"The oil market looks a little too much like the late 90's stock market to me right now"
Add in real estate as well...
But on the oil/gas issue, Len I must disagree with your rosy scenarios. The probability that we'll see $2 a gallon is much much lower than that we'll see $4/gallon. This is the reality. Demand is simply going to go up, and as long there remains conflict in the middle east, a barrel of oil will remain high, maybe even go up beyond the $62-ish it is currently selling for. China is growing, demand here in the US has not waned, rather is going up.... more and more cars are being sold, many more people can afford 2, 3, 4 vehicles in their homes. Here in Cali, we have people with 4+ garages... The population is growing, the labor force is growing, and there is not enough incentives for fuel alternatives in the recently signed energy bill. So... our dependence on oil will continue in the foreseeable future, IMO.
The LS600H is the MY2008 release. This car should do the mid-30s in mpg. That would be plenty for a car churning out 375-ish HP and weighing over 5000Ib. That will be a solid vehicle, and should do well in the market... combining power, speed, fuel efficiency and luxury in one neat package.
We very much appreciate you providing some early information on the new LS. For those people in the market for such a car, it helps to know at least some details in advance. Some people may want to buy a car now, but can be persuaded to wait if they have a sense of what may be coming. We know that Lexus/Toyota normally does not provide too much early information, but since your competitors are coming out with some interesting new cars before the new LS, giving us an early look may keep some people waiting! Thanks!
If the LS600h gets 35mpg, I would definitely be inclined to wait until that is available instead of purchasing the LS460 next year. I realize that it will cost considerably more, but it will probably be worth it.
I agree about gas, people are fed up with it. I know I might be swayed by 1mpg next time. That's why hybrids are looking good, not to try and save a few bucks but to try and do our bit for oil imports, it all counts, if I have a little better fuel economy I can tell my friends about it.
I'm not so sure about that. I think your probably going to be looking at a $15K premium for the LS600 over the 460, maybe more. 35\2x vs. 22\2x just wont make up for that kind of cash. If you want the extra power, sure, thats the same reason to buy the RX400 over the 330. But if you're just looking for fuel savings, its not going to be worth it.
For me, the influencing factors would be the combination of a technological marvel, luxury, performance, environmental enhancements, and fuel economy (not necessarily in that order). My wife and I purchased the RX400h (for her) back in early May and we love it.
LG: Hybrids is not only about MPG.... Think about the overall impact on energy demand. Of course, we are a long ways off from energy independence, but here in So Cal, there is an organization promising energy independence by 2025. Now, if that were a target embarked upon by our government, won't that be a neat idea ? If buying hybrids or diesel lowers our dependence on foreign oil, would that not cut back price of oil and consequently gas prices at the pump ???
I understand that. If the 17 million new vehicles purchased in the US were suddenly all hybrids, the reduction of energy use.. at least the energy required to actually drive the vehicles, would be tremendous. However, just as with hydrogen, there's a dark side thats not really mentioned. 17 million hybrids means 17 million batteries, and a huge amount of energy required to create them, most likely from electricity produced by burning fossil fuels. The hybrids would be cleaner, but then you've got 17 million self-contained toxic waste dumps to deal with. How long will they actually last, and where do they go when they're all dead? The warranty might be for 100K miles, but are they still operating at 100% ability after that long, or like most batteries, do their storage abilities deteriorate with time? What is the effect going to be on resale values when a new battery costs $6,000+?
Additionally there are other issues, such as the fact that rescue crews risk electric shock or acid burns if they cut into a hybrid car to try and pull someone out. A lot of these things have to be dealt with if hybrid cars are going to become more than 1% of the total vehicle market.
"Ah I see. I figured Lexus would eventually start doing that, as its definitely a lot more cost effective than having to offer two different head units. I guess that means that the '04-'10 RX330 will probably be the last Lexus that is available screenless."
Actually, the 2006 IS are screenless, unless you opt for the Navi.
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Oh yeah, an $80,000 LS hybrid that gets 30 mpg might sound nice to your buddies at the country club, but spare me if you're going to say you got it to "help the environment" and "reduce our dependence" on foreign oil.
If you really want reduce our dependence on oil, there are cars that get better gas mileage and don't take nearly as much energy to manufacture.
All the cars with VDIM or NAVI will have the screen, if you don't get VDIM (or Navi)you wont have it. Since the IS350 has a VDIM system, it gets the screen standard.
Autospies has some nice pics of the LF-S concept at Pebble Beach. We'll just have to wait and see how far from the concept they stray. Looks promising though! ">
I have always dreamed of driving an LS 430, but can only afford a $25,000 car. When I discovered Ebay Motors and the many Lexi that they have for auction my dream finally became a possibility.
My question for everyone here, is based on your knowledge of LS 430,400 quality and reliability, what would be the oldest LS you would consider a quality car, also what milage?
For example on 8/28/05 a 2002 LS 430 with 82,000 (in excellent condition according to inspection report) sold for $27,100, a 7.79% discount over the Kelly Blue book value. Does this seem like a good deal, good idea?
If a 2002 can sell for 27K then a 2000-2001 would probably sell for $25,000.
Does anyone own a 2000-2001 LS? How reliable is it? I know that the LS series is called the most reliable car on earth according to JD Power. Thus I am working under the impression that a 5 year Lexus LS with under 100,000 miles, if properly maintained, is good for another 150,000-200,000 miles and thus, in my book, is practically new.
I believe the 2001 is where they made a big change. Might want to check this out. Also, at 90K miles Lexus recommends you replace the timing belt and some other work. This work can easilly run over $1000 and more. Check Edmunds maintenance recommendations to get an estimate. Another consideration would be where the car has been driven as far as road conditions. Good Luck.
A used LS is a great way to get a into the luxury car elite class without worrying if the car is going to bite you, like say, a 740i or S430 would. I currently drive an '01 with over 80K on it, and my car remains tight as a drum. There were no changes for the '02 models, so I would suggest an '01, which will get you lower miles and\or more equipment such as Nav and ML for the same money as an '02. The '00 is the LS400, and its worth getting the upgrade to LS430.
Also, 82,000 miles in 3 years is a lot of driving, so I would pay particular attention in those case to make sure the car was properly maintained, and yes, the 90K service would be coming up soon on a car like that.
There's some major service at 60K, but the 90K-100K period is where you have to be ready to hand a check for anywhere from $1000-2500 or so to the service department. What I would suggest is an '01, with more than 60K and less than 70K, which should get you past the 60K service and give you 25-30K miles before you have to worry about anything. Talk to a Lexus dealer and see if they can work out a deal on a CPO '01 LS. You will probably have to pay a bit extra up front, but that way you can be assured that the car your getting is in perfect condition, and it will carry a warranty until '07 and 100K total vehicle miles.
If not, then definitely have a mechanic check out the car before you buy anything. The LS is a luxury car, and even though its the most reliable one you can buy, maintainance on any luxury car is still expensive. You dont want to find out that your brand new baby needs $2000 worth of work done the day after you drive it off the lot.
For the record, my first LS was a '96 LS400. I traded it for my current '01 with 156K miles on the odo, no problems. When the '07 hits, it will be my third. I highly recommend the car.
I'm definitely giving it some thought. I dont have any interest in the XJ, S, 7, or A8, but I do want to see what move Infiniti makes before I buy anything.
With rising gas prices, I really don't want to hop into a GX470 and suffer the losses. I don't need the 4WD.
A Lexus people hauler, (preferably a minivan) would be perfect for me. My wife would like the creature comforts and prestige that comes with the Lexus badge and I'd like the nice and long warranty and excellent dealer service. (you can't get that on the Sienna XLE Limited)
The R-class and the upcoming BMW model are both AWD. If Lexus decides to do a model like that (which wont happen any time soon, their plate is already full for the near future) its a sure bet that it will have AWD and it definitely will not be a minivan.
I'm also not sure that a wagony-suv thing like the R-class at over 200" long is any more fuel efficient than a GX.
Mercedes has apparently decided to can 4-Matic for the S-Class. At least in the U.S., the S-Class will only be made with RWD.
That is just for the first model year as always. There is no way they aren't going to offer 4Matic on the new generation S450 and S500 at some point in the future.
This is quite a claim that the Lexus marketing people are making. So far it doesn't seem like the tight lipped people at Lexus have released any information that would validate that claim. What do you guys think they could possibly do with the car that would facilitate that kind of shock throughout the auto world that was felt when the original LS rolled off the line? Do you think that they have been quietly laughing at the iDrive and it's copycats while spending the last 10 years developing a completely different interface system that has not yet been seen in any car? Also, Bose has spent the last 25 years on research and development of a suspension system that uses high tech motors and sensors to alleviate nearly all pitch and roll in a car's ride. They have said that they are choosing only 1 car company to carry this technology at first, and much like Mark Levinson chose Lexus for their stereos, you might see Bose choose Lexus for its super-suspension. (I think it's quite telling that the only car that has been retro fitted with this suspension for demonstration purposes, is the lexus LS). Eagerly awaiting feedback on this topic.
Yes, I saw that same article and video of the current generation LS with the BOSE suspension. It's funny that ML and BOSE being competitors in the home audio market ( with ML totally in a higher echilon of audio standards ... and price... you can't really compare them I guess ) in a way, and more so in the car audio market ( with ML beating them again ), that they turned to a different direction to contribute to the greatest car on the planet :P
Well, bose has been developing the technology since 1980, but it stands to reason that something THAT special would have to be in the new LS to substantiate the claim 1989 all over again. Also, it's worth noting comments that denny clements made a year or so back about customization and personalization in the cabin of the car.... it could be that the standard guages and displays have been completely replaced by computer screens that REALLY allow you to choose exactly what and how you want all your information displayed. I'm positively excited at the amazing possibilities that are in store for this car...but lexus has to be warned, anything short of 1989 all over again, will be such a huge letdown that lexus might lose it's edge in the marketplace it's arguably dominated for so long.
I'm not worried. Lexus knows full well the threat of a completely fresh and re-invigorated Mercedes S class. Plus, the LS is still the Lexus car. It may not sell like the ES and RX, but it stands for everything Lexus has built since '89 as a brand much more than the volume cars. Also, now that they are free to move much further up market than they have ever gone before, I think the next LS is going to be a pretty radical step forward. As good as the LS430 is when it tops at $70K, imagine what they can do when they have $80 or 90K to play with.
To add to lexusguy's excellent points, what we can surmise are in store for the MY2007 LS will include a 7- or 8-speed tranny (go figure !), a much more radical exterior style, a possible SWB/LWB combo, and a hybrid (later, maybe MY2008 release). The tranny choice remains debatable; a 7-speed or 8-speed !!! If 7-speed, then its a no-brainer, but if its an 8-speed, wow !!!! Improved handling with standard 18", optional 19" wheels, a true sport mode/suspension, even lower NVH and cd (as if these are not already low enough), and a state-of-the-art electronic gizmos.... The next LS promises to be indeed 1989 again....
1: Intelligent Active Suspension System (IASS) This technology was developed under the existing active suspension system currently employed by the Celsoir sedan. The system works through a central computer which would constantly monitor each suspension in the car. Whenever sedan turns into sharp corners, the central computer would issue commands to adjust each suspension appropriately to enhance the sedan’s cornering ability.
...sounds less radical than the Bose system. It could be that the Bose won't be ready in the right timeframe. I read an article somewhere that made it sound 3-5 years away.
Kevin, we would very much appreciate your input on this subject!
Marketing people was technically inaccurate, actually it was a statement by Denny Clements as reported by the Automotive News a while back. The context of it was this: when asked about the upcoming LS, Clements indicated that he was excited by that project more than any other, and that Lexus felt that the new LS would make the same kind of splash as the first generation did. Why do you ask?
The RX 330 ("Putting the World on notice, again!") was fairly accurate.
The GS ("The Next Phenomenon from Lexus") might be overstated
The Next IS is no 3 Series. Fast and pretty, a major step forward, but not of that ilk.
The Next LS will be a great one, as the three before it were. In many a Lexus brouchure, you will see "Exceeding customers expectations" mentioned.
I think it would be wise for Lexus marketing to not get into overpromising. The 1990 LS was a Nuclear warhead taking on Scud missiles! I wouldn't put that much pressure on my flagship, as great as it may be.
We may not get back to 1989, but we may go Back To The Future! :shades:
We may not get back to 1989, but we may go Back To The Future!
I do agree with everything you said until the last closing statement. "Back to the Future" ? I'd rather argue that the next LS should re-define what the future car should be (not the glitzy/ritzy Hollywood definitions you see in futuristic movies). Making Lexus job much easier are the not so outstanding releases from BMW, MB, Audi (if you love in-your-face grilles, which I don't). All Lexus needs to do is beat these crop in styling. Interior ergonomics, fit-and-finish, luxury appointments, reliability and customer service will all be top notch for Lexus anyway, so I am not too worried on those fronts. Just get the styling right, please....And no grossed-out futuristic alien-like styling either
Well, as mentioned earlier, I see a car that is more customizable (is that a word?), or even more driver-oriented. I think the interior will become more computer driven, but through the dashboard touch-screen, not a poor-man mouse. Even the guages you see on the dash may be enlarged or removed from view (for a time). Personalized colors of instruments, more voice activated controls, more intuitive safety features maybe part of this new LS expansion.
Being more fuel-efficient is en vogue now, and Lexus will take Hybrids to new and exciting heights.
If the LS looks HALF as good as the IS, it will take best-in-class honors over a solid A8, and weak 750/S550!
Let's face it. There aren't many warts on the car to fix now. More features, more efficient, more powerful, LWB, and a prettier face. Anything else is gravy.
That is my biggest complaint with lexus...The first car was right imo the second and third got heavier and heavier use of chrome, particularly the headlights....The Mercedes seems to be going in that direction, and the audi nose is a bit dramatic, and bmw has it`s rear..so all in all the cars alll seem to have something to complain against....Tony
I am considering buying a 2005 or 2006 LS430 even though I prefer a front-wheel or all wheel drive car. The problem is that I cannot find one of the latter that I like: the Acura RL is OK but not great, the Audi A8 is wonderful except that you cannot see out the back window, the 2005 Avalon is fine except that they messed up the accelerator and perhaps transmission, the ES 330 has the known transmission problem, etc. I wonder if I should wait for a 2007 LS 430 or the next model if there is any possibility that it will have all wheel drive. Is there any hint that such a vehicle is in the works? Thanks for your replies.
Whats wrong with the transmition in the Avalon and ES330? Have you considered the: GS300 AWD, the M35x, 530xi, A6, E-4matic, TL, G35x, Volvo S60 AWD, A4, X-type, or Passat 4motion?
Thanks for your reply. The ES 300 and 330 have a transmission hesitation problem that has been well documented on these forums. The new Avalon has a revised throttle and transmission system that, to me anyway, does not feel as direct or as secure as the models through 2004 (I have a 2003). I prefer a large car rather than those you mention, and I do not trust the reliability of Mercedes.
There is talk of an AWD LS460 but no one can verify or confirm this. Maybe you can pose this question to your local Lexus dealer and hear their response ? Otherwise its all guesswork for us here.
Well, the GS300 AWD, M35x, A6, and 530xi are all the same size as the Acura RL. You said the RL was "ok", did you mean it wasnt big enough? I believe the Ford 500 comes in an AWD version, and there's also its cousin the Volvo S80 AWD.
My dealer suggests that any new model would likely be introduced in the spring of whatever year, say 2006 or 2007 representing, respectively, model year 2007 or 2008.
I prefer large cars such as the Avalon (I have a 2003) or the LS430 or the Infiniti Q45 (I have a 1994). That is why I am shying away from the Acura RL and cars in its size class. And I prefer to stick with Japanese cars because of their reliability. So I will fix my Infiniti and wait, hoping that the LS460 (or whatever it is named) will have AWD.
It is conceivable that Infiniti's replacement for the Q that is supposed to hit for the '07 model year could also offer AWD. They've already shown how adaptable their AWD system is, so I don't really see any reason for them to not offer it unless they dont feel there will be enough demand.
Comments
Add in real estate as well...
But on the oil/gas issue, Len I must disagree with your rosy scenarios. The probability that we'll see $2 a gallon is much much lower than that we'll see $4/gallon. This is the reality. Demand is simply going to go up, and as long there remains conflict in the middle east, a barrel of oil will remain high, maybe even go up beyond the $62-ish it is currently selling for. China is growing, demand here in the US has not waned, rather is going up.... more and more cars are being sold, many more people can afford 2, 3, 4 vehicles in their homes. Here in Cali, we have people with 4+ garages... The population is growing, the labor force is growing, and there is not enough incentives for fuel alternatives in the recently signed energy bill. So... our dependence on oil will continue in the foreseeable future, IMO.
The LS600H is the MY2008 release. This car should do the mid-30s in mpg. That would be plenty for a car churning out 375-ish HP and weighing over 5000Ib. That will be a solid vehicle, and should do well in the market... combining power, speed, fuel efficiency and luxury in one neat package.
Additionally there are other issues, such as the fact that rescue crews risk electric shock or acid burns if they cut into a hybrid car to try and pull someone out. A lot of these things have to be dealt with if hybrid cars are going to become more than 1% of the total vehicle market.
Actually, the 2006 IS are screenless, unless you opt for the Navi.
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Oh yeah, an $80,000 LS hybrid that gets 30 mpg might sound nice to your buddies at the country club, but spare me if you're going to say you got it to "help the environment" and "reduce our dependence" on foreign oil.
If you really want reduce our dependence on oil, there are cars that get better gas mileage and don't take nearly as much energy to manufacture.
All the cars with VDIM or NAVI will have the screen, if you don't get VDIM (or Navi)you wont have it. Since the IS350 has a VDIM system, it gets the screen standard.
The GS would've been the one to make that move, if they were gonna go that route.
That is just a harbinger of things to come, as the Gs has some faint cues from this concept, but is not nearly that aggressive.
And that would p-off many of the LS faithful, who are not into something that sexy/sporty/aggressive.
I think we all should have learned by now these adjectives are not in the Lex-icon.
DrFill
When I discovered Ebay Motors and the many Lexi that they have for auction my dream finally became a possibility.
My question for everyone here, is based on your knowledge of LS 430,400 quality and reliability, what would be the oldest LS you would consider a quality car, also what milage?
For example on 8/28/05 a 2002 LS 430 with 82,000 (in excellent condition according to inspection report) sold for $27,100, a 7.79% discount over the Kelly Blue book value. Does this seem like a good deal, good idea?
If a 2002 can sell for 27K then a 2000-2001 would probably sell for $25,000.
Does anyone own a 2000-2001 LS? How reliable is it? I know that the LS series is called the most reliable car on earth according to JD Power. Thus I am working under the impression that a 5 year Lexus LS with under 100,000 miles, if properly maintained, is good for another 150,000-200,000 miles and thus, in my book, is practically new.
Any advice would be greatly appreciated.
Also, 82,000 miles in 3 years is a lot of driving, so I would pay particular attention in those case to make sure the car was properly maintained, and yes, the 90K service would be coming up soon on a car like that.
There's some major service at 60K, but the 90K-100K period is where you have to be ready to hand a check for anywhere from $1000-2500 or so to the service department. What I would suggest is an '01, with more than 60K and less than 70K, which should get you past the 60K service and give you 25-30K miles before you have to worry about anything. Talk to a Lexus dealer and see if they can work out a deal on a CPO '01 LS. You will probably have to pay a bit extra up front, but that way you can be assured that the car your getting is in perfect condition, and it will carry a warranty until '07 and 100K total vehicle miles.
If not, then definitely have a mechanic check out the car before you buy anything. The LS is a luxury car, and even though its the most reliable one you can buy, maintainance on any luxury car is still expensive. You dont want to find out that your brand new baby needs $2000 worth of work done the day after you drive it off the lot.
For the record, my first LS was a '96 LS400. I traded it for my current '01 with 156K miles on the odo, no problems. When the '07 hits, it will be my third. I highly recommend the car.
First time hearing you are interested in the '07 LS. Good for you.
With rising gas prices, I really don't want to hop into a GX470 and suffer the losses. I don't need the 4WD.
A Lexus people hauler, (preferably a minivan) would be perfect for me. My wife would like the creature comforts and prestige that comes with the Lexus badge and I'd like the nice and long warranty and excellent dealer service. (you can't get that on the Sienna XLE Limited)
I'm also not sure that a wagony-suv thing like the R-class at over 200" long is any more fuel efficient than a GX.
That is just for the first model year as always. There is no way they aren't going to offer 4Matic on the new generation S450 and S500 at some point in the future.
M
1: Intelligent Active Suspension System (IASS)
This technology was developed under the existing active suspension system currently employed by the Celsoir sedan. The system works through a central computer which would constantly monitor each suspension in the car. Whenever sedan turns into sharp corners, the central computer would issue commands to adjust each suspension appropriately to enhance the sedan’s cornering ability.
...sounds less radical than the Bose system. It could be that the Bose won't be ready in the right timeframe. I read an article somewhere that made it sound 3-5 years away.
Kevin, we would very much appreciate your input on this subject!
What statement by Lexus Marketing are you referring to?
The GS ("The Next Phenomenon from Lexus") might be overstated
The Next IS is no 3 Series. Fast and pretty, a major step forward, but not of that ilk.
The Next LS will be a great one, as the three before it were. In many a Lexus brouchure, you will see "Exceeding customers expectations" mentioned.
I think it would be wise for Lexus marketing to not get into overpromising. The 1990 LS was a Nuclear warhead taking on Scud missiles! I wouldn't put that much pressure on my flagship, as great as it may be.
We may not get back to 1989, but we may go Back To The Future! :shades:
DrFill
I do agree with everything you said until the last closing statement. "Back to the Future" ? I'd rather argue that the next LS should re-define what the future car should be (not the glitzy/ritzy Hollywood definitions you see in futuristic movies). Making Lexus job much easier are the not so outstanding releases from BMW, MB, Audi (if you love in-your-face grilles, which I don't). All Lexus needs to do is beat these crop in styling. Interior ergonomics, fit-and-finish, luxury appointments, reliability and customer service will all be top notch for Lexus anyway, so I am not too worried on those fronts. Just get the styling right, please....And no grossed-out futuristic alien-like styling either
Being more fuel-efficient is en vogue now, and Lexus will take Hybrids to new and exciting heights.
If the LS looks HALF as good as the IS, it will take best-in-class honors over a solid A8, and weak 750/S550!
Let's face it. There aren't many warts on the car to fix now. More features, more efficient, more powerful, LWB, and a prettier face. Anything else is gravy.
DrFill
Good post, as always....