The Future Of The Manual Transmission

vcheng

... every drivetrain combination that a manufacturer makes for the US market must be EPA certified. Some manufacturers will get only their automatic combinations certified for the US market, while offerring other combinations overseas.

bumpy

My question is, does anyone know if it's possible to use a manufacturers overseas purchasing program to purchase vehicle models with manual transmissions that are only offered as automatics in the US?

Nope, if it's not built to meet US regulations, it's monstrously expensive to privately import and certify. However, the existence of a manual version means you can buy the parts to convert a US-spec car from automatic to manual. The EPA and DOT don't care what you do with the drivetrain after it leaves the dealer's hands.

lilengineerboy

My question is, does anyone know if it's possible to use a manufacturers overseas purchasing program to purchase vehicle models with manual transmissions that are only offered as automatics in the US?

Nope, if it's not built to meet US regulations, it's monstrously expensive to privately import and certify. However, the existence of a manual version means you can buy the parts to convert a US-spec car from automatic to manual. The EPA and DOT don't care what you do with the drivetrain after it leaves the dealer's hands.

Unless you are in California or another smog checking state. This is what the EPA is checking for...MPG and pollution per mile.

andys120

that the new 911 Turbo equipped with a Tiptronic AT is faster (0-60)than it's Stick Shift counterpart.

Read all about it.

shipo

Who cares if the auto is faster? I surely don't. Why? It ain't as much fun and never will be.

Best Regards,
Shipo

nippononly

Ditto! :-)

bhill2

But the bottom line for drivers like me (and many others on this forum is right in the article: "This Tiptronic-equipped car is allegedly faster than one with the six-speed manual. But it puts such a hit on the overall experience that it’s far from worth it." The hit that an automatic (at least a torque converter type) is simply not acceptable to someone like me who loves the driving experience.

boaz47

Shouldn’t someone stomp their foot? Isn't a sticking out of the bottom lip required as you cross your arms over your chest and defiantly say, Phooey? Did you read the review of the New Ford Mustang 500 Man racer? The new transmission is, wait for it, a sequential six speed, straight up or straight down. Even the Smart you have mentioned before will have a clutchless manual transmission, whatever that is? While the Autoweek article is two to one against the new 911 with the Automatic even they are asking for the double clutch replacement? Of the three reviewers all three were asking for Porsche to hurry with the new transmission. Porsche must not be paying attention to this forum. I do hear, or should I say see shock in their words. Et,Tu Porche?

nippononly

Ah boaz, you're chiming in, wonderful! :-)

Don't get too complacent, or kid yourself that the new automated manuals will be more fun, even if they are 0.1 seconds faster.

Having the stick to row just isn't a choice, it's a mandate. :-)

lilengineerboy

I'm not buying an automatic anything at this point. Porsche or Yugo.

boaz47

But you had to know I would find it humorous. Not simply because Porsche is doing it. But because all three self rowers were calling for the new paddle shifter. It reminds me of something I read about Corvettes once. More of them are sold as automatics even if they are the American Sports car. And reading about the Mustang 500FR almost made me spit out my coffee. It will come with the sequencial transmission much like a Motorcycle. (do you remember when I said that would make perfect since to me?) It is in the latest Motor Trend. I had to tape my hands behind my back to stay out of this forum. Thank goodness I was dragged back. It is never been that people don't like manuals. It has always been what will we be offered? Much like you choking on the Maxima.

Lets ask a practical question, what will you do if they stop offering a dog leg in the whole group of small cars you favor? Saying it will never happen is not an answer.

jeffyscott

"It is never been that people don't like manuals. It has always been what will we be offered?"

Certainly, the majority of drivers do not like manuals. What will be offered is what is profitable. At some point, at least for most cars, so few people will want the manual that it will no longer be profitable to bother with.

boaz47

I hope you have teflon boots on. You just stepped into a can of worms. :surprise:

andys120

that one would stir up a hornets nest. :P

The truth is, I don't think a single person would buy a Tiptronic 911 Turbo because it's a tick faster 0-60 but it is significant that Porsche offers it on one of their highest performance cars.

I'll bet it'll be even quicker when the PDK version comes out.

boaz47

You are an evil man my friend. I have often dreamed about a transmission like the PDK. I have wanted to try a WRC style paddle shifter out on a rally road myself. But Alas they have never been offered in a car I could afford to drive like I stole it. The closest I have even come is a MR2. It was older and far from flawless but my heart could see the beauty of it. It reminds me of coming off of the infield turns at the old Riverside race track with my 750 and snicking gears at red line till I hit top gear. Still only a dream but getting closer I think.

cdnpinhead

When the Miata & various BMW's cease to be available anywhere with a manual, I'll give up.

Until then. . .

nippononly

I would say that if manuals completely stopped being offered, I would stop buying new cars and stick to used. But now I am older. :-P

Given that I would still need a car for commuting and whatnot (not totally a given, but pretty likely), I suppose I would find a decent automated manual, assuming that by then all the slushboxes would be gone in favor of sequential manuals and CVTs. But I sure wouldn't like it, and I would be sure to find one model with a stick that I really liked, and commit to preserving it for the remainder of my driving life, so that I could still have fun in a car on weekends. :-(

boaz47

Reasonable explanation. I will admit that I don't think about driving as much as I once did. My hope now is to see a reasonably priced Sequencial shifter in a Mazda3 sized car. Something exciting and quick to respond but I don't know how long that might take. I would settle for something that had no fully automatic option even if I doubt that any new sequencial will be so equipped. I gather the one in the Mustang 500 has to be manually shifted. But the one that they have planned for cars like the 911 might be the best of both worlds. for those that just need the feel of doing something they could shift. If your wife wanted to drive and didn't want to shift that option is there as well.

In all honesty nippon what is wrong with that picture? how could even you not love the Idea of driving a WRC type of car? Can't you imagine a car almost shifting as fast as you will it to shift? The old dog leg is like a favorite old chair. Comfortable yes but not ever going to be able to add heat or vibration. They have gone as far as they can with a dog leg and race cars have started dropping them for something different. I would like to try that something someday to see what it is like to drive state of the art. I am not sure that will ever come to pass but for me it is something to look forward to. Truthfully I wouldn't care if they never stopped making the dog leg for those who feel some connection with the tried and true. I just want them to offer us a chance to drive what the real drivers drive. I felt the same way before I mastered the 12 speed in my KW. I felt the same way when I learned to shift without the clutch back then, and sometimes I do it even now just to show my wife I still can. The paddle shifter pulls at me like a magnate and I simply have to wait till they decide they can make one I can afford.

spiritinthesky

I have just turned 2,000 miles on the odometer of my 2007 911 Turbo 6-speed. You couldn't pry me out of the seat and into a Tiptronic with an industrial jackhammer. One poor soul who bought a Tiptronic from another dealership so his clutch-challenged wife could drive it had offered me $10,000 to swap out even up (and the Tip cost him an extra $3,400). He found no takers in me or at least 2-3 other 6-speed buyers. He's likely to end up in divorce court.

More to the point: I have been to two BMW performance driving schools (still own a 2003 M5) and have been to the Porsche plant and test track in Germany 3 times in the last 5 years. Forget what the "spokespeople" say to the press as part of a PR plan. There is not one BMW driving school instructor or Porsche racing team member that I have spoken with (total of at least 10) that would take an SMG, Tiptronic, or even the new Porsche DSG in their personal car. Not one.

For those attempting to argue the "objective" benefits, the concensus amoung the instructors and race team members is that paddle shifters in a street legal sports car are not - and will never be - a significant performance advantage. You'd be much better off checking the $7,000 box for ceramic brakes. A Formula 1 racecar has a coefficient of friction approaching 1.0. When you take your foot off the gas, it decellerates with more G's than slamming the brakes on your Honda Accord. It is capable of pulling 3.5 G's in tight corners. At 140 mph, the downdraft force is so great, that the car could be driven UPSIDE DOWN in a tunnel. This is why $40,000 10 millisecond DSG's used in Formula One racecars have an advantage over taking one hand off the wheel. And that advantage is still marginal - I'd stake $1 million that only a handful of Formula One racers using SMG's could consistently beat Shumacher "handicapped" with a manual transmission.

If you want to fantasize that you are Shumacher in your MR2 or Mazda3, or that you are a top fuel drag racer revving up to 3,000 rpms in a 911 Tiptronic before launching a 1/4 mile run, that's your perogative. But that's not what most of us would consider a rewarding driving experience in a real sports car. Buying a Tiptronic so you can have a spouse drive it is at least a more practical and sensible gesture. But, even that isn't guaranteed to work.

shipo

Now if that ain't a heart warming post then I don't know what is. Spiritinthesky, if you and I ever cross paths it would be my absolute honor to buy you a beer or whatever libation your heart desires. ;-)

Best Regards,
Shipo

boaz47

Maybe they are only marginal. But have you ever seen what happens when a paddle shifting car races a non paddle shifting car in WRC? These are race cars for sure but still not F-1, ALMS, and now cars like the Mustang 500fr. Sure a street car doesn't need a paddle shifter. It doesn't need a lot of things, it doesn't need low profile tires, a wing on the back or any of those things. But we get them and when offered we buy them. People are always looking for that something new. There has to be a reason more and more race cars are going to sequencial shifters. It is happening and once a class goes within a year or two "every" car in that class goes as well. Why do you suppose that is? why aren't any of the drivers willing to put their foot down and simply stay with the dog leg? I know many in here aren't interested in driving the state of the art sports car. Many wouldn't even consider driving a ALMS car at at a track at Road Atlanta or any other track. And that is fine. But the industry is moving in another direction and those of us that want to see what has driven every single WRC car to ditch the dog leg. When Corvettes and even Mustangs start putting sequencial shifters in their race cars "something" is happening in the technical world. Think about how old tech a Mustang is in the world of Automotive technology. It all of these cars are switching, and in most cases ever car in every class that starts using them switches, there must be an advantage. we can have opinions all we want as to what is more manly or who is a true enthusiast but at the end of the day things are still changing. Not talking about it or not thinking it will happen or swearing not to change with the technology if perfectly within everyones opinion. But if people are winning races with these new transmissions sooner or later we will get these transmissions in our street cars, all the signs are there.

This debate sounds a lot like when they came out with ABS. I never liked the system because I learned how to drive and stop by modulating my brakes. I watched with interest as Can and Driver and Motor Trend did tests on the early Corvettes with the ABS turned on and with it turned off. I felt justified when the non ABS vettes stopped shorter in track conditions than the ABS cars. I was equally justified when insurance companies started dropping discounts on cars equipped with ABS because they hadn't seen a drop in read end accidents. But you know how hard it is to find a sporty car without ABS as standard. Now they are telling me they may mandate anti skid control by 2008 or 2009. My preferences and preferences of many other enthusiasts didn't seem to stop them from supplying ABS to so many cars. It sounds good and loyal to say they will pry the dog leg from under my cold dead foot. But real enthusiast enjoy driving too much to give up driving and start taking the Bus simply because their favorite car only comes with a transmission they don't like.

lilengineerboy

I fail to equate a safety system designed to stop a car in the shortest possible distance while still allowing the driver to maintain directional control with a slushbox designed to separate the driver from interacting with the vehicle.
If people want to be a passenger while they are driving, there are plenty of opportunities for them. If they feel they need to have an image car and be a passenger, apparently they can be accommodated there as well.
Keep in mind that the WRC car transmissions are so aggressive and harsh shifting that in a real world driving environment, they are unacceptable. Even in vehicles like the Ferrari, the transmission is brutally effective.

rayainsw

"It reminds me of something I read about Corvettes once. More of them are sold as automatics even if they are the American Sports car."

= = =

I happen to have recently purchased a 2007 Corvette Coupe – with automatic trans. – as most Coupe & Convertible buyers do still choose.

[ The Bowling Green Assembly Plant web site shows for 2006: 66.1% of Coupes and 72.9 % of Convertibles were built with the six speed automatic. Obviously, no Z06s were. ]

I truly do understand the often stated view that use of manual transmissions significantly enhances the ( sporting aspects of ) the driving experience. I used to share that view.

My current view is that automatic transmissions ( including, the DSG \ SMG \ PDK devices that are actually manual transmissions, with no torque converter ) have now reached the point where they are actually superior to manuals in some critical aspects. My last 4 Sport Sedans have had manumatics. And my current ‘ride’ has a very good one.

We are clearly a nation where the average age is rising – and with an older populace, typically comes an increase in disabilities that limit physical functioning.

And heavy traffic (where, for many, a manual is just work – no fun at all) is becoming ever more widespread.

I owned and drove nothing but manual trans. cars for many, many years. 3 on the column, 4-or-5-on the floor – even 4 on the tree ( \ column - a Peugeot – mid-1960s 404 model, I believe) and 4 speed with separate O/D (Volvo).

But I (and many others) have either physical reasons to require an automatic – and / or simply the desire not to have to deal with a clutch all the time. The current crop of manumatics offers an opportunity to significantly enhance the gear change aspect of driving a car when desired - with the option of simply popping it into full automatic mode when Hotlanta area traffic becomes more stop than go. In my case, severe bursitis plus traffic I cannot avoid means I will never buy another car with a clutch.

And that’s now just fine with me. In the case of my current Daily Driver, that 2007 Corvette Coupe with six speed automatic, one can also ‘lock’ the trans. in second gear. I have found this useful in some of the stop \ go \ stop \ slow traffic situations I often encounter on my commute home late afternoons. The torque converter cushions the on \ off transitions somewhat. There is some engine braking available. And second gear in this trans. allows 0 to approx. 86 MPH. Sufficient.

I did not select this option in expectation that the acceleration ( shifting ) would be any quicker than I could do with a manual trans. No ‘performance advantage’ anticipated. But since I have only driven one vehicle with a manual ( friend’s Jeep Wrangler ) in the past 10+ years, I am certain that this automatic shifts both more quickly and more consistently than I now could. And the paddle shift \ manumatic feature certainly allows me significant additional control ( involvement ) when I drive my car than is possible when in either of the ‘pure automatic’ modes.

With six gears and such a ( very ) wide ratio spread – and great steaming piles of torque at any RPM – I can certainly accelerate from any speed, in my choice of gears, at an ‘entertaining’ rate. Certainly as quickly as anyone needs to accelerate in the real world. I do not expect to drive my Corvette on any race track. I did buy it for the entertainment value it offers – and this automatic trans. allows me to enjoy driving a Corvette.

Some will forever maintain that a Corvette ( or any sports \ GT car ) equipped with any automatic trans. is heresy ( or worse ) and that is just fine with me. My $$s, my choice – and I am very, very happy with my choice!

Just my $0.01.5 worth = with a penny and a half ‘mail in rebate’ = FREE!

- Ray
Not a powertrain engineer & don’t even play one on TV. . .

bumpy

I get to looking and discover that the sole transmission on the 2nd-gen Smart fortwo is a... 5-speed SMG! I was going to buy one when they show up on this side of the Atlantic, but now I have to decide which is more important to me: a small car or a manual. :mad: (They could moot the issue for me by not bringing over the diesel. )

stickguy

I read that article last night. They absolutely hated what the AT did to the drving experience, although it did take off that .1 sec 0-60. And as we all know, that's the most common activity for most drivers!

But, they never said they wanted a dual-clutch tranny, just that hte AT needed to be scrapped in favor of one, so if you insist on having 2 pedals, it would be better than the tiptronic.

Still, car makers have to turn a profit, and if Porsche needs to offer an AT of some kind to pay the bills, no problem by me. As long as they still offer the 3 pedal manual, I could care less.

Kirstie_H

A new tv show seeks bad drivers who want to receive free, unique and, yes, televised, driver training. Please respond to jfallon@edmunds.com no later than December 15, 2006 with your city and state of residence and a few words about why you think you or your loved one will be a good fit for this opportunity.

qbrozen

nobody that would admit to it.

ray80

Even if they could use it

spiritinthesky

Shipo,

Thanks - and the feeling is mutual. I read these forums more than I post, and you often take the words out of my mouth as to what I would have written. In an era where cup holders and frivolous technology have run amok, it's refreshing to know that it hasn't corrupted everyone. May we both be pushing up daisies before we need a slushbox Lexus that parallel parks itself.

Spirit

spiritinthesky

"I know many in here aren't interested in driving the state of the art sports car."

I am. I do. I spent $7k on ceramic brakes, because when I take my 911 Turbo to the track, they offer a performance advantage. As do the standard 19" wheels and 30/35 series tires. I didn't get the $3.4k Tiptronic because it is a detriment. And that isn't just my opinion. The professional BMW instructors consistently get 2-3 second better lap times with the BMW M3 manual than they do with the SMG. At 1.0 +/- G's, complete control is more important than saving 20 milliseconds on an upshift (but giving it back on a downshift). At 3.5 g's, the equation changes, as does the entire vehicle.

As I said, if you want to drive an SMG, Tiptronic, DSG, that is certainly your perogative. But your exhaustive attempt to claim that those found in the best sports cars and sport sedans in the world - the 911 Turbo, Ferrari 430, BMW M3/M5 just to name a few I've owned or driven - offer a performance advantage is misguided. And if you can't absorb the difference between a street legal sports car and a Formula One racecar, I'm probably wasting my breath.

explorerx4

a friend of mine sold his m3 and is going to a 911(other than because it is what he has always wanted), because he didn't want the smg trans. he will be tracking it, just like the bimmer.
a finger flicker can't compare to the experience of a left foot and right hand working together to change a gear.

boaz47

Still, if the question is what is the future of the manual verses the future of other transmissions It simply doesn't look bright. It doesn't matter what I post or how connected we feel the top race cars are not going back to dog legs. The top race drivers are not going back to dog legs even if asked to put their money where their mouth is. So as more and more manuals get replace there are fewer and fewer manuals to be had by dog leg fans. More than 90 percent of the driving population are simply not interested in manuals. At least in the US and no one from the US will move to Europe simply to drive a manual. Nissan now has two models with no manual option to be had at any price? Why? Car and driver couldn't find a manual to test in every brand of compact for the november issue. The quote they use is, that they when they planned this article for fun with gear levers;"fetched up against cruel reality in Detroit. The domestics sell so few ,manual cars that we were unable to find test samples." That begs two questions. If it was hard for Can and driver to find manuals how hard is it for normal people? And why do they sell so few manuals? Now you can decide Car and Driver is anti manual if you like because they simply are pointing out reality and say you don't care what is happening in racing and in the industry. But that won't make manuals more popular or increase their percentages in the car driving public.

So tell me, will manuals make a comeback in the US? Is their future bright and rosy? Or will they be relegated to a niche market?

lilengineerboy

;"fetched up against cruel reality in Detroit. The domestics sell so few ,manual cars that we were unable to find test samples." That begs two questions. If it was hard for Can and driver to find manuals how hard is it for normal people?
I do think it will be a nitch market. I have yet to have too much trouble finding a target vehicle with a manual transmission. Of course, if its not available with a manual, it wouldn't be a target vehicle.

boaz47

Well, if you are willing to conceed niche status to the transmission as its future we can agree. And by making the statement about target vehicle you side step problems with cars like the Maxima. You simply narrow your target. And absolutely yes, to the one that posted about paying the bills. Maybe Porsche can continue to provide manuals because they sell automatics. I can accept that as well. It was interesting to read about the Smart not coming to America with a third pedal. Oh what a quandary for the small car advocate that was looking forward to that car but wanted a dog leg. I guess if it was a target vehicle you can always change targets.

lilengineerboy

Its not that bleak yet, I drove a Focus, Cobalt, Civic, Accord, Scion, Impreza, Legacy, G35, Mazda3&6, and BMW "dog legs" in the last two weekends. All were sedans.
Are there fewer manuals? Yes. Am I concerned I won't be able to find one? Not yet.
If you want my $$$, you make a stick. Thats how I get to vote.

black_tulip

If people want to be a passenger while they are driving, there are plenty of opportunities for them

I wish you would tell me about them. I have a long commute where no public transportation is available and even in my auto car, I have to pay full attention to the road. I would rather read some profound thoughts than to steer my car or to play with a stick. I guess I will have to wait for a while untill little engineer boy will build me such a vehicle.

boaz47

Many moons ago I lived in Riverside and had to commute to the LA area. I often wished that I could use one of the rail systems or even a bus to take the 1.5 hour drive every day. But in California the trains and busses tend to run so the operators can have the very same hours as the working people have. If I had to be at work at 6am it was simply out of the question. Still is a pain for those who would rather read or work on their lap top than sit in traffic for two hours.

lilengineerboy

Why would you live so far from work?

habitat1

I agree, I don't think you should wait for little engineer boy to build you a self directed car. You should consider getting a job closer to where you live or a house closer to where you work. Life is too short to spend 10+ hours a week in a frustrating commute. I know many people who thought close-in DC house prices were too high in the 1980's so they headed to the exurbs and spent the same amount for "twice as much house". Now they have a twice as long commute and a house that's worth half as much as the ones in the close in neighborhoods. Double whammy. Make that a triple whammy if you then feel compelled to buy a slushbox instead of a manual to make that commute more bearable.

nippononly

"But in California the trains and busses tend to run so the operators can have the very same hours as the working people have. If I had to be at work at 6am it was simply out of the question."

Well...in SOUTHERN California, anyway. In northern California, that isn't a problem at all. ;-)

boaz47

I had heard that some cities like the one you live in have a much better system. But when I was working for Xerox even if I could take the bus or train I would have to walk at least five blocks from the nearest park and ride. can you imagine walking five blocks in Compton, when it was still dark or as it was getting dark? No thank you. There are exactly two cities I might consider moving close to if I had to work in them. San Diego and San Francisco. I would find it most prudent to move to the burbs for just about any other city in the US. I have been to Miami, New York,Seattle, Portland, Chicago, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Cleveland, Minianappolas, Salt Lake City, Houston and Dallas. Live close to the city, not on your life.

habitat1

"Live close to the city, not on your life."

For someone that likes to extrapolate the death of the manual transmission, you are bucking at least as big of a redevelopment trend and demographic shift towards "new urbanism".

I could generalize from my own experience that "we" all want to be able to walk to shops, restaurants, Starbucks and Whole Foods. "People" like to be able to walk out of their front door around the corner and onto brick paved sidewalks along tree-lined streets with gas streetlamps. And get to a myriad of museums, theatres, the Kennedy Center and Georgetown via clean public transportation, a bike or sneakers. With a 2,000 acre Rock Creek Park or the C&O Canal a 5 minute walk out their back door.

New Urbanism IS the trend for young college graduates and empty nesters. Even families. On my little block in DC, there were only 2 kids in 24 single family homes when I bought as a single guy in 1988. Today, there are 35 kids and at least 3 more coming. We went through 10 bags of Reese's Cups passing out Halloween treats. I had to turn out the lights at 8:00 p.m.. "The Rise of the Creative Class" suggests that sprawling suburbs are becoming a much less desireable place to live than my "dog leg" 6-speed is to drive. But with 300 million people living in America and about 150+ million of them driving daily, chances are that the choice of living "out there" and driving a 3-pedel 6-speed will be around for a long, long time. Just watch out for those "greenies" - rumor has it that they will be proposing a greenhouse gas tax on anyone that commutes more than 10 miles or 30 minutes each way.

boaz47

yes, greenies can be a problem politically. But still tell me about the future of manuals? If 90 percent of the new home buyers in America were leaving the burbs and heading to the city what would you say the future of the burbs would be? If 90 percent of the populace were buying tape recorders rather than record players what would happen? If 90 percent of the new cars came equipped with a CD player rather than a Tape deck what would be the future of tapes for your car? People still buy cameras with 35mm film. What is the future of 35mm film? I still have a AE-1 but I can't remember when I last bought film for it. I can remember when I got a new memory chip for my Digital HP Camera.

What is the future of manuals is the question? Do they have a bright future and will they make a comeback like city living? Will real top class race cars go back to manuals? will they knock the other transmissions off of their 90 percent or better shelf? What effect with the Greenies have on manuals? How will hybrids impact that percentage of the market? Looking at all these questions I would say the chances of some form on Automatic transmission becoming the standard for all cars is far greater than the chances that the manual will make a comeback like city living may.
Tell us what you think will be the technological salvation of manuals?

lilengineerboy

What is the future of manuals?
Will continue to be available

Do they have a bright future and will they make a comeback like city living?
Other people's lifestyle choices don't overly concern me, if they want to spend 4 hrs/day in a boring car because they need a "mcmansion" in the 'burbs, have at it.

Will real top class race cars go back to manuals?
Professional racers are being paid to do a job, not enjoy it. If you were paying me fat grips of money I would even be willing to drive a old school pushrod V8 and turn left all day. What is more interesting is I bet most of them have a conventional manual transmission for their personal vehicles.

will they knock the other transmissions off of their 90 percent or better shelf?
Just because I am enlightened doesn't mean I expect everyone to be :P

What effect with the Greenies have on manuals? How will hybrids impact that percentage of the market?
If it doesn't come with a manual, it isn't part of my market.

Tell us what you think will be the technological salvation of manuals?

boaz47

You could have saved a lot of letters by simply saying you don't care what happens or is happening. I can honor you saying that without a manual your aren't interested in driving. So if they ever do stop offering them or they mandate hybrids or EV you simply won't drive. If that is the case I wonder how many others will be taking the bus or sitting home? And while I have been trying to explain why I don't feel the manuals future is bright I don't recall how anyone else has explained to me or anyone how they will recover from being a niche transmission? Is their future to be frozen into a minority experience?

lilengineerboy

I don't see the manual transmission overtaking the US auto market. That would be like everyone using a Mac instead of a PC (maybe they enjoy viruses, I don't know). I don't think it has to take over the world to be considered successful.
I don't exactly see it as a niche either, as many small and mid-sized vehicles are easy to find both new and used with a manual transmission. I don't understand what you mean when you say it needs to "recover?" Do you mean that we should force people to drive a manual transmission?
I guess I am not seeing the problem.

jeffyscott

Somwhere around 10% of all cars sold in the US today are automatics. What do you think that figure is more likely to be in 2010...7% or 13%? The direction is certainly going to be downward.

Furthermore, how many of the 10% buying manuals are only taking them because of price?

Even for your niche vehicles like Porshe, what is the direction? Are they selling more manuals or fewer each year?

At some point it become more expensive to supply manual transmissions than just having automatic standard? There are a few cars already where there is no savings by taking a manual transmission. I imagine there will someday be an extra cost to buy a manual transmission in the few remaining cars that will still be offering them. The manual will become a product that is purchased only for recreational reasons. Of course, there will also be used cars with manuals available in a wide variety of models for a long time.

Now I am going to go shop for a typewriter, a turntable, and a Beta VCR...oh, and maybe I'll look for an 8 track tape player while I am at it . I can still buy a new turntable, but for the other items, I think I will have to settle for used. These products are a little further along the same path that I think the manual transmission is on.

lilengineerboy

I think you underestimate the value of recreation.

habitat1

Read slowly and repeat after me: an automatic transmission is not a "technological advancement" for many people in the "enthusiast" camp that want to have full control and the enjoyment of driving a manual transmissioned sport sedan or street legal sports car.

Boaz47, you in particlular are hell-bent on claiming that a slushbox automatic or a semi-slushbox tiptronic/SMG is to a manual transmission as a CD is an 8-track or a digital camara is to a film camara. I think an automatic should be grouped in with polyester fabrics and vinyl sided houses. Both of which could be claimed as more technologically advanced than their "natural" counterparts. But neither of which I will ever buy, in spite of their mass appeal.

So you look at an automatic or SMG and see digital, while I see polyester. Very nice polyester in the case of a Ferrari 430, but still not the real thing. If you think I'm part of a dying demographic group, you might be surprised at how many of our "urban" friends would line up to drive my dog leg 6-speed 911S over another friend's automatic SL600.

On a side note, I find it a sad commentary on the state of our culture when I turn on the nightly news and see stories of people camping out 3-days to get a $600 Sony Playstation 3 for their kids for Christmas. Fortunately there are still $15 basketballs on the shelves for parents like me that want to play "real" sports with their kids rather than become a virtual couch potato.

lilengineerboy

on a side note, I find it a sad commentary on the state of our culture when I turn on the nightly news and see stories of people camping out 3-days to get a $600 Sony Playstation 3 for their kids for Christmas. Fortunately there are still $15 basketballs on the shelves for parents like me that want to play "real" sports with their kids rather than become a virtual couch potato.

Maybe if they didn't have that 3hr commute the would have time to play real sports with their kids...