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Is Tesla A Game Changer?

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  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    And even if it fails utterly, it will still have built the Supercharger network, an important addition to US transportation infrastructure that wouldn't exist without Tesla.


    My understanding is the charger network is subsidized by the tax payers. GM and the other automakers have kept Tesla from going broke with carbon credit cash. And about the time Tesla comes out with a car for the masses the 200k tax credits will be gone.
  • texasestexases Member Posts: 11,107
    I could almost look the other way on the 'Supercharger network', except it can be used ONLY by Teslas. Nobody else. Any tax $ that went into it is a ripoff, IMO.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    texases said:

    I could almost look the other way on the 'Supercharger network', except it can be used ONLY by Teslas. Nobody else. Any tax $ that went into it is a ripoff, IMO.

    That is the way I see it. And it is NOT the first EV charging network. We had several of the Special charging stations in San Diego for the EV-1. Now they are all gone and our tax dollars with them.

    The green subsidy program's most successful investment to date is an electric car manufacturer that has yet to profit solely from the sales of its product. Instead, it is a company built on loan guarantees, sustained on subsidies and profitable only through a system of credits designed to benefit electric car manufacturers at the expense of their competitors. Take away all of the recent hype surrounding Tesla's recent loan repayment, and you are left with a company built to cash in on the privilege and favors from politicians.

    http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/economic-intelligence/2013/06/03/teslas-success-is-the-result-of-political-favoritism
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Kind of how the NFL operates. Only the NFL one-upped Tesla by having politicians declare it a non-profit organization (yes, you can look that up).
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Member Posts: 9,372
    Those dealers may not like the Tesla sales approach, but do they have anything legal to stand on?
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    I think they do. Remember what a certain 60s activist said: "If 100 guys in suits say its legal, then it's legal".
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Member Posts: 9,372
    As a consumer, then. I can buy a "widget" that someone is selling on the internet. If a competitor's "widget" is sold from a brick and mortar location, can the brick and mortar purveyor stop the other sales approach? I'm thinking not, but that's just a gut opinion.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    It's like major league baseball - those guys made up their own rules.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Exactly---they can make whatever state laws they want. I don't think Tesla has any constitutional appeals.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Having a dealer network is also protection for the consumer. I am sure they have to be bonded. Are you going to mail your Tesla to the closest shop that is authorized to do warranty work on them?
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    Funny when your car falls off the lift at the garage, the first thing they want you to do is to file a claim against your own insurance company.
  • gandroidgandroid Member Posts: 11
    There is an "app for that" to get all the support the Tesla owner needs. Just like how we cant pull into a gas station to fill up, we have to think differently about the Tesla support model.

    http://my.teslamotors.com/service#/tesla-service
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    gandroid said:

    There is an "app for that" to get all the support the Tesla owner needs. Just like how we cant pull into a gas station to fill up, we have to think differently about the Tesla support model.

    http://my.teslamotors.com/service#/tesla-service


    In San Diego there is a Tesla service center. No sales or charging stations. I doubt they will put in a free charging station with our 37 cents per KWH electricity. If you have the 85 KWH battery that will cost about $31.45 to charge in San Diego. If you get the maximum miles of 265 the cost is 12 cents per mile. My current cost for diesel in my Touareg TDI is 9 cents per mile.

    This Tesla owner is right on the money. I assume he lives in a state that does not rip him on electricity.

    To cover 15,243 miles, I used 5,074 kWh of electricity, for an average of 333 watt-hours per mile. That's a bit better than the car's EPA-rated efficiency of 350 Wh/mi, and converts to precisely 3 miles per kWh.

    I used about 1,275 kWh of free Supercharger power on three long road trips totaling about 4,000 miles. So about 3,800 kWh of the 5,074-kWh total came through my electric meter.


  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    It's kind of funny to think about someone paying $130,000 so he can save money on a cost per mile basis. This seems, to me, a disingenuous way to market the car. Not to say it isn't a clever way to market the car!
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 58,415
    Remember, you save money by not spending time at a gas station, for a "15 minute" fill up, billed at $100/hr.

    Just forget about the time spent at a supercharger on that 400 mile trip, doesn't count.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Got a call from Tesla about following up on my test ride--they apparently want to show off some of their new features on the S---they've had to play catch up on AWD and driver-assist packages. I may take another spin!
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    For those that have not seen this video of the Tesla Factory. Pretty impressive.

    https://www.youtube.com/embed/8_lfxPI5ObM?rel=0
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    Now we're talking, the heck with the car, give me some panels and a big honking battery. Bye Bye El Paso Electric (and most of my propane use).

    “There may be a 'tipping point' that causes customers to seek an off-grid approach,” Morgan Stanley wrote last March. “The more customers move to solar, the remaining utility customer bill will rise, creating even further “headroom” for Tesla’s off-grid approach.”

    This new Tesla battery will power your home, and maybe the electric grid too (Washington Post)

  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    No off grid living allowed comrade. How will they control your usage of the sunshine? No free lunch in a collective society. I know Musk being a good Libertarian would like to see his dream a reality. I don't think it will be tolerated for more than a few that slip through the cracks. They want to know how many KWHs you load into your Tesla. So they can get their road tax. So far it is a novelty for the Feds and states.

    Florida Makes Off-Grid Living Illegal – Mandates All Homes Must Be Connected To Electricity & Water Grid

    http://www.collective-evolution.com/2014/03/09/florida-makes-off-grid-living-illegal-mandates-all-homes-must-be-connected-to-an-electricity-grid/
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Member Posts: 9,372
    I'm looking at the thermometer and where it's heading this weekend, and I can't imagine considering an EV as a practical alternative. If I'd hit the lottery and had one as an around town deal, maybe.

    My grid is frozen at the moment ;)
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Sounds like Blue Sky to me. But we'll see...

    I see GM is now fully in electric car market: 200 mile range, $30K price range. Tesla, look out.

    http://insideevs.com/200-mile-30000-electric-chevrolet-bolt-expected-to-debut-at-2015-naias/



  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Can Tesla compete with the likes of Apple. Looks like Apple is serious about building an EV for the masses.

    Apple has 'several hundred' workers designing new electric car, codenamed 'Titan' - report

    The Journal's report follows hours after a similar missive from the Financial Times, which revealed a "top-secret research lab" staffed with automotive executives. Among those who have made the move is former Mercedes-Benz R&D head Johann Jungwirth, who joined Apple as a Mac systems engineering leader last fall.

    Apple design chief Jony Ive is believed to have been personally recruiting automotive executives. Tesla CEO Elon Musk revealed earlier that Apple has tried "very hard" to poach engineers from the electric carmaker, offering $250,000 bonuses and 60 percent pay raises.

    http://appleinsider.com/articles/15/02/13/apple-has-several-hundred-workers-designing-new-electric-car-codenamed-titan---report
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Since when has Apple ever made anything affordable? We already have $120,000 electric cars.
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Member Posts: 9,372

    Since when has Apple ever made anything affordable? We already have $120,000 electric cars.

    Never underestimate the fanaticism of the Macolytes ;)
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Oh, I understand it I think---Apple products are generally beautiful and most of the time work pretty darn well--I just don't understand paying for them. :)
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    edited February 2015

    Oh, I understand it I think---Apple products are generally beautiful and most of the time work pretty darn well--I just don't understand paying for them. :)


    I have to agree with you there. I have watched Apple since the beginning. I opted for Atari as a better product for less money. However, it will be interesting to see just what they come up with in an EV. For Mac Nuts an iCar may be worth sitting out in the cold for hours to buy the first one. With GM entering the fray with their EV Orion. I have to wonder if the market is even close to there. Nissan Leaf the most practical affordable EV has saturated the market. Sales are way off for them. An EV van may have appeal in the right price range.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Fact is, Americans have demonstrated no great interest in electric cars. I remember posting years ago that I thought the "sell point" for any serious market share for EVs was "30-300". $30,000 bucks and 300 mile range.

    I still think that's the bottom line for an EV renaissance. Or even a naissance. :)



  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    Looks like the Bolt is 30k and 200 mile range.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    Regarding Tesla, here's what I think may happen. Although Tesla's valuation has come down significantly from its 12 month high it's still extremely rich compared with other auto makers. Even if Tesla's business model and products are promising, no company can justify buying it at these valuations if the company continues to lose money. Without a partner with deep pockets Tesla may not be able to finance its ambitious plans. Unless Tesla begins to turn a profit on a fully costed basis investors will assign a much lower multiple to its shares. At much lower valuation levels the company could become a take over target for another auto maker or tech giant. Alternately, another firm could buy part of Tesla, such as a major interest in the gigafactory, if that ever goes forward.

    I'm not predicting this will happen, but I see it as a logical scenario, particularly if oil prices remain low for a long time. That's because financing could become Tesla's scarce resource, its point of weakness. It seems to me that Tesla is boxed in by expenses that are growing faster than sales, low oil prices, and much larger, more diversified competitors with deep pockets.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    stever said:

    Looks like the Bolt is 30k and 200 mile range.

    I will believe that when I see it. Physics still rule and I have not heard of any big battery breakthroughs. If it can go two and a half times as far as the Leaf, it will need a much bigger battery.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 58,415
    I suspect over-monied middle aged Apple cultists are a big part of the Tesla demographic as it is. It already seems like an Apple car to me. They might be on to something.

    Regarding financing, maybe Musk can con something from the gubbamint - having no MSRP cap on the tax break is definitely fishy IMO.
    PF_Flyer said:

    Since when has Apple ever made anything affordable? We already have $120,000 electric cars.

    Never underestimate the fanaticism of the Macolytes ;)
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Regarding financing, maybe Musk can con something from the gubbamint - having no MSRP cap on the tax break is definitely fishy IMO.

    EV tax break is pretty much limited to above median wage earners. A family making under the $52k median income are not going to pay $7500 in Federal Income tax. EV tax incentive is only for upper middle class and wealthy people.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Right now Tesla has about a $455 million dollar negative c ash flow. Musk blames the last bad quarter sales on "due to a combination of customers being on vacation, severe winter weather and shipping problems."
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Tesla Loses $50 Mil, Gets $250 Mil in Environmental Wealth Redistribution

    Tesla, the crony capitalist car company that couldn’t… without government intervention, is still performing spectacularly. And by performing spectacularly, I mean it’s losing enough money every year to build a car company that makes flying cars.

    Tesla doesn’t actually make money, it resells California’s mandated energy credits. So if you’re buying a regular car, you’re basically paying rich people to drive a Tesla.

    That’s how environmentalism works and Big Green is slaving over the thought of doing this on a national level with Carbon Credits.


    http://www.frontpagemag.com/2014/dgreenfield/tesla-loses-50-mil-gets-250-mil-in-environmental-wealth-redistribution/

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/tesla-motors-ends-2014-with-a-loss-after-building-35-000-electric-cars-1.2954866
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 58,415
    It's from the people who figure the cost of refueling at 15 minutes per fill up billed at $100/hr into their ownership cost spiel - what should we expect?
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    "customers on vacation?" Well I hope it's Florida and not Manchuria.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I love the last statement:

    Musk has another thought that could explain Apple’s car project. On Tesla’s earnings call, before news of Project Titan became public, he said Apple is “just running out of ways to spend money. They spend money like it’s water over there and they still can’t spend enough of it.”
  • texasestexases Member Posts: 11,107
    Here's Jalopnik's take on what they consider the wild speculation about an "Apple car":

    "These reports have raised more questions than answers. Who would they partner with to build it? Cars are harder to build than phones. Has Apple registered any autonomous vehicles? They'd have to if they're testing an autonomous car on the streets. Hiring an engineer from Ford (who worked on the iPhone), one from Mercedes, and some from Tesla doesn't mean a car is coming. Maybe they went to Apple because they got tired of cars. Who knows for sure. Apple might be working on a car, but they might also be working on connected car technology to sell to existing OEMs or mapping software or autonomous car retrofits. It could be literally anything. But to say Apple is definitely building a car is a lot premature.'
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    To quote Wired, "automakers are becoming tech companies."

    Another tidbit:

    "Marc Newson, the famous designer who once drew up a sweet concept car for Ford, now works at Apple. Newson’s gone on the record saying Jonny Ive hates the design of American cars."

    So, awash in money, a secret lab with "100s of employees" code-named Titan, and they already are well along with CarPlay.

    Wanna be an auto mechanic? Start coding.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Wanna be an auto mechanic? Start coding.

    There is still a requirement for Grease Monkeys. And they will stay in the lower pay schedules. As far back as 2005 while talking to the service manager at the Buick/VW dealership in Portland Oregon, he was lamenting the loss of their top technician. Seems the Cadillac dealer offered him $150k per year to come run their shop. I guess he was a whiz with a laptop in analyzing computer problems in GM cars.

    As for Apple in a car. I have not heard all good about their mapping. Didn't they go back to Google maps?

    Wired also made the statement that Tesla was the first profitable automaker since Chrysler. Seems Tesla will have to overcome $1.3 billion in losses before they are profitable.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    I wonder if that "profit" includes the $200 million ++ Tesla got in taxpayer money? Nonetheless, Tesla's expansion plans and production goals are eye-popping statements bordering on the incredulous. One wonders if investors will believe them and stay the course.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450

    I wonder if that "profit" includes the $200 million ++ Tesla got in taxpayer money? Nonetheless, Tesla's expansion plans and production goals are eye-popping statements bordering on the incredulous. One wonders if investors will believe them and stay the course.


    The investors may be tired of hearing all the hype. I see TSLA has lost about $84 from the peak of $286. Which I thought was about $200 more than it was worth. Who knows I am wrong about stocks at least half the time. The one time the media was bragging about a profitable quarter for Tesla they had gotten over $80 million in credit cash mostly from the other auto makers. The old Robbing Peter and Paul and give it to Elon.
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Member Posts: 9,372
    Lines in the sand from the Pittsburgh Business Times

    Four states win Luddite Award for blocking Tesla from opening stores
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited February 2015
    Stop Tesla, but Click-Drive GM.

    "Alvin Kowalik has purchased many General Motors Co. pickup trucks over the years. But last year, the cattle rancher in Selma, Texas, tried something new, and purchased a pickup through GM’s Shop-Click-Drive website.

    “I found the truck, listed my trade-in and was given the sales price. A nice lady from the dealership calls me, we made a deal, they drove it out and I signed the papers,” Mr. Kowalik said."

    Why GM Hired 8,000 Programmers (WSJ - may be a registration link)

    Sounds a whole lot like how Tesla does business.
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Member Posts: 9,372
    Yep, I'm not sure you can stop people from buying things the way they want to buy them. If I'm in a Best Buy and looking around, I might see something I'm interested in buying, but I will go home and check online for deals and take into account whether I want it NOW or can wait (assuming S&H doesn't spoil the "deal")

  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited February 2015
    I was tire-kicking a couple of cars yesterday. Emailed after I got home for some numbers. The response?

    "We can give you the out the door price but we would need you here..."

    At least they emailed me instead of calling.

  • MichaellMichaell Moderator Posts: 262,197
    PF_Flyer said:

    Yep, I'm not sure you can stop people from buying things the way they want to buy them. If I'm in a Best Buy and looking around, I might see something I'm interested in buying, but I will go home and check online for deals and take into account whether I want it NOW or can wait (assuming S&H doesn't spoil the "deal")

    Best Buy will price match if you show them a price on-line (from your phone, for example). They've gotten much better with their customer service.

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  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    PF_Flyer said:

    Yep, I'm not sure you can stop people from buying things the way they want to buy them. If I'm in a Best Buy and looking around, I might see something I'm interested in buying, but I will go home and check online for deals and take into account whether I want it NOW or can wait (assuming S&H doesn't spoil the "deal")

    BB rarely has what I want in stock. If I can't get what I want at Costco, I buy from Amazon. I was given a $1000 gift certificate for Best Buy when I retired. It took me two years to spend it all. Mostly junk I did not really want. I did get a Yamaha Amp/Preamp from them that has been good. I bought what they claimed were high end speakers that were not as clean as my 30 year old B&W studio monitors. Took them back. I hate using gift certificates. Just give me cash.

    I am surprised you cannot get a Tesla through Amazon.
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