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Comments
TM
Since I intended to trade instead of invest, I sold my shares within minutes of having purchased them.
Gotta go, again... I'll check back later if I get a chance.
TM
NO... don't buy. IMO
TM
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2011/06/16/bear-rumblings-qqqs-apple-move-- - below-200-day-moving-averages/?mod=yahoobarrons
Have spend nearly the past week in NYC - no signs of economic malaise anywhere I have been, but admittedly half the people on the streets are western Europeans taking advantage of a worthless dollar.
Nothing is wrong with AAPL. It's the trading "dippos" of the world that are wrong.
Btw, how is the 89 Octane working out for you?
I just want to say that our government is mostly comprised of selfish partisan jackasses.
It's been that way for quite some time now. Pathetic.
If any of us ran our companies or our households as does the government... we would FAIL!! I'll say it again... we would FAIL!! So, how is it that our government can somehow continue to do what is a FAILURE of policies and procedures?
And, how is it that when some HUGE corporations in the US are ever on the brink of FAILURE, our FAILURE of a governerment has a history of bailing them out! And then those companies continue to do what they always did... just like our government continues to do what it always does... spend more money than it has, and wastefully... directed towards pet projects, entitlements, waayyy over-priced military expenditures, and social programs that don't work, just to name a few.
Do I want to invest in our stock market right now? Well, it's a mixed bag. Some of the COMPANIES that make up the stock market are doing pretty good, but some aren't... but no matter how well or poorly they do, they are within the midst of a STRUGGLING economic environment, due to INSANE government economic policies and financial practices.
Don't blame the companies... although some of them are messed up, most are OK... blame the GOVERNMENT for this negative situation. Blame our politicians. They are the ones to blame... IMHO.
TM
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
We'll fill up with 89 on the next go round. Given the MB experience I expect good things.
Didn't buy more Apple but I thnk we saw the bottom so I'm sorry I missed it.
That might be OK. But from my perspective... maybe not.
Firstly, I really hope you and the rest of the gang here see what I've been trying to tell you all for about 7 weeks now. I called this correction with a bullseye hit, and I have been soooo patiently posting that it's not over, it's not over, it's not over... but almost no one here with the exception of Gary (gagrice) seemed to ever believe me... instead I was reading a bunch of optimistic posts about how great everything seems to be... all the same while I was patiently posting about the depths of the problems that confront us.
Sure, it's possible that the correction is now over, and even I can see the possibility at this point, but frankly, I STILL don't think we have seen the bottom. Now, unlike the last 7 weeks whereby I was dead on the market, this time I admit I am not quite as sure moving forward, but I DO INDEED still tend to think there are more market woes ahead.
I am perfectly willing to be wrong on this, but I've got to go with my gut. For that reason, I am NOT going to invest in any big way in this market yet. I might day trade to try to pick up some quick gains, but lately my schedule has confounded any of my trading efforts, and every time I started to do any day trading or short-term trading, I have had to bail out almost immediately, because I haven't been able to pay close enough attention to the situation, which is necessary to day trade. It's been frustrating.
But to the bigger picture, I know I could be very wrong here, but I don't need to hit another bullseye to get back in the market as long as it is a bull market. I have been mostly in cash for quite a while, with small exceptions, and almost any stocks I buy will be much cheaper for me to own than if I had held on to them during the correction.
Again, I still think there are some serious wrinkles for the market to work through. In addition, I have some concerns regarding the next round of earnings reports, which also make me a bit cautious.
At a minimum I think the market should re-test it's low, if not go lower.
Anyway... I REALLY believe that if the market hits a more solid low, it would ultimately be GOOD for the market moving forward.
So, what's the bottom line here for me? Well, as hard as it is to be so patient for nearly TWO MONTHS now, and as FRUSTRATING as it has been... I am STILL going to WAIT and hold onto CASH until I think it's the right time to pounce.
Trust me, this is truly soooo difficult... but I can NOT let my hopes and emotions compromise my convictions.
EDIT: I will not let the media hype surrounding Greece distract me. Haven't you noticed that the market correction started BEFORE Greece was in the picture? Now, all of a sudden Greece is the problem and the solution to our market correction? That's nuts. All that could happen is that the Greece problem gets solved, the market bounces... but then we are still in the same place we were before the media shifted everyone's attention... THAT's really stupid.
EDIT 2: AAPL is starting to look attractive anywhere around the $320-$325 level, IMO.... BTW, I posted this as an attractive target over a WEEK OR TWO AGO! That said... it makes me a buyer, but very carefully... only 50 shares to start. Could be even more downside.
EDIT 3: What's it take to get through to you guys? I posted for WEEKS about all of this, and you guys thought I was blowing smoke.
TM
But, WHICH stocks are the best values left behind in the wake of the correction?
Let's hear from you guys. From all of your perspectives, which stocks are the best values out there?
I bought a SMALL amount of AAPL today. What about the financials?... GS and I mentioned them recently. Is the tech sector beat up enough yet?
If we all do our homework NOW... and identify the bargains... we WILL profit from it. Isn't that the idea? So, let's do it. Let's really try to identify the stocks that are starting to look like values due to the correction.
TM
http://seekingalpha.com/article/273440-apple-s-valuation-the-one-article-every-i- - - - nvestor-should-read
I did. I made money riding C, F and AAPL on the way down. However I do think there is some up side coming to these shares soon.
Len... Are you suggesting that Apple's earnings are going to be THAT good... to hit an ALL-TIME HIGH????? :surprise:
My concern is that many companies will report earnings LESS than desireable, and that it will NOT be good for the stock market.
TM
I don't buy into doom and gloom either, and I've already posted many times that I see the media sensationalizing everything... with talking heads saying all kinds of BS. In fact, I just posted about how Greece is suddenly being shown as "the issue", when in my opinion, it's NOT.
And, I don't agree with you that corporate profits will be "fine"... some perhaps, but overall, I do NOT think we are going to see the same level of corporate profits we've seen previously. In fact, I am willing to bet you on this.
Also, I disagree with you that the next earnings report from AAPL will result in an all-time high for the stock.
TM
I'll check back later when I get a chance.
TM
Now you are being more realistic.
TM
TM, I believe you are overreacting towards your convictions and what others were thinking. My main disagreement with you has been that I did not see another stock market or economic major collapse. I was not disagreeing that there could be a correction. I have not been anywhere near as negative as you have been about the market or the economy. Time will tell who's right. Just the other day, you mentioned that you thought the Dow "should" (yes, you said "should" and not "will") drop another 1,000-2,000 points. This suggests that you are quite negative about the market/economy. I strongly disagreed with that statement. I also said this past Tuesday (I believe) that the market (on that day) was acting like you would be right, but then I followed it by saying "just wait until the next day" and it will act like you are wrong. The bottom line is that I do believe we have either reached the bottom or we are very close to the bottom of the correction.
Btw, I did listen to your concerns a few weeks ago and sold most (sold all of it in the E-Trade accounts) of my AAPL shares. I have been looking to buy some back at lower prices. My first purchase was around $331 I believe and I just bought 40 more shares today at about $321. It has been an amazing roller coaster for AAPL the past several days. I will buy a little more if it drops down to $318.
I guess I will add one more thing here and I hope you don't take it the wrong way. You seem obsessed with being right all the time. No one is perfect. Everybody makes mistakes once in a while. I hope you take this as a bit of constructive criticism. We've all become friends here and I greatly appreciate your amazing contributions to this forum.
EDIT: I just bought another 45 shares at about $320 and change before the close.
TM
Personally I would rather have 4 shares of McDonald's (MCD) paying about $10 a year in dividends than 1 share of AAPL paying zero. Apple is greedy and want to keep all the profit for themselves. At least that is the way I see it and maybe other investors feel the same way.
You might have a point here. I am hoping/thinking, however, that instead of greed, Apple has a grandiose plan that will be announced in the not too distant future.
Well said......I`v posted way more than I usually do, with the objective of `an even keel`....I hope it`s been helpful, and wish all `the best` Tony
Charlie... help me out here... I honestly do not recall ever posting that I saw another stock market or economic collapse... or anything to that effect. And, I can't find anything in the archives where I ever posted that.
So, I do not know how you could have a disagreement over something I never posted.
I do recall that I have posted about this correction from the beginning, and at first I wasn't at all that concerned about it,... but as it continued, I knew it wasn't going to be a small one, and I posted to that effect... and I cited (more than once) many of the ongoing negative economic and political circumstances that the market has been trying to digest.
Throughout it all, I never predicted a market collapse, but I did insist that the correction was going to continue, when others here weren't as sure. That's OK... no big deal. It's already a done deal. Whether it continues or not... it already went for 7 weeks. So, is it Ok for me to feel good about "getting it right"?
TM
I think the vast majority expects the correction to be over at some point relatively soon... but no one knows EXACTLY when... and there are some differences with regards to how much lower the market will go before returning to it's upward trend.. Regardless, it's been a long 7 weeks.
Now that most of the damage is already done, it sure makes it EASY to say that things are going to get better soon... doesn't it?
The only differences I am aware of that I have with your outlook is that I don't think the corporate earnings will be quite as rosy as you seem to indicate. They'll be Ok, but not as good as you suggest. And, I also don't think the consumer is spending quite as much as you seem to post. I think the data will ultimately back me up on both of my points... but we will have to wait and see.
TM
Regards,
OW
That is the reason I agree with your cautious approach to the market. It could go into free fall at any time on the slightest whim or rumor. I am personally well insulated with a good retirement and lots of savings. My family, friends and neighbors are not doing so well.
Charlie, Len, (and Tony?) have the perspective of a robust economy, and Gary and I (and you?) have the perspective of an economy that has been propped up with crutches and limping along. The crutches are QE1 and QE2, and the limping along has been the nearly-catastrophic housing crisis, the very high unemployment, the high costs of gasoline, and the high costs of healthcare and gasoline, added to inflated food prices,
I know politics is a touchy subject, but Charlie defends Obama... while I see an admistration wanting higher taxes, restrictive burdens on small businesses, invasive social programs, and a larger government that spends too much. These are very bad things for our country, IMO.
Pointing out these problems does NOT mean that I am expecting doom and gloom, as has been suggested. It just means that they are genuine factors that can't be ignored when looking at the situation honestly.
I love the truth. I love digging and researching to find it. I like seeing it, when it's obvious, or looking past the smoke and mirrors. I like to align myself with the truth. I don't like putting a spin on what is really happening, as does the media. The truth is what is "right" and I am driven (perhaps obsessed, as Charlie puts it) to maintain a truthful perspective as much as possible.
So... what happens between now and Q4 is the question. We have gone further along with correction than some here and elsewhere anticipated. But now what? Will it continue?
The better we all are at understanding what our situation truly is and will likely be, the better we can plan an investment and trading strategy. And, if we are "right" about it, we have a much greater chance for success. Isn't that "right"?
TM
That's a terrific post. Well-written, and I agree. However, while the stock market often is disconnected from the actual economy... there are sometimes sobering moments when the stock market aligns with the truth of the state of our affairs, and that's when bubbles burst, or we get a correction... as we've been experiencing the latest "reality check".
These "reality checks" are necessary, otherwise the market starts getting an overdose of Kool-Aid, and investors get a distorted view that everything is fine... When in reality it is not.
TM
I realize that CA is not the same as everywhere else. I think here the housing has not yet bottomed out. The banks are over burdened with empty homes. Homes with people not paying their mortgages for 3 or more years.
The house at the end of my street I have been watching finally sold. It has been empty for almost 2 years. The last payment was made the end of 2007. It sold in 2005 for just over $700k according to the tax record. It had a 1st of $548k and a 2nd loan of $65k, both from WAMU (Chase). I talked to the new owner that is remodeling it. He got it on a short sale for $330k. Took over a year of negotiating. This is a beautiful little 2200 sq ft hacienda style home with a pool and a citrus orchard.
The housing market is catastrophic. As more people come to the realization they are over their head in a home they will follow others and just not pay. When they get the boot they move on and let the tax payers make up the difference.
My sister in AZ just informed me she quit making the payments on her Casa Grande home a few months ago. She paid in the $140s about two years ago for her brand new home. Several foreclosures in her gated community have gone in the $90k range. She plans to just leave AZ and move back to CA with her daughter.
We have yet to hit bottom. How the housing effects the stock market is anyone's guess. I don't see any moves by the Federal government to improve the situation. Printing more money is not the answer.
TM, I did not say I expect a robust economy. If you check my post(s) from over a week ago, I stated that I expect a slow economic growth for a while.
Pointing out these problems does NOT mean that I am expecting doom and gloom, as has been suggested.
The reason people like myself have been stating that you are very negative on the market is entire due to your statement from several days ago that "the Dow should drop another 1,000-2,000 points". Whether you meant it or not is another story.
I love the truth. I love digging and researching to find it. I like seeing it, when it's obvious, or looking past the smoke and mirrors. I like to align myself with the truth. I don't like putting a spin on what is really happening, as does the media. The truth is what is "right" and I am driven (perhaps obsessed, as Charlie puts it) to maintain a truthful perspective as much as possible.
I also very much seek the truth. I cannot stand it when people in power intentionally lie or spin the truth. However, there is a difference between the truth and being "obsessed" about being right all the time. I am not afraid of being wrong and I never deny it when I am wrong. I believe Tony agreed with what I stated yesterday about being obsessed about being right but he was trying very hard to be diplomatic and did not spell it out for you.
Above all, I don't wan't you to get upset by this. Let's now move on and continue to present our thoughts on the market/economy. You have had invaluable information and insight on the subject.
See my above post. I already answered this.
What's it take to get through to you guys? I posted for WEEKS about all of this, and you guys thought I was blowing smoke.
This statement above by you on Thursday, I believe rubbed some people (including myself) the wrong way. It's like you telling us that we are dumb and you are very smart. You can feel good about yourself without rubbing it into people's faces.
What do you mean "Whether I meant it or not?" What's that supposed to mean?
Do I have a history of posting things I don't mean?... which would then give you reason to say that?
As far as obsessing about being right...
I don't want you to get upset either, but let's be honest here. I think it's partly due to your self-admitted overly-optimistic perspective that you have at times. Let's face it, you have been emotionally tied to AAPL for quite a while, and it has clearly been frustrating for you. You've practically had a love-affair with the stock. I'm not saying there is ANYTHING wrong with your perspective on AAPL, but it is the one you have had. Many of us share an interest in the stock, including myself.
However, it seemed to me that when this last correction was going on, I wasn't "getting through to you" and some of the others (I apologize if that choice of words was offensive, as it wasn't meant to be) because it seemed to me that you didn't want to face the truth about the correction or about your darling stock, which had been so good to you for so long. It's almost like you took the decline of AAPL personally, and now you seem to be upset with me for being honest about the decline of the stock and the potential negatives of the company. My expression was obviously, more than anything, an expression of frustration
I admit I hammered a bit hard about this, but I felt frustrated that it was somehow not OK to post what I saw to be a truthful partially negative situation with regards to the US economy... and every time I would post something negative, the replies were twisted and exaggerated into "doom and gloom". Even the post I made suggeting that the market should go down to a more reasonable 10K - 11K was (and STILL IS by your latest posts) interpretted as doom and gloom. This is just not the case, and I mean nothing of the sort.
You also posted that you had a disagreement with me over the economic collapse that I had been suggesting, but I never posted anything of the sort.
So, being "obsessed with being right" is largely about getting to the truth, and about being understood. When you post "whether I meant it or not", that suggests to me that you don't believe me, and that I have a lack of credibility here. When you post that I suggested an "economic collapse" that I did not post, then it suggests to me that I am not understood or that I have a lack of credibility.
This is not new. This communication has been going on for quite a while. I remember when Len (and OW) had the opinion years ago that oil prices were going to drop dramatically or even fall off a cliff, and I argued that they were not going to do that, IMO. We each argued the case for our perspective. Ultimately, someone would be right, and certainly the truth was the most important aspect of the argument, because when we are making investment decisions based upon these discussions, being "right" can impact those investment decisions and the results of those decisions. But, none of us ever got upset about it.
Also, I recall having to "prove" myself and my "timing" techniques to nearly everyone here... and the weird thing is that I had to prove it over and over and over again, before I was given any credit for the legitamacy of moving "in" and "out" of the market. I was considered the "dumb" one that had no idea of what he was talking about. There were relentless posts about how is was impossible to time the market, and how no one has EVER done it... and no matter how many times I proved myself, it still required yet one more time, until FINALLY some of you accepted that it is indeed possible to move in and out of the market successfully, if you pay close attention, and realize that you don't have to hit a perfect bullseye for the technique to work. So, in that regard, I had to prove I was "right", not because I wanted to, but because it was the ONLY way many folks here would believe me and give me credibility. It was only after ALL of that, did my timing technique get the same respect as "buy and hold" technique. I never took it wrong, never got upset... but I did stay the course and ultimately stuck with my convictions and stuck with my gut, as often as possible, as Tony had wisely suggested to me.
So... being right with regards to the market is something that is important to me. Guys like Jim Cramer are the same way. It is a good thing.. and just like Jim Cramer, I admit when I am wrong, and I have plenty of posts here to prove it. But, being right about the market, or the direction of AAPL, for example, can make a huge difference in our financial picture. Again, I don't always get it right, but I admit I like to get it right... it helps me make better investment decisions and be more profitable.
I have NEVER tried to make anyone here look dumb, nor would I ever do so. But, it's important to be a good sport about getting it "wrong", and I believe I have always done so when I've gotten it wrong. I believe everyone else has also been a good sport as well. While we might "compete" with each other only in terms of "arguing" our perspectives, it should all be for the sake of enjoyment and financial reward, and not to be taken personally. If you believe that my post was an attempt to make you or anyone here look dumb, I apologze for that potential interpretation, as nothing could be further from the truth. If I thought you guys were dumb, I wouldn't spend any time here!! In fact, I have a ton of respect for all of your opinions and perspectives, and I believe them to be quite valuable. Goodness, I have purchased a Lexus automobile based upon your perspective, and Len has purchased a Mercedes, which might be a result of our discussions during prior years on the "other" forum. We have definitely impacted one another, and that would not happen if we didn't repsect each others point of view. Again, I would not spend sooooo much time here if I thought you were all dumb.
I have obviously hurt your feelings somehow, or rubbed you the wrong way, and I apologize for having done so. That is the last thing I would ever have intended by posting here.
EDIT: I certainly hope that this forum continues, and the members continue to post here... in the usually friendly and fun atmosphere. If not, however, it's certainly not the end of the world, but I would miss it.
TM
That said, everyone here has something to offer and it would be a shame if anyone felt that they had to watch their words for fear of offending someone or of being criticized.
When all is said and done, we are all trying to do the same thing...survive and thrive in very tough and challenging economic times. Just remember that many heads are better than one and that there is something to be gained by hearing other ideas and perspectives.
We don't all have to agree all the time and in those instances we should just agree to disagree and move on...with no hard feelings.
Tag, this is not a reply to your post, your post just happened to be last.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
However, Gagrice (Bob?) has it pegged. The unwashed, hidden credit problems in the finance system show their ugly heads in the economy in housing and employment and lack thereof. Even the employed are not that confident from what I am reading from real people in the market and business. The banks are gearing for more layoffs and businesses are not hiring in any real volume to affect the economy in a broad and strong trend afaic.
Food and energy prices have risen far faster than real wage growth so the consumer affect has been muted. Housing was covered already and all of these weigh on the downside of the scale more than the upside at the moment. I do see more spending locally in our markets, however, which shows confidence is all negative.
Tech is strong and consumer cyclical seem strong no doubt due to firmer prices. The productivity gains that are apparent in the manufacturing sector continue to be another positive signs that business balance sheets are stronger despite the employment picture.
As politics usually messes things up, the story remains the same for this year. I see Q4 the start of a more stable upside trend. Until then, turbulence is the picture painted by the markets so far.
At the end of the day, reality will be somewhere in the middle!!
Regards,
OW
Gary
Not sure that I have pegged it very often. I hit some and miss others both in stock and real estate. Though the latter has been better overall for me.
I thought the RE market was going to head back up last year and almost bought a house the bank owned. Glad they did not take my lowball offer. It is now worth even less than I offered. It is difficult for me to be optimistic with the misery index sitting where it was in the early 1980s. I was part of that during the late 1970s. I don't want to repeat it.
Back in early April, I posted that I sensed a bit of a slowing, and you responded almost at the same time that you to were experiencing the same with some portion of your printed business, which was a very early indicator.......From that point on , we all digressed to a degree, as the economy was slowing.....You took advantage of that with a series of very quick trades, where as I chose to do nothing of importance.......Jflix did a tiny bit of maneuvering, and what I was hoping to do was give some support that I didn`t think this was anything more that the `media`, and the brokers over blowing the softness.....
You `my friend` were a little harsh with us, your friends, and as we are a sensitive `lot` we didn`t take it so well.....What sort of a group would we be, if we didn`t go to bed and forget and forgive??