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The Future of Hybrid Technology

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  • zodiac2004zodiac2004 Member Posts: 458
    If allowed to be sold in all 50 states, diesel cars would wipe out the market for hybrids

    I'll go so far as to say that if the Accord 2.2 i-CTDi alone makes it to the 50 states, available in manual and auto trannies, along with ULSD, the only 2 people in the country who would be pro-hybrid at that point would be john1701a and usbseawolf2000.

    I can't wait for the day when decent diesels make it to NA and the bottom falls out of the used hybrids market.
  • rfruthrfruth Member Posts: 630
    Even if diesel's were allowed to be sold in all the states and ULSD was readily available I doubt that it would wipe out the hybrid market, it would put a dent in it for sure - I totally agree that the big oil & gas companies, lobbyist, government & manufactures are in it for the money and the more the merrier, heck if they (and we the people) wanted to use less energy we could and some of the diesels Europe has is living proof it can be done.
  • bighybridluvrbighybridluvr Member Posts: 2
    "I can't wait for the day when decent diesels make it to NA and the bottom falls out of the used hybrids market."

    Better(read "cleaner and more efficient") diesels are on the horizon due to advances in diesel engine design and diesel injection systems(High Pressure Common Rail) and ULSD(EPA requirement) coming to the U.S. in 2007.

     But I don't get your hope that "the bottom falls out of the used hybrids market" comment.

    Hybrids are here to stay and are most definitely compatible with hybrid technology, as seen with the Diesel-Electric Hybrid buses that have been making their way into many municipal transit systems across the U.S and the world. Santiago, Chile is getting 3,000 D/E buses http://tinyurl.com/46o5t,
    which makes Seattle's 235 D/E buses seem pitifully small in comparison.

    Maybe it's the "Prius Preachers" that have have you annoyed with hybrids. They are biased but so what, let them be. It shouldn't take away from the fact that hybrid technology is an advancement in transportation technology that benefits us all.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    That is good and interesting news. What is known about the hybrid technology used in these different buses. Are they just using the diesel to generate the electricity for the motors? I cannot imagine they would use batteries to run the motors alone like in the small hybrid cars.
  • stevedebistevedebi Member Posts: 4,098
    "I cannot imagine they would use batteries to run the motors alone like in the small hybrid cars."

    This statement is not quite correct. The batteries do not run the motors alone (even in the Prius, though it runs for a limited time on electric only). All hybrids use a combination of ICE and electric motors.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I was wondering if they have a large enough battery to move the bus at all? Or do they have to have the diesel running at all times? All the hybrid cars can be driven a short distance on batteries only, with the ICE not running.
  • rfruthrfruth Member Posts: 630
    Honda doesn't know their IMA hybrids can be driven a short distance on batteries only, in fact they don't recommend it
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    So the Prius is the only one that takes off without startig the engine?
  • rfruthrfruth Member Posts: 630
    Yep the Honda hybrids aren't designed to go an inch without the ICE - full hybrids (like the Prius and Escape) can use battery power alone in fact I would like a EV switch in the Prius (like the Japaneese version has) if I'm only backing out of the garage why bother to start the ICE ? Plus I would like a plug (so I could plug the car in when I wanted to) ((if the traction battery is low yea start the ICE to charge it)))
  • SylviaSylvia Member Posts: 1,636
    Hybrid v. Diesel posts belong in the Hybrid v. Diesel discussion. Post them there or they will get deleted here.

    Thanks for helping keep things organized.
  • falcononefalconone Member Posts: 1,726
    Don't really care about mileage too much. My company gives me a generous monthly car allowance. If I had to choose an SUV it would either be the Porche Cayenne or even the ugly Infiniti FX. At least they handle decent. Wouldn't get an MDX 'cause it looks too much like a minivan. I'd sooner get the Pilot (ala fridge on wheels).
  • rfruthrfruth Member Posts: 630
    Thats the spirit use it up OPEC needs the money (not) - most all the smog machines (mini van, SUV crossover or whatever is a box on wheels (fridge on wheels, good term gotta write that 1 down)
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    You forget the hybrid is built so that companies like Toyota can keep building the big profit gas guzzlers without penalty.
    I looked at the MDX for the first time, I thought it more attractive than most of the wannabe SUVs.
  • rfruthrfruth Member Posts: 630
     Toyota motor is no angel thats for sure but at least their in the hybrid business.
  • falcononefalconone Member Posts: 1,726
    At least Toyota has the cajones to build it! Honda too! Have you been to their board room meetings? What proof do you have that their goal was to build a hybrid to enable them to produce gas guzzlers without penalty? Many of Toyota's cars have decent gas mileage.
  • john1701ajohn1701a Member Posts: 1,897
    There's no need for board room meeting info.

    The guy in charge of it all has spoken with owners at the big auto shows. He has even attended a few owner gatherings. And if you look back to the initial rollout, you'll find messages from him and another in management answering our questions.

    The long-term goal of reducing emissions & consumption is blatant.

    The intent to crush the competion using that advanced technology and the reputation it provides is becoming rather obvious too. Both traditional & hybrid sales are very strong.

    And if you don't believe that, just read the countless press releases that clearly state their goal is provide a hybrid option for every passenger vehicle they offer by 2010. In fact, if you dig deep enough, you'll find the date was originally 2012. But things have went so well with HSD, they accelerated their plans.

    No matter where you look, the proof is there.

    JOHN
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    If anyone thinks Toyota's motivation is anything but Profit & greed I have a beautiful piece of swampland to sell you in Florida. Hybrid is NOT the talk of the automotive industry or even the Edmund's Forum. It is rare that any hybrid topic is in "Today's Top Discussions". We are a very insignificant group that are interested in new automotive technology. Since test driving the first of the Prius cars in San Diego 4 years ago. I have not seen 6 of them on the road. I started out liking the idea. Given the "Unexplained problems" I'm not so sure now.
  • john1701ajohn1701a Member Posts: 1,897
    > Since test driving the first of the Prius cars in San Diego 4 years ago. I have not seen 6 of them on the road.

    Not mentioning that you live in ALASKA is a rather huge omission.

    I see 4 to 6 daily here in Minnesota.

     
    > If anyone thinks Toyota's motivation is anything but Profit & greed

    Not all executives are evil. Some do rank the reduction of emissions & consumption among their priorities too.

    JOHN
  • rfruthrfruth Member Posts: 630
    What are the problems and would you say before hybrids problems could be explained ?
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Correction I work in Alaska 3 weeks and play in San Diego for 3 weeks. So I get a fair share of the time on the roads in San Diego. Needless to say I have not seen any Prius in Alaska. That is why I questioned the cold weather aspects of the hybrid. Not sure if Toyota even shipped any up there. They are ideally suited for Los Angeles commuting. I am sure if I commuted daily I would see more here in San Diego. I try to stay off the freeways until 10 AM and get home by 2 PM so I am not adding to the commuter problem.
    Toyota executives are like BP, Exxon, Ford & GM. They are great salesmen and they got you believing that they care about the environment.
  • xcelxcel Member Posts: 1,025
    Hi John:

    Not all executives are evil. Some do rank the reduction of emissions & consumption among their priorities too.

    ___We are speaking of Toyota here, right? You remember those guys and their huge concern for reducing Emissions & Consumption. Maker of the Land Cruiser and Sequoia with an EPA emissions score of 0 out of a possible 10! Even if you wanted to harm the environment, you couldn’t do it nearly as bad by purchasing any Ford, GM, Daimler-Chrysler, Honda, Acura, Nissan, or Infiniti, and even a Hummer H2 with this low a score! Well at least the GX-470 received a 1 out of 10 which is still much worse then the Hummer H2, Ford Excursion, Chevrolet Suburban, Dodge Durango, etc … Get the point? Toyota doesn’t give damn about the environment or they wouldn’t be selling these 3 filthy puking P’s O S. It is a profit play and a profit play alone. When Toyota’s D-CAT tech hits the states in 2006/2007, hopefully they can improve some of these abysmally low scores w/ cleaner diesels but at this point in time, there isn’t any point in saying Toyota is doing anything other then lining there pockets at your expense with all the green rhetoric.

    ___Wayne R. Gerdes
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Several people have said the car would stop while accelerating onto the freeway with no explanation. You shut it off and it runs when you restart it. The dealer all told them it was unheard of. Big & unexplained problem messages 2, 4, 5, 12, 32 & 51 in the Prius Problem thread. A car dying when accelerating onto the freeway is very dangerous and the Prius has a history of doing just that....
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    The guy in charge of it all has spoken with owners at the big auto shows. He has even attended a few owner gatherings

    When the executives of a company like Toyota are forced by their PR people to stoop to talk with the dregs of society, it is for the express purpose of pulling the wool over the eyes of the masses. When they retreat to the executive suite they sip their $1200 a bottle brandy and laugh about the schmucks that ate up their lies like candy.

    Wayne,
    I tried to be more diplomatic about the low life executives that run most of the major corporations in the world. I agree with you 100% though.
    Gary
  • rfruthrfruth Member Posts: 630
    As i've said before action speaks louder than words and the Prius has been out there for years now with more hybrids on the way, seems to be a lot of 4x4 Toyota Sequoia'a on the roads around here and it makes me want to ask the owners what was going through their minds when they picked it out cause I know what Toyota saw in it (a big profit) ya can't blame them for wanting to make money now and later.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Don't get me wrong, I like capitalism. I think Toyota is playing the game as well if not better than the others. But to say they do anything for the good of our environment is laughable. I don't think the Prius is a big profit car now or ever. I think it is a big PR car. When Toyota moved into second place in 2003 with 6.78 million cars sold. How many were hybrid? They will build as many clean cars as they have to sell the dirty ones they are still building. All the other majors manufacturers have cleaned up their big gas guzzlers better than Toyota. So Toyota needs the hybrid to keep the overall sales at that level. They already are making excuses why they have to bump the date for release of the other hybrid cars. And a few gullible people believe them.
  • falcononefalconone Member Posts: 1,726
    Maybe you're not driving in the right neighborhood.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    seems to be a lot of 4x4 Toyota Sequoia'a on the roads around here

    That happens to be one of the vehicles that give all SUVs a bad name. It is a horrible polluter. And Toyota thinks they can come up with this hybrid and all their sins are forgiven. It does not work that way.
  • john1701ajohn1701a Member Posts: 1,897
    > Not sure if Toyota even shipped any up there.

    I am. A couple of owners there have contacted me about my experiences... since at times Minnesota is actually colder!

    JOHN
  • john1701ajohn1701a Member Posts: 1,897
    > It does not work that way.

    Fortunately, what you describe is not true.

    Toyota is not seeking forgiveness, they are seeking acceptance (and patience). They want to sell hybrid versions of those vehicles.

    JOHN
  • ivan_99ivan_99 Member Posts: 1,681
    What's Toyota doing?

    Making a profit?

    Selling something to the public that they desire...unheard of; to Marxists.

    Toyota could sell a 100 or even a million times more of their SUVs and not have any impact on the environment. It's so inconsequential it's laughable.

    Now if you tell me by reducing consumption we could give OPEC (particularly middle eastern producers) the big middle finger; then I'm all for a hybrid.
  • falcononefalconone Member Posts: 1,726
    I think GM is more culpable than Toyota when it comes to producing fuel inefficient cars/trucks. Look at all the trucks they produce! Much more so than Toyota does. I guess they don't deserve your angst since they produce the gas hog suburban.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I'm not saying the Suburban is much better than the Landcruiser as far as the environment or gas guzzling. I'm sure the major players in the auto industry and oil business are friendly to each other. Probably many sharing duties on the other's Board. They only do what they are mandated by the government to do. If for example the state of Minnesota were to make regulations as CARB has in CA, do you think the automakers would follow those regulations? Not only no, but Hell No. The only reason they live within the constraints of CARB is because it is a huge market. I'll give you another example of how the automakers get around regulations. When I hit a deer in Idaho and traded my pickup in on the 1999 Suburban. I asked the dealer why they were building 1999 model Suburbans in May of 1998. He told me they had reached their government quota on 1998 model Suburbans. Ford, DCC and GMC all take advantage of the lax regulations on big pickups and SUVs especially in CA. Do you think if Toyota thought they could compete in those markets they wouldn't be doing it. Of course they would. Their best selling truck is a distant 5th place in sales. And there are 9 SUVs including Honda that outsell the best Toyota has to offer. They do a good job with small cars and are smart not trying to compete where they will get trounced.

    For me, I would down size if anything offered in the US would fill my needs and get appreciably better mileage than the Suburban. Say a Midsize truck. The only one that comes close to decent mileage is the new GM Colorado/Canyon with a 4 cylinder it gets 21/27 mpg. The rest of the world get Ranger diesel crew cabs that get an honest 45 mpg. The GM hybrid truck is not of any value to me. Give me a vehicle I can haul a bunch of stuff in that gets 35-40 mpg and I'll give up my gas guzzling Suburban.
  • nkeennkeen Member Posts: 313
    Toyota sells Hybrids because they are Hollywood-hip for now, appeal to a certain segment and project the right socially aware image. They are not much car for a lot of money. Never mind that you can buy monster-torque diesels in Europe that get 30-40 mpg, and propel cars to 60 in 6.5 seconds and on to a top end around 150 mph (BMW 530D, etc.) Toyota builds fat SUVs because they sell well to Middle America. They sell, not surprisingly, what is profitable.
  • falcononefalconone Member Posts: 1,726
    Oh yes.. I remember reading that. They spent billions of dollars to sell a few cars to the Hollywood elite. How foolish do you think we are to believe such a ridiculous statement?
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I agree that a few in Hollywood helped to boost lagging sales of the Prius. CNN seems to think that Toyota is still subsidizing the Prius as of Today. Autosite does not show anywhere close to the projected 47,000 units Toyota claims they are selling in the states for MY 2004. Is Toyota contributing to the Hype? I believe so.

    Hossack also said Toyota is subsidizing the Prius as a public-relations exercise to create goodwill for the brand from consumers, businesses and governments.

    http://money.cnn.com/2004/09/06/pf/autos/bc.bizfeature.autos.hybr- - id.reut/
  • rfruthrfruth Member Posts: 630
     gagrice you have outdone yourself when you say to boost lagging sales of the Prius
  • john1701ajohn1701a Member Posts: 1,897
    At what point were they *EVER* lagging?

    The 2004 Prius was 17,000 backorders deep before delivery of the first here even began!!!

    And look at Ford. Not a single person in Hollywood owns one, yet the entire allotment of 2005 are already ordered.

    JOHN
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    When I test drove the 2001 Prius, the salesman called me at least 3 times over the following month, trying to sell me one of the two they had sitting on the lot. They were very slow movers until a few Hollywood types bought them and conspicuously drove them to Hollywood events. I am not saying the 2004 has not been successful, it seems to be selling OK. I am saying that unless they sold 27,000 cars from Oct. of 2003 to Dec 2003, they have not sold as many here as some people on this forum claim. According to AutoSite only about 21k were sold the first six months of this year. As far as the Escape is concerned there are going to be a lot of ticked off people. And this I can speak with knowledge about. My good friend the manager of the largest Ford agency in San Diego has told me that she was only going to get 1 hybrid Escape per month. She had taken money from over 100 people when this was divulged. In my calculation that is about an 8 year wait. So Ford has back peddled on the hybrid also. The last due date was the 1st of September. It is the 7th. how many have you seen?
    Here is the vehicle that was supposed to be out summer of 2003. Two more weeks and it is fall. Anyone wanna bet it don't make it by the end of summer?

    http://www.fordvehicles.com/escapehybrid/home/index.asp?redir=tru- - e&bhcp=1&&br=IE&ver=6&pfrm=Win2000
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    And look at Ford. Not a single person in Hollywood owns one

    Your absolutely right on. No one owns one in Hollywood or Iowa or anywhere else.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    "Japanese lead may put Big 3 in a hole, but sales still low
    But when asked about which new technologies they want most, hybrid powertrains rank well down on the list. For example, the most-sought after new technology was side air bags, cited by 79 percent of consumers surveyed. Hybrid technology ranked 23rd on the list of 29 technologies, at 28 percent. More consumers said they wanted side-mirror turn signals and rain-sensing wipers than a hybrid powertrain."
    http://www.detnews.com/2003/autosinsider/0305/19/a13-166939.htm

    "January through March was a great sales quarter for the Toyota Prius with 6,106 Americans joining the ranks of Cameron Diaz and Leonardo DiCaprio as Prius owners."
    http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/auto/20030507a1.asp
    April 2004
    "When the Hallowell resident bought her Prius a year and four months ago, she had three to choose from on the lot at Charlie's Toyota.
    Since then, gas prices have kept going up and up. And hybrids such as the Prius have all but disappeared from dealers' lots.
    http://kennebecjournal.mainetoday.com/news/local/561490.shtml

    The list of facts is endless that show two things about the Prius. It was NOT a big seller until the 2004 model year and Hollywood was a big part of the sales pitch. There was no wait if you wanted one the first 3 1/2 years they were in the states. To believe otherwise is delusional. The facts are not there.
  • john1701ajohn1701a Member Posts: 1,897
    Those "facts" are based on the grossly uninformed reports (and some that were written to intentionally mislead). You have fallen victim to the press, sorry.

    All throughout the first 2 years of Prius rollout, the car was slammed for alleged low sales. In reality, 100 percent of the quota was sold immediately.

    It's a simple trick. Those writers just focused on the actual quantity being purchased, rather than the fact that there was only a finite amount available.

    Had Prius been available like any other vehicle, where an ample supply was always in stock, a depiction of true market demand could have been derived. Instead, there was a just fixed quantity.

    Toyota stated they'd only build 15,000 that first year. So no matter how high the demand was, only 15,000 could be sold. Those reporters didn't care about that, nor did they care that people were waiting 6 months for delivery either. All they did was divide 15,000 by 17,000,000. That provided a result of just 1/10 of 1 percent of overall sales in the United States.

    What you also don't realize is that Toyota corporate owned the test-drive models, not the dealers. That forced the dealers to keep one on the lot at all times, since they obviously can't sell a vehicle they don't even have the title to. The every third month, Toyota corporate would send a new test-drive model. That provided one on the lot for immediate sale, no delivery wait.

    And still another fact you were clearly unaware of is that Toyota used Prius in rental fleets. So from time to time, you'd suddenly discover a dozen on the lot all for sale with only minor mileage on them.

    I'm sorry that you've been mislead by those reports. But I was there and very activitely participated in that history. In fact, the very reason I created my website was to help those endure the horribly long delivery wait. So if there is anything else about the history you'd like to know about, please ask.

    Remember, it is very difficult to distinguish between those that don't have the whole story and those that have been told a different story by someone either poorly informed or has the intent to make hybrids appear to be a failure.

    JOHN
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    That is all very nicely worded. However why would we believe the mainstream press are all making up stories and you have the facts. You have not presented any facts only your observation. You also totally ignore that several Hollywood types were instrumental in the rising popularity of the Prius. Is that denial or just that you wish, that fact would go away. Unfortunetly it will be several years before we know the true impact of the hybrid on the automotive world. I guess until then you and I will have to disagree on who's facts are true and who's are made up.

    I do consider you an authority on the Prius, just not the only one.
  • john1701ajohn1701a Member Posts: 1,897
    > You have not presented any facts only your observation.

    Read it again.

    The facts are there.

    Just look percent sold references both in what I provided and what is in those reports, they match.

    Then step back and look at the big picture. SUVs are nothing but hype. The design is gross overkill for the daily commute, yet a majority of people pay obsence amounts of money to use them for exactly that.

    Sales of Prius are strong and Toyota is on their way to achieving a tidy profit from HSD. There are a lot of people that will lose money because of that, and it makes for a story that the popular media does not want to cover. So naturally you are going to get a false impression of the actual success. And of course, some people simply fear change.

    Then step back even further. Cause of success makes no difference anyway. That undeniable fact is they are successful.

    Then... try to deny that the gas prices have not had any influence on the interest in hybrids. $$$$$ means far more than Hollywood appeal.

    JOHN
  • SylviaSylvia Member Posts: 1,636
    ...but you expected that, correct?

    Agree to disagree and for goodness sake - move on. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and interpretation of what they have read and experienced. Unless anyone here is a Honda or Toyota exec - we all interpret what we read/experience.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Then... try to deny that the gas prices have not had any influence on the interest in hybrids. $$$$$ means far more than Hollywood appeal.

    Let's say for the sake of argument most of what you have said is correct. There is no statistical document that I have seen or you have produced that says how profitable or unprofitable the Prius really is. Only innuendoes by Toyota corporate leaders that the new Prius is just about or close to being profitable. To me the future of hybrid lies in the ability of the automakers to build them at a profit. Also they will have to sell at close to the ICE only competitors as gas savings alone will not sell them. If gas prices, as you believe, go up to the $3.00 range. The hybrid will continue to have a good market. The one thing you and no one else has proven is the long range reliability of the HSD Prius. With only a year on the market it is not Proven reliable. As more people get over 100k miles on their Prius it will be easier to look at the reliability.
  • john1701ajohn1701a Member Posts: 1,897
    > If gas prices, as you believe, go up to the $3.00 range.

    I NEVER SAID THAT!!!

    My actual statement was $2 per gallon, not $3.

    I also said that $2.25 makes the cost pretty much a wash. Then I proceeded to point out that $2.50 makes the price totally a non-issue.

    Please don't misquote me.

    JOHN
  • falcononefalconone Member Posts: 1,726
    Gas prices have come down quite a bit, but the demand for the Prius hasn't. I wonder why? As usual the fortune tellers of edmunds are wrong again. It looks like hybrids are here to stay even with sub $2 gas. Looking forward to getting mine soon.
  • rfruthrfruth Member Posts: 630
    Wouldn't want gas to go to $ 3.00 a gallon and have the general public feel there being forced into a hybrid, we have some breathing room now so lets build up our mass transit system (& our cardiovascular systems) rather than have the knee jerk reaction we did during the Arab oil embargo of the 70s.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Speaking of mass transit, this article is interesting. I never thought of the problem in that light. I think diesel/hybrid buses are a good solution to mass transit for many areas.

    http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=15340
  • rfruthrfruth Member Posts: 630
    That is a good article and I agree short term it would be less costly to buy new cars for transit riders than build and subsidize new rail however thats exactly what we don't need, more congestion so kinda like a hybrid ya pay more up front but you get more, why get a smog belching diesel that gets 45 MPG and cost 20 grand if you or your kids spend 20 more grand on a breathing machine, now a 60 MPG 20 grand ULED diesel is a another story, ya may have to beat me back with a stick !
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