I'm sure that there is no place that is pumping oil at a $90/barrel cost. The prices being paid today are purely the result of a perceived/potential shortfall in supply. If the supply doesn't match demand then it really is irrelevant how much it cost to pump the oil. All that matters is how much the market will pay for a limited commodity. If this potential shortfall actually manifests itself I'm confident that the market will pay significantly more than today's prices. We're getting very close to an abrubt wake-up call in regards to our energy policies, or lack thereof.
If it goes that high it would just give me more incentive to pedal more often to work. I already ride a lot, more so in the summer months, but it's always been mainly for fun and exercise. I usually give a thumbs up when I ride past a gas station that has recently raised their price.
And I know some people will say "I'm too old to ride a bike." Heck, I'm old enough to join AARP and it's 34 miles round trip. Give it a try.
I've done it already. Invested more $ in the Petrol Co's
I have some money invested in Exxon-Mobil and Shell. Interestingly, for all this skyrocketing of oil prices, it's really not making the stocks jump. Sometimes when oil spikes too much, it actually makes the stock prices go down a bit.
I think the link Steve posted tells us why. Exxon has to buy oil at $97 per barrel like everyone else to keep their refineries producing gas. They make big bucks on the oil reserves they produce and it costs them dearly for the oil they buy on the open market. I look for some of the OPEC producers to get greedy and open up the spigots they closed earlier this year. From my years in the oil field, production always went up with the price. Get the money while it is flowing.
I look for some of the OPEC producers to get greedy and open up the spigots they closed earlier this year. From my years in the oil field, production always went up with the price. Get the money while it is flowing.
When you were in the oil business there actually was considerable spare production capacity. That's no longer the case.
My understanding is that Saudi Arabia is the only OPEC member that is actually complying with the reduced production quotas announced earlier this year. The rest are pretty much pumping oil at their maximum capacity, so there are no spigots to open with the exception of the Saudis. If greed is the driving force why would Saudi Arabia want to increase their production by 10% if it might result in a 20% drop in oil prices? I've heard the arguments that the Saudis are beholding to us and are heavily invested in our economy. Whether or not that is true it sure doesn't appear to influence their policies. Anyway the US and global economic data is strong right now even with high oil prices. So for the Saudis to increase production would represent an act of generosity, which is unlikely going to happen.
When they do it, the Saudis "open the spigots" in order to depress oil prices quickly and dramatically (which they have the excess production capacity to do) to punish OPEC members and other oil-producing nations that won't fall into line.
I am hoping they feel some punishment is necessary here some time soon! :-P
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
I think the best thing many of us can do is to defer buying a new vehicle until much more fuel efficient technologies are available. I'm waiting for a diesel but in 5 years or so who knows what technology may be available. Just my $4.00.
True. I could probably go for a l-o-n-g time without buying a new car. I just got to fight the urge to want one. However, I NEVER would've got a huge gas-swilling SUV regardless of how cheap fuel was.
True. I could probably go for a l-o-n-g time without buying a new car. I just got to fight the urge to want one. However, I NEVER would've got a huge gas-swilling SUV regardless of how cheap fuel was.
Same here. With my rag-tag fleet of old cars, I could probably just keep rotating through them, without ever having to buy another one, until the world finally runs out of oil!
It's hard sometimes, though, to fight the urge to get something else. Part of me wants to get rid of my Intrepid, which just had its 8th anniversary with me on November 6, but part of me wants to see if it'll go another 8 years!
There's a guy at work who has a 2006 Silverado, fairly basic work truck, with a 5.3 V-8. I was talking with him this morning. He averages about 19 mpg in mostly highway driving. If I work at it, I can get 18 out of my '85 Silverado 5.0 on the highway. So it would probably never pay me to buy a new truck simply for the fuel economy. Especially since most of my driving is local.
You could just rent one every so often for a weekend trip. And from my POV, that '68 Buick wagon you used to have is a huge gas-swilling SUV in disguise.
Actually, the '68 Buick wagon I had got rather good fuel economy. Buick didn't have any full-size wagons in 1968 rather two intermediates: the 116" wheelbase Special Deluxe wagon, which I had, and the 121" wheelbase SportWagon. My Special Deluxe wagon actually was pretty decent on fuel despite its size. It was much lighter than any current cars. Current vehicles might not be as long, but they are a lot heavier. I saw MotorWeek last night and it described a Volvo wagon being something like 4,200 lbs! Dang, that's almost as heavy as my much larger 1979 Buick Park Avenue!
My Special Deluxe wagon actually was pretty decent on fuel despite its size. It was much lighter than any current cars.
Sometimes there's also little correlation between vehicle/engine size and fuel economy. For example, my '68 Dart, with a 318-2bbl, weighing maybe 3000-3200 lb, would get about 17 mpg on the highway. My '67 Catalina, with its 400-4bbl and probably a good 800-1000 lb more weight, would almost break 18.
Only mitigating factors I can think of are gearing...2.76:1 for the Dart and 2.56:1 for the Catalina. Not a huge difference, but maybe just enough to benefit the Catalina a bit. Also, I guess it's possible that with the 4-bbl, the primaries are just smaller than the Dart's 2-bbl. But the Dart's 2-bbl still looks awfully small to me. Oh, something else I just forgot about...the a/c in the Catalina never worked, so the a/c belt was disconnected, while the Dart's a/c still had the belt. I dunno if that would really make much difference either, though.
One definite plus of a '68 Buick, versus a modern vehicle, is that it's low-slung enough that it's not going to block the vision for other drivers around it, like these more modern, taller cars will. Of course, the driver of said Buick gets to experience just the opposite...a world where even something like an xA can easily block your vision ahead.
Deferring is tricky, because if you hold onto your gas guzzler, it might, if gas gets REALLY expensive, become nearly worthless in resale, whereas if you buy the gas sipper at the right time, and THEN gas gets expensive, you'll have a hell of a return on resale. So you could lose $3,000 in resale value in a matter of weeks. Unless of course your car is an old beater.
Naturally, if you never sell it, then the resale doesn't matter.
On the other hand, you have no warranty. Blow a head gasket, and that's about 450 gallons of gas you just bought.
RE: Gas in California.
I just saw $3.79 on 19th Avenue in San Francisco, for premium. We're gettin' close to $4!
It depends on how much of a guzzler the car is. I wouldn't want to be like the guy who sold his Hemi 'Cuda in 1974 for chicken feed only to want to kick himself in the future. Instead of dumping any of my rides, I'd just get some little hooptie to drive around until things improved.
Yeah but that's media jive. Big Sur is an incredibly isolated place and truckers have to grind long distances over dangerous roads. There's only one way in and one way out. During mudslides or storms, those people in Big Sur are essentially cut off from the world.
That's like using Aspen as a bellwether for gas prices.
I fight the urge to buy by doing the math, putting 2 coats of Meguiar's Gold Class liquid wax, and 3 coats of Black Magic brand tire wet on my 02 Accord EX V6. Works every time! Plan to drive it indefinitely. It's been perfect since new, now at 85k.
Yeah I'm sure relief packages will start flowing into Aspen momentarily. :shades: Remember this is a town that had to pass an law prohibiting new houses that exceed 55,000 (that's not a typo) square feet.
And now back to the Great Unwashed Middle Class and what do WE do about gas prices.....
When they do it, the Saudis "open the spigots" in order to depress oil prices quickly and dramatically (which they have the excess production capacity to do) to punish OPEC members and other oil-producing nations that won't fall into line.
So tell me about the Saudi's reserve capacity My opinion is that it consists of heavy, high-sulfur crude... perhaps 2 mmbpd capacity... that the world's refiners are not equipped to handle. No one appears to have light, sweet crude reserve capacity.
I doubt that we will ever see Saudi production hit 10 mmbpd again. Half their production comes from (or did) one giant field complex called Ghawar, which happens to be the largest field in the world. The northern half, where the light sweet oil is, appears to be watered out and heading into sharp decline. The Saudis can drill all they want but they will never be able to replace northern Ghawar.
The only other country that appears to have the potential for a large increase in production is Iraq, which would appear to have a few issues, eh?
Here in the northeast, I'd say that many people are more concerned with home heating costs than with gasoline prices. Mnay people use 10 gal/day of heating-oil in the dead of winter.
I'm looking to buy a place and I'm thinking electric heat is not that bad idea long-term. I'm looking to buy within 5-10 miles of work. I could literally buy the house across the street, but looking at the old factory building where I work, would be depressing.
Here in the northeast, I'd say that many people are more concerned with home heating costs than with gasoline prices. Mnay people use 10 gal/day of heating-oil in the dead of winter.
I just called about a week ago to renew my oil contract. This year it's market price, with a $3.55/gal cap.
Just for comparison, here's what the contract prices were the previous years: 11/2003: $1.19/gal 11/2004: $1.74/gal 11/2005: market price with a $3.19/gal cap. (most I paid was $2.64) 11/2006: forget what the cap was, but the most I paid was $2.78.
I had thought about ditching the oil furnace and getting a heat pump, but then our electric rates have shot up about 50% since the summer of 2006, so they get ya coming and going.
Fortunately, our winters here in MD usually aren't TOO evil. I probably burn about 400-500 gallons per year.
Before you go and do expensive heater replacements look around the house and see if there are things you could do to conserve. Is there enough insulation in the attic? How good are the windows? What is your wall insulation like? Weather-stripping around doors? If you have an older house, you can get grants to cover some of the costs. A buddy of mine replaced all of his windows and the local power company paid for 25% or so of the costs.
Before you go and do expensive heater replacements look around the house and see if there are things you could do to conserve.
yeah, I've been slowly working that angle, too. My house is pretty old, built in 1916, and most of the windows are original. I've been doing what I can, to fix leaks and drafts here and there, and insulating where I can.
In all seriousness, I probably wouldn't do a heat pump. I like the way the oil heat warms up the place almost immediately. I could probably turn it off during the day, come home from work, crank it up, and get the whole place nice and toasty in about 5-10 minutes. With a heat pump, it would probably have to run all day, and still just give me that barely-warm feeling.
One nice thing about going electric though, would be that it would help cutting my dependence on oil. As for the source of my electric, I think the electric company only uses oil for about 3-4% of its production. The vast majority of it comes from nuclear or coal.
It (Smart car) doesn't do anything that a small hybrid or a diesel can do. In fact the hybrid and diesel would be better choices as they can actually haul more people and luggage.
(It's been said many times already) If you want to save money, probably the best way is to go buy a 60K mile depreciated 5-year old Ford or Chevy sedan and drive it until a major repair at 150K or 200K miles. The money you'll save in insurance, depreciation, and taxes would save you far more than the differential in gas between it and a Smart, hybrid, or new diesel.
It's rather unbelievable that people who consider to pay $25K+ for a new car, can in the next sentence fret about $3 or $4 gas! Isn't that similar to penny-wise and pound foolish? Go buy a $5K car, put the $20K in a money market at 5% and you'll get a $1,000 to put towards gas.
That is too logical for the American public to comprehend. They are convinced that they need a car payment to be real Americans. The monthly interest alone on a new car is more than many people spend for gas per month.
When I filled up on Thursday night, the person before me had pumped $106 worth of gas. YIKES. In my little car, I only needed $25, but that's a fill-up I could have done for $15 just two years and a few short months ago, the summer before Katrina (2005).
If as you noted in another thread fuel goes up 50c for every $10 price increase in oil then fuel 'should' be ~ $5.00 a gallon soon. $60 per bbl on Jan 1 of this year. $100 per bbl now. Gas was $3.00 most of the Spring.
At $4.50 a gallon which seems reasonable 12 gal into a Civic costs $54 to fill and allows one to go about 420 mi 10 gal into a Prius costs $45 and allows about 480 mi 16 gal into a V6 Malibu costs $72 and allows about 400 mi 24 gal into an F150 costs $108 and allows 385 mi 20 gal into a Durango costs $90 and allows 325 mi.
...that gas always spikes in the spring and the fall because they are switching fuel blends? Anybody remember this? It just happened 6 months ago. And 6 months before that...
Everybody should just ease up on the doom and gloom for a little while.
Sorry that's hiding under the covers and hoping the 80's return.
A realistic scenario is this....plan on gas going up $.50 per gallon per year from now on. It's not going down, that's a dream. 2007 .. $3.00 on average 2009 .. $4.00 2011 .. $5.00 2013 .. $6.00 2015 .. $7.00 2017 .. $8.00 2019 .. $9.00
Yes there will be fluctuations during any period but to hide from the facts is to live in a fantasy. Need quotes from the Chairman of Shell, or the Chairman of Total or the IEA recently? Essentially they've all said demand is booming and the oil to feed the demand is not available.
On October 22, the Energy Watch Group issued a very bleak report on the state of the global oil supply. This group was commissioned by the German Government to perform this study
More sobering facts from our own DOE Energy Information Agency...
We use about 25% of all the oil used in the world. Any sudden shortfalls in petroleum will hurt us more than a nation that uses very little because the population is walking ( 3rd world ) - or using mass transit ( Europe ) Our vehicles account for about 2/3 of our national oil consumption ( 14 mmbpd / 20.5 mmbpd ) Our vehicles alone use more oil products than any other nation on earth .. in toto. Our vehicles alone burn more than 1-1/2 times the entire output of S. Arabia ( 9-10 mmbpd )
Or spend $20,000 fixing up a high-mileage $5,000 car over the next 5 years (length of warranty on a new car).
Hold the anecdotes! Old cars cost money to keep on the road otherwise there wouldn't be so many repair shops.
I think buying a very new high tech fuel-efficient car and keeping it 7-9 years makes sense. It's when people buy and sell their new cars so quickly that it's not smart thinking IMO.
We use about 25% of all the oil used in the world. Any sudden short falls in petroleum will hurt us more than a nation that uses very little because the population is walking ( 3rd world ) - or using mass transit ( Europe ) Our vehicles account for about 2/3 of our national oil consumption ( 14 mmbpd / 20.5 mmbpd ) Our vehicles alone use more oil products than any other nation on earth .. in toto. Our vehicles alone burn more than 1-1/2 times the entire output of S. Arabia ( 9-10 mmbpd )
At least we still extract/produce liquid fuels in this country... unlike most of Europe or Japan. It's tough being a car enthusiast and believing that we need to conserve oil. I really doubt that global oil production will ever hit 90 mmbpd. It just seems to me that depletion rates will counter new projects coming online and that major exporters, like S. Arabia and Russia will have increasing internal demand cutting into their exports.
Case in point is Mexico where exports are falling due to both declining production and increasing internal demand. At present decline rates Mexico will have ceased all exports within nine years. Where will the U.S. make up for that short fall? Iraq?...
My current car is an Audi A4 with a chipped 2 liter engine, which actually gets pretty good mileage. As a car nut, I'm pretty hot on the new Evo but I just can't resolve purchasing one considering that it will probably be a gas pig. Wish those nifty Euro diesel engine options would come to the U.S. sooner
I can't imagine what American car would rack up $20K or even $10K of repairs in 5 years. Maybe some high-tech Cadillacs? And if you got every bell-and-whistle fixed at the dealer?
No, a 5 year old car is fairly inexpensive to maintain - tires, brakes, a $50 battery, a few light bulbs, radiator flush, maybe a few hundred for a starter or alternator. You're talking a few thousand dollars. And if you know which end of a screwdriver to use, and buy a $100 jack ...
No, a 5 year old car is fairly inexpensive to maintain
True but a 5 year old car becomes more expensive to maintain much faster than a new car. In 5 years that 5 year old car will be ten years old requiring a lot more maintence.
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
Well you may not consider the Civic hybrid and Prius small, but small is a relative term, and yes they are small relative to most other vehicles. And certainly tere are used Insights on the road and available.
And in a few months there will be the advanced Jetta TDI's - again relatively small on the road. And I bet that carries over to the Rabbit in a year or two.
I have seen these types of small cars which are capable of getting 50mpg, but have never physically seen a Smart on a road or dealer. You shouldn't get too wrapped up in a hype on a supposedly great idea - the Smart could be as well received and as much of a transportation solution as the Segway.
It's unbelievable that people who pay $25K for a new car fret about $4 gas! Isn't that penny-wise and pound foolish? Go buy a $5K car, put the $20K in a money market at 5% and you'll get a $1,000 to put towards gas.
That's a great theory, but the reality is that almost NO ONE pays cash for their cars, so the premise is flawed. How many people do you know that write a $25,000 check for a car, especially when they can get financed for 0%-3%?
For example, I bought a Honda Civic Hybrid in May. I put ZERO down, and financed the full amount @ 2.9%. Meanwhile, I'm earning 4.2% on my money market account. So I'm actually getting PAID to use Honda's money to buy my car.
As for used cars vs. new, I learned my lesson during my teens and early 20s about used; there's usually something wrong with 'em, and that's why the owners are selling 'em.
And it's not so much the expense of the repairs after the car breaks down, it's the inconvenience and even danger of the breakdown in the first place that keeps me buying new. I don't want to get stranded on some desert highway in Arizona, or some country road in Texas, or on I-15 on the way to Las Vegas. I don't want to see whatever plans I had trashed, while I wait for a tow truck, then spend the next day getting bent over by some small town mechanic who swears that it'll cost $450 to replace my Johnson Rod.
A 5 year old car is 8 years old in 3 more years, and a modern transmission rebuild on even a modest car can cost a couple thousand dollars. An engine rebuild can cost more than an 8 year old car is worth, forcing you to buy another 5 year old car.
Also not part of our argument here is the fact that many people "nurse" 5 to 8 year old cars but these cars are not capable of the distances, speed and work levels of newer cars.
I've been borrowing my friends 2000 Corolla and believe me, it's tired. He thinks it's a GREAT car because it doesn't break down. I think it needs an immediate $3,000....tires, shocks, brakes and rotors, oil leak, no dome light, cracked tail light lens, leaking mufflerleaking, broken seat adjuster, no overdrive, very slow electric windows. His cleaning lady is dying to buy it off him, and so "the beater does go on"!!
I have seen these types of small cars which are capable of getting 50mpg, but have never physically seen a Smart on a road or dealer.
I've already driven it, and it does what I want it to do. It also weighs and costs less than a Prius or a Jetta, and I don't need the back seat or trunk.
Just around the corner are two new 'small' hybrids. Honda is building theirs in the Midwest and the Prius, due here in 12 months, should have a small sedan along with the new Gen3 hatch.
True, except that there are no small hybrids or diesels available in the US market today.
Go buy a $5K car, put the $20K in a money market at 5% and you'll get a $1,000 to put towards gas.
That will save money, but it won't reduce your gasoline usage by any significant amount.
This is a great point because there are two separate issues here, both of which have to be addressed.
1) Our individual 'cost of transportation'. It includes vehicle cost, fuel, insurance, repairs. It's similar to Edmunds TCO but it also includes used vehicle which Edmunds does not address. If the goal is to keep the cost of transportation as low as possible we should all be purchasing/driving older used vehicles. The vehicle cost is the largest part of the driving expense. This implies that as gas goes up the sales of new vehicles no matter what they are may go down; people will keep their current ( probably paid off ) vehicles and just drive them into the ground. Or when they do need another look at a $5000 or $10000 vehicle iso a $25000 one.
2) However the current older vehicles on the road or used vehicles which might be bought are presumably using older technology which isn't as efficient as the newest. Driving older technology does not help us as a nation to hold down our personal petroleum usage. Whether one drives a 16 mpg 2007 truck or a 14 mpg 1996 truck doesn't matter to the nation as a whole. One depletes our fuel nearly as fast as the other.
Congratulations, you have helped keep our balance sheet from going over the top. I find that if you take that payment and put it in the bank every month that it takes less time to accumulate enough for a new car.
For example, I bought a Honda Civic Hybrid in May. I put ZERO down, and financed the full amount 2.9%. Meanwhile, I'm earning 4.2% on my money market account. So I'm actually getting PAID to use Honda's money to buy my car.
The only flaw I see is that most car deals for 0%-2.9% interest are an either or option. Many times you can get an additional $1500 off in lieu of low interest. I bought my Kubota tractor with 0% interest and found that a good deal. I have always been able to squeeze a lower price on a vehicle by not using their come-on interest rates.
I know many people that do not lease that pay cash for vehicles. My wife has never bought a vehicle on time in 40 years. She would save her pennies until she had the money.
No doubt, but you are probably atypical. The average person has more requirements than a Smart; though some times those requirements are optional "needs".
An average family of 4 who can only afford 1 or 2 vehicles is not going to choose a Smart. A single person in a city might, or someone who can afford the family vehicle + a commuter Smart.
I can't imagine what American car would rack up $20K or even $10K of repairs in 5 years.
My wife has spent right at $18k on maintenance and repairs for her 1990 LS400 Lexus since it was new. That includes service, tires, brakes etc etc. It would have been a lot less if she had found a good independent repair shop 10 years ago. The car runs great. It is now our backup car for family emergencies.
We agree, that a new car is pretty much money down the toilet. I still buy into a new vehicle from time to time, usually regret it 6 months later.
Comments
aired up the tires, installed new air filter, & set the CC to 10 mph less than the previous cruising speed after starting earlier for my destination.
And I know some people will say "I'm too old to ride a bike." Heck, I'm old enough to join AARP and it's 34 miles round trip. Give it a try.
If I do will you take care of my widow?
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
I have some money invested in Exxon-Mobil and Shell. Interestingly, for all this skyrocketing of oil prices, it's really not making the stocks jump. Sometimes when oil spikes too much, it actually makes the stock prices go down a bit.
When you were in the oil business there actually was considerable spare production capacity. That's no longer the case.
My understanding is that Saudi Arabia is the only OPEC member that is actually complying with the reduced production quotas announced earlier this year. The rest are pretty much pumping oil at their maximum capacity, so there are no spigots to open with the exception of the Saudis. If greed is the driving force why would Saudi Arabia want to increase their production by 10% if it might result in a 20% drop in oil prices? I've heard the arguments that the Saudis are beholding to us and are heavily invested in our economy. Whether or not that is true it sure doesn't appear to influence their policies. Anyway the US and global economic data is strong right now even with high oil prices. So for the Saudis to increase production would represent an act of generosity, which is unlikely going to happen.
I am hoping they feel some punishment is necessary here some time soon! :-P
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Buying a new car just because its more fuel efficient doesn't make much sense financially unless you are going from 8 MPG to 40.
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
Same here. With my rag-tag fleet of old cars, I could probably just keep rotating through them, without ever having to buy another one, until the world finally runs out of oil!
It's hard sometimes, though, to fight the urge to get something else. Part of me wants to get rid of my Intrepid, which just had its 8th anniversary with me on November 6, but part of me wants to see if it'll go another 8 years!
There's a guy at work who has a 2006 Silverado, fairly basic work truck, with a 5.3 V-8. I was talking with him this morning. He averages about 19 mpg in mostly highway driving. If I work at it, I can get 18 out of my '85 Silverado 5.0 on the highway. So it would probably never pay me to buy a new truck simply for the fuel economy. Especially since most of my driving is local.
Sometimes there's also little correlation between vehicle/engine size and fuel economy. For example, my '68 Dart, with a 318-2bbl, weighing maybe 3000-3200 lb, would get about 17 mpg on the highway. My '67 Catalina, with its 400-4bbl and probably a good 800-1000 lb more weight, would almost break 18.
Only mitigating factors I can think of are gearing...2.76:1 for the Dart and 2.56:1 for the Catalina. Not a huge difference, but maybe just enough to benefit the Catalina a bit. Also, I guess it's possible that with the 4-bbl, the primaries are just smaller than the Dart's 2-bbl. But the Dart's 2-bbl still looks awfully small to me. Oh, something else I just forgot about...the a/c in the Catalina never worked, so the a/c belt was disconnected, while the Dart's a/c still had the belt. I dunno if that would really make much difference either, though.
One definite plus of a '68 Buick, versus a modern vehicle, is that it's low-slung enough that it's not going to block the vision for other drivers around it, like these more modern, taller cars will. Of course, the driver of said Buick gets to experience just the opposite...a world where even something like an xA can easily block your vision ahead.
Naturally, if you never sell it, then the resale doesn't matter.
On the other hand, you have no warranty. Blow a head gasket, and that's about 450 gallons of gas you just bought.
RE: Gas in California.
I just saw $3.79 on 19th Avenue in San Francisco, for premium. We're gettin' close to $4!
Gas Prices Hit $4 In California (theksbwchannel.com)
That's like using Aspen as a bellwether for gas prices.
Gas prices rise; Aspen prepares for more than $5 per gallon (summitdaily.com)
And now back to the Great Unwashed Middle Class and what do WE do about gas prices.....
So tell me about the Saudi's reserve capacity
I doubt that we will ever see Saudi production hit 10 mmbpd again. Half their production comes from (or did) one giant field complex called Ghawar, which happens to be the largest field in the world. The northern half, where the light sweet oil is, appears to be watered out and heading into sharp decline. The Saudis can drill all they want but they will never be able to replace northern Ghawar.
The only other country that appears to have the potential for a large increase in production is Iraq, which would appear to have a few issues, eh?
I'm looking to buy a place and I'm thinking electric heat is not that bad idea long-term. I'm looking to buy within 5-10 miles of work. I could literally buy the house across the street, but looking at the old factory building where I work, would be depressing.
I just called about a week ago to renew my oil contract. This year it's market price, with a $3.55/gal cap.
Just for comparison, here's what the contract prices were the previous years:
11/2003: $1.19/gal
11/2004: $1.74/gal
11/2005: market price with a $3.19/gal cap. (most I paid was $2.64)
11/2006: forget what the cap was, but the most I paid was $2.78.
I had thought about ditching the oil furnace and getting a heat pump, but then our electric rates have shot up about 50% since the summer of 2006, so they get ya coming and going.
Fortunately, our winters here in MD usually aren't TOO evil. I probably burn about 400-500 gallons per year.
yeah, I've been slowly working that angle, too. My house is pretty old, built in 1916, and most of the windows are original. I've been doing what I can, to fix leaks and drafts here and there, and insulating where I can.
In all seriousness, I probably wouldn't do a heat pump. I like the way the oil heat warms up the place almost immediately. I could probably turn it off during the day, come home from work, crank it up, and get the whole place nice and toasty in about 5-10 minutes. With a heat pump, it would probably have to run all day, and still just give me that barely-warm feeling.
One nice thing about going electric though, would be that it would help cutting my dependence on oil. As for the source of my electric, I think the electric company only uses oil for about 3-4% of its production. The vast majority of it comes from nuclear or coal.
This might be a solution, I just hope it has a very short crumple zone.
(It's been said many times already) If you want to save money, probably the best way is to go buy a 60K mile depreciated 5-year old Ford or Chevy sedan and drive it until a major repair at 150K or 200K miles. The money you'll save in insurance, depreciation, and taxes would save you far more than the differential in gas between it and a Smart, hybrid, or new diesel.
It's rather unbelievable that people who consider to pay $25K+ for a new car, can in the next sentence fret about $3 or $4 gas! Isn't that similar to penny-wise and pound foolish? Go buy a $5K car, put the $20K in a money market at 5% and you'll get a $1,000 to put towards gas.
If as you noted in another thread fuel goes up 50c for every $10 price increase in oil then fuel 'should' be ~ $5.00 a gallon soon. $60 per bbl on Jan 1 of this year. $100 per bbl now. Gas was $3.00 most of the Spring.
At $4.50 a gallon which seems reasonable
12 gal into a Civic costs $54 to fill and allows one to go about 420 mi
10 gal into a Prius costs $45 and allows about 480 mi
16 gal into a V6 Malibu costs $72 and allows about 400 mi
24 gal into an F150 costs $108 and allows 385 mi
20 gal into a Durango costs $90 and allows 325 mi.
At $6 / gal add another 1/3 to those costs.
Everybody should just ease up on the doom and gloom for a little while.
Sorry that's hiding under the covers and hoping the 80's return.
A realistic scenario is this....plan on gas going up $.50 per gallon per year from now on. It's not going down, that's a dream.
2007 .. $3.00 on average
2009 .. $4.00
2011 .. $5.00
2013 .. $6.00
2015 .. $7.00
2017 .. $8.00
2019 .. $9.00
Yes there will be fluctuations during any period but to hide from the facts is to live in a fantasy. Need quotes from the Chairman of Shell, or the Chairman of Total or the IEA recently? Essentially they've all said demand is booming and the oil to feed the demand is not available.
More sobering facts from our own DOE Energy Information Agency...
We use about 25% of all the oil used in the world.
Any sudden shortfalls in petroleum will hurt us more than a nation that uses very little because the population is walking ( 3rd world ) - or using mass transit ( Europe )
Our vehicles account for about 2/3 of our national oil consumption ( 14 mmbpd / 20.5 mmbpd )
Our vehicles alone use more oil products than any other nation on earth .. in toto.
Our vehicles alone burn more than 1-1/2 times the entire output of S. Arabia ( 9-10 mmbpd )
Hold the anecdotes! Old cars cost money to keep on the road otherwise there wouldn't be so many repair shops.
I think buying a very new high tech fuel-efficient car and keeping it 7-9 years makes sense. It's when people buy and sell their new cars so quickly that it's not smart thinking IMO.
Any sudden short falls in petroleum will hurt us more than a nation that uses very little because the population is walking ( 3rd world ) - or using mass transit ( Europe )
Our vehicles account for about 2/3 of our national oil consumption ( 14 mmbpd / 20.5 mmbpd )
Our vehicles alone use more oil products than any other nation on earth .. in toto.
Our vehicles alone burn more than 1-1/2 times the entire output of S. Arabia ( 9-10 mmbpd )
At least we still extract/produce liquid fuels in this country... unlike most of Europe or Japan. It's tough being a car enthusiast and believing that we need to conserve oil. I really doubt that global oil production will ever hit 90 mmbpd. It just seems to me that depletion rates will counter new projects coming online and that major exporters, like S. Arabia and Russia will have increasing internal demand cutting into their exports.
Case in point is Mexico where exports are falling due to both declining production and increasing internal demand. At present decline rates Mexico will have ceased all exports within nine years. Where will the U.S. make up for that short fall? Iraq?...
My current car is an Audi A4 with a chipped 2 liter engine, which actually gets pretty good mileage. As a car nut, I'm pretty hot on the new Evo but I just can't resolve purchasing one considering that it will probably be a gas pig. Wish those nifty Euro diesel engine options would come to the U.S. sooner
True, except that there are no small hybrids or diesels available in the US market today.
Go buy a $5K car, put the $20K in a money market at 5% and you'll get a $1,000 to put towards gas.
That will save money, but it won't reduce your gasoline usage by any significant amount.
No, a 5 year old car is fairly inexpensive to maintain - tires, brakes, a $50 battery, a few light bulbs, radiator flush, maybe a few hundred for a starter or alternator. You're talking a few thousand dollars. And if you know which end of a screwdriver to use, and buy a $100 jack ...
True but a 5 year old car becomes more expensive to maintain much faster than a new car. In 5 years that 5 year old car will be ten years old requiring a lot more maintence.
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
And in a few months there will be the advanced Jetta TDI's - again relatively small on the road. And I bet that carries over to the Rabbit in a year or two.
I have seen these types of small cars which are capable of getting 50mpg, but have never physically seen a Smart on a road or dealer. You shouldn't get too wrapped up in a hype on a supposedly great idea - the Smart could be as well received and as much of a transportation solution as the Segway.
That's a great theory, but the reality is that almost NO ONE pays cash for their cars, so the premise is flawed. How many people do you know that write a $25,000 check for a car, especially when they can get financed for 0%-3%?
For example, I bought a Honda Civic Hybrid in May. I put ZERO down, and financed the full amount @ 2.9%. Meanwhile, I'm earning 4.2% on my money market account. So I'm actually getting PAID to use Honda's money to buy my car.
As for used cars vs. new, I learned my lesson during my teens and early 20s about used; there's usually something wrong with 'em, and that's why the owners are selling 'em.
And it's not so much the expense of the repairs after the car breaks down, it's the inconvenience and even danger of the breakdown in the first place that keeps me buying new. I don't want to get stranded on some desert highway in Arizona, or some country road in Texas, or on I-15 on the way to Las Vegas. I don't want to see whatever plans I had trashed, while I wait for a tow truck, then spend the next day getting bent over by some small town mechanic who swears that it'll cost $450 to replace my Johnson Rod.
Talk about penny wise and pound foolish.
Also not part of our argument here is the fact that many people "nurse" 5 to 8 year old cars but these cars are not capable of the distances, speed and work levels of newer cars.
I've been borrowing my friends 2000 Corolla and believe me, it's tired. He thinks it's a GREAT car because it doesn't break down. I think it needs an immediate $3,000....tires, shocks, brakes and rotors, oil leak, no dome light, cracked tail light lens, leaking mufflerleaking, broken seat adjuster, no overdrive, very slow electric windows. His cleaning lady is dying to buy it off him, and so "the beater does go on"!!
But it's nothing like a new car, not even close.
"A seat for every butt".
I've already driven it, and it does what I want it to do. It also weighs and costs less than a Prius or a Jetta, and I don't need the back seat or trunk.
Go buy a $5K car, put the $20K in a money market at 5% and you'll get a $1,000 to put towards gas.
That will save money, but it won't reduce your gasoline usage by any significant amount.
This is a great point because there are two separate issues here, both of which have to be addressed.
1) Our individual 'cost of transportation'. It includes vehicle cost, fuel, insurance, repairs. It's similar to Edmunds TCO but it also includes used vehicle which Edmunds does not address. If the goal is to keep the cost of transportation as low as possible we should all be purchasing/driving older used vehicles. The vehicle cost is the largest part of the driving expense. This implies that as gas goes up the sales of new vehicles no matter what they are may go down; people will keep their current ( probably paid off ) vehicles and just drive them into the ground. Or when they do need another look at a $5000 or $10000 vehicle iso a $25000 one.
2) However the current older vehicles on the road or used vehicles which might be bought are presumably using older technology which isn't as efficient as the newest. Driving older technology does not help us as a nation to hold down our personal petroleum usage. Whether one drives a 16 mpg 2007 truck or a 14 mpg 1996 truck doesn't matter to the nation as a whole. One depletes our fuel nearly as fast as the other.
The only flaw I see is that most car deals for 0%-2.9% interest are an either or option. Many times you can get an additional $1500 off in lieu of low interest. I bought my Kubota tractor with 0% interest and found that a good deal. I have always been able to squeeze a lower price on a vehicle by not using their come-on interest rates.
I know many people that do not lease that pay cash for vehicles. My wife has never bought a vehicle on time in 40 years. She would save her pennies until she had the money.
An average family of 4 who can only afford 1 or 2 vehicles is not going to choose a Smart. A single person in a city might, or someone who can afford the family vehicle + a commuter Smart.
My wife has spent right at $18k on maintenance and repairs for her 1990 LS400 Lexus since it was new. That includes service, tires, brakes etc etc. It would have been a lot less if she had found a good independent repair shop 10 years ago. The car runs great. It is now our backup car for family emergencies.
We agree, that a new car is pretty much money down the toilet. I still buy into a new vehicle from time to time, usually regret it 6 months later.