I am looking at what the EPA will require safety wise to make an EV equal to current car crash standards.
Does the EPA really get involved in crash standards? Maybe they do but that seems outside their area of concern. Regardless, if the Smart ForTwo can achieve good crash test scores then I don't see this as an insurmountable obstacle. As I've stated numerous times, EVs biggest challenge in the market will be battery costs.
DO I think that CA panders to fringe wacko elements? YES, YES, YES.
Maybe so but CA does adhere to the democratic process. So it's possible these wackos aren't as "fringe" as you believe. I look at some of the strongly held beliefs in the Bible Belt. I personally consider a lot of these people to be wackos but I also realize that their beliefs typify the region. That being the case I choose not to live there. I'm curious why, as a retiree, you choose to live in CA when you don't share a lot of the common sentiment of other CA residents and their legislators. Have you ever considered Baja? Very little environmental protection in Mexico.
if the Smart ForTwo can achieve good crash test scores
Have you seen the crash videos for the Smart. They are a tough little car. I do suppose it will be the NHTSA that requires the tests on the EVs. GM has the deep pockets required to let them crash a few. A small startup like Tesla is close to broke and have not delivered any of the promised cars. Battery cost will be the biggest obstacle facing EVs for mainstream.
I'm curious why, as a retiree, you choose to live in CA when you don't share a lot of the common sentiment of other CA residents and their legislators. Have you ever considered Baja? Very little environmental protection in Mexico.
First where I live in San Diego County it is 55% Republican. The rural areas of CA are not the same as LA and SF. It is a different World. And the weather is great. Baja is another story. I leased a place in Baja in 1995. It was very nice down there. Very inexpensive to live compared to San Diego which was only 15 miles away. Then the Feds diverted the drug trade from Florida up through Mexico. The crime is now horrendous. Most of my friends that used to go down there are afraid to anymore. Lots of kidnappings and murders. We have made Mexico a place that was just corrupt into a crime pit with our addiction to drugs. There was always pot. Now it is the main route for cocaine from Columbia.That is sad as I do not feel safe going down for lobster that I love.
to tpe, When a car is cruising down the highway, the engine must overcome air friction, and engine/drive train friction. A smaller car has a smaller cross section and should have less air friction than a larger car with the same aerodynamic shape.
A smaller, lighter car can use a smaller engine, motor, battery, fuel cell to get the same acceleration as a larger car. These smaller components have fewer friction losses.
In Traffic Safety, Dr. Leonard Evans shows that a larger and lighter car is the best choice for overall safety. My car is small and gets larger where it counts when on the highway. You can build a car out of carbon fiber and it can be large and light. It will probably be expensive.
I'd like to see people pay the real cost of a gallon of gas here in the States and see what form of alternative cleaner energy would come along.
I have to assume that the people in the EU are as innovative as we are. They have had very high fuel prices for decades and have not come up with anything but using diesel fuel. They do not even have the penetration of hybrids we have. Though I would much rather have a diesel vehicle than a hybrid. What makes you think we will come up with some miracle alternative? Everyone in the World has to live within the parameters of physics. To me the only bright light in the future may be biodiesel from algae. Hydrogen and EVs are still way in the future as replacements. Hydrogen still uses fossil fuel to manufacture. I seriously doubt I will see fuel cells on a practical scale in my lifetime. And EVs are not looking great in the next 10 years.
Weather in San Diego is great. I don't think you can find a milder year round climate. Probably around 65 degrees in winter, 78 degrees in summer. I miss it.
That is sad as I do not feel safe going down for lobster that I love.
When I lived In San Diego I used to make a trip to the Rosarito Beach Hotel several times a year just for their lobster dinner. It was awesome. Ever been there?
In ND for the last two years they purchased 4 cylinder sedans instead of 6 cylinders. In 2007 they bought the 2.2L Malibu. In 2008 they bought the 2.4L Dodge Avenger. They also purchased about about 10 hybrids (sedans and compact SUVs). I think they purchase about 180 sedans a year. http://www.nd.gov/spo/agency/contracts/motor-vehicle-specs/
They are still buying Police cars with high performance V8s, however. Ya never know when one of those farmers decides to make a break for it in his Massey-Ferguson Combine. I hear the MF 6445 and MF 6455 have a top speed of 40km/hr. That is a neck snapping 24 mph for you non-metric folks.
Some agencies are changing a bit.
The Feds on the other hand, I saw a bunch of military types take a F250 to training 100 miles away. A sedan would have worked just fine. :mad:
mm, your reasoning has some logical though. May I drop a few thoughts to compound it a little
1) China is not really paying the full spot market price for oil. They struck very close relation ship with human right-loving countries such as Iran, Sudan, Venezuela and others, providing them with a virtual seat at the UNO security council and effectively blocking any serious initiative against those countries. China also offer credit insurance services to those countries and of course provide the local tyran with plenty of project engineering and China made goods. In return for cheaper / steady oil, those pariah countries are being protected by a powerful ally who will never meddle into their "internal" politics.
2) the car is a status symbol. riding a bicycle in China is regarded as being poor and people will do ANYTHING to buy a car to display their wealth, even at the expense of their own home. I saw a $160.000 screaming new MBW 740i (import tax is 100% for cars) parked below a $40.000 apartment (i know it was the owner's) . I hear countless stories of people buying a nice car but living in the attics or even worse. Bottom line : Chinese people will buy cars, because they prefer be gridlocked in a car in a 3 mph/5 mpg traffic jam in Beijing than being on a peasant's bike at 10 mph/ infinite mpg. Gas is too cheap
3) Priuses in China are a big disappointment with a few thousands units sold only. for the same price, people have "more" car elsewhere. Prius is not good for showing off. Gas is still too cheap
4) Motorcycles which generally offer better mpg are forbidden in many cities and on all highways. Electric scooters are pretty much restricted too. 2-wheels are seen as a substitute for bikes and carry the same negative meaning. Gas not expensive enough for such stupid law to be repelled.
5) Yes India is coming and many "smaller" countries are. They all want wheels and they will have some. Gas is still cheap
in sum up. I predict oil prices to simply double before 2011. And strongly believe my prediction is conservative.
brightest car manufacturer's out there and they have an electric car that I am currently interested in called the i-MIEV. As it's currently built with the batteries it's built with right now, it has a range of "only" 100 miles. That's in it's "economy" mode. To me, that is not currently acceptable. But it's so close that I perk up my ears to anything new in the way of new Mitsubishi news, electric or ICE automobile. They are working with Japanese utilities to properly "power" the grid system for this car. The Japanese people are gonna dig this vehicle.
I want off of this futures-trader ghastly bandwagon, eventually anyway. Might take a while to get there. And no, I don't blame Mitsubishi for the 0-0-0 fiasco. That's nuts. They were trying to sell cars. Isn't that what all carmakers are trying to do? That a bunch of young dorks grabbed the idea and then were dishonest as hell is certainly not Mitsubishi's fault. Mitsubishi's engines are strong and the body designs of the '08 Lancer and the '07+ Outlander are classic. I have grown to have nothing but respect for Mitsubishi, and the fact that the i-MIEV is budding success only lends more creedence to their engineering prowess. I mean, who is winning all of the Dakar races? Mitsubishi is, my friends.
Think about it. Just what an intelligent carmaker should do with the lessons learned in racing, Mitsubishi does. They build that knowledge in to their new crop of cars. Another route to go is retro-electrically-fitting my '08 Lancer GTS with an all-electric powertrain. :shades:
That was my hang out in Rosarito. I set up the Karaoke with a friend. Last I heard he was still living in one of the cottages they have. The house I leased was in San Antonio del Mar right along the toll road before you get to Rosarito. I loved the food down there and it was very relaxing. I could have bought the house I was leasing. I probably should have done that. Nothing in there for less than $200k now. Still shaky for a gringo owning ocean front in Mexico.
"China is not really paying the full spot market price for oil. They struck very close relation ship with human right-loving countries such as Iran, Sudan, Venezuela and others, providing them with a virtual seat at the UNO security council and effectively blocking any serious initiative against those countries. China also offer credit insurance services to those countries and of course provide the local tyran with plenty of project engineering and China made goods. In return for cheaper / steady oil, those pariah countries are being protected by a powerful ally who will never meddle into their "internal" politics. "
You make an excellent point here. The US is not the only game in town, far from it. I read another interesting anlysis on why prices are spiraling up - China, and its price protection, are part of it. These low, artificial prices keep the market from working, so consumption increases without control of prices. The effect is magified in oil producing contries with subsidized prices. World prices rise, their prices are fixed, but they have much more money to spend, so consumption skyrockets. That's one reason prices are now unstable.
In return for cheaper / steady oil, those pariah countries are being protected by a powerful ally who will never meddle into their "internal" politics.
That is very similar to what we did with Saudi Arabia after WW2. FDR signed that agreement to protect the Kingdom. In return the oil would be sold on the open market in USD. Problem is our left wing likes to meddle in the affairs of other countries when it is politically advantageous. Mainly to make the opposition look bad.
"I have to assume that the people in the EU are as innovative as we are"
I potentially true but practically impaired. Regretfully most budgets of the Divided States of Europe are clogged by welfare and bureaucracy which sucks out any remaining budget for R&D, high education and meaningful investment.
I would have wished that the high amount of Fuel tax in France would be invested in large Alternative Energy /Mobility projects but it just struggles to pay for the debt's interests (2nd largest single expense in budget after MoEd)
Hopefully we have some high speed trains that save the face, but financing those is always a decade-old struggle.
I've been watching prices for used Honda Insights on eBay rise by about 20% recently. No surprise there- my lifetime average after 120k miles is 63.9 MPG.
Shame they don't make 'em anymore, Honda never made a penny on them. They just wanted to show that high MPG could be done.
The upcoming Honda CRZ should fill the Insight's place in the market. I think it will be a little bigger, maybe even have four seats. Honda might make some money on this one.
In ND for the last two years they purchased 4 cylinder sedans instead of 6 cylinders. In 2007 they bought the 2.2L Malibu. In 2008 they bought the 2.4L Dodge Avenger. They also purchased about about 10 hybrids (sedans and compact SUVs). I think they purchase about 180 sedans a year.
There have actually been lower power/higher economy police cars out for ages, now. The ones with the powerful V-8's are generally called "Interceptor Class", I think, while the more mundane versions are called "Patrol Class" or "Pursuit Class", can't remember which, now.
Back in the 80's, Chrysler actually offered a police package on the Aries/Reliant K-car! And I think the Slant Six was available with a police package since its inception back in 1960. Basically, all a patrol class copcar has to do is be rugged and durable, but not fast. Essentially a taxi, just wearing different colors and signage.
In the 90's, my county started using Luminas and Grand Prixes with the 3.1 V-6, and they got a run of the "whale" Caprices...but with the tiny 200 hp 4.3 LT1 V-8, and not the 260 hp 350 LT that the Impala SS used.
There was also a Taurus police package in the 90's, and Chrysler experimented around with a Dynasty police package, but never got beyond a few prototypes. They did do a copcar version of the 1998-2004 Intrepid, and it was quite capable...until you had to stop too quickly, that is. The brakes had a tendency to burst into flames! :surprise:
Nowadays, they do have the Charger/Magnum police package. Most of them actually have the 3.5 V-6, which puts it about on par with the Impala or Crown Vic. I don't think too many of them actually get the Hemi.
I guess the problem all along is that, while these more economical/less powerful packages were available, the cops just didn't want them. And back when gas was cheap, who could blame them?
I had an ex-police car for a few years, a 1989 Plymouth Gran Fury. It was the Interceptor Class. 318-4bbl, which was not available in a civilian model. Quicker rear end. Top speed of around 125 mph, which would have been laughable 20 years before, and is no great shakes today, but competent for the time. It had originally been owned by the city of Richmond, VA, and was a sheriff's car. Therefore, it was optioned up really well with power windows/locks, cloth seats, nice carpeting, tilt wheel, and probably one of the better stereo systems you could get in a Chrysler that year. It was used mainly to transport prisoners, serve summonses, drive to court, and do doughnut runs. Our tax dollars at work, eh? :shades:
"the cops just didn't want them. And back when gas was cheap, who could blame them?"
True, then was then, now is now.....I've read maybe a million or so headlines were local budgets are in meltdown because of the $4 a gallon gasoline & diesel. I think we will see a slow shift to more economical cruisers as time goes on. But as soon as a re-run of Miami Vice comes on the cops are going to say: "I want one of those." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miami_Vice#Cars
"and do doughnut runs. "
I don't see the cops at our local Donut Hole! The guy that runs the water plant is always there before he starts work, however. :confuse:
True, then was then, now is now.....I've read maybe a million or so headlines were local budgets are in meltdown because of the $4 a gallon gasoline & diesel. I think we will see a slow shift to more economical cruisers as time goes on.
Yeah, in the past I guess they could always just raise taxes, find some general fund to dip into, or whatever if they ran over budget. But now with property values falling, people getting foreclosed on (which usually means they're defaulting on property tax payments too), etc, I guess they're really getting squeezed.
And if the general public really is starting to drive slower as a result of higher gas prices, well there go the ticket quotas! :P
What will you do when gas price rises above $4 a gallon?
I test drove the 09 Corolla and Matrix yesterday. They would be OK around town but not so good on a road trip. Even if we go to $6 a gallon I would buy a 4 cyl. Camry or Fusion.
The salesman did say that the Tundras are moving slow and the Sequoias are making good boat anchors. He also said that people are coming in to dump the big SUVs to get smaller cars.
We did see a Prius in the lot with a sold sign. All the Prius cars are sold before they get to the dealer. A recent headline said Toyota has sold 1 million. Not bad for a car a lot of people dismissed as a fad.
I also want to congratulate Connecticut for going over $4 a gallon on RUG. Looks like half a dozen more states are closing in on the magic Four Oh!
And, E85 dropped 17 cents yesterday! That is AAA adjusted price. E85 ($4.15) now is cheaper than PUG ($4.17) even using the adjusted price. Since E85 has plenty of octane (105) it is the cheaper fuel for cars that need high octane. There is a paradigm shift for sure. http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/index.asp
I saw a $160.000 screaming new MBW 740i (import tax is 100% for cars) parked below a $40.000 apartment (i know it was the owner's) . I hear countless stories of people buying a nice car but living in the attics or even worse.i>
Wow, are these Chinese people from Lower Northeast Philly by any chance? I see Lexi, Bimmers, and Benzes parked in front of run-down row homes and in the parking lots of shabby apartment complexes in marginal neighborhoods all the time! Do they buy them at the buy-here-pay-here lots in Shanghai?
I was thinking the same thing, you see a lot of high end cars in apartment complexes and low end housing. The more upscale housing has more mundane cars.
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
"in sum up. I predict oil prices to simply double before 2011. And strongly believe my prediction is conservative."
Are you sure? If I understand your prediction you are saying the oil will be $250 a barrel and gasoline will be about $7.50 here in the U.S. in 2011.
I think your estimate is a bit pessimistic for several reasons.
1) China is already paying $80 some billion to subsidize their fuel. Do you really think they can keep that up or go to $160 plus billion in 2011? I doubt it. 2) Other countries such as Indonesia, India and Mexico that subsidize are close to the breaking point. 3) Here in the U.S. with the average household income being $50k or so, people cannot afford a doubling of gasoline costs. Not sure of the exact numbers, however ,the average person is likely paying $2,500 to $3,000 for gasoline a year. There is no way they can absorb an increase to $5,000 or more. Look at the increase in food prices. Does anyone out there think the average person can handle both the food increase and the gasoline increase. I don't think so. 4) Local government budgets are taking a big hit because of the higher diesel and gasoline prices. Can they or will they raise taxes? In our city they had to resort to two week bids on things like asphalt. No contractor would commit to longer price guaranties because of the rising prices. 5) Even countries like Japan are having inflation troubles which will limit demand growth. When their Nuke plant went down they started importing a lot of diesel to move around electrons. That will have an impact. 6) In sum the price increases already are altering demand here in the states. A quick look on the internet and you will see that the demand growth worldwide will start to slow if it hasn't already started to level off. http://energyshortage.org/ http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080516.wfivethings0516/BNS- - tory/Business/home
I test drove the 09 Corolla and Matrix yesterday. They would be OK around town but not so good on a road trip. Even if we go to $6 a gallon I would buy a 4 cyl. Camry or Fusion.
I agree, as I'd feel more comfortable in an economical midsized car than I would a compact. But if you're already driving an Avalon, I don't think switching to a 4-cyl Camry or especially a Fusion would really make much difference in your fuel bill.
Using those watered-down 2008 numbers, here's how the cars stack up:
If you're in the mood for a new car, and don't want to spend a lot of money, I guess a Camry or Fusion wouldn't be bad. But if your current ride is still reliable, don't get out of it just because you want to save a few bucks in fuel.
Heck, I'm impressed at how economical the current Avalon is, considering the size and power of it. And even in the base trim level, it seems really well equipped for the price.
Back in the early 1960s, the Philadelphia Police tried using Ford Falcons as patrol cars, but they weren't durable enough to withstand the rigors of police duty.
Well, there is always something faster than a Ferrari - a two-way radio. The cop can just radio to the other cop up the road to catch the speeder. I wonder if cops will start using more motorcycles. Motorcycles are usually faster and more maneuverable than any car.
I'm not buying into the Oil is on a steady rise. This has happened all through the last hundred years. Remember the OIL men want folks to think that the prices are going up. Makes it an easier sell when they do. I don't think we will ever see $10 oil as in 1998. I do think that $40 oil is likely within the next 5 years. There are many fields in many countries just now being looked at and developed. They will want to sell their oil and it looks like right now the supply is more that equal the demand. Just think about the untapped oil in Brazil, Columbia and Greenland. Not to mention North Dakota and the coast of Florida. Of course it will be the Cubans that produce the oil off of Key West. That should make them a major player in the next 10 years.
"But if you're already driving an Avalon, I don't think switching to a 4-cyl Camry or especially a Fusion would really make much difference in your fuel bill."
True, I would likely save $5 a month.
"Using those watered-down 2008 numbers, here's how the cars stack up:
I keep a close watch on the numbers too. I am hoping the new 2010 Fusion with the 2.5L and 6 speed will get 22/32. I would like to see Toyota drop a 1.6L turbo in the Camry. It would still get 160 hp but it should also get better mpg. On the downside the engine would probably need premium.
"But if your current ride is still reliable, don't get out of it just because you want to save a few bucks in fuel."
My thoughts exactly. I still look and test drive, however. If we needed to get a vehicle on short notice I want to be prepared.
"Heck, I'm impressed at how economical the current Avalon is, considering the size and power of it. And even in the base trim level, it seems really well equipped for the price."
Yes, it is hard to justify selling the car. It has a bit over 56K. When the conditions are right she will get 30 mpg on the highway. Even with gasoline approaching $4 per gallon I need to be patient and follow my own advice. There is no need to panic. :shades:
Welcome to the Forums . I am sure your very first post will attract attention from the moderator. Very nice web site with beautiful pictures. Thank you for the entertainement. I wish it were true....
"I'm not buying into the Oil is on a steady rise.'
I would agree that it is not really a steady rise. I was trying to make the point that prices will not jump as high as some people suggest.
"Just think about the untapped oil in Brazil, Columbia and Greenland. Not to mention North Dakota and the coast of Florida.."
Brazil - Initial estimates are encouraging, but like all oil fields until you start producing it is hard to say exactly how much oil is out there or how fast you can get it out the hole. The Brazil find is also deep water so $$$$ and technology is needed.
Greenland - the waters off north-eastern Greenland could contain up to 110 billion barrels. This is an estimate of course. We also will need 5 to 10 years to get the drilling going and set up the infrastructure.
North Dakota is doing well, but our daily production of 137,000 barrels a day is not all that high. We are seeing bottlenecks in getting the raw crude out of the state to refineries. Our one refinery only does 80,000 a day. I actually meet with the geologists each month that are working on the Middle Bakken so I get to hear things first hand. Unless we can reduce some of the bottlenecks production might be limited to under 200,000 a day.
The other thing to keep in mind is that for each field you mentioned there are just as many declining. Mexico, Norway, Oman, Yemen, Syria, Denmark, UK, Egypt, Russia?, Vietnam, Argentina, and Indonesia are all seeing declining production. Even the Middle East exports will decline as they use more oil internally. http://www.peakoil.nl/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/2008_april_oilwatch_monthly.pdf- -
Based on weighing all the numbers (supply and demand) I see prices rising somewhat but not to the $7 or $10 level some are predicting. I also see demand around the world keeping prices about where they are right now. If prices were to slip to $2.50 a gallon the flood gates would open. People would quickly go back to driving more.
If they use a little ingenuity, they can lower the COD by hydraulically lowering the suspension while cruising. There are many ways even the dinosaurs we drive now can be improved.
I consider my prediction conservative but not necessarily pessimistic as high fuel prices may wake the US creativity up and launch big alternative projects I am advocating.
> China is already paying $80 some billion to subsidize their fuel. Do you really think they can keep that up or go to $160 plus billion in 2011? I doubt it.
The gas price at the pump in China is about 25% lower than in the US. I attribute this difference to tax policies, as there is very little tax on gas, except in my area (Hainan Island) where gas prices are close to those in the US (3.75 USD /Gallon)
If you consider that subsidizing gas means not including many hidden costs in the gas pump price (political, human, sanitary, health, environmental..) then I agree that China gas is subsidized , (US gas too in this respect).
However, if you mean by subsidize, injecting state money to lower the price at the pump, I am pretty convinced it is not the case in China. My estimates are that China petroleum entities are more or less running at cost (which can be seen as a subsidy) but I don't see the China state pouring money at a loss. I don't really understand where the $80 billion you mention come from, but I believe there has been a mixup with a budget , a turnover or a lease. The China budget won't burn this money this way or not without an equivalent amount coming back with certainty.
There are obvious power shortages and China is known for building coal plants at frightening pace. A majority of electricity comes from coal in China as coal is still cheap. Obviously the link between oil and electricity is not as tense as with cars
2) I am not sure about the other countries you mention. I shall agree with you with the limits of subsidies. The price at the pump will increase dramatically there too.
3) For the US, People will change behaviours. The high speed train will be back as a viable alternative vis à vis rocketing plane and car costs. Some projects for full EVs will be launched and sucessful. America will have to move on from oil, how painful it may be. but not before oil has reached intolerable levels. Current prices pinch but are still acceptable. I agree it is going to be painful.
4) Local governments will certainly adapt to oil efficient management but I agree that this will pose a challenge though
5) I believe that 80% of people transportation in Japan is done by train or metro, thanks to their efficient and dense rail system. Weak spot is more in their power stations , a 30% only of those are nuclear. I think Japan is comparatively better prepared against expensive oil (better than the US in all case)
6) I agree from the US perspective that the demand may level off (could be also due to the recession), but not enough to compensate for the other countries gas consumption rise.
"3) For the US, People will change behaviours. The high speed train will be back as a viable alternative vis à vis rocketing plane and car costs. Some projects for full EVs will be launched and sucessful. America will have to move on from oil, how painful it may be. but not before oil has reached intolerable levels. Current prices pinch but are still acceptable. I agree it is going to be painful."
I have to say, I agree, although maybe not with the part about us developing high speed rail travel (!!). We in the U.S. are now paying the price for 30 years of reckless consumption paired with a total lack of a coherent national energy policy (this, after we had two perfectly good wake-up calls in the oil shocks of the 70s). And we may need to pay a higher, more painful price before we really get this ship turned in some sort of sustainable direction. We've still got people saying "let's drill our way out of this mess", we've still got people saying "what are you all complaining about? If you can't afford $4 gas then you are living beyond your means".
I noted in one of the Autoweek editorials this week that the federal gas tax of $0.18 per gallon now represents only 5% of the price of gas, where it represented 20% of the price when it was raised to the current level about 15 years ago. Perhaps if they raised it back to 20% (an increase of about $0.50/gallon at current prices) we would (A) finally see some real conservation around here, and (B) finally have enough money to fund the roads for maintenance and repair.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
As most of you know, but perhaps not the newcomers and one-off posters who ignore the member agreement, we have a low tolerance for ads and self promotion in the forums. It may take the hosts a few hours, but we will remove spam.
Although ... the 100 mpg spammers get razzed so quickly and hammered so hard in here, it's always tempting to let the post stay and watch them twist in the wind. :shades:
I have read thtough pages of discussion here and have only found that people complain about the problem of high prices. There is no real solutions to the problem given here, only more complaints and stating the obvious. Gas is not going to make a considerable drop, the only option here is to find alternative ways to do what we can with what we have.
For many people the option to stop driving or to buy the latest 40+ mpg vehicles is simply not an option. My previous post was removed because of solicitation. I do hope that those that did have the opportunity to have a look did so. I was that person, making choices based on the old saying about something being too good to be true. Many people doubt products that make any claim to be good without digging into the science behind them. Take that tornado thing that came out on TV a few years back, through research it was found to give NO SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT. My suggestion was for a product that has had over 10 years of use in the private sector and 2 years in the public.
My post was to offer a product that would help people to solve a problem, that problem being going into debt to drive to work. That is the road I was going down, my drive of nearly 100 miles to work one way forced me to find a solution, and I did so I share it. Which happens to be no different than making suggestion to try the new Avalon or Corolla. My apologies to the forum, I was under the impression that people were coming together to find solutions.
>Many people doubt products that make any claim to be good without digging into the science
I'm up to hearing the science behind this petroleum-based additive. Feel free to explain it for me. I have a science background. Or send a note to my user name here with @carspace.com--my carspace email. I'll even try a free sample if you'd like. :shades:
some stations in ct have been over the $4 level for about a week or so. as to your congratulations, connecticut has something to say to you, but it can't be posted here(for long). last october 16th, i filled up the mustang for 2.80 a gallon. considering the rise in gas prices since then, i will have to rank that as one of my better investments.
2024 Ford F-150 STX, 2023 Ford Explorer ST, 91 Mustang GT vert
Comments
Does the EPA really get involved in crash standards? Maybe they do but that seems outside their area of concern. Regardless, if the Smart ForTwo can achieve good crash test scores then I don't see this as an insurmountable obstacle. As I've stated numerous times, EVs biggest challenge in the market will be battery costs.
DO I think that CA panders to fringe wacko elements? YES, YES, YES.
Maybe so but CA does adhere to the democratic process. So it's possible these wackos aren't as "fringe" as you believe. I look at some of the strongly held beliefs in the Bible Belt. I personally consider a lot of these people to be wackos but I also realize that their beliefs typify the region. That being the case I choose not to live there. I'm curious why, as a retiree, you choose to live in CA when you don't share a lot of the common sentiment of other CA residents and their legislators. Have you ever considered Baja? Very little environmental protection in Mexico.
Have you seen the crash videos for the Smart. They are a tough little car. I do suppose it will be the NHTSA that requires the tests on the EVs. GM has the deep pockets required to let them crash a few. A small startup like Tesla is close to broke and have not delivered any of the promised cars. Battery cost will be the biggest obstacle facing EVs for mainstream.
I'm curious why, as a retiree, you choose to live in CA when you don't share a lot of the common sentiment of other CA residents and their legislators. Have you ever considered Baja? Very little environmental protection in Mexico.
First where I live in San Diego County it is 55% Republican. The rural areas of CA are not the same as LA and SF. It is a different World. And the weather is great. Baja is another story. I leased a place in Baja in 1995. It was very nice down there. Very inexpensive to live compared to San Diego which was only 15 miles away. Then the Feds diverted the drug trade from Florida up through Mexico. The crime is now horrendous. Most of my friends that used to go down there are afraid to anymore. Lots of kidnappings and murders. We have made Mexico a place that was just corrupt into a crime pit with our addiction to drugs. There was always pot. Now it is the main route for cocaine from Columbia.That is sad as I do not feel safe going down for lobster that I love.
When a car is cruising down the highway, the engine must overcome air friction, and engine/drive train friction. A smaller car has a smaller cross section and should have less air friction than a larger car with the same aerodynamic shape.
A smaller, lighter car can use a smaller engine, motor, battery, fuel cell to get the same acceleration as a larger car. These smaller components have fewer friction losses.
In Traffic Safety, Dr. Leonard Evans shows that a larger and lighter car is the best choice for overall safety. My car is small and gets larger where it counts when on the highway. You can build a car out of carbon fiber and it can be large and light.
It will probably be expensive.
I have to assume that the people in the EU are as innovative as we are. They have had very high fuel prices for decades and have not come up with anything but using diesel fuel. They do not even have the penetration of hybrids we have. Though I would much rather have a diesel vehicle than a hybrid. What makes you think we will come up with some miracle alternative? Everyone in the World has to live within the parameters of physics. To me the only bright light in the future may be biodiesel from algae. Hydrogen and EVs are still way in the future as replacements. Hydrogen still uses fossil fuel to manufacture. I seriously doubt I will see fuel cells on a practical scale in my lifetime. And EVs are not looking great in the next 10 years.
That is sad as I do not feel safe going down for lobster that I love.
When I lived In San Diego I used to make a trip to the Rosarito Beach Hotel several times a year just for their lobster dinner. It was awesome. Ever been there?
http://www.nd.gov/spo/agency/contracts/motor-vehicle-specs/
They are still buying Police cars with high performance V8s, however. Ya never know when one of those farmers decides to make a break for it in his Massey-Ferguson Combine. I hear the MF 6445 and MF 6455 have a top speed of 40km/hr. That is a neck snapping 24 mph for you non-metric folks.
Some agencies are changing a bit.
The Feds on the other hand, I saw a bunch of military types take a F250 to training 100 miles away. A sedan would have worked just fine. :mad:
May I drop a few thoughts to compound it a little
1) China is not really paying the full spot market price for oil. They struck very close relation ship with human right-loving countries such as Iran, Sudan, Venezuela and others, providing them with a virtual seat at the UNO security council and effectively blocking any serious initiative against those countries.
China also offer credit insurance services to those countries and of course provide the local tyran with plenty of project engineering and China made goods.
In return for cheaper / steady oil, those pariah countries are being protected by a powerful ally who will never meddle into their "internal" politics.
2) the car is a status symbol. riding a bicycle in China is regarded as being poor and people will do ANYTHING to buy a car to display their wealth, even at the expense of their own home.
I saw a $160.000 screaming new MBW 740i (import tax is 100% for cars) parked below a $40.000 apartment (i know it was the owner's) . I hear countless stories of people buying a nice car but living in the attics or even worse.
Bottom line : Chinese people will buy cars, because they prefer be gridlocked in a car in a 3 mph/5 mpg traffic jam in Beijing than being on a peasant's bike at 10 mph/ infinite mpg. Gas is too cheap
3) Priuses in China are a big disappointment with a few thousands units sold only. for the same price, people have "more" car elsewhere. Prius is not good for showing off. Gas is still too cheap
4) Motorcycles which generally offer better mpg are forbidden in many cities and on all highways. Electric scooters are pretty much restricted too. 2-wheels are seen as a substitute for bikes and carry the same negative meaning. Gas not expensive enough for such stupid law to be repelled.
5) Yes India is coming and many "smaller" countries are. They all want wheels and they will have some. Gas is still cheap
in sum up. I predict oil prices to simply double before 2011. And strongly believe my prediction is conservative.
I want off of this futures-trader ghastly bandwagon, eventually anyway. Might take a while to get there. And no, I don't blame Mitsubishi for the 0-0-0 fiasco. That's nuts. They were trying to sell cars. Isn't that what all carmakers are trying to do? That a bunch of young dorks grabbed the idea and then were dishonest as hell is certainly not Mitsubishi's fault. Mitsubishi's engines are strong and the body designs of the '08 Lancer and the '07+ Outlander are classic. I have grown to have nothing but respect for Mitsubishi, and the fact that the i-MIEV is budding success only lends more creedence to their engineering prowess. I mean, who is winning all of the Dakar races? Mitsubishi is, my friends.
Think about it. Just what an intelligent carmaker should do with the lessons learned in racing, Mitsubishi does. They build that knowledge in to their new crop of cars. Another route to go is retro-electrically-fitting my '08 Lancer GTS with an all-electric powertrain. :shades:
2021 Kia Soul LX 6-speed stick
That was my hang out in Rosarito. I set up the Karaoke with a friend. Last I heard he was still living in one of the cottages they have. The house I leased was in San Antonio del Mar right along the toll road before you get to Rosarito. I loved the food down there and it was very relaxing. I could have bought the house I was leasing. I probably should have done that. Nothing in there for less than $200k now. Still shaky for a gringo owning ocean front in Mexico.
China also offer credit insurance services to those countries and of course provide the local tyran with plenty of project engineering and China made goods.
In return for cheaper / steady oil, those pariah countries are being protected by a powerful ally who will never meddle into their "internal" politics. "
You make an excellent point here. The US is not the only game in town, far from it. I read another interesting anlysis on why prices are spiraling up - China, and its price protection, are part of it. These low, artificial prices keep the market from working, so consumption increases without control of prices. The effect is magified in oil producing contries with subsidized prices. World prices rise, their prices are fixed, but they have much more money to spend, so consumption skyrockets. That's one reason prices are now unstable.
That is very similar to what we did with Saudi Arabia after WW2. FDR signed that agreement to protect the Kingdom. In return the oil would be sold on the open market in USD. Problem is our left wing likes to meddle in the affairs of other countries when it is politically advantageous. Mainly to make the opposition look bad.
I potentially true but practically impaired. Regretfully most budgets of the Divided States of Europe are clogged by welfare and bureaucracy which sucks out any remaining budget for R&D, high education and meaningful investment.
I would have wished that the high amount of Fuel tax in France would be invested in large Alternative Energy /Mobility projects but it just struggles to pay for the debt's interests (2nd largest single expense in budget after MoEd)
Hopefully we have some high speed trains that save the face, but financing those is always a decade-old struggle.
Shame they don't make 'em anymore, Honda never made a penny on them. They just wanted to show that high MPG could be done.
2010 promises to be a good year for hybrids.
There have actually been lower power/higher economy police cars out for ages, now. The ones with the powerful V-8's are generally called "Interceptor Class", I think, while the more mundane versions are called "Patrol Class" or "Pursuit Class", can't remember which, now.
Back in the 80's, Chrysler actually offered a police package on the Aries/Reliant K-car! And I think the Slant Six was available with a police package since its inception back in 1960. Basically, all a patrol class copcar has to do is be rugged and durable, but not fast. Essentially a taxi, just wearing different colors and signage.
In the 90's, my county started using Luminas and Grand Prixes with the 3.1 V-6, and they got a run of the "whale" Caprices...but with the tiny 200 hp 4.3 LT1 V-8, and not the 260 hp 350 LT that the Impala SS used.
There was also a Taurus police package in the 90's, and Chrysler experimented around with a Dynasty police package, but never got beyond a few prototypes. They did do a copcar version of the 1998-2004 Intrepid, and it was quite capable...until you had to stop too quickly, that is. The brakes had a tendency to burst into flames! :surprise:
Nowadays, they do have the Charger/Magnum police package. Most of them actually have the 3.5 V-6, which puts it about on par with the Impala or Crown Vic. I don't think too many of them actually get the Hemi.
I guess the problem all along is that, while these more economical/less powerful packages were available, the cops just didn't want them. And back when gas was cheap, who could blame them?
I had an ex-police car for a few years, a 1989 Plymouth Gran Fury. It was the Interceptor Class. 318-4bbl, which was not available in a civilian model. Quicker rear end. Top speed of around 125 mph, which would have been laughable 20 years before, and is no great shakes today, but competent for the time. It had originally been owned by the city of Richmond, VA, and was a sheriff's car. Therefore, it was optioned up really well with power windows/locks, cloth seats, nice carpeting, tilt wheel, and probably one of the better stereo systems you could get in a Chrysler that year. It was used mainly to transport prisoners, serve summonses, drive to court, and do doughnut runs. Our tax dollars at work, eh? :shades:
True, then was then, now is now.....I've read maybe a million or so headlines were local budgets are in meltdown because of the $4 a gallon gasoline & diesel. I think we will see a slow shift to more economical cruisers as time goes on. But as soon as a re-run of Miami Vice comes on the cops are going to say: "I want one of those."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miami_Vice#Cars
"and do doughnut runs. "
I don't see the cops at our local Donut Hole! The guy that runs the water plant is always there before he starts work, however. :confuse:
Yeah, in the past I guess they could always just raise taxes, find some general fund to dip into, or whatever if they ran over budget. But now with property values falling, people getting foreclosed on (which usually means they're defaulting on property tax payments too), etc, I guess they're really getting squeezed.
And if the general public really is starting to drive slower as a result of higher gas prices, well there go the ticket quotas! :P
I test drove the 09 Corolla and Matrix yesterday. They would be OK around town but not so good on a road trip. Even if we go to $6 a gallon I would buy a 4 cyl. Camry or Fusion.
The salesman did say that the Tundras are moving slow and the Sequoias are making good boat anchors. He also said that people are coming in to dump the big SUVs to get smaller cars.
We did see a Prius in the lot with a sold sign. All the Prius cars are sold before they get to the dealer. A recent headline said Toyota has sold 1 million. Not bad for a car a lot of people dismissed as a fad.
I also want to congratulate Connecticut for going over $4 a gallon on RUG.
And, E85 dropped 17 cents yesterday! That is AAA adjusted price. E85 ($4.15) now is cheaper than PUG ($4.17) even using the adjusted price. Since E85 has plenty of octane (105) it is the cheaper fuel for cars that need high octane. There is a paradigm shift for sure.
http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/index.asp
Wow, are these Chinese people from Lower Northeast Philly by any chance? I see Lexi, Bimmers, and Benzes parked in front of run-down row homes and in the parking lots of shabby apartment complexes in marginal neighborhoods all the time! Do they buy them at the buy-here-pay-here lots in Shanghai?
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
Are you sure? If I understand your prediction you are saying the oil will be $250 a barrel and gasoline will be about $7.50 here in the U.S. in 2011.
I think your estimate is a bit pessimistic for several reasons.
1) China is already paying $80 some billion to subsidize their fuel. Do you really think they can keep that up or go to $160 plus billion in 2011? I doubt it.
2) Other countries such as Indonesia, India and Mexico that subsidize are close to the breaking point.
3) Here in the U.S. with the average household income being $50k or so, people cannot afford a doubling of gasoline costs. Not sure of the exact numbers, however ,the average person is likely paying $2,500 to $3,000 for gasoline a year. There is no way they can absorb an increase to $5,000 or more. Look at the increase in food prices. Does anyone out there think the average person can handle both the food increase and the gasoline increase. I don't think so.
4) Local government budgets are taking a big hit because of the higher diesel and gasoline prices. Can they or will they raise taxes? In our city they had to resort to two week bids on things like asphalt. No contractor would commit to longer price guaranties because of the rising prices.
5) Even countries like Japan are having inflation troubles which will limit demand growth. When their Nuke plant went down they started importing a lot of diesel to move around electrons. That will have an impact.
6) In sum the price increases already are altering demand here in the states. A quick look on the internet and you will see that the demand growth worldwide will start to slow if it hasn't already started to level off.
http://energyshortage.org/
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080516.wfivethings0516/BNS- - tory/Business/home
I agree, as I'd feel more comfortable in an economical midsized car than I would a compact. But if you're already driving an Avalon, I don't think switching to a 4-cyl Camry or especially a Fusion would really make much difference in your fuel bill.
Using those watered-down 2008 numbers, here's how the cars stack up:
Fusion 2.3/auto: 20/29
Camry 2.4/auto: 21/31
Avalon 3.5/auto: 19/28
2002 Avalon 3.0/auto: 19/27.
If you're in the mood for a new car, and don't want to spend a lot of money, I guess a Camry or Fusion wouldn't be bad. But if your current ride is still reliable, don't get out of it just because you want to save a few bucks in fuel.
Heck, I'm impressed at how economical the current Avalon is, considering the size and power of it. And even in the base trim level, it seems really well equipped for the price.
True, I would likely save $5 a month.
"Using those watered-down 2008 numbers, here's how the cars stack up:
Fusion 2.3/auto: 20/29
Camry 2.4/auto: 21/31
Avalon 3.5/auto: 19/28
2002 Avalon 3.0/auto: 19/27."
I keep a close watch on the numbers too. I am hoping the new 2010 Fusion with the 2.5L and 6 speed will get 22/32. I would like to see Toyota drop a 1.6L turbo in the Camry. It would still get 160 hp but it should also get better mpg. On the downside the engine would probably need premium.
"But if your current ride is still reliable, don't get out of it just because you want to save a few bucks in fuel."
My thoughts exactly. I still look and test drive, however. If we needed to get a vehicle on short notice I want to be prepared.
"Heck, I'm impressed at how economical the current Avalon is, considering the size and power of it. And even in the base trim level, it seems really well equipped for the price."
Yes, it is hard to justify selling the car. It has a bit over 56K. When the conditions are right she will get 30 mpg on the highway. Even with gasoline approaching $4 per gallon I need to be patient and follow my own advice. There is no need to panic.
:shades:
They will simply lower the posted limit from 65 to 45. This will boost their profits again. Need to amortize the "investment" of their laser guns
Here in IL that state police use them and I am seeing more and more municipal cops on them.
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
Welcome to the Forums .
I am sure your very first post will attract attention from the moderator. Very nice web site with beautiful pictures. Thank you for the entertainement. I wish it were true....
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
I would agree that it is not really a steady rise. I was trying to make the point that prices will not jump as high as some people suggest.
"Just think about the untapped oil in Brazil, Columbia and Greenland. Not to mention North Dakota and the coast of Florida.."
Brazil - Initial estimates are encouraging, but like all oil fields until you start producing it is hard to say exactly how much oil is out there or how fast you can get it out the hole. The Brazil find is also deep water so $$$$ and technology is needed.
Greenland - the waters off north-eastern Greenland could contain up to 110 billion barrels. This is an estimate of course. We also will need 5 to 10 years to get the drilling going and set up the infrastructure.
North Dakota is doing well, but our daily production of 137,000 barrels a day is not all that high. We are seeing bottlenecks in getting the raw crude out of the state to refineries. Our one refinery only does 80,000 a day. I actually meet with the geologists each month that are working on the Middle Bakken so I get to hear things first hand. Unless we can reduce some of the bottlenecks production might be limited to under 200,000 a day.
The other thing to keep in mind is that for each field you mentioned there are just as many declining. Mexico, Norway, Oman, Yemen, Syria, Denmark, UK, Egypt, Russia?, Vietnam, Argentina, and Indonesia are all seeing declining production. Even the Middle East exports will decline as they use more oil internally.
http://www.peakoil.nl/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/2008_april_oilwatch_monthly.pdf- -
Based on weighing all the numbers (supply and demand) I see prices rising somewhat but not to the $7 or $10 level some are predicting. I also see demand around the world keeping prices about where they are right now. If prices were to slip to $2.50 a gallon the flood gates would open. People would quickly go back to driving more.
Regards,
OW
Regards,
OW
Nice try. :P
"The Ford's mileage was unchanged. The Jeep's was three miles per gallon less with Ethos, and the Honda was unchanged."
http://www.kcra.com/station/9247909/detail.html
Regards,
OW
Regards,
OW
> China is already paying $80 some billion to subsidize their fuel. Do you really think they can keep that up or go to $160 plus billion in 2011? I doubt it.
The gas price at the pump in China is about 25% lower than in the US. I attribute this difference to tax policies, as there is very little tax on gas, except in my area (Hainan Island) where gas prices are close to those in the US (3.75 USD /Gallon)
If you consider that subsidizing gas means not including many hidden costs in the gas pump price (political, human, sanitary, health, environmental..) then I agree that China gas is subsidized , (US gas too in this respect).
However, if you mean by subsidize, injecting state money to lower the price at the pump, I am pretty convinced it is not the case in China. My estimates are that China petroleum entities are more or less running at cost (which can be seen as a subsidy) but I don't see the China state pouring money at a loss.
I don't really understand where the $80 billion you mention come from, but I believe there has been a mixup with a budget , a turnover or a lease. The China budget won't burn this money this way or not without an equivalent amount coming back with certainty.
There are obvious power shortages and China is known for building coal plants at frightening pace. A majority of electricity comes from coal in China as coal is still cheap. Obviously the link between oil and electricity is not as tense as with cars
2) I am not sure about the other countries you mention. I shall agree with you with the limits of subsidies. The price at the pump will increase dramatically there too.
3) For the US, People will change behaviours. The high speed train will be back as a viable alternative vis à vis rocketing plane and car costs. Some projects for full EVs will be launched and sucessful. America will have to move on from oil, how painful it may be. but not before oil has reached intolerable levels. Current prices pinch but are still acceptable. I agree it is going to be painful.
4) Local governments will certainly adapt to oil efficient management but I agree that this will pose a challenge though
5) I believe that 80% of people transportation in Japan is done by train or metro, thanks to their efficient and dense rail system. Weak spot is more in their power stations , a 30% only of those are nuclear. I think Japan is comparatively better prepared against expensive oil (better than the US in all case)
6) I agree from the US perspective that the demand may level off (could be also due to the recession), but not enough to compensate for the other countries gas consumption rise.
Let us see anyway. I could be mistaken.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
I have to say, I agree, although maybe not with the part about us developing high speed rail travel (!!). We in the U.S. are now paying the price for 30 years of reckless consumption paired with a total lack of a coherent national energy policy (this, after we had two perfectly good wake-up calls in the oil shocks of the 70s). And we may need to pay a higher, more painful price before we really get this ship turned in some sort of sustainable direction. We've still got people saying "let's drill our way out of this mess", we've still got people saying "what are you all complaining about? If you can't afford $4 gas then you are living beyond your means".
I noted in one of the Autoweek editorials this week that the federal gas tax of $0.18 per gallon now represents only 5% of the price of gas, where it represented 20% of the price when it was raised to the current level about 15 years ago. Perhaps if they raised it back to 20% (an increase of about $0.50/gallon at current prices) we would (A) finally see some real conservation around here, and (B) finally have enough money to fund the roads for maintenance and repair.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Although ... the 100 mpg spammers get razzed so quickly and hammered so hard in here, it's always tempting to let the post stay and watch them twist in the wind. :shades:
And money for those pork projects to win more votes back home, like new highways with no cars on them or a bridge to nowhere!!! :sick:
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
For many people the option to stop driving or to buy the latest 40+ mpg vehicles is simply not an option. My previous post was removed because of solicitation. I do hope that those that did have the opportunity to have a look did so. I was that person, making choices based on the old saying about something being too good to be true. Many people doubt products that make any claim to be good without digging into the science behind them. Take that tornado thing that came out on TV a few years back, through research it was found to give NO SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT. My suggestion was for a product that has had over 10 years of use in the private sector and 2 years in the public.
My post was to offer a product that would help people to solve a problem, that problem being going into debt to drive to work. That is the road I was going down, my drive of nearly 100 miles to work one way forced me to find a solution, and I did so I share it. Which happens to be no different than making suggestion to try the new Avalon or Corolla. My apologies to the forum, I was under the impression that people were coming together to find solutions.
Take care all.
I'm up to hearing the science behind this petroleum-based additive. Feel free to explain it for me. I have a science background. Or send a note to my user name here with @carspace.com--my carspace email.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
as to your congratulations, connecticut has something to say to you, but it can't be posted here(for long).
last october 16th, i filled up the mustang for 2.80 a gallon. considering the rise in gas prices since then, i will have to rank that as one of my better investments.