I'll see your 12,775 and raise you 75... that puts my Dow prediction on July 4th at 12,850.
I am feeling a little better about Obama recently, due to his willingness to compromise on taxes. Maybe he has learned a lesson. His politics have improved a bit, but his ideology is still wrong.
Economy should improve in 2011... faster than predicted by most. Fed is still a wildcard. International issues could derail everything... let's hope not.
With the tax bill passed by the House and Senate and Obama expected to sign it today, I kind of expected the market to surge. Very mediocre response IMO. At least "C" & "F" are up a little. All you Apple fans, has AAPL hit its ceiling price?
With the tax bill passed by the House and Senate and Obama expected to sign it today, I kind of expected the market to surge. Very mediocre response IMO. At least "C" & "F" are up a little. All you Apple fans, has AAPL hit its ceiling price?
The reason the market is not doing much even though the tax bill is passed is because this was a foregone conclusion to the market for weeks that it was going to be passed. It was already factored in. As far as AAPL is concerned, I agree with TM. The run up on this stock is FAR from over.
This is a prediction from Porter Stansberry. It's fairly long, but I wonder if he's really on to something or just trying to sell more newsletters or both.
Low death tax for those with estates over $5000000.
Gives away 2% for those working of social security money--to be made up by the general fund. We already have a general fund that borrowed the money from the broke social security fund to give pork and benefits to those same people to whom the social security money will be paid out now and in the future. More money given away is not good for the deficits.
Without reviewing, it seems there are a couple of other give-aways that Obama got in there. The repubs should have settled for no tax hikes for the middle class up to $1000000. I don't see a good future in this tax bill.
If the S really HTF, no investments are going to save you.
That's pretty much how I see it. When these guys start talking about how everything is going to crash, but "here is a way to come out a head", I believe they are just preying on one's fear.
Guys and pitches like this have actually kept me from investing in gold and silver. They keep screaming that gold is going to $6000. per ounce but are trying really hard to sell it for $1300. an ounce. Hmmmm.....
My thoughts exactly to both of you - it's a way to sell. If this stuff was really going to go "to the moon" as they like to say, why would so many be willing to sell?
Granted, G and S have had nice run ups lately, but I can't believe these are permanent.
Guys and pitches like this have actually kept me from investing in gold and silver. They keep screaming that gold is going to $6000. per ounce but are trying really hard to sell it for $1300. an ounce. Hmmmm.....
I wouldn't touch gold and silver with a 10 foot pole. If gold actually goes to $6000 per ounce that would imply the world has imploded and EVERYONE would be in deep gaga.
I am at a point where selling our gold is tempting. Yet what do you do with the dollars you get? I sure would not buy more than we currently have. Though it has been a hedge against a dollar that continues to go down in value. gold may go a little higher. At the peak of 1980 gold hit $850 in 2010 dollars that is around $2200. Of course it was very short lived, and soon retreated below $500. The economy was in recession with lots of gloom and doom in that run up as well.
Long ago I learned that the big boys make the money in the markets. Trying to guess the future on certain items was for someone with much more knowledge than I have. For the gold, remember the adage about pigs getting slaughtered. Trying to hold to make the last bit of gain on an item often leads to the down side of the market. Why not sell the half, and hold the other half until you decide it's time.
Are you guys keeping up with the efforts being made to "claw back" the money lost in the Madoff debacle?
They are suing 80 year old widows, who were also wiped out, and who they know knew nothing about the fraud, for money they had received over the years as dividends, etc. if those payments exceeded the money invested. That could easily happen over 35 years. They appear to be suing the victims.
Additionally, as I understand it, no payments are actually being made to people who lost money thru "feeder funds" that had invested with Madoff. The money goes to the fund managers and they decide who gets any of it.
How would you like to lose 100% of your portfolio thru fraud and then be told you also have to pay back any dividends or withdrawals you had made over the years ?
Also the amount that was lost seems to keep changing from day to day, and it appears the money they are trying to recover actually exceeds the amount lost !!
How would you like to lose 100% of your portfolio thru fraud and then be told you also have to pay back any dividends or withdrawals you had made over the years ?
It's an outrage. If some big bankers had been victimized, they'd get a bailout.
BTW, we're hanging in Las Vegas this weekend... we had an $800 steak dinner last night. It was awesome... and the place was packed! Another sign the eonomy is definitely on the mend compared to 18 months ago.
The article I read.... is the trustee is getting back $7.2 BILLION from the widow of one investor, who had withdrew that much profit from his accounts over the last 30 years.. In fact, he was the #1 beneficiary of all of the stolen money in the Madoff scandal... Even more than Madoff.
That widow isn't destitute... she and her late husband were planning on leaving that money to charity..She still has many millions to live on. By recovering that money, people that actually lost money with Madoff, may recover 20%...
If you put in $100K with Madoff over the years, and removed $50K, then had your principal balance wiped out... and, the final calculation is that investors will receive 20% of their original investment back, then yes, you'll have to come up with $30K dollars... Otherwise, you are getting someone else's stolen funds to mitigate your own loss.
While I certainly feel sorry for anyone who had their money stolen, the fact that they outlived their husbands hardly makes them a handicapped class.. There weren't any poor people investing with Madoff.. Just wealthy people who didn't remember the adage about, "If it sounds to good to be true, then...."
If their life savings were entirely invested with one crook from NY, then that was just poor money management. The law requires that the trustee do his job.
It does look like some things are picking up, at least on the upper end. Luxury car sales are pretty strong too.
Today I was browsing in a higher end jewelry store, overheard the salesman saying this has been the season for watches - 50+ Rolex sales in the past month, many other high end brands also selling well - display cases had big gaps in the stock.
I hope you were entertaining about 20 people. A bill that big and I would have a heart attack
My wife and I stayed at the Wynn a few years ago. We had a delicious steak dinner at SW Steakhouse inside the Wynn while over looking the golf course. For just my wife and I it was around $250, and that could have gone up much more depending on the wine.
My wife's employer will be having their annual management meeting again this year in Vegas for the first time in 3 years. They'll probably send close to 10k people for the week. I've been reading that corporate bookings of meeting and conventions are bouncing back this year.
Today I was browsing in a higher end jewelry store, overheard the salesman saying this has been the season for watches - 50+ Rolex sales in the past month, many other high end brands also selling well - display cases had big gaps in the stock.
That's what I've been hearing to. My BIL manages an upscale jewelry store and that's similar to what he's been telling me.
No, I wasn't referring to that lady...that I can understand. The specific case I was referring to was an 85 year old lady with alzheimers who lost everything she had to Madoff...and there are many more like her.
I wonder where all the gloom and doom is in Nevada with 14.3% unemployment? Were all the Casinos busy?
I am surprised how busy it is. There are some visual casualties from the recession/depression however. Some businesses closed down. But there is little doubt that America is bouncing back.
More reason to expect the stock market to perform well in 2011. Charlie has predicted 12,775 on July 4th, and I have predicted 12,850.
You guessed it! I sold a few hundred shares last week at about $23 a share. I had to do something to get that stock out of its doldrums . I still have about 800 left.
I have never been so optimistic about the stock market in general. TM may beat my projection for July 4th. But I will gladly lose that bet.
I hope you and your families have a terrific Christmas... safe, with friends and loved ones, full of joy, health, giving praise, and filled with appreciation for what really matters most.
You and your family have a wonderful Christmas as well. I know I have so much to be thankful for this year. And the Stock market is only a small part of the Blessings.
I do hope you are safe up the coast. We have some big messes here where people built in a flood plain.
I too want to wish all a Merry Christmas, and I sure hope all the predictions come true----As for myself I just don`t have a feel for this year end market stuff Tony
I do hope you are safe up the coast. We have some big messes here where people built in a flood plain.
I left Malibu last week, right before the storms. Went to Las Vegas first, then on to spending Christmas in "the South". I called my house-sitter, and all is ok in Malibu.
Laguna Beach area got hit pretty bad, and a few other areas as well. You ok?
We are fine up on our little hill. Fortunately it is mostly granite and does not wash away easily. We have diverted all our run-off to the street and it ends up in the drain at the bottom of the hill. We did get about 6.5" of rain up here. Hope it does not get sunny and warm. My fruit trees will be fooled and start to blossom too early. That happened to some of them last year. Then a bit of a cold snap and they dropped off. No apricots or cherries last year.
I return TM's good wishes to everyone here as well.
In my family, we have been greatly blessed with a new granddaughter, born yesterday in a hospital in Ann Arbor, MI. My wife and I got here last Saturday and are loving every minute spent with our daughter, son-in-law, and now two granddaughters. It was incredibly cute and touching when the oldest (will be 3 on the 30th) was kissing and hugging the tiny one yesterday.
As far as the market is concerned, I have seen nothing that makes me change my thinking that 2011 will be a great year. Btw, I opened up a new but small E-trade account Dec. 1 and the entire investment is now taken up with 4 stocks. These include AAPL, AMZN, FDX, and last but not least, F. Half of the investment is AAPL just to show you how much faith I have in this stock. My average cost in AAPL in this account is $319. I expect to hold it until it reaches at least $375. I feel confident that level will be reached in 2011.
First things first... congratulations to your daughter and son-in-law on the "almost" Christmas baby. You must all be thrilled.
Also, good luck with the e-trade account. Be careful. Your 4 stocks are perfect. I also own AMZN, AAPL, and F... but instead of FDX I have UPS, which has gone from $55/share to $73/share this past year.
BTW, since you are our resident meteorologist, please warn me the next time Southern California is in the path of a half dozen monster storms all stacked in a row. Yikes!
Best to you and your family, Charlie... and congrats again.
TM, Best wishes for a prosperous and Healthy 2011 and far beyond for you and your family from central NJ. You are a true appreciator and sharer of your vast experiences for the good!
Hope it does not get sunny and warm. My fruit trees will be fooled and start to blossom too early. That happened to some of them last year. Then a bit of a cold snap and they dropped off. No apricots or cherries last year.
Do you have quite a few fruit trees? Temps don't usually get too cold along the SoCal coast... are you several miles inland?
I am 32 air miles from Point Loma, which I can see on a clear day. We are up at the 2000 foot level due East of downtown. We are up on a hill so we don't usually get much frost. Our neighbors just down the hill do get frost. The cold spell at Thanksgiving dropped us to 34 degrees. In the valleys they went as low as 26 degrees. Most of the winter our overnight lows are around 45 degrees. We only have about 30 trees including several citrus and one avocado. It is not unusual to have a lot of 80 degree days in the winter, when it only gets to 65 along the coast.
Our good friend Len will be snowbound the next 24-36 hours with a rather major blizzard that will affect the big Northeast Cities. Len will likely get about 12-15 inches with huge drifts. New York City itself will end up with about a foot while Boston (especially western suburbs) gets about 15-16 inches. Vicious winds in excess of 50 mph at ti mes will result in near zero visibility. It is a good thing this very intense low pressure moves along at a good clip. Otherwise, they would have gotten a repeat of the MAJOR blizzard of February, 1978 when up to 4 feet (on the level) was reported in eastern MA.
Just to keep you informed, a place in Litchfield sold for the high three million range....I guess that is the highest paid on that beautiful island...Tony
May keep our growth and job creation where it is for a long time. The US is no longer business friendly. And I have a hard time figuring out the BCS as well.
Of course there are some issues at play there that make it less than an apples to apples game.
First, those nations all have much higher personal taxes than are seen in the US.
Second, none of them have the insane military and foreign policy expenses as the US.
They also have their own problems with "job creation" and many have had fairly stagnant economies, even though they don't for the most part have the glaring growing socio-economic gap as seen in this bastion of capitalism (as some would call almost all of them "socialist").
Simply cutting business taxes solves nothing, but an editorial cartoonist might not see it that way.
Microsoft co-founder relaunches tech patent suit REUTERS — 7:08 AM ET 12/29/10
SEATTLE (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp co-founder Paul Allen relaunched a wide-ranging patent lawsuit against Apple Inc, Google Inc, Facebook and others with specific allegations that the companies are illegally using technology owned by his firm.
Interval Licensing LLC, a small research company set up by Allen in 1992, originally filed a broad patent suit in federal court in Seattle in August, but Judge Marsha Pechman dismissed it on the grounds that it did not specify any actual products or devices. The revised suit was filed by Interval on Tuesday.
Allen, who co-founded Microsoft with Bill Gates in 1975, claims Interval was central to research and development of technology in the Internet arena in the 1990s, amassing more than 300 patents and providing research assistance to Google.
In the suit, Allen's firm claims four of its patents -- chiefly related to the way Web data is sorted and presented -- have been infringed by a number of successful companies.
The first patent concerns the generation of data related to information being browsed. Interval claims Google uses this technology to match advertisements from third parties to content being displayed, while AOL's sites use it to suggest items related to news stories.
Interval claims Apple's iTunes service uses the technology to suggest music based on a user's searches, and that eBay Inc, Facebook, Netflix, Yahoo Inc and Office Depot's sites have also infringed the patent in the way they direct users to related content.
The second and third patents concern relaying information on a computer screen in a peripheral, unobtrusive manner, such as in an instant messaging box or overlay.
Interval claims its patent has been infringed by features in AOL's Instant Messenger, Apple's Dashboard, Google Talk and Gmail Notifier, Google's Android phone system and Yahoo Widgets.
The fourth patent concerns alerting web browsers to new items of interest based on activity of other users. Interval claims AOL uses this technology on its shopping sites, while Apple's iTunes uses it to recommend music.
I'm not sure what to make of this news. I doubt it will have much of a market impact. They will most likely have some sort of a settlement out of court years into the future. It is certainly not having any discernible impact on AAPL today.
I would think for a multi billionaire like Allen it is just part of the game. Probably did not like the Google boys passing him on the richest people list this year. Steve Jobs has a long ways to go to catch the top tier billionaires.
Comments
I am feeling a little better about Obama recently, due to his willingness to compromise on taxes. Maybe he has learned a lesson. His politics have improved a bit, but his ideology is still wrong.
Economy should improve in 2011... faster than predicted by most. Fed is still a wildcard. International issues could derail everything... let's hope not.
TM
Not at all. Just been sideways for a while. I expect it to hit 375 - 400 easily by the end of 2011.
TM
The reason the market is not doing much even though the tax bill is passed is because this was a foregone conclusion to the market for weeks that it was going to be passed. It was already factored in. As far as AAPL is concerned, I agree with TM. The run up on this stock is FAR from over.
This is a prediction from Porter Stansberry. It's fairly long, but I wonder if he's really on to something or just trying to sell more newsletters or both.
$1000 extra child tax credit.
Low death tax for those with estates over $5000000.
Gives away 2% for those working of social security money--to be made up by the general fund. We already have a general fund that borrowed the money from the broke social security fund to give pork and benefits to those same people to whom the social security money will be paid out now and in the future. More money given away is not good for the deficits.
Without reviewing, it seems there are a couple of other give-aways that Obama got in there. The repubs should have settled for no tax hikes for the middle class up to $1000000. I don't see a good future in this tax bill.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
When someone refers to "the new Euro currency", I have to wonder about how up to date they might be.
If the S really HTF, no investments are going to save you.
That's pretty much how I see it. When these guys start talking about how everything is going to crash, but "here is a way to come out a head", I believe they are just preying on one's fear.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Granted, G and S have had nice run ups lately, but I can't believe these are permanent.
I wouldn't touch gold and silver with a 10 foot pole. If gold actually goes to $6000 per ounce that would imply the world has imploded and EVERYONE would be in deep gaga.
I do think PMs have some more to gain before they crash, but they will, all bubbles pop.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
They are suing 80 year old widows, who were also wiped out, and who they know knew nothing about the fraud, for money they had received over the years as dividends, etc. if those payments exceeded the money invested. That could easily happen over 35 years. They appear to be suing the victims.
Additionally, as I understand it, no payments are actually being made to people who lost money thru "feeder funds" that had invested with Madoff. The money goes to the fund managers and they decide who gets any of it.
How would you like to lose 100% of your portfolio thru fraud and then be told you also have to pay back any dividends or withdrawals you had made over the years ?
Also the amount that was lost seems to keep changing from day to day, and it appears the money they are trying to recover actually exceeds the amount lost !!
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
It's an outrage. If some big bankers had been victimized, they'd get a bailout.
BTW, we're hanging in Las Vegas this weekend... we had an $800 steak dinner last night. It was awesome... and the place was packed! Another sign the eonomy is definitely on the mend compared to 18 months ago.
TM
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
I hope you were entertaining about 20 people. A bill that big and I would have a heart attack. You weren't the guy that hit the Bellagio, hehe?
I wonder where all the gloom and doom is in Nevada with 14.3% unemployment? Were all the Casinos busy?
That widow isn't destitute... she and her late husband were planning on leaving that money to charity..She still has many millions to live on. By recovering that money, people that actually lost money with Madoff, may recover 20%...
If you put in $100K with Madoff over the years, and removed $50K, then had your principal balance wiped out... and, the final calculation is that investors will receive 20% of their original investment back, then yes, you'll have to come up with $30K dollars... Otherwise, you are getting someone else's stolen funds to mitigate your own loss.
While I certainly feel sorry for anyone who had their money stolen, the fact that they outlived their husbands hardly makes them a handicapped class.. There weren't any poor people investing with Madoff.. Just wealthy people who didn't remember the adage about, "If it sounds to good to be true, then...."
If their life savings were entirely invested with one crook from NY, then that was just poor money management. The law requires that the trustee do his job.
regards,
kyfdx
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Today I was browsing in a higher end jewelry store, overheard the salesman saying this has been the season for watches - 50+ Rolex sales in the past month, many other high end brands also selling well - display cases had big gaps in the stock.
My wife and I stayed at the Wynn a few years ago. We had a delicious steak dinner at SW Steakhouse inside the Wynn while over looking the golf course. For just my wife and I it was around $250, and that could have gone up much more depending on the wine.
My wife's employer will be having their annual management meeting again this year in Vegas for the first time in 3 years. They'll probably send close to 10k people for the week. I've been reading that corporate bookings of meeting and conventions are bouncing back this year.
That's what I've been hearing to. My BIL manages an upscale jewelry store and that's similar to what he's been telling me.
The article was on Yahoo news.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
I am surprised how busy it is. There are some visual casualties from the recession/depression however. Some businesses closed down. But there is little doubt that America is bouncing back.
More reason to expect the stock market to perform well in 2011. Charlie has predicted 12,775 on July 4th, and I have predicted 12,850.
Have any others weighed in yet?
TM
I have never been so optimistic about the stock market in general. TM may beat my projection for July 4th. But I will gladly lose that bet.
I hope you and your families have a terrific Christmas... safe, with friends and loved ones, full of joy, health, giving praise, and filled with appreciation for what really matters most.
... with a heartfelt thanks to all of you...
TM
I do hope you are safe up the coast. We have some big messes here where people built in a flood plain.
I left Malibu last week, right before the storms. Went to Las Vegas first, then on to spending Christmas in "the South". I called my house-sitter, and all is ok in Malibu.
Laguna Beach area got hit pretty bad, and a few other areas as well. You ok?
TM
In my family, we have been greatly blessed with a new granddaughter, born yesterday in a hospital in Ann Arbor, MI. My wife and I got here last Saturday and are loving every minute spent with our daughter, son-in-law, and now two granddaughters. It was incredibly cute and touching when the oldest (will be 3 on the 30th) was kissing and hugging the tiny one yesterday.
As far as the market is concerned, I have seen nothing that makes me change my thinking that 2011 will be a great year. Btw, I opened up a new but small E-trade account Dec. 1 and the entire investment is now taken up with 4 stocks. These include AAPL, AMZN, FDX, and last but not least, F. Half of the investment is AAPL just to show you how much faith I have in this stock. My average cost in AAPL in this account is $319. I expect to hold it until it reaches at least $375. I feel confident that level will be reached in 2011.
Also, good luck with the e-trade account. Be careful. Your 4 stocks are perfect. I also own AMZN, AAPL, and F... but instead of FDX I have UPS, which has gone from $55/share to $73/share this past year.
BTW, since you are our resident meteorologist, please warn me the next time Southern California is in the path of a half dozen monster storms all stacked in a row. Yikes!
Best to you and your family, Charlie... and congrats again.
TM
I truly appreciate your guidance!
Regards,
OW
Here's to a Fine 2011 to all 9+ billion of us in the New Year!
Regards,
OW
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to everyone here.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Do you have quite a few fruit trees? Temps don't usually get too cold along the SoCal coast... are you several miles inland?
TM
And congratulations to Cyclone4 and his family for that very special Christmas Present.
Regards,
Jose
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Happy New Year, while I'm at it, since I don't post here all that often.
Good luck to Len. Might be a good time to get necessary supplies.
TM
First, those nations all have much higher personal taxes than are seen in the US.
Second, none of them have the insane military and foreign policy expenses as the US.
They also have their own problems with "job creation" and many have had fairly stagnant economies, even though they don't for the most part have the glaring growing socio-economic gap as seen in this bastion of capitalism (as some would call almost all of them "socialist").
Simply cutting business taxes solves nothing, but an editorial cartoonist might not see it that way.
REUTERS — 7:08 AM ET 12/29/10
SEATTLE (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp co-founder Paul Allen relaunched a wide-ranging patent lawsuit against Apple Inc, Google Inc, Facebook and others with specific allegations that the companies are illegally using technology owned by his firm.
Interval Licensing LLC, a small research company set up by Allen in 1992, originally filed a broad patent suit in federal court in Seattle in August, but Judge Marsha Pechman dismissed it on the grounds that it did not specify any actual products or devices. The revised suit was filed by Interval on Tuesday.
Allen, who co-founded Microsoft with Bill Gates in 1975, claims Interval was central to research and development of technology in the Internet arena in the 1990s, amassing more than 300 patents and providing research assistance to Google.
In the suit, Allen's firm claims four of its patents -- chiefly related to the way Web data is sorted and presented -- have been infringed by a number of successful companies.
The first patent concerns the generation of data related to information being browsed. Interval claims Google uses this technology to match advertisements from third parties to content being displayed, while AOL's sites use it to suggest items related to news stories.
Interval claims Apple's iTunes service uses the technology to suggest music based on a user's searches, and that eBay Inc, Facebook, Netflix, Yahoo Inc and Office Depot's sites have also infringed the patent in the way they direct users to related content.
The second and third patents concern relaying information on a computer screen in a peripheral, unobtrusive manner, such as in an instant messaging box or overlay.
Interval claims its patent has been infringed by features in AOL's Instant Messenger, Apple's Dashboard, Google Talk and Gmail Notifier, Google's Android phone system and Yahoo Widgets.
The fourth patent concerns alerting web browsers to new items of interest based on activity of other users. Interval claims AOL uses this technology on its shopping sites, while Apple's iTunes uses it to recommend music.
Happy New Year to all the Edmund's posters.