It's hard to know with certainty, but it is starting to appear that I may have once again done a damned good job of timing the market. If so, I am going to pat myself on the back for this one... because I have had a lot of stocks riding on this.
I could have really gotten in trouble, but I definitely avoided a nasty load of losses, and now it also appears that I got back in at just the right time!
We will see how it goes from here. I don't know if we are totally out of the woods yet. I expect my next move will be to buy more equities at some point relatively soon... hopefully during a dip.
I hope it's working out well for all of you. Charlie, I think we are in a good position with AAPL.
I never keft the party. Again - I think the stock is too cheap and will run to at least 450 in 6-7 months.
As a result of not leaving the party and not getting some fresh air... you got stung with a small percentage drop of your AAPL valuation (when AAPL took that quick hit). Charlie and I, OTOH, sold varying degrees of AAPL shares at the onset of its decline, and we avoided some of the losses.
It makes no difference what your original costs are, because whatever your AAPL shares are currently worth now is what got hit with the decline.
I am not suggesting that in the very long run it will seriously impact your portfolio... but I do know without a doubt that it was better to sell all my shares of the stock when it was closer to its highs, and then buy them back at $340/share. Heck, that's a nice thick serving of icing on the cake that I am glad to acquire when I get the chance.
By temporarily exiting the party and selling all my shares of over 40 stocks, I avoided being impacted by most of the decline... I saved a whole lot of green from going down the drain. Then I started jumping back in right as the market started to turn upwards again.
I realize this isn't typical for most investors, but everyone here knows that it's the way I do it. I make every attempt to sell high and then buy low when these types of significant opportunities present themselves. By eliminating a significant percentage of the downside, I don't have to waste as much time "getting even"... instead, as the market starts climbing again, I start making gains much sooner.
I am encouraged that you see AAPL shares getting to at least $450 in 6-7 months. That's music to my ears.
Also Len... Did you by any chance place a call in to Cramer on CNBC's "Mad Money" earlier this week? There was a guy named "Len" who called in from New Jersey, and he asked Cramer a good question about Chinese investment. I have been wondering if that guy was you.
I d'ont play the in and out game with after tax money all that often and with a stock I choose to go long on I'll ride out a small downturn. I do it with mutuals on all my pre-tax money (annuities, 401K etc) constantly though. I'm not the perfect market timer though I did go 100% back into the market right at the low point and I think I posted back then that I saw the dow running to 10K by the end of that year.
I think most folks should stick to there own investment strategy as well as their comfort zone.
While I sometimes post the advantages of my approach... at the end of the day, they are successful for me and not necessarily a good idea for others.
It's up to each person to decide what style and strategy they prefer.
We've all discussed market timing before, and the truth is that it is usually a very bad idea for the vast majority of investors.
The reason I attempt to time the market on occassion is because of this:
FEAR. I admit it.
When I see a significant decline... I get concerned that I am going to get clobbered by a market that can quickly suck away a whole lot of my portfolio's value. I get loaded with anxiety about political interference (which I hate) and events that can adversely impact the market. The truth is that I often don't enjoy the stock market, and I would honestly prefer to have a whole pile of those 10% CDs that I used to have around 1990.
That's why I tend to get overly focused on the stock market. I just have a hard time letting it all ride when there are freakin' crazy idiots out there screwing around within their countries, or manipulating the market, or messing with the economy, or world politics... all of which can have a serious negative impact on the market.
Now that all said... when the market seems stable and healthy, I do enjoy searching for bargains and I especially enjoy doing research to identify companies, whether large or small, that are about to release a product or service, or do something potentially incredible that might significantly boost their share price. I really find it rewarding to discover that a new amazing product is about to be released that will shake up the industry. That's when I love to buy that company's stock, or related company's stock.
Anyway, I am sure your personal investment strategy is great for you... as I know you are a very successful businessman, as well as good family man, and overasll a really great guy. That's why I've liked you all these years... as you already know!
Well folks, I did the unthinkable early this morning. I sold a stock that I have owned and loved for a long time now. I said "goodbye" to AMZN. It has been acting pretty horrible the past couple weeks supposedly because of expected very small profit margins. I love Amazon. I use it all the time to purchase all kinds of stuff. It was very difficult for me to part with this stock, but I thought I better not fight it any more. Maybe I got out near the lows, who knows? I might buy more AAPL with the extra $ money.
As it turns out, I decided to BUY a lot of Amazon this morning!... so it will be interesting to see how the stock performs in the long run.
I also bought quite a bit more of other stocks that were on a dip today, and also a very small handful of some stocks that were up. I intend to continue buying, unless there is another form of nasty political interference, in which case I will be cautious.
I did nothing else today. I was thinking of buying more AAPL but I did not want to buy it $3-5 higher. I should probably just buy more AAPL, go to sleep for about 4-6 months, then wake up to find AAPL trading above $400.
I'm now seriously thinking about buying a new LS this next fall. I guess I will order the 2012 model. I have a couple questions for you: Does it still come with the hard disc drive for audio recording? I love that feature. Also, how is the AWD in the snow? I am sick of messing around with snow tires. I'm getting off topic here but I think my thinking of buying a new car is a sign of better economic times.
One thing to consider is AWD will not replace snow tires in terms of being able to stop and turn. Particularly if you get an LS with the the 18" rims and summer tires. They'll be about useless in the snow, AWD or not.
I'm now seriously thinking about buying a new LS this next fall. I guess I will order the 2012 model. ... ... I'm getting off topic here but I think my thinking of buying a new car is a sign of better economic times.
I almost pulled the trigger on a new car recently, but now that gas is $4.00/gallon, I am seriously considering a Prius, and using all that money I keep saving to buy more AAPL stock.
Hmm, I've heard this somewhere before... Seriously, my AAPL options are making some good money this year. I can't wait for it to hit 400 or more. I am still waiting for F and BAC to do their things, hopefully before Jan 2013.
One thing to consider is AWD will not replace snow tires in terms of being able to stop and turn. Particularly if you get an LS with the the 18" rims and summer tires. They'll be about useless in the snow, AWD or not.
Obviously, snow tires and AWD is the best option. However, based on experience with my wife's RX450h with AWD, that thing is amazing in the snow with all season tires. My LS with all season tires and RWD is definitely useless in the snow. It is downright dangerous. I don't expect any vehicle to come to a halt by slamming on the breaks in snow or especially ice. But driving in snow and ice with the RX450h is surprisingly safe. From what little I have heard, the LS with AWD and all season tires is MUCH better than the RWD. Len has had experience with both LS's and that is why I was asking his opinion. This past winter in NJ should have been a good test.
I almost pulled the trigger on a new car recently, but now that gas is $4.00/gallon, I am seriously considering a Prius, and using all that money I keep saving to buy more AAPL stock.
My wife is considering trading in for the brand new Lexus CT200h (small SUV) that gets 43 mph. That way I can buy more AAPL as well.
Seriously, my AAPL options are making some good money this year. I can't wait for it to hit 400 or more. I am still waiting for F and BAC to do their things, hopefully before Jan 2013.
Keep the faith GS. AAPL will get there. I gave up on F a few weeks ago.
There should be little doubt that AWD is MUCH better in snow... period.
Regarding Ford... Auto sales numbers just came out and they are awesome. Additionally, Consumer Reports just gave Ford VERY favorable reviews and comments regarding its climb to high quality.
Regarding Apple... Apple will be well OVER 400 before too long, but beware of the upcoming competition and Steve Job's health issues. I will pull out of AAPL intermittently, if necessary. But, as I see the company now, I am still in long-term.
BTW, I am getting very close to buying a Prius. :surprise: I test drove one yesterday.
Hey... I just got off the phone with a Lexus sales guy I know. I called him on his cell phone to ask him about the car. He was on the golf course (typical lexus salesman, ehh?... LOL).
Anyway, he's got 'em coming in TODAY, and we're going to meet later at the showroom.
Yes, my Lexus dealer invited us to take the CT200h for a test drive sometime this month at our convenience. My wife does not like the idea of FWD, however. Somehow I have to convince her that it will still be very good in snow.
I saw the CT at the autoshow about 10 days ago. It's smaller than the Prius, and almost identical to an A3 parked 10 ft away. Much nicer interior than any car in this class. I am thinking about getting one as well.
Prius is a great choice...about half the financial proposition of the Volt. :shades:
But for me, it's either the Sonata 2.0T or the Optima twin. Best value and performance return for a mid-sizer out there AFAIC. Also might even consider the new 2011 Elantra @ 40 mpg.
No way I invest in Audi, BMW or Merc considering the latest reliability report card:
You Lexus people... which is just about every other poster here!!... I am heading out to the showroom real soon... can you tell me what are the better colors for a Lexus vehicle?
can you tell me what are the better colors for a Lexus vehicle?
I think it is the smokey granite mica exterior with a black leather interior.
Btw, Mr. TM, we are getting crushed in AAPL and every other stock today. It has turned into an ugly day. The only thing I did right so far was to sell my AMZN yesterday.
Thanks... I am told there is one of those available.
But... I am still not sure I like the looks of the vehicle. Kinda reminds me of a VW Tiguan, or maybe more of a Mazda 3.
I actually like the Prius apprearance better, and I like the 50 MPG better. Also, for the difference in the $$ between the Prius and the CT200h, I could get some awesome wheels on the Prius, dark-tint the windows, and add a TV/DVD system to the headrests.
I am told I made the first CT 200h purchase in the Western region. I don't know if it's true or not... but I do know that I now own my first Lexus. :surprise:
I have a million things to do tonight, so I may not be able to post about it until tomorrow.
BTW, what the heck happened to the market today? Everything seemed just fine this morning, and then later this afternoon, I saw what appears to have been a bloody session. What happened?
OK, this is a tricky one. One of my son's, who fancies himself as a real estate mogul, talked me into buying a foreclosure. Deal was accepted today with closing in a month. Dealing with Fannie Mae is quite an experience.
Basically, I put up the cash, he does all the rehab work, etc. It is a small house 1200 sqft. or so and was appraised on the tax roles last year at $116,000. I bought it for $55,000 and the mogul thinks he can invest $20,000. or so in sweat equity and then sell it for about $119,000. Seems doable to me.
In this business cash talks and I have been wanting to try this for a while. The little house is quite sound, with a full poured concrete basement and in a good lower middle class neighborhood. If it all works out the payoff is I get my investment back, he keeps all the profit, and maybe we get educated on deals like this so we can do it again on a little larger scale. Not to mention all the fun we can have fixing the place up.
I bought it for $55,000 and the mogul thinks he can invest $20,000. or so in sweat equity and then sell it for about $119,000. Seems doable to me.
You have hit the sweet spot in the current real estate market. My daughter does Foreclosure docs for a CA law firm. She said it is amazing how many places sell for $50k. Fix em and if need be rent them. Rents have not dropped that much. If I was not so lazy. I would be buying and fixing just as you and your son are doing.
A 1200 ft house with 2 bedrooms will still bring $1500 per month here in San Diego county. People hate apt living and will pay extra for the privacy.
TM, I CANNOT believe it! Did you really do it? Wow! I knew there was a reason the market crapped out this afternoon.
Actually, the real reason is the crude oil spiking up over $100 again and it really spooked the market big time. At least that's the excuse. Not because I am influenced by the fact that I own lots of stocks, but I honestly believe this crude oil thing is all BS. This is all manipulation. So Libya will not be able to sell crude for a while. Big deal! You watch what happens in the next few weeks or so. Other oil producing nations will make up the difference and then some at these prices. I would be willing to bet that crude will be back under $90 in about a month or two. Our economy is stronger than people give it credit. If I had a lot of free cash left I would be buying more stocks on this break. I do have a little cash from selling my beloved AMZN yesterday and I will probably use it to buy more AAPL tomorrow.
TM, I can't wait until you give us all the details on your decision and what you think of the new CT200h. What in the world changed your mind from the Prius to the Lexus? I'm sure that Len will be as shocked as I am when he sees this. I am trying to talk my wife into buying one.
If I was not so lazy. I would be buying and fixing just as you and your son are doing.
I am seeing my job as stopping by on the way home from the golf course and offering a little supervision and constructive criticism. He will definitely be doing all the heavy lifting.
Good for you and congrats. That is a very nice looking little automobile and very unusual for a Lexus. Edmund's has a very favorable review which you should check out if you haven't already. They say it drives more like a European car.
No way I invest in Audi, BMW or Merc considering the latest reliability report card:
Wow! I did not realize these brands still had major reliability concerns. I was under the impression these problems were pretty much in the past (especially for the Mercedes).
If you want bullet-proof traction on the RX450h, just get dedicated snows. Even the LS would be dynamite with snows.
Well, the RX450h is awesome on snow with all season tires, so I would consider it an overkill to use snow tires on it.
I do use snow tires on my RWD LS and they definitely make a big difference. But you still need to be very careful driving in snow. It is nowhere near as safe as driving in snow with all season tires on the RX450h. It is a real pain in the rear to change tires twice a year. I hate it. Plus, the shop where I store the tires does not have the machine that re-calibrates the tire pressure monitor system and I then have to bring it to the dealer (twice a year) for them to adjust the TPM.
I test drove the Prius yesterday morning and I decided that I was willing to give up all the spirited fun I enjoyed for all those years... Yes, I was ready to be practical. I was going to buy the Prius... and I was going to buy it TODAY.
But, strangely enough, you mentioned the CT 200h TODAY, (this Tuesday morning), right before I was about to buy the Prius. So, I called the Lexus dealership. Well, just so happens that the car was officially being released TODAY... and some of the cars were pre-sold with deposits, but the salesman told me there were a couple of cars that could be bought TODAY, but I would need to be at the dealership very soon.
My wife had just come back in the house from a weekly prayer group that she attends, and I asked her to come with me. I mentioned to her that I wanted her to see a Prius, and then a new Lexus, and compare the two, if she would be willing to do so. I promised her a nice lunch, and then she decided to join me.
We went to see the Prius first, and she was more impressed than I would have ever imagined. I expected her to HATE the Prius, but instead she saw the wisdom of the car. When we finished, I called the salesman at Lexus and told him that my wife was hungry and that we were going to get some lunch, and then head on over to see the new CT.
After lunch, we drove a couple of blocks to the Lexus dealership and I pulled in the driveway. Straight ahead of me, right in front of the showroom door were two brand new CT's... one was "Starfire Pearl", and the other was "Tungsten Pearl". A smile came across my face. Somehow, that strange-looking little Lexus CT immediately wormed its way into my heart, and I liked what I saw.
My wife and I got out of the Jaguar, and we walked over to the Tungsten Pearl CT. It had a black interior and looked soooooo much better inside than the Prius, although smaller. I noticed a few drawbacks, but overall I really liked what I saw. The salesman then noticed that we were already there and we were pouring over the car, checking out everything... so he came running out to greet us.
He said there was also one available in a new Fire Agate Pearl, and he said the Starfire Pearl one was a base model. I soon realized that the Tungsten Pearl one was loaded with damned near everything, but what appeared to be leather was some sort of synthetic leather. According to the salesman, it was the first Lexus model to offer "NuLuxe". Anyway, this one was a CT 200 h top-of-the-line "Premium" model... with all options except leather package.
Anyway, I suggested that we drive the car.
The salesman and my wife and I all went for a drive... with me in the cockpit. I was shocked as to how much better the CT drives than a Prius. It has a Sport mode and the CT handles and feels much better than the Prius. In fact, it wasn't just better than a Prius... it was better than a whole lot of cars!... and to my surprise it actually had a bit of a European feel to it. I really liked it. Although the car is kind of gutless when compared to some of the previous cars I have owned, the truth is that the CT is surprisingly spirited, agile, and fun to drive.
We got back to the dealership and I parked the CT. "I like these little cars from Mars", I said. We then asked the salesman for some private time and we sat in the car for twenty minutes talking it over.
After some discusion, I finally decided to buy it. So, we made the deal, and I drove it home. Sadly, I left my prized mint-condition Jaguar Vanden Plas at the Lexus dealership... yep, I traded it in... but I did this by my own desire and choice. After all these years, it was simply time to say goodbye to the Jag and hello to the CT 200h.
The drawbacks compared to Prius? Well, not many but the car does indeed neglect rear seat passengers by comparison. It sports a reasonably nice interior, but no cupholders or center arm rest (not even 1) for the rear passengers. I think that is that strange, (and pathetic actually) and I will be looking into getting something customized to adddress that concern as soon as either something becomes availabe, or until I get something fabricated. Regardless, it's not a deal killer.
Storage and versatility are fairly decent, but the Prius offers even better. Also, I considered that there are millions of Prii on the roads... and only a handful of CT's on the road. The little CT is modern-looking and fun-to-drive. Cockpit is enjoyable. Compared to Prius, waaay better looks, waaay better drive.
I do not want a large car, I want a small one.... Hopefully this Lexus CT 200h is the right one.
Once I log some hours behind the wheel, I'll let you know what that experience has been like.
(WT_ ! This is the thickest owner's manual I have ever seen!)
BTW, THANK YOU for mentioning this car this morning.
TM, congrats on your first Lexus, a hybrid no less. I think Lexus will do well with this car. Your report seems to have described exactly what they aiming for. I like small cars too with some capacity for carrying large objects, so I got a Vibe with 5spd from the GM fire sales last year. I love it, but I also want a little luxury which it has zipped. I will definitely consider an CT later this year when my IS350 lease ends. As with most Lexus cars, pictures often don't do justice. I saw the CT again yesterday at my dealership when picking up my IS. It was a nice black on black combo. It looks very modern when parked next to mine. It is almost identical in length. I asked for a test drive, but someone else was in front of me (it's was on loan from HQ), so my sales guy said to come back on Mar 23rd for the official launch party. Again congrats and enjoy your new toy.
Congrats on your purchase. The CT is in my eyes the most interesting non F-model Lexus in the lineup. It's actually kind of daring for the brand, a lot more interesting than the painfully dull HS and the rest of the aging lineup.
I've seen one sitting at my local dealer, in a less than pleasant kind of yellow-gold Mountain Dew color - not the best choice.
The LS with AWD is good in the snow. Much better than the RWD. We have an incline on our street and the car gets up it in snow very easily. The old RWD car had a real hard time getting up that incline. It's also great in rain. The car is wonderful and you'd love it. It no longr has the HDD function though.
With that said there are rumors that Lexus will come out with a new totally redesigned LS as early as 2012 and the next Mercedes S looks fabulous and is coming out in 2012. So I'd wait to see these next gens. I'm very tempted by the S-class now as I've been greatly pleased by the GL 450, which has been flawless and drives like a luxury car. I'm torn myself about what to do next. My GL lease expires in August. I've seriously thought about buying it out. I have a great price on this one as I leased it in the heart of the recession. I may take a new one but it bothers me that the new GL would come out a year later. I may also lease the new ML in August if my wife thinks we can downsize. But if it doesn't ride as nice as the GL than I will go GL.
Tag - You are one decisive dude in everything you do. You have all the respect in the world from me. Congratulations and best of luck in your first Lexus. That's a great looking car to me. I hope you have the same great Lexus experience that we all have had.
Your account of how this purchase took place is mind boggling! Wow, you make quick decisions. Congratulations my friend! So, you obviously love the way the CT200h drives compared to the Prius. I have one question about the optima you have on it: Does it have radar cruise and pre collision system? I know you can order it with these options but it may be under additional options instead of a package.
Btw, the only reason the CT200h came into my mind is due to the fact that I got an email (I am on their list) about it from Lexus about a week ago. I then checked it over and I was quite impressed.
Thanks Len. That's what I wanted to hear about the AWD LS.
When I was looking through the available options the other day, it mentioned "HDD Navigation" I was not sure what they meant by that. It would be awesome if they come out with a brand new LS by 2012. I could then order it this next fall perhaps.
Charlie, the "radar" type of cruise & pre-collision are options I do not have, nor want. It's early for this model, so figuring out the way Lexus is going to bundle options isn't totally clear, but I was told that the leather package makes those options available.
Mine is the "Premium" model, which has a load of cool features, and it also has the Premium Audio Package. The only additional feature I would like to have is leather... mine is equipped with something called NuLuxe. I was informed that this NuLuxe material is supposed to be more durable than leather, but I would still rather have had leather. I must admit that it is very comfortable and I suspect it will be great when the kids jump in after swimming and playing at the beach. The only reason I didn't make it a deal killer is because everything else on the car was do incredibly close enough to what I liked... and I sure didn't want to get on some damned waiting list.
I already love the car, in spite of a few small little annoyances, and I really hope it turns out to be a good experience in the long run.
I guess I should admit that I do have a little secret strategy going on here... I am hoping the wife also falls in love with the car, and then if she starts driving it all the time, I can go buy a Lotus... cause I miss that little sports car sooooo much, I have never gotten over getting rid of that particular car more than any car I have ever owned. Go figure.
I wanted to reply a "thanks" to you seperately because I wanted to offer my opinion of Consumer Reports.
I used to post passionately about the damage that Consumer Reports inflicts upon the automobile industry, IMO. While I think there is some good that comes from the idea of indicating reliability of vehicles, I have a very hard time with CR's methodology.
Much of CR's information is based upon surveys of car owner's, and NOT based upon actual and factual vehicle service and repair data... data that would come from the service and repair industry itself. In addition, as reliability increases overall with cars, the reported differences between various makes can appear to be more significant than it actually is.
CR's tests are also questionable, and their opinions are just that... opinions, not facts.
We have seen so many cases where CR gave Toyota, for example, amazing ratings, yet Toyota was drowning in issues. At the same time, many people are enjoying their Mercedes, but if they had paid attention to CR, they might have been frightened away... and that's the problem. Many people ARE frightened away from fantastic products. CR hurts business. CR causes people to make decisions that are often based upon a lack of genuine and accurate data.
It's a shame.
I think if CR's information was more often taken with a grain of salt, it would then have more merit and value. But, unfortunately, sooooo many consumers rely on CR as though it was Gospel. And the media reports CR's results in every conceivable manner... radio, TV, newspapers, magazines... and reports CR's determinations as though they all unquestionable facts.
As a result, I simply don't like CR. It reminds me of our government's reports (monthly)... that almost always end up being revised at a later date... because the real truth finally comes out. But, most people react to the first inaccurate report, and are almost oblivious to the more-accurate revised report.
I have friends with Mercedes and other European vehicles, and the vast majority of them love their vehicles, and describe them as relatively trouble-free.
I don't believe some of the hype either. I can deal with the Euros being more maintenance intensive and having a few more bugs than some others, but I think the dark days are behind them - especially for MB, who made some sketchy decisions and learned where not to cut corners.
I bought a low mileage E55 5 years ago, knowing it would have a few things go wrong, so I bought an extended warranty. The problem areas are now all remedied at little cost, and the car has been fine.
I'll be interested to see how your CT works out for you...that'd be one Lexus other than an F car that I'd actually look at.
Comments
I could have really gotten in trouble, but I definitely avoided a nasty load of losses, and now it also appears that I got back in at just the right time!
We will see how it goes from here. I don't know if we are totally out of the woods yet. I expect my next move will be to buy more equities at some point relatively soon... hopefully during a dip.
I hope it's working out well for all of you. Charlie, I think we are in a good position with AAPL.
TM
I never keft the party. Again - I think the stock is too cheap and will run to at least 450 in 6-7 months.
As a result of not leaving the party and not getting some fresh air... you got stung with a small percentage drop of your AAPL valuation (when AAPL took that quick hit). Charlie and I, OTOH, sold varying degrees of AAPL shares at the onset of its decline, and we avoided some of the losses.
It makes no difference what your original costs are, because whatever your AAPL shares are currently worth now is what got hit with the decline.
I am not suggesting that in the very long run it will seriously impact your portfolio... but I do know without a doubt that it was better to sell all my shares of the stock when it was closer to its highs, and then buy them back at $340/share. Heck, that's a nice thick serving of icing on the cake that I am glad to acquire when I get the chance.
By temporarily exiting the party and selling all my shares of over 40 stocks, I avoided being impacted by most of the decline... I saved a whole lot of green from going down the drain. Then I started jumping back in right as the market started to turn upwards again.
I realize this isn't typical for most investors, but everyone here knows that it's the way I do it. I make every attempt to sell high and then buy low when these types of significant opportunities present themselves. By eliminating a significant percentage of the downside, I don't have to waste as much time "getting even"... instead, as the market starts climbing again, I start making gains much sooner.
I am encouraged that you see AAPL shares getting to at least $450 in 6-7 months. That's music to my ears.
Also Len...
Did you by any chance place a call in to Cramer on CNBC's "Mad Money" earlier this week? There was a guy named "Len" who called in from New Jersey, and he asked Cramer a good question about Chinese investment. I have been wondering if that guy was you.
TM
I d'ont play the in and out game with after tax money all that often and with a stock I choose to go long on I'll ride out a small downturn. I do it with mutuals on all my pre-tax money (annuities, 401K etc) constantly though. I'm not the perfect market timer though I did go 100% back into the market right at the low point and I think I posted back then that I saw the dow running to 10K by the end of that year.
While I sometimes post the advantages of my approach... at the end of the day, they are successful for me and not necessarily a good idea for others.
It's up to each person to decide what style and strategy they prefer.
We've all discussed market timing before, and the truth is that it is usually a very bad idea for the vast majority of investors.
The reason I attempt to time the market on occassion is because of this:
FEAR. I admit it.
When I see a significant decline... I get concerned that I am going to get clobbered by a market that can quickly suck away a whole lot of my portfolio's value. I get loaded with anxiety about political interference (which I hate) and events that can adversely impact the market. The truth is that I often don't enjoy the stock market, and I would honestly prefer to have a whole pile of those 10% CDs that I used to have around 1990.
That's why I tend to get overly focused on the stock market. I just have a hard time letting it all ride when there are freakin' crazy idiots out there screwing around within their countries, or manipulating the market, or messing with the economy, or world politics... all of which can have a serious negative impact on the market.
Now that all said... when the market seems stable and healthy, I do enjoy searching for bargains and I especially enjoy doing research to identify companies, whether large or small, that are about to release a product or service, or do something potentially incredible that might significantly boost their share price. I really find it rewarding to discover that a new amazing product is about to be released that will shake up the industry. That's when I love to buy that company's stock, or related company's stock.
Anyway, I am sure your personal investment strategy is great for you... as I know you are a very successful businessman, as well as good family man, and overasll a really great guy. That's why I've liked you all these years... as you already know!
TM
As it turns out, I decided to BUY a lot of Amazon this morning!... so it will be interesting to see how the stock performs in the long run.
I also bought quite a bit more of other stocks that were on a dip today, and also a very small handful of some stocks that were up. I intend to continue buying, unless there is another form of nasty political interference, in which case I will be cautious.
Good luck with that extra $$. (more AAPL?)
TM
I did nothing else today. I was thinking of buying more AAPL but I did not want to buy it $3-5 higher. I should probably just buy more AAPL, go to sleep for about 4-6 months, then wake up to find AAPL trading above $400.
I'm now seriously thinking about buying a new LS this next fall. I guess I will order the 2012 model. I have a couple questions for you: Does it still come with the hard disc drive for audio recording? I love that feature. Also, how is the AWD in the snow? I am sick of messing around with snow tires. I'm getting off topic here but I think my thinking of buying a new car is a sign of better economic times.
One thing to consider is AWD will not replace snow tires in terms of being able to stop and turn. Particularly if you get an LS with the the 18" rims and summer tires. They'll be about useless in the snow, AWD or not.
I almost pulled the trigger on a new car recently, but now that gas is $4.00/gallon, I am seriously considering a Prius, and using all that money I keep saving to buy more AAPL stock.
TM
Seriously, my AAPL options are making some good money this year. I can't wait for it to hit 400 or more. I am still waiting for F and BAC to do their things, hopefully before Jan 2013.
Obviously, snow tires and AWD is the best option. However, based on experience with my wife's RX450h with AWD, that thing is amazing in the snow with all season tires. My LS with all season tires and RWD is definitely useless in the snow. It is downright dangerous. I don't expect any vehicle to come to a halt by slamming on the breaks in snow or especially ice. But driving in snow and ice with the RX450h is surprisingly safe. From what little I have heard, the LS with AWD and all season tires is MUCH better than the RWD. Len has had experience with both LS's and that is why I was asking his opinion. This past winter in NJ should have been a good test.
My wife is considering trading in for the brand new Lexus CT200h (small SUV) that gets 43 mph. That way I can buy more AAPL as well.
Keep the faith GS. AAPL will get there. I gave up on F a few weeks ago.
Regarding Ford... Auto sales numbers just came out and they are awesome. Additionally, Consumer Reports just gave Ford VERY favorable reviews and comments regarding its climb to high quality.
Regarding Apple... Apple will be well OVER 400 before too long, but beware of the upcoming competition and Steve Job's health issues. I will pull out of AAPL intermittently, if necessary. But, as I see the company now, I am still in long-term.
BTW, I am getting very close to buying a Prius. :surprise: I test drove one yesterday.
TM
I'm not sure I like the looks of it.
I'll call the Lexus dealer and see when it will be in stock and I will test drive it.
TM
No question about that. I was just commenting on the possibility of the LS being equipped with summer tires.
Hey... I just got off the phone with a Lexus sales guy I know. I called him on his cell phone to ask him about the car. He was on the golf course (typical lexus salesman, ehh?... LOL).
Anyway, he's got 'em coming in TODAY, and we're going to meet later at the showroom.
TM
But for me, it's either the Sonata 2.0T or the Optima twin. Best value and performance return for a mid-sizer out there AFAIC. Also might even consider the new 2011 Elantra @ 40 mpg.
No way I invest in Audi, BMW or Merc considering the latest reliability report card:
Regards,
OW
Even the LS would be dynamite with snows.
Regards,
OW
I'll keep you all posted on what I discover at the showroom later today.
If I actually purchase a Lexus... it will definitely be an historic moment.
TM
TM
If I actually purchase a Lexus... it will definitely be an historic moment.
Oh my Lord! If you actually do buy a Lexus, maybe December 21, 2012 will take place in the next few days instead.
I think it is the smokey granite mica exterior with a black leather interior.
Btw, Mr. TM, we are getting crushed in AAPL and every other stock today. It has turned into an ugly day. The only thing I did right so far was to sell my AMZN yesterday.
But... I am still not sure I like the looks of the vehicle. Kinda reminds me of a VW Tiguan, or maybe more of a Mazda 3.
I actually like the Prius apprearance better, and I like the 50 MPG better. Also, for the difference in the $$ between the Prius and the CT200h, I could get some awesome wheels on the Prius, dark-tint the windows, and add a TV/DVD system to the headrests.
Thanks again. I am now heading out there.
TM
Funny what all those fuel pumps can do to a man's perspective !!
Good luck and keep us posted.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
I am told I made the first CT 200h purchase in the Western region. I don't know if it's true or not... but I do know that I now own my first Lexus. :surprise:
I have a million things to do tonight, so I may not be able to post about it until tomorrow.
BTW, what the heck happened to the market today? Everything seemed just fine this morning, and then later this afternoon, I saw what appears to have been a bloody session. What happened?
TM
Basically, I put up the cash, he does all the rehab work, etc. It is a small house 1200 sqft. or so and was appraised on the tax roles last year at $116,000. I bought it for $55,000 and the mogul thinks he can invest $20,000. or so in sweat equity and then sell it for about $119,000. Seems doable to me.
In this business cash talks and I have been wanting to try this for a while. The little house is quite sound, with a full poured concrete basement and in a good lower middle class neighborhood. If it all works out the payoff is I get my investment back, he keeps all the profit, and maybe we get educated on deals like this so we can do it again on a little larger scale. Not to mention all the fun we can have fixing the place up.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
You have hit the sweet spot in the current real estate market. My daughter does Foreclosure docs for a CA law firm. She said it is amazing how many places sell for $50k. Fix em and if need be rent them. Rents have not dropped that much. If I was not so lazy. I would be buying and fixing just as you and your son are doing.
A 1200 ft house with 2 bedrooms will still bring $1500 per month here in San Diego county. People hate apt living and will pay extra for the privacy.
Actually, the real reason is the crude oil spiking up over $100 again and it really spooked the market big time. At least that's the excuse. Not because I am influenced by the fact that I own lots of stocks, but I honestly believe this crude oil thing is all BS. This is all manipulation. So Libya will not be able to sell crude for a while. Big deal! You watch what happens in the next few weeks or so. Other oil producing nations will make up the difference and then some at these prices. I would be willing to bet that crude will be back under $90 in about a month or two. Our economy is stronger than people give it credit. If I had a lot of free cash left I would be buying more stocks on this break. I do have a little cash from selling my beloved AMZN yesterday and I will probably use it to buy more AAPL tomorrow.
TM, I can't wait until you give us all the details on your decision and what you think of the new CT200h. What in the world changed your mind from the Prius to the Lexus? I'm sure that Len will be as shocked as I am when he sees this. I am trying to talk my wife into buying one.
I am seeing my job as stopping by on the way home from the golf course and offering a little supervision and constructive criticism. He will definitely be doing all the heavy lifting.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Will this be your daily driver?
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Wow! I did not realize these brands still had major reliability concerns. I was under the impression these problems were pretty much in the past (especially for the Mercedes).
Even the LS would be dynamite with snows.
Well, the RX450h is awesome on snow with all season tires, so I would consider it an overkill to use snow tires on it.
I do use snow tires on my RWD LS and they definitely make a big difference. But you still need to be very careful driving in snow. It is nowhere near as safe as driving in snow with all season tires on the RX450h. It is a real pain in the rear to change tires twice a year. I hate it. Plus, the shop where I store the tires does not have the machine that re-calibrates the tire pressure monitor system and I then have to bring it to the dealer (twice a year) for them to adjust the TPM.
I test drove the Prius yesterday morning and I decided that I was willing to give up all the spirited fun I enjoyed for all those years... Yes, I was ready to be practical. I was going to buy the Prius... and I was going to buy it TODAY.
But, strangely enough, you mentioned the CT 200h TODAY, (this Tuesday morning), right before I was about to buy the Prius. So, I called the Lexus dealership. Well, just so happens that the car was officially being released TODAY... and some of the cars were pre-sold with deposits, but the salesman told me there were a couple of cars that could be bought TODAY, but I would need to be at the dealership very soon.
My wife had just come back in the house from a weekly prayer group that she attends, and I asked her to come with me. I mentioned to her that I wanted her to see a Prius, and then a new Lexus, and compare the two, if she would be willing to do so. I promised her a nice lunch, and then she decided to join me.
We went to see the Prius first, and she was more impressed than I would have ever imagined. I expected her to HATE the Prius, but instead she saw the wisdom of the car. When we finished, I called the salesman at Lexus and told him that my wife was hungry and that we were going to get some lunch, and then head on over to see the new CT.
After lunch, we drove a couple of blocks to the Lexus dealership and I pulled in the driveway. Straight ahead of me, right in front of the showroom door were two brand new CT's... one was "Starfire Pearl", and the other was "Tungsten Pearl". A smile came across my face. Somehow, that strange-looking little Lexus CT immediately wormed its way into my heart, and I liked what I saw.
My wife and I got out of the Jaguar, and we walked over to the Tungsten Pearl CT. It had a black interior and looked soooooo much better inside than the Prius, although smaller. I noticed a few drawbacks, but overall I really liked what I saw. The salesman then noticed that we were already there and we were pouring over the car, checking out everything... so he came running out to greet us.
He said there was also one available in a new Fire Agate Pearl, and he said the Starfire Pearl one was a base model. I soon realized that the Tungsten Pearl one was loaded with damned near everything, but what appeared to be leather was some sort of synthetic leather. According to the salesman, it was the first Lexus model to offer "NuLuxe". Anyway, this one was a CT 200 h top-of-the-line "Premium" model... with all options except leather package.
Anyway, I suggested that we drive the car.
The salesman and my wife and I all went for a drive... with me in the cockpit. I was shocked as to how much better the CT drives than a Prius. It has a Sport mode and the CT handles and feels much better than the Prius. In fact, it wasn't just better than a Prius... it was better than a whole lot of cars!... and to my surprise it actually had a bit of a European feel to it. I really liked it. Although the car is kind of gutless when compared to some of the previous cars I have owned, the truth is that the CT is surprisingly spirited, agile, and fun to drive.
We got back to the dealership and I parked the CT. "I like these little cars from Mars", I said. We then asked the salesman for some private time and we sat in the car for twenty minutes talking it over.
After some discusion, I finally decided to buy it. So, we made the deal, and I drove it home. Sadly, I left my prized mint-condition Jaguar Vanden Plas at the Lexus dealership... yep, I traded it in... but I did this by my own desire and choice. After all these years, it was simply time to say goodbye to the Jag and hello to the CT 200h.
The drawbacks compared to Prius? Well, not many but the car does indeed neglect rear seat passengers by comparison. It sports a reasonably nice interior, but no cupholders or center arm rest (not even 1) for the rear passengers. I think that is that strange, (and pathetic actually) and I will be looking into getting something customized to adddress that concern as soon as either something becomes availabe, or until I get something fabricated. Regardless, it's not a deal killer.
Storage and versatility are fairly decent, but the Prius offers even better. Also, I considered that there are millions of Prii on the roads... and only a handful of CT's on the road. The little CT is modern-looking and fun-to-drive. Cockpit is enjoyable. Compared to Prius, waaay better looks, waaay better drive.
I do not want a large car, I want a small one.... Hopefully this Lexus CT 200h is the right one.
Once I log some hours behind the wheel, I'll let you know what that experience has been like.
(WT_ ! This is the thickest owner's manual I have ever seen!)
BTW, THANK YOU for mentioning this car this morning.
TM
As with most Lexus cars, pictures often don't do justice. I saw the CT again yesterday at my dealership when picking up my IS. It was a nice black on black combo. It looks very modern when parked next to mine. It is almost identical in length. I asked for a test drive, but someone else was in front of me (it's was on loan from HQ), so my sales guy said to come back on Mar 23rd for the official launch party.
Again congrats and enjoy your new toy.
I've seen one sitting at my local dealer, in a less than pleasant kind of yellow-gold Mountain Dew color - not the best choice.
I read a couple MB owner forums and haven't seen anything especially problematic on new models.
The LS with AWD is good in the snow. Much better than the RWD. We have an incline on our street and the car gets up it in snow very easily. The old RWD car had a real hard time getting up that incline. It's also great in rain. The car is wonderful and you'd love it. It no longr has the HDD function though.
With that said there are rumors that Lexus will come out with a new totally redesigned LS as early as 2012 and the next Mercedes S looks fabulous and is coming out in 2012. So I'd wait to see these next gens. I'm very tempted by the S-class now as I've been greatly pleased by the GL 450, which has been flawless and drives like a luxury car. I'm torn myself about what to do next. My GL lease expires in August. I've seriously thought about buying it out. I have a great price on this one as I leased it in the heart of the recession. I may take a new one but it bothers me that the new GL would come out a year later. I may also lease the new ML in August if my wife thinks we can downsize. But if it doesn't ride as nice as the GL than I will go GL.
Tag - You are one decisive dude in everything you do. You have all the respect in the world from me. Congratulations and best of luck in your first Lexus. That's a great looking car to me. I hope you have the same great Lexus experience that we all have had.
Your account of how this purchase took place is mind boggling! Wow, you make quick decisions. Congratulations my friend! So, you obviously love the way the CT200h drives compared to the Prius. I have one question about the optima you have on it: Does it have radar cruise and pre collision system? I know you can order it with these options but it may be under additional options instead of a package.
Btw, the only reason the CT200h came into my mind is due to the fact that I got an email (I am on their list) about it from Lexus about a week ago. I then checked it over and I was quite impressed.
When I was looking through the available options the other day, it mentioned "HDD Navigation" I was not sure what they meant by that. It would be awesome if they come out with a brand new LS by 2012. I could then order it this next fall perhaps.
Charlie, the "radar" type of cruise & pre-collision are options I do not have, nor want. It's early for this model, so figuring out the way Lexus is going to bundle options isn't totally clear, but I was told that the leather package makes those options available.
Mine is the "Premium" model, which has a load of cool features, and it also has the Premium Audio Package. The only additional feature I would like to have is leather... mine is equipped with something called NuLuxe. I was informed that this NuLuxe material is supposed to be more durable than leather, but I would still rather have had leather. I must admit that it is very comfortable and I suspect it will be great when the kids jump in after swimming and playing at the beach. The only reason I didn't make it a deal killer is because everything else on the car was do incredibly close enough to what I liked... and I sure didn't want to get on some damned waiting list.
I already love the car, in spite of a few small little annoyances, and I really hope it turns out to be a good experience in the long run.
I guess I should admit that I do have a little secret strategy going on here... I am hoping the wife also falls in love with the car, and then if she starts driving it all the time, I can go buy a Lotus... cause I miss that little sports car sooooo much, I have never gotten over getting rid of that particular car more than any car I have ever owned. Go figure.
So... thanks again!!
TM
I wanted to reply a "thanks" to you seperately because I wanted to offer my opinion of Consumer Reports.
I used to post passionately about the damage that Consumer Reports inflicts upon the automobile industry, IMO. While I think there is some good that comes from the idea of indicating reliability of vehicles, I have a very hard time with CR's methodology.
Much of CR's information is based upon surveys of car owner's, and NOT based upon actual and factual vehicle service and repair data... data that would come from the service and repair industry itself. In addition, as reliability increases overall with cars, the reported differences between various makes can appear to be more significant than it actually is.
CR's tests are also questionable, and their opinions are just that... opinions, not facts.
We have seen so many cases where CR gave Toyota, for example, amazing ratings, yet Toyota was drowning in issues. At the same time, many people are enjoying their Mercedes, but if they had paid attention to CR, they might have been frightened away... and that's the problem. Many people ARE frightened away from fantastic products. CR hurts business. CR causes people to make decisions that are often based upon a lack of genuine and accurate data.
It's a shame.
I think if CR's information was more often taken with a grain of salt, it would then have more merit and value. But, unfortunately, sooooo many consumers rely on CR as though it was Gospel. And the media reports CR's results in every conceivable manner... radio, TV, newspapers, magazines... and reports CR's determinations as though they all unquestionable facts.
As a result, I simply don't like CR. It reminds me of our government's reports (monthly)... that almost always end up being revised at a later date... because the real truth finally comes out. But, most people react to the first inaccurate report, and are almost oblivious to the more-accurate revised report.
I have friends with Mercedes and other European vehicles, and the vast majority of them love their vehicles, and describe them as relatively trouble-free.
TM
I bought a low mileage E55 5 years ago, knowing it would have a few things go wrong, so I bought an extended warranty. The problem areas are now all remedied at little cost, and the car has been fine.
I'll be interested to see how your CT works out for you...that'd be one Lexus other than an F car that I'd actually look at.
I am interested to see how it works out as well.
I'll be glad to keep everyone updated with my experience with the CT.
TM