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Is Tesla A Game Changer?

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  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Member Posts: 9,372
    A pretty pricey taxi, eh?
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    I saw numerous Prius taxis in Milan recently. Didn't expect it, with all the good European diesels.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    It's hard to beat Prius MPG in city traffic and if you're running a taxi company, those pennies add up. Diesel in Italy is only...what...maybe .50 cents a gallon cheaper, and for taxis you need fairly large cars.
  • texasestexases Member Posts: 11,107
    edited November 2014
    The big diesel price advantage in the EU is going away. They went from under taxing it to taxing it recognizing the CO2 production, I think. The diesel to gas ratio of car sales is going down as a result.

    Per WSJ: "The European Commission–which has executive powers in the European Union–will propose to levy a minimum EUR20 per metric ton of carbon dioxide emitted on products like gasoline, diesel, natural gas and coal starting in 2013. But it will also propose adjusting the existing legislation by gradually increasing a minimum levy on the energy content of diesel to bring it to the same level as that of gasoline starting in 2018."

    Per Ferdinand Dudenhöffer from the Center for Automotive Research at the University of Duisburg-Essen: "Because of generous diesel subsidies, nearly 48 percent of German cars and more than 60 percent of Austrian cars are powered by diesel. In Switzerland, where no such subsidy is in place, only about 20 percent of the cars run on diesel."
  • texasestexases Member Posts: 11,107
    Back to Tesla, looks like their "SUV" is delayed (again):
    http://jalopnik.com/tesla-model-x-delayed-again-until-the-third-quarter-1655175029
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    edited November 2014
    Tesla is such a volatile company, with a volatile stock. It's hard to predict what will happen. The SUV looks quite promising. Tesla needs to up their game ASAP.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    They really need to lose those falcon doors.
  • texasestexases Member Posts: 11,107
    edited November 2014
    stever said:

    They really need to lose those falcon doors.

    Agreed. I don't get them, I think they'll turn off more buyers than they attract. And they're just for the rear 2 doors, right? With regular doors up front? Hmmmm
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    I'm not so sure. You guys are forgetting that a Tesla is not for people who particularly like cars IMO. They are most gadgeteers, greenies, early adapters, etc than car enthusiasts.

    Think of the Tesla as a $100,000 Smart Watch.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 58,415
    edited November 2014
    That definitely holds true around here. I suspect many a Tesla shares a garage in my area with a beige barge and has an owner who likely would be befuddled by a manual transmission.
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Member Posts: 9,372
    Normally we have a number of "gotta have it" types around here and I get to see the "new and unique" on the road, but no Teslas as of yet.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    So no bikes or boats or rocket boxes on top.

    Next we'll learn that no towing hitches will fit because of the battery pack platform. So no trailer hitch bike racks on the back.

    Oh, it's got AWD. Let's take it to Whistler. Hm, guess we'll have to rent snowboards and skis when we get there since there's no place for a ski rack on top.

  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 58,415
    It's interesting seeing the evolution/devolution going on there. I wonder if it is legit environmental concerns, or just a thirst for more tax revenue. I suspect the latter - Europe has a ticking time bomb, not just due to slipshod immigration and demographic policies, but because of a huge amount of public sector and other retirees who are going to be around for a long time. Propagandize it by using ancient unmaintained French diesels polluting during a temperature inversion, and win the minds of the uninformed.

    Germany needs to bail out of that sovereignty stealing concoction. Funny how almost exactly 25 years ago, there was reunification and freedom, now a cabal of irresponsible untouchable bureaucrats are calling the shots again. I'd like to see a force from one of the non-bone-idle EU members (short list) invade Brussels and level the EU complex there. Unsustainable mess.
    texases said:

    The big diesel price advantage in the EU is going away. They went from under taxing it to taxing it recognizing the CO2 production, I think. The diesel to gas ratio of car sales is going down as a result.
    In Switzerland, where no such subsidy is in place, only about 20 percent of the cars run on diesel."

  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    One less Roadster around. Will that bump up the collectible value?

    Hm, no idea about the driver but plenty of people do fine in Alaska with RWD in the winter. Next up for this guy will have to be a Model X though.

    Talkeetna man hurt, Tesla Roadster totaled in Parks Highway crash (KTUU)
  • texasestexases Member Posts: 11,107
    Mid-engine (motor?) cars + ice = tricky...wonder if he had studs?
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Talkeetna? What a place to keep a Tesla!
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited November 2014
    A couple of people we know retired up there and it's starting to sound a bit trendy, believe it or not. (I know, I don't believe it either - must be the bars). One guy we know drives a Prius in their beautiful downtown.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    I worked for a whole year up there. Yeah, it IS hard to believe---maybe it gets a summer tourist crowd and of course we got lots of climbers going up to Denali. But a Tesla in that climate? Geesh.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Tesla has finished upgrades to its Fremont California factory and is ready to gear up for the Model X:

    http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/factory-upgrade

  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    Just in time for competition.

    Audi Developing Long-Range Electric Car to Challenge Tesla (hollywoodreporter.com)

    And for the record, a friend sent me that story - I usually don't read the Hollywood Reporter (maybe I should add it to my favorites though. :D )
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    edited November 2014
    fintail said:

    It's interesting seeing the evolution/devolution going on there. I wonder if it is legit environmental concerns, or just a thirst for more tax revenue. I suspect the latter - Europe has a ticking time bomb, not just due to slipshod immigration and demographic policies, but because of a huge amount of public sector and other retirees who are going to be around for a long time. Propagandize it by using ancient unmaintained French diesels polluting during a temperature inversion, and win the minds of the uninformed.

    Germany needs to bail out of that sovereignty stealing concoction. Funny how almost exactly 25 years ago, there was reunification and freedom, now a cabal of irresponsible untouchable bureaucrats are calling the shots again. I'd like to see a force from one of the non-bone-idle EU members (short list) invade Brussels and level the EU complex there. Unsustainable mess.


    texases said:

    The big diesel price advantage in the EU is going away. They went from under taxing it to taxing it recognizing the CO2 production, I think. The diesel to gas ratio of car sales is going down as a result.
    In Switzerland, where no such subsidy is in place, only about 20 percent of the cars run on diesel."

    Sorry to digress form cars, but as long as we're proposing changes, I don't think that Turkey's agenda, with its current administration, is consistent with NATO's. Turkey poses a risk to NATO members, because of its geographical location (which is not its fault, so that can't be criticized), but mainly because it's pursuing a foreign policy that's dangerous for other NATO members. If Turkey persists, it should be removed from NATO, since if it's attacked NATO, NATO would be obligated to defend it.

  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 58,415
    Maybe NATO itself should be cast aside as it is mostly a paper tiger, and Europe can fund its own defense - it's probably time to end the 70 year old occupation, even if it is a make-work project for our Praetorian sector. Turkey probably shouldn't be in the EU either, but there's something about guilted old Eurocrats and non-assimilating demographics that makes them feel better. Maybe not much different from similar types here.

    All this is OT, but there's not much going on in Teslaland aside from continued sketchy accounting, tax breaks given to those who need it least, and chatter about that oddly proportioned gullwing CUV thing that is supposedly out soon :)



    Sorry to digress form cars, but as long as we're proposing changes, I don't think that Turkey's agenda, with its current administration, is consistent with NATO's. Turkey poses a risk to NATO members, because of its geographical location (which is not its fault, so that can't be criticized), but mainly because it's pursuing a foreign policy that's dangerous for other NATO members. If Turkey persists, it should be removed from NATO, since if it's attacked NATO, NATO would be obligated to defend it.

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    fintail said:

    Maybe NATO itself should be cast aside as it is mostly a paper tiger, and Europe can fund its own defense - it's probably time to end the 70 year old occupation, even if it is a make-work project for our Praetorian sector. Turkey probably shouldn't be in the EU either, but there's something about guilted old Eurocrats and non-assimilating demographics that makes them feel better. Maybe not much different from similar types here.

    All this is OT, but there's not much going on in Teslaland aside from continued sketchy accounting, tax breaks given to those who need it least, and chatter about that oddly proportioned gullwing CUV thing that is supposedly out soon :)




    Sorry to digress form cars, but as long as we're proposing changes, I don't think that Turkey's agenda, with its current administration, is consistent with NATO's. Turkey poses a risk to NATO members, because of its geographical location (which is not its fault, so that can't be criticized), but mainly because it's pursuing a foreign policy that's dangerous for other NATO members. If Turkey persists, it should be removed from NATO, since if it's attacked NATO, NATO would be obligated to defend it.

    Low oil prices is probably a headwind for Tesla market penetration, but more so for lower priced electric and hybrid cars such as the Leaf, Volt, Prius and others. While prestige and early adopter bragging rights are probably important priorities for those who can afford a Tesla, I imagine that cost of ownership is an important consideration for most green car buyers. Inventories of unsold Priuses are way up. I'm waiting to see whether Tesla sales hold up.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 58,415
    I don't think gas/oil prices will impact Tesla. They are like the Apple of cars, people want them just for them, not for practical reasons. A car for techies more than for people who are into cars, it seems. Fuel prices will definitely impact the lower priced electrics - I've seen used Leafs for like 12-13K.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    I agree with that. A Tesla purchase is something you simply cannot justify publicly by "saving gas" without the room bursting out laughing. Of course, after 130 years you would in fact break even. Now there's long-term thinking for you!

    Speaking of longterm thinking------As for cheap gas prices, I think they will boost sales of bigger SUVs and cars, and dent the normal EV, hybrid and diesel market but not to a significant degree.

    I think (hope) that at least some Americans are aware that the reason for cheap gas has a lot to do with the new technology that was developed to find new, and more destructive, ways of acquiring oil. So I think it's an end game that will have repercussions that even short-term-memory America will be able to see for themselves.

    Short-term, though, just about every "pseudo-green" politician at the higher levels is going to cave in on lessening environmental regulations, to our present good but longterm detriment.

    I don't really care about the politics of oil, but it does concern me that all the great new engine designs (and cars) we've seen in the last few years will become inert in their development without the spur of expensive fuel costs. In other parts of the world, however, where fuel prices remain high, they may develop technology that will literally clean America's clocks in 10-20 years.

    We'll see won't we? We've already seen this in Europe's most recent space exploration achievement. And China wants to go to the moon. I sure hope we don't go back to building 1976 Eldorados.
  • texasestexases Member Posts: 11,107
    There's still the spur of increasing CAFE requirements that will trump low fuel prices, I think. However, those low prices will make it doubly hard for manufacturers to meet the CAFE #s. Expect big rebates on the high-mpg vehicles...
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    I was noticing something interesting today while I was driving in the San Francisco Bay area---the more run-down the neighborhood, the higher the gas prices. I guess this is true for food stores, too. A whoppin' .70 cents per gallon difference between Oakland and Sonoma. Of course I only have a database of maybe 10. It would be interesting to do a zipcode analysis through GasBuddy.
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Member Posts: 9,372
    FRANKFURT -- Audi AG plans to roll out an electric-powered crossover in 2017 to challenge Tesla Motors Inc. for wealthy, environmentally conscious consumers
    So this is all about getting the money of those who think they're making a difference ;)
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Well if there is indeed a market in selling to big buck gadget-loving pseudo-greenies, why not jump in? It hasn't hurt Apple to sell pretty expensive things.
  • texasestexases Member Posts: 11,107
    I have no problem, if that's all they did. But much, if not all, of Tesla's 'profit' is driven by government mandated credits trading, including lots of credits that Tesla earns for the fictitious 'battery swapping' feature of the S. So yes, there's harm...to everybody else's wallets.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 58,415
    I wonder if sales would be impacted should the tax incentive be reduced.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited December 2014
    Those who can't afford a Tesla have made the Leaf profitable.

    Meanwhile, filed under Uber, airBnB and other disruptive technology:

    “The mortal threat that ever cheaper on-site renewables pose” comes from systems that include storage, said Amory Lovins, co-founder of the Rocky Mountain Institute, a Snowmass, Colorado-based energy consultant. “That is an unregulated product you can buy at Home Depot that leaves the old business model with no place to hide.”

    Why Elon Musk's Batteries Scare the Hell Out of the Electric Company (bloomberg.com)

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    It's a dubious process all the way 'round. While Nevada could argue that the 1.3 BIL in incentives it gives away are good for Nevada in the long run, (that may be) there's no reason to suggest that this is good for the USA as a whole. It's not "job creation", it's job relocation.

    And another thing----I wish people would stop calling Tesla "cutting edge". It's not. It's building cars just the way everyone else does, using a technology that is basically nothing new--just improved, and using the same supply chain as GM or Toyota.

    I'd really like to see business separated from the idea of it being some kind of religious quest. It's business, and Musk is very good at playing the game---and really, the game favors the big players.

    So IMO it's a game changer but only in the change in which type of poker you're playing.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I have always liked the idea of being off the electric/water grid. Not the Internet grid. So if Tesla can offer a practical short term payback, I am 71 years old, it may be worthwhile. So far only a few solar programs offer REAL savings.

    And then there’s the home front. In a July report, Morgan Stanley said Tesla’s home and business energy-storage product could be “disruptive” in the U.S. and in Europe as customers seek to avoid utility fees by going “off-grid.”
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    edited December 2014

    VW is known for making big profits. They are also outspending all other automakers combined on R&D. Tesla would not exist except for tax payer dollars and consumer dollars being given to them. Tesla total profit in 2013 was due to Carbon Credits from the other automakers.

    “So if a manufacturer has sales in California of, let’s say, 100,000 vehicles, and the obligation is credits equal to one percent of their sales, they have to come up with 1,000 credits,” Bevan said.

    If a company comes up short, it has to pay a penalty of up to $5,000 per credit. Or it can buy credits from a company like Tesla, which happens to earn a lot of credits on every car it makes.Tesla has sold enough credits to post its first profit.


    Cheap gas sells more gas guzzlers, pays more credits to Tesla. When will Tesla run out of millionaires to buy their cars.


  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Member Posts: 9,372
    edited December 2014

    Cheap gas sells more gas guzzlers, pays more credits to Tesla. When will Tesla run out of millionaires to buy their cars.
    I think The Eagles have the answer...

    They will never forget you 'til somebody new comes along B)

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Tesla has been sitting at idle too long. In the 21st century, product development in the car business works at a ferocious pace. If you snooze, you really do lose.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    Crossposted....

    "If you are a serious automaker, you have to be in the SUV market," said Renee Stephens, vice president of automotive research at JD Power and Associates. "In the past three years the compact SUV segment has really grown and Tesla is saying, 'Hey, this is a market for us. We need to get in there.'"

    Women waiting in the wings for Tesla's Model X (montereyherald.com)
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    stever said:

    Crossposted....

    "If you are a serious automaker, you have to be in the SUV market," said Renee Stephens, vice president of automotive research at JD Power and Associates. "In the past three years the compact SUV segment has really grown and Tesla is saying, 'Hey, this is a market for us. We need to get in there.'"

    Women waiting in the wings for Tesla's Model X (montereyherald.com)


    I wonder if the SUV is another big Fib like the $50k family model? My question, do Wise Men really buy over priced EVs?


  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Member Posts: 9,372
    You are on fire @gagrice
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Hmm? Women with kids + range anxiety? I wonder........................
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    Will the Toyota Mirai, not Tesla, Leaf or Volt be the ultimate game changer? Or, will the Mirai be just another failed attempt to replace the internal combustion engine?

    Should the oil industry and oil producing countries be worried?

    Will oil top $100 per barrel within the next three years, and will it ever exceed it's 2008 all-time high price of $145?

    The answers to these questions are just guesses at this point, but what do you think after reading the following article...

    http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-12-17/toyota-embraces-fuel-cell-cars-for-post-gasoline-future



  • texasestexases Member Posts: 11,107
    As an engineer, I see nothing that addresses the biggest issue: where will the hydrogen come from? The article says as much:

    "The environmental benefit of fuel-cell cars won’t be fully realized if hydrogen isn’t eventually produced from renewable sources. Splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen using electricity, a process called electrolysis, from a renewable source such as solar is one option. Another is biomass conversion, the biochemical conversion of methane gas, say, from landfills into hydrogen. “There’s a high possibility that there will be many sources of hydrogen in the future, such as solar energy and even waste,” says Toyoda. Yet whether these methods will ever be cost-competitive with gasoline and diesel is unclear."

    Even if they work, I think it'd be a waste to use them. Why take solar electricity and split hydrogen, when we could use the electricity directly and reduce coal use? Why do thee same with methane from landfills, when a CNG vehicle could use it directly?
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    Coming to a Toyota/Prius dealer near you?

    Musk: Tesla May Eventually Use Car Dealers But Not Ones Who Have Been “Jerks” (consumerist.com)
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Company stores are an expensive proposition and usually are not run to make a profit (or much of one) so I'm still waiting for Tesla to present a sane business model here.
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Member Posts: 9,372
    edited January 2015
    Do EV wars "heat up"? B)

    GM Could Put Tesla Out Of Business Tomorrow If It Wanted

    The Bolt? Yea, rhymes with Volt, but...
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