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Back a week or so ago, when things were looking bleak, would have been the time to begin making a position, going into the earnings, and then if earnings were as expected, building on that....It sort of goes with `dollar cost averaging`, which works (mentally) a bit differently than thought...
If you want to trade, as Mr Tag, then my thoughts aren`t for you, as apple is such a company that it just takes luck to buy and sell it vs holding a decent position til it misses a quarter or so...
On your` trade` , I was happy for you, making a profit, and frankly with the market making such a large advance into such uncertainty, you better stay on your toes....as I`m sure you will
Good Luck to all Tony
I'm not married to AAPL but I'm in at an average that is half today's value (before that I sold out at $128, after the jump from the mid 80's and I put that stop loss in when the stock was at $139, so I never expected it to drop to $128) and I see at least two more great earnings quarters. So I lost out at a price rise from 128 to 160 when I bought all of it back and then bought some more at $304 earlier this year. Stocks like MCD and BBBY I'd actually be more married to. I agree with Tag that tech stocks have more limited surity and usually over time whereas brand winning stocks like BBBY, PG etc have an almost eternal upside as long as you can deal with the ups and downs. But AAPL remains IMO seriously undervalued and is still well into its run. But someday it may well face the issues of MSFT, INTC etc. IBM is a little different and fits more the profile of the others I noted.
VERY true.
Tony... I have an interesting investing/trading approach I have working with all week that is doing very well so far, and I want to work with it for a while longer before I post about it. I am even making gains during today's down market! :surprise:
TM
Tony,
You are too kind. Neither you nor anybody else here or anywhere is to blame. It was my own blunder. Btw, my mistake is not the end of the world. It is just that we are all competitive and I hate to lose in the markets. In this case, it was not a loss but I left a lot of money on the table. But that's the way it goes sometimes.
BTW, here is a little tidbit on AAPL from this morning:
Also of note, AAPL (+0.1%) ests and target were raised to $500 at Canaccord.
Regards,
OW
Silver is for "trading", while gold is for "investing"... IMHO.
I keep some gold, along with fixed securities as my long-term "untouchables". I do so by owning a comfortable number of GLD shares, which is the SPDR GOLD TRUST ETF, and it can be bought and sold easily on the stock market. I highly recommend it as the safest and easiest way to invest in gold.
Silver can be profitable, but it can be risky as heck.
Good luck.
TM
The publisher Leopold Ullstein wrote: "People just didn't understand what was happening. All the economic theory they had been taught didn't provide for the phenomenon. There was a feeling of utter dependence on anonymous powers -- almost as a primitive people believed in magic -- that somebody must be in the know, and that this small group of 'somebodies' must be a conspiracy."
When the 1,000-billion Mark note came out, few bothered to collect the change when they spent it. By November 1923, with one dollar equal to one trillion Marks, the breakdown was complete. The currency had lost meaning.
What happened immediately afterward is as fascinating as the Great Inflation itself. The tornado of the Mark inflation was succeeded by the "miracle of the Rentenmark." A new president took over the Reichsbank, Horace Greeley Hjalmar Schacht, who came by his first two names because of his father's admiration for an editor of the New York Tribune. The Rentenmark was not Schacht's idea, but he executed it, and as the Reichsbank president, he got the credit for it. For decades afterward he was able to maintain a reputation for financial wizardry. He became the architect of the financial prosperity brought by the [non-permissible content removed] party.
Obviously, though the currency was worthless, Germany was still a rich country -- with mines, farms, factories, forests. The backing for the Rentenmark was mortgages on the land and bonds on the factories, but that backing was a fiction; the factories and land couldn't be turned into cash or used abroad. Nine zeros were struck from the currency; that is, one Rentenmark was equal to one billion old Marks. The Germans wanted desperately to believe in the Rentenmark, and so they did. "I remember," said one Frau Barten of East Prussia, "the feeling of having just one Rentenmark to spend. I bought a small tin bread bin. Just to buy something that had a price tag for one Mark was so exciting."
All money is a matter of belief. Credit derives from Latin, credere, "to believe." Belief was there, the factories functioned, the farmers delivered their produce. The Central Bank kept the belief alive when it would not let even the government borrow further.
Sound familiar??
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/shared/minitext/ess_germanhyperinflati- on.html
And, no, you would not buy things with gold nuggets, like the wild west. It would simply be like pre-Nixon days.
TM
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
I mentioned on Friday that I have an all-new investing/trading strategy I am trying. It is not complicated at all and I will post the details in the future, AFTER I can determine the real results. So far seems good, and even made gains on a losing day Friday... but I want to make sure over enough time that it can work. And, if possible, I want to understand the nature of its success or failure and the level of risk.
But, back to the double-dip... is the media full of hype? Or is the pathetic jobs report the tip of the iceberg, or a sign of worse things to come? Did we just experience a false rally? Or will earnings reports drive the market higher?
TM
TOTALLY agree. I've posted before just how tragic this presidential term is because the opportunity for the "change" that Obama promised was really there... Americans were open-minded and ready... but Obama didn't take advantage of the opportunity, and we don't have any big positive "change" that he promised. In fact, very little has changed. The housing crisis is actually worse, the unemployment situation is still pathetic, and there's been no "change" or anything new to our tax structure... only an extension of the same Bush tax situation, which Obama was against. He wanted to RAISE taxes instead of provide any relief. And, there's been no "change" to the burdens upon American business, especially small business which is the backbone of American business. Heck, there hasn't even been any ATTEMPT to help American small business with some sort of positive "change".
To put this in perspective, just consider that Canada, for example, has a much smaller work force, yet Canada has added many, many more jobs within their smaller economy than we have added here in the United States.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that we are no longer competitive enough. If we want to get in the game, we need a President that promotes policies that reward the development and growth of businesses right here in America. Make the United States one of the BEST places on earth for businesses to locate themselves, and for busineses to expand and hire employees. In the end, that would create MORE revenue for the government. It would stimulate job creation and consumer spending, and nourish the housing market.
Higher taxes on fewer businesses does not promote hiring and growth and does not nourish an economy. It results in smaller revenues to the government... and we see the proof right before our eyes.
President Obama is well-meaning, but he is an idiot... it's pure and simple. I know that sounds harsh, but it's the fact that he cannot understand the negatives of high taxes and business burdens vs. the positives of reducing business burdens and promoting tax policies that strongly encourage businesses to locate and expand right here in the United States. This president had the opportunity to start an economic expansion wildfire!!... but instead he focused on a contraversial health care program for personal reasons, due to his family's sad health care history. He missed that opporunity, and he lied to us all. He can give a great speech, but he doesn't know how to be President.
He truly does not understand what it takes to fix America.
Here's a partial to-do list...
-require a balanced budget,
-Fix our borders,
-illegal aliens are illegal... period.
-make English our "official" language.
-get rid of excessive entitlements,
-stop throwing away massive money to help and aid other countries that won't even help themselves, and that hate us.
-reduce the burdens on businesses,
-reward the implementation/creation/expansion of businesses,
-reduce personal and corporate taxes, and simplify the tax code.
-quit talking about an energy policy and actually have one that will make us energy strong and independent,
-make lobbying illegal or place major restrictions upon it,
-insist on fair trade policies that have consequences when they are violated,
-eliminate racial quotas as they are actually reverse-discrimination,
-legalize and heavily tax marijuana,
-impose revenue-generating monetary fines on those guilty of minor crimes instead of jailing minor criminals which significantly wastes taxpayer's, money,
-Place restrictions on speculative trading of commodities that are critical to the well-being of our country such as oil,
-Severely punish stock market manipulation and open up investment restrictions that currently restrict the public and that currently favor banks, congressman, and privileged traders,
-increase the national speed limit!
-streamline the FDA approval process for new drugs that cure/treat.
-stop frivilous lawsuits (they drive up the costs for businesses, doctors, etc.)
-make it illegal for unions to require employees to become members,
-restore the gold standard, as we discussed earlier,
-create a national lottery,
and plenty more...
feel free to chime in.
TM
Just read that half the jobs created over the current administration have been in TX. If states want to encourage business they need to look at what TX is doing right. First off is pass a state "Right to Work" law. Look at the difference in job creation in the 29 states with RTW compared to those held prisoner to labor unions.
I have said many times that I am not anti union. Just when they kill the goose laying the golden eggs. The public employee unions should never have existed. Even socialist like FDR believed that. When the people giving the raises have no skin in the game they will give away the farm. In the case of legislators they trade political favors with public employees to keep getting elected. The political calls I got in the last election were all from public employee unions.
I just wonder if the controllers of this corporatist oligarchy (I mean republic, sorry) would ever allow a candidate with such ideals to become viable.
Canadian economy is a difficult beast though. Austerity will be coming there soon, along with a housing market collapse.
Gary, here is one of his Executive Orders, EO13575. Also known as the White House Rural Council, it was issued in June, during the Weiner scandal so no one would notice.
This one should make the alarm bells go off for anyone who owns any land. Just google it.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
The main reason that our RE did not go in the tank too deeply back in 2009 is that the majority of home owners had sufficiently large equity in their houses/condos. So the markets simply dropped a little due to lack of buyers, but there was also no panic selling and the bottom was quickly reached.
Working Canadians are used to high taxes with little benefits in return, so I don't think we are in the same boat as some European countries.
This is actually one of the best comments you made in that post and you made a lot of great points in an overall great post. I'd extend it to companies and people because many of the highest earners make their money on paper and the actual cash that underlies their income is repaid debt. I know guys that make $1mln plus a year but debt repayments are half of that so their real cash intake is $500K. But they are taxed at $1mln and they are the folks we are heavily reliant on for job growth. This is what Obama and the democrats d'ont get and probably never will get. In their mind income is cash and that's all there is to it. Obama has to understand that its all about job growth from here on in and anything he does to raise taxes on anyone goes against that. Yeah I can see his point about wanting higher taxes out of a hedge fund manager that makes $10mln to a billion+ a year in real cash. I want it too. But like our court system sometimes the most guilty get to walk because of the system and the tax revs on that income group d'ont amount to a hill of beans in the numbers we are talking about and ultimately take money out of the economy. That's why spending cuts and shrinking government, coupled with incentives that add jobs are the only answers.
One thing bothering me is the tremendous amount of excess cash sitting in cororations. Corporations are owned by taxpayers ultimately and having that cash tied up, and in this case we are talking over $2 trillion, and taken out of the economy is not helping anyone. Maybe we need something that compels corporations to pay dividends on net cash positions. Would Apple hoard $65bln in cash (going to $100 bln soon) if it was taxed on say anything over $25bln in net cash every year. D'ont know if its an answer but having that level of cash out of the economy is not helping anyone.
One different way of taxing wealth on individuals is not to tax their earnings but to tax cash accumulated. At least that way you d'ont tax cash not made. Pick a number - $50mln, 75mln 100mln etc and have banks report it on cash accumulated throughout the world and tax that at higher rates. Maybe it gets them spending, maybe it's a real tax that overcomes all the monies hidden in 1040 manipulation, but the key here is to get at excessive over accumulated cash and get it back into the economy (assuming you d'ont have a democratic that spends more of it on excess government). We need to dislodge some of the excess cash that has built up in individuals and corporations and wil get greater and greater and pour some of it back into the ecnomy. I'll bet you if every Apple shareholder got a $500 distribution check they'd spend it. Plus many corporations are getting nothing from the market for having all this cash. The economy is akin to a swimming pool to me. You need to cleanse it and get it back into circulation. Any buildup that keeps water from returning to the pool means you need to add new water. In this case that new water is money, whether it's by debt from other cash hoarders or by creation of new. Maybe it's simple - require companies that grow cash by certain amounts to pay back 80% of it as dividends or face a 50% excess cash growth tax. You will need to establish certain levels of cash for different corporstions here. The answer isn't easy but it bothers the hell out of me that trillions of dollars are out of the economy and folks are suffering so greatly. Of course Obama has to make these distributions tax free for this to work.
One great alternative to me is to have a flat tax and a spending tax on everthing. Lower the overall tax rate and add a national consumption tax at the same time. The latter has always been the way to get at the underground money. Almost no business in this electronic age operates without credit cards so a sales or onsumption tax should be easy. The latter is another way of picking up some of the hidden money the tax codes with all their complications allow you to protect. It also simplifies everything. We need some new and fresh ideas because the old system has led us to excessive greed instead of real capitalism.
Anyone with an ounce of sense can see this. As hard as it is to believe, the good of our Country is taking a back seat to politicians who want nothing but to keep and increase their influence and power. That is the real problem we are faced with and until the voters force a change we will continue on this downward spiral. What a shame...
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Sort of a late Sunday down here in S C , but on my trip back , I have never-Never- seen the traffic backed up so to get on the I95 from I26...No wreck, just backed up five miles to get on the highway from the other one.....People are vacationing to beat the band...so things aren`t nearly what the news media say they are....The huge majority of people are O K...That will start to be reported when it so suits the media -and I really think the politicians will control that...Unfortunate...I don`t believe any statistical report from the government..
I totally agree with you about the amount of money corporations are holding back...The laws you speak of are already on the books and were used in the seventies and eighties to move money out of dead pockets....I think something will happen..
Just to venture a guess, but I think by next year the economy will be humming, and Obama will be re-elected...What I hope is that the senate and house will be solidly republican, and therefore the overspending will be brought back to a reasonable level....and the governmental rules diminished ...
I appreciated some of the names of your funds, and the few I looked up seemed to sport hefty returns over the last year or so....I mean just to get a return of forty percent is great and will make you a rich man as time goes on....I think Peter Lynch said `you only have to hit a few like that in your lifetime`...We just have to be careful not to get caught up in a down draft.....
What I don`t agree with is any additional tax from what ever source....Don`t need any trickery to just raise more money...The trillions of extra spending just needs to be wound down, then after that is accomplished, re furbish the tax code....I can`t believe our country has gotten to this state from a surplus to such a deficit in such a short time frame....in fact I just don`t understand it.....
Tony
I love that no one is taking responsibility. Who is to blame that taxes are too high and sour debt on the books of most financial institutions (global) remains the main reason why the "recovery" will be flat for the foreseeable future.
Why can't the "leaders" lead us out of this with a sound program of flat taxes (Major League Reform) and laser-beam oversight instead of killer regulations?
Why does health care cost more than housing costs? Why is the stay in a hospital if you are sick for 1 week a bankruptcy proposition if you don't have insurance?
Why do the heads of the automotive industry and also Edmunds.com want a higher gas tax that will no doubt force consumers to buy electric vehicles?
Why does it cost $120,000 for a college education on average and there are no jobs to move into after graduation?
Riddle me this, Batman?
Regards,
OW
Thanks Len!
One great alternative to me is to have a flat tax and a spending tax on everthing.
Agree on the flat tax, as I have posted before. I think a flat tax would be terrific for America. Disagree on the consumption tax, however, except for certain items such as alcohol, tobacco, and legalized marijuana. The reason I disagree is that the spending consumer is the engine of our economy, and it concerns me to put a government-controlled consumption tax in the way. Some State sales taxes are an example of how they just get higher and higher and higher. If implemented on a Federal level, I am certain that the Feds would get greedy over time, and that such a tax could reduce important consumer spending and even add inflationary pressures by making things more expensive to buy.
Look at what happened with the Alternative Minimum Tax. Over the years, it has evolved into something horrible, and it is now a stealth tax penalty that has crept into middle class tax returns.
Keep the government out of as much as possible, and reduce and contain the size of government. A smaller efficient government has a smaller requirement for revenues. A large obese government must be fed and therefore has a large appetite for revenues.
The biggest point I was trying to make in my post was that even if the economy is indeed doing "better" than it was, which I think is clearly the case... nothing much has CHANGED. We will still have the same overall problems that continue to plague us... such as a huge deficit, horrible and complicated tax policies, bad immigration policies, non-competitive business climate, and most of the list I posted would still need to be addressed.
So, just because the economy might rebound to some extent, as Tony and the rest of us can see and have pointed out... that doesn't solve America's real fundamental problems. If we don't truly solve those problems, it will only be a matter of time until we are once again facing them head on again, and again, and again. We need to stop that horrible cycle by fixing the real causes. That's the kind of "change" that we really need, and that Obama has not delivered, and has no real intention of delivering to us.
Sure, the economy will slowly get a little better, but... What's really different? What's been fixed? Where's the "change" that was promised?
Without TRULY FIXING AMERICA'S PROBLEMS, it's only a matter of time until those problems put us all in the same boat again.
TM
Tag, your list is very comprehensive but only a bold change will get it, or simply the most important points of it, done. Obama is not the guy to get that done, IMO. Lots of people I talk to want change but they are so mis-informed on economic issues and are looking for either Hillary or a strong Republican. One way or another Obama remains their front choice until they see someone better. So who the Republican party puts up is so critical. Obama has alienated Wall street and business and I think one of the Republican strategies should be to return the real life "Joe the plumber" theme to the front of the their advertisements next year. Imagine Joe standing there and saying, look at how bad jobs are now, imagine what would have happened if you deployed your policies. Obama's dreams go totally opposite of what is needed. Luckily he now has a lot less time to do it in even if he gets re-elected. .
It's up to the GOP to find a better alternative...and this time, their Joe the Plumber better not be a tax dodging deadbeat dad who lies about his business :shades: Until we can get a candidate who is not submissive to Wall St types and banks, nothing will happen.
I am still waiting for our LPL account to be transferred to Scottrade. That is so much BS getting out of an LPL account. They don't let go easy. I am enjoying the Scottrader Streaming Quotes. I have every stock in our 4 portfolios listed so I can watch all at once. I feel like a day trader. I don't think I have the patience to try that. Greed would get in the way I am afraid. Trying to squeeze the last penny out of the trade.
My Jag XK is parked next to a Vette convertible today. Jag is infinately prettier, IMO of course...!
I've never been a "reacher" in housing or anything else. Saved 20 years, that turned into the Jag. Don't know if it's common sense, New England frugaility or just fear. But, if I can't afford it, I don't buy it! Never stopped me/us from spending, as we never have (you're welcome, what's left of the economy!). Just within our means...
'21 Dark Blue/Black Audi A7 PHEV (mine); '22 White/Beige BMW X3 (hers); '20 Estoril Blue/Oyster BMW M240xi 'Vert (Ours, read: hers in 'vert weather; mine during Nor'easters...)
TM
I thought C Corps are taxed on retained earnings in the form of Accumulated Earnings Tax? But there is probably a loop hole out of that tax too.
I don't mind being lucky now and then. I definitely got lucky this time to get out of the market when I did last week, even though I had every intention of staying in, and I also got lucky on the gold index. It wasn't skill... it was all luck this time around.
I shouldn't really say I was "out" of the market. I was out of conventional stocks. I was trading "in" ETFs, and I was in them heavily at the time. I must have lost my mind.
EDIT: I did decide to buy a small position on AAPL today (only 100 shares), with the stock being down) and I might stick with it and "marry" it for a while before "divorcing" it later on down the road. I did this in honor of Charlie.
TM
You hit the nail on the head.
And I think it is simply "wrong" that individual investors cannot play by the same rules as the big boys... and that those rules are essentially written to give those big boys an advantage.
Why is it like that?
TM
Hope that helps.. Tony
All day, every day, I get shut out from executions by a mere 1/10 of a cent. I can't buy or sell competitively when I want to set a limit, for eample, to buy a stock if it goes down to a share price of $35.10, and I sit there and just watch the screen indicate in real-time that the vast majority of the big boys are buying it all by the bucket loads at $35.101, just before it reahes $35.10, and I can't get any. Or, for example if I want to sell a stock that reaches $35.20, and once again the big boys are selling it at $35.199, and it cuts me out once again.
It's BS. And there certainly isn't anything fair about it.
TM
What you are experiencing is `front running` with the tenth of a cent.....Right here in Charleston, is a firm that represents something like twenty percent of all the volume or more....Big sort of secret place...The program can realize very slight imbalances and trade for a fraction of a penny and make money...The large trading desks are right there competing with then, and when a person places an order , in a fraction of a second they can give themselves a chance before anyone else to either trade for their account, or against the customer.....
All the above is just the deceptive stuff that goes on behind the screens....as long as you are aware of it, you can still take your chances with using your own intelligence, and come out on top...Just have to have strong nerves, and believe in yourself....I guess that is why a person feels so smart when they make a profitable trade.....Just remember if you play too long they will get you...Tony
Kind of like hitting a Royal Flush on a Poker machine, and spending all your winnings and savings trying to repeat. The stock market is legal gambling for everyone.
You noted there were ways to dislodge the pockets of cash earlier that go back to the 70's and 80's. Can you note some of them.
An example for our company was you had to have an amount of capitol to start..That usually was the least amount possible....Then the company would have different components that usually made up the whole.....So say we make a good hit one year, and paid ourselves a salary, and at the same time our bank would always want us to leave more capitol in the company--always an argument--which was settled with a compromise....the government would permit a reasonable amount of retained earning in relationship to the amount of business, and also the really big hit would be to `go public`....It didn`t take long for the abuse to show up as we felt we were entitled to whatever we earned, and were loath to pay taxes...same old same old....
The government then came out with excessive salary..We countered with management fees from every source we could that composed the entire company---afterall it was our company....Then with the banks always wanting us to leave more in the company, the government decided that the company was over capitalized, and want a dividend paid..( of course this was everyone-not just our company) passed laws to that effect....We then had to get the bank approval -in our case--and paid a div. in accordance to our starting capitol...Then they wanted that dividend to represent the retained earnings also......What happened next was sub. chap S....
So right now they can decide to enforce all or any of those laws whenever it is politically appropriate to do so, and frankly I`m surprised that hasn`t come into play ...I guess as big companies are just fathering their own nests, and no one is looking out for the rest of us....Who knows....and further these problems in every way will continue as long as there are more than two people....
I greatly appreciate your honoring of me.
Bottom line... you have done great with AAPL, and I hope it continues to do well.
TM
Unfortunately, I did not stay with it as long as Len has. I have not gotten in and out as frequently as you have, but the ultimate, disgraceful "out" was about 10-12 days ago at the lows.