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What Would It Take for YOU to buy a diesel car?
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Now this is NOT to say that his (busiris's) explanation of statistic sampling methods has no traction. It is a tad like asking what time it is and being given explanation of how to build a time piece. Boiler plate that most folks ignore: Your actual mileage will vary depending on how you drive and maintain your vehicle. Interestingly enough it says to see the free fuel economy guide at the dealers or www.fueleconomy.gov.
I mean, if one were to disregard all the published info and instead rely on what one overheard in a bar before shelling out 25 big ones on a Jetta TDI, then they roll bigger dice than I do I guess. :shades:
It also helps explain why the metric system is used everywhere in the world outside of the U.S. and Liberia. Fuel is sold by the litre in the UK, but the roads are still calibrated in statute miles, and MPG using the Imperial gallon is still prevalent there, but litres/100 km is the metric standard on the continent.
Surely, you would admit that FE is a bit more complicated than either heads or tails. Either the engine runs or it doesn't, but at what FE?
Now, as diesels compare to gassers, and this is historically speaking, I agree... Diesels have almost always (maybe even 100% of the time) delivered better FE than gas engines...that's pretty much a given.
I never meant to come across suggesting otherwise.
I don't know if that trend will remain. Gas engines, with all the latest tech gadgetry are getting damned efficient.
My only intent was to demonstrate the significance of an appropriate number of samples when calculating specific odds.
Five flips may give you a great idea of the number of sides a coin has, but five draws would be totally insufficient to tell you (reliably, at least) how many cards are actually in a deck of 52.
As a final note, I once owned a 2005 Chevrolet Aveo. I didn't get anywhere close to the FE estimates, which I found a bit strange, since my driving style almost always allows me to exceed estimates. Over on the Edmunds Aveo forum, if you go back years, you will find the actual mpg numbers running "soup to nuts" on the Aveo.
The point is, a couple of samples on the Aveo FE were meaningless.
Go figure this one out now:
Loss of diesel-rich crude sends oil prices higher (financialpost.com)
Let's see:
The article you post> Price goes up.
Armageddon is due 03/33/33 @ 333 am Price goes up
Armageddon is unknown. Price goes up
Using electric motivation. Price goes up
Using sun and wind. Price goes up
The supply goes up. Price goes up.
The supply goes down. Price goes up
Demand goes up. Price goes up.
Demand goes down. Price goes up.
Export of diesel goes up. Price goes up.
Export of diesel goes down, Price goes up.
Straits of Hormuz free and unencumbered. Price go up
They hate us. Price goes up
They love us. Price goes up
Threaten with blockage> Price goes up
We are recognized internally as Beyond Saudi Arabia of Coal. Price goes up
We are recognized internally as beyond Saudi Arabia of Natural Gas. Price goes up.
Natual gas is at 10 year historical low prices. Price goes up
NON Brent crude much lower than Brent crude. Price goes up.
Canada overflowing with oil wants to sent to US. Price goes up.
Keystone XL disapproved. Price goes up
Passenger diesels limited. Price goes up.
Passenger diesels growing. Price goes up
Obama wants re election. Price goes up
Romney has Swiss bank accounts. Price goes up
They want less taxation on diesel. Price goes up
They want more taxation on diesel. Price goes up
It is hard for me to see a nexus (connection) here!! :sick:
Tell me again why averaging out all the longterm tests on the Internet from credible sources isn't a good indicator of actual MPG one is likely to get. These people drive the cars, using multiple drivers, for a good many months, so why can't we assume, that averaged out, we've pretty much reached the sweet spot in the bell curve?
Now keep in mind I'm searching for a likely real world average as a potential buyer---I'm not out to prove or disprove the person getting 18 mpg or 58 mpg.
So for example, while I am glad that woman won her Civic Hybrid case in small claims court ($10,000 maximum in small claims court), as she would have gotten FAR less in more normal litigation channels, there has to be a travesty of justice, as there is no way that Honda advertised 50 mpg. Again there probably was a RANGE and epa 50C/50 H ratings. I do not know what the sticker says but edmunds.com lists 40-45 mpg. So for example for the price premium and the fact that we post 38-42 mpg on a Civic NON hybrid NO WAY I would get a Civic Hybrid.
But not all crudes are the same. Libya’s civil war had an outsized impact on the oil market last year because the low-sulphur crudes which the country exported were difficult for refiners to replace elsewhere.
The crude in the Prudhoe field went from a tar like substance to a light sweet crude that was used directly in the diesel generators. We could care less about Iran oil as it has a lot of sulfur. So why not put an embargo on it? Saudi oil is generally pretty decent stuff. Then you have to take into consideration the 1000s of products that are made from crude oil. From cloths to tires to roads. I don't think the gas and diesel are the big money makers in a barrel of crude oil. It was not that long ago that gasoline was a useless byproduct that was dumped.
And, that's the logical way to approach it.
Having knowledge of the person getting the high/low FE can cut the number of samples needed to get a level of comfort.
If one knows that low FE is being obtained by Lead-foot Larry, we can factor that into the analysis. Conversely, if we know Harry Hypermiler is reporting excessive FE, the same applies.
The real question is how many standard deviations do you go before one determines, as you said, we're too far outside the accepted norms?
The actual cost of production/delivery does matter in the long term, but over the short haul, the market pricing is far more under the influence of folks placing bets on the future.
Production of crude rarely changes from today to tomorrow, yet the futures price often does. Now, add in the other factors (to name just a few: perceived availability of transport mechanisms, demand, supply, available refining capabilities, political projections.... It's a really long list).
It's much like gambling. Come to think of it, that's exactly what it is. When one guesses wrong, like a gambler, he covers his losses so he can stay in the game.
Let's not kid ourselves. These folks know how to play the game...
After all, I don't drive one car any different than another (easy .vs. foot in the injection unit).
Assuming the EPA standards are equally applied to all car models, I should have a reasonable expectation that my experience in any one car should be indicative in all cars, given that they are similar cars (sedan .vs. Indy car, as an example). And, that has indeed been my experience.
If I drive 10 similar cars and get better than the suggested EPA FE in each one, I should have a reasonable explanation that the 11 th car will respond accordingly.
I know that's not a scientific analysis, but it is a logical conclusion.
PS
No gasser is even close.
Now Shiftright has stated a preference for "re inventing the wheel" so to speak or independent gathering of anecdotal data. My take is those oem are paid to do the research anyway.
Now since we are on the diesel thread how a diesel is driven has different dynamics than a like gasser.
Off topic but applicable is that a smaller engine gasser hybrid (Prius for example) has different dynamics than either a gasser only AND turbo diesel.
You are right, though, in that the TDI is horribly overpriced. And, without looking but knowing how the Germans and Japanese typically package their vehicles, I'd bet you get alot more standard on the MDX.
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S
Sure, if the economics made sense.
By that I mean if I'm shopping in, say, a $25k price class, and the diesel is $32k, then heck no, no matter how much extra equipment they add in.
If it's $1500 more and I make it up within 5 years, then sure.
If I wanted one of the Sportswagens or other diesels currently available, I would wait until the market is a bit better saturated. Right now you would be hard pressed to get much off of MSRP. Only two Sportswagen TDIs available in San Diego County. Selling for $27k-$29K. My wife's grand daughter just bought one and could not get them to throw in the Splash Guards at MSRP. She did get the 1.9% financing.
My local Shell has RUG at $3.89, Diesel at $3.99. I expect gas over $4 by March.
Run on the outside of two 200-ft diameter circles, the test essentially makes for a portable road course. It throws test subjects into handling extremes; in a given run, a car travels from full-throttle acceleration to full braking and then must transition into a constant-radius turn.
Out of the test come three scores: Time, average g-force, and lateral acceleration. The first is the fastest lap time from a given set of runs.
Read more: http://wot.motortrend.com/best-handling-cars-weve-tested-motor-trends-top-figure- 8-performers-3095.html#ixzz1mMv6M6wC
The way I read that, it's a running start (set of runs = lap 2 quicker than lap 1 standing start).
Also, with small diameter circles, I doubt speeds ever exceed the 1/4 mile trap speed, and the MDX is moving quicker the entire time. The TDI starts to close the gap, but it's merely losing by a little less.
The MDX is geared to be quick off the line, so F/E is a fair trade-off. It offers a 3rd row and 141.8 cubic feet of total volume vs. just 131 for the smaller Touareg. MDX also crushes on max cargo volume at 83.5 to just 58.
Touareg is too small for me, without a doubt. I think even the MDX is borderline.
To me, a Passat wagon makes *TOTAL* sense. Far more efficient than a Touareg, and a quick search says it has 61 cubic feet, so more space. All for less cost.
You give up AWD and clearance, of course.
The testing standards were significantly revamped in the latter half of the decade in order to provide much more real-world results.
http://www.epa.gov/fueleconomy/420f06069.htm
Good for you.
No one is getting $3000 more than they paid for any diesel car these days.
It's very likely Toyota knew how to exploit that to generate huge numbers (61/50 IIRC).
They had to revise them again for EVs, to create MPGe. Even now the cost estimates for energy are seriously optimistic.
So I have read in several places that the pace is 14M aka getting badk to a "good year". Prices now are higher percentage wise and discounts are fewer.
This subject was thoroughly hashed out on one of these forums a couple or three years ago.
These tests are thoroughly documented and certified. No carmaker has ever been accused of cheating, and they could NOT cheat. Everything is chronicled to the nth degree.
I have said this in other posts. However if it is tiresome I will stop. If I drove the 2004 Prius like I drove the 2003 Jetta TDI (50 mpg), the Prius would get far LESS mpg (SWAG only 38-42). If I drove the Jetta TDI like a Prius should be driven to get 50 + mpg, I would get more like 60 + on the Jetta TDI. (Keep in mind the 2004 Prius is rated FAR higher at 50 H and 60 city vs 2003 Jetta TDI @ 42 city and 49 highway.)
All things being relative, seems fair enough.
What is all this how the cars "should be driven"? 99% of the driving public mushes the gas pedal when they want to go and mush the brake pedal when they want to stop. If they want to increase their rate of acceleration or decceleration they mush harder. That is about the extent of the thought process.
So here are some of the postings on wwwfueleconomy.gov for
1. 2003 Prius 45.4 mpg,
2. 2004 Prius 47.5 mpg,
3. 2003 Jetta TDI 46.4 mpg
Cruze 26
Focus 28
Sentra 27
Mazda3 28
Only the Civic and Corolla did better.
So relative to its competitors it still did quite well.
The only way you would do that poorly is via sabotage.
Even CR, which gets relatively low MPG numbers, managed 44. The Jetta TDI got just 34mpg, way behind the Prius.
I read "set of runs" differently since, in autoX, we get a "set of runs," which, as you know, involves a standing start for each run.
I'm really curious about this now, though. Not so much for our discussion, since I still don't think it matters much for SUVs, but just in general.
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S