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http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080805/POLITICS01/808050395
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama said Monday the nation should set a goal of putting 1 million plug-in electric hybrid vehicles on the road by 2015, offering $4 billion in federal aid to meet the ambitious goal.
But auto experts said the expense of meeting such goals will far exceed that amount, and that the plug-in hybrid goal will be difficult, if not impossible, to achieve.
Obama proposed $4 billion in federal loans and loan guarantees to help the automakers meet his goal -- a figure he first mentioned last month in a letter to United Auto Workers leaders -- and a $7,000 tax credit to drivers who buy plug-in hybrids
Actually 1 million is not that many if the price is right and there is a good payback AND gas keeps going up AND someone actually offers them. Camcord sells over 1 million Accords and Camrys every year. And Toyota is also promising a Volt type vehicle at the same time as GM. And if GM sells 5 plug in models by 2012 it should be possible.
The Volt likely will need about 8 kilowatt-hours of energy to recharge, Gross said. The average U.S. utility charges about 10 cents per kilowatt-hour, so it would cost the consumer about 80 cents to go the 40 miles, she said.
Lets do the power math.
Far a compact car:
40 miles/35 mpg x $5/gallon x 360 days = $2000/yr in gas cost for the first 40 miles(run on battery).
For a Volt type vehicle:
$.8 *360=$255 for the first 40 miles
So, $250 to charge up overnight. So a $1750 per year savings x 5 years gives a $8750 savings over a comparable gas vehicle.
Now we have a $30-$40k volt (per GM).
takeaway $7000 for a rebate and:
$23k - $33k.
5 year savings reduces actual cost to $14k to $24k.
At about $24k they could probably easily sell 100,000 cars per year.
Anyway that is how I see it COULD be. Of course mpg will continue to go up on the typical compact but I think we can assume that the mpg of the volt off the battery will also be very high.
Considering that the foreign nameplates in general, and Japanese nameplates in particular, started to make serious inroads into the U.S. market about 30 years ago, one could argue that those examples are quite relevant to what is happening today.
dallasdude: Not thats not important, but one could bring up the hired Pinkerton's/goons that companies had on the payroll eons ago.
Except that no one is accusing the Pinkertons or goons of deliberately sabotaging the product, so that is irrelevant.
dallasdude: Fact is that about the only folks who don't hire these consultants is schools and govt. The govt and university employees are going union more than any other sectors.
Because these entities exist largely on tax money, and the attitude among most those in charge of government and universities is that this supply of money is largely endless. In a competitive environment, companies can't always raise prices to compensate for higher costs (including labor). GM, Ford and Chrysler are Exhibit A in that regard. In government, there is always an excuse to raise taxes because of a fiscal "crisis."
I think you make my point precisely. Do you want a teacher that no longer gives a hoot looking after the special needs of your child? The NEA says the teacher has tenure and that guarantees their job. Makes no difference if they are interested in the progress of our children. That and the lack of discipline allowed in public schools and you have some real problems. My sister in law teaches kindergarten in a relatively small town here. She has children cuss her out, kick her, hit her, spit on her. And the school will not expel them. That makes it difficult to teach the other children with one or two real problem children in class. So I do see both sides of the issue.
Yes Private schools require parental involvement and are able to maintain better discipline. The big thing is parental involvement that is lacking in Public schools. Plus teacher performance in Private schools is much easier as they are not under the NEA.
That opens another Pandora's box. The money that school districts waste on administration is criminal. Notice whenever there are money issues, they cut teachers not administrators. California is in a budget crunch and all the news is how many teachers they will have to lay off and how big the classes will be. No mention of laying off the layer after layer of worthless school administration.
Now I am not saying all teachers fall into the poor category after so many years teaching. There are thousands of great teachers that are probably way past the age that I would want to be working. I am going by what my ex-wife and my current wife tell me about teachers. My current wife volunteers one day a week at her sister's school. There are teachers that should be in some other line of work that are protected by the Union. There are great teachers that are jacked around each fall because they have not reached that Nirvana called tenure.
In CA Ahnold wanted to stretch the period of probation out longer. The NEA got it defeated. His idea was flawed because it is not the new young teachers that are the problem. It is very easy to just not rehire a teacher with few years service. My sister in law is on her 8th year at her school. She does not know if she will be hired until the school has a student count for the beginning of school. She also does not know what grade she will have till the week before school starts. Last year she was all set up in a 4th grade class and the first day of school they had her change to Kindergarten. So what good is a Union for her?
Your calculations for annual mileage on PI power = 14,400 miles. After that, you need to add the gas so an additional $584 per year or $2,920 over 5 years for the additional 3,650 miles.
18,000 miles/year is over average but if you have along commute, these costs must be added.
The initial payback will not be there as a Civic can get you 28 MPG all around by the time the Volt is energized. Annual fuel costs for the Civic will be $2,572 for 18,000 miles but the cost differential from the $40K price of the Volt is , say, $15K? Even saving $2,000 per year on gas = 7 year break even.
Did anyone do the math at GM...oh, yea, I forgot, the UAW has bean counters and I am sure they estimated this formula for success.
It's scary when a Presidential Candidate can not assimilate numbers correctly!
Regards,
OW
Sounds like a management problem to me. Principals? Superintendents? Don't they have a count in the spring to predict number of classrooms? Is it a high immigrant area?
> She does not know if she will be hired
In Ohio April 30 is the deadline for nonrenewal, with only a few outs for the district which are almost unworkable short of fiscal mismanagement.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
I'm getting more worried when the candidate is spending time making promises to the UAW and Michgan workers giving away OPM (other people's money) like he's already been elected. Well I guess he has been elected to Senate, but you know what I mean.
In days of 19 trillion dollars in debt we give $7000 to purchaser of a hybrid or electric vehicle?
In days of 19 trillion dollars in debt we're going to give every family another $1000 pay-for-your-vote stimulus check? "Vote for me and I'll give another $1000, but I'll kill the current tax cuts that mean old current president put in and raise taxes on most people with additional taxes on oil companies" (which the people will pay in the end).
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
It is scary, because there are people that actually believe campaign promises. The only promises you can count on from a politician is when they say they will raise taxes they mean it. Sadly it is the working stiff that will get hit the hardest with the roll back of the Bush tax cuts. The rich will NOT be hurt. They have it all covered with trusts and offshore accounts. The UAW has two solid reasons to encourage folks to not vote for the Democrats. One, higher taxes for the working man. Two an energy policy that DOES NOT favor the Big 3 or American working man. High gas prices are a direct result of failed policy by this Congress.
PS
It is only $9 trillion :sick:
And again you are assuming $40k is the cost of the vehicle. This cost will come down quickly. Also I am sure there will be tax rebates.
Uh, rocky, did it ever occur to you that some of us wonder the same thing about you???...
When Nissan opened its Smyrna, Tenn., plant in 1983, the Japanese automaker paid workers nearly as much as the UAW contract rate to help ensure the union didn’t organize the plant. Despite repeated efforts to unionize the Smyrna facility, Nissan has remained union free as have all of the other foreign-owned auto assembly plants that since have located in the South."
Chattanooga: VW plant could push up local wages (Chattanooga Times Free Press)
I think though that if the high wages had not been won that perhaps the domestic industry could have kept off the competition from outside the country a bunch longer.
I thought the transplants paid as much as the domestics did? $15 is nowhere near $30.
http://www.payscale.com/research/US/Employer=General_Motors_Corp/Hourly_Rate
Honda will pay $14.84 an hour and provide an annual performance bonus to workers starting at the $550 million factory under construction in southeastern Indiana.
The wage will gradually rise to $18.55 by 2009 and eventually pass $20 an hour as workers gain experience and the plant becomes established, Honda spokesman David Iida said.
As long as Slickless Hillary is out, I'll suffer through 4 years of BO!
Regards,
OW
Regards,
OW
So the 2012 vehicles will probably go 20 miles and be quite a bit cheaper. So GM starts with a 40 mile range on the Volt. Make the headlines and sell to tree huggers for outrageous price and then come out with new models (lots of them) that will go 20 miles at just a bit of a premium over comparable vehicles.
One thing to remember is that they are not just adding expensive batteries. They are removing an expensive powertrain and leaving a small generator.
Here is a pic of the show car chassis. I guess it uses a lot less battery than I would have thought. It is from 1.5 years ago though so lots has changed.
http://www.motorauthority.com/gallery/gm/concepts/volt_2/d13gthumbs/X07AR_CH014.- jpg
See, this is where we get a slippery slope. The private schools can eliminate the riff-raff, AND cherry pick the best students. I would assume this makes a teachers job easier, as you have fewer problems, and a much higher % of kids who "get it" when the lesson is taught.
If the school doesn't discipline the students, and then force the parents to do something if in-house discipline doesn't work, then I can see your SIL burning out real quick. Then, if she sticks it out, she may end up one of the ones who doesn't give a damn. That would be a shame, as it is a management issue, and not one of the individual teachers.
thanks.
Are you just deducing this my friend? Maybe you listen to Rush?
Most folks don't realize that most innovations come from govt research via defense contractors, institutions of higher learning, NASA. Space Program....teflon to velcro...........Defense Dept.......composites and all the other alloys. Fact is that the govt commissioned the first computer for the first census. Numerical control/robotics too are govt. projects way back.
Bottom line is that even the Big Three use the technology paid for with tax money. Otherwise the govt is useless in marketing and so corporations are needed. Funny how all the drugs companies are going into genetics after the initial investment. Those involved in the research are also being lured into the private sector.
FYI Porsche has about 70% of its business as consultation and in 70s they were on Toyota's payroll. In 1979 a Celica came out with a TAGRA band, big German pistons/crank, and an American and or large person would fit in this car.
I think it is safe to say the whole world has benefited from our space and military R&D. Why shouldn't the Big 3 get in on the discoveries made with tax dollars. They paid huge amounts of taxes when they were making money.
The big question, will the UAW be a contributing part of their down fall? The UAW membership have a lot more to lose than the upper management at say GM. The executives walk away with a fat bank account and who knows how much stashed in the Caymans. The average UAW worker has probably saved enough for next weeks groceries and a mortgage payment.
Then we look at management and or the administration as a group of helpless yokels. They are by far more prepared and seek to insure a stable work force therefore, want to smooth out anything disruptive to the day to day operations.
There are no helpless people in a represented UAW shop. Since they are the union. If the non union Walmart worker (an employee at will) can sue class action and win, thereby changing the behavior of Walmart, then just think what a employee backed by the UAW can do. A suit costing millions is the only thing Walmart understands and is required for behavior modification.
I guess I'm not average. I have more than enough saved to pay off my house, car loan and everything else if I had to. I'm hoping I don't have to touch any of that until I retire.
Right now I'm waiting for the UAW to start negotiations that will hopefully lead to a buyout offer of $100k or more. Either that or an early retirement offer at 85% of full retirement. If they wave either of those in my face I'll be the first one out the door.
I have a job interview with Boeing this Friday (step 3 of their hiring process). If I could manage to pull off an early retirement or buyout where I'm at and at the same time land a job with Boeing for 15 years or so I'd be ecstatic.
We had the same mix in the Teamsters. Some folks never let a Credit Card offer go unsigned. I was in that CC trap when you could write off consumer debt interest. I think back on just how stupid I was. Of course I still have 3 home mortgages. I could cash in my 401K and pay them off. I just don't want to pay the taxes until I have to at 70.
Wait! is there a German UAW?!? Hold that thought!
Regards,
OW
Do you think that is because the cars are many steps better than the rest of the world?
Regards,
Ow
"But I also know where I want the fuel-efficient cars of tomorrow to be built: Not in Japan, not in China, but right here in the United States of America. Right here in the state of Michigan."
If he was talking to a group in another state, would he plug in their state instead of Michigan?
"He said he would support the sale of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a suggestion he opposed in the past, but which he said today could immediately drop the price of gas."
That Strategic Petroleum Reserve was, and should still be, kept available for emergency services and military purposes in case the SHTF. Last time that was done, the companies that purchased it sent a great deal of it over seas where the profits were higher. They should have been brought to task on that move, but were not.
According to the news this morning. Right now oil prices have dropped by 19% from the "high", since Bush lifted the Presidential Ban on new drilling. I believe the prices would drop considerably more if Nancy P. and company would allow a vote considering new drilling, and it passed.
Kip
That's debatable. Maybe they are in terms of innovation, materials used, and fit and finish, but I wouldn't say they were the most dependable or durable or even the best looking. I'd say the German companies see their workers as "skilled craftsmen" to be carefully looked after rather than a neccessary evil whose ranks are decimated by an accountant's pen when the going gets rough.
If you're asking what makes German cars distinctive, I'd cite 2 factors: Germany's excellent vocational education system, which teaches useful, marketable skills to kids not bound for universities, & the autobahn highway network, many stretches of which have no speed limit. This encourages the development of cars with superior high-speed driving dynamics.
Only up to a point. The world's highest labor costs together with the strong Euro are pricing German goods out of the market. German manufacturers are responding by outsourcing jobs to former Soviet-bloc countries & to the U.S. (Yes, the United States benefits in some cases from outsourcing. Look at the BMW & Daimler-Benz plants in the South.)
Also, German companies - notably, BMW - are investing heavily in automation to reduce payroll costs. (I've said it before & I'll say it again: automation, not outsourcing, is the leading destroyer of blue-collar & clerical jobs.)
No...this comes from studying the market and having worked in government.
dallasdude: Most folks don't realize that most innovations come from govt research via defense contractors, institutions of higher learning, NASA. Space Program....teflon to velcro...........Defense Dept.......composites and all the other alloys. Fact is that the govt commissioned the first computer for the first census. Numerical control/robotics too are govt. projects way back.
No, some innovations come from government research. And your example does nothing to disprove that : a. governments and universities do not have the same cost controls as corporations; and, b. that companies with a high cost structure cannot raise prices in a competitive environment, resulting in their eventual demise or acquisition by another company. You may want to check the latest quarterly report of your employer (if I recall correctly, you work for GM), to learn all about the deleterious effects of that one.
dallasdude: FYI Porsche has about 70% of its business as consultation and in 70s they were on Toyota's payroll. In 1979 a Celica came out with a TAGRA band, big German pistons/crank, and an American and or large person would fit in this car.
Porsche is a privately owned corporation, so I'm not quite what this example has to do with government-subsidized research and the auto industry. It is owned by the Porsche and Piech families, both of whom are descended from Ferdinand Porsche.
Porsche does consulting work for lots of companies - it worked with Ford on the engineering of the Duratec line of engines, for example. In the 1950s, it provided a prototype sedan (complete with unit-body construction and a rear-engine format) to Studebaker for evaluation.
If you are trying to suggest that only its consulting contracts with Toyota kept it in business during the 1970s, that is not correct.
The German distinction is not only high speed but precision maneuvering. The cars are just more capable all around than offerings in the US. Your answer reflects a disadvantage in the work force but what about design? The current platforms used by the Detroit 3 are not as sophisticated. You can only put together the parts that are created. It goes back to the standard of the parts specified.
Regards,
OW
I'm old enough to remember when most of the world's desirable & expensive cameras were German brands. Then the Japanese broke into the market with cameras that had more features at lower prices & practically wiped out the German camera industry. Today, the few remaining German names are largely Asian-manufactured.
Don't think that the same thing can't happen to German carmakers. When you've got the highest costs on the planet, you're vulnerable. In 10 or 15 years, the only pure German cars might be ultra-premium offerings like the Maybach. The BMW 3-series, if it's still around, might be a South African or Asian or U.S. (non-union South) product.
Daimler, the company that owns Mercedes-Benz and 20 percent of Chrysler, is working on a plan to prevent any takeover attempts, German reports are saying. The company is apparently considering finding an anchor investor that could block a full takeover.
The Deutsche Bank is advising Daimler on the proceedings regarding this, according to a Financial Times Deutschland report that does not reveal its sources. The concerns come after a German ball-bearings manufacturer, Schaeffler Group, made a shock takeover last month for auto supplier Continental, gaining 36 percent of its shares without telling the authorities.
This and the fact Daimler’s value has fallen by a whopping 45 percent since the beginning of 2008 is leading many to believe Daimler is susceptible to a similar sneak attack.
“The supervisory board has very intensively discussed the topic of hostile takeovers,” an unnamed source reportedly told the German daily paper.
This week’s other reports have Swedish investor Cevian Capital buying shares in Daimler, though the car company says there is no evidence of a hedge fund investor building up stock.
Regards,
OW
I would say they could be the next to fall. The cradle to grave mentality cannot be sustained on a global basis. It is fine for small wealthy countries with closed borders. The cost of health care alone could bring these well established companies like Daimler to their knees.
Just as the UAW workers are learning. The high labor costs cannot compete against lower cost imports or US built cars with lower labor costs. If a guy in Alabama will build a Mercedes for $15 per hour and can support his family. Why should MB pay someone $25 per hour to do the same job? We may become the next major auto making country for export. If the UAW just lets go of the past they could be a part of that new booming auto industry. They are not ENTITLED to a job. They have to provide labor that is competitive in the current World market.
No, but $30 at Toyota is more than $27 at UAW.
Foreign Automakers' Bonuses Boost Wages in U.S. Plants
Also how much of the profit paid in bonuses there represented profit from the overseas manufacturing for Toyota which is greater than Hondas, IIRC? I.e., is the $6000-8000 bonus from US money and profits or is it corporatewide?
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
But the UAW's Casteel, who is working to organize autoworkers in southern states, said the UAW's recruiting strategy of comparing union and nonunion checks doesn't work in less-developed parts of the South. In Alabama and Mississippi, for instance, the U.S. Department of Labor says wages average less than $11 an hour.
"If you start looking at where they put these plants, they go out to the most desolate places you've ever been in your life," Casteel, an Alabama native, said of foreign automakers. "And they make sure there are no other competitive wages with any other industry. You'll drive through these piney woods for an hour and all of a sudden you run upon this major manufacturing facility."
Maybe it is time for the UAW to prod the Big 3 into relocating some of their plants to lower cost of living areas. If the UAW says to their guys we are no longer profitable in Detroit and we are all moving to Alabama. You can come along and be paid enough to maintain the standard of living you are accustomed to. That would be a win for the Automaker and the UAW. They could be established in those areas.
This not a new concept. It has been going on for 40-50 years. The Big 3 along with the UAW have had their collective heads in the sand. If a nice home in Michigan is $200k and the same home in Alabama is $100k the cost of living is a whole lot less. It is just simple economics. It is not like oil that you have to hire where it is found. You can build a car ANYWHERE in the WORLD.
See, it's simple things like this that concern me. Michigan may have a lot of faults, faults that are their own, but land prices can be a matter of supply and demand. Michigan is a large state, but here in RI, we have one of the most dense populations in the country. That $100k home in Ala. is probably $300k here. Here in Bristol, one of the new developments (only about a dozen lots), the price for the lots START at $210k, and that is for 10,000 SQAURE FEET!!! So, how do older, more established, areas of the country compete with the South??? Even high tech industries could move down there and pay less.
And we haven't even got into differences in labor laws
Excellent point. If you're making wine, you need just the right soil & climate to grow your grapes, but cars...
Rhode Island should benefit from its proximity to Boston. If you could take a knife to your taxes & clean up your politics - I think of RI as the NJ of New England - you'd be in great shape.
That is legitimate question. When the market peaked here in San Diego the average home hit $625k. Now it is down to around $400k. That is still a lot of money for a working person to afford. I would say the cost of land is a big factor in building any new business. Tax incentives and labor probably make up the 3 major factors. Then you have environmental roadblocks. That is what has kept CA out of the running the last 20 years on anything but the cleanest tech businesses.
Being near a University is a big factor in high tech companies. I spent time in Raleigh going to training in 1983. The Research Triangle was just getting started. Northern Telecom was one of the first. I am sure the 3 great Universities and cheap land were big factors.
Then you have the situation in Silicon Valley. It is SO expensive that service people cannot afford homes there. Teachers and Police were given special loans so they could afford a place to live. I had a friend interview up there. They offered him as an IT person $125k to start. He said he could not come close to what he had in San Diego at $85k per year. Then he ended up in Detroit making what he was making here. He has a lovely home on a small lake and loves it. So maybe there is hope for Michigan yet.
All the satellite work was done with govt money. Your GPS, satellite TV, and a few other consumer markets were opened up as a result. Do you think that any company out there can or is willing to foot the bill for this kind of research? Maybe GE or the German chemical giant GASF. Also in order for China to launch satellites they were given top secret technology by GM/Hughes and Loral. Prior they were making big bon-fires on the launch pad. Multi-million dollar large bon-fires.
google that one
Why did not the drug manufacturers start the genetic research? The integrated circuit was another first for Texas Instruments.
Well I could go on forever, but that would be a book thicker tha War and Peace.
I see this as an experiment, just as the Saturn factory is/was to see if ideas from the East work here in the USA.
GM goes back to the drawing board and the CTS (aka Catera Touring Sedan) is born. Myself, I like German engineering and have always tinkered with it as a form of amusement. But, thats me. I also like to do the Daily Commuter and the New Yorker to awaken my brain in the morning.
It'll be moving some where in proximity to the real 'Bama very soon for me!
Regards,
OW
This still doesn't answer the question of how bringing up an example of a privately owned company - Porsche - doing research to benefit another privately owned company - Toyota - proves the beneficial effects of government research to the economy.
dallasdude: No self respecting German would design front wheel drive.
Do the front-wheel-drive VW Polo, Lupo, Golf/Rabbit, Bora/Jetta and Passat only exist in my imagination? Or is VW no longer a German company, or at least one no longer staffed by German engineers and managers? This will certainly be news back in Germany...
dallasdude: All the satellite work was done with govt money. Your GPS, satellite TV, and a few other consumer markets were opened up as a result. Do you think that any company out there can or is willing to foot the bill for this kind of research? Maybe GE or the German chemical giant GASF. Also in order for China to launch satellites they were given top secret technology by GM/Hughes and Loral. Prior they were making big bon-fires on the launch pad. Multi-million dollar large bon-fires.
All of this related to defense spending, which, under the U.S. Constitution, is the sole province of the federal government. So I would expect the federal government be involved. Since we have not, as a rule, adopted a policy of nationalizing companies, it stands to reason that the federal government will work with private companies to develop the technology needed for defense, and some of this technology will have civilian applications.
As for government help to drug companies - considering that the government has imposed a very strict regimen of testing and research on drugs before any new drug can be released to the public (which is necessary for public protection), it makes sense that the government provides them with support.
At the state level, we find that the states with the highest amount of government-directed economic development spending have the lower population growth, job growth and income growth, when compared to states with less government-directed economic development spending.