The Current State of the US Auto Market

andre1969

When I heard Buffet was starting to go in, I decided to pick up a few shares of GM, myself. Nothing too big though, just 50 shares. Call me cautiously optimistic, I guess!

fintail

Accounting tricks - many say Tesla isn't exactly using GAAP, either.

I think the "competitive market" in South Korea is more a function of rabidly nationalistic consumers (always taboo for westerners thanks to guilted greybeard dopes) and governmental policies.

Mr_Shiftright

I wouldn't predict GM to be some startling new "innovator" of things, but I think they'll chug along nicely, and who knows, maybe they'll luck out and actually appoint a CEO with some real vision instead of that Russian guy---Mr Goodanov.

fintail

Home ownership is very much an Anglo-American obsession. One has to wonder if it is all it is cracked up to be. Remove the subsidies...

Education costs 10x as much as 35 years ago, minumum wage is what, 3x as much? Kids today don't have it easy.

Cars are less fun than in the past, but they are easier to live with - 100K miles with little more than oil changes and consumables is possible with almost every car.

Mr_Shiftright

EVERYTHING is harder now than it used to be. If you wanted to give your child the life I had as a middle class boy in New York, you'd have to be making 500K easy. Living in Manhattan, free (and excellent) education, all summer at the beach and no helicopter parents to obsessively fill up my day.

andre1969

I think home ownership can be good in the long run, if you tend to stay in one place for awhile. But if you move around a lot, it will tie you down. Plus, there are the ups and downs of the real estate market to consider, so if you get in at the wrong time, and get out at the wrong time, you can get screwed.

Case in point, my old condo. Here's a rundown of its sales history:

1985: $78K (when the owner before me bought it)
1994: $84K (when I bought it)
2004: $185K (when I sold it)
2007: $245K (it sold again)
2013: $150-170K (according to comps in the area right now)

If I had stayed there, I'd have it almost paid off, as I had refinanced to a 15 year mortgage in 2002, so I'd have about 3 1/2 years left, and at this point the payment would be mostly principal. I might be moping over the fact that it ain't worth $245K anymore, but I'd also be within earshot of being mortgage-free. And I think the mortgage, principal+interest, was only about $600 per month.

In the meantime though, rents, around here at least, have gone nowhere but up. So if I was renting, I'd be facing higher costs, possibly every year, whereas if I stayed at the old condo, my monthly costs would've been pretty stagnant over the past 10 years (condo fees and taxes haven't gone up too much in that time).

uplanderguy

Yikes; I know realtors always say 'location, location, location', but our house was built in '92, is 2,000 sq. feet although is a box colonial, straight up, on a .62 acre wooded corner lot, in a small college city (although still too populous for me! LOL). We paid $173.6K in 1999 and I think it's probably worth about $200K now with the finished basement and new deck we added...hardly any increase but good value I'd say.

circlew

Years of superior reliability and performance have entitled Japanese brands to a quality price premium. Even if sticker prices on comparable vehicles from both groups were the same, American companies were forced on average to sell at $2000 -$3000 less than than their competitors, thus allowing Toyota and Honda to earn higher returns on capital.

In the month of June, if we take a look at the average transaction prices of GM and Ford Vehicles versus Toyota and Honda, we find that even though the average transaction price of American brands are slightly higher, the incentives (cash rebates, lease promotions, cheap loans, and dealer incentives) they offer are almost double that of their Japanese competitors.

Average Transaction Price-Incentives-Incentive/ATP %
GM $33,218 $ 3,513 10.8%
Ford $33,272 $ 2,964 8.9%
Toyota $29,177 $ 1,660 5.7%
Honda $27,165 $ 1,690 6.2%
Industry Average $31,125 $ 2,537 8.2%

berri

I'm thinking that data may be skewed a bit because trucks and crossovers are hot again, and that is prime D3 territory. What the data can't tell you is ownership costs including depreciation. I suspect some of these $45-50K buyers are going to experience a sharp depreciation hit in or 4 or 5 years that will preclude them from making the entire price hike they had to lay out on their new vehicle back in trade. It's the old econ 101 supply and demand thing and for those who buy high, equilibrium down the road usually costs them on the flip side. Throw in the fact that the automakers may put out big incentives on these high priced, high profit vehicles if demand slows down in a couple of years and it then only gets uglier for today's high demand side buyers at trade.

Mr_Shiftright

Porsche is now selling about the same number of 911s in 2013 as GM has sold Corvettes, even with a $30,000 price disadvantage. That's not good news for the Corvette, to say the least. The 'Vette sales numbers have been dropping and 2013 looks to be no better.

2006 36,518
2008 29,971
2010 12,624
2012 14,132

stever

FYI, passing through Alamogordo right now. Nice seeing mountains again.

Saw a whole bunch of train cars set up for moving new cars around over in the Texas panhandle. Literally a couple of miles worth between 3 or 4 trains. Not sure where they'd be delivering them - these were all empty heading east so maybe they originated in factories the South and went to distributors out West.

uplanderguy

I believe folks have known for awhile that an all-new Corvette has been on the horizon. I believe Porsche folks are a different breed than Corvette folks--for good or bad. I think some of it is a social-status thing in one brand over the other (I'll let the reader interpret which is which! LOL).

uplanderguy

I've heard there have been trans issues too. This is a population of one, but my diehard Ford coworker's daughter is having a rough idle/stumble/funky noise under the hood with her '12 Focus. Dealership says the dreaded "CND" (could not duplicate).

Mr_Shiftright

I'm not sure GM knows who the Corvette buyer IS anymore. I'm not sure I know either. If he's an aging guy crossing off his bucket list, that's not a good sign for Corvette.

In the recent past, Corvette's issues have been a cheesy interior and being a handful to drive at serious speeds. Apparently 2014 will address these issues but I don't know if that's too little too late or what. We'll see!

uplanderguy

I grew up on Chevys, but I didn't like the looks of the Corvette for a good twenty years...hated the fat rear end. The C6 was the first Corvette whose styling I liked in a long time. The interior was fine by me for that price. I hear a lot about quality of materials in some Porsches, etc., but that woven vinyl or leather look I've seen in some 'upper' cars like that remind me of the 1973 Chevelle Deluxe cheapo model.

crkyolfrt

I suspect that one reason a Corvette isn't considered by many of that demographic of shoppers, is that it doesn't have AWD. And it's not as affordable as it once was. People want to be able to do whatever they want without compromises, so when they anti up the larger bucks, sometimes that means beating even a humble A3 Quattro through the light in the rain. And with its RWD it can't do that. So it gets stomped on by just an A3...ouch..

uplanderguy

The C7 starts at just under $52K--seems like a wonderful value to me (although of course that's still a bunch of money to folks with house payments and college educations to pay).

andre1969

For the most part, I always looked at the Corvette as an exotic for the middle class. However, the middle class isn't doing nearly as well as it once was, so there's not that much discretionary income anymore for what amounts to many people as a toy/spare car. Sure, it's a very impressive car, and a downright bargain at its price.

But, those with money are probably going for Porsches and "true" exotics, and unfortunately, the time of the "working man's exotic" may be coming to an end.

jayrider

Young adults would rather focus on techno whiz bangs than saving for a Vette. I rarely see anyone other than aging boomers driving Corvettes. We lusted for them in our youth and once the inheritance money arrives when their folks pass, the dream comes true. My son's generation ( he's 40) , isn't dreaming about a Corvette . He is hoping for a modest retirement and senior golf green fees.

andre1969

My son's generation ( he's 40) , isn't dreaming about a Corvette . He is hoping for a modest retirement and senior golf green fees.

I'm 43, and the Corvette, or anything like it, is the furthest thing from my mind. I think if I was going to shoot for something midlife-crisis-ey, about the most impractical that I'd go would be a Camaro, Mustang, or Challenger.

But, I'm more concerned about things like saving for retirement, paying off the mortgage, not getting my butt fired, etc.

I wonder how badly the Camaro might be cutting into Corvette sales? Sure, the Corvette's still a faster, more exotic car, but the Camaro's so good these days, that it just doesn't seem like the Corvette is the big step up it used to be.

dieselone

A friend of mine recently bought an 04 C5 with 15k miles on it. I took it for a drive last week. No thanks. It does absolutely zero for me. Sure it's fast, but it's uncomfortable, has a Cavalier grade interior and smells like cheap plastic. Plus I wasn't particularly impressed with how it drove. The powertrain was impressive, but the rest of car just felt cheap to me.

I'm 42 and could easily go out and buy a Corvette. No thanks. Even if I did like Corvettes I don't have much use for one. Honestly I think priorities have changed for many men in my position. I'm simply not going to spend $60k plus on something only I'm going to enjoy (maybe after the kids are long gone). My wife could careless about a Corvette or any sports car.

OTOH, we still have expensive toys, but we choose to spend money on toys the whole family can enjoy. My wife couldn't get the checkbook out fast enough to spend more than a Corvette costs on a boat last year. Which is the 3rd boat we've bought since '01.

berri

My neighbor had a premature F-150 trans failure and said he knew of others. Personally, I think Ford buffaloed a lot of people with their old "Quality is Job 1" commercials . My experiences were that they were maybe a bit tighter built initially than my GM's back then, but after warranty expiration not so much. I really do expect GM down the road to start reversing the Ford market equation and perceptions out there.

andre1969

I wonder if another thing with me is that I went through"toy car" phase of my life at a fairly young age. I was only 20 when I bought my DeSoto, and 24 when I bought my '67 Catalina convertible. While a Corvette is a totally different experience than either of those big boats, they all still sort of fall into the same category of spare car/toy car/fun car or whatever.

At this point though, there's really nothing out there that I aspire to, automotive-wise. I remember a few years back, our neighbors bought a late 70's Corvette, because the wife had always wanted a Corvette but by that time it was about the only one they could afford. Even with them though, their priorities changed. A couple years ago, she told me that she would feel like she hit the "big time" when she had a red Cadillac in the garage, and a paved driveway. And when they had a house custom built and moved down to Southern Maryland, she got her wish. The driveway is paved (no more gravel like what they had up here) and the Caddy is a red 2000-05 Sedan DeVille. Not sure if she got it new or used.

dieselone

Same can be said of GM trucks too. A guy at the marina we slip our boat lost the transmission in his '12 Silverado with 11k miles on it Friday on his way to the lake (I personally know more people with trans failures in GM trucks at low mileage than I have fingers). Also I was talking to a friend of mine who has '11 or '12 Cruze Eco with a manual trans. Apparently the clutch is going out at 19k miles. It starts to re-engage as the clutch pedal travels the last inch to the floor.

Of course it doesn't do it all the time and the dealer can't duplicate the problem. He's not particularly happy.

My experience with Ford vehicles is they are either pretty good or horrible. So far I'm fairly happy with my 07 Expedition. Considering the abuse it endures, it's holding up well with 127k miles. It's probably the best domestic we've owned as I've never owned a domestic vehicle that didn't start falling apart by 100k. The Expe isn't perfect, I've had a few expensive repairs and the paint quality is horrible as the paint is bubbling and flaking off the tailgate.

I'd buy another Ford truck or Expedition. Don't know if I'd buy a Ford car though other than a Mustang.

fintail

I'm in my mid 30s, private sector, and the idea of retirement seems like a fairytale, something from another era or another dimension. Maybe if I live to be twice my age. I shovel money into my 401K and have a couple other things, but overall, not even the faintest thought of retirement. That being said, I'd rather enjoy some things now while cash flow permits, than wait until I might not be able to enjoy it as much, if I am around at all.

It's an interesting thought, where the Corvette will be once boomers age off.

berri

Heck, with the growing commonality of vendors I'm thinking over the decade brands will just get closer and closer to each other differing most maybe in software. I know GM and Ford are working on an upcoming 8 or 9 speed transmission. I may be wrong, but wasn't there some cooperation between them on some current transmissions as well? Is that 07 Expy based on the prior gen pickup? Seems to me that the older F-150 was less troublesome, maybe because it was less complicated?

berri

Fin, the way both political parties are going, and the partisan supreme court, I wouldn't be surprised if by the time you are retirement age Washington will have descended into the chaos occurring in Cairo these days. It really is pretty sad how big money and special interests are destroying your futures in America. Hopefully some day citizens will wake up and throw them all out and replace them all with non affiliated independents.

tlong

I see nothing to even begin to hint that the American workforce has gained more from NAFTA than it has lost. It's a race to the bottom masquerading as "free trade".

Well to really know, you'd have to run the experiment the opposite way and compare the results. You don't know that it would be better....or worse.

They'll end up well if employed in certain sectors (tenured managers, public sector types) or if they made theirs so people today can go pound sand. Some have to adapt more than others.

Of course some people will get lucky and stay 40 years in the same job with a fat pension. And most won't. Adaptability is a pretty important skill for most.

I got a technical STEM degree, worked 7 years in one field, migrated to another related field, got a Master's 10 years after my Bachelor's, and then have migrated to a third field. Keep your options open....it's the smart way to survive.

stever

Business as usual in other words. There's a lot more daylight in politics now than back when bribing senators so Seward could buy Alaska was the norm. That was in Honest Abe's time.

While we're heading off-topic, I enjoyed this yard ad down in TN last week. Can't wait for the INAL signs to pop up next to it.

More on topic, besides all the plants I've driven by in Michigan and elsewhere now (notably, the Jeep factory in Toledo looks huge), I've added Toyota Blue Springs to my southern roster. Have VW; need to add Spring Hill and Canton to my collection.

Just looking at car deliveries and the abundance of them on the road, the state of the car economy is booming.

tlong

How about Honda and it's acura lines? I keep seeing new posters complaining about the wonderful creative way Honda backs up their fault AC in the CRVs. GM would have changed the design after a significant failure pattern. Nope, Honda just keeps on selling $3000 replacements, same compressor, to the same Barnum and Baily buyers. Then there's the transmission problems at Honda. Not a lot of veracity there either.

Well my Acura TL just turned 135K and it hasn't blown an AC or tranny yet. In fact, I just had my largest repair bill at 133K - about $800 to replace an idler belt tensioner that was making noise, two front suspension bushings, and two control arms. The rattles up front are gone now and it drives pretty much like new. That's the only substantial repairs I've had to make on the car.

Our '04 Ody is just over 90K and it's AC and tranny are fine, too.

I'd gamble on that Accord if I were you. Take a try at the other side, and then you can really compare and go back the car after that, if necessary.

tlong

I think you've got to give GM a couple of more years before you lock in their future potential. Ford was in the midst of new model final development when the big recession hit and the GM BK happened. GM is just now starting to put out the new stuff over the next few years.

It would seem that any auto maker of size would be "in development" nearly all the time by staggering models. Had GM stopped doing new development to save cash? If so, I wonder how Wagoner got away with claiming GM was doing fine financially, AFAIK only about a year before BK.

tlong

Business as usual in other words. There's a lot more daylight in politics now than back when bribing senators so Seward could buy Alaska was the norm. That was in Honest Abe's time.


IMHO terrorism is today's communism. We've all heard about the horrible treatment of many people when McCarthy was on the prowl for "Communists". Well today, terrorism justifies just about anything the government wants to do.

fintail

Not necessarily. There simply isn't anything out there that
i have seen showing NAFTA is a net benefit to the average American. How could the experiment be run "the opposite way" anyway? It either exists or it doesn't.

I think I should seek employment in a faux private sector group that is buddy buddy with the growing Praetorian class, seems to be endless possibility there, at the expense of the nation. Or maybe get a time machine and start during a less expensive and competitive era. I'm thankful I have what I have and started when I did - the so-called capitalists have created a train wreck.

dieselone

It's certainly based of the previous f150 but Ford put the 6 speed trans in the Expedition in 07 two years before the f150 got it. But the trans was beefed up in 09 for the f150. Considering I have the first year of the 6 speed I'm happy it has been reliable so far.

fintail

I'm skeptical about any idea of revolt. Even during this con game era of race to the bottom globalization and unfair trade at the behest of media-controlling corporations and criminal executrash who should be locked up or worse, the masses are still convinced they are no more than a few steps from striking it rich. It all goes back to Steinbeck's line about why Americans didn't embrace socialism.

Not to mention, as long as it is a two party system, no chance.

Oh well. Retirement will be dull without a little money. Maybe I'll just work until I keel over, but keep driving a nice car

Mr_Shiftright

Are the Triton engines still spitting out spark plugs? That was a nasty thing.

dieselone

No, that was the pre '04 2 valve heads. Mine is the 3 valve heads with the opposite problem. The plugs tend to break when you try to get them out.

stever

That's a disputed quote (wiki). He did say Commies were no worry because "they were too busy fighting among themselves." That sounds pretty universal.

The trick to retirement is to take it young when you have the energy to enjoy it. Then settle down in a career in, say, your 60s. You have a new car - time to go walkabout. You can get more stuff down the road, but you can't bank experiences you didn't have.

imidazol97

>The plugs tend to break when you try to get them out.

Yours must be the one that sticks too far into the cylinder and the carbon hardens on the threads which keeps the plug from being turned back out. A mechanic on the radio talks about running a decarboning agent for a tank or so before attacking the plugs. He also may run something directly into the engine before starting the job attempting to wiggling the plugs out turning them some then back in, etc., trying to break the carbon off.

imidazol97

>Acura TL just turned 135K and it hasn't blown an AC or tranny yet. In fact, I just had my largest repair bill at 133K - about $800 to replace an idler belt tensioner that was making noise, two front suspension bushings, and two control arms. The rattles up front are gone

I appreciate your honesty. Far too many of the mass market foreign car owners have white washed the repairs their cars needed under warranty or after as nonexistent leading to my characterization as the "perfect" vehicle.

But I have 160K on my leSabre and don't have rattles. No suspension repairs (other than new struts I put in myself), no idle tensioners, etc.. Just normal maintenance.

dieselone

>Yours must be the one that sticks too far into the cylinder and the carbon hardens on the threads which keeps the plug from being turned back out.

Yes. From what I've heard the problem was from '04 to '08 or so. I had the original plugs changed at 60k and the dealer kept it overnight, soaking the plugs in penetrating oil and they still broke 3 off. Fortunately, they were able to use a special extractor tool to remove the part of the plugs stuck in the head and I was lucky to get away with an $800 tuneup;)

lemko

From what I've seen, the guys who sacrifice everything, save every penny, and deny themselves any niceties usually check out in their mid-late 50s and leave behind very happy financially well-off widows. "Oh, Murray was a very good man!" Retirement? It's probably something our grandchildren will only read about in history books.

Me? I look forward to another Cadillac or Buick in the future.

suydam

Between our own cars, my 3 children, and my father, I have ha many, many experiences with cars over 100k: Mazda, Honda, Toyota, Buick, Pontiac among others. Things like struts, control arms, bushings, commonly wear out in any car after 10 years or so of use, not to mention starters and alternators. To me, the killers are things like transmissions, engines, and the like, that usually spell car death (as in, not worth it to fix). With some research from Consumer Reports, not to mention these forums, I've had pretty good luck and avoided some of the disastrous vehicles of my early driving years.

I don't think anyone considers any car make "perfect". But some are better than others!

tlong

I'm thankful I have what I have and started when I did - the so-called capitalists have created a train wreck....

That have enabled people to get things like MB cars and flights to Europe and other exotic destinations. Even people of ordinary means, assuming they are well-educated.

tlong

But I have 160K on my leSabre and don't have rattles. No suspension repairs (other than new struts I put in myself), no idle tensioners, etc.. Just normal maintenance.

Congratuations on the LeSabre track record. I believe Buick has consistently been the most reliable of the GM brands, and your experiences bear that out.

andre1969

Congratuations on the LeSabre track record. I believe Buick has consistently been the most reliable of the GM brands, and your experiences bear that out.

Don't get me started on my 2000 Park Ave, though! ;-P Although, it's been pretty good since the brakes went out on it about two months ago. And then the tensioners back in April. And the MAF sensor and some other junk around January or February. And in October of last year, it needed more brake work and a front axle, and front sway bar links.

On the plus side though, the engine, transmission, and a/c are fine. It has about 93,000 miles on it now. And, I did buy it used back in December 2009, with 56,372 on it, so while it was low mileage, that was still enough time and mileage for the previous owner to do some damage, I'm guessing.

dieselone

>Things like struts, control arms, bushings, commonly wear out in any car after 10 years or so of use, not to mention starters and alternators. To me, the killers are things like transmissions, engines, and the like, that usually spell car death (as in, not worth it to fix).

I'd agree with that. My Expedition is the first vehicle I've owned to go over 100k miles w/o any of the above failing. The problem areas have been window regulators, auto climate control, coil packs, and poor paint and trim quality.

Once I start hearing to many squeaks, rattles, and feeling to much slop in the chassis I start looking for something else. That's why I got rid of the Suburban at 100k. I couldn't take the squeaks and rattles anymore.

dieselone

I don't think those era Park Ave's were all that great. My grandpa had a '97 and a '00 that were both troublesome well before 100k. Lots of electrical issues, and even some engine troubles too.

fintail

""I guess the trouble was that we didn't have any self-admitted proletarians. Everyone was a temporarily embarrassed capitalist"

Sums it up just as well. The masses think they are just a day a way from becoming a tycoon, even though economic mobility has decreased, now behind some "socialist" areas.

Too many 60 somethings sticking with careers as it is, youngins can't get started as poor planning boomers with barge loads of debt can't afford to hang em up. Not to mention, a 40-something retirement isn't really possible unless one is a public sector type with a ridiculous undeserved pension to tap. We all can't be cops who put in some short amount of time, retire, get the pension, then start working as a cop elsewhere.

And for some, a nice car is an experience. Better to enjoy it when you are physically able, and still alive. The same for travel - I'd rather take a big trip with miles spent on foot at 35-40 than 75.

Mr_Shiftright

I think somewhere around 100K is a great time to at least start *thinking* about a replacement, because that's just about when the pricier components start to wear out. No one, for instance, would call a bad alternator at 100K a "defect", or a corroded radiator, or torn CV boots, or rattling catalytic, or 4 tired struts.

At 200K, I start to worry about the integrity of the car itself, whether something critical is just going to break---200K is really pushing it.

I think Doc or other mechanics would testify as to the scary rat traps some people drive around, oblivious to their marginal safety.