The Future of Hybrid Technology

oldboy

See Hybrid vs. Diesel thread for the Moparbad links I just referred to.

xcel

Hi Midnight Cowboy:

___I really do like my 5-speed Insight for the highway mileage I have received over the last 6 months or so but watching your posts over the same period makes me believe the Insight might not be the car for you? It isn’t as fast or luxurious as your tastes require more them likely. I don’t really know your tastes directly of course but I have a feeling that your performance and accommodation needs are a bit higher then what the Insight has to offer is all …

___Good Luck

___Wayne R. Gerdes

Sylvia

If you want to talk about the TDI, please post in the TDI discussions or TDI comparison discussions.

thanks!

rfruth

Never thought I'd say or type this but gagrice & I pretty much agree, give me a clean quiet high MPG vehicle (be it a gas hybrid, diesel hybrid, plain ole ULSD, CNG, whatever) & I'm happy, a small P/U that meets those requirements & I'd almost wet myself but a hatchback (Toyota calls um a liftback) does fine (thus my attraction to the Prius) why doesn't the big 2.5 offer this ? Can U imagine a clean 50 MPG El Camino ?

mirth

...the Big 3 have been burned on hatchbacks many times, so they're reluctant to put out yet another. Toyota curbed the hatchback look on the Prius to make it more sedan-like, while offering stand-out-in-a-crowd styling.

The new Prius is scoring a home-run now with the greenies, technophiles, and first-on-the-blockers because of the styling, technology, and better utility/performance (than the old Prius, anyway). It's a neat little car. But I think until the price premium on hybrids goes down from several thousand to several hundred or so, hybrid adoption is going to be slow. Most people don't want to pay more for fuel economy, period. And unless gas gets up to $3 or more per gallon, I think that will remain true.

I expect we'll slowly see more and more hybrids over the next decade or so, as the manufacturers wrestle with the technology and find ways to make the cars profitably. Once the economies of scale kick in, hybrids will become common but that's going to take a while. Figure hybrids will be a significant portion of vehicles by 2015 or so. I'm not even going to make a prediction about hydrogen because I'm not sure they're going to be able to get it to work efficiently, like the EV debacle.

john1701a

> But I think until the price premium on hybrids goes down from several thousand to several hundred or so, hybrid adoption is going to be slow.

Why would a clearly benefit improvement not carry a price of more than just several hundred?

Still to this day, automatic transmissions cost around $1,000 more than a manual. And they reduce MPG, so there's an obvious penalty. Yet people pay that difference anyway.

JOHN

john1701a

> Most people don't want to pay more for fuel economy, period.

I don't believe that for a second, since there is absolutely no way to prove that they wouldn't actually do it.

Lots of people don't "want" to pay $2 per gallon, but millions do daily anyway.

*NEVER* have people had the option between choosing tradition & hybrid for the very *SAME* vehicle.

It was always a compromise in the past. In order to gain MPG, you were almost always forced to choose an entirely different vehicle. (In some rare cases, a manual was actually available. But that clearly required a sacrifice of having to do all the shifting yourself.)

Finally getting the choice changes the purchase decision process entirely. Will I buy a Ford Escape with a traditional or a hybrid system?

JOHN

mirth

...we'll see how it goes, but I stand by my comments. IHMO, of course.

As far as the benefit of the lowered fuel economy and reduced emissions, not everyone is as worried about emissions as you. Certainly not when it means a hit to the old pocketbook. ;-)

xcel

Hi Mirth:

___I too believe in much what you have posted …

___When Hybrid tech comes in at ~ a $2,000 premium or less instead of a $4,000 - $7,000 premium as it appears today, then it will make much more sense. Even today, PZEV rated emissions can be achieved with most any 4 and it appears to be slowly making its way toward std. 6’s if the automaker(s) decide to offer this level of emission control HW in the automobiles we desire. If the automakers go with similar ICE’s (1.8 L Corolla, 2.4/3.0/3.3 L Camry, 2.4/3.0 L Accord), then you will receive a small increase in fuel economy and even better performance then what is offered today. If they go with the undersized and under performing ICE’s (Insight, Civic, Prius I and II), then you can choose for mileage vs. performance but with just a $2,000 premium, the Hybrid will pay itself off for those that choose the latter.

___Good Luck

___Wayne R. Gerdes

falconone

I suppose value is up to the individual. There are always a few people who are quite frugal and think the Prius is a bit expensive. Having test driven one and definitely considering one, I find it is priced right. A great many others feel the same way too since they are having NO trouble selling them. Would I consider and alternative low emissions vehicle? I would but the current vehicles available don't interest me. Forget the Focus because they have WAY too many problems and the seats are extremely uncomfortable. I do however LOVE the Mazda 3 but it does seem to have some teething problems.

ticoar

A good reason to pay a little more for the improved MPG....National Security. I am surprised that I only see this reason come up occasionally on these boards. My major reason I would buy a hybrid is not for the low emmisions, the design or "future" features it has, it is because we need to cut our dependence drastically on oil from the middle east. When we can free ourselves from the neverending thirst for foreign oil we can get our nose out of that part of the world an stay out of some of the messes we find ourselves in. If we all across the country increased our mileage even 10% - 15% the amount of oil that saves is enormous which in turn cuts down the demand which in turn cuts down the price.

turboshadow

I don't think the supply/demand model they teach in economics applies to oil. OPEC sets their prices based on their agenda.

And the good ole USA has plenty of oil; its just not profitable to extract it until gas goes over three bucks per gallon, or so.

Turboshadow

gagrice

As long as it is cheaper to buy OPEC oil we will do it. If someone is truly interested in by-passing OPEC they need to go 100% Biodiesel. That and LNG/CNG are the only alternatives to foreign oil consumption currently available.

solar_dad

"A good reason to pay a little more for the improved MPG....National Security..."

Amen. My reasons exactly. It's hard for a single person to affect foreign policy, but we can individually drive a hybrid and demonstrate to our friends and neighbors that they work and they can be a completely mainstream form of transportation.

Mike

rfruth

There are ways to bypass OPEC other than bio-diesel or CNG, reduce/combine trips drive a hybrid only when necessary etc - I look at a hybrid as my way to pitch in.

gagrice

I look at a hybrid as my way to pitch in

It most certainly is helpful. And I am aware of the downsides to alternate fuels such a bio-diesel and CNG. I wish that a larger percentage of the American population were as informed as those that read the Forum. It gets back to my frustration with the automakers. I wish I believed they were truly interested in saving fuel. I believed in Honda in the 1980s when the CRX and HF Civic got great mileage. They went down hill from there. The 1986-87 Civic HF had highway mileage higher than the Prius and better than anyone is reporting for the Prius on this forum of combined 54MPG. Plus they were very simple for me to work on.

xcel

Hi All:

___If most would give a damn about national security; they wouldn’t drive 75 + out on the highways receiving just 75% or so of EPA estimates rather then 50% above driving much more sensibly. Fat chance of that unfortunately.

___Good Luck

___Wayne R. Gerdes

falconone

Too bad they weren't as safe.

falconone

.... or drive 65 in a Hummer! Same thing.

gagrice

Crumple zones and air bags are not the most important aspect of auto safety. Handling and braking are more important. The Prius comes up short on all handling tests. I doubt that the Prius handles as well as an 18 year Civic CRX. My point is they made high mileage cars 20 years ago. Then the auto companies dropped the ball.

hotshot24

What hybrids will we see in 06MY?

falconone

It think it handles better than your Suburban. Haven't read too many complaints about people losing control! Haven't seen the lists get any shorter since all the rags have made their comments. Care to add any more commentary?

daysailer

handle better than a Suburban!

gagrice

I would not consider the Suburban or Prius competitive in the handling arena. I do know I have been in some serious cross winds and was not "blown all over the road". I think you are comparing Apples to Oranges. I can take all the people & luggage you can carry in the Prius and have room for a family of four. And you don't even want to compare it in deep snow or on ice, because there is NO comparison. You would not make it the first 1/4 mile where I would lead you. Keep your Prius in the city I'll keep my Suburban in the suburbs.

falconone

Gagrice you probably have never driven a Suburban on a windy open intersate. Talk about monsterous handling. BUT.. the point of the discussion is the Prius handling. I don't own one but I did rent one with aftermarket tires (don't know why the OEMs were not on). I made sure the pressures were good (42 front and 40 rear) and the handling at 75 in windy conditions was very good. Only time it felt to be effected was by truck wakes. Would take a Prius over the Suburban any day of the week. I HATE big behemoths like that. They oughta be outlawed but that's another thread.

gagrice

Actually I avoid the Interstates as much as feasible. I like the winding back roads of America. The Suburban is very nice on long drives and I have never felt blown around on the highway. I like to see where I am going in the sea of SUVs and crew cab Pickups that are so popular in So. California. If I was a commuter I would buy a smaller car, and the Prius would be on the list. I would still rather have a small diesel vehicle preferably a Ranger size PU. That not being possible I'll just be happy with the Suburban.

Kirstie_H

We seem to focus a lot on the Prius, but would any of you consider buying a full-size, hybrid SUV? Will they make it in the market?

kirstie_h
Roving Host & Future Vehicles Host

gagrice

Maybe a full size Expedition, Tahoe or Suburban. I would not buy any of small SUVs that are currently projected. I have driven the Escape and ridden in the RX330, I don't see why anyone would buy those over a 4 door car of equal capacity. They get poor mileage compared to many fullsize cars. My wife's 1990 LS400 gets better mileage than my friend's RX330. It is more cramped than the LS400. My friend bought his to have a place for his dog in back. He liked his 1997 ES300 better for comfort and driving.

The projected increase in mileage is not enough to pay the premium & take the risk on the technology. We do not know what will happen when the mandatory battery warranty expires.

xcel

Hi Gagrice:

___Driving an SUV across the country vs. any sedan no matter how appointed is something you need to experience for yourself. The overall comfort of all passengers is far greater in an SUV when properly equipped. A minivan is even better!

___As for the fuel economy and such, the last time I drove the MDX for any lengthy distance, this is what I received:



___Good Luck

___Wayne R. Gerdes

gagrice

Wayne,
I agree, I would rather drive my Suburban on long trips than anything else I have driven. Although the wife's LS400 is pretty nice on trips to Vegas and Palm Springs.

Which year MDX and engine did you get the 33mpg with? I past them by as the EPA listed them at 17/23mpg, which was not enough to sell my Suburban and buy new.

Mini-vans are still kind of scary to me, sitting right over the front wheels..

xcel

Hi Gagrice:

___Our X is an 03 Touring w/ RES. It only comes with a 3.5 in 4WD trim which is mighty powerful in its own right (sub 8 seconds to 60 in some reviews). The fuel economy capabilities of the beast are what surprised me as I can routinely achieve > 30 mpg out on the highway. As for RES, there is nothing better then on a long trip to take a break and watch a movie, sitcom, or just plain listen in for a change. I highly recommend this option in all future vehicles with the Minivans being top of the list for size, utility, and even higher fuel economy … That is if you can stand the look of the things ;-)

___And back to the topic … I am sure I could achieve even higher fuel economy w/ a Hybrid MDX/Ody or Accord but the base non-Hybrid power trains can do some serious damage to the EPA’s underrated estimates if you drive them for what they’re worth. Not many know this yet but someday, all will … Wait until VCM hits the entire Honda lineup w/ the iCDTi’s following! Hybrid’s will more then likely fade away when and if that happens. Unless the Ni-MH, Li-Ion, Li-Sulfur, Zinc-Air, straight AGM’s, whatever … pack prices come down significantly to be added to an iCDTi anyway ;-)

___Good Luck

___Wayne R. Gerdes

rfruth

Wayne your right on in the driver controls the machine dept (if ya want MPG it can be done) but your hybrids will more than likely fade away statement doesn't hold water cause hybrids will continue to advance along with everything else.

xcel

Hi Rfruth:

___As mentioned above, unless the pack prices come down a tremendous amount they will.

___Good Luck

___Wayne R. Gerdes

rfruth

So you are better at predicting the future than Toyota Honda Ford GM Nissan etc ?

xcel

Hi Rfruth:

your hybrids will more than likely fade away statement doesn't hold water

___Are you not predicting the future?

___For a heads up, why not consider Europe’s total sales of HCH's, Insight's, Prius I’s and II’s vs. everything else given they already have great overall fleet fuel economy without hybrids. They are voting with their pocket books and do have to pay $5.00 to $6.00 for a gallon of petrol.

___Good Luck

___Wayne R. Gerdes

gagrice

I don't think any but Toyota have jumped in that deep that they cannot back out. Battery production given the shortage of precious metals needed for production is a limiting factor. I agree that we have been cut a raw deal, not having access to existing high mpg & high performance vehicles. Nothing that has been demonstrated in the hybrid vehicles can be considered high performance. In a league with the Honda Accord Diesel, several BMW diesels, VW/Audi & DCC diesels. So far the only thing going is a few smaller cars that get reasonably good mileage with marginal performance. Very finicky I might add from the troubles reported (such as stopping on the freeway for no apparent reason) poor mileage for unknown reasons. I have never owned a car I had to make sure the front tires were 2 lbs more pressure than the rear. That is pretty bad in my estimation. Who checks the tire pressure even once a month? Not many I would say...

rfruth

Europe is a different animal, they have a lot of diesel options and actually use mass transit, it is more usable thanks in part to fuel tax they pay so sales of hybrids in Europe don't mean much - I not too good at predicting the future (a quick check of my stock portfolio would verify that) but I have a feeling Toyota Honda & Mercedes know what their doing.

rfruth

Thats why I said better MPG is achievable in most anything if the driver pays attention to things like the tire pressure once a month

gagrice

That tire pressure business is a two edge sword. If I put enough pressure in my tires to get the maximum mileage The center of the tires wear prematurely. That gives less than desirable handling also. If a set of tires only lasts 15,000 miles how much gas can be bought with that money. I just changed my original Firestones on my Suburban with over 45k miles on them. They still had good tread just weather checked real bad from sitting in the sun all the time. I talked to one person at the Firestone place with a Prius. His tires only lasted 12k miles. That means he is buying 4 sets of tires to my one set. Where is the economy there?

falconone

An SUV is nice if the highway is flat. Give me a nice well handling German sedan anyday over an SUV. Heck... I'd even rather drive a cheapo American mid size (Impala). Nothing like gunning 300 horses on a nice curvy intersate.

xcel

Hi Rfruth:

___I am not so hot at predicting the future either ;-)

___Remember that Toyota, Ford, Mercedes, and Honda all have a huge and profitable investments in diesel technology as well. A look at the manufacturer’s euro based web sites will show you all you need to know in this regard. We just haven’t seen it here yet.

___The reason I mentioned Europe is they do have a ton of high mileage diesel options and with that; Hybrid’s aren’t selling worth a damn over there. We will soon have the same or at least similar diesel options here in the states and once we do, the $3,000 - $7,000 premium for a hybrid makes them (hybrid’s) as good as dead. That is where the lower priced pack statement comes about. If that hybrid premium isn’t reduced significantly, the diesels will arrive and they will destroy the Hybrid market imho. Europeans appear to be a bit more practical then us American’s and I do not see how an American could pass up the opportunity to purchase an Accord EX-L iCDTi for maybe $22,000 (30/45) vs. an Accord EX-L I4 (24/34) for $21,000 vs. an Accord Hybrid (30/38) for $25,000 +. The 255 HP Accord Hybrid w/ no sunroof will be much faster then either the iCDTi or I4 by a good deal (7 seconds vs. 9 seconds to 60 mph) but neither the I4 or the Hybrid will receive anywhere near the highway fuel economy of the iCDTi if 34/38 is all the I4 and HAH are good for in the EPA highway cycle … In regards to the city estimate, the iCDTi vs. HAH (30 vs. 30 possibly?) might be about equal.

___With the above, if the pack prices do come down significantly so a Hybrid premium is only let’s say $1,500 in total, then an even smaller 1.5 to 2.0 L iCDTi w/ a 25 - 30 HP IMA addition might make sense for 50 - 60 + out on the highway and 0 - 60 in 9 + seconds or thereabouts Diesel Hybrid. Then you are speaking of a VCM’ed iCDTi EX-L w/ IMA for ~ $23,500. Just as fast as today’s I4, equal or higher highway rated fuel economy then the HCH, and city fuel economy that should easily be in the mid 30’s for a 3,300 # semi-Lux automobile. It is the pack and total hybridization price that will make or break this scenario imho.

___The prices I used above are both estimates in terms of what a HAH and iCDTi might go for here in the states and some of the best pricing received on a PZEV based EX-L w/ Auto in the last few days per Edmunds own Honda Accord - Prices Paid and Buying Experience forum.

___Good Luck

___Wayne R. Gerdes

rfruth

So what is the ideal PSI to get the max mileage in your 'burb ? Honda calls for 32 PSI in my Civic, 37/35 seems to be the magic number for me, the tires wear evenly at that pressure and I get better handling & MPG - 12 K miles out of a set of tires & I would switch brands not buy another set, too bad hybrids don't come with smarts but they don't.

xcel

Hi Falconone:

___I don’t know why you need a 300 HP sedan to cruise the Interstates nor do I see why anyone needs this for back and forth to work either. This is America thank goodness so we have a nice choice if speed and handling are your forte’. With that, an SUV or Minivan are much more comfortable for everyone overall. There is simply too much room sacrificed in a sedan/hatch vs. a larger SUV/Minivan. I remember our 5 person trip to Florida in the 87 Mercury Sable LS. It wasn’t nearly as fun or comfortable as the trip to South Dakota, Utah, Arizona, California, and back in the MDX w/ its RES.

___Good Luck

___Wayne R. Gerdes

rfruth

          Bring on diesel iCDTi's and ULSD here in the USA !

xcel

Hi Rfruth:

___And how!!!

___Good Luck

___Wayne R. Gerdes

falconone

If given the choice, I'd prefer say a BMW 540 over an SUV driving xcountry because of the level of comfort and handling. Having driven the rockies in a Navigator (rental) I was longing for a better more powerful sedan. SUVs get lousy mileage, really don't handle too well and are not fun to drive. Just my $0.03.

xcel

Hi Falconone:

___I prefer the comfort for 5 or more including myself, a wonderful ride of a semi-lux Acura SUV (a Beemer’s ride isn’t what I would call soft by any means), and receive great fuel economy as posted previously. Given your driving style, I highly doubt you will achieve even the 545i’s EPA highway estimates :-( Can you even purchase a $55,000 545i with a RES?

___Good Luck

___Wayne R. Gerdes

rfruth

A 5 series would work for me, until someone mentioned it was over 50 grand and got terrible mileage, not sure what RES is (looked at acura.com) but would venture to say I could live without

gagrice

So what is the ideal PSI to get the max mileage in your 'burb ?

That is a good question. I just take the Suburban into Firestone every 5k miles and they rotate and check the pressure for free, part of the OEM agreement. The pressures must be good they lasted 6 years & 45k miles, with tread to spare. I hope the Michelins I bought at Costco are as good as that set of Firestones. So far the mileage is about 1/2mpg less, so I should add a bit of pressure.

gagrice

"Honda’s new Accord 2.2 i-CTDi Sport has this week set no fewer than 19 world speed records and achieved 3.07 litres / 100 km (92 imperial mpg, ~76.6 US mpg) fuel economy to boot. British racing driver Robin Liddell and freelance journalist Iain Robertson were part of the European record-setting team. Amongst the speed records set, which were all achieved in Production Car Class B (2000 – 2500 cc), were 133.04 mph (1 mile flying start), 84.25 mph (1 mile standing start) and an average speed of 130.38 mph over a 24-hour endurance period. These records were all set at Papenburg high-speed oval test track in north-west Germany on 1 and 2 May, and are all subject to FIA ratification."

If allowed to be sold in all 50 states, diesel cars would wipe out the market for hybrids. They are not in the same league as dozens of current diesel offerings in the rest of the world. We tout the Europeans on the environment most of the time why do we resist them on this issue? I believe the US environmental organizations are in the oil companies pocket. I know for a fact that the bulk of the environmental studies in the Arctic are financed by BP. From the grass, bird & whale watchers to fish squeezers, they are financed by the oil companies.