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On a brighter note, the overnight trading of the S & P has rallied from about 9 lower to about 1-2 higher as of this writing. I hope this is the trend tomorrow and that the Egyptian crisis will ease.
I am only in at about 1/3 of the previous overall value . I will watch the market and the news, and I will adjust my investment levels accordingly.
I have included a combination of financials, techs, energy, dividend-paying stocks, and a few favorites.
The remaining 2/3 is ready and waiting... depending on the latest developments.
TM
Regards,
OW
I'm not included in that group. AWD is not as significant here, given our more moderate climate. IMO, however, AWD makes good sense when one expects to drive often in snow.
BTW, I am no longer a BMW owner... and will think seriously before ever buying one again.
TM
I don't blame you one bit. Your BMW is my GM!
Regards,
OW
TM
The snow forecast in the Midwest also remains pretty much intact. I expect about 15-16 inches in Kansas City, only about 3-4 inches in Omaha, 10-12 in Des Moines, about 2 feet in southeast IA, northeast MO, and parts of central to northern IL, and a foot or more for northern IN and southern Lower MI. Blizzard conditions will be experienced in these areas tomorrow into a portion of Wednesday. There will be "mountainous drifts" especially out in the open country.
I am of the opinion that there is a subtle change in the overall pattern. There will be some retrogression (shifting a little west of the troughs and ridges). Therefore, the future storms for the Megalopolis may contain more rain than snow due to an overall milder pattern. The severe cold will be shifting to the Midwest. This suggests that perhaps the strong La Nina may be finally having some impact.
On the thread topic, looks like the markets are weathering the Egyptian storm fairly well. Nice to see. I am not as active an investor as most here - I only put into any markets what I take out of my pay every other week, but I did change some of my holdings a couple weeks ago - cut down bonds sharply.
I pulled out of the bond funds in my 401k too. As for my brokerage account I don't know what I'm going to do. Probably stay in cash for a while until I have more time to research. Or maybe go a buy something:)
Just looked out the window and the snow is coming down:(
So, as a result of today's market, I have continued to invest throughout the day. I am not quite as heavy on Ford as I was previously, but I have included it in my somewhat lengthy list of stocks. It's important to be in the market after a decline, otherwise there's no chance to gain back any of the decline... which would be a shame. On the other hand, if the volatility is too high the risk of further decline is also too high.
Wish I actually had that crystal ball that Len pictured me with last year.
Well, let's just hope it's all upside from here!
(Now that I am back in, I might have doomed the market for a while... sorry... lol.)
TM
This guy said that when we buy stocks, we generally look for those with a good track record and ones that have ALREADY gained a lot in price.
The stocks we sell are those that have ALREADY gone down in price quite a bit.
So there you have it. Instead of buying low and selling high, most of us tend to buy high and sell low !!
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
I envy your situation. You can get out and back in again "on a dime". Most of us do not have that flexibility. After all, we do have to pay commissions. Thus, unless I am of the opinion that a complete meltdown is on the way (as I did back in the spring and summer of 2008), I am inclined to stick with most of my portfolio.
I started to get the impression that the Egyptian crisis was getting ever so slightly better (Mubarak making concessions) over the weekend and then the S & P futures rallied from 9 lower to a couple higher by the time I went to bed last evening. That gave me even more confidence that the market was stabilizing. But the situation in Egypt and elsewhere in the Middle East is very scary and things could explode at any time. Having said this, however, I feel that the U.S. economy is THE most important factor and the U.S. economy is looking better and better. Therefore, the stock market should continue to climb and reach at least 13,000 on the Dow by the end of this year. Thus, breaks such as the one on Friday should be used as buying opportunities.
TM, I want you to place a market order to buy 2 million shares of AMZN and 5 million shares of F prior to the close so that they will go to the moon
Ouch! That is indeed a human characteristic. Unfortunately, that is 100% wrong.
Tag - what happened with you and BMW??
Likewise. I remember buying one of the very first Plasma TVs. I recall it was around $20,000.
Tag - what happened with you and BMW??
Fuel pump issues plagued the car. I reached an agreement with BMW, and I no longer own the car. They do. The financial details are confidential by mutual agreement. I can and am willing to say that BMW was extremely fair, understanding, and very professional. They totally and completely stepped up to the plate 100% to resolve the matter. In that regard, I have full respect for the company.
I drive the Vanden Plas, which continues to be a terrific vehicle... but I am looking forward to something new one of these days. Just don't know what it would be.
TM
I know, reliable but boring !!
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Mine is no where that extravagant, but I do have a 32" Sony Bravia XBR LCD that I bought in '05 for nearly $3k.
But no, I still can't see myself buying a Lexus. (Unless it was for my wife). I know it's silly, but I just won't drive one.
TM
When I sold my country club estate before moving to Malibu, the buyer wanted that plasma left in place. I had no problem with that... I was more thrilled that I actually had a qualified buyer for such an expensive high-end piece of property.
For that kind of money, I'd have included the car, if he had asked.
TM
Looks like the big banks are starting to move up again.
You silly boy! You don't know what you're missing
Changing the subject, I bought some more (21 shares) AAPL for my SEP IRA account this morning. Things in Egypt are unfolding as I had hoped and the market obviously likes it.
We are "only" going to end up with about 7 inches of snow with this system in Des Moines, but there will be tremendous blowing and drifting with blizzard conditions tonight. Kansas City will still get a foot. A place like Peoria, IL will get close to 2 feet with mountains as drifts. It still looks the same from New York south for tomorrow. Highs will reach the low 40s with rain. Boston will be a mess tomorrow with a mixture of everything. Just north of Boston, they will get a foot or more tomorrow into tomorrow evening.
Regards,
OW
Hey... this market is awesome. Some of my stocks, ARMH, GE, BAC, WFC, VOD, FDX, & UPS are doing just great.
BTW, forgive me, but speaking of weather... I just sat down to lunch, and I am wearing shorts, a t-shirt, and sunglasses. I am overlooking the Pacific Ocean, and the temp shows 74 degrees at this moment. It's a gorgeous day and I couldn't be much happier. :shades:
(Well... I guess I would be happier if my daughter's college tuition was fully paid, and I was about 25 years younger.
TM
Yes... That's great! I almost bought some, after we discussed it, but my broker argued against it and talked me out of it. I still don't know why he was against it.
But... consider that at this moment one of my stocks, ARMH, is up 8.35% TODAY ONLY! Now, THAT'S incredible.
TM
:surprise:
Ford has made me a small fortune!
I lost some of the icing on the cake last Friday, but the cake itself was very profitable, as I sold my entire portfolio of stocks on Friday, and then bought most everything back yesterday, and then some.
I did, however, considerably reduce the amound of Ford I purchased because at these current levels there is more headwind than there was when it was trading at a major discount.
I don't know the average price at which you own Ford, but if you got in late in the game, then you probably missed out. Going forward, as I said, I still own some, but it is no longer the focus of my portfolio. I do believe there is still upside, but compared to some other stocks, it's hard to justify a major holding.
If you can let me know your position on the stock, I could give you a better idea (my humble opinion) as to what I would recommend.
2011 should be a good year, and you should feel great about the stocks you own... all subject to the unexpected and subject to political interference.
TM
I may be wrong, but I get the impression that you are trying to accelerate your returns by leveraging your money rather than by purchasing stock shares in the more traditional way. A sophisticated trader can make a lot of green, but the risks can really escalate.
I hope you are careful, as I want you to buy that LFA... but not at the risk of going belly-up.
Please reassure me that you aren't going out on a limb with your investment techniques.
As far as Ford goes, I believe it is a great company in a dominant position, on a global level. But, there are constraints, and growth can't be unlimited. I personally believe Ford shares will reach $20-$22 in about 9 - 18 months. That's not awesome, but it's a part of my portfolio.
I now have a lot of dough in ARMH... but it's hard to say how much more upside it can offer. I personally think there is a bunch more, but that's my opinion.
TM
Back to Ford, if I go with LEAP, 20-22 target range would put me in the black, unless it goes side way right up to 2013.
Maybe I should put this money into CD's for safe keeping from myself :surprise:
I cleared the driveway 3 times yesterday and last night with my trusty Honda snow blower to try and stay ahead of things. One more good going over this morning and we will be in good shape. The d/w is fairly wide to accomodate a 3 car garage but not too long.
Ditto on the Lexus. We don't have to go anywhere but if we did my monster LX 460 would be up to the task. The LS will stay in the garage for now.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Tag, GS, etc.,
I finally decided to pull the plug on my F shares this morning. It has been acting horrible since the report. Thus, I did the unthinkable and sold low
As you already know, I sold all my Ford shares on Friday along with all my other equities. I lost the icing on the cake, but I still made a nice bundle.
When I repurchased stocks on Monday, I included Ford again, but nowhere as close to the prior levels. I simply cannot exclude it however. I see it gaining steadily over time. If it goes to the $20+ price in a year or two, that would be a 20%-25% return. I have no problem with that. I like the company, and I would be thrilled to see it do even better than I expect... which is entirely possible. On the other hand, if it goes sideways for a while, I don't think it will bother me so much when I have other incredible stocks in my portfolio.
For example, I mentioned to all of you that ARMH is my single largest holding. This stock went up 8.35% yesterday and is up almost 6% today. I have mentioned this stock in the past numerous times.
Of course I own AAPL, but there are others that I am really excited about as well. I bought GE when it was a dog, and recently it has been on fire. I had CMG for a while, but I finally let it go after it soared to the moon.
Anyway, I am holding a small, but reasonable amount of Ford and some GM as well, as I want to make absolutely sure I own a little of the auto sector in my portfolio.
TM
Is a correction almost here? The market is starting to look like maybe everyone's drinking Kool-Aid. It worries me. I hate the feeling when I get it, and I hate posting it, but concerns of a correction keep nagging at me.
Maybe it's just time to sit in cash for a while. I'll have to really think hard on this one. So far I'm thibking a 4%-8% correction (or more) could be very close. Darn.
TM
Good luck with that Ford investment. And to all of us that still believe strongly enough in Ford's continued and improving success story to continue to invest in the company.
TM
Considering everything going on both internationally and domestically, I am of the opinion that the market is acting quite nicely. I am keeping all my stocks for the longer term unless "hell freezes over". Oh wait! "Hell" (Midwest in winter) has frozen over
That doesn't mean, however, that correction(s) aren't going to happen. Most likely, we will see one, IMO... and it could be soon. The market will need a breather.
BTW, I've enjoyed reading your weather forecasts, and can't stress enough how happy I am to live in a micro-climate that is so wondferful and in stark contrast to the terrible and treacherous weather that you have been predicting for so much of the nation.
Lastly, with regards to Lexus... I truly believe (as we used to discuss) that Hyundai is a bigger threat than many believe, and is an amazing bargain. I saw the new Equus at the auto show last Thanksgiving, and it was nicer than a Lexus LS. Shocking. Also, the new Sonata is a steal, and the Genesis is also a very competitive value. But that Equus is the best luxury car value on the planet.
TM
Good thing they are not into making supercar yet.
Of course. All the readers here (millions of 'em, of course) now believe in Ford again after having read my posts in support of the company.
With regards to Hyundai, it probably won't be long before we see a serious sports car from them. Although I don't think anyone else can build an LFA.
TM
GS, you are smarter than that, aren't you
I'm holding firm on the market as advertising is absolutely booming right now.
Charlie - Re weather - no snow melt here from Chicago's great storm as we had a lot of ice and temps only reached 34 after the icestorm ended the other day. All the snow is deeply glazed now and must have 4" of water content. I saw weather models next week depicting a 972MB cyclone off Long Island and readings as low as 925-932MB when that cyclone gets up into Canada. The 925mb stom was in 474DM thickness on this mornings Euro model so it would be an arctic hurricane right out of "The Day after Tomorrow". I never saw anything other than a hurricane with a central pressure that low and for it to qrapped in cold air like that?? . Charlie - what the heck is going on with our atmosphere that computermodels are showing super storms with unheard of low pressures like that??
I must have forgotten exactly where you live in NJ. I thought you lived due south of New York City by about 30 miles. LGA reached 40, Philly was 42 while Atlantic City reached a very balmy 60. Are you located west southwest of New York instead? But in any case, you had very little melting. However, as I stated prior to the system, it has not gotten bitter cold behind that system. It will be mostly in the mid to upper 30s there through this weekend and into Monday. There will probably be a little bit of wet snow tomorrow night. Monday looks a little more troublesome with the latest GFS model. Even thought this run of the GFS has almost totally backed off from a potential historic system next Thursday/Friday, I have a feeling that the models will be going back and forth on this potential the next several days. There is still a chance for a "monster type" storm at that time. It will turn bitterly cold for you with respect to normal late next week through the weekend.
There are definite changes on the way during the 11-15 day period. More and more, it looks as if the strong La Nina type pattern will finally take effect. This means that the Southeast U.S. in particular will warm up a lot. The Midwest through the Northeast should be closer to normal after next week. Instead of pure Arctic high pressure systems dropping south from northwest Canada, there will be occasional "bleeding" of cold air oozing its way south from time to time.
Sounds like a serious (and smelly) digestive issue... I'd recommend seeing a doctor.
:P
TM