They MIGHT price it under $20,000, but probably not much. Remember, the Insight cost $20 grand, and that was BEFORE gas cost $3 (or $3.50, or $4.00 ... whatever it is this week).
I believe the Insight cost Honda roughly $30k to build. They wanted to be first with the highest mileage. They won that match. Lost the hybrid game to Toyota. The insight was loaded with lots of exotic metals for weight reduction. Whatever Honda sells in a hybrid this time will make them money or will not be for sale. By the time their next hybrid hits the dealers I imagine the tax credits for Honda will be just about diminished to nothing. How many Civic hybrids have they sold to date?
The oil won't simply run out one day. It will become gradually less common and much more expensive, and at some point we'll start making that stuff out of tree bark or soybeans or whaever costs less. Right now it's made from oil because that is the cheapest way to do it.
What this means is that oil/gasoline is becoming slightly less expensive to the majority of the globe, which then means demand goes up, and the price will go up. When all these adjustments kick-in, you have the continuing trend where oil and gasoline will hardly go up in Europe and Asia, while the U.S. consumer will be seeing much steeper increases.
When you see the $ devaluing, just increase the cost of anything imported accordingly (of course this isn't true if the manufacturer holds the price and sets less profit to keep sales up; but that isn't true with oil or gold, or copper and commodities like that).
So many things are made of plastic. The keyboard and mouse we are using are plastic...most product packaging....medical equipment (IV tubing, syringes, etc), toothbrushes....etc, etc, etc....all plastic....which ultimately comes from OIL..... The price of so many common things is affected by the price of OIL.....Not to mention the associated cost of shipping all this "stuff" from where it is made to where it will be bought. What happens 20, 30, 40 years from now if all the OIL is gone? I guess we'd need to 100% recycle all plastics.....
Mining old landfills comes to mind. Its not like the stuff will ever go away
It may not go away, but it does deteriorate, break down, change its chemical composition, and combine with other chemicals to come up with flavors Mother Nature never intended! It might not be that easy to dig buried plastics out of a landfill, but in the future, it may become a more feasible alternative.
What happens 20, 30, 40 years from now if all the OIL is gone? I guess we'd need to 100% recycle all plastics.....
Well it's a little more complicated then that. You can't very easily go from polymerized plastics like polypropylene, styrene, polyester, back to oil. And there's an energy-penalty - entropy. Entropy is a physical law that basically states that if you run a chemical reaction - say burn 5 grams of gasoline and get 5 units of energy, if you want to put the byproducts back together to make gasoline again, you'll need > 5 units of energy to do so.
It's the chemical version of "you can't have a perpetual motion machine".
We'll use coal for oil, long before we try to convert plastics back to oil.
How many of you are changing your summer driving plans figuring gas is going to be near $4/gal? I'm not. I just booked my annual trip to the beach, and I'm planning a trip to the Canadian Gran Prix, and a nice whitewater rafting trip.
I'm also backsliding on my distance to work. Because of high town taxes (avbout 3X) higher I'm thinking of going from a 4 mile commute to a 20 mile commute. It's in a very snowy area, so maybe something fairly economical (4x4) like a Jeep Patriot.
Well it's a little more complicated then that. You can't very easily go from polymerized plastics like polypropylene, styrene, polyester, back to oil. And there's an energy-penalty - entropy. Entropy is a physical law that basically states that if you run a chemical reaction - say burn 5 grams of gasoline and get 5 units of energy, if you want to put the byproducts back together to make gasoline again, you'll need > 5 units of energy to do so.
I'm no scientist or chemist .....what will we do for plastics 40 years from now if there is no oil? That is my question...seems like almost anything you touch in the modern world is made out of plastics...would we have to go back to glass, steel, cotton, wool, etc? (I'm not talking about turning plastic back into oil to make gasoline)
There will still be a lot of oil produced in 2050 (some forecast more than today, some a bit less), but if current consumption trends (increases, especially in countries outside the EU/USA/Japan) it may not be as much as the world would like to use. So there will be oil for plastics (at a higher price) but transportation supplies will be tight.
I'm no scientist or chemist .....what will we do for plastics 40 years from now if there is no oil? That is my question...
I'm a chemical engineer. When people say we'll be out of oil in 40 years, they are referring to the point that easy to get at reserves will be doen 50+% or more. And that number of 40 years is very debateable, as what is recoverable changes.
Before that happens though is becomes economical to make coal into oil. This is happening and will expand if companies feel the price of oil will stay high long-term. Canada and the U.S. are set for at least 100+ years.
Now in the meantime consider that technology is advancing exponentially, not linearly. So just like we think the technology of 1850 and burning whale-oil is quaint, and can't believe that people haven't discovered oil for energy; in 40 years or so we may look back at this time and think "how could we miss that energy source". Considering that we don't actually know 1) what causes gravity, or 2) where most of the matter in the universe is, or 3) what "Dark energy" is really about - only that it's making the universe expand, there is a lot of potential out there for discovery.
If we want to do something useful to solve the energy issue not just for 40 years, I'd support CERN and subatomic research, and fusion development. We're not going to solve running low on oil or other fossil fuels by getting 35mpg instead of 25mpg.
Ol' Henry Ford was way ahead of us. From the Ford Museum web site: "Many people ask us about Henry Ford's experiments with making plastic parts for automobiles in the early 1940s. These experiments resulted in what was described as a "plastic car made from soybeans". Although this automobile never made it into the museum's collections, we thought we would address the myriad questions we receive about this unique and fascinating vehicle."
Re: backsliding to a longer commute: I had to consider property taxes when I planned my move. I moved from the country to near the big city. Luckily, my gas savings will be about 2 1/2 times my property tax increase, and being near civilization and fire stations in the new house, my homeowner's insurance will be quite a bit lower too. The higher tax area offers some amenities to make up for the taxes, but at one point last May, my monthly gas bill blew through $700 and there was nothing I could do about it.
We do have known reserves of Oil Shale that amount to many times the known reserves of the Middle East. The question is how much will it cost to use it. Several projects were started in the late 1970s with that oil squeeze. When the cheap oil supply returned the projects were dropped.
Although oil shale resources occur in many countries, only 33 countries possess deposits of possible economic value. The largest deposits in the world are found in the United States in the Green River basin, which covers portions of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming; about 70 % of this resource is located on federally-owned or managed land. Total world resources of oil shale were estimated in 2005 at 411 gigatons (411 x 109 tonnes), which is enough to yield 2.8 to 3.3 trillion (2.8 to 3.3 x 1012) U.S. barrels Among those, the United States accounts for 62 % of world resources; together, the United States, Russia and Brazil account for 86 % of the world's resources in terms of shale oil content
At $100 per barrel my guess, we should be gearing up to develop the resource pretty soon. Of course Clinton may have locked up much of it to endear himself to the environmentalist groups.
Turning coal or shale oil into oil is not an environmentally friendly process. To pursue this route is not just a matter of how much a barrel of oil costs but also a matter of priorities. I've read a lot about how Canada is expanding it's shale oil capacity. It sounds like an environmental disaster in the making.
It sounds like an environmental disaster in the making.
If you think that gun control has met with opposition. Try to take people's personal transportation away. Most and I mean most Americans do not care if we have a big hole in Utah that we are getting our oil from. They will elect the people that will make sure they have a supply of fuel for their cars. I know you and I both would like to see EVs that are practical. Until that happens we are stuck with fossil fuel. Even with the advent of practical EVs we will be using fossil fuel for a sizable share of the charging. Solar is not of much use when people have their EV plugged in over night. Wind will continue to meet opposition from the NIMBY and environmental crowds. Hydro is all but dead in the USA. Nuclear is just not considered worth the risk here, as it is in the rest of the world. We could wake up one morning and be a third world country. With all its negatives I would say coal will keep the lights on in the USA for at least another 100 years.
The largest deposits in the world are found in the United States in the Green River basin
They are in full gearing up mode it seems. I did a section of the Green River a couple of years ago and there was lots of exploration activity on the way to the put-in. And we drove through the northern part of the region over this past Thanksgiving. The McDonalds in Vernal, UT was having so much trouble keeping workers at $10 that they shut down for "remodeling." Or so we were told.
"read a lot about how Canada is expanding it's shale oil capacity"
The Canadians have tar sands, that's where their big activity is. It's just like it sounds, sand soaked in heavy oil, dig it up, clean out the tar, upgrade it, and there you go. Oil shale's harder, it's trapped in solid rock, so additional heat and treatment is required to separate it. With both processes you also end up with lots of spent sand or shale.
I watched a press conference clip of President Bush today talking about something or other and then a reporter asked about the prediction that we'll have $4 gasoline by midsummer. He seemed completely surprised by that possibility.
Yeah, I saw the same video. It's an act. All presidents know exactly what the price of oil is, what mortgage rates are, etc. In a capitalist society, it's all about the economy.
I think Bush's routine is to act like the price of gas is no big deal, as if that might influence people not to worry about it. He learned it from his dad. Remember G.H.W. Bush's famous line from 1991 -- "What recession?"
Unfortunately, it didn't work, and neither will the "I didn't know" response about $4 gas. But it doesn't really matter for W. Unlike his dad, he's not running for president again.
But he definitely knows what the price of gas is, and where it's going. Not just because he has what the media calls 'close ties to the oil industry,' but also because he's from north Texas.
I live in Dallas, and we have so much oil money flowing here, the attitude truly is "what recession?" For example, the Cowboys are building a brand new stadium. Season tickets for the lower bowl cost $20,000 to $150,000, plus $340 per seat per game (and they're selling fast). Another example; the state has a budget surplus of several billion dollars. In other words, we have so much money even the politicians can't spend it. It's all from oil.
So the president knows. And if he forgets, he just has to read today's newspaper:
Oil Tops $103
Light, sweet crude for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange jumped to a new trading record of $103.05 a barrel in electronic trading before slipping back to $102.07.
"It seems that further interest rate cuts, additional dollar weakness and more investment buying will anchor oil to higher prices," energy risk management firm Cameron Hanover said in its daily report. "It can't go on forever, but it looks like it can go on for a while."
The Japanese government on Friday urged the oil cartel OPEC to increase output to help ease record prices.
"The high crude prices are gradually damaging the global economy. This will damage the economies of oil-producing countries," Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Akira Amari said.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries holds its next policy meeting on March 5. It is likely to decide to keep current production levels unchanged, or even cut production, according to reported comments by OPEC President Chakib Khelil. .
I have to ask this. Who's paying for their stadium--for the construction? The Cowboys organization/owners or some political entity who's building it for them out of taxpayer money?
I've read a lot about how Canada is expanding it's shale oil capacity. It sounds like an environmental disaster in the making.
Well we all need to share in the environmental disaster that is a consequence of modern life. Why should the Middle East or other certain areas be the only ones?
I've been to the West, and looking at a map of Canada, I can't see where much would be disturbed, or many people affected. I consider recreation and sightseeing as secondary importance to obtaining resources. One could argue that if oil and gas are not available the whole purpose of setting areas aside for recreation becomes irrelevant. And there is precedent of changing the environment - consider all the land we have converted to population centers or to agricultural purposes to support our lives.
If you took a poll here though you will find very few people who have ever visited these vast conservation areas, or if they have visited have barely ventured into them. Steve might be the exception. So lets get out the IMAX cameras, make some nice footage, and then we can dig these areas up and get our resources. (wow that ought to get some activity!).
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries holds its next policy meeting on March 5. It is likely to decide to keep current production levels unchanged, or even cut production, according to reported comments by OPEC President Chakib Khelil.
Yes with the dollar falling in value, and oil being priced in dollars, then yes they want the price to increase, as they are purchasing things globally. This is definitely more a problem in the U.S. then elsewhere.
"Who's paying for their stadium--for the construction?"
This is from Wikipedia:
The (Cowboy's) stadium construction cost is in excess of $1 billion, which will make it one of the most expensive sports venues ever built.[3]
To aid owner/general manager Jerry Jones in paying the construction costs of the new stadium, Arlington voters approved the increase of the city's sales tax by one-half of a percent, the hotel occupancy tax by 2 percent, and car rental tax by 5 percent.
The City of Arlington will provide $325 million in funding, and Jones will cover any cost overruns. Also, the NFL will provide the Cowboys with an additional $150 million.[4]
In other words, the taxpayers will pay 33%, the NFL will pay 15%, and the owner will pay the rest. However, between season ticket and skybox sales, Jones will recoup his end immediately, and might actually make a profit on the stadium construction.
>taxpayers will pay 33%, the NFL will pay 15%, and the owner will pay the rest. However, between season ticket and skybox sales, Jones will recoup his end immediately,
Slightly off topic...In Cincy the County raised sales taxes to build stadium for Bengals and signed an agreement to guaratee the gate to the owners if the seats aren't filled. What a sweetheart deal. State also kicked in an amount of tens of millions. After many years local politicians figuring out that they didn't sign a very good deal, for the taxpayers at least. Sports arenas should be built by team owners.
So lets get out the IMAX cameras, make some nice footage, and then we can dig these areas up and get our resources.
That's pretty much what's happening. Purchases of hunting and fishing licenses are falling fast, the kids play Guitar Hero and it's a wonder Backpacker Magazine survives since few people engage in that activity any more. The bush subsistence lifestyle in North America is fading fast - those kids may as well live in the Bronx.
Staying home playing on your Wii sure saves on your gasoline bill though.
Your last paragraph pretty much sums up the entire oil industry in a nutshell. They could give a rat's [non-permissible content removed] what high prices are doing to the world's economy unless it's affecting their bottom dollar.
You can win a Wii at Inside Line and quit wasting gas on entertainment options.
The Car Stock Exchange (CSX) is a prediction game for new automobiles. Players guess how quickly new cars and trucks will sell in the U.S., and buy the "stocks" representing the models that they expect will sell well. The price of each stock represents the crowds' estimate of unit sales for each vehicle. If you think the stock price of one vehicle is too low, then buy. If you think the stock price is too high, then sell.
Joining the CSX is completely free and involves no real money. When you sign up, you'll receive CSX$1,000,000 to start trading.
Well we all need to share in the environmental disaster that is a consequence of modern life.
I couldn't disagree more. That statement implies that improving the standard of living and protecting the environment are mutually exclusive. I actually believe that it's possible to do both. In fact I don't think it is possible to have a high standard of living in a toxic environment.
My understanding of that rule is that it's per manufacturer, so once the Civic Hybrid hits the production threshold, any new Honda hyrbrid won't have the tax credit....(but hey I could be wrong)....
Prius never missed a beat after the tax credits were gone late last summer. Prius, as you may have heard, had a record year!
Honda has specifically promised that their new small hybrid will base under $20K. Obviously, that could be manufacturer-speak for $19,995. But with an increasing diversity of hybrids in the line-up, I think the likelihood of any one of them getting huge dealer mark-ups decreases.
Further to your good point not only was it a good year, record year in fact, but the quarter before the credits ended Toyota reduced the prices on the Prius by $2000 to $800 per model depending on equipment. Sales skyrocketed...
Effectively the buyers lost nothing even with the phase out. What the IRS didn't give the buyers Toyota did....depending on model of course.
Here's one solution...prohibit petroleum products from being used up as fuel. It's burned up and it's gone.
Our usage today is 20.5 MM bpd...in 15 yrs our usage will be 26+ MM bpd. 14+ MM bpd today are burned up and spent as fuel; 6.5 MM bpd are used for everything else including plastics, tires, etc, etc. These can all be recycled if necessary. Spent fuel cannot.
The economy is getting worse in so many ways. One thing is certain. We will gradually continue to increase our oil consumption in the US, as time goes on. This is regardless of alternative energy development and will hold true 30 years from now. 3 million people enter this country annually through birth or immigration. That's a lot of energy consumers. One day we are told that 30 Million children in this country do not have basic health care. Their family car is probably not a Prius. Will the descendents of the immigrants who built this country from nothing, one day be just workers that supply the food from American farms that feeds the Middle East because the Middle East was able to buy America with it's oil proceeds? Do you know that our $4 trillion national debt is LESS than two days oil consumption by the US at $101 a barrel? Instead of figuring how to improve efficiency by 1 or 2%, or instead of draining our finite aquifers to grow ethanol, we need to get the price of oil cut to restore the economy of the working class in America. Bases in Iraq are a start. That was George's idea. Any better ones out there?
I can't see where much would be disturbed, or many people affected. I consider recreation and sightseeing as secondary importance to obtaining resources. One could argue that if oil and gas are not available the whole purpose of setting areas aside for recreation becomes irrelevant.
It is a bit like the building of Glen Canyon Dam in that approximate area. The Sierra Club fought it tooth and nail. Claiming there was enough coal in the canyon to power the nation for thousands of years. The selling point for Lake Powell was twofold. It opened the canyon to boating and recreation and provided hydro power. The hydro is less than great and now there is a HUGE coal fired plant that supplies a lot of power. They use the water from the lake in the process. The lake is a big success with recreational boaters.
I don't know much about oil shale. If it leaves a big hole in the ground we can have another lake for irrigation & recreation. I agree that survival is more important than having wide open spaces saved for what? There is a difference between digging a hole for natural resources and dumping toxic waste. They do not have to go hand in hand. After 25 years in the Alaska oil field I found companies like BP more conscientious about the environment than many contractors and builders here in CA. We had to go every year and take an 8 hour class on environmental issues before we could drive onto the BP leases. How many cars and trucks do you see on the road with a diaper? We had to carry a plastic dam to slide under the truck whenever it was parked or when filling the tank. BP has security people to make sure you comply.
We can get oil and other resources in an environmentally safe way. Will the place be the same. Maybe better. I know the caribou like it around the gravel pads and pipeline in Alaska.
The lake is a big success with recreational boaters
You mean recreational power boaters. When the marina isn't high and dry anyway. Ever been to Bullfrog? The north ramp is closed while they extend the concrete ramp 300' to get to the water. Grand Canyon rafters can't even take out at Hite anymore. Meanwhile the lake is slowly filling with sediment (with heavy metal in it) and there are huge evaporation losses. link
And BP - "Last November, BP executives walked into Anchorage Federal Court to plead guilty to violating the Clean Water Act." And now the State of Alaska is getting ready to sue BP for several hundred million dollars the state lost in oil revenues when BP's corrosion problems shut down a big part of Prudhoe Bay two years ago. link
Your guys in Calif must really be awful if BP is making them look good. :P
I have to admit that BP did not keep close tabs on their piping around the field. It did not cause dramatic environmental damage. It did cause interruptions in the flow of oil. That is what the state is concerned about. You can dump toxic waste and get less of a lawsuit than cutting tax revenues from the oil flow. Politicians are interested in that oil revenue.
Lake Powell is for power boaters. Kayaks and canoes are a small niche market. I did my canoe period in the early 1970s. Give me a big ole pontoon boat and a can a worms for bait. I would like to explore Lake Powell someday. Kind of expensive with the high price of fuel. A 50 foot motor sailer would be nice for Lake Powell. When was the last time you paddled a kayak or canoe 150 miles, the length of Lake Powell?
Flop a kayak on the deck for reaching the side canyons.
Let's see, I think it was '01 that I spent 3 weeks floating the Grand - took out a week above Hite, although most of the group kept going to the lake. 226 river miles for us. 330 miles over 3 weeks in a canoe on the Nahanni was our longest paddle - ten days is plenty methinks. Other than a couple of brief trips into Quetico, I never was much for lake paddling, and I really don't want a putt-putt interfering with the sounds of the birds and the riffles.
Your guys in Calif must really be awful if BP is making them look good.
I watch the crap they are building for strip malls and homes and can feel my uncle rolling over in his grave. It is pathetic what they use for even commercial buildings. They will not be fit for use in 20 years. When they build something knowing full well that it will be deteriorating in 20 years, that is planned obsolescence. Of course the people putting up the money are only interested in renting space NOW to Borders Books and Old Navy. They will have skimmed all the profit in 10 years and head to the Bahamas. That to me is worse than digging a hole in the wasteland of Utah to produce oil that we need.
The worst part is the excavation and erosion. We are getting our once every 10 years rain this year. Many of the new projects are washing into the storm drains.
Here are the estimates... We are now about 300 million ( maybe 200+ million of us are drivers ) By the late 2020's we will be 400 million with maybe as many as 300 million drivers.
That's about a 50% increase needed in the fuel that we will use. ....Today we use 20.5 MM bpd of petro-products, 14 MM bpd go toward transportation; by the end of the 20's we will need about 30 MM bpd of which we will need 21 MM bpd.
That 50% increase in drivers ( vehicles on the road ) also means that we will need a 50% increase in the 'flow of the roads'. 'Flow of the roads'? Consider today's roads and how many drivers are on them, 3-4-5-6 lanes wide. With 50% more drivers the roads will have to be 50% wider or the length of traffic on our existing roads will be at least 50% longer. Sitting, sitting, sitting, longer, longer and longer. Sitting going nowhere is obviously the worst use of fuel.
What percent of this driving is commuters? Probably over 60%. We need to think of alternatives. I mentioned several hundred posts back that more of us need to telecommute at least part of the time if possible. Also, car-pooling and public transportation need to be used more.
Our entire style of working, living and spending free time may have to change dramatically.
How about having all companies work three shifts. It is a worldwide economy afterall so having office workers on the graveyard shift will allow us to be in contact with Asia and Europe during their working hours. It will also spread out the workforce over 24 hours rather than a very high concentration of workers between 8AM and 5 PM.
Telecommuting certainly will be a big part of a lot of specialty occupations.
I worked swings and mids the first few years in Alaska. That was how seniority works. Low man gets the crap shifts. Though I did like swings, volunteered for a couple years. Great driving to work and home. No traffic. I cannot imagine sitting in gridlocked traffic with the engine idling at $4 per gallon.
Comments
I believe the Insight cost Honda roughly $30k to build. They wanted to be first with the highest mileage. They won that match. Lost the hybrid game to Toyota. The insight was loaded with lots of exotic metals for weight reduction. Whatever Honda sells in a hybrid this time will make them money or will not be for sale. By the time their next hybrid hits the dealers I imagine the tax credits for Honda will be just about diminished to nothing. How many Civic hybrids have they sold to date?
What this means is that oil/gasoline is becoming slightly less expensive to the majority of the globe, which then means demand goes up, and the price will go up. When all these adjustments kick-in, you have the continuing trend where oil and gasoline will hardly go up in Europe and Asia, while the U.S. consumer will be seeing much steeper increases.
When you see the $ devaluing, just increase the cost of anything imported accordingly (of course this isn't true if the manufacturer holds the price and sets less profit to keep sales up; but that isn't true with oil or gold, or copper and commodities like that).
It may not go away, but it does deteriorate, break down, change its chemical composition, and combine with other chemicals to come up with flavors Mother Nature never intended! It might not be that easy to dig buried plastics out of a landfill, but in the future, it may become a more feasible alternative.
Well it's a little more complicated then that. You can't very easily go from polymerized plastics like polypropylene, styrene, polyester, back to oil. And there's an energy-penalty - entropy. Entropy is a physical law that basically states that if you run a chemical reaction - say burn 5 grams of gasoline and get 5 units of energy, if you want to put the byproducts back together to make gasoline again, you'll need > 5 units of energy to do so.
It's the chemical version of "you can't have a perpetual motion machine".
We'll use coal for oil, long before we try to convert plastics back to oil.
How many of you are changing your summer driving plans figuring gas is going to be near $4/gal? I'm not. I just booked my annual trip to the beach, and I'm planning a trip to the Canadian Gran Prix, and a nice whitewater rafting trip.
I'm also backsliding on my distance to work. Because of high town taxes (avbout 3X) higher I'm thinking of going from a 4 mile commute to a 20 mile commute. It's in a very snowy area, so maybe something fairly economical (4x4) like a Jeep Patriot.
I'm no scientist or chemist .....what will we do for plastics 40 years from now if there is no oil? That is my question...seems like almost anything you touch in the modern world is made out of plastics...would we have to go back to glass, steel, cotton, wool, etc? (I'm not talking about turning plastic back into oil to make gasoline)
Toyota has a biotech plant that makes polyactide from sugar cane.
Here in the US I'm sure we'll be using resin of corn for making plastic and dumping more money into ADM's coffers. :P
PLASTIC FROM PLANTS
I'm a chemical engineer. When people say we'll be out of oil in 40 years, they are referring to the point that easy to get at reserves will be doen 50+% or more. And that number of 40 years is very debateable, as what is recoverable changes.
Before that happens though is becomes economical to make coal into oil. This is happening and will expand if companies feel the price of oil will stay high long-term. Canada and the U.S. are set for at least 100+ years.
Now in the meantime consider that technology is advancing exponentially, not linearly. So just like we think the technology of 1850 and burning whale-oil is quaint, and can't believe that people haven't discovered oil for energy; in 40 years or so we may look back at this time and think "how could we miss that energy source". Considering that we don't actually know 1) what causes gravity, or 2) where most of the matter in the universe is, or 3) what "Dark energy" is really about - only that it's making the universe expand, there is a lot of potential out there for discovery.
If we want to do something useful to solve the energy issue not just for 40 years, I'd support CERN and subatomic research, and fusion development. We're not going to solve running low on oil or other fossil fuels by getting 35mpg instead of 25mpg.
"Many people ask us about Henry Ford's experiments with making plastic parts for automobiles in the early 1940s. These experiments resulted in what was described as a "plastic car made from soybeans". Although this automobile never made it into the museum's collections, we thought we would address the myriad questions we receive about this unique and fascinating vehicle."
You can read more here!
I had to consider property taxes when I planned my move. I moved from the country to near the big city. Luckily, my gas savings will be about 2 1/2 times my property tax increase, and being near civilization and fire stations in the new house, my homeowner's insurance will be quite a bit lower too. The higher tax area offers some amenities to make up for the taxes, but at one point last May, my monthly gas bill blew through $700 and there was nothing I could do about it.
Weren't they the same "experts" who said that global cooling would send the planet into a new ice age?
.
Although oil shale resources occur in many countries, only 33 countries possess deposits of possible economic value. The largest deposits in the world are found in the United States in the Green River basin, which covers portions of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming; about 70 % of this resource is located on federally-owned or managed land. Total world resources of oil shale were estimated in 2005 at 411 gigatons (411 x 109 tonnes), which is enough to yield 2.8 to 3.3 trillion (2.8 to 3.3 x 1012) U.S. barrels Among those, the United States accounts for 62 % of world resources; together, the United States, Russia and Brazil account for 86 % of the world's resources in terms of shale oil content
At $100 per barrel my guess, we should be gearing up to develop the resource pretty soon. Of course Clinton may have locked up much of it to endear himself to the environmentalist groups.
If you think that gun control has met with opposition. Try to take people's personal transportation away. Most and I mean most Americans do not care if we have a big hole in Utah that we are getting our oil from. They will elect the people that will make sure they have a supply of fuel for their cars. I know you and I both would like to see EVs that are practical. Until that happens we are stuck with fossil fuel. Even with the advent of practical EVs we will be using fossil fuel for a sizable share of the charging. Solar is not of much use when people have their EV plugged in over night. Wind will continue to meet opposition from the NIMBY and environmental crowds. Hydro is all but dead in the USA. Nuclear is just not considered worth the risk here, as it is in the rest of the world. We could wake up one morning and be a third world country. With all its negatives I would say coal will keep the lights on in the USA for at least another 100 years.
They are in full gearing up mode it seems. I did a section of the Green River a couple of years ago and there was lots of exploration activity on the way to the put-in. And we drove through the northern part of the region over this past Thanksgiving. The McDonalds in Vernal, UT was having so much trouble keeping workers at $10 that they shut down for "remodeling." Or so we were told.
The Canadians have tar sands, that's where their big activity is. It's just like it sounds, sand soaked in heavy oil, dig it up, clean out the tar, upgrade it, and there you go. Oil shale's harder, it's trapped in solid rock, so additional heat and treatment is required to separate it. With both processes you also end up with lots of spent sand or shale.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
I think Bush's routine is to act like the price of gas is no big deal, as if that might influence people not to worry about it. He learned it from his dad. Remember G.H.W. Bush's famous line from 1991 -- "What recession?"
Unfortunately, it didn't work, and neither will the "I didn't know" response about $4 gas. But it doesn't really matter for W. Unlike his dad, he's not running for president again.
But he definitely knows what the price of gas is, and where it's going. Not just because he has what the media calls 'close ties to the oil industry,' but also because he's from north Texas.
I live in Dallas, and we have so much oil money flowing here, the attitude truly is "what recession?" For example, the Cowboys are building a brand new stadium. Season tickets for the lower bowl cost $20,000 to $150,000, plus $340 per seat per game (and they're selling fast). Another example; the state has a budget surplus of several billion dollars. In other words, we have so much money even the politicians can't spend it. It's all from oil.
So the president knows. And if he forgets, he just has to read today's newspaper:
Oil Tops $103
Light, sweet crude for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange jumped to a new trading record of $103.05 a barrel in electronic trading before slipping back to $102.07.
"It seems that further interest rate cuts, additional dollar weakness and more investment buying will anchor oil to higher prices," energy risk management firm Cameron Hanover said in its daily report. "It can't go on forever, but it looks like it can go on for a while."
The Japanese government on Friday urged the oil cartel OPEC to increase output to help ease record prices.
"The high crude prices are gradually damaging the global economy. This will damage the economies of oil-producing countries," Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Akira Amari said.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries holds its next policy meeting on March 5. It is likely to decide to keep current production levels unchanged, or even cut production, according to reported comments by OPEC President Chakib Khelil.
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I have to ask this. Who's paying for their stadium--for the construction? The Cowboys organization/owners or some political entity who's building it for them out of taxpayer money?
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Well we all need to share in the environmental disaster that is a consequence of modern life.
I've been to the West, and looking at a map of Canada, I can't see where much would be disturbed, or many people affected. I consider recreation and sightseeing as secondary importance to obtaining resources. One could argue that if oil and gas are not available the whole purpose of setting areas aside for recreation becomes irrelevant. And there is precedent of changing the environment - consider all the land we have converted to population centers or to agricultural purposes to support our lives.
If you took a poll here though you will find very few people who have ever visited these vast conservation areas, or if they have visited have barely ventured into them. Steve might be the exception. So lets get out the IMAX cameras, make some nice footage, and then we can dig these areas up and get our resources. (wow that ought to get some activity!).
Yes with the dollar falling in value, and oil being priced in dollars, then yes they want the price to increase, as they are purchasing things globally. This is definitely more a problem in the U.S. then elsewhere.
This is from Wikipedia:
The (Cowboy's) stadium construction cost is in excess of $1 billion, which will make it one of the most expensive sports venues ever built.[3]
To aid owner/general manager Jerry Jones in paying the construction costs of the new stadium, Arlington voters approved the increase of the city's sales tax by one-half of a percent, the hotel occupancy tax by 2 percent, and car rental tax by 5 percent.
The City of Arlington will provide $325 million in funding, and Jones will cover any cost overruns. Also, the NFL will provide the Cowboys with an additional $150 million.[4]
In other words, the taxpayers will pay 33%, the NFL will pay 15%, and the owner will pay the rest. However, between season ticket and skybox sales, Jones will recoup his end immediately, and might actually make a profit on the stadium construction.
Hey, you don't get rich by losing money.
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Slightly off topic...In Cincy the County raised sales taxes to build stadium for Bengals and signed an agreement to guaratee the gate to the owners if the seats aren't filled. What a sweetheart deal. State also kicked in an amount of tens of millions. After many years local politicians figuring out that they didn't sign a very good deal, for the taxpayers at least. Sports arenas should be built by team owners.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
That's pretty much what's happening. Purchases of hunting and fishing licenses are falling fast, the kids play Guitar Hero and it's a wonder Backpacker Magazine survives since few people engage in that activity any more. The bush subsistence lifestyle in North America is fading fast - those kids may as well live in the Bronx.
Staying home playing on your Wii sure saves on your gasoline bill though.
The Car Stock Exchange (CSX) is a prediction game for new automobiles. Players guess how quickly new cars and trucks will sell in the U.S., and buy the "stocks" representing the models that they expect will sell well. The price of each stock represents the crowds' estimate of unit sales for each vehicle. If you think the stock price of one vehicle is too low, then buy. If you think the stock price is too high, then sell.
Joining the CSX is completely free and involves no real money. When you sign up, you'll receive CSX$1,000,000 to start trading.
Car Stock Exchange
I couldn't disagree more. That statement implies that improving the standard of living and protecting the environment are mutually exclusive. I actually believe that it's possible to do both. In fact I don't think it is possible to have a high standard of living in a toxic environment.
Correct.
Honda has specifically promised that their new small hybrid will base under $20K. Obviously, that could be manufacturer-speak for $19,995. But with an increasing diversity of hybrids in the line-up, I think the likelihood of any one of them getting huge dealer mark-ups decreases.
Further to your good point not only was it a good year, record year in fact, but the quarter before the credits ended Toyota reduced the prices on the Prius by $2000 to $800 per model depending on equipment. Sales skyrocketed...
Effectively the buyers lost nothing even with the phase out. What the IRS didn't give the buyers Toyota did....depending on model of course.
Our usage today is 20.5 MM bpd...in 15 yrs our usage will be 26+ MM bpd.
14+ MM bpd today are burned up and spent as fuel;
6.5 MM bpd are used for everything else including plastics, tires, etc, etc. These can all be recycled if necessary. Spent fuel cannot.
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
Do you know that our $4 trillion national debt is LESS than two days oil consumption by the US at $101 a barrel? Instead of figuring how to improve efficiency by 1 or 2%, or instead of draining our finite aquifers to grow ethanol, we need to get the price of oil cut to restore the economy of the working class in America. Bases in Iraq are a start. That was George's idea. Any better ones out there?
It is a bit like the building of Glen Canyon Dam in that approximate area. The Sierra Club fought it tooth and nail. Claiming there was enough coal in the canyon to power the nation for thousands of years. The selling point for Lake Powell was twofold. It opened the canyon to boating and recreation and provided hydro power. The hydro is less than great and now there is a HUGE coal fired plant that supplies a lot of power. They use the water from the lake in the process. The lake is a big success with recreational boaters.
I don't know much about oil shale. If it leaves a big hole in the ground we can have another lake for irrigation & recreation. I agree that survival is more important than having wide open spaces saved for what? There is a difference between digging a hole for natural resources and dumping toxic waste. They do not have to go hand in hand. After 25 years in the Alaska oil field I found companies like BP more conscientious about the environment than many contractors and builders here in CA. We had to go every year and take an 8 hour class on environmental issues before we could drive onto the BP leases. How many cars and trucks do you see on the road with a diaper? We had to carry a plastic dam to slide under the truck whenever it was parked or when filling the tank. BP has security people to make sure you comply.
We can get oil and other resources in an environmentally safe way. Will the place be the same. Maybe better. I know the caribou like it around the gravel pads and pipeline in Alaska.
You mean recreational power boaters. When the marina isn't high and dry anyway. Ever been to Bullfrog? The north ramp is closed while they extend the concrete ramp 300' to get to the water. Grand Canyon rafters can't even take out at Hite anymore. Meanwhile the lake is slowly filling with sediment (with heavy metal in it) and there are huge evaporation losses. link
And BP - "Last November, BP executives walked into Anchorage Federal Court to plead guilty to violating the Clean Water Act." And now the State of Alaska is getting ready to sue BP for several hundred million dollars the state lost in oil revenues when BP's corrosion problems shut down a big part of Prudhoe Bay two years ago. link
Your guys in Calif must really be awful if BP is making them look good. :P
Lake Powell is for power boaters. Kayaks and canoes are a small niche market. I did my canoe period in the early 1970s. Give me a big ole pontoon boat and a can a worms for bait. I would like to explore Lake Powell someday. Kind of expensive with the high price of fuel. A 50 foot motor sailer would be nice for Lake Powell. When was the last time you paddled a kayak or canoe 150 miles, the length of Lake Powell?
Let's see, I think it was '01 that I spent 3 weeks floating the Grand - took out a week above Hite, although most of the group kept going to the lake. 226 river miles for us. 330 miles over 3 weeks in a canoe on the Nahanni was our longest paddle - ten days is plenty methinks. Other than a couple of brief trips into Quetico, I never was much for lake paddling, and I really don't want a putt-putt interfering with the sounds of the birds and the riffles.
I watch the crap they are building for strip malls and homes and can feel my uncle rolling over in his grave. It is pathetic what they use for even commercial buildings. They will not be fit for use in 20 years. When they build something knowing full well that it will be deteriorating in 20 years, that is planned obsolescence. Of course the people putting up the money are only interested in renting space NOW to Borders Books and Old Navy. They will have skimmed all the profit in 10 years and head to the Bahamas. That to me is worse than digging a hole in the wasteland of Utah to produce oil that we need.
The worst part is the excavation and erosion. We are getting our once every 10 years rain this year. Many of the new projects are washing into the storm drains.
I seem to end up looking for good real estate deals when I am vacationing.
We are now about 300 million ( maybe 200+ million of us are drivers )
By the late 2020's we will be 400 million with maybe as many as 300 million drivers.
That's about a 50% increase needed in the fuel that we will use.
....Today we use 20.5 MM bpd of petro-products, 14 MM bpd go toward transportation; by the end of the 20's we will need about 30 MM bpd of which we will need 21 MM bpd.
That 50% increase in drivers ( vehicles on the road ) also means that we will need a 50% increase in the 'flow of the roads'. 'Flow of the roads'?
Consider today's roads and how many drivers are on them, 3-4-5-6 lanes wide. With 50% more drivers the roads will have to be 50% wider or the length of traffic on our existing roads will be at least 50% longer. Sitting, sitting, sitting, longer, longer and longer. Sitting going nowhere is obviously the worst use of fuel.
How about having all companies work three shifts. It is a worldwide economy afterall so having office workers on the graveyard shift will allow us to be in contact with Asia and Europe during their working hours. It will also spread out the workforce over 24 hours rather than a very high concentration of workers between 8AM and 5 PM.
Telecommuting certainly will be a big part of a lot of specialty occupations.
Not necessarily. We have three shifts where I work and some of the old timers with families choose 3rd shift for the 10% shift premium.
During questioning, the men told police they robbed the victim because they needed gas money"
Tourist Robbed For Gas Money (Local6.com)
At least I get a 5% rebate from Shell. So it was actually $47.50.