The Stock Market and Investing

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  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Sounds like a serious (and smelly) digestive issue... I'd recommend seeing a doctor.

    Seeing a doctor? Are you kidding me? I should have been a poet :) .
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited February 2011
    LOL... The doctor isn't for YOU... you silly poet. But rather the "patient" that has the "symptoms" you so poetically described. :)

    TM
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    This does indeed appear to be a VERY good indication yet again that Ford (F) is a good stock to own for the long run.

    GS, I think you are going to be fine.

    Charlie, thanks for selling every single one of your Ford shares so the rest of us can enjoy the subsequent rebound. ;)

    TM
  • 2001gs4302001gs430 Member Posts: 767
    edited February 2011
    Ya, I hope we saw its bottom and it would claw its way back. I did add more on Friday. :)
    I think all those that wanted to get out did so already.
    Thanks Charlie.
    Also, bought more Apple on Friday. :D
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Tony,

    If you are out there and doing alright, just take a moment to say hello. I was thinking about you, and realize that you haven't posted anything here or on any of the other threads since last December 27th.

    I hope you're doing OK, my friend. Always love your posts.

    :)

    TM
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    It`s kind of you to ask...I`m fine, and have `laid back` as I don`t want to have an opinion that is not really positive and helpful Frankly the market has been so strong , sort of like when Charlie got back in and it went up non stop for a year. ...No need to `jinks` that......You guys have been doing fine, and it is cold and miserable here in Charleston ... a really cold winter...

    Miraculously I have held the course with the junk bond senerio ...and I think I`l stay that way a while longer---but not forever---

    Regards to everyone Tony
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited February 2011
    Tony... I am so glad to hear from you. Thanks for taking the time to reply. It's great to know that all is well.

    Please don't be a stranger, and let's hear what's on your mind from time to time. Every post doesn't have to be positive, especially from you. You are one of the most positive individuals on the planet, so give yourself a little slack.

    Yes, it seems that the weather has been absolutely brutal for so much of the nation. I almost feel guilty that in my neck of the woods we are having some the best weather on record... mid sixties to mid seventies almost every day, & occassionally even eighty degrees. Just perfect. But it won't be long before Spring, and I wonder what that will be like for the nation this year. It would be interesting if Charlie has prediction models that could giving us a glimpse into what kind of weather might be expected and what is most likely to happen this Spring.

    You know, the market does seem to have a lot of continued momentum. Nonetheless, there are risks, as there are in life in general. If nothing is ever ventured, then life wouldn't be really living in the true sense.

    Anyway, I hope all the farm equipment and family cars are running well, and my regards to you and your loved ones. Once again, nice to hear from you, and I look forward to hearing from you again soon.

    Best regards,

    TM
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    Mr Tag
    I do have one interesting thing to pass along to you and Jflic(sp)...Apparently in the tax code there is a thing called Production Deduction...Look it up...I think possibly it could apply to you both....It sneaked up on me, but this year it jumped from a small percentage of income to about nine percent.....We had to do a lot of re jiggering to make sure a lot of the income qualified....That is the best I can do on that front

    For me personally--and you may remember my skepticism of the fundamentals of our market trading system---I do feel that I am taking a lot of risk , and have protected myself to the best of my ability. Although the junk bond may sound bland..they are not.....In some cases they have appreciated twenty- thirty percent in the last year, and for me that turns out to be a lot of dollars as I concentrate a lot of my net worth.....It`s hard to build a position and hard to get out...but `out` one day will come...Just not right now, as I think rates ( not short term) will stay moderated for a while.....As you know there is a lot of money made at the very end of a run...

    Man Tag you and the rest of us have come so far in the last couple of years...Let`s never forget ....

    As for the farm stuff I`m about to get a small excavator kx 121... around ten thousand dollars less than a Cat....Not quite the machine a Cat is but never the less a good one, and I still have the Audi but my wife got a Mercedes E stationwagon....Looks a little out of place at the farm, but fine in town.....So I am doing my part to stimulate the economy, and frankly everywhere I go thing are doing much better than is reported in the numbers....Our market may have a lot further to go.....but, as you, I am cautious...Tony
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited February 2011
    Man, Tag you and the rest of us have come so far in the last couple of years ... Let`s never forget ....

    Amen. I don't ever want to go through that kind of meltdown again. It was terrifying. I survived it, as did most of us, but I will never look at life the same way I used to. In some ways, I am stronger, but also in the sense that scar tissue is stronger... if you know what I mean. That said, I am not completely bitter about it. In many ways, I like my life now better than before.

    BTW, thanks for that tax information... I'll look into that. And good luck with the excavator kx 121.

    TM
  • slorenzenslorenzen Member Posts: 694
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/41491498

    stock exchange consolidation?
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    Anyone paying attention to the $15 difference between Brent crude and WTI. It's getting wider every day.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I noticed that also. The WTI is $10 less than OPEC basket price. WTI is sweeter crude than most, from my understanding.
  • circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    Supplies are building. It's the Egypt thing now. It's always something.

    Anyone notice how IBM has gained 14% in 2 months? Not a barn burner but not a bad investment result, either.

    Regards,
    OW
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    I noticed.
    Wish I had bought it.

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Anyone notice how IBM has gained 14% in 2 months? Not a barn burner but not a bad investment result, either.

    I am an idiot for not pulling the trigger on IBM when you first mentioned it. Nice ride! In my case, I am living and dying with AAPL and some other secondary stocks. Today I was living with AAPL, but then I suddenly "died" within a matter of few minutes :cry: . Evidently, crowds going shopping at Verizon stores to buy the iPhone were not large this morning :( .
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    IBM is a rock now.
  • 2001gs4302001gs430 Member Posts: 767
    edited February 2011
    Charlie, I thought you've said "buy AAPL, and then come back in 6 mths to see the gain". I think TM is clouding your investment style... :surprise:
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    edited February 2011
    Charlie, I thought you've said "buy AAPL, and then come back in 6 mths to see the gain". I think TM is clouding your investment style...

    You have a great memory! That's exactly what I said back "when", but I don't remember exactly when. I suppose it was a couple months ago at least. Well, 4 months from now aapl should be trading at about $410. It will probably go to $500 as ljflx stated a few weeks ago. I remember what others say better than what I say myself :D . I still "live & die" with aapl during the wild up ("live") and down ("die"). However, as long as I do more living as opposed to dieing then I will be doing great :) . Btw, I am full of life so far today. As far as TM is concerned, I will never catch up to him and his wild trading methods :D .
  • 2001gs4302001gs430 Member Posts: 767
    At the rate it's going now, I have no doubt that it would reach 400 or higher. However, what info do you have to think it would hit that mark by June this year? What are the things that can stall the run up?
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited February 2011
    As far as TM is concerned, I will never catch up to him and his wild trading methods

    :blush: LOL... Good to have at least one "wild and crazy guy" on the forum... don't cha think?

    BTW, I have about 35 different stocks and several funds in my latest equities portfolio. I have them in varying investment levels. AAPL is one of my larger ones, of course. And... as I reported recently ARMH was one of those that I bought a significant amount of, and it has gone to the moon.

    Here is a 10-day chart for ARMH...

    image

    I want to tell you about another stock I also bought recently in a significant amount... JDSU.... which I used to own a couple of years ago, but somehow lost interest in it. Well, I am soooo glad I also added it to my portfolio.

    Check out this 10-day chart for JDSU...

    image

    It was up 11.52% just today alone! As crazy as I may seem (or am), I still believe there is lots of upside to this stock and to ARMH... so I'm not taking profits yet. I'm holding out for even more.

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    However, what info do you have to think it would hit that mark by June this year? What are the things that can stall the run up?

    Have you heard of ESP? :) ? I'm thinking that the iPhone will continue to sell like hot cakes in spite of the strong competition from Android. Basically, the Mobil market is consolidating into the iPhone and the Android. All the rest are screwed in my opinion. So, aapl will continue to prosper from the iPhone. But that's just one facet. They have so many great products the public loves that Apple will not know what to do with all the $zillions in revenue they will be raking in.

    What could go wrong? Well, the Android will become the rage and the iPhone will die. What's the chance that will happen? one tenth of 1%.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited February 2011
    Interesting.

    I believe that there is an entire next generation of hardware & software ahead that shouldn't and can't be measured by today's iPhone and Android smartphones.

    I would not rule out HP, or Sony just yet... but more and most importantly... never rule out Microsoft. They are somewhat out of this current generation of handheld success, and you can bet that they are fast at work integrating all their achievements together.

    Microsoft still can take credit for office productivity software, desktop operating systems, auto software, the X-box and more. IMO, the X-box integration into future hardware/software/cloud technology that is seemless between desktop, console, and mobile devices is still a massive advantage that Microsoft COULD flex one day. Innovation is not dead.

    Another big player that will ultimately be a force to reckon with could be none other than [drumroll] Intel. Intel has the potential to transition itself to a whole new level. Perhaps we don't see Microsoft or Intel as future threats to Apple, but the future is up for grabs, and these huge companies will be big players.

    It is conceivable that in this rapid innovative environment, Apple could miss the boat one day, and all of a sudden Google or Microsoft or Facebook or Samsung or Intel or Xerox or a company from left field could introduce the next best thing.

    I think Apple is powerful and amazing... but always vulnerable to competition and innovation.

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    TM, you are probably right and my thinking is probably short sighted. However, Apple is not going to sit still and let others pass them by.
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    edited February 2011
    Great post Tag. Agree completely that Microsoft is the sleeping giant in all this. I think we'll find that the technology companies come back in waves and the next wave is probably Microsoft and Intel again. What Apple has that is great though is the consumer retail component via their stores and how they turn up that manufacturing capability to meet demand has been amazing. I maintain that any company that is connected from top to bottom in the sale and manufacturing process and doesn't need the missing retailer link is very hard to defeat.
  • 2001gs4302001gs430 Member Posts: 767
    I like your assessment on AAPL. I think it has the star power to draw in new investors so it's possible that the momentum would push the price to 400 in the short term.
    I think it will be some time before an iPhone killer hit the markets, and hopefully Apple would be ready to counter with something else.
    Also, who knows what else Apple can reinvent and make a zillion bucks from?
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited February 2011
    GS...

    IMO, there should be little doubt that Apple has a long successful road ahead.. regardless of whether the "next best thing" comes from them or someone else.

    I think it's fair to say that they have a solid loyal customer base, enough momentum, product innovation, as well as the business model that Len mentioned to achieve a stock share price of $400 - $500.

    That said, I am reminded of the way Motorola literally OWNED the handheld market (in a similar way as Apple does currently with the iPhone) with their Motorola Razr. Then... Boom! Hello iPhone.

    I loved my Razr. And never thought it would be toppled by the unimaginable.

    Likewise, today we have the iPhone... until the unimaginable comes along.

    And eventually it will.

    But it in the meantime I love owning lots of AAPL stock. Even though I don't own an iPhone anymore, and now prefer the much faster & more powerful HTC EVO 4G. ;)

    TM
  • houdini1houdini1 Member Posts: 8,351
    I think it is about time for AAPL to have about a 4:1 stock split.

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    LOL... Hell yeah.

    BTW, things warming up in Missouri yet?

    TM
  • houdini1houdini1 Member Posts: 8,351
    edited February 2011
    Near Kansas City but on the Kansas side. Finally, in the 50's today. Supposed to be warm all week. Still mounds of snow everywhere though. Bought QLIK last week. Small position but I might buy more.

    I took a little spare cash and opened a Scottrade account to play with. $7. bucks a trade for online trades and they have a good trading platform. Got any hot tips?

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    I took a little spare cash and opened a Scottrade account to play with. $7. bucks a trade for online trades and they have a good trading platform. Got any hot tips?

    AAPL.... haha
    ...but seriously... invest in AAPL.

    Well, I don't want to jinx them, but ARMH and JDSU have been on a rocket ship to another galaxy, and while I am expecting them to go even higher, it is hard to recommend stocks that have seen such a huge and rapid upside. That said, look into them and see if you believe as I do that they will go a lot higher by the end of this year.

    Regardless... GOOD LUCK!

    TM
  • 2001gs4302001gs430 Member Posts: 767
    I don't disagree with you. However, Apple is not a one trick pony. I hope they will continue to build on their strings of hits and not get nailed like Motorola.
  • 2001gs4302001gs430 Member Posts: 767
    Bought QLIK last week

    I've been tempted to get back in to QLIK as well, but AAPL and F have tied up my portfolio lately (I did double up on F at 16). On the business side, the software is now official ranked in the Leader Zone of Gartner Magic Quadrant, which is a big thing for selling to large Corporate customers.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited February 2011
    I've been tempted to get back in to QLIK as well, but AAPL and F have tied up my portfolio lately (I did double up on F at 16). On the business side, the software is now official ranked in the Leader Zone of Gartner Magic Quadrant, which is a big thing for selling to large Corporate customers.

    I have been tempted to get back into QLIK as well, but I'm not going to do it, at least for a while. I want to see some solid numbers first... unless I"m missing something.

    I have about 35 different stocks and funds overall, one of which is Citigroup (again). I might make one last attempt at making a homerun on Citi by buying a large stake and holding it for three to four years no matter what happens... I still think it's extremely likely that Citi is going to provide at least a 30% - 60% return, and even quite possibly a 100%-150% return in that time frame.

    TM
  • houdini1houdini1 Member Posts: 8,351
    I don't think the numbers will look all that great when they come out in March but I also don't think they will sink the stock.

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Yeah. I'm not a buyer for QLIK at this time.

    BTW, as a follow-up, here's a few more that may interest you.... QCOM, HUWHY, and AMT. (For the record, I own shares of all of them).

    :)

    TM
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    edited February 2011
    QCOM was my biggest error in judgment. I had enough to buy 10,000 shares back in the early 1990s. I opted for a company we were buying telco equipment from. They went bankrupt and QCOM soared to the sky. Took me a decade to get enough confidence to buy any stock. I kept the rest in Mutual Funds.
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    edited February 2011
    I've been tempted to get back in to QLIK as well

    Well, I have not gotten back into QLIK either. Just like you and TM, I have been investing more and more into AAPL and a few other stocks. Back on Friday, a friend with good knowledge of the stock recommended to me that I look into BWA (Borgwarner, Inc), a global supplier of engineered automotive systems and components. The Company had a fabulous 4Q earnings report and it has been acting fantastic the past year or more. With the auto industry on the rise, this stock should continue to soar. I bought a few hundred shares at about $77 a share back on Friday. My friend thinks that once it gets to above $80 (just touched $80 as I write this post) and stays there for a while, they will have a 2 for 1 split this year. He then thinks the stock will trade to $120 by early next year. I am thinking of dumping FDX (already sold it at the highs a couple weeks ago on my new E-Trade Account and bought more AAPL back then) on one of my other accounts (where I pay full brokerage fees) and buy more BWA. I really like this stock as you can tell.

    TM, I am sick to my stomach that I got rid of ARMH several months ago. I still own AMT, however. Most of my stocks are doing very well, lead of course by the one and only AAPL. Btw, AAPL is close to the $360 mark now. GS, look out for at least $400 by June, if not sooner.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    It seems that every time things start loooking good, there's some newfangled political interference.

    It makes me sick.

    We can all work hard, be productive citizens, and pay our taxes... and we can count on the world's leaders and power-mongers will screw it all up... over & over again.

    They steal a portion of our prosperity & destroy our investment potential.

    TM
  • houdini1houdini1 Member Posts: 8,351
    Amen brother !!

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited February 2011
    Charlie,

    I think you'll appreciate this. I just spent some time tweaking my portfolio with my broker. (Adding some shares of various stocks here and there). So far, we are really pleased with the returns of this latest combination of stocks. But... it turns out that there was a little glitch, based upon some sort of misunderstanding that he and I must have had in the past.

    It turns out that I have owned more AAPL stock than I was aware of. I know this sounds bizarre, but it's true. All the other stocks in the portfolio are exactly according to plan, but somehow I have been the owner of more AAPL shares than I knew about.

    So... fortunately it's turned out to be a nice surprise, and I just had to tell you this... since you also share the love for AAPL around here!

    :)

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Holy cowabanga TM! Man, pleasant surprises such as this never happen to me. I wish I owned a few thousand shares of AAPL, but I should not complain. It has been very good to me. What do you think? 500 or bust by some time next year?

    I happened to be watching CNBC this morning and they had this guy on (complicated foreign type name, but I think he is an American) and he was projecting the S & P to reach 2800+ by about mid September, 2013. You know what? I would not at all doubt it will reach this lofty level by then. I truly believe that this is going to continue to be an AWESOME bull market for the next few years. I am obviously happy I started buying stocks back in March of 2009. Btw, I don't hear much "double dip" talk by the so called "experts" any more. This type of talk dominated the airwaves much of 2010. Do they come out and admit they were terribly wrong? Hell no!
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    edited February 2011
    and he was projecting the S & P to reach 2800+ by about mid September, 2013

    OH no Charlie. The moment I read things like that it tells me to get out. I can't bring myself to give up on the market (I'm 80/20 righ now) with such an accomodating money policy, great efficiencies in corporate america, a possible lower corporate tax rate and a great fed growth expectation feeding greater and greater profits to lean corporations. I can't leave a market that good. But when I read things pointing to extremes either way it's time to sell (or buy if the extreme being pointed to is the wrong way)

    BTW - still have 8-12" of snow on my front lawn, even after a pair of days this week with 65 degree temps. This snow is a glacier with a ton of water content and weighs like granite. I am 25-30 air miles south of NYC.

    http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=2s7gawh&s=7

    http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=213ondc&s=7
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Looks like mighty wet snow. Good thing your roof is cleared of snow and ice. Do you have heat under the roofing?
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    edited February 2011
    It's about 7 or 8 layers of snow from all different storms plus some very cold rain that got absorbed into the snow without melting any of it and then it all froze into a glacier so it can't melt fast even under warm dry temps. Warm humid temps might be a different story. Whenever it refereezes it's like granite and you can't even dent it jumping up and down on it. This snow is from the boxing day blizzard, (over 30" here), a follow up 10" storm, the 18" January blizzard and several other lesser storms. There has been very deep snow on the ground here now since December 26th with 20-40 foot piles in larger parking lots.
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    You definitely have a valid point. A lot of times, when people talk extremes one way or the other, it may be time to say goodbye to the market. However, in this case, they also interview people who think that the market will see another crash. So, I think we will be fine.

    I am really impressed by the fact that you still had close to a foot of "glacier" on your front yard after some very warm weather recently. Incredible! Here in Des Moines the snow cover vanished the past 5 days or so. Without the snow cover, we warmed to a record tying 68 degrees yesterday. There were numerous record highs in the Midwest yesterday. In fact, some places' like Des Moines also had record high minimums (41 in Des Moines). We expect more record or near record warm temperatures from here south on Sunday before it turns colder more consistently.
  • circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    My house faces south so front yard is in California and snow is history but rear yard is in the North Pole so still piles of snow.

    Sort of like the spread between Brent and WTI!

    Regards,
    OW
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    edited February 2011
    OK guys. Some of us that own a lot of AAPL have been nervous the past couple days. After reaching an all time high above $363 on Wednesday, the stock started to tumble yesterday and the tumbling is continuing this morning so far ($353 as of this post). I'm sure that most of this sell-off has to do with the health of Steve jobs. Evidently, a story has just confirmed that he is getting cancer treatments at Stanford. This should not have been a surprise, but the market all the uncertainty is causing a sizable sell-off. I suppose some of the sell-off may be do to AAPL being scrutinized by U.S. regulators for possible antitrust regulations on Apple's subscription services plan. But, I really think it has do with Jobs' health issues.

    What does anyone else think about the plan of attack going forward with AAPL? I am almost certain, it will still reach 400+ this year, but obviously if Jobs' health takes a turn for the worse, there will be a bigger sell-off before it recovers.
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    You have done well, and maybe you just need to be mindful that if you are concerned at this juncture, then maybe you have a bit too much, and if the stock has a pullback, then you would really be bothered.....Just a thought.....

    I have never made a meaningful amount of money if I did not have a concentrated position ...Doesn`t mean I didn`t ` sweat` every minute of it.... Tony
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    edited February 2011
    Thank you Tony for your thoughtful remarks. You are absolutely correct. I had a big position on AAPL and I was getting nervous, concerned that I would lose the big profits I had into it . Well, about a half hour ago, I decided to cut my position in half and I feel relieved. I will see how it acts early next week and act accordingly. Obviously, there is a lot of nervousness with Apple shareholders the past few days due to Jobs' health issues and perhaps the anti trust possibility.

    It will be interesting to see what TM and Len did, if anything, with AAPL today, Knowing TM, he probably doubled up at around $350. :D
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited February 2011
    It will be interesting to see what TM and Len did, if anything, with AAPL today, Knowing TM, he probably doubled up at around $350.

    Charlie...

    Not this time.

    After intensive research yesterday and late last night, I decided to sell ALL my AAPL stock today. My decision to sell is due (in small part) to the statistical decline in app sales growth (due to market saturation and fast-growing competition). It sends me a signal that the AAPL party is about to slow down. But, more significantly, after a ton of personal research into new upcoming tech products, I can assure you that there is some seriously terrific competition coming very soon that will indeed throw some wrenches into AAPL's gears.

    I realize that AAPL will launch some updated products later this year, but regardless, I am not an owner of AAPL shares, given the combination of current factors.

    I have no complaints, and the stock has really made me some serious green. Thanks for all your positive energy surrounding AAPL. I think it helped me to buy more of it when I otherwise might not have done so.

    There is always the possibility that AAPL will rebound next week, but it will take a little while for me to be convinced that the stock has genuinely regained its strong legs and powerful prospects for massive growth. As I said, I think the party is slowing down for a while.

    I am surprised that I reached this decision, but my homework truly convinced me, and I believe it is the right thing to do. Of course there is always the chance that I could be totally wrong on all of this, and if so I can always buy AAPL again, if I find the right reasons, and I look forward to that day. But, again, my research convinced me to sell.

    TM
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