forecast" (not weather) is for the Dow to be at 12,775 on that great day.
I am thankful my 46 years in the workforce is behind me.
Winnebago Industries just reported revenue increased 53% vs last year. People are looking to spend money again.
My wife and I will be hitting the winter boat shows in a few months with checkbook in hand. It's time to upgrade.
I'm concerned about jobs and housing. The housing and construction industry still seems to be slow, but deflation is a hard spiral to break. Maybe interest rates rising will get people to stop waiting for lower rates and lower prices.
Granted we still have potholes to avoid, but I don't buy all of the doom and gloom. For my wife and I, I'm 99% confident 2011 will be a great year for us anyway.
10% upside on the Dow next year would be great, so around 13K would be my prediction as well.
I fell in love with a lake and private subdivision in Indiana. Christmas lake has affordable homes and I could picture my wife and I out on a nice pontoon boat all summer. Me fishing and her reading her books. It would be close enough for my daughter and family to spend weekends. Then maybe an RV to wander the warmer winter climates. Yes life is good.
Absolutely and it's just not boomers. We keep our travel trailer along with our boat at a lakeside seasonal campsite in southern Illinois. My wife and I are 39 and 40 and we are not youngest by far that enjoy camping and boating and boating on the weekends. The best part is no internet access and barely any cell phone coverage. The kids actually have to play.
You don't have to spend big money on a boat or camper (think used) to enjoy quality time with your family. My daughter's just commented the other day that they can't wait to go to the lake for some swimming, skiing, and s'mores:).
I've heard of Christmas Lake, from what I know, it's a nice area.
Don't assume it's sold. I made a few trips looking at property in the Monticello, IN area with my inlaws. They were looking for properties on lake Freeman and several were not going to be relisted for the winter. In the spring, you may find it listed again.
There are several nice lake communities throughout Indiana, I'm sure you'll find something you'll like and the prices will be extremely low compared to what you're used to in California.