Project Cars--You Get to Vote on "Hold 'em or Fold 'em"

fintail

You can get a clean running driving car for that money, but the miles will be up there, and it will be a boring color. That blue car has ~15K miles on it. I bet even here, you could find a buyer for 35K without issue. Just not the 50K+ they want for it.

Mr_Shiftright said:

You should be able to buy that kinda rare 500E here in the U.S. for $15K-$20K in very nice shape.

fintail

Frankencar, no thanks, especially at that price. Steering wheels is out of a late 90s model, which also makes me a little leery.

Another velour car, and amazing looking - with a 1980 registration, the final run of W116, and it looks brand new. Wackadoodle price though.

qbrozen said:

Here you go. Low mileage v8 wagon. A mere $44k.
http://www.goo-net-exchange.com/usedcars/MERCEDES_BENZ/MEDIUM_CLASS/700900002420130719005/index.html

stickguy

I like the Alfa too. Odd shifter though. Might need instructions on that one.

qbrozen

stickguy said:

I like the Alfa too. Odd shifter though. Might need instructions on that one.

Is the +/- stumping you? Haha ;b

ab348

Goofy shifters are becoming an epidemic. It isn't broke, auto makers, stop trying to fix it.

Mr_Shiftright

fintail said:

You can get a clean running driving car for that money, but the miles will be up there, and it will be a boring color. That blue car has ~15K miles on it. I bet even here, you could find a buyer for 35K without issue. Just not the 50K+ they want for it.

Mr_Shiftright said:

You should be able to buy that kinda rare 500E here in the U.S. for $15K-$20K in very nice shape.

Auction median price for that car is $20K, so 35 for a low mileage one seems doable. In collector car circles, it isn't regarded as particularly "hot" right now--sort of a curiosity, but with few cars and few buyers, you get a balanced supply and demand equation, with not a lot of ups or downs.

fintail

Yep, from my anecdotal observations, values for average cars have been stable for the past 10-15 years. Super low mileage cars and Euro "limited" cars bring more, but they are scarce.

I think this is the bottom of the depreciation curve for these cars, and as Xers start entering the hobby and speculation market for cars that were hot when they were younger, there will be upward pressure for the best cars. If I had money, space, and really pined for one, I'd be looking now.

Mr_Shiftright said:

Auction median price for that car is $20K, so 35 for a low mileage one seems doable. In collector car circles, it isn't regarded as particularly "hot" right now--sort of a curiosity, but with few cars and few buyers, you get a balanced supply and demand equation, with not a lot of ups or downs.

Mr_Shiftright

It's such a low profile car, and you're paying a lot extra for something that no one has a clue about regarding its rarity or history.

fintail

Car people know. Production was low enough, and really nice survivors (I have seen more than a couple high mileage examples) are getting scarce enough, that at the very least, there's little risk of further depreciation.

Mr_Shiftright

Hmmm....debatable. I'm a car person and I don't know anything about it. I bet if you parked it at a show nobody would even look at it beyond noticing that it was a 90s Benz sedan in good shape. If you're thinking this one is going to reach 300 6.3 heights, I'd bet against you. If you said 190E 2.3 Cosworth, we're on the same page then.

fintail

But you aren't a car person who came of age in the late 80s and early 90s. There might be a generation gap at play here. Some cars of that era are just starting to come into their own. Could this be another? Maybe not like a supercar, but I'll wager values won't be any lower.

Just remember where 190SLs and W113s and even late run W111 coupes/cabrios were a mere 20 years ago. They might not triple like those cars, but they aren't getting any cheaper either. /They will probably outperform any sedan of the era.

Mr_Shiftright

yeah but you're comparing a sexy roadster to a 90s W 124 that is only identifiable by what's on the trunk lid and by some very very subtle body modifications. I suspect that everyone who wants a 500E has one--hence the stability in value. It's a good performer, though, for a big car, so there is that at least.

You know the old saying about rarity: "It has to be rare.....AND....someone has to care".

Mr_Shiftright

THIS should be illegal:

https://sfbay.craigslist.org/nby/cto/d/1974-cadillac-coup-deville/6438923915.html

fintail

Sexy ? For years 190SLs and 113s were derided as being too delicate and feminine. But then a rich middle aged demographic discovered them, and the rest is history. Same for the 111 coupes and cabrios. They were always somewhat expensive, but lately, boom!

I've noticed at least a minor upward creep in 6.9 prices lately too, at least for genuinely mint cars. I can see the same happening for the best 500Es, as it will be an expensive car to get right if it has been neglected. You don't want one as a project car, I can't imagine the cost of an engine rebuild.

Nice brocade interior in the Caddy. Imagine going 65 on the interstate in that thing and having to make an evasive maneuver.

Mr_Shiftright

I think some owners don't realize that the larger the wheel, the more power you lose and the greater your braking distance increases. Add all that to a '74 CdeV and...can you say "death trap"?

The relationship between the 6.9 and the 500E is odd---there are 7 times more 6.9s, and yet they are worth 2X as much as the 500E. But I think the 6.9 is played out and will stagnate, and probably even decrease in value, while the 500E has some potential to move ahead somewhat in collectibility in the future. I'd predict they will switch value levels in 5 years or so.

fintail

I imagine a substantial amount of engineering needs to take place to make Conestoga wagon wheels work properly on a car. I doubt many that wear them have the proper reinforcement.

6.9s have such money pit potential that I am surprised they are as high as they are - but really mint ones bring good money these days, they don't seem terribly far behind 6.3s. I don't know if the latter has much depreciation potential (for truly good cars, many project car hell cases out there), but I have to imagine a much smaller club wants a 6.9. Personally, I'd only want one if I was wildly wealthy and trying to assemble a MB collection. As a normal person, I have other things to take my money.

I wasn't thinking a normal 500E would be worth 6 figures, but I think there is some appreciation room for really nice cars.

qbrozen

fintail said:

But you aren't a car person who came of age in the late 80s and early 90s. There might be a generation gap at play here. 

But I am such a person. My bedroom wall never had a Benz sedan hanging on it, nor did I ever build or buy such a model. The market you are fond of is a very small one. There is nothing wrong with that. It just is what it is. 3-box designs usually bring up the rear in any car gathering.

fintail

Of course. It's not a supercar, it wasn't 200K new and now worth 500K. It wasn't made to appeal to kids, but they were known to people reading the rags back in the day, and of course to brand enthusiasts.

But it is a car that might bring 40K for a really exceptional example now, and in 10 years, that could increase by 50%. They won't get any cheaper.

qbrozen said:

But I am such a person. My bedroom wall never had a Benz sedan hanging on it, nor did I ever build or buy such a model. The market you are fond of is a very small one. There is nothing wrong with that. It just is what it is. 3-box designs usually bring up the rear in any car gathering.

omarman

Wow this is reading like the 'famous last words' thread:
Might bring $$K!
Won't get any cheaper!
Could increase by 50%!

And then the market speaks about...stocks, real estate, used cars, etc.

fintail

If that was the case, these would be 5K used cars already. They aren't.

In Europe, the market is already a little ahead for the best cars

Most cars are over 25K Euro, and the best ones are much more

None in that same light blue, but this is nice too - mind the mileage

Mr_Shiftright

fintail said:

Of course. It's not a supercar, it wasn't 200K new and now worth 500K. It wasn't made to appeal to kids, but they were known to people reading the rags back in the day, and of course to brand enthusiasts.

But it is a car that might bring 40K for a really exceptional example now, and in 10 years, that could increase by 50%. They won't get any cheaper.

qbrozen said:

But I am such a person. My bedroom wall never had a Benz sedan hanging on it, nor did I ever build or buy such a model. The market you are fond of is a very small one. There is nothing wrong with that. It just is what it is. 3-box designs usually bring up the rear in any car gathering.

Don't be too sure about "classic" cars not getting any cheaper. The toy market is just as volatile as bitcoin, or tulips. It is entirely possible that the world will wake up in the near future and say: "Old Ferraris? We don't want any old Ferraris!" There is no substantial "new generation" of car collectors out there. Car clubs are wilting left and right.

Part of the problem is that so many new cars are really fabulous machines. Old muscle cars have been de-fanged. That's why so many are now being modded, to become more ferocious.

fintail

Where was anything said about "classic" cars not getting cheaper? Anyone should know ordinary 1920s-40s cars have been on a slow downward trend for some time, as their fans have been going to the great car show in the sky. Ordinary postwar-50s cars are doing it too. Next up, fancier 50s stuff, and boomer-favored muscle - but barring wholesale economic collapse, that might take another couple decades.

It's also possible that civilization will end via a meteor tomorrow, but chances are, it won't, just as chances are vintage Ferraris will continue to be the domain of the 1%. Traditional car clubs may not be a growing trend in this new world where trickle down hasn't worked, and people simply lack the disposable time and income, but there is still a movement out there, even among younger people. They just might not do it like their dads and granddads.

I did say the 500E/E500 won't be cheaper than now, and unless there's some kind of upheaval, I'll stand by that.

Mr_Shiftright said:

Don't be too sure about "classic" cars not getting any cheaper. The toy market is just as volatile as bitcoin, or tulips. It is entirely possible that the world will wake up in the near future and say: "Old Ferraris? We don't want any old Ferraris!" There is no substantial "new generation" of car collectors out there. Car clubs are wilting left and right.

Part of the problem is that so many new cars are really fabulous machines. Old muscle cars have been de-fanged. That's why so many are now being modded, to become more ferocious.

qbrozen

Hopefully, classic cars will remain relevant, if only from a beauty standpoint. Rolling art.

Mr_Shiftright

The collector car market is very rational right now and it favors buyers more than sellers. So unless your "classic" is priced exactly right it's going to stay in your garage. Speculators are getting beat up at the moment. (and a cheer goes up among the true enthusiasts!)

If you factor in the inflation rate, 80s and 90s 3-box sedans aren't appreciating at all. If you like those types of cars, it would be best to buy them. enjoy them and use them up. They aren't good investments and you'll probably lose money on them over time.

fintail

I don't know how rational it is with 6-figure 190SLs and W113s everywhere, and 3.5 cabrios shooting past a quarter mil - not to mention where Porsches have gone. But it probably is rational for most common 50s-70s cars, domestics especially, and older cars that are reacting to changing demographics.

We can't even get a realistic definition of an inflation rate - it never really includes significant cost of living items like housing, medical, etc. I wish nothing but headache for those buying cars as investments.

Mr_Shiftright

Well "rational" in the market sense, not in the psychological sense. People are shopping rationally, looking at market trends, buying only good quality, not getting into bidding frenzies, passing over junk or ??? cars, and walking away from anything overpriced.

We can't just look at one car sale and call it a market. Overall 190SLs have taken a huge hit since mid-year 2015.

Also consider rarity. There were over 25,000 of the 190SL made, but only about 1,200 of the 3.5 cabriolets.

The 3.5 market trend is interesting. The very best of the best examples are trending up, as you say, but the "local show" or "average" cars are flat, flat, flat, and the needier cars are trending down.

Now that is "rational" if we think about it, as is the 190SL downtrend. In the one case, the 3. 5 is so expensive to restore that a rational buyer will not buy a needy one anymore. In the case of the 190SL, the supply and demand equation has been equalized. Everyone who wanted one, now has one, and the surplus cars are floundering.

fintail

190SLs have stagnated in the short term, but have exploded in the mid-long term. Same for 280SLs. These were fairly affordable toys 20 years ago, and are now the purview of a much wealthier customer. When nice examples of these cars are 30K again, let me know. Of course, one still would have been better off with numerous other investments, but have fun taking a suitcase of gold ingots or stock certificates out for a Sunday drive

3.5 cars had low production, but virtually 100% survival rate, and I would wager that nearly all of them are fairly pristine - a beater 3.5 is a rare car indeed. It has spread to other cars too - even 6cyl 280SE cabrios have jumped.

Mr_Shiftright

Well if you bought that pristine 190SL in 2015, you have just lost $100K on it as of today. That's not chump change. If it could lose 40% of it's value in 2 years, why not 80%?

Remember the "blazing hot" real estate market.......until 2008. And few predicted such a plunge.

The ultra-rich may always have their Ferrari 250 GTOs, but the collector car market is supported in the main by the middle class. So if a "rising tide lifts all boats", so too a tsunami will beach them all.

fintail

And if you bought a nice 190SL or 280SL in 1997, you might have quadrupled your money, not bad for something that is an obsolete machine. Probably tripled it with a 3.5 cabrio, too. Is it really a 40% plunge? Hagerty shows more like a 20% drop from the peak, but still up more than 100% from even 10 years ago.

Many predicted the fall of the housing market, those who saw 50K household incomes with 500K mortgages. Not sure if it is the same, as subprime borrowers aren't financing 150K 60 year old MBs.

Downward pressure on the middle class since trickle-down hasn't killed the hobby, I think things will have to get a bit worse for those problems. If it does happen, there will be other things to worry about.

Mr_Shiftright

Not if you calculate storage, insurance, repairs and restoration costs.

I'll give you a case in point. Client bought a Porsche 930 turbo a few decades ago. Maybe paid $20K. Now worth $80K. Big Profit? Not so fast.

Rebuilt engine $25,000. 20 years insurance $6,000. Maintenance and repairs $16,000. Bare metal re-spray paint, $15,000.

He made a little money and drove it a few thousand miles. Good investment? Not at all.

And if you take the "long term look", even real estate is not a good investment compared to other possibilities.

So it's all relative, as to what a good investment is, or even what a 'profit" is.

Everyone's a genius in a bull market.

fintail

One can live with a lot of that as simple carrying cost. One assumes someone who has such funds already has storage. Rebuilt engine is probably an outlier on the MBs in question, along with restoration work - as always, the key is buying something pre-restored. Real estate is more subjective and specific than even cars. I know neighborhoods here where a 250K house 25 years ago can easily be 2MM+++ now. If only the offshore money launderer set would get into old MBs

It can't really be ignored though, some of these cars that were 30K 20 years ago are closer to 100K now. Maybe paper investments fare better, but not many physical items fare as well.

ab348

Mr_Shiftright said:

Everyone's a genius in a bull market.

Based on my retirement mutual funds, that isn't true of my investment advisor.

isellhondas

Mr_Shiftright said:

THIS should be illegal:

https://sfbay.craigslist.org/nby/cto/d/1974-cadillac-coup-deville/6438923915.html

The odometer has "probably flipped"? Gee, ya think so?

I'm still laughing!

Mr_Shiftright

Somebody actually woke up one day and thought that was a good idea.

Mr_Shiftright

fintail said:

One can live with a lot of that as simple carrying cost. One assumes someone who has such funds already has storage. Rebuilt engine is probably an outlier on the MBs in question, along with restoration work - as always, the key is buying something pre-restored. Real estate is more subjective and specific than even cars. I know neighborhoods here where a 250K house 25 years ago can easily be 2MM+++ now. If only the offshore money launderer set would get into old MBs

It can't really be ignored though, some of these cars that were 30K 20 years ago are closer to 100K now. Maybe paper investments fare better, but not many physical items fare as well.

We only read about the victories. We don't see all the tragedies. (well, I do, at auctions).

It's the old "Gold Rush" story. The people who actually made the money were the ones who sold everybody pants, picks and shovels.

fintail

I wonder how many big losses are being seen on these specific cars though, as they are relatively uncommon, and I think usually attract stable affluent ownership.

In 20 years there might be a bloodbath when it comes to 60s muscle, and hot rods.

Mr_Shiftright said:

We only read about the victories. We don't see all the tragedies. (well, I do, at auctions).

It's the old "Gold Rush" story. The people who actually made the money were the ones who sold everybody pants, picks and shovels.

qbrozen

We probably missed my wife's chance. She loves the 230sl. Back in maybe '01 or '02, we saw one, I believe a '64, in the back lot of a dealer. It supposedly was a driver, although I never found out. I'd call it a #3-minus car, I guess. Solid enough but many cosmetic needs. IIRC, it was maybe $12k.

fintail

I know someone who bought a decent 250SL (repaint, but more than passable, good interior, no rust, etc) for about 15K back around 2003. Those cars were cheap at the turn of the century.

omarman

So this is what I'm doing on New Year's Eve...

Not a bad hobby car but are those '65 hubcaps on the rear?

Seller says paint color is custom, but didn't the factory offer a light bronze on the C4?

"If it was 4wd it would be 7500 bucks..." and sell faster in Columbus right now

"needs tires" true enough

Maybe the last (possibly) running Topaz in Ohio.

edit to add: "Possibly" running Topaz because that picture does NOT match my accu weather window view right now.

texases

That's a clean looking Corvair. They should have done what I did on my '65 Mustang: put the matching hubcaps on the same side of the car. Very few folks would remember the difference (the original caps had spinners, the replacements didn't).

isellhondas

omarman said:

So this is what I'm doing on New Year's Eve...

Not a bad hobby car but are those '65 hubcaps on the rear?

Seller says paint color is custom, but didn't the factory offer a light bronze on the C4?

"If it was 4wd it would be 7500 bucks..." and sell faster in Columbus right now

"needs tires" true enough

Maybe the last (possibly) running Topaz in Ohio.

edit to add: "Possibly" running Topaz because that picture does NOT match my accu weather window view right now.

The Corvair is interesting but "no leaks"? Must be the only one that doesn't leak oil!

The Jeep has never seen snow or salt? It's in Cleveland now and it'll see a LOT of things not seen in Arizona!

stickguy

I like Corvairs, but only the post-facelift 65+. And not 4 doors,

Jeep does look really clean for the age and miles. Not sure I have ever seen one of those that was not 4WD

ab348

stickguy said:

Jeep does look really clean for the age and miles. Not sure I have ever seen one of those that was not 4WD

Yeah, same here. I didn't know they came in 2WD.

For the age and mileage that one is very clean. Without 4WD not all that desirable though.

explorerx4

The Jeep does seem to have a blank where the 4wd shift would be.
Kind of reminds me that a coworker had a 2wd 4Runner. I called it the Faux Runner.

Mr_Shiftright

fintail said:

I know someone who bought a decent 250SL (repaint, but more than passable, good interior, no rust, etc) for about 15K back around 2003. Those cars were cheap at the turn of the century.

Well that's a good example of what I mean. In 2017, that $15K is the equivalent of about $21,000, due to inflation. So a mediocre 250SL today (worth far less than an 280SL) is worth perhaps $45,000 if you sold it, so in 2003 buying power that's about $27000. So your "investment" yielded a "profit" of $12K in actual buying power.

Then of course you had 15 years of maintenance, and it would be modest to say $800 a year for that. So that's $12,000.

So really, you "made" nothing but you hopefully had some pleasure out of it---which, IMO, is the whole point.

Mr_Shiftright

ab348 said:

stickguy said:

Jeep does look really clean for the age and miles. Not sure I have ever seen one of those that was not 4WD

Yeah, same here. I didn't know they came in 2WD.

For the age and mileage that one is very clean. Without 4WD not all that desirable though.

You could put 4 snows on it and I bet it would be capable enough for Cleveland.

fintail

That's the thing, what's the value of that pleasure? Probably a lot more than the maintenance. I wouldn't put money into the fintail if I didn't feel there was a ROI, even if not on paper.

A guy in the local MBCA group has a late 190SL he bought about 15 years ago. It is a very nice likely 2-2+ car. (it wins awards in the local club anyway) I think he said he paid around 35K for it. It's easily worth 3x that now - and he drives it to every event all over the place, and has no issues. He's done well both in monetary ROI, and in pleasure.

Mr_Shiftright said:

Well that's a good example of what I mean. In 2017, that $15K is the equivalent of about $21,000, due to inflation. So a mediocre 250SL today (worth far less than an 280SL) is worth perhaps $45,000 if you sold it, so in 2003 buying power that's about $27000. So your "investment" yielded a "profit" of $12K in actual buying power.

Then of course you had 15 years of maintenance, and it would be modest to say $800 a year for that. So that's $12,000.

So really, you "made" nothing but you hopefully had some pleasure out of it---which, IMO, is the whole point.

stickguy

still seems odd to me how many people get cool old cars, then never actually drive them. Seems kinda pointless.

Mr_Shiftright

fintail said:

That's the thing, what's the value of that pleasure? Probably a lot more than the maintenance. I wouldn't put money into the fintail if I didn't feel there was a ROI, even if not on paper.

A guy in the local MBCA group has a late 190SL he bought about 15 years ago. It is a very nice likely 2-2+ car. (it wins awards in the local club anyway) I think he said he paid around 35K for it. It's easily worth 3x that now - and he drives it to every event all over the place, and has no issues. He's done well both in monetary ROI, and in pleasure.

Mr_Shiftright said:

Well that's a good example of what I mean. In 2017, that $15K is the equivalent of about $21,000, due to inflation. So a mediocre 250SL today (worth far less than an 280SL) is worth perhaps $45,000 if you sold it, so in 2003 buying power that's about $27000. So your "investment" yielded a "profit" of $12K in actual buying power.

Then of course you had 15 years of maintenance, and it would be modest to say $800 a year for that. So that's $12,000.

So really, you "made" nothing but you hopefully had some pleasure out of it---which, IMO, is the whole point.

A 190SL with no issues? Lucky fellow there. Maybe he doesn't use it much? Prices in 2003 for those ran about $30K--$50K for decent, sound, attractive cars, so he bought it right. Not really that pleasant a car to drive. I think you'd like your fintail better.

Talk about a good buy in a classic car. I looked at a 1968 Porsche 911 "S" soft-window targa, still owned by the original owner! So he's sitting on close to $200K for that car...AND he drove it all the time---still does. It has lots of miles--but the engine has been rebuilt and the car has been painted and re-upholstered. He's 85, and not too scary behind the wheel.

fintail

He puts at a few thousand miles a year on it at least - many local road trips in it. Affluent retired guy has plenty of time and ability to maintain, but I haven't heard of catastrophic issues - it's a fixture at every meet. It is also a very photogenic car, a factory red car with wide whites. He did well. He has a lot of fun, and tripled his money. Not my dream car , probably slower than my 220SE.

MB salesman I bought from has a 72-73 911S, he bought it as a cosmetic restoration about 20 years ago, for I think around 15K. Car still looks fine and has no issues. I think he's fared well, too.

Were early targas shunned for a long time? High mileage doesn't really kill Porsche values, does it? Smart to hold on to something like that, from back in the day from when targas were just a little upmarket instead of 100K+ machines for the few.

Mr_Shiftright said:

A 190SL with no issues? Lucky fellow there. Maybe he doesn't use it much? Prices in 2003 for those ran about $30K--$50K for decent, sound, attractive cars, so he bought it right. Not really that pleasant a car to drive. I think you'd like your fintail better.

Talk about a good buy in a classic car. I looked at a 1968 Porsche 911 "S" soft-window targa, still owned by the original owner! So he's sitting on close to $200K for that car...AND he drove it all the time---still does. It has lots of miles--but the engine has been rebuilt and the car has been painted and re-upholstered. He's 85, and not too scary behind the wheel.