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Comments
Seeing a doctor? Are you kidding me? I should have been a poet
TM
GS, I think you are going to be fine.
Charlie, thanks for selling every single one of your Ford shares so the rest of us can enjoy the subsequent rebound.
TM
I think all those that wanted to get out did so already.
Thanks Charlie.
Also, bought more Apple on Friday.
If you are out there and doing alright, just take a moment to say hello. I was thinking about you, and realize that you haven't posted anything here or on any of the other threads since last December 27th.
I hope you're doing OK, my friend. Always love your posts.
TM
Miraculously I have held the course with the junk bond senerio ...and I think I`l stay that way a while longer---but not forever---
Regards to everyone Tony
Please don't be a stranger, and let's hear what's on your mind from time to time. Every post doesn't have to be positive, especially from you. You are one of the most positive individuals on the planet, so give yourself a little slack.
Yes, it seems that the weather has been absolutely brutal for so much of the nation. I almost feel guilty that in my neck of the woods we are having some the best weather on record... mid sixties to mid seventies almost every day, & occassionally even eighty degrees. Just perfect. But it won't be long before Spring, and I wonder what that will be like for the nation this year. It would be interesting if Charlie has prediction models that could giving us a glimpse into what kind of weather might be expected and what is most likely to happen this Spring.
You know, the market does seem to have a lot of continued momentum. Nonetheless, there are risks, as there are in life in general. If nothing is ever ventured, then life wouldn't be really living in the true sense.
Anyway, I hope all the farm equipment and family cars are running well, and my regards to you and your loved ones. Once again, nice to hear from you, and I look forward to hearing from you again soon.
Best regards,
TM
I do have one interesting thing to pass along to you and Jflic(sp)...Apparently in the tax code there is a thing called Production Deduction...Look it up...I think possibly it could apply to you both....It sneaked up on me, but this year it jumped from a small percentage of income to about nine percent.....We had to do a lot of re jiggering to make sure a lot of the income qualified....That is the best I can do on that front
For me personally--and you may remember my skepticism of the fundamentals of our market trading system---I do feel that I am taking a lot of risk , and have protected myself to the best of my ability. Although the junk bond may sound bland..they are not.....In some cases they have appreciated twenty- thirty percent in the last year, and for me that turns out to be a lot of dollars as I concentrate a lot of my net worth.....It`s hard to build a position and hard to get out...but `out` one day will come...Just not right now, as I think rates ( not short term) will stay moderated for a while.....As you know there is a lot of money made at the very end of a run...
Man Tag you and the rest of us have come so far in the last couple of years...Let`s never forget ....
As for the farm stuff I`m about to get a small excavator kx 121... around ten thousand dollars less than a Cat....Not quite the machine a Cat is but never the less a good one, and I still have the Audi but my wife got a Mercedes E stationwagon....Looks a little out of place at the farm, but fine in town.....So I am doing my part to stimulate the economy, and frankly everywhere I go thing are doing much better than is reported in the numbers....Our market may have a lot further to go.....but, as you, I am cautious...Tony
Amen. I don't ever want to go through that kind of meltdown again. It was terrifying. I survived it, as did most of us, but I will never look at life the same way I used to. In some ways, I am stronger, but also in the sense that scar tissue is stronger... if you know what I mean. That said, I am not completely bitter about it. In many ways, I like my life now better than before.
BTW, thanks for that tax information... I'll look into that. And good luck with the excavator kx 121.
TM
stock exchange consolidation?
Anyone notice how IBM has gained 14% in 2 months? Not a barn burner but not a bad investment result, either.
Regards,
OW
Wish I had bought it.
TM
I am an idiot for not pulling the trigger on IBM when you first mentioned it. Nice ride! In my case, I am living and dying with AAPL and some other secondary stocks. Today I was living with AAPL, but then I suddenly "died" within a matter of few minutes
You have a great memory! That's exactly what I said back "when", but I don't remember exactly when. I suppose it was a couple months ago at least. Well, 4 months from now aapl should be trading at about $410. It will probably go to $500 as ljflx stated a few weeks ago. I remember what others say better than what I say myself
BTW, I have about 35 different stocks and several funds in my latest equities portfolio. I have them in varying investment levels. AAPL is one of my larger ones, of course. And... as I reported recently ARMH was one of those that I bought a significant amount of, and it has gone to the moon.
Here is a 10-day chart for ARMH...
I want to tell you about another stock I also bought recently in a significant amount... JDSU.... which I used to own a couple of years ago, but somehow lost interest in it. Well, I am soooo glad I also added it to my portfolio.
Check out this 10-day chart for JDSU...
It was up 11.52% just today alone! As crazy as I may seem (or am), I still believe there is lots of upside to this stock and to ARMH... so I'm not taking profits yet. I'm holding out for even more.
TM
Have you heard of ESP?
What could go wrong? Well, the Android will become the rage and the iPhone will die. What's the chance that will happen? one tenth of 1%.
I believe that there is an entire next generation of hardware & software ahead that shouldn't and can't be measured by today's iPhone and Android smartphones.
I would not rule out HP, or Sony just yet... but more and most importantly... never rule out Microsoft. They are somewhat out of this current generation of handheld success, and you can bet that they are fast at work integrating all their achievements together.
Microsoft still can take credit for office productivity software, desktop operating systems, auto software, the X-box and more. IMO, the X-box integration into future hardware/software/cloud technology that is seemless between desktop, console, and mobile devices is still a massive advantage that Microsoft COULD flex one day. Innovation is not dead.
Another big player that will ultimately be a force to reckon with could be none other than [drumroll] Intel. Intel has the potential to transition itself to a whole new level. Perhaps we don't see Microsoft or Intel as future threats to Apple, but the future is up for grabs, and these huge companies will be big players.
It is conceivable that in this rapid innovative environment, Apple could miss the boat one day, and all of a sudden Google or Microsoft or Facebook or Samsung or Intel or Xerox or a company from left field could introduce the next best thing.
I think Apple is powerful and amazing... but always vulnerable to competition and innovation.
TM
I think it will be some time before an iPhone killer hit the markets, and hopefully Apple would be ready to counter with something else.
Also, who knows what else Apple can reinvent and make a zillion bucks from?
IMO, there should be little doubt that Apple has a long successful road ahead.. regardless of whether the "next best thing" comes from them or someone else.
I think it's fair to say that they have a solid loyal customer base, enough momentum, product innovation, as well as the business model that Len mentioned to achieve a stock share price of $400 - $500.
That said, I am reminded of the way Motorola literally OWNED the handheld market (in a similar way as Apple does currently with the iPhone) with their Motorola Razr. Then... Boom! Hello iPhone.
I loved my Razr. And never thought it would be toppled by the unimaginable.
Likewise, today we have the iPhone... until the unimaginable comes along.
And eventually it will.
But it in the meantime I love owning lots of AAPL stock. Even though I don't own an iPhone anymore, and now prefer the much faster & more powerful HTC EVO 4G.
TM
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
BTW, things warming up in Missouri yet?
TM
I took a little spare cash and opened a Scottrade account to play with. $7. bucks a trade for online trades and they have a good trading platform. Got any hot tips?
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
AAPL.... haha
...but seriously... invest in AAPL.
Well, I don't want to jinx them, but ARMH and JDSU have been on a rocket ship to another galaxy, and while I am expecting them to go even higher, it is hard to recommend stocks that have seen such a huge and rapid upside. That said, look into them and see if you believe as I do that they will go a lot higher by the end of this year.
Regardless... GOOD LUCK!
TM
I've been tempted to get back in to QLIK as well, but AAPL and F have tied up my portfolio lately (I did double up on F at 16). On the business side, the software is now official ranked in the Leader Zone of Gartner Magic Quadrant, which is a big thing for selling to large Corporate customers.
I have been tempted to get back into QLIK as well, but I'm not going to do it, at least for a while. I want to see some solid numbers first... unless I"m missing something.
I have about 35 different stocks and funds overall, one of which is Citigroup (again). I might make one last attempt at making a homerun on Citi by buying a large stake and holding it for three to four years no matter what happens... I still think it's extremely likely that Citi is going to provide at least a 30% - 60% return, and even quite possibly a 100%-150% return in that time frame.
TM
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
BTW, as a follow-up, here's a few more that may interest you.... QCOM, HUWHY, and AMT. (For the record, I own shares of all of them).
TM
Well, I have not gotten back into QLIK either. Just like you and TM, I have been investing more and more into AAPL and a few other stocks. Back on Friday, a friend with good knowledge of the stock recommended to me that I look into BWA (Borgwarner, Inc), a global supplier of engineered automotive systems and components. The Company had a fabulous 4Q earnings report and it has been acting fantastic the past year or more. With the auto industry on the rise, this stock should continue to soar. I bought a few hundred shares at about $77 a share back on Friday. My friend thinks that once it gets to above $80 (just touched $80 as I write this post) and stays there for a while, they will have a 2 for 1 split this year. He then thinks the stock will trade to $120 by early next year. I am thinking of dumping FDX (already sold it at the highs a couple weeks ago on my new E-Trade Account and bought more AAPL back then) on one of my other accounts (where I pay full brokerage fees) and buy more BWA. I really like this stock as you can tell.
TM, I am sick to my stomach that I got rid of ARMH several months ago. I still own AMT, however. Most of my stocks are doing very well, lead of course by the one and only AAPL. Btw, AAPL is close to the $360 mark now. GS, look out for at least $400 by June, if not sooner.
It makes me sick.
We can all work hard, be productive citizens, and pay our taxes... and we can count on the world's leaders and power-mongers will screw it all up... over & over again.
They steal a portion of our prosperity & destroy our investment potential.
TM
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
I think you'll appreciate this. I just spent some time tweaking my portfolio with my broker. (Adding some shares of various stocks here and there). So far, we are really pleased with the returns of this latest combination of stocks. But... it turns out that there was a little glitch, based upon some sort of misunderstanding that he and I must have had in the past.
It turns out that I have owned more AAPL stock than I was aware of. I know this sounds bizarre, but it's true. All the other stocks in the portfolio are exactly according to plan, but somehow I have been the owner of more AAPL shares than I knew about.
So... fortunately it's turned out to be a nice surprise, and I just had to tell you this... since you also share the love for AAPL around here!
TM
I happened to be watching CNBC this morning and they had this guy on (complicated foreign type name, but I think he is an American) and he was projecting the S & P to reach 2800+ by about mid September, 2013. You know what? I would not at all doubt it will reach this lofty level by then. I truly believe that this is going to continue to be an AWESOME bull market for the next few years. I am obviously happy I started buying stocks back in March of 2009. Btw, I don't hear much "double dip" talk by the so called "experts" any more. This type of talk dominated the airwaves much of 2010. Do they come out and admit they were terribly wrong? Hell no!
OH no Charlie. The moment I read things like that it tells me to get out. I can't bring myself to give up on the market (I'm 80/20 righ now) with such an accomodating money policy, great efficiencies in corporate america, a possible lower corporate tax rate and a great fed growth expectation feeding greater and greater profits to lean corporations. I can't leave a market that good. But when I read things pointing to extremes either way it's time to sell (or buy if the extreme being pointed to is the wrong way)
BTW - still have 8-12" of snow on my front lawn, even after a pair of days this week with 65 degree temps. This snow is a glacier with a ton of water content and weighs like granite. I am 25-30 air miles south of NYC.
http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=2s7gawh&s=7
http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=213ondc&s=7
I am really impressed by the fact that you still had close to a foot of "glacier" on your front yard after some very warm weather recently. Incredible! Here in Des Moines the snow cover vanished the past 5 days or so. Without the snow cover, we warmed to a record tying 68 degrees yesterday. There were numerous record highs in the Midwest yesterday. In fact, some places' like Des Moines also had record high minimums (41 in Des Moines). We expect more record or near record warm temperatures from here south on Sunday before it turns colder more consistently.
Sort of like the spread between Brent and WTI!
Regards,
OW
What does anyone else think about the plan of attack going forward with AAPL? I am almost certain, it will still reach 400+ this year, but obviously if Jobs' health takes a turn for the worse, there will be a bigger sell-off before it recovers.
I have never made a meaningful amount of money if I did not have a concentrated position ...Doesn`t mean I didn`t ` sweat` every minute of it.... Tony
It will be interesting to see what TM and Len did, if anything, with AAPL today, Knowing TM, he probably doubled up at around $350.
Charlie...
Not this time.
After intensive research yesterday and late last night, I decided to sell ALL my AAPL stock today. My decision to sell is due (in small part) to the statistical decline in app sales growth (due to market saturation and fast-growing competition). It sends me a signal that the AAPL party is about to slow down. But, more significantly, after a ton of personal research into new upcoming tech products, I can assure you that there is some seriously terrific competition coming very soon that will indeed throw some wrenches into AAPL's gears.
I realize that AAPL will launch some updated products later this year, but regardless, I am not an owner of AAPL shares, given the combination of current factors.
I have no complaints, and the stock has really made me some serious green. Thanks for all your positive energy surrounding AAPL. I think it helped me to buy more of it when I otherwise might not have done so.
There is always the possibility that AAPL will rebound next week, but it will take a little while for me to be convinced that the stock has genuinely regained its strong legs and powerful prospects for massive growth. As I said, I think the party is slowing down for a while.
I am surprised that I reached this decision, but my homework truly convinced me, and I believe it is the right thing to do. Of course there is always the chance that I could be totally wrong on all of this, and if so I can always buy AAPL again, if I find the right reasons, and I look forward to that day. But, again, my research convinced me to sell.
TM