Chronic Car Buyers Anonymous (Archived)

fintail

It might be location-dependent. I think the right place in the Puget Sound area could make a good go of it - a place where dual incomes are virtually mandatory unless one has family help. There are numerous locations out there, so someone found a way to make it work, or I'd assume they'd move on.

Michaell said:

The owners aren't making as much as you think - when you factor labor, materials (food, toys, etc), plus rent and utilities, they aren't clearing all that much.

My wife had an opportunity to buy a school from the owner - it was the only child care center in town. She passed, and decided to leave for a job as the director of a corporate-owned school. The private center closed down shortly thereafter.

qbrozen

28firefighter said:

I understand why the cost is high and I'm thrilled that Sam is in a good childcare facility where he is thriving.

The cost is what it is to some extent. Rents for space are high as is demand. We have friends paying $2800 a month full time for facilities they aren't happy with, but were the only place they got a slot. 

I'm also lucky that I can start funding, in small amounts, his 529 fund even now. I'll likely redirect most of the money from childcare to that once he's out and the rest to savings. 

I have always refused to open a 529. Good thing because I seriously doubt either of my kids is headed for college. 

28firefighter

To keep this on topic for discussion, the owners of Sam's daycare drive a 12 year old Range Rover. I asked them how often they were actually able to drive it without it breaking and they just laughed.

kyfdx

Being older when my child was born (35), I decided against 529 plans, due to restrictions. More or less, those funds were used to increase my 401K contribution. I decided that if I needed the funds for school, I could bridge the 5-6 years from the start of college with loans, until I could withdraw without penalty from the retirement accounts. That way, if scholarships, etc paid for school, the funds wouldn't be restricted.

Fortunately, by the time he started college, I had enough cash flow to pay college expenses, and that extra money in tax deferred funds over 20 years made a big difference in our retirement accounts.

We were lucky financially for a number of reasons, but the math/reasoning was sound, either way.
Might be a different calculation if you are under 30 yrs old.

28firefighter

I won't go too far into it, but at exactly 30, our retirement contributions are maxed out. I'm looking at a high likelihood that Sam goes to college (or a second child potentially), so the tax free growth would be nice...but it brings up a valid point that college is an investment these days and one that does not make sense for every child.

andres3

fintail said:

And as was mentioned above, pay is often not high, at least not in larger operations. Probably a combination of somewhat transitory workers, expenses, and maybe thirsty owners. No doubt the owners can operate it like their own mint, but the rest, not so much. My sister wasn't paid commensurate to her duties and the amount of people she managed, so she eventually resigned. Definitely an industry where you want to be an owner, or maybe not be involved at all.

28firefighter said:

Revenues are high, but so is overhead. At least here in Seattle. 

I spoke to the owners of our facility here. They're an older couple that retired from their first careers in finance. They recognized the lack of facilities here that weren't just collecting a check by doing the bare minimum and decided to try their hand at it. Both of them acknowledge they could charge more, but neither is really interested in the money all that much, so much of whatever they have is pumped back into the staff and keeping the facilities updated. 

I'll vouch for that. We used a big corporate Child care center, and it seems 99% of the money is being sucked and leeched out of the parents into corporate henchmen at the top. The facilities get neglected, the teachers get neglected (and underpaid) which in turn results in in higher turnover, which in turn results in higher HR costs (mentioned by @Michaell It's a bad management cycle and domino effect. When we started there were 10-year people in the infant room, but the turnover is crazy! I think they put senior staff in the infant room so they don't scare new parents away with all the under 2 year employees.

With the amount of kids they have, I just can't see how it isn't highly profitable. Of course, they were recently in the news and fined by the CA Licensing board for repeated violations. Once you get on their radar, they keep attacking the facility until they get everything perfect. The fines are tiny compared to traffic fines though. Apparently a couple disgruntled former employees went after them. I'm sure some of it was deserved.

Anyways, the corporation made the top 2 heads at the center roll in response to the fines and penalties (they don't fine you typically until you have a repeated violation).

Mr_Shiftright

qbrozen said:

stickguy said:

got the latest loan statement on the RDX yesterday. Payoff now below $1k. Next payment on 8/14, then the final one in September, and it finally comes off the books. Will be nice to have one paid off again. Darned college expenses!

Funny, I was just looking at the T&C statement this morn. 35 payments to go. haha. 

"In the final quarter of 2012, the average term of a new car note stretched out to 65 months, the longest ever, according to Experian Information Solutions Inc. Experian said that 17% of all new car loans in the past quarter were between 73 and 84 months and there were even a few as long as 97 months. Four years ago, only 11% of loans fell into this category." WSJ

tifighter

If I have 97 months to pay off something, it will be a house.

roadburner

I usually get a 60 month loan and pay it off in around two years or so.

Mr_Shiftright

8 years to pay off one car. I need to let that sink in.

fintail

I'd have taken an 8 year loan on a 300SL Gullwing - in 1975

pensfan83

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-17/new-u-s-subprime-boom-same-old-sins-auto-defaults-are-soaring

This is rather unsettling.

pensfan83

Since we're on the topic of college funding, a proposition I'm not even remotely looking forward, we got into the habit several years ago of placing most of our yearly merit increases into an investment vehicle such as 401(k), Roth, or upping contributions to Noah and Quinn's 529 plans keeping us "revenue neutral" for the most part. If something unexpected arises where we need more cash flow we can pull back and still have good contributions.

If we didn't have the support we did from our families for the kids none of that would be possible.

stickguy

5 years is my max. If I am not comfortable (and conservative) with that payment, I will get a cheaper car. In the past, whatever I took out, I always paid off at least 1-2 years early (and that was normally just a 3 year long, 4 max). The RDX was a bit of a splurge, at the end of college for kid #1, so we went 5, and only ran it out to the end due to cash flow on kid #2.

if I buy something later in the year, unless really cheap, I will likely take out a long long but pay it off in a much shorter time.

ab348

pensfan83 said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-17/new-u-s-subprime-boom-same-old-sins-auto-defaults-are-soaring

This is rather unsettling.

On the bright side, great deals on late-model used vehicles are coming soon!

qbrozen

Mr_Shiftright said:

"In the final quarter of 2012, the average term of a new car note stretched out to 65 months, the longest ever, according to Experian Information Solutions Inc. Experian said that 17% of all new car loans in the past quarter were between 73 and 84 months and there were even a few as long as 97 months. Four years ago, only 11% of loans fell into this category." WSJ

We took 72 months on the T&C. It was 1.9%, so we figured why not.

28firefighter

Taking out a 60 month loan on the GTI (0.9% IIRC) hurt my CCBA heart. I cannot imagine taking longer.

kyfdx

So, what the heck is going on with the weather up there?

I was hoping to go around this time, to get the warmest, driest time of year. Now, I feel fortunate that we couldn't come until Labor Day.

kyfdx

Okay, it's time for guess my repair bill.

Took the wife's 2011 X3 in for scheduled maintenance.
Oil/filter change
Brake fluid flush
Cabin microfilter replacement.

Car has 93K miles. For bonus points, please estimate price for repairs/maintenance needs discovered during inspection.

kyfdx

On another note.. When we bought her car in 2013, I was really happy to get the straight-6, instead of the new turbo-4. Boy, was I wrong... The loaner with the turbo-4 will blow away her six-cylinder.

28firefighter

kyfdx said:

So, what the heck is going on with the weather up there?

I was hoping to go around this time, to get the warmest, driest time of year. Now, I feel fortunate that we couldn't come until Labor Day.

We get hot spells up here for a few weeks scattered across the summer - nothing overly surprising. Though this week is particularly warm and makes me glad we had that ductless A/C system installed...

@fintail, @tifighter or @murphydog can better tell you what it's been like historically, but that has been my experience for the most part since moving up here.

kyfdx

28firefighter said:

kyfdx said:

So, what the heck is going on with the weather up there?

I was hoping to go around this time, to get the warmest, driest time of year. Now, I feel fortunate that we couldn't come until Labor Day.

We get hot spells up here for a few weeks scattered across the summer - nothing overly surprising. Though this week is particularly warm and makes me glad we had that ductless A/C system installed...

@fintail knows better what it's been like historically, but that has been my experience for the most part since moving up here.

I saw that Portland was looking at 107 F today...

28firefighter

kyfdx said:

Okay, it's time for guess my repair bill.

Took the wife's 2011 X3 in for scheduled maintenance.
Oil/filter change
Brake fluid flush
Cabin microfilter replacement.

Car has 93K miles. For bonus points, please estimate price for repairs/maintenance needs discovered during inspection.

$1500. Easy.

28firefighter

kyfdx said:

On another note.. When we bought her car in 2013, I was really happy to get the straight-6, instead of the new turbo-4. Boy, was I wrong... The loaner with the turbo-4 will blow away her six-cylinder.

That turbo-4 is the same one that we have in the X1 - it is downright quick. Makes me wonder how a 35i drives, but that would just be teasing myself.

pensfan83

The Altima's loan was for five years but we're on track to pay it off a year early next June. At this point no plans to get something new, sacrilege to say in this thread I know, but if we did and the price point was roughly the same I would try to target four years since we were able to do it this time with no issues.

I couldn't imagine going over five years for a loan either though unless it was a 0% interest loan.

kyfdx

28firefighter said:

kyfdx said:

On another note.. When we bought her car in 2013, I was really happy to get the straight-6, instead of the new turbo-4. Boy, was I wrong... The loaner with the turbo-4 will blow away her six-cylinder.

That turbo-4 is the same one that we have in the X1 - it is downright quick. Makes me wonder how a 35i drives, but that would just be teasing myself.

In the RWD-based X3, it makes 20 more horsepower, so I don't know if it's the exact same.. but, it's the same size. We've had X1 loaners, as well, and I really like them. But, my wife really hated the old body style, and can't seem to differentiate between them (you know, because she is elderly.. lol). I'd much rather get an X1 than an X3 for her next car, but that might not be worth the $5000 savings.

roadburner

kyfdx said:

Okay, it's time for guess my repair bill.

Took the wife's 2011 X3 in for scheduled maintenance.
Oil/filter change
Brake fluid flush
Cabin microfilter replacement.

Car has 93K miles. For bonus points, please estimate price for repairs/maintenance needs discovered during inspection.

I wouldn't pay over $300 for the scheduled maintenance. I'm betting the valve cover gasket and the oil filter housing gasket are seeping- $800

pensfan83

Oil/filter - $100
Brake fluid flush - $399(?)
Cabin filter - $100(?)

I'd say you are are in for $500 minimum and they'll probably hit you with another $600 in recommendations so you're probably around $1,100-$1,200

pensfan83

BTW I have no idea what maintenance costs now on BMW/Audi's...when I had my previous A4 I never got out of the dealer for less than $300 but that was over a decade ago. Never found the need to know this time around...God bless AudiCare.

stickguy

Well, on my Acura RDX at the dealer, about $200

stickguy

kyfdx said:

On another note.. When we bought her car in 2013, I was really happy to get the straight-6, instead of the new turbo-4. Boy, was I wrong... The loaner with the turbo-4 will blow away her six-cylinder.

I loved that motor when I test drove the new style X1, and a 2 series. Quick, good mpg.

Mr_Shiftright

8 years of car payments. I need to let that sink in.

pensfan83 said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-17/new-u-s-subprime-boom-same-old-sins-auto-defaults-are-soaring

This is rather unsettling.

It's true of many other "creative" derivatives being peddled right now. 2008, here we come? Hope not.

Mr_Shiftright

qbrozen said:

Mr_Shiftright said:

"In the final quarter of 2012, the average term of a new car note stretched out to 65 months, the longest ever, according to Experian Information Solutions Inc. Experian said that 17% of all new car loans in the past quarter were between 73 and 84 months and there were even a few as long as 97 months. Four years ago, only 11% of loans fell into this category." WSJ

We took 72 months on the T&C. It was 1.9%, so we figured why not.

Almost free money.

qbrozen

kyfdx said:

Okay, it's time for guess my repair bill.

Took the wife's 2011 X3 in for scheduled maintenance.
Oil/filter change
Brake fluid flush
Cabin microfilter replacement.

Car has 93K miles. For bonus points, please estimate price for repairs/maintenance needs discovered during inspection.

I am thinking $75 oil, $129 brake fluid, and $50 cabin filter. So $254 plus tax.

What did they find? another $1250 worth.

kyfdx

Guesses were pretty good overall.

$470 total for the three items, with tax. 1.9 hrs labor at $126/hr. The rest is parts and tax. I had a credit from last year, when they installed a bad part, which left my wife broke down when it failed. So, my out of pocket was zero.

The amazing part: clean bill of health, otherwise. For a 93K mile vehicle, that hadn't been in for service in 12 months!

But, my service indicators show front brakes in 4K miles, and rear brakes in 10K miles, so it's coming.

kyfdx

Last year, $900 estimate turned into $2900..

stickguy

Crazy mark up on that. Parts basically the same, labor probably too, how can Acura dealer charge 1/2 the cost(actually more like 40%)?

andres3

28firefighter said:

Taking out a 60 month loan on the GTI (0.9% IIRC) hurt my CCBA heart. I cannot imagine taking longer.

Toyota/Lexus' 0% financing program maxes out at 60 months. My Parents took advantage of it, and have a huge monthly payment, but were able to put zero down on the new ES300H.

Zero down creates such a huge monthly payment though! You have to keep reminding yourself you didn't pay for it before, so you pay for it monthly. I sort of did the same with the Audi TTS. Very expensive car, but I put about half down; normally a good thing, but took out a short low interest (1.49%) 42-month loan.

fintail

Statistically, this is the driest time of year here, although the past few years seem more arid (in summer) than when I was younger. I think the heatwave forecast for Seattle, especially forecast for tomorrow and Friday, will be a few degrees cooler than was predicted not long ago. Too much smoke coming down from the big fires up in BC. Portland might still become fire and brimstone, however.

The AC unit I bought 11 years ago was the best investment I've ever made. Sleeping is nice.

28firefighter said:

We get hot spells up here for a few weeks scattered across the summer - nothing overly surprising. Though this week is particularly warm and makes me glad we had that ductless A/C system installed...

@fintail, @tifighter or @murphydog can better tell you what it's been like historically, but that has been my experience for the most part since moving up here.

kyfdx

stickguy said:

Crazy mark up on that. Parts basically the same, labor probably too, how can Acura dealer charge 1/2 the cost(actually more like 40%)?

I'd guess the BMW parts are more. 7 quarts of synthetic and the oil filter is $82. $63 labor, and you have a $145 total. But, only once every 15K miles.

Brake fluid change. $14 for fluid, $126 labor. $140 total

Micron Cabin Filter: $102 parts $50 labor. $152 total

The rest is shop supplies and tax.. $470

fintail

Fortunately, cars aren't as significant to the overall economy than the over-coddled and subsidized real estate juggernaut. Apples to oranges, in my eyes.

If anything, to me anyway, longer terms say more about the diminishing purchasing power and stability of the average buyer more than anything else. The gap is only growing.

Mr_Shiftright said:

It's true of many other "creative" derivatives being peddled right now. 2008, here we come? Hope not.

fintail

That reminds me, I got an amusing screamer flyer from a Lexus dealer (not the one in my town) in the mail yesterday. It was plastic coated, to resemble a credit card. It offered leases with gigantic initial payments (5K on an NX? Nope nope nope) and the 0% ES offer, I think it worked out to ~$160 per 10K financed.

andres3 said:

Toyota/Lexus' 0% financing program maxes out at 60 months. My Parents took advantage of it, and have a huge monthly payment, but were able to put zero down on the new ES300H.

Zero down creates such a huge monthly payment though! You have to keep reminding yourself you didn't pay for it before, so you pay for it monthly. I sort of did the same with the Audi TTS. Very expensive car, but I put about half down; normally a good thing, but took out a short low interest (1.49%) 42-month loan.

laurasdada

I took 60 month @1.84% on the Jag back in 2014. Figured interest rates would eventually rise and my conservative investments would surpass that %. Good guess, as always! I've got 17 payments left, thinking about paying it off. I put a "big" down payment in the form of trading in my XK so the principal was manageable on this loan.

Like everyone here, the first of each month is not my favorite day (mortgage/HOAs, child support, tuition...). I went from a paid off home to buying a condo later in life. The ex. just sold our house, for much more than she paid me to take full ownership. Yeah, saw that one coming. But, I'm a man in Massachusetts. So, I did about as well as could be expected.

qbrozen

kyfdx said:

stickguy said:

Crazy mark up on that. Parts basically the same, labor probably too, how can Acura dealer charge 1/2 the cost(actually more like 40%)?

I'd guess the BMW parts are more. 7 quarts of synthetic and the oil filter is $82. $63 labor, and you have a $145 total. But, only once every 15K miles.

Brake fluid change. $14 for fluid, $126 labor. $140 total

Micron Cabin Filter: $102 parts $50 labor. $152 total

The rest is shop supplies and tax.. $470

I was close on the brake fluid, but wow did I miss on the others.

xwesx

@kyfdx Sobering numbers, sir! /shudders

All this talk of child care, retirement, etc., gets one to thinking! But, before I start thinking "out loud," I should note on the 2018 Traverse: Nothing on the ground locally! Several Equinox in stock now (and dealer has "real" photos vs. stock photos to prove it), but nada on Traverse. My guess is another four weeks.

We definitely made some sacrifices when it came to income, etc., with the family. We don't have any family nearby (nearest family now is about 2,200 miles away!), nor are we the type of people to forge/maintain friendships that would allow for family substitution. We gave up on that years ago when all of our good friends left town (we like to joke that we drive them off, but are not so sure now how much of a joke that is....!).

For us, it made sense to raise our own kids and do one income. Things go well enough, and I still have a little fun with cars on occasion, but probably my biggest hurdle is my wife's irrational aversion to investments that she can't touch/hold. Any time I want to do anything, I feel like I'm in front of a firing squad, just hoping that the guy with the bullet has a misfire....

In some instances, I don't bother, and in others I just do it and figure I'll ask for forgiveness later. I was literally shocked last summer when I was able to get her to green light the Passat, but I hit the wall when I suggested another car (or two). If things don't work out as intended on the Q7, she'll probably be back to stonewalling me in the future. LOL

I do enjoy the game, though, and I feel pretty good about our situation given that our only long-term debt is the Q7, which is an investment vehicle. We are high risk in some areas, which adds some stress, but overall feels good. And, our kids get a lot of exposure to how life can be, instead of that typical American expectation about how it should be. My hope is that it will give them a solid grounding to be flexible about the ups and downs they'll face.

xwesx

Whoops! Didn't realize that was a wall of text... again. My apologies!

Some of the managing within means that I do is little stuff, such as auto maintenance. Example: That shockingly high $154 for a 3-series cabin air filter. $22 for the CAF in my Q7, about five minutes to install. Nearly broke a sweat!

$1,200 quoted to winterize the Q7 at a shop. I spent close to $500 on parts, including a fancy thermostat-controlled circulating block heater for $200. Several hours and a few curses later, and I was good to go.

$1,100 quoted to replace the brake pads on the Q7 at Kendall in Anchorage. $110 for brake pads, an hour of time, and done. 90% savings!

Lunch on work days? Since early 2010, I have oatmeal. Not the packaged kind, but just rolled oats and some flavor additions. About $0.15-$0.20 per meal, per day. It adds up!

roadburner

xwesx said:

Whoops! Didn't realize that was a wall of text... again. My apologies!

Some of the managing within means that I do is little stuff, such as auto maintenance. Example: That shockingly high $154 for a 3-series cabin air filter. $22 for the CAF in my Q7, about five minutes to install. Nearly broke a sweat!

$1,200 quoted to winterize the Q7 at a shop. I spent close to $500 on parts, including a fancy thermostat-controlled circulating block heater for $200. Several hours and a few curses later, and I was good to go.

$1,100 quoted to replace the brake pads on the Q7 at Kendall in Anchorage. $110 for brake pads, an hour of time, and done. 90% savings!

Lunch on work days? Since early 2010, I have oatmeal. Not the packaged kind, but just rolled oats and some flavor additions. About $0.15-$0.20 per meal, per day. It adds up!

Don't brag about that in the A Mechanic's Life - Tales From Under the Hood topic- you'll get taken to the woodshed post haste!!!

xwesx

roadburner said:

Don't brag about that in the A Mechanic's Life - Tales From Under the Hood topic- you'll get taken to the woodshed post haste!!!

LOL I've learned to keep a relatively low profile there!

And, I'm not saying that any of these places are over-charging for the service. Not at all.

stickguy

except for on my s40, dealer prices to replace a cabin air filter have to be the biggest rip off going.

fintail

I replaced the cabin filter in my mom's Camry when I visited her a couple weeks ago. Not sure how old it was, but it was dirty and had junk in it. I think it cost about $17, and took under 5 minutes to change.