After intensive research yesterday and late last night, I decided to sell ALL my AAPL stock today. My decision to sell is due (in small part) to the statistical decline in app sales growth (due to market saturation and fast-growing competition).
Very interesting TM. I obviously should have dumped all my shares at the opening today. I would have saved quite a bit of $dough. But, at this point I am comfortable by having only half the position. I am actually thinking that I may buy back all the shares I sold today on Monday or Tuesday of next week depending on any important news that comes out over the weekend. I am still very convinced that AAPL will reach $400+ this year.
Not likely. Is there any record on here of Tag ever doing anything that wasn't exactly correct and perfectly timed?
I don't think so.
I do remember that he's left a lot of profit on the table with QLIK. Those were not not wrong moves because they probably helped him sleep better at night.
Oh gosh... In that case, I guess I might be due for a blunder.
Actually, I differ with GS's assessment regarding QLIK. I made a great lick on QLIK, SEVERAL times... timing it so well over and over... and althouh not perfect, it was damned close. Overall, incuding a couple of miscalls, I still made more money with my timing of QLIK than if I had simply bought it and held it... that's for sure.
But, my big blunder around here was when I owned a ton (multiple six digits!) of Citigroup stock, and waited patiently for it to go up... but I finally lost my patience after waiting sooooo long and I sold C right before it finally took off as I had originally predicted. Damn, that still bugs me... LOL.
Regarding AAPL... IF AAPL looks attractive again, I can always buy it again. Simple. But, I am here to say that (IMHO) there are seriously genuine reasons to consider that AAPL is due for a slowdown. I don't want to own the stock right now.
I for one didn't like at all that subscription plan. It reeks of a great greed and LT is not a healthy way to conduct business and will make them a lot of enemies. Google undercut them within 24 hours with a much more sensible plan. As great as Apple is they have to have partner content and excessive greed is the best way to wreck future partnerships.
The Steve Jobs health issue is what it is. It has never stopped Apple. But bad business decisions though will do the trick and IMO Apple needs to re-address this model and soon.
OW - I'm still loaded with snow front and back even after today's near 70. I've never seen snow survive like this. I have about 275' of elevation where I am and am heavily wooded so it's colder here, especially right at the ground level. I've seen water refreeze on my driveway even with temps at 40 a few feet higher off the ground. My entire front and back is sun drenched (my back faces south). But I was absolutely buried with 30-32" of snow back on December 26th and that mid January storm was also brutal with another 18".
The knee-jerk reaction over Jobs is something we have discussed, and it's always been a predictable event.
As you indicate, there are other matters at play here.
My decision to not own AAPL is all of one day old... and is certainly not permanent, unless of course the situation deteriorates. It goes without saying that if I see a strikingly positive situation for AAPL, at any time, I will not hesitate to buy it again. (I have previously shown without any doubt my willingness to make fast decisions if I see enough reason to do so.)
I spent many hours looking into some of the upcoming products/services from Samsung, Google, Sony (& Ericsson), HTC, Motorola, Acer, Dell, HP, Lenovo, RIM (Blackberry), NEC, and others. I believe that Android will continue to take increasing market share and that the combined efforts of all these other companies will cumulatively take its toll on AAPL.
In the meantime, AAPL is likely to roll out improved MacBook Pros as early as next week, which could be a helpful boost, and there are other surprises in the pipeline, of course.
I'll keep a watchful eye on AAPL, and I am not concerned if the stock goes up when I am not invested in it. I diverted part of the proceeds from my profitable sale of AAPL stock to Caterpillar today, so I suppose if I end up not profiting from AAPL for a while, I might instead be profiting from some other stocks! In addition to now owning CAT, I have some others in mind that I am going to do some homework on, such as Texas Instruments, Monsanto, Dupont, and a couple others.
Also, I am starting to sense that a positive twist in the nation's housing disaster might be getting closer and closer. I want to be ready to pounce on the appropriate undervalued stocks to take advantage of this AHEAD of the curve.
I currently own 41 different stocks and funds!... so it isn't necessary to own AAPL to be a profitable investor. But, if it looks attractive to me again, I'm a buyer again.
Also, I am starting to sense that a positive twist in the nation's housing disaster might be getting closer and closer. I want to be ready to pounce on the appropriate undervalued stocks to take advantage of this AHEAD of the curve.
That's music to my ears. It looks like the properties around Sarasota, where I bought a vacation home last year, have bottomed too. This is probably another required catalyst for BAC and C to start a real run up. What housing related stocks are you looking at?
I do not know which stocks yet... I will look into some home builders, such as TOL and KBH and others. I want to make sure you don't over-react to what I am saying about the housing market. There are still hurdles, and the climb back to health will be protracted.
Consumers will likely spend on remodeling and adding improvements to properties they already own before buying a new property. First-time buying activity will likely pick up as money becomes more available. Then, as the inventory of foreclosed homes starts to fade, the whole housing sector will start to improve overall.
Stocks like HD and LOW have already been benefiting from this. And, there are building material manufacturers that I want to check out as well.
That said... the economy is still vulnerable. As Charlie pointed out, we aren't hearing negative opinions lately. Well, IMO, this is NOT a good thing, and when everyone is drinking the Kool Aid, I get concerned.
Also IMO... OIL is a very big wildcard now. It could put huge brakes on the economic recovery.
I am still bullish... but I want us to get past all the political interference from our President and our Congress, as well ad our Fed, and the Middle East situation.
I will keep you updated on the stocks I uncover and ultimately decide upon regarding the housing sector. Again... that turnaround is a protracted event.
BTW, would you detail your opinion on AAPL I don't have any special insight into AAPL. It is Just a solid company with a lot of potential. Btw, I took a small dip into JDSU at around 25.
GS... I like you, buddy. You remind me of how I was when I was a young man. No one could stop me. I was going full steam ahead no matter what.
I remember when I reached my thirties, I had a Porsche 911 Targa and a Ferrari 328 GTS parked side by side in my garage. They were both red. I also owned a new boat and an RV, and I had paid off my mortgage on my house.
But, truth be told... I was filled with too much adrenaline, and if I had been smarter and more patient, I would have bought some solid equities and some commercial property.
I still find myself often driving in "the fast lane" of life, if you know what I mean. And the fast lane on the freeway as well. I still chase the "quick buck" now and then.
Guys like us can be very successful, but we have to be careful of our worst enemy... ourselves! I've learned this valuable lesson.
GS, maybe I am misreading you, but just in case, I hope you have you have a good set of brakes to go along with all your horsepower.
BTW, JDSU can be a rollercoaster. Let's hope for the best.
I'm in Apple fully yet. But I'm in largely since 160 so I have a lot of spare capacity. I did buy more at 302 when Steve Job's health brought down the stock despite great earnings news. I had been in way back at $84 and a stop loss I put in (and forgot about) triggered a sale at $128 when I was on vacaction after the stock had run to $140. Took me awhile to get over that and I stupidly let the stock run-up 30 points before I bought it back.
Here's a story re Apple and Google in todays Times re digital subs. I have not read it as yet and post it for anyone that missed it.
Len, I am not sure how exactly to interpret this article, but it does not sound very negative about Apple to me. In fact, it is likely positive.
I know that TM does not agree, but I really think that this is a buying opportunity not only for AAPL, but the stock market in general. I am not certain whether to do so this morning, or wait a few more days to see how things shake out in Libya.
I also read it as very positive and went in thinking it would be quite negative. What it's saying to me is that Apple owns the consumer and is simply replacing the newstand. And they are doing it throughout the world. Google is light years behind and in industries like this we rarely see a number 1 get overturned or even a close 2nd. It works like the liquor industry - which ages ago I worked in for a few years. I can't even begin to tell you how many cordials or new scothes etc were better, in many cases much better in liquor tastings. I was even at one where Amaretto de Sarona ranked dead last out of 5 on the table - by far. The issue is brand establishment for consumers and distribution ease for manufacturers. No one wants to pass up easy revenue for a new LT investment that may never get there or when it has a chance you lose out to someone else. So bottom line is that any manufacturer, in this case publisher, has to go with the distribution chain. Over time if Google gets there, they'll be a second additional choice, but to pass up Apple is like passing up Walnart if you are in the food business. I made this point the other day , that Apple is very hard to bring down because they exist at the manufacturing and consumer retail level. It takes a heck of an investment to match that successfully and as a result they know their customers and their preferences better than anyone right now. Consumers are also not buying technology here. They are buying their usual goods in a different way and Apple makes it the easiest for them with the best technological products anyway. The consumer wants what they want and they take the easiest route to get it and right now no one is even close to Apple in that.
I also think Google is fighting too many wars, is developing far too high an operating cost level, is still far and away best in search and LT that will be under enormous pressure from governments and from competition that will be a side product of social networks.
Re the market - it's an issue of timing on the middle east. Overall fundamentals are very solid and very positive for a continuing rise, probably to 14K on the Diow. But the middle east pressures infllation faster, and is probably the normal over-reaction, especially on oil. The economy is still fragile because of high unemployment but we are on the cusp of easing that. So I still love the market, the issue is how to play the next 10-20 days.
I know that TM does not agree, but I really think that this is a buying opportunity not only for AAPL, but the stock market in general.
To be clear about what I think on this...
IMO, it is not a buying opportunity when Apple's stock price is dropping like a rock. That said, when it oversells, or approaches or reaches its bottom, that is a good time to buy the stock.
If this price is, in fact, at or very close to the bottom, then I would never disagree that it would a good buying opportunity.
With regards to the market in general, I am still in the market, in a HUGE way... and because of that large level of exposure, I need to be extremely cautious. A couple of really bad days can be crushing. When both national and international events are so screwed up, it is difficult to deal with the political interference... which I have posted that I HATE. It interferes with the market and it is impossible to fully understand it and impossible to predict with any accuracy how the events will unfold. The market is much more predictable when there is a minimum of political interference.
Most politicians and leaders are pathetic, IMO, and make me sick to my stomach. It's what makes me want to get out of stocks altogether.
Google (Android) is already seriously denting AAPL, and will continue to do so... but much more.
There are numerous statistics on this. They are staggering... and easy to search on Apple... err, I mean GOOGLE!
I owned an iPhone before purchasing my HTC EVO 4G operating on Android. There is no comparison, IMO. Android is so much the better of the two, and it is part of the reason why sales of Android devices are growing at a MUCH faster pace than Apple devices.
That said, I love Apple as a company and I love many of its products... but business is war... and Google is now effectively bombing and damaging Apple.
BTW, I still own my Google stock.
TM
EDIT: WOW!! MY BROKER AND I JUST HAD A SERIOUS CONVERSATION, AND WE ARE NOW OUT OF THE MARKET COMPLETELY AND TOTALLY THIS MORNING! WE WILL RE-EVALUATE EVERYTHING LATER... AND I WILL EXPLAIN MORE IN FURTHER DISCUSSIONS AND KEEP YOU ALL POSTED.
Re Apple - I am talking consumer apps. Google is far far behind and the cell phone is not a big future money maker unless priced high enough. It'll be the razor-razor blade long-term thanks to the apps.
Re yesterdays NY Times - couple of other great stories on the Ipad in corporations and the role of social websites for TV.
IMO, it is not a buying opportunity when Apple's stock price is dropping like a rock. That said, when it oversells, or approaches or reaches its bottom, that is a good time to buy the stock.
Dah! TM, of course the good time to buy is the bottom. The question is, who knows exactly when the bottom is reached? No one! In my opinion, it is possible that the bottom was reached early this morning at $338. But, as I stated above, I was not sure if I should buy back today what I sold back on Friday or wait a few days until the Libyan situation plays itself out. I decided to wait a few days and play it safe. I am still of the strong opinion that AAPL will reach $400+ this year.
The market as a whole needed an excuse to have some sort of a correction. This is good for the market.
I do not know how you could possible hate the Android operating system, when it's flexibility allows the user to totally customize the experience. If you hate the experience, it is your own creation that you hate, and that is kind of weird, IMO. I have totally customized my Android device to be exactly how I like it. It took just a little effort, but was soooo worth it in the long run. It is an awesome mobile experience.
Also, many Android devices are much faster than Apple devices. Mine is multiple times faster.
Regarding apps... Android apps are now selling at a faster growth rate, and Apple apps have actually now reached the point of SLOWING DOWN for the first time. This is an important pivotal turning point! It has happened, and it is another critical piece of evidence. Additionally, the Android market has sooooo many apps now, it is ridiculous... and even more on the way. Almost every app will be available for Android before long. Further, there are now more and more ways to download Android apps from all platforms, and even Amazon.com is releasing an Android app market of their own.
Regarding tablets... the iPad was first out, and it is understandable that it would be the bigger seller... initially... but Android powered tablets sales are now growing at a MUCH faster pace, and this is just the beginning, as tons of new Android powered devices are about to hit the market.
Sorry, but as much as I love Apple, it is impossible to ignore the facts. And the facts are clear that Android is a superior open platform, customizeable, quicker, more versatile, and its sales momentum is growing at a faster pace.
The market as a whole needed an excuse to have some sort of a correction. This is good for the market.
THAT I agree with. But, I am not sure this is the complete correction. I want to see more, if possible. Then I will be comfortable to jump in HUGE again.
Appl PE is only 19X, Adjust market cap for their cash hoard and it's a few ticks lower than that. Too cheap IMO.
Tag - Apple has the high end products - whether perceived or otherwise. They are tightly controlled and will have high functionality and quality. The android will be much more ungoverned and viewed as lower end. I see all the high margins in Appl and all low to unprofitable ones in the android. I never expected non competition here and in the end its the profits not the revenue that matters. BTW - I'm not alone on the android. My partner just dumped his for an Iphone. He hated it too and loves the latter. Me - I'm too cheap to do that after 4 months. Give me to summer.
Yes, I know Apple has high end products. So does Mercedes. But, most people still buy lots of lower tiered products. I am not putting down Apple or its products. I love the company and its products.
But, Android is open platform. Can be on products of ALL tiers. My HTC EVO 4G is not a low-end product. It is FAR more advanced, much faster, more powerful, with way better camera and video specifications than the iPhone.
I am not sure this is the complete correction. I want to see more, if possible. Then I will be comfortable to jump in HUGE again.
I was speaking mostly about AAPL and not the market as whole about possibly reaching a bottom today. I still think it's possible that the $338 level for AAPL will hold. We have to keep in mind that AAPL took a big hit late last week as well while the rest of the market was doing fine. I agree that the market in general may have more downside before it recovers in a big way.
I pulled the trigger and bought all the shares back (and a few more) of AAPL this morning that I had sold last week. I bought them at around $340 for better or for worse. That $338 level reached yesterday seems to be holding at least for now.
I am impressed with AAPL's holding power against this terrible market decline. In spite of my concerns, I could not ignore this, so I purchased $40K of AAPL shares this morning at the same price point as you.
As of this moment, I am still totally avoiding the rest of the market, with exception of my funds, which I never sold.
I believe I am way ahead of where I would otherwise have been if I didn't sell all my shares of 40+ individual stocks yesterday.
Sold QLIK this morning at a nice profit...might buy it back later. I still like it long term. Bought some XOM just so I would not be too mad at $4. gas. !
TM, a few months ago you were saying that you would forgo buying the iPad and instead wait for the new Macbook Air. Did you buy it yet? It seems like an awesome little computer.
TM, a few months ago you were saying that you would forgo buying the iPad and instead wait for the new Macbook Air. Did you buy it yet? It seems like an awesome little computer.
Not yet.
Reasons?
1. I wanted to see the new MacBook Pros first. As it turns out they were just released this week, and I was hoping for a powerful smaller model, or at least a big boost in capability for the 13"... but instead, the 13" gained a few so-so features and has now tragically been stripped of discrete graphics (GPU), which is absolutely pathetic.
2. Waited to see the Macbook Air reviews.
3. There is an upcoming newer version that is rumored to be released sooner than usual, with features that are reported to be well worth waiting for.
4. Wife is considering an iMac, and daughter (who already has a MacBook Pro and iPod) now wants an iPhone... so the girls come first.
5. My current smartphone is VERY capable. So, along with my desktop... the need is minimum.
6. If wife gets and likes an iMac, I might also, and then perhaps break down and go with iPhones... in order to get everything working together in perfect Apple harmony.
That all said, I think the MacBook Air is a MUCH better choice than an iPad... by leaps and bounds.
Hey... because you are my good friend, I want you to keep you in the loop and let you know that I just got back in the market on all 40+ stocks that I previously had in my portfolio. However, for now I purchased 50% of the quantity of shares that I previously owned, because I was previously in pretty deep. I will invest more in the near future.
For now, I am keeping the $40K worth of AAPL stock that I bought yesterday at about $340/share, and am not adding to that yet.
Overall, by selling everything... I avoided some of the downside... and that was my goal.
Anyway, I think we are going to benefit from our moves with AAPL... and it seems we now both own this latest round of AAPL shares at the same price point.
BTW, you thinking of trading in your iPad for that sexy little MacBook Air?
I invested about $60K in AAPL yesterday morning. I see that AAPL and the market in general stinks as I post this message. AAPL is in danger of going below that $338 level.
Come on all you traders around the world! Don't you realize that what is happening in Libya and elsewhere in that part of the world is good for the long term? All those ruthless dictators will be forever gone and replaced by democracies. As I stated before, the market needed an excuse to sell off and it got one. But I feel good about its future.
All those ruthless dictators will be forever gone and replaced by democracies.
You are a funny guy. I think Gaddafi will only go down taking about a million of his own with him to hell. But he is buddies with Obama so maybe after the party tonight they can get together and sort things out. still laughing....
I look for a lot bigger mess before it ever gets better. You don't just start a democracy over night. Especially when you have Islamic extremists waiting in the wings. I think the secular dictators will seem good compared to what they get. Think Taliban.
PS If we get the price of oil back under $100 the market should resume the upward trend I hope as I have not sold anything,
I invested about $60K in AAPL yesterday morning. I see that AAPL and the market in general stinks as I post this message. AAPL is in danger of going below that $338 level.
You are in AAPL deeper than I am. I am holding back on my market (including AAPL) exposure until I feel it is stabilized a little more. As I mentioned, I just went back in at 50% of my previous holdings, so I do feel that we are near a bottom.
If AAPL goes below $338/share, I will watch it closely, and then possibly buy more.
I look for a lot bigger mess before it ever gets better. You don't just start a democracy over night. Especially when you have Islamic extremists waiting in the wings.
Obviously, there will be turmoil for a while, but again I am talking long term. I really believe that because of the Internet and the young population in these nations, it will not allow the extremists to take control. The Internet has awakened the youth of the suppressed world that there is a much better life to live. Call me a "dreamer but I'm not the only one" (John Lennon) but I truly believe that there will be a better world 10 years from now than we have today.
One other thing! Oil is trading well below $100 now. All this is BS speculation (inventories are standing at record levels) in the first place. I must have heard that "oil will reach $220" at least 20 times yesterday on CNBC and Bloomberg.
Call me a "dreamer but I'm not the only one" (John Lennon) but I truly believe that there will be a better world 10 years from now than we have today.
Totally agree, if we don't kill ourselves first.
There have always been a handful of psychopaths that gain the means and/or power to cause massive destruction... whether by themselves or by convincing or controlling masses of people to follow in their misguided or insane footsteps.
From Biblical times to our modern times. And today, in addition to the steath nature of deadly terrorists, we can consider North Korea and even worse consider IRAN as possible catalysts for disaster.
Beyond that, the typical risks of ecological and natural disasters and pandemics are always considerations.
However, we continue to improve.
Just recently, however, we have all been through a lot. Think about it... We have dealt with the worst attacks on U.S soil - - on 9-11, biological attacks sent through the U.S postal system, War in Iraq, Hurricane Katrina, the Financial Crisis & Economic Meltdown, ongoing terrorism, the contraversy of President Obama's policies & programs, Economic Stimulus, TARP, QE-1, QE-2, Bernie Madoff and scandalls, the threat of a deadly flu-type pandemic, Wall-Street's instant market drop, the influence of George Soros, the European Debt Crisis, the Gulf Oil Spill, threats from North Korea, Iran's Nuclear Threat, the War in Afghanistan, the ongoing foreclosure crisis, unclear tax policies (and Bush tax-cut extensions), the firing of Juan Williams, the "mandate" election that has shifted Congressional power, politically motivated murder in Arizona, the internal struggles and overthrow in Egypt, and now spreading to Lybia and other Middle East countries, threats of inflation and $4/gal gas, American States potentially going Bankrupt, and more.
Incredible! Yet we are getting stronger... right?
But, I must add this little tidbit... IMHO, one of the worst things that we all endure in this country is the media mogul billionaire Oprah Winfrey. She is still out there as a massively powerful influence to millions of folks, mostly women, on marriage and divorce, and how to raise children... when Oprah herself has NEVER once experienced marriage (or therefore divorce) OR raising children, or a normal healthy family for that matter. In reality, she suffered from a mentally sick and terribly abusive childhood. While she does do some genuine good at times, the truth is that she has absolutely no experience with regards to a healthy marriage, raising kids, or a healthy family. IMO, it's simply horrifying that someone that has literally ZERO experience in those most critically important aspects of normal healthy family life, is in a position of so much influence in those same areas. I believe that it is deception at the worst possible level. She is in a financial and media position to self-promote herself and her influence... make herself look good and her opinions look good... so there is really very little anyone can do about it. IMO, this means that too many married mothers are sucking up the perspectives of marriage (and divorce) and motherhood from a woman who has never experienced any of them. IMO, it would be just as stupid to ask a pastry chef how to be a race-car driver, or a baseball umpire how to perform brain surgery.
Now, enough about Oprah and back to the topic...
Once again, I agree with you, with the hope that none of the seemingly ongoing disasters cause the next generation to suffer... but rather that they make all of us stronger and better from generation to generation.
"She is still out there as a massively powerful influence to millions of folks, mostly women, on marriage and divorce, and how to raise children... when Oprah herself has NEVER once experienced marriage (or therefore divorce) OR raising children, or a normal healthy family for that matter."
Well, GEE, Tag, didn't you know that some of the BEST advice about raising kids comes from those that don't have any?
Remember Dr. Spock and his selling Millions of books on child rearing. He never had any kids and the ones raised by those that read the books did not all turn out so well. Mostly poor advice from what I remember. It is amazing who will accept advice from.
No substitute for lots of research. Or having inside information. :shades:
So, I will take this a little further before getting back on topic...
I know this sounds harsh, but I am willing to bet that when the day comes that Oprah Winfrey is finally off the air and through with her massive persuasive media business, the divorce rate will begin an historic decline, and men and women will begin to get along better.
In addition to Oprah's ZERO experience with marriage and raising children, I believe she is seriously emotionally damaged, and that she has demonstrated an unusual deeply rooted hatred for men, all due to her mentally sick experience with child abuse. Yet she is a self-promoting ambassador for women... and her perspective (and lifestyle, in part), which is warped (again due to her own total lack of a healthy childhood, lack of any marriage whatsoever, and lack of the experience of raising kids) is so often about women's self-indulgence and self-centeredness.
Over the years, she has demonstrated this "defense" for women attitude, that sometimes even suggests that men are the "enemy"... much of which, IMO, is obviously deeply-rooted from her days of tragic and mentally sick childhood abuse. I do want to point out that I think she does, to an extent, love (and attempt to protect) women, which is understandable, but it does not come from a normal and healthy internal place. There is an attitude that women are "more important" or "better" than men. IMO, Oprah projects an invisible, yet perceivable, wall between men and women... and again, due to her sick background and lack of normal family experience, makes this understandable... but there is ultimately an unavoidable negative impact upon many millions of women (and men).
IMO, if Oprah Winfrey was truly the loving person she claims to be, she would realize that she has a damaged perspective, and that she should remove herself from her position of massive influence and she would retire. Unfortunately, she has convinced herself, and others due to her powerful position of self-promotion, of the idea that she is doing the "right" thing.
I feel deeply sorry for Oprah Winfrey, that her life has lacked a normal childhood, lacked the experience of marriage, and lacked the miracle of being a parent and raising kids. Those experiences are some of the most meaningful blessings of life.
It's a shame. And it's disappointing that she is in such a position of massive distorted influence. But, fortunately, it's not forever. Ultimately, and thankfully, the genuine truth has a miraculous way of surfacing over time.
Comments
After intensive research yesterday and late last night, I decided to sell ALL my AAPL stock today. My decision to sell is due (in small part) to the statistical decline in app sales growth (due to market saturation and fast-growing competition).
Very interesting TM. I obviously should have dumped all my shares at the opening today. I would have saved quite a bit of $dough. But, at this point I am comfortable by having only half the position. I am actually thinking that I may buy back all the shares I sold today on Monday or Tuesday of next week depending on any important news that comes out over the weekend. I am still very convinced that AAPL will reach $400+ this year.
With the both of you selling AAPL, I think it will it 400 next week . :surprise:
Not likely. Is there any record on here of Tag ever doing anything that wasn't exactly correct and perfectly timed?
I don't think so.
I don't think so.
I do remember that he's left a lot of profit on the table with QLIK. Those were not not wrong moves because they probably helped him sleep better at night.
Actually, I differ with GS's assessment regarding QLIK. I made a great lick on QLIK, SEVERAL times... timing it so well over and over... and althouh not perfect, it was damned close. Overall, incuding a couple of miscalls, I still made more money with my timing of QLIK than if I had simply bought it and held it... that's for sure.
But, my big blunder around here was when I owned a ton (multiple six digits!) of Citigroup stock, and waited patiently for it to go up... but I finally lost my patience after waiting sooooo long and I sold C right before it finally took off as I had originally predicted. Damn, that still bugs me... LOL.
Regarding AAPL... IF AAPL looks attractive again, I can always buy it again. Simple. But, I am here to say that (IMHO) there are seriously genuine reasons to consider that AAPL is due for a slowdown. I don't want to own the stock right now.
TM
The Steve Jobs health issue is what it is. It has never stopped Apple. But bad business decisions though will do the trick and IMO Apple needs to re-address this model and soon.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
As you indicate, there are other matters at play here.
My decision to not own AAPL is all of one day old... and is certainly not permanent, unless of course the situation deteriorates. It goes without saying that if I see a strikingly positive situation for AAPL, at any time, I will not hesitate to buy it again. (I have previously shown without any doubt my willingness to make fast decisions if I see enough reason to do so.)
I spent many hours looking into some of the upcoming products/services from Samsung, Google, Sony (& Ericsson), HTC, Motorola, Acer, Dell, HP, Lenovo, RIM (Blackberry), NEC, and others. I believe that Android will continue to take increasing market share and that the combined efforts of all these other companies will cumulatively take its toll on AAPL.
In the meantime, AAPL is likely to roll out improved MacBook Pros as early as next week, which could be a helpful boost, and there are other surprises in the pipeline, of course.
I'll keep a watchful eye on AAPL, and I am not concerned if the stock goes up when I am not invested in it. I diverted part of the proceeds from my profitable sale of AAPL stock to Caterpillar today, so I suppose if I end up not profiting from AAPL for a while, I might instead be profiting from some other stocks! In addition to now owning CAT, I have some others in mind that I am going to do some homework on, such as Texas Instruments, Monsanto, Dupont, and a couple others.
Also, I am starting to sense that a positive twist in the nation's housing disaster might be getting closer and closer. I want to be ready to pounce on the appropriate undervalued stocks to take advantage of this AHEAD of the curve.
I currently own 41 different stocks and funds!... so it isn't necessary to own AAPL to be a profitable investor. But, if it looks attractive to me again, I'm a buyer again.
TM
Regards,
OW
That's music to my ears. It looks like the properties around Sarasota, where I bought a vacation home last year, have bottomed too. This is probably another required catalyst for BAC and C to start a real run up. What housing related stocks are you looking at?
Consumers will likely spend on remodeling and adding improvements to properties they already own before buying a new property. First-time buying activity will likely pick up as money becomes more available. Then, as the inventory of foreclosed homes starts to fade, the whole housing sector will start to improve overall.
Stocks like HD and LOW have already been benefiting from this. And, there are building material manufacturers that I want to check out as well.
That said... the economy is still vulnerable. As Charlie pointed out, we aren't hearing negative opinions lately. Well, IMO, this is NOT a good thing, and when everyone is drinking the Kool Aid, I get concerned.
Also IMO... OIL is a very big wildcard now. It could put huge brakes on the economic recovery.
I am still bullish... but I want us to get past all the political interference from our President and our Congress, as well ad our Fed, and the Middle East situation.
I will keep you updated on the stocks I uncover and ultimately decide upon regarding the housing sector. Again... that turnaround is a protracted event.
BTW, would you detail your opinion on AAPL?
TM
I don't have any special insight into AAPL. It is Just a solid company with a lot of potential.
Btw, I took a small dip into JDSU at around 25.
GS... I like you, buddy. You remind me of how I was when I was a young man. No one could stop me. I was going full steam ahead no matter what.
I remember when I reached my thirties, I had a Porsche 911 Targa and a Ferrari 328 GTS parked side by side in my garage. They were both red. I also owned a new boat and an RV, and I had paid off my mortgage on my house.
But, truth be told... I was filled with too much adrenaline, and if I had been smarter and more patient, I would have bought some solid equities and some commercial property.
I still find myself often driving in "the fast lane" of life, if you know what I mean. And the fast lane on the freeway as well. I still chase the "quick buck" now and then.
Guys like us can be very successful, but we have to be careful of our worst enemy... ourselves! I've learned this valuable lesson.
GS, maybe I am misreading you, but just in case, I hope you have you have a good set of brakes to go along with all your horsepower.
BTW, JDSU can be a rollercoaster. Let's hope for the best.
TM
I'll be darned! I also bought a little of this stock early last week. Is this great minds thinking alike or is it stupid minds thinking alike?
Here's a story re Apple and Google in todays Times re digital subs. I have not read it as yet and post it for anyone that missed it.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/21/business/media/21carr.html?scp=1&sq=2%20platfo- - - - rms&st=Search
Len... I'm out of Apple fully... Too much Apple Kool-Aid for me. I've taken my profits.
In fact, the more I give it serious thought, I just may be out of the entire stock market Tuesday morning.
TM
I know that TM does not agree, but I really think that this is a buying opportunity not only for AAPL, but the stock market in general. I am not certain whether to do so this morning, or wait a few more days to see how things shake out in Libya.
I also think Google is fighting too many wars, is developing far too high an operating cost level, is still far and away best in search and LT that will be under enormous pressure from governments and from competition that will be a side product of social networks.
Re the market - it's an issue of timing on the middle east. Overall fundamentals are very solid and very positive for a continuing rise, probably to 14K on the Diow. But the middle east pressures infllation faster, and is probably the normal over-reaction, especially on oil. The economy is still fragile because of high unemployment but we are on the cusp of easing that. So I still love the market, the issue is how to play the next 10-20 days.
To be clear about what I think on this...
IMO, it is not a buying opportunity when Apple's stock price is dropping like a rock. That said, when it oversells, or approaches or reaches its bottom, that is a good time to buy the stock.
If this price is, in fact, at or very close to the bottom, then I would never disagree that it would a good buying opportunity.
With regards to the market in general, I am still in the market, in a HUGE way... and because of that large level of exposure, I need to be extremely cautious. A couple of really bad days can be crushing. When both national and international events are so screwed up, it is difficult to deal with the political interference... which I have posted that I HATE. It interferes with the market and it is impossible to fully understand it and impossible to predict with any accuracy how the events will unfold. The market is much more predictable when there is a minimum of political interference.
Most politicians and leaders are pathetic, IMO, and make me sick to my stomach. It's what makes me want to get out of stocks altogether.
TM
There are numerous statistics on this. They are staggering... and easy to search on Apple... err, I mean GOOGLE!
I owned an iPhone before purchasing my HTC EVO 4G operating on Android. There is no comparison, IMO. Android is so much the better of the two, and it is part of the reason why sales of Android devices are growing at a MUCH faster pace than Apple devices.
That said, I love Apple as a company and I love many of its products... but business is war... and Google is now effectively bombing and damaging Apple.
BTW, I still own my Google stock.
TM
EDIT: WOW!! MY BROKER AND I JUST HAD A SERIOUS CONVERSATION, AND WE ARE NOW OUT OF THE MARKET COMPLETELY AND TOTALLY THIS MORNING! WE WILL RE-EVALUATE EVERYTHING LATER... AND I WILL EXPLAIN MORE IN FURTHER DISCUSSIONS AND KEEP YOU ALL POSTED.
TM
Re Apple - I am talking consumer apps. Google is far far behind and the cell phone is not a big future money maker unless priced high enough. It'll be the razor-razor blade long-term thanks to the apps.
Re yesterdays NY Times - couple of other great stories on the Ipad in corporations and the role of social websites for TV.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/21/technology/21tablet.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=After%2- - 0Ipad%20headstart&st=cse
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/21/business/media/21watercooler.html?scp=1&sq=tun- - ed%20in%20to%202%20screens&st=cse
Dah! TM, of course the good time to buy is the bottom. The question is, who knows exactly when the bottom is reached? No one! In my opinion, it is possible that the bottom was reached early this morning at $338. But, as I stated above, I was not sure if I should buy back today what I sold back on Friday or wait a few days until the Libyan situation plays itself out. I decided to wait a few days and play it safe. I am still of the strong opinion that AAPL will reach $400+ this year.
The market as a whole needed an excuse to have some sort of a correction. This is good for the market.
I do not know how you could possible hate the Android operating system, when it's flexibility allows the user to totally customize the experience. If you hate the experience, it is your own creation that you hate, and that is kind of weird, IMO. I have totally customized my Android device to be exactly how I like it. It took just a little effort, but was soooo worth it in the long run. It is an awesome mobile experience.
Also, many Android devices are much faster than Apple devices. Mine is multiple times faster.
Regarding apps... Android apps are now selling at a faster growth rate, and Apple apps have actually now reached the point of SLOWING DOWN for the first time. This is an important pivotal turning point! It has happened, and it is another critical piece of evidence. Additionally, the Android market has sooooo many apps now, it is ridiculous... and even more on the way. Almost every app will be available for Android before long. Further, there are now more and more ways to download Android apps from all platforms, and even Amazon.com is releasing an Android app market of their own.
Regarding tablets... the iPad was first out, and it is understandable that it would be the bigger seller... initially... but Android powered tablets sales are now growing at a MUCH faster pace, and this is just the beginning, as tons of new Android powered devices are about to hit the market.
Sorry, but as much as I love Apple, it is impossible to ignore the facts. And the facts are clear that Android is a superior open platform, customizeable, quicker, more versatile, and its sales momentum is growing at a faster pace.
TM
THAT I agree with. But, I am not sure this is the complete correction. I want to see more, if possible. Then I will be comfortable to jump in HUGE again.
TM
Tag - Apple has the high end products - whether perceived or otherwise. They are tightly controlled and will have high functionality and quality. The android will be much more ungoverned and viewed as lower end. I see all the high margins in Appl and all low to unprofitable ones in the android. I never expected non competition here and in the end its the profits not the revenue that matters. BTW - I'm not alone on the android. My partner just dumped his for an Iphone. He hated it too and loves the latter. Me - I'm too cheap to do that after 4 months. Give me to summer.
But, Android is open platform. Can be on products of ALL tiers. My HTC EVO 4G is not a low-end product. It is FAR more advanced, much faster, more powerful, with way better camera and video specifications than the iPhone.
TM
I was speaking mostly about AAPL and not the market as whole about possibly reaching a bottom today. I still think it's possible that the $338 level for AAPL will hold. We have to keep in mind that AAPL took a big hit late last week as well while the rest of the market was doing fine. I agree that the market in general may have more downside before it recovers in a big way.
TM
I am impressed with AAPL's holding power against this terrible market decline. In spite of my concerns, I could not ignore this, so I purchased $40K of AAPL shares this morning at the same price point as you.
As of this moment, I am still totally avoiding the rest of the market, with exception of my funds, which I never sold.
I believe I am way ahead of where I would otherwise have been if I didn't sell all my shares of 40+ individual stocks yesterday.
TM
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Not yet.
Reasons?
1. I wanted to see the new MacBook Pros first. As it turns out they were just released this week, and I was hoping for a powerful smaller model, or at least a big boost in capability for the 13"... but instead, the 13" gained a few so-so features and has now tragically been stripped of discrete graphics (GPU), which is absolutely pathetic.
2. Waited to see the Macbook Air reviews.
3. There is an upcoming newer version that is rumored to be released sooner than usual, with features that are reported to be well worth waiting for.
4. Wife is considering an iMac, and daughter (who already has a MacBook Pro and iPod) now wants an iPhone... so the girls come first.
5. My current smartphone is VERY capable. So, along with my desktop... the need is minimum.
6. If wife gets and likes an iMac, I might also, and then perhaps break down and go with iPhones... in order to get everything working together in perfect Apple harmony.
That all said, I think the MacBook Air is a MUCH better choice than an iPad... by leaps and bounds.
TM
OK !
Hey... because you are my good friend, I want you to keep you in the loop and let you know that I just got back in the market on all 40+ stocks that I previously had in my portfolio. However, for now I purchased 50% of the quantity of shares that I previously owned, because I was previously in pretty deep. I will invest more in the near future.
For now, I am keeping the $40K worth of AAPL stock that I bought yesterday at about $340/share, and am not adding to that yet.
Overall, by selling everything... I avoided some of the downside... and that was my goal.
Anyway, I think we are going to benefit from our moves with AAPL... and it seems we now both own this latest round of AAPL shares at the same price point.
BTW, you thinking of trading in your iPad for that sexy little MacBook Air?
TM
Come on all you traders around the world! Don't you realize that what is happening in Libya and elsewhere in that part of the world is good for the long term? All those ruthless dictators will be forever gone and replaced by democracies. As I stated before, the market needed an excuse to sell off and it got one. But I feel good about its future.
You are a funny guy. I think Gaddafi will only go down taking about a million of his own with him to hell. But he is buddies with Obama so maybe after the party tonight they can get together and sort things out. still laughing....
I look for a lot bigger mess before it ever gets better. You don't just start a democracy over night. Especially when you have Islamic extremists waiting in the wings. I think the secular dictators will seem good compared to what they get. Think Taliban.
PS
If we get the price of oil back under $100 the market should resume the upward trend I hope as I have not sold anything,
You are in AAPL deeper than I am. I am holding back on my market (including AAPL) exposure until I feel it is stabilized a little more. As I mentioned, I just went back in at 50% of my previous holdings, so I do feel that we are near a bottom.
If AAPL goes below $338/share, I will watch it closely, and then possibly buy more.
TM
Just like all those politicians, I am here to service you !!
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Obviously, there will be turmoil for a while, but again I am talking long term. I really believe that because of the Internet and the young population in these nations, it will not allow the extremists to take control. The Internet has awakened the youth of the suppressed world that there is a much better life to live. Call me a "dreamer but I'm not the only one" (John Lennon) but I truly believe that there will be a better world 10 years from now than we have today.
One other thing! Oil is trading well below $100 now. All this is BS speculation (inventories are standing at record levels) in the first place. I must have heard that "oil will reach $220" at least 20 times yesterday on CNBC and Bloomberg.
I do hope you are right. I would like to leave my grandkids in better shape than I was.
As far as oil I don't trust the traders to do anything honest. They have the ethics of Madoff. I see the market likes the downward trend in oil.
Totally agree, if we don't kill ourselves first.
There have always been a handful of psychopaths that gain the means and/or power to cause massive destruction... whether by themselves or by convincing or controlling masses of people to follow in their misguided or insane footsteps.
From Biblical times to our modern times. And today, in addition to the steath nature of deadly terrorists, we can consider North Korea and even worse consider IRAN as possible catalysts for disaster.
Beyond that, the typical risks of ecological and natural disasters and pandemics are always considerations.
However, we continue to improve.
Just recently, however, we have all been through a lot. Think about it... We have dealt with the worst attacks on U.S soil - - on 9-11, biological attacks sent through the U.S postal system, War in Iraq, Hurricane Katrina, the Financial Crisis & Economic Meltdown, ongoing terrorism, the contraversy of President Obama's policies & programs, Economic Stimulus, TARP, QE-1, QE-2, Bernie Madoff and scandalls, the threat of a deadly flu-type pandemic, Wall-Street's instant market drop, the influence of George Soros, the European Debt Crisis, the Gulf Oil Spill, threats from North Korea, Iran's Nuclear Threat, the War in Afghanistan, the ongoing foreclosure crisis, unclear tax policies (and Bush tax-cut extensions), the firing of Juan Williams, the "mandate" election that has shifted Congressional power, politically motivated murder in Arizona, the internal struggles and overthrow in Egypt, and now spreading to Lybia and other Middle East countries, threats of inflation and $4/gal gas, American States potentially going Bankrupt, and more.
Incredible! Yet we are getting stronger... right?
But, I must add this little tidbit... IMHO, one of the worst things that we all endure in this country is the media mogul billionaire Oprah Winfrey. She is still out there as a massively powerful influence to millions of folks, mostly women, on marriage and divorce, and how to raise children... when Oprah herself has NEVER once experienced marriage (or therefore divorce) OR raising children, or a normal healthy family for that matter. In reality, she suffered from a mentally sick and terribly abusive childhood. While she does do some genuine good at times, the truth is that she has absolutely no experience with regards to a healthy marriage, raising kids, or a healthy family. IMO, it's simply horrifying that someone that has literally ZERO experience in those most critically important aspects of normal healthy family life, is in a position of so much influence in those same areas. I believe that it is deception at the worst possible level. She is in a financial and media position to self-promote herself and her influence... make herself look good and her opinions look good... so there is really very little anyone can do about it. IMO, this means that too many married mothers are sucking up the perspectives of marriage (and divorce) and motherhood from a woman who has never experienced any of them. IMO, it would be just as stupid to ask a pastry chef how to be a race-car driver, or a baseball umpire how to perform brain surgery.
Now, enough about Oprah and back to the topic...
Once again, I agree with you, with the hope that none of the seemingly ongoing disasters cause the next generation to suffer... but rather that they make all of us stronger and better from generation to generation.
TM
Well, GEE, Tag, didn't you know that some of the BEST advice about raising kids comes from those that don't have any?
:shades:
LOL.
TM
No substitute for lots of research. Or having inside information. :shades:
You guys definitely get it.
So, I will take this a little further before getting back on topic...
I know this sounds harsh, but I am willing to bet that when the day comes that Oprah Winfrey is finally off the air and through with her massive persuasive media business, the divorce rate will begin an historic decline, and men and women will begin to get along better.
In addition to Oprah's ZERO experience with marriage and raising children, I believe she is seriously emotionally damaged, and that she has demonstrated an unusual deeply rooted hatred for men, all due to her mentally sick experience with child abuse. Yet she is a self-promoting ambassador for women... and her perspective (and lifestyle, in part), which is warped (again due to her own total lack of a healthy childhood, lack of any marriage whatsoever, and lack of the experience of raising kids) is so often about women's self-indulgence and self-centeredness.
Over the years, she has demonstrated this "defense" for women attitude, that sometimes even suggests that men are the "enemy"... much of which, IMO, is obviously deeply-rooted from her days of tragic and mentally sick childhood abuse. I do want to point out that I think she does, to an extent, love (and attempt to protect) women, which is understandable, but it does not come from a normal and healthy internal place. There is an attitude that women are "more important" or "better" than men. IMO, Oprah projects an invisible, yet perceivable, wall between men and women... and again, due to her sick background and lack of normal family experience, makes this understandable... but there is ultimately an unavoidable negative impact upon many millions of women (and men).
IMO, if Oprah Winfrey was truly the loving person she claims to be, she would realize that she has a damaged perspective, and that she should remove herself from her position of massive influence and she would retire. Unfortunately, she has convinced herself, and others due to her powerful position of self-promotion, of the idea that she is doing the "right" thing.
I feel deeply sorry for Oprah Winfrey, that her life has lacked a normal childhood, lacked the experience of marriage, and lacked the miracle of being a parent and raising kids. Those experiences are some of the most meaningful blessings of life.
It's a shame. And it's disappointing that she is in such a position of massive distorted influence. But, fortunately, it's not forever. Ultimately, and thankfully, the genuine truth has a miraculous way of surfacing over time.
TM