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The Future of Hybrid Technology
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I think there will be some disappointed hybrid owners that keep their cars past the generous battery warranty.
http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/27514/story.ht- m
The fact may be, the batteries might last longer than most VWs.
YMMV,
wcroswell
P.S.- Just think an ultra capacitor that could power the electric motor and also the sub-woofer!
The way we are progressing though, there is no reason to think that all the problems cannot be solved, as long as the RESEARCH MONEY is available....."
That's what they said about the battery technology for electric cars and look how that turned out. Money doesn't always equate with a break-through. Maybe we'll solve the hydrogen problems in 5 years, but maybe it'll take 50 or 100 years. No guarantees.
Absolutely - but without the money, no one can even TRY to have the breakthrough. It costs money to pay good scientists and pay for good equipment. A group of unfunded high school kids is unlikely to have a revolutionary breakthrough, although anything is possible.
Sure, it may take a while, just like the battery technology, but unless something easier/cheaper/better comes along, money will be spent on Hydrogen fuel cell technology, and progress WILL be made...
Where is the ultracapacitor in relationship to it's possible use in a hybrid? Are they 1-5-10 years from reality? They seem to be available for small electronic devices. Are they very expensive at this time? I think VW is taking a more realistic approach. Let someone else spend the money and we will continue to sell known technology that sells.
From a pbs.org story:
"Each school day nearly 600,000 school buses transport 24 million students to and from school nationwide. The majority of buses are powered by diesel fuel creating exhaust that contains forty different compounds, which are listed as hazardous air pollutants under the Clean Air Act. Three of these chemicals are known human carcinogens. In fact, according to John Wargo, Professor of Risk Analysis and Environmental Policy at Yale University, diesel exhaust from school buses ranks as among the top five key threats to children's health, resulting from poor environmental conditions."
Low-sulfur diesel fuel is better and Biodeisel is even better than that, but still, if we are attempting to produce "cleaner" high MPG cars and trucks, diesel is not much of a help.....:)
But, in addition, new areas are being looked at, and it could yield returns in the longer term. To put this in perspective, Honda has been developing electric motors since 1989. The company has also ventured into new areas. Today, Honda is using its home grown Fuel Cell stack and its home grown Ultra Capacitor pack in its production fuel cell vehicle (FCX).
Now, these new ventures may (or may not) be useful in automotive applications in the long term, who knows? But, they could allow Honda to gain experience and be able to diversify its business in new areas. Sometimes, it works that way. While we may not be able to relate ASIMO (Honda’s Humanoid Robot) to automobiles, I have read a news item that mentioned Honda developing a stability system for automobiles that is derived from the system (for the same purpose) in ASIMO. We shall see if (and when) that happens, but I would never count experience gained, out.
Back in the hybrid world, much of the pieces of the technologies have developed and matured quite well. The only major area at the moment is battery technology but that is true for most of the gadgetry we use today. It is said that gadget technology evolved faster than the batteries could. But it shouldn’t take too long for the latter to catch up.
And ultra capacitors hold their own promise. The technology has seen major improvements in recent years. Honda has already tied UC pack to IMA in a prototype (Honda Dual Note, 2001 Tokyo Motor Show) and is using it in FCX. It is a matter of time this thing finds its way into production hybrid vehicles. Cost may be a concern at the moment, but that’s part of technological evolution. And in more expensive cars, “premium” is easier to hide than in budget cars.
And UC will not need to be replaced.
BMW X5 Hybrid Prototype
I think people that buy hybrid miss the point. If saving fossil fuel is the goal, that was accomplished over 30 years ago and repeated in several brands with both gas and diesel. 50 mpg is not a milestone accomplished only by hybrid. I consider it part of the industrial smoke screen. It is a way to get research money from the government. Billions have been spent and they still are wallowing around at 50 mpg. If someone wants to spend extra to play into this sham it's their money. It is not good economy anyway you slice it.
An then there is ongoing cost ( GAS , tires, service, insurance, depreciation ).
And with oil at $52 a barrel and potential of substained high costs and the possibility of heating fuel shortages, gas prices will probably continue to rise and most likely won't drop even if the hurricane offshore oil supplies are restored.
People are less concerned about the initial cost and more concerned about gas cost.
Then there is the concern about clean air and emissions. While I think most people would like a car that had cleaner emissions and if two cars were equal would choose the lower emission car. There are very very few that choose a car because it is "green".
Techno features. There are those that want the latest and greatest techno features whether they need them or not. Toyota made a very smart move by offering some techno features on the Prius. It expanded the demographic market significantly?
Any way bottom line the purchase price ( fixed sunk cost) is not the biggest issue, the bigger issue is long-term variable operation cost.
YMMV,
MidCow
That's certainly the not the message being conveyed from the 2004 Michelin Challenge Bibendum held this week in Shanghai. Of the more than 150 vehicles registered to participate in this year's competition, 70 of them were electric-drive; and of these, the vast majority (46) were battery electric-powered cars and two-wheelers built in China.
http://www.evworld.com/view.cfm?section=article&storyid=764
Electric Moped
Hybrid Scooter
Fuel Cell Scooter
Electric, hybrid and even fuel cell technologies are likely to benefit from each other.
I fully agree. I just think the major automakers have done their best to block all electric vehicles. They have too much invested in ICE technology to let it get tossed out. Fuel cells are not going to be wide spread in my lifetime, maybe yours. I want a practical vehicle that I can plug in and run to the store or theater that uses 1/4 the energy of the current hybrids. That technology exists and it looks like the Chinese will kick the US & Japanese automaker's butts on getting them to market...
In case of Honda, EV research started back in late 1980s and the first on-road vehicle was the EV-Plus. It had to deal with energy storage issues, and became the first production vehicle to use NiMH battery pack. At that time, little was known regarding effectiveness of these rechargeable battery packs, and often assumed to last only 3-5 years. With all the questions, it wasn’t practical to sell these vehicles to mainstream buyers, hence leased to fleet.
Another major issue was that you had to plug in the vehicle, rendering the power grid to be the energy source. It would take a while for these batteries to recharge, and the range was still limited (about 80 miles, I believe). For greater range, you would need larger storage and so on.
So, it is not that EV did not get their share of attention, but that there were limitations that couldn’t have been acceptable in the mainstream market place. Besides cost, range was a huge issue. A good solution would be to have on-board generator, but generator would run on fuel!
Eventually, EV had to give way to hybrid technology. Now, no plug in needed, and hybrids, with improved fuel economy, could return longer range than conventional vehicles. If you look at Honda’s approach, the idea is not only to improve efficiency of ICE (which is necessary, since most cars will still depend on it in the foreseeable future), but also improving the electrical components (storage and the motor/generator itself).
Not too long ago, ultra capacitors were looking up at the batteries in terms of energy density. And now, they have already surpassed them in some cases. So, the evolution continues. Who is to say that EV with UC in the future couldn’t have as much range as conventional vehicles today? This is why I mentioned that these technologies are benefiting each other, and depending on the direction future takes us, any, or a combination of these technologies will be there.
As for Fuel Cell, yes, the fuel part is an issue, and will be for some time. But, development has to continue, and there is no better way for quality management to have test mules up and running in reality, and that’s being achieved via FCX leased to several agencies (including City of LA and City of San Francisco). But in the end, Honda FCX is the EV-Plus that we saw. It is still using the Honda electric motor that it did as EV-Plus (although now uprated from 68 HP to 80 HP).
Instead of batteries, FCX is using Honda’s home grown ultra capacitor pack as (secondary) source of energy. Fuel cell stack creates electricity to drive the electric motor to drive the vehicle, and the UC pack is ready on demand from the electric motor whenever there is need. Regenerative braking is used to recharge the UC pack.
Improvement of any form in the electric motor and storage device (in this case, UC pack) is going to help EV technology as well as hybrid technology.
You are indeed correct that GM in particular had a large investment in the EV techology of the 90s.
But we must never forget the powers that be in this country are spelled "BIG OIL" and they will NOT allow themselves to be mainstreamed out of the #1 means of transportation in this country. Ever. NEVER.
Thus, a "compromise" was reached - a car that uses an electric motor to "ASSIST" the BREAD and BUTTER of the Big Oil machine, the I.C.E.
Read my lips: the Big oil companies will NEVER allow themselves to get pushed out of the loop into second-class citizen status. In the next 100 years we will never see a mainstream technology come along that will elminate ENTIRELY the need for fossil fuels and will replace I.C.E. vehicles as the majority of vehicles on the U.S. roads.
NOT because the technology will not be there, but because Big Oil will not allow it.
You are indeed correct that GM in particular had a large investment in the EV techology of the 90s.
But we must never forget the powers that be in this country are spelled "BIG OIL" and they will NOT allow themselves to be mainstreamed out of the #1 means of transportation in this country. Ever. NEVER.
Thus, a "compromise" was reached - a car that uses an electric motor to "ASSIST" the BREAD and BUTTER of the Big Oil machine, the I.C.E.
Read my lips: the Big oil companies will NEVER allow themselves to get pushed out of the loop into second-class citizen status. In the next 100 years we will never see a mainstream technology come along that will elminate ENTIRELY the need for fossil fuels and will replace I.C.E. vehicles as the majority of vehicles on the U.S. roads.
NOT because the technology will not be there, but because Big Oil will not allow it.
You repeated your self. But that is the absolute gospel TRUTH!!!!
LARSB
I knew you and I would agree on something one of these days...
RobertMX
That was a great synopsis of the evolution of EV and hybrid.
Yeah, but too bad it had to be on a subject so hopeless and depressing as the Environment Smashing Vice Grip that Big Oil has on our country......:(
Then the oil companies are going to be in DEEP yogurt when the world's oil production begins to plummet in the next 20 - 30 years. Gas prices will go through the roof - until there simply IS no more gas to buy. Hydrogen will not be the answer; it takes the energy of three gallons of gas to produce enough hydrogen to produce the energy of one gallon of gas (I will not swear to the precision of those numbers, but they are in the ballpark). Read David Goodstein's book, "Out of Gas: the End of the Age of Oil". It's enough to make old age look like a desirable position.
jprice
I guess you believed also that George Orwell's book "1984" was a historical rather than fiction.
What will affect the future of Hybrids, diesels and gas ICEs are efficiency, new energy sources or the acceptance of high potential known sources. Other factors such as the assumption that everyone has the right to own 1.3 petroleum powered vehicles has a large impact.
It has often been said to truly understand a man , you must walk a mile in his shoes How can you know, if you haven't even met the man let alone put his shoes on ?
YMMV,
MidCow
I'm not familiar with those figures. One of the BP engineers told us that the Prudhoe and surrounding oil fields would be producing oil at least till 2050. The flow rate may go down. They keep bringing new wells on line every year. The field has been producing 1-2 million barrels a day since 1978.
I'm not saying the oil will never run out. I just wonder who came up with those figures and what scientific study was involved. I think the Chinese desire to buy cars will impact the World oil supply tremendously.
If Toyota doesn't get it and if the main supporters of the current HSD technology don't get it then pretty soon their sales will plummet.
What is it they don't get you ask? Performance If you focus only on "green" you lose. If you focus only on "high economy" you lose.
As Yogi Berra would say or did say 'This is deja Vu al over again" . If you remember back to the gas crisus of the mid-70s. They almost over night made v8 into 4 cylinder engines and perfomance went way down. No one like it, they only endured.
People are only enduring with Toyota's haughty attitude toward the Prius. People won't forget, Toyota doesn't realize it but for every person that endure the harrassment and wait to obtain a slow Prius , they have alienated another 10 buyers permanaetly. Toyota will soon face the "iceberg syndrome". Rememr when Levis were the only jeans in town or when railroads said they would always be king of transportation. Toyota is myoptic about the Prius and hybrid technology in general and they seem to have fooled most of thier cunrent supporters.
Maybe Honda with the HAH or GM with the Siverado Hybrid 100Volt genrato can save the drowning hybrid ship!
YMMV,
MidCow
I think you are right. A few will embrace the high mileage poor performance hybrids. The masses want to get to work without watching a little screen telling them they are using too much fuel.
I think the all electric vehicles for around town driving and the diesel for the highway is where the future of automobiles will be. EVs have to overcome the storage problem to ever be highway useable. Hybrids are too complex and finicky about the way you have to drive to get decent mileage. I think the Prius is already reaching it's saturation point. More dealers are sitting on them for week or two for someone to come in and pay their over MSRP prices. The buying public is wising up to this scam. By the end of 2005 I would bet that you will get a Prius for under MSRP if you can negotiate at all.
*A FEW*? Are you kidding? Have you seen estimates of the number of Hybrids expected to be sold in the next couple of years? See this Business Week article: http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/04_44/b3906051_mz011- - - .htm
And you think people are waiting just to get a "hot rod" Hybrid? I can see their little thought balloons now - "Dang, I want a high mileage vehicle, but I need to be able to go 0-60 in 7 seconds - DARN IT!!" Puh-Leaze.....:) Sure people want "decent" performance, but are they crowing for "high performance?" They get decent performance now.
And "poor performance*? Have you driven an 2004 Prius? They have all the acceleration you need under normal circumstances, i.e. freeway merging, passing on two lane roads, etc. Who considers it a "poor performer?" Maybe comparing it to a Hot Rod Mustang GT, sure it is. But comparing it to cars in ITS OWN CATEGORY, i.e. any other mainstream five passenger "decent mileage" import four banger does not leave it in the "poor performer" category.
If people are waiting for a "Hot Rod Hybrid" before making hybrids more mainstream, then it will NEVER happen that way. ANY VEHICLE that is purchased with the intent of high performance WILL NOT also achieve high MPG numbers with the current level of technology - it's just simple Physics, the laws of which cannot be denied or avoided.
Bottom line is this: If a car is driven as a high performance car, is cannot be also a high MPG car. It CAN BE a "high MPG car" in it's own CLASS of car, but truly high MPG (50+) will NEVER be a hot rod.
I drove the first Prius in San Diego county. I thought it was more than adequate for most driving circumstances. What I am seeing that bothers me more is problems reported that the Toyota service people are scratching their heads over. People leaving their cars for weeks and no resolution. 2004 Prius stopping on the highway with no good reason. Then they go again. That is the complexity I am addressing. I believe the shortages of Prius in the 2004+ MY has been one of two things. shortage of parts or contrived shortage by Toyota because it is not a real money maker. They put that car out and everyone thinks they are some kind of environmental genius. Personally I would rather have had the all electric RAV4. Most of the trips I make around town are under 20 miles total. I come home plug it in and use 1/4 to 1/2 the fossil fuel of the best hybrid. Many articles have been written explaining why companies like Toyota and GM do not want EV in the market place. They are too simple and would eliminate much of their manufacturing. Plus as you and others have pointed out the electric motor lasts a long time.
It CAN BE a "high MPG car" in it's own CLASS of car, but truly high MPG (50+) will NEVER be a hot rod.
I think the Accord diesel pretty much blows that theory. After driving 24 hours at 130+ mph average, both cars got 76+ mpg on a return road trip. And in a car that out handles and out performs any hybrid on the market at this time. Clean diesel cars,when they become available in a year or two, will outsell hybrids.
You must have misspoken - no "real" car can achieve 76 miles per gallon while driving 130 mph - not possible.
The Accord Diesel specs out at 130 horsepower and 9.4 seconds in 0-60 >>>>>> not really a "hot rod" now is it? It is rated at 52.3 MPG, which is fine, and has a top speed of 130 mph. But when and if you are cruising along a 130 mph, you are getting about 12-16 MPG at that moment.....
The Accord Diesel IS doing something right in achieving high MPG for sure, though it is still no Hot Rod. Here is a news release I found on the web:
"Honda's new Accord 2.2 i-CTDi Sport has just set 19 world speed records and then achieved 3.07 litres / 100 km (92 mpg) fuel economy as an encore. Amongst the speed records set at a test track in Germany, which were all achieved in Production Car Class B (2000 - 2500 cc), the most impressive was an average speed of 130.38 mph over a 24-hour period. Two production cars, randomly selected by FIA officials, were used to undertake the speed records, and apart from the fitting of roll-cages, racing harnesses and radio equipment for track-to-pits communication, no other modifications were made to the cars. Following the speed record attempts, the same two cars were then driven 419 miles from Papenburg test track to Wiesbaden, near Frankfurt in order to complete the fuel economy run. The route comprised of a mixture of motorway and non-motorway driving, during which one of the Accords achieved a remarkable 92 mpg average."
92 MPG over a 419 mile route? I'll take that regardless of the 130 MPH capability - which none of us in the real world need....
Yes i have drivine a prius and yes I have drived a Jetta TDI 5-speed and well they are slow. Most acclerations test show a 0-60 mph time of somewhere around 11 seconds. 0-60 mph time is a standard metric to measure performance.
My definiton of a muscle car or a hot rod or a high perfomance car without going completely exotic is something around 6 seconds of less going 0-60 mph.
Now that leaves a wide range of cars that aren't "hot rods" in the 6-11 second 0 to 60 mph performance range. The averge car acceleration is now in the 8-9 second range, all other Toyotas except the Corolla 4 cylinder auto and almost all SUVs and Trucks can out accelrate the Prius.
Let's face it the Prius is slow! slow! Everyone agrees it has low emissions and gets very good Miles per gallon., but no matter how you look at it or how you measure it , the Prius is SLOW.
YMMV,
MidCow
I would
Well, I guess "slow" can be interpreted in many different ways, like Clinton said, "That depends on what your definition of IS is."
I know when I test drove the Prius, I took it on the highway, merged at full throttle, got to cruising speed and then gunned it at 65 mph to pass another car, and by golly, it managed it in decent fashion without making me feel like I was poking along. I didn't want to race anyone, but as far as getting the job done without putting me or my kids in danger, it DID that !!
Hyper Acceleration is a good tool to have as a safety feature, to get you out of a split second jam, etc., but it is NOT a required feature on a car. I owned a 1992 Infiniti Q45 w/278 HP, and that baby would accell out of any jam in town - but it only got about 23 MPG on a good day.
I realize the 0-60 measure is standard, but in the REAL WORLD, how many times do people actually do THAT? I know, I know, some people do it often, but I mean in NORMAL driving techniques in a regular commute, how often?
My argument was that "people are not WAITING for a Hybrid to come along that is a high performance car" before they start buying them like hotcakes. They just aren't. That's not the point of the technology.
So did you intend to say the only reason people accept "low power" Hybrids now is FUD and high gas prices?
I bought my Hybrid for about 20% environmental reasons and about 80% to save fuel costs REGARDLESS of where gas prices go, but not because prices were rising - remember, last year at this time gas was about 43 cents cheaper than now. So whether gas is $1.25 a gallon or $3.25 a gallon, if you are getting 50 MPG you are still helping yourself by getting a high MPG car.
So good move for anyone buying a high MPG car in the future, hybrid or not, although diesels are so stinky and dirty that a gas hybrid is certainly preferred...
I don't think I said they were driving 130 mph when they got the 76 MPG US. At least you found where this is not a dream car but a reality. The version being sold in Europe is probably heavier and running different tires. I would still take that 44mpg US combined over any of the current hybrids. Oh and diesel is now cheaper again than unleaded. I just drove to Vegas and back. Out in the middle of nowhere in the desert this gas station was selling Unleaded for $3.699 and diesel for $2.399..... Soon we will be in the same situation as Europe and the only logical choice will be diesel.
"AAA Alabama's daily report shows gasoline prices continue their upward spiral around the state and the country. Thursday's survey shows regular unleaded averages a $1.91; midgrades are about $2.06; premium fuels average $2.12; and diesel prices also hover around the $2.12 mark. Birmingham-based AAA said all fuels are up about one-third to a half-cent from Wednesday. Spokesman Clay Engram said he thinks gas prices will decrease, but it may take a while."
Another:
"On Thursday, a gallon of regular gas sold for an average $2.38 in Sacramento, according to AAA. That was a record high and 33 percent higher than the average $1.79 of one year ago. A gallon of premium gas sold Thursday for an average $2.57, and a gallon of diesel sold for an average $2.48. The average California price for a gallon of regular was a record $2.45, up 35 percent from $1.81 one year ago. The U.S. price for regular was $2.02, less than the record $2.05 set May 26."
Another:
"Diesel fuel prices broke ahead of gasoline prices this summer and have been setting daily records for weeks. A gallon of diesel in Minnesota on Tuesday averaged $2.17, according to AAA, 56 cents more than a year ago."
So actually, Diesel is higher right now, might not stay higher, but even if cheaper it is still NASTY on the human body...
It is a bigger polluter only because congress has not given the EPA the authority to force ULSD to be mandated before 2006. And then it will not be required for ships, trains and offroad equipment until about 2012.
"Ocean-going ships that cruised past Santa Barbara's coast each year emitted more smog-forming pollution than all vehicles on the county's roads combined."
In the mean time we are not given any real option for saving fossil fuel. And you cannot say the hybrid is an option. They trickle them out like they were gold. They are not as profitable as straight ICE vehicles and probably never will be. So they sell what amounts to a pittance to get their CAFE mileages in line. Meanwhile if you want a decent high mileage car you have very few options in all but 5 states. That is the MB E320 CDI or the VW TDIs. I for one have access to ULSD and would be happy to pay the extra price (Today $2.53 per Gal) to drive a high mileage vehicle. Plus the biggest advantage is a diesel car will run on Bio-diesel that is 100% home grown, try that in you hybrid.
From Seattle Times article
Worldwide, ships also are a leading source of smog-forming nitrogen oxides. Their exhaust contains dozens of known carcinogens and is high in particulate matter, fine particles of pollution that lodge in the lungs and can cause asthma, respiratory problems and premature death.
The vessels are powered by low-quality diesel bunker fuel, so dirty each particle of exhaust legally can be 3,000 times higher in sulfur than the fuel soon to be used by new diesel trucks. Even industry lobbyists have said international ship-fuel standards for sulfur, a primary component of acid rain, are ridiculously high.
Ships in the Los Angeles/Long Beach ports already produce nearly as much smog as Southern California's 350 largest industrial polluters combined.
Actually, the Honda Civic Hybrid is readily available in all 50 states. And by this time next year, there will be about 10-15 Hybrid models readily available from multiple manufacturers.
Remember you saw it here. THAT is not going to happen. I would be real surprised if Toyota has their RX400h on the dealer's lots by next year. Ford only plans to build 20k hybrid Escapes. Honda says 20k HAH. I know the dealer here in my area did not have any hybrid Civics in stock and they sell @ $1000 over MSRP when he gets one. I don't believe Toyota ever reached their goal of 47,000 Prius for MY 2004. The ones trickling in now are 2005. If their is 6 choices to wait for in 2005 that would be more than I would guess. Remember the same people that control the oil companies sit on the boards of the automakers, and spend their idle time playing golf together.
Right now there are already 5, (HCH, Prius, Insight, Escape, Silverado) so saying there will be fewer than 6 is kinda on the dangerously pessimistic side, eh?
You think that by October 2005 the Lexus and the Accord will not be available? That would make 7. Getting closer to 10.....
Highlander is coming. 2006 Altima Hybrid is coming. Diesel-Electric Dodge Ram is coming.
Regardless of who thinks they are a Fad and who knows they are here to stay, the Hybrids ARE COMING !! Hide the Women and Children !!!
As long as these over indulgent people with their ego battleships continue to disregard the reality of their excessives we will continue to drag our feet when it comes to real progress. When it becomes popular to think GREEN then maybe we'll begin to move in the right direction. Toyota's PRIUS is a viable step in that direction. If you owned one you might see the light. Culliganman (ding ding) How now GREEN Cow!
Optimism is not a bad thing. I did not count the Silverado as a hybrid, it is a push... Have not read anything on the Dodge hybrid Ram. That may be something I could use. I like that Cummins diesel.
I think it goes more in cycles. In the 1960s we got the VW Bug and it got great mileage compared to all the muscle cars. in the 1970s the cars got smaller with a slight increase in fuel economy. In the 1980s we got the CRX HF and I thought we were on the right track with a true 50 mpg car. The 1990s was an age of greed and we lost sight of the mileage goals achieved in the 1980s. Now it is back with not much gain in my opinion. For example my wife's 1990 Lexus LS400 has the same EPA mileage rating as the New LS430. No improvement in fuel economy or emissions in 15 years. Europe has a big selection of high mileage clean diesels. With all of the battling environmental factions in this country I don't look for a lot of improvement. All the environmental groups have an agenda that they cannot compromise on and the Oil companies love it.
http://www.austinchronicle.com/issues/dispatch/2004-10-22/pols_fe- ature16.html
http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/business/9864083.htm