Was that the same issue of CR that made the following statements? From their analysis it defies common logic to buy a hybrid.
"In Consumer Reports’ analysis, none of the six hybrids tested recovered its price premium in the first five years and 75,000 miles of ownership. In fact, the extra ownership costs over five years for those vehicles ranged from $3,700 to $13,300.
Even when the analysis was extended to a period of 10 years and 150,000 miles, it was not possible to recover the price premium for a hybrid vehicle. "
I think both takes really confirms what I said about the cogent and practical questions, such as how long will this take?!! COST will ALWAYS be an essential factor. In asking the questions, I also put a SWAG (scientific Wild A.. guess) out there in the 25-50 year time frame. So in the sense that as long as the hybrid/s is/are mated (by rules and regulations and marketing etc forces) your references to the "iron" age will always hold true. It also remains true that the gasser hybrid mating does NOTHING to wean us from foreign oil. So untill we have SIGNIFCANT deviance from unleaded regular (in any matrix of combinations) the essential truth will remain the same. So strictly from an efficiency point of view why would we want three motors (235.4 x3) when one will do? Especially when diesel has an app 37% efficiency over a gasser in ANY side by side configuration.
Especially when diesel has an app 37% efficiency over a gasser in ANY side by side configuration.
I think many are seeing the benefit of diesel. In car sales for February the VW Jetta outsold the Prius. We can only hope that most of the Jetta's sold are the TDI model. By the end of this year the market will look different than it does today. All the CA HOV passes are gone and Prius sales are declining. I would guess at least half of the Prii sold in CA were to get a free solo ride in the HOV lanes. I would have thought the tax credit would make for higher hybrid sales the first few months of 2006. It does not appear to be the case.
I would agree with your take. I think if the hybrid numbers(vol and %) are put in the context of the practical numbers (passenger vehicle fleet of 253.4 M) the regression (to the mean, medium, and mode) is inexorable. So if you use the Edmunds.com since closed forum thread " I Hate SUV's, Why Don't You?", the real questions iseem to be, when do the factors conspire to put the kibosh on the so called perceived "juggernaut". As a point of reference, the peak of the so called "Suv craze and "MASSIVE" growth, which is more than ancient history is at 12% of the passenger vehicle fleet. So if gasser hybrids are at less than 1%.... would seem to me to be one of the central issues.
So for example using the 2004 time frame that I was searching for a "commute" car between the Prius (which I happpen to think as a certain amount of "coolness") Corolla, Civic, (among others) what drives one to pay 25,000 vs 12,600 for the commuter car?
On the other hand, as long as oem's can get (several) premiums for hybrids and continue to drive down costs why on earth would they not CONTINUE to develop market and build? It is standard operating procedure. ALL cars and models have a natural product life cycle. So it is an absolute no brainer especially when folks pay MSRP and beyond and the problem is the manufacturer can not keep up. EVERY business would LOVE to have THAT problem!!?????
Thanks Gagrice, I might say I enjoy reading your input also. It's too bad Ruking didn't read my #2720 posting as thoroughly particularly the last paragraph concerning opportunities for drastic downsizing of a hybrids' components. Part of the problem I think is that there are too many parts in a Prius for what it does, but I extend that to conventional vehicles also. How many vehicles besides the Insight do you know that offer even 3-cylinder engines ? I see you have chosen to drive a VW Passat diesel. I am well versed in the advantages of the Otto cycle PV diagram also. But their mass to power ratio has excluded them from use in aircraft for the same reason that you can't make a successful airplane with cast iron. They are well suited to marine, rail, trucking and stationary applications but we are not yet at the point where thermodynamic efficiency of diesels and all that entails should be a consideration until the rest of the automotive house is in order. At least IMO !! For instance the Prius Final drive is 82% efficient. That is correct - from MG2's shaft to the wheel axle there are two intervening shafts that should not be there. Their removal would improve efficiency by 12% the same efficiency between diesel and gasoline engines that people keep harping about on this forum. Then there is the efficacy issue of the PSD. Post 6327 shows that 5000rpm is not available until 50mph. From 30-50mph only 80% of the 76Hp is available for propulsion but I am repeating myself.
Considering diesel hybrids in cars. A diesel is just not efficient with fluctuating loads because its power band is narrow. So frictional losses at low load are around half that at full load. A gasoline engine, by comparison, which can rev to 10000rpm for those exceedingly short periods of time needed, exhibits a much greater drop in frictional loss when falling to those lower rpms for cruising. Losses which come at high power I'm willing to pay for, I am not willing to pay for frictional losses incurred when cruising a 2.4L engine down the hiway when a 600cc unit could have been doing the same job. The information is there - mileage correlates to engine capacity - in every road test I've seen.
For interesting stuff on Prius suscribe to Yahoo groups Prius_technical_stuff site and look up post #12022 there is a url for OAK RIDGE yeah "that" OAK RIDGE. Click on that url. take a look at the pdf. Figs 2.5, 2.6 show Final Drive pic you can see why its lossy Then modify url to 122430.pdf and press Go again. see Pg162 pic of Delphi's version of MG2. Perhaps someone could bring those urls onto this site or the Advanced Hybrid Engineering board here. T2
I don't consider buying a Prius and paying a premium. Especially when you are purchasing a reliable vehicle with a Federal tax credit. After my tax credits (CT saved me over $1,000 in sales tax!). My net cost was low 20's and I actually got $750 off MSRP. I have a package #7. I love this car and don't consider I paid any premium for it.
Quite frankly I expected the Prius to sell in a lot bigger numbers with the promised tax credit. Either everyone that wants one has it or Toyota is holding up production. With the Jan & Feb sales numbers Toyota will be lucky to match 2005 sales of the Prius. The HCH and all Civics are the only cars doing significantly better than last year, out of the top 5 cars.
For the diesel afficiandos (I'm one); check out findadblue.com. This is a European after-burn,not fuel additive,based on urea. Reduces the NOx emissions enough to make diesels met EU standard 4 & 5. Already being offered by M-B,Iveco,Volvo for their trucks. Look for CARB to mandate something like it here.
For the alt-fuel guys; check out butanol.com. David Ramey has something that could make alt-fuels catch on. Butanol does everything that ethanol does only better. Can work as a 1:1 substitute for gasoline in existing engines and infrastructure. Ramey claims butanol has 94% of the power of gasoline. Anybody got $10M to throw at him so he can get on to the next step?
I personally don't care how many units are sold since it does not effect me. I think that we're at a point of saturation now that additional sales will be influenced by the price point of gas. As to sales numbers, using Jan and Feb is not indicative of sales trends for the year. Those months usually are low as winter is traditionally not a good time for auto sales. I also think that people may be waiting for the Camry hybrid.
Those months usually are low as winter is traditionally not a good time for auto sales. I also think that people may be waiting for the Camry hybrid.
You are probably right on both counts. I just expected a mad rush to get in on the tax credit. If the $3200 credit holds up to the IRS scrutiny it will make the Prius Premium non existent. As long as they are sold for MSRP or less.
..."It's too bad Ruking didn't read my #2720 posting as thoroughly particularly the last paragraph concerning opportunities for drastic downsizing of a hybrids' components. "...
Actually it is too bad that you did not grasp that I DID read it and that you still neither understand or acknowledge that even with the "downsizing", it will still take "time for conversion" and that is even after the MASSIVE R & D and then the massive investment necessary for this effort. Currently it should be more than obvious massive R & D monies are not really chasing the path you are advocating.
I think all you really have to do is look at the so called "hp power race" to understand that 90 hp in a TDI can let you cruise all day at 100 mph at 40's mpg plus, while almost EVERYTHING available in the USA has more hp, including the so called economical Honda Civic at 110 hp and now at 140 hp. Incidently not many cars do get 40's 50's and 60's.
Hi Ruking, I appreciate your passionate and confrontational style. In my response I think I successfully rebutted the "extra (electric) motor" gig you were on.
I did not intend to acknowledge the massive R&D costs in that post, consequently I didn't feel the need to address them there. But I will now -
NRE costs exist in all industries its no crime as you seem to feel. Non Recurring Engineering expenses are found today in flat screen TV's and DVD recorders. A $900 DVD recorder I picked up in June '04 can now be got for $479 but I knew going in that that was going to be the penalty for being an early adopter. I am still waiting for the widescreen TV's to come down further. It doesn't stop me from disliking the way Japanese manufacturers think they can pass off a $100 20" CRT TV for $600. That's what they're asking for an LCD replacement around here.
OTOH passing NRE's off to the consumer is a good way of forestalling initial demand while manufacturing capability is built up. Time to Market is often espoused, but Time to Profit is of much more interest to manufacturers who want a ROI ASAP. What they want to avoid is disgruntled would-be customers who are lined up 20 deep outside. Those hybrid premiums are a way to accomplish that. I also feel that they would want to limit initially the amount of untried technology they let out there. The Unkown unknowns as Dick Cheney puts it. Litigation against foreign suppliers is alive and well as Canadian RIM has found with its $625million payout to NTP.
American motorists have shown great faith in supporting this technology with their automotive dollars. I am hopeful that the impending failure of the HAH and HH may convince manufacturers not to go upmarket with increasing hybrid horsepower. I just test drove an '06 Civic, nice car but did Honda really need to put 140Hp 1.8L in their entry level car ? Their 1.3L engine would have been just great with a 5MT and that new styling (while FIT still not available here) Honda needs to learn we have an offshore oil problem in North America and purchasing those Civics will be a vote in the wrong direction IMO. T2
..."I appreciate your passionate and confrontational style. In my response I think I successfully rebutted the "extra (electric) motor" gig you were on.
I did not intend to acknowledge the massive R&D costs in that post, consequently I didn't feel the need to address them there. But I will now -" ...
You did not successfully rebute anything.
..."American motorists have shown great faith in supporting this technology with their automotive dollars."...
At less than 1% of the population of hybrids, then in fact with 2.3-2.9% diesels, even you will not acknowledge how long and how far ANY off the shelf as well as any new technology has to go. In fact more dollars are invested with the diesel off the shelf technology. If you think that you can shape reality by what you chose to ignore, then your viewpoint is WRONG. Be that as it may, even a broken watch is correct 2 times a day! I respect your opinion on this, but I don't see you investing your money down the path you advocate. Why? probably the same reason why I do not. You probably are as I am, hoping to not buy the "WRONG" technology. So I am not sure why you wish to say YOU think I am criminalizing it. Again, you make an entirely wrong characterization. In fact your actions agree with what I am saying, even as you indicate you disagree. That is fine.
I have been pretty clear which avenue I THINK will probably take greater market share, i.e. diesel, during the short term and up to 25-50 years. This of course does not necessarily mean it will happen. At the best, it would mean I'd be early. In the mean time, I will enjoy the 44-62 mpg for hopefully over 500,000 miles.
..."Honda needs to learn we have an offshore oil problem in North America and purchasing those Civics will be a vote in the wrong direction IMO. "...
Not sure why you persist in incorect characterizations (hmm a real trend for you here?) and incorrectly reading the markets. But then again that is your perogative. Again I would say for your nickel, buy something else. It would be interesting to see what you would buy in light of this thread. Right now the new Civic is selling at premium. If anything Honda has successfully read the USA market and given the market what it wants.
It appears that CR has not done their homework in their April issue. I take issue with their cost of ownership of a hybrid. Namely depreciation and insurance. I pay less insurance for my Prius than I did for my previous vehicle (same price range). I also have researched the fact that hybrids seem to be doing very well in the resale department too. They hold their value very well. My 2004 Prius has given me great service. CR also was wrong with the Liberty. How can they get 18 overall and everyone else gets mid 20's? One thing that they are in agreement with JD power is on VW reliability. Both show that it is very, very poor. Oh... the Prius now has 95% v 94% satisfaction. No other vehicles comes close except the Corvette.Fancy company!! Woo hoo!!
I see CR as just one tool in the research quiver. The shock comes when it is relied upon as gospel. It clearly is not. However it is a great research tool.
Also much more is involved with what you pay for insurance than on the selling price. For example I pay more both vol and % wise for a Civic, TDI, than for a Z06 Corvette (all things being equal)This curiously also happens to be in DESCENDING order. !!?? (Civic being the cheapest, yet being the MOST to insure?? Go figure?)
Logan is $11,800 with taxes. If Renault can make money at these prices then they should export this car.
Actually, I don't really desire a Logan, however, it is a good example of the price advantage of a diesel compared to a hybrid. How many hybrids are for sale anywhere in the world for $11,800 or less?
To me this makes all the sense! There is a premium for diesel because simply they can get it. So with the advent of a higher population of diesels, the premium hopefully will shrink or in the best case; cost less than the same model in gasser. (dreaming here, I know)
So if we try to integrate the miniaturization of hybrid technology, the hope would be the "silicon valley" experiences will apply as Toyolla2 alludes. But surely from where the Prius and HCH etc start, is it a realistic (shorter term) expectation to have a 12,000 hybrid? For example to match the 2005 Toyota Echo at 10,000 or the 2004 Honda Civic @ 12,600?
While in Victoria last summer I stopped into the Smart dealer. A decked out Cabriolet was about $19k Canadian. I don't think we will see the diesel version in the US for a while. The gas model makes little sense as it gets about the same mileage as a Civic. The one owner I talked to gets over 70 MPG around town. Perfect for running errands.
It is way cool. And this type of car is available in a country that is a HUGE oil and gas (energy) EXPORTER: translation, USA!!
This really highlights how disingenuous our own environmental advocates have always been and probably will remain. This can be seen as particularly hypocritical in light of the opinion that foreign oil dependency is a major issue. Nothing at all wrong with 40 mph cars like Prius HCH etc, but supporting legislation etc that keeps out 70 plus mpg cars, well....
supporting legislation etc that keeps out 70 plus mpg cars, well....
You're right. The same people that scream about US not signing the Kyoto Treaty have all but blocked highly FE cars. Diesel trucks are OK though because they are for business. The Smart twofor that is sold in Canada would be the most fuel efficient car in the USA, if available. It would also put out the least amount of GHG. And be CO2 neutral using biodiesel.
In the News: Honda to sell low-cost hybrid in 2007/08
Date: February 22, 2006 02:52 Submitted by: Tuan Source: Reuters
From the article: "Japan's third-biggest auto maker aims to sell the Fit hybrid as early as next year for around 1.4 million yen ($11,790), or about 200,000 yen more than the gasoline-only version, likely making it the world's first hybrid to cost less than 2 million yen ($16,840), the leading Japanese business daily said on Wednesday.
The model could be launched in the business year starting April 2007 and would be sold globally, the paper said.
A spokesman denied Honda had made any decision on whether to hybridise the Fit, but added it had the technological wherewithal to mount its hybrid system, which twins an electric motor and a conventional engine to save fuel, on most of its vehicles."
Sorry to burst your bubble but it ain't getting 70 mpg, even imperial - around town. No way at all.
Well, I would be happy for 50 MPG on the short trips I make every day. No hybrids sold here are able to do that on 2-3 mile trips.
If memory serves me correctly the speed limit on Vancouver Island was 90 KMH, about 56 MPH in the US. That may account for the higher mileages reported in the twofor. The Smart car does not seem like a vehicle I would head out onto Interstate 10 and compete with the semi's doing 80 MPH. I don't think the Prius is particularly well suited to cross winds created by big trucks either.
CR's analysis is flawed at best or intentionally slanted to the cost conscious ( I do agree with this slant if it's the case ). Consider:
1) I drive 40000 mi annually and @ $2.00/gal I will save $4000 in fuel over 5 years of driving as compared to the 2000 Camry that I was driving; CR's conclusion is false immediately. 2) There is no equivalent ICE only Prius. A buyer has to step down to a Corolla to make CR's comparison;
3) Yes, for the frugal and cost conscious on a budget they should not buy a Prius to help balance their budget. This has always been the case so there's nothing new here.
4) The typical Prius buyer is not a month-to-month budget buyer. They are normally a cash buyer where the price can be anywhere in the $25000 - $35000 range. Thus the whole argument is directed to another range of potential buyers. This is where I do agree with the CR conclusion. For the vast majority of buyers hybrids are not the answer to their budget problems.
Diesels are a very good alternative soon in the future.
The numbers are consistent with past months and an expectation of 100,000 units to be sold annually. Here's an interesting slant, three years into it's model life it's still at sticker and the new '08 is only 18 mo's out. That's strong for a 100K unit vehicle.
Demand/sales are 5/1 comparing CA to the next largest state ( VA ) so initially it's your neighbors who are hogging them all and keeping the rest of the country from the opportunity.
Tradein value on these is ridiculous at the moment, 70% of value with 55K+ miles for example.
Yes, for the frugal and cost conscious on a budget they should not buy a Prius
Or any other hybrid, and I would add to that the available diesel cars. We don't know enough about the long term reliability of the hybrids to make the kind of predictions that CR has made. If they are analyzing the Classic Prius it should have been compared to the Echo that it was closest to. With less than 2.5 years on the market the Prius II has no real history to make good reliability claims with.
Someone that puts as many miles on a car as you, may very well come out ahead. Someone like myself that puts less than 7000 miles a year on a car will probably never see a savings. Too many complex pieces of equipment for me, in all the new vehicles. We are having fits with all our newest Ford trucks. All the problems are a result of the computerized crap required by the EPA.
Demand/sales are 5/1 comparing CA to the next largest state ( VA ) so initially it's your neighbors who are hogging them all and keeping the rest of the country from the opportunity.
Makes sense to me. What do those two states have in common? They are allowing the Prius into the HOV lanes. What will happen to sales when the cap is reached or they take away that privilege?
The real issue here is if they are saving anything. Two or three people in a single TDI or Corolla will pollute less than two or three Prius with driver only. They should not be given the privelge as an incentive to buy these cars. That is really wrong.
Enjoy your commute. I work from home. I love my commute. No traffic, no fuel costs, I just chuckle (loudly) when I listen to the traffic report. Forgot, I do not contribute to global warming when I commute!
An 8 mile a day commute (x2=16 miles per day x 22 days x12=) is 4224 miles per year. It makes no economic sense to get a 25,000 Prius vs a 12,600 Honda or a 15,000 Corolla. But then by the responses it seems the extra money 10,000 to 12,500 was paid more for the STATUS. But to each their own.
I saw one post talking about ford Tdci diesel and GM diesels.All ford diesel cars in europe have peugeot HDI diesel motors they just change the name and almoust all GM (like opel) have fiat JTD diesel motor
I do not think it is all EPA or CARB. I think a large part of it is VW's capacity to build these things. In a previous post of many weeks ago, someone stated that VW does not have the capacity to supply enough diesel engines for both the EU and NA markets. If they did, we would be seeing more TDI Jettas and Golfs.
The Polo is a smaller version of the Golf. From what I have read, they are very popular cars in the EU. Again, I think it comes down to the capacity to build.
Has anyone here driven the Polo? I like the looks of it. It takes soooo long to get any new vehicle past the inspection stage in this country. We are really isolated from the rest of the automotive world. Every where else they let the market decide. Here we let the politicians and their lobbyist decide what comes in.
I think the word we are looking for here is over-regulation. I agree with you to a point about the layers of bureaucratic BS a foreign or domestic automaker has to go through to get a new car on the road in this country.
Some basic safety standards do need to be met in my opinion but the way they have to be met is ridiculous.
If I understand what you are asking, i.e. specifically the hybrid diesel, while the hybrid diesel has some "species" specific anomalies and applications, the OVERALL answer is definitely YES!!!
So in effect, the gasser side with the (8 mile per trip) commutes one is talking about is literally flogged and to use an equestrian reference, put away wet. Neither of these conditions are good. Add to that stop and go driving and you have a trifecta of trying conditions. So indeed if the system is not equipped with an absolutely stellar alternator, that is specifically designed to "correctly" replenish the battery, then indeed shorter battery life will happen. One runs the system in a state of perpetual discharge.
I do come from the point of view that any battery that doesn't last at least 10 years is "WEAK" There are of course a few mitigations ANYONE can do. However even on this august topic board, I would SWAG to say 99% do not do it, let alone are aware of them.
So guys like you and Gagrice can do the recitations about the winter gig. (another gruesome time for cars):(
For those of you who drive a TDI, my guess is that you could achieve this kind of economy at similar speeds, sans an eighty-eight battery pack and all of the other accoutrements found in a Prius.
Does the TDI have readout for fuel economy? I have a CRD with an overhead console and can get average economy readings. At 55 mph, I get a touch over 32.4 mpg while at 62,5 mph I get a nice 31.4 mpg. Not bad for a 4300 pound cinder block.
My Passat has an overall and up to the second readout. I was out this morning on level highway at 70 MPH, It fluctuates from 45-55 MPG. The tach is at 2200 RPM in 5th gear. I just took a 55 mile round trip to the Wild Animal Park and averaged 38.7 MPG on the trip Odometer. That is with a lot of up and down hill driving. We mostly use the back roads, more fun to drive.
These are relatively accurate from my own anecdotal experiences. With a fully warmed up vehicle in congested driving values in the 60-80 mpg range are attainable in 5-10 min segments.
I know this is not sound bite able, but given those same speeds, at EVERY speed metric, I get better mpg. While the table does NOT say this, you really do not need to keep your DIESEL "drive by wire" vehicle on such a strict "behavioral modification" regime to achieve essentially across the metric range- much better results (mpg wise).
So to answer your question directly, MY TDI does NOT have this very useful computer read out tool. I would rather have it than not. Indeed a variety of oems and models do. Since the advent of the so called "fuel crisis", one would think ALL oems would put it in across ALL models, what does it really cost 10 dollars MAX? To me this would be a strong selling point that while using this you can meet or exceed the EPA estimates. So judging by how much I have used it in my Z06 Corvette with 70,000 miles, I have to confess I do not use it as much as I probably should.
If I might agree with your take on the "cinder" block. The results of diesel are truly hidden in plain sight. With no other technological complications other that using a diesel engine, how many gassers weighing 4300#'s do get 31-32 mpg in the real world???
I realize I'm really late to the party here, but the more I check into the Hybrids, the less I become convinced this technology is the answer. The initial cost of the Hybrid over the plain version of any of the offerings, will take Hundreds of Thousands of miles to recoop in gasoline savings. Most Hybrids driven "normally" will save about 200 gallons per year (YMMV), which is not significant to me. Lastly, the weight of the batteries, placement, potential injury in a serious accident from the batteries worries me.
I just have to think Diesel is a better solution, until the Fuel Cell or something better comes along.... I think Hybrids are a "feel good fraud", and a temporary fix at best. Just my answer to the topic above... :P
Comments
"In Consumer Reports’ analysis, none of the six hybrids tested recovered its price premium in the first five years and 75,000 miles of ownership. In fact, the extra ownership costs over five years for those vehicles ranged from $3,700 to $13,300.
Even when the analysis was extended to a period of 10 years and 150,000 miles, it was not possible to recover the price premium for a hybrid vehicle. "
I think both takes really confirms what I said about the cogent and practical questions, such as how long will this take?!! COST will ALWAYS be an essential factor. In asking the questions, I also put a SWAG (scientific Wild A.. guess) out there in the 25-50 year time frame. So in the sense that as long as the hybrid/s is/are mated (by rules and regulations and marketing etc forces) your references to the "iron" age will always hold true. It also remains true that the gasser hybrid mating does NOTHING to wean us from foreign oil. So untill we have SIGNIFCANT deviance from unleaded regular (in any matrix of combinations) the essential truth will remain the same. So strictly from an efficiency point of view why would we want three motors (235.4 x3) when one will do? Especially when diesel has an app 37% efficiency over a gasser in ANY side by side configuration.
I think many are seeing the benefit of diesel. In car sales for February the VW Jetta outsold the Prius. We can only hope that most of the Jetta's sold are the TDI model. By the end of this year the market will look different than it does today. All the CA HOV passes are gone and Prius sales are declining. I would guess at least half of the Prii sold in CA were to get a free solo ride in the HOV lanes. I would have thought the tax credit would make for higher hybrid sales the first few months of 2006. It does not appear to be the case.
So for example using the 2004 time frame that I was searching for a "commute" car between the Prius (which I happpen to think as a certain amount of "coolness") Corolla, Civic, (among others) what drives one to pay 25,000 vs 12,600 for the commuter car?
On the other hand, as long as oem's can get (several) premiums for hybrids and continue to drive down costs why on earth would they not CONTINUE to develop market and build? It is standard operating procedure. ALL cars and models have a natural product life cycle. So it is an absolute no brainer especially when folks pay MSRP and beyond and the problem is the manufacturer can not keep up. EVERY business would LOVE to have THAT problem!!?????
I might say I enjoy reading your input also. It's too bad Ruking didn't read my #2720 posting as thoroughly particularly the last paragraph concerning opportunities for drastic downsizing of a hybrids' components. Part of the problem I think is that there are too many parts in a Prius for what it does, but I extend that to conventional vehicles also. How many vehicles besides the Insight do you know that offer even 3-cylinder engines ?
I see you have chosen to drive a VW Passat diesel. I am well versed in the advantages of the Otto cycle PV diagram also. But their mass to power ratio has excluded them from use in aircraft for the same reason that you can't make a successful airplane with cast iron. They are well suited to marine, rail, trucking and stationary applications but we are not yet at the point where thermodynamic efficiency of diesels and all that entails should be a consideration until the rest of the automotive house is in order.
At least IMO !!
For instance the Prius Final drive is 82% efficient. That is correct - from MG2's shaft to the wheel axle there are two intervening shafts that should not be there. Their removal would improve efficiency by 12% the same efficiency between diesel and gasoline engines that people keep harping about on this forum. Then there is the efficacy issue of the PSD. Post 6327 shows that 5000rpm is not available until 50mph. From 30-50mph only 80% of the 76Hp is available for propulsion but I am repeating myself.
Considering diesel hybrids in cars. A diesel is just not efficient with fluctuating loads because its power band is narrow. So frictional losses at low load are around half that at full load. A gasoline engine, by comparison, which can rev to 10000rpm for those exceedingly short periods of time needed, exhibits a much greater drop in frictional loss when falling to those lower rpms for cruising. Losses which come at high power I'm willing to pay for, I am not willing to pay for frictional losses incurred when cruising a 2.4L engine down the hiway when a 600cc unit could have been doing the same job. The information is there - mileage correlates to engine capacity - in every road test I've seen.
For interesting stuff on Prius suscribe to Yahoo groups Prius_technical_stuff site and look up post #12022 there is a url for OAK RIDGE yeah "that" OAK RIDGE. Click on that url. take a look at the pdf. Figs 2.5, 2.6 show Final Drive pic you can see why its lossy Then modify url to 122430.pdf and press Go again. see Pg162 pic of Delphi's version of MG2. Perhaps someone could bring those urls onto this site or the Advanced Hybrid Engineering board here.
T2
For the alt-fuel guys; check out butanol.com. David Ramey has something that could make alt-fuels catch on. Butanol does everything that ethanol does only better. Can work as a 1:1 substitute for gasoline in existing engines and infrastructure. Ramey claims butanol has 94% of the power of gasoline. Anybody got $10M to throw at him so he can get on to the next step?
You are probably right on both counts. I just expected a mad rush to get in on the tax credit. If the $3200 credit holds up to the IRS scrutiny it will make the Prius Premium non existent. As long as they are sold for MSRP or less.
Actually it is too bad that you did not grasp that I DID read it and that you still neither understand or acknowledge that even with the "downsizing", it will still take "time for conversion" and that is even after the MASSIVE R & D and then the massive investment necessary for this effort. Currently it should be more than obvious massive R & D monies are not really chasing the path you are advocating.
I think all you really have to do is look at the so called "hp power race" to understand that 90 hp in a TDI can let you cruise all day at 100 mph at 40's mpg plus, while almost EVERYTHING available in the USA has more hp, including the so called economical Honda Civic at 110 hp and now at 140 hp. Incidently not many cars do get 40's 50's and 60's.
I appreciate your passionate and confrontational style. In my response I think I successfully rebutted the "extra (electric) motor" gig you were on.
I did not intend to acknowledge the massive R&D costs in that post, consequently I didn't feel the need to address them there. But I will now -
NRE costs exist in all industries its no crime as you seem to feel. Non Recurring Engineering expenses are found today in flat screen TV's and DVD recorders. A $900 DVD recorder I picked up in June '04 can now be got for $479 but I knew going in that that was going to be the penalty for being an early adopter. I am still waiting for the widescreen TV's to come down further. It doesn't stop me from disliking the way Japanese manufacturers think they can pass off a $100 20" CRT TV for $600. That's what they're asking for an LCD replacement around here.
OTOH passing NRE's off to the consumer is a good way of forestalling initial demand while manufacturing capability is built up. Time to Market is often espoused, but Time to Profit is of much more interest to manufacturers who want a ROI ASAP. What they want to avoid is disgruntled would-be customers who are lined up 20 deep outside. Those hybrid premiums are a way to accomplish that. I also feel that they would want to limit initially the amount of untried technology they let out there. The Unkown unknowns as Dick Cheney puts it. Litigation against foreign suppliers is alive and well as Canadian RIM has found with its $625million payout to NTP.
American motorists have shown great faith in supporting this technology with their automotive dollars. I am hopeful that the impending failure of the HAH and HH may convince manufacturers not to go upmarket with increasing hybrid horsepower. I just test drove an '06 Civic, nice car but did Honda really need to put 140Hp 1.8L in their entry level car ? Their 1.3L engine would have been just great with a 5MT and that new styling (while FIT still not available here) Honda needs to learn we have an offshore oil problem in North America and purchasing those Civics will be a vote in the wrong direction IMO.
T2
I did not intend to acknowledge the massive R&D costs in that post, consequently I didn't feel the need to address them there. But I will now -" ...
You did not successfully rebute anything.
..."American motorists have shown great faith in supporting this technology with their automotive dollars."...
At less than 1% of the population of hybrids, then in fact with 2.3-2.9% diesels, even you will not acknowledge how long and how far ANY off the shelf as well as any new technology has to go. In fact more dollars are invested with the diesel off the shelf technology. If you think that you can shape reality by what you chose to ignore, then your viewpoint is WRONG. Be that as it may, even a broken watch is correct 2 times a day!
I have been pretty clear which avenue I THINK will probably take greater market share, i.e. diesel, during the short term and up to 25-50 years. This of course does not necessarily mean it will happen. At the best, it would mean I'd be early. In the mean time, I will enjoy the 44-62 mpg for hopefully over 500,000 miles.
..."Honda needs to learn we have an offshore oil problem in North America and purchasing those Civics will be a vote in the wrong direction IMO. "...
Not sure why you persist in incorect characterizations (hmm a real trend for you here?) and incorrectly reading the markets. But then again that is your perogative. Again I would say for your nickel, buy something else. It would be interesting to see what you would buy in light of this thread. Right now the new Civic is selling at premium. If anything Honda has successfully read the USA market and given the market what it wants.
Also much more is involved with what you pay for insurance than on the selling price. For example I pay more both vol and % wise for a Civic, TDI, than for a Z06 Corvette (all things being equal)This curiously also happens to be in DESCENDING order. !!?? (Civic being the cheapest, yet being the MOST to insure?? Go figure?)
Regarding reliability, can anyone quantify the difference between the highest and lowest reliability ratings?
Is the difference 1 problem in 10 cars, 1 in 100, 1 in 1000, 1 in 1,000,000?
Logan is $11,800 with taxes. If Renault can make money at these prices then they should export this car.
Actually, I don't really desire a Logan, however, it is a good example of the price advantage of a diesel compared to a hybrid. How many hybrids are for sale anywhere in the world for $11,800 or less?
So if we try to integrate the miniaturization of hybrid technology, the hope would be the "silicon valley" experiences will apply as Toyolla2 alludes. But surely from where the Prius and HCH etc start, is it a realistic (shorter term) expectation to have a 12,000 hybrid? For example to match the 2005 Toyota Echo at 10,000 or the 2004 Honda Civic @ 12,600?
http://www.smartimes.co.uk/pink.htm
This really highlights how disingenuous our own environmental advocates have always been and probably will remain. This can be seen as particularly hypocritical in light of the opinion that foreign oil dependency is a major issue.
Sorry to burst your bubble but it ain't getting 70 mpg, even imperial - around town. No way at all.
It however will get 70 mpg if driven between 70 and 100 kph. At higher speeds wind-buffeting/passing semis make for a hair-raising ride.
You're right. The same people that scream about US not signing the Kyoto Treaty have all but blocked highly FE cars. Diesel trucks are OK though because they are for business. The Smart twofor that is sold in Canada would be the most fuel efficient car in the USA, if available. It would also put out the least amount of GHG. And be CO2 neutral using biodiesel.
Date: February 22, 2006 02:52
Submitted by: Tuan
Source: Reuters
From the article:
"Japan's third-biggest auto maker aims to sell the Fit hybrid as early as next year for around 1.4 million yen ($11,790), or about 200,000 yen more than the gasoline-only version, likely making it the world's first hybrid to cost less than 2 million yen ($16,840), the leading Japanese business daily said on Wednesday.
The model could be launched in the business year starting April 2007 and would be sold globally, the paper said.
A spokesman denied Honda had made any decision on whether to hybridise the Fit, but added it had the technological wherewithal to mount its hybrid system, which twins an electric motor and a conventional engine to save fuel, on most of its vehicles."
More at the link:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060222/tc_nm/autos_honda_hybrid_dc
Interesting
Well, I would be happy for 50 MPG on the short trips I make every day. No hybrids sold here are able to do that on 2-3 mile trips.
If memory serves me correctly the speed limit on Vancouver Island was 90 KMH, about 56 MPH in the US. That may account for the higher mileages reported in the twofor. The Smart car does not seem like a vehicle I would head out onto Interstate 10 and compete with the semi's doing 80 MPH. I don't think the Prius is particularly well suited to cross winds created by big trucks either.
1) I drive 40000 mi annually and @ $2.00/gal I will save $4000 in fuel over 5 years of driving as compared to the 2000 Camry that I was driving; CR's conclusion is false immediately.
2) There is no equivalent ICE only Prius. A buyer has to step down to a Corolla to make CR's comparison;
3) Yes, for the frugal and cost conscious on a budget they should not buy a Prius to help balance their budget. This has always been the case so there's nothing new here.
4) The typical Prius buyer is not a month-to-month budget buyer. They are normally a cash buyer where the price can be anywhere in the $25000 - $35000 range. Thus the whole argument is directed to another range of potential buyers. This is where I do agree with the CR conclusion. For the vast majority of buyers hybrids are not the answer to their budget problems.
Diesels are a very good alternative soon in the future.
Demand/sales are 5/1 comparing CA to the next largest state ( VA ) so initially it's your neighbors who are hogging them all and keeping the rest of the country from the opportunity.
Tradein value on these is ridiculous at the moment, 70% of value with 55K+ miles for example.
Or any other hybrid, and I would add to that the available diesel cars. We don't know enough about the long term reliability of the hybrids to make the kind of predictions that CR has made. If they are analyzing the Classic Prius it should have been compared to the Echo that it was closest to. With less than 2.5 years on the market the Prius II has no real history to make good reliability claims with.
Someone that puts as many miles on a car as you, may very well come out ahead. Someone like myself that puts less than 7000 miles a year on a car will probably never see a savings. Too many complex pieces of equipment for me, in all the new vehicles. We are having fits with all our newest Ford trucks. All the problems are a result of the computerized crap required by the EPA.
Makes sense to me. What do those two states have in common? They are allowing the Prius into the HOV lanes. What will happen to sales when the cap is reached or they take away that privilege?
Why can't we have this???? Yes I know, EPA, CARBS, bla, bla, bla, bla, bla
The Polo is a smaller version of the Golf. From what I have read, they are very popular cars in the EU. Again, I think it comes down to the capacity to build.
Some basic safety standards do need to be met in my opinion but the way they have to be met is ridiculous.
So in effect, the gasser side with the (8 mile per trip) commutes one is talking about is literally flogged and to use an equestrian reference, put away wet. Neither of these conditions are good. Add to that stop and go driving and you have a trifecta of trying conditions. So indeed if the system is not equipped with an absolutely stellar alternator, that is specifically designed to "correctly" replenish the battery, then indeed shorter battery life will happen. One runs the system in a state of perpetual discharge.
I do come from the point of view that any battery that doesn't last at least 10 years is "WEAK"
So guys like you and Gagrice can do the recitations about the winter gig. (another gruesome time for cars):(
HYBRIDS: CRUISIN' FOR A BRUISIN'?
"...how Efficient are Priuses?
Though not scientific, here are some miles per gallon relative to speed estimates given to Mr. Roadshow by Prius owners.
@ 35 mph..................59 mpg
@ 45 mph..................58 mpg
@ 55 mph..................56 mpg
@ 65 mph..................46 mpg
@ 75 mph..................37 mpg
Gov EPA ratings 60 mpg city/51 mpg highway..."
by Doug Griswold-Mercury News
Front page, 1A news: HYBRIDS: CRUISIN' FOR A BRUISIN'?
Gary Richards- Mercury News
SJMN (San Jose Mercury News) March 7.2006 Tues, Mecurynews.com
The title refers to the commute lane camping when a Prius driver is watching his fuel saver screen, ie not paying attention to the traffic conditions.
For those of you who drive a TDI, my guess is that you could achieve this kind of economy at similar speeds, sans an eighty-eight battery pack and all of the other accoutrements found in a Prius.
Does the TDI have readout for fuel economy? I have a CRD with an overhead console and can get average economy readings. At 55 mph, I get a touch over 32.4 mpg while at 62,5 mph I get a nice 31.4 mpg. Not bad for a 4300 pound cinder block.
My Passat has an overall and up to the second readout. I was out this morning on level highway at 70 MPH, It fluctuates from 45-55 MPG. The tach is at 2200 RPM in 5th gear. I just took a 55 mile round trip to the Wild Animal Park and averaged 38.7 MPG on the trip Odometer. That is with a lot of up and down hill driving. We mostly use the back roads, more fun to drive.
So to answer your question directly, MY TDI does NOT have this very useful computer read out tool. I would rather have it than not. Indeed a variety of oems and models do. Since the advent of the so called "fuel crisis", one would think ALL oems would put it in across ALL models, what does it really cost 10 dollars MAX? To me this would be a strong selling point that while using this you can meet or exceed the EPA estimates. So judging by how much I have used it in my Z06 Corvette with 70,000 miles, I have to confess I do not use it as much as I probably should.
If I might agree with your take on the "cinder" block. The results of diesel are truly hidden in plain sight. With no other technological complications other that using a diesel engine, how many gassers weighing 4300#'s do get 31-32 mpg in the real world???
My guess is none. Only thing that might come close is a Toyota Highlander Hybrid in city traffic.
I just have to think Diesel is a better solution, until the Fuel Cell or something better comes along.... I think Hybrids are a "feel good fraud", and a temporary fix at best. Just my answer to the topic above... :P