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Are gas prices fueling your pain?
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I won't bother asking you to cite a reputable source that says we have enough oil for 300 million cars for 300 years, because you pulled it out of your a**. Even the American Petroleum Institute, the super-optimistic lobbying arm for the oil and gas industry, thinks there is about 4% of that. And then there is the little problem of getting at North American reserves without spending more energy extracting and refining the stuff than we get back in energy return.
Before you start in with oil shale propaganda, 'oil' shale does NOT contain oil. It contains kerogen, which must be converted to crude using massive amounts of energy and water. Then, that crude must be refined into a usable fuel. Research has been going on for over 50 years and hundreds of billions of dollars to try to come up with some way to make a viable process to use oil shale, and it has failed, every time.
You can believe whatever you want. You might want to try looking at some facts though. If we drill every area of the US that is off limits, and every place in Canada and Mexico, without also importing foreign oil from outside NA, the US would be totally depleted within 12 years. Mexico's Total Reserves are estimated to be 10 years at current production, which means they will be competing with us for oil on the world market within 10 years. Canada will never export much more than 3 million barrels a day, or less than 13% of US consumption, because of water and natural gas constraints in the oil sands region. So, if we drill and pump until we have nothing left, in 10-15 years we will have a total North American supply of less than 4 million barrels a day against a current demand of 21 million. The Russians and OPEC are biding their time. They know within 20 years they will own us unless we get our act together. If SA, Iran and Venezuela decided tomorrow to cut us off, they would survive for years on the money they would get from China and have stashed away, and we would be in a major depression in under 12 months. We would be in the position of begging Russia for oil.
Look, the math is simple. We use 20.7 million barrels of oil a day. We import 12.04 million barrels a day of that. Oil is used for a lot of things besides transport. The US produces about 5 million barrels a day of crude. Our proven reserves are about 21 billion barrels. If we continue to produce 5 million bpd, we run out of proven reserves in 11.5 years. Our unproven reserves are estimated at 100 billion barrels. Recovery of the unproven reserves is iffy, so if we optimistically assume we can get at half of it, we get maybe 15 more years. So, 25 years or so from now, even importing at the same rate as today (HIGHLY unlikely), we are done. Depleted. We will have NO reserves. The world depletion and consumption rates are such that if at that point we can even buy a barrel of oil, it will be so expensive that it will not be used to run personal transport.
I happen to have a car that is thirty years old in my garage. It is sobering to think that a car bought today will not be running on gasoline refined from petroleum thirty years from now. Coal to oil is an environmental and energy efficiency disaster, but that is the only thing that will possibly keep your oil burner on the road 30 years from now. I'm looking right now to buy the last gasoline powered vehicle I will ever buy. Everything after that will have to be electric.
If SA, Iran and Venezuela decided tomorrow to cut us off, they would survive for years on the money they would get from China
Without US buying billions of dollars worth of shoes and junk China will not be able to afford the oil. It cannot be bought and stashed in large quantities. There are alternative fuels that may work. I am not a fan of ethanol. I do think that biodiesel from algae stands a chance. I don't ever see EVs as more than local commuter vehicles. Though they should be very good for city use and short trips.
we would be in a major depression in under 12 months.
I do believe if the gloom and doom pundits are correct and we jump to $10 or higher gas prices the country will go into convulsions. We would not have any means for all the lower paid people to get to work and we would come to a standstill. Most of the low paid people cannot afford a high mileage car to start with. They will be buying all the SUVs being dumped at a big loss by the wealthy that can afford a Prius. That will only make the problems worse.
But I was curious, here in Tucson, people riding bikes keep getting picked off by idiotic car drivers. Morons, I can't believe it should be this way, but it is. A lady in her 40's was killed yesterday. I don't know, Tucson is a city of U-turns. The way they build the streets with the "Turn Right Only" sings everywhere forces people to turn right, then they have to take a U-turn a half block or a block down the street to be able to get going in the direction they originally intended to go. It's actually pretty intelligent engineering because the traffic counts are so high that people would get so uptight waiting to pull out that they would take risky chances and pull out and get in to accidents.
I don't have any problem driving in Tucson, but I wouldn't ride a bike in that city. OTOH-riding a bike here in small Willcox, AZ, is a piece of cake.
Electric is my favorite choice for powering our next automobile. I am one who does have a carport for re-charging. I'm already planning for the conversion. It's coming, sort of like smelling Dennis Rodman long before he gets near you. Those socks! Yuk, Dennis!
I can literally smell all-electric vehicles coming before they arrive. It's just a matter of which manufacturer you want to go with. Right now they don't have long enough range. But engineers are slaving over that issue as I type this post out and they will find a solution. If they don't I'll probably buy an all-electric rig, anyway, but I think they'll nail 350-mile electric range within about two years. BYD in China is building all-electric cars and plans to import to the U.S. as soon as they can. They make one called the e6 that looks pretty decent. It's a crossover vehicle and I think they mentioned a range of some 186 miles. They have the technology to build this right now, they make their own batteries(they forte is making cell-phone batteries)and so they know batteries. I'll bet ya dollars to glazed Winchell's donuts that they will build and sell an e6 in China that will have a range of 300 miles sometime in the next year or two. Maybe two years.
By that time we'll be paying $6.59 for 87 no-lead and I'll be trading my '08 Lancer GTS in for an all-electric car. Well....maybe in about 5 years...or I'll have my Lancer retro-fitted to an all-electric powertrain. I am serious, I love that car's bodystyle and that way I can keep it, and not be tied to $6-$7 gallon gas. There are a handful of shops in America that are doing this right now. I would love to be a fly on the wall in those shops and pick up some all-electric information. Like how far are your electric engines propelling these cars right now would be one question I would ask. The top speeds are certainly acceptable right now, as are the charging configurations, and we are well-suited for charging, we have a carport with a plug about 3 or 4 feet from the front tip of my electric car.
I decided around December '07-January '08 that I was going to start researching all-electric cars in earnest in preparation for switching over.
Futures-trade that you thugs.
2021 Kia Soul LX 6-speed stick
Cheers Jack
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
Local moving company had several small over-the-road box type trucks drained of diesel fuel overnight and it made the news. Officer commented there had to be special equipment involved to handle that much fuel; someone didn't just put it in 5-gallon cans. I suspect lots more thefts are occuring around the area. I'll ask our officer friend when we stop at his house today.
>INFLATION!!!! Our increasingly worthless US$ guarantees it will bite us hard.
>I don't think the big problem will be the price. I'm more concerned about breakdowns in our society.
Exactly right. If the Fed quits hinting at stimulating the economy by improperly lowering the interest rates, then our returns on investments in US currency might increase and the value of the dollar increase subsequently and the price of oil drop measured in terms of that increased value dollar. If the election weren't looming, I suspect we'd be in a recession for sure and inflation would be accurately reported. That would lead to increased interest rates.
Until the election..., we're sunk with the do-gooders trying to buy votes with low interest.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/business/20080523_Ex-employees_sue_over_the_abrup- tness_of_the_shutdown__Anger_at_Jevic_mounting.html
I think back to the trucker's talking about how they couldn't reduce their speed to save fuel a few months ago. They said their trucks were geared to give the best fuel mileage at 70 or higher!!!
Now I notice that the trucks using I-70 seem to have decided that their trucks do better near the 55 Ohio speed limit for vehicles over 4 tons. I had noticed a reduction in the wrecklessly high speeds of trucks a couple weeks ago going to IKEA on I75. Now it's definite!!! They can save fuel at 55.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Or did you miss Katrina? How large an area was without electricity for how long? Or pick any other hurricane area - anyone here from Florida?
All the lower-paid people will simply stay home, at least the honest ones will. The remainder will be busy with their new criminal careers - nonviolent or otherwise.
My life fades. The vision dims. All that remains are memories. I remember a time of chaos. Ruined dreams. This wasted land. But most of all, I remember The Road Warrior. The man we called "Max". To understand who he was, you have to go back to another time. When the world was powered by the black fuel. And the desert sprouted great cities of pipe and steel. Gone now, swept away. For reasons long forgotten, two mighty warrior tribes went to war and touched off a blaze which engulfed them all. Without fuel, they were nothing. They built a house of straw. The thundering machines sputtered and stopped. Their leaders talked and talked and talked. But nothing could stem the avalanche. Their world crumbled. The cities exploded. A whirlwind of looting, a firestorm of fear. Men began to feed on men. On the roads it was a white line nightmare. Only those mobile enough to scavenge, brutal enough to pillage would survive. The gangs took over the highways, ready to wage war for a tank of juice. And in this maelstrom of decay, ordinary men were battered and smashed. Men like Max. The warrior Max. In the roar of an engine, he lost everything. And became a shell of a man, a burnt out, desolate man, a man haunted by the demons of his past, a man who wandered out into the wasteland. And it was here, in this blighted place, that he learned to live again...
You might be right about that but I'm not convinced it's all that important. When I first started driving in the mid 70's I'd say a good percentage of the vehicles on the road couldn't go more than 200 miles without refueling and everyone seemed to think that was acceptable. I personally believe that the ability to recharge quickly is at least as important as total range and the engineers have already accomplished that. So it's just a matter of standardizing these charging stations and getting them fielded. These stations don't need to be everywhere like gas stations. If they're placed at rest areas along highways and interstates that would probably suffice since you'd only need them on long trips.
When EVs become available I hope that the battery capacity is an option. Given the choice between a battery pack that provided 350 mile range and one that had 175 range I'd opt for the latter. It would cost and weigh half as much, which will not be trivial factors. A battery pack that could provide 350 mile range would have to hold 70 kWh of electricity. The most energy dense batteries today weigh close to 20 lbs per kWh. So we're talking about 1,400 lbs. Granted advances are being made in this field but a battery pack with this capacity will always be very heavy. As far as costs go I've read projections that with mass production the price for Li-ion batteries might get down to $250/kWh. So a 70 kWh battery pack would be costing you $17,500. That's a lot to pay just to avoid a couple re-charges on a long trip.
Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge EV advocate. I just think getting too wrapped up in trying to make their range comparable to an ICE is counter-productive. EVs will have other significant areas where they are superior to an ICE. I'll concede range superiority to the ICE. Of course you could get an EV with a range extender, i.e. Chevy Volt, and have the best of both worlds.
A whiff of ozone, a flash of sparks and a little puff of smoke...
I see SEPTA is starting to use more electric trams in lieu of diesel-powered buses.
When on my "electric assist" bike, I do the sidewalks almost exclusively, to avoid MOST of the risk of getting plowed down by a vehicle. A couple of times on my route I sometimes get into the bike lane for a short stretch, to avoid the random major sidewalk bump or to let a group of pedestrians pass so they won't have to get out of my way.
I have an AirZound air horn on the bike, which produces a honk in the 120-130 decibel range, so I can get a car's attention when I have to.
It's amazing how many drivers COMPLETELY IGNORE marked crosswalks. I never knew it was so bad until I started "sidewalk commuting."
I too would love a practical and affordable 4-passenger electric vehicle. I think the Mitsu MiEV will be a good one. Hope they can get that thing on the road here in the USA as soon as they hope to.
For EV's...
How about the option to double up...take the battery from your daily commuter and add it to the wife's mini-van for long trips. Of course that would consume valuable storage space...
No - nobody else is having any problems getting gas, or, they just have to wait a little bit at a crowded station. It's humorous to find people in this forum that cite one exact place to support a point that gas is in short supply..... The station next to the airport rent-a-car return, the New Jersey stations that get slammed because of their rules (you don't get gas today it will be definitely up tomorrow - they can only raise the price at certain times), the station next to the massive auto auction here in Pa.,.... The "shortage chicken littles" conveniently leave out observation that two blocks over that station is dead because it cost two pennies more or is simply too far away from rush hour traffic or the interstate.
I'm also getting a kick out of people that cite one financial analyst for their argument either way on oil speculation.... Wall St. analysts are like judges at a diving competition - they all see something different and the best you can do is to throw out the high and low scores. Posters that are going titanium-clad conclusion on one analysts OPINION...... You're joking right?
The only thing I've seen of late that has got my personal curiosity is in respect to futures market.... Something called "Virtual Hoarding", a recent development on Wall St. The pension funders are particularly fond of this new device.
I just have one simple question - how do you hoard something that doesn't exist? Even more dangerous - how do you hoard something that doesn't exist and try to sell something that doesn't exist when you want to adjust your position? This isn't even futures market anymore!
Oil is going to crash, but of course that is just my opinion.... not a fact.
The flack from the politicians pandering to the PC position that people who shouldn't have had mortgages are losing the homes we'll be subsidizing just like in the previous Savings and Loan debacles. If they would let the interest rates stabilize, the price of oil would come down.
But the politicians would rather face the complaints about fuel prices than the complaints about constituents "having been wronged" by being allowed to lose their homes.
It's all tied together. How do people invest trying to predict the future markets and interest rates?
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
They just told him he was fired basically. Your manager calls you in to the office and tells you that as of today you no longer have a job, are you going to finish out your workday?
When I was in customer service, yes - I did my job for the customer, not for the corporation. I'm not saying every day, nor am I saying every employee, however there are actually dedicated folks that take a huge amount of pride in what they do. I also personally know a few folks who want to "go out with class" and would do this kind of thing.
In addition, I don't know if he was told "We pay you through today" - Maybe that last paycheck was important.
It's amazing how the Wall Street types have been able to think of various schemes and scams to invest in and have been allowed by the securities folks in control to do so. Then when those lead to disruptions, the public taxpayers get to foot the bailout for the losses.
The bank manager was impressing me the other day as I moved a CD by telling me that here is twelve times as much oil being traded as is available. He said there was twelve times as much paper as there was oil. Speculative excesses? Can you say "tulip bulbs"?
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
But I do agree with you about the need to raise interest rates.
Do gas pumps still run without electricity?
Most people with transportation evacuate before a major hurricane.
Probably the driver had integrity and self respect about his work. That's missing from a great many today.
Saw brother-in-law last Wednesday. His 20s something son has been top salesman in phones at the store. He's been there only a few weeks. He actually gets there on time and sells and upsells. His goal is manage one of their stores with a year. The store manager gave him all the answers to the test questions he had to pass to stay on because they didn't want to lose him. He's making money or them and for himself! Good work ethics.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Shall we get back to gas prices?
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
In NY we have been well over $4 for all grades, and when I was in Boston last it was close, so I hope we see a pullback (temporary as it might be)
Maybe they are empty on the East Coast, not in San Diego. I wasted half a gallon of gas looking for a parking spot at Costco yesterday. The strip mall we shop at for groceries was packed. I cannot imagine how bad it will be today. At least half the vehicles are SUVs and PU trucks also.
I think you are wrong about low income people taking advantage of the low resale value on SUVs. Someone that always wanted a Tahoe and could not afford it now has the chance. They will snap them up not thinking about the $100 to fill the tank. At least that is what I am seeing out here. Many will also buy a vehicle before their credit gets trashed from walking away from their home that they bought with no money down and an ARM.
PS
I would love to see the interest rate go up a couple notches. Having money in a MM or CD is a joke right now.
Thank God, I got smart years ago and learned not to keep a balance on my cards. I gotta thank Herb Dennenberg, a local Philly TV news personality at the time, for showing me how credit cards work and why the minimum payment doesn't even scratch the principle on the balance.
Western Ohio, Speedway/Marathon country.
I was price-watching for friends who were driving to Missouri yesterday and the gasprice.com maps showed stations at $3.54/$3.49 until midday in suburban St. Louis. Just think, $3.49 (Sam's Club)!!! :sick:
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Just think, $3.49
I read that and actually thought, "Wow, that's great."
A single emergency generator running on the stored fuel - gasoline can pump gasoline for hundreds or thousands of vehicles. Especially the vehicles that are then repairing the area.
If the stored gas at the station does not exist then that single generator does not run, and the 1 or 2 EV's that might get charged every few hours, do not get charged. In any extraordinary situation stored-fuel wins over transmitted electricity.
That St. Charles Sams Club jumped to $3.68!!! $3.68
Even $3.68 evokes "Wow, that's great," from me now!
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Most people with massive credit card debt are getting slaughtered regardless, unless they have a spotless credit history. Credit cards are usually tied to the Prime rate, but once you get a blemish or two on your report, all bets are off. Also, sometimes even if you do have good credit, they'll jack up your rates. They might start you off at a nice, low rate (I'm not talking about those teaser rates that expire after a few months, either) but over time they'll "amend" your agreement. I only have one credit card that I use regularly, and I pay it in full every month. Still, the interest rate is something ridiculous on it. I could probably call them up and whine about it and get it reduced, but since I pay it in full I'm not that pressed. Although I lost track of the time and was a day late on a payment once, and got whacked with a $39 penalty (which I got waived) and then two weeks later, a $40 interest charge shows up! :mad:
Lowering the rates also hasn't done much for homeowners. Mortgages have gone down, but they're tied into something else, like T-bill rates or whatever. Car loans have gone down a bit, IF you have excellent credit. And also IF it's a model they're desperate to sell. HELOCs are tied to the Prime rate and will usually adjust in the following billing cycle if the Fed jacks around with rates.
But, HELOCs are considered pretty risky these days, and a lot of lenders are locking them...even if you have good credit. So if you have an HELOC with a $200,000 limit but only have a balance of $10,000 on it, your lender could theoretically lock you at $10K and not allow you to borrow any more. Worse, as you pay it down, it still stays locked, so if you pay down $2,000 one month, they won't let you pull $2,000 back out the next month if you need it. Lenders are starting to put their money into stable, but conservative investments like T-bills, and that's taking a lot of money previously earmarked for HELOCs off the table. That's why, about a month or so ago, I raided my HELOC. It's supposed to be for home repairs that I want to make this year, but ooh a nice tailfinned Dodge or DeSoto convertible would look nice in my garage. :P
Wow! The Carlisle Mopar show is going to be fun this year!
Anyway, beware of something else called "universal default." That means if you're late on ANY bill - be it the phone bill or cable, the credit card companies will use that as an excuse to raise your rate. It's also much harder to file for Chapter 7 bankruptcy due to the draconian new bankruptcy law passed two years ago. It was practically written by the banks and Bush & Co simply rubber-stamped it. I hope it comes back and bites them all in the butt.
2021 Kia Soul LX 6-speed stick
I buy gasoline using credit cards only for the discounts. This legislation attempts to rein in the billing practices and upping the interest rates on people. This includes the universal default that I hadn't heard about.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
"But he doesn't know just what might bring it about - perhaps the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates or a big drop in consumption as people worldwide can no longer afford to fuel their cars or heat their homes.
"If these prices stick, you may see whole neighborhoods where people abandon their homes," he said predicting that in the Northeast U.S. it will cost $5000 to heat a home unless prices fall."
It looks like 7 states are over the $4 and are virtually pain free....
Our big trip this Memorial day will be to the in-laws. Yahoo maps has it at 2.91 miles. We will use about 0.323 gallons of RUG. RUG is at $3.90 a gallon so the total gasoline costs will be $1.26. I can remember the good old days when we could make the trip for less than 4 bits. :sick: