The Future Of The Manual Transmission

nippononly

one day, inside the 50-year window I'm sure, all street cars will be electrically propelled. This will happen by the advancement of hybrids, or fuel cell technology, or whatever, and partly as a result of ever-constricting smog standards.

When that day comes, we won't have transmissions AT ALL. The Toyota hybrids already don't, even though some think it is a traditional CVT (which it isn't). The new fuel cell cars don't, I believe.

I would be willing to bet that there will continue to be manual shift availability for as long as there remain transmissions in production cars. But it will be closer to the 7% than the 13% that jeffyscott mentioned, I am sure.

lilengineerboy

I would think it would be the far end of that 50 year window, at which time I will likely be done driving. I also think "driving" as we know it will end prior to that as we get into our individual transport pod and program the destination.

boaz47

However you look at it more than 90 percent of the drivers in the US are not getting manuals. Yes, there are manuals out there but they aren't being bought. It is the numbers alone that relegate the manual to minority status. It isn't me that bought those 90 percent non manuals. I did my part; I have had as many manuals as automatics. I have driven more manuals in my lifetime and more miles with one than most people. I don't discount the value of one. But when I watch the top classes of race cars I see dog leg manuals being replaced with sequential shifters. It doesn’t matter how much a driver or owner may like the dog leg they simply are not competitive in the F-1 ALMS and WRC classes. Now GT-1 and 2 and cars like the Mustang 500FR are being equipped without dog legs as well. Is it my fault? If I didn’t say it was happening would it stop? No I don’t think so. Every day more and more cars are being sold in the US and fewer and fewer of them are manuals. Is that my fault and would the numbers change if I didn’t mention it?

There is nothing else in the world that would be decreasing in usage as much as dog legs and we wouldn’t predict the eventual end of them. We might have more buffaloes in the US than we have manuals I know they have more Alligators and yet we call them endangered? But don’t worry, if my doubts are silenced or if I don’t see the dwindling number of manuals as a concern to enthusiasts nothing will happen.

It is all fine and good to say if they stop making manuals or if my favorite car no longer comes with a manual I will simply get something else or I will nurse my manual till I die. That is true hyperbole. Because in the end a car is simply a machine and whatever machine that sells will be the machine they build.

I simply no not believe that anyone will stop driving if they stop offering a manual transmission in a passenger car. I also do not believe that they will continue to build and sell a car or transmission simply because I stick my bottom lip out and say they should. Things can and do happen that will cause me to alter my stand on issues. I listened to several in these forums that never thought we wouldn’t be able to get a diesel passenger car in California. After all we had the VW and MB 300D. (Some would simply say, “don’t care, I don’t like diesels.)” You have to buy a used one today. Plenty of other choices you say? Heck yes if I want a ¾ ton truck. They will be back; maybe, maybe not. If I were a Maxima fan next year I would have to become a fan of some other car. Doesn’t matter, I could simply change my target vehicle. (Same people might say, “don’t care I don’t like Nissans.) That is fine but it is simply dodging the issue. Manuals are being attacked from every angle racing, passenger cars, the new smart car, two Nissans models and 90 percent of the buyers in the US. Even Porsche is working on producing a better manual without the third pedal. (“Doesn’t matter Porsche will never give in to the masses.” Same thing I heard from Porsche faithful about Porsche not giving into the masses and following BMW into the SUV market.) If that is a bright future to you good you can identify with Scarlet O’Hara. You will worry about it another day. That won’t bring the manual back into the mainstream. It also doesn’t address the future of the manual. Some have said it will at least be a niche transmission at least that is a prediction.

boaz47

well thanks for the splash of cold water. I wonder if it will be 50 years as well. But alas the prue joy of driving will have died so all Porsche drivers will have to eat a bug and die or simply sit on their front porch and watch the wipper snappers drive by in their lowered electric cars. :P

All kidding aside if 7 percent isn't a niche what is it? :confuse:

lilengineerboy

But when I watch the top classes of race cars I see dog leg manuals being replaced with sequential shifters. It doesn’t matter how much a driver or owner may like the dog leg they simply are not competitive in the F-1 ALMS and WRC classes. Now GT-1 and 2 and cars like the Mustang 500FR are being equipped without dog legs as well. Is it my fault?

Those are paid professional drivers, they drive what they are told to drive. I wouldn't expect the airport transport guy to show up in a Civic 5spd, or a over the road truck driver to drive a Camry for work. Fire truck drivers, ambulance drivers (2 I know of have Jetta 1.8t manuals for their personal vehicles), all professionals. They are driving for work, not for enjoyment.

I am not going to buy a Taurus because they have one turning left all day on Saturday...

boaz47

Yes, and even at that they are in the minority.

kapbot

I too have been reading this thread more than being involved in it.

Seems to me the most vocal proponents of "3-pedal or nothing" are folks who can appaerantly afford true sports cars, and these cars are intended to be raced on the track. That's all fine & dandy, but far from the norm. I could certainly afford to buy a "real" sports car if I so choose, (think Corvette or BMW, not 911!!), but I choose not to.

My current ride is equipped with a 5-speed manual, but the problem is that 99.9% of all my driving is mundane point A to point B. Even my lowly Saturn Ion is more than capable of exceeding the available curves and straightaways than laws and common sense will allow. In other words, there's a few curves and long straight roads that would be a blast to take at the limits of my car, but driving that way would no doubt put me in jail.

Anyway, I wouldn't have bought my car with an auto trans. Just wouldn't be the same.

Driver's ed is more and more being put on the back burner. No one is being taught how to drive a stick these days. Kids and new drivers alike are being instructed in auto trans cars, with absolutely no manual trans training. I'd bet that 90% of the auto-trans buying public has never even tried to drive a stick.

IMHO, too many able bodied persons just have never been exposed to the good old manual shift, and certainly not a good manual transmission. A dying breed.

explorerx4

i have some hope that the manual transmission will survive.
as far as i know, people are still willing tie their shoes despite the invention of loafers.

iluvmysephia1

if we continue to express ourselves in forums like this. I know how to drive a stick because my Dad took me to an open lot when I was 15 and 16 and taught me how. I learned on a '66 VW Fastback with a 3-speed manual, IIRC. Could have been a 4-speed but I think it was a 3-speed. It had a "forgiving clutch", or, should I say, I couldn't seem to destroy it's clutch!

Dad was very patient but it didn't take me that long to learn it, eventually. Am I ever glad he made sure I knew how to drive a stick. What a gift from him. I don't know if I would've learned, otherwise.

I think that what is going on today has to do with time and work schedules and earning a decent living and selfishness and not eating together as a family and, well, I think you are getting where I'm heading with this. Teaching a kid to drive stick takes time and effort. And some perseverance.

Those things can be in short supply these days, eh?

kyfdx

I stopped by the local VW dealership a couple of weeks ago.. Probably 3 years since I'd been to one.. It is in a small urban location, so all of the new cars are sitting in one single lot and we checked them all out...

My general estimate is that 25% of the new cars on the VW lot had a manual transmission. Compararing that to my local BMW dealer: I was at their lot yesterday, and except for models that only come with manuals (M roadster and coupe), I'd estimate that only 3-4% of their cars had manual transmissions..

What does this mean? Beats me... but, seeing all those manuals on the VW lot made me happy and seeing all the slushboxes at BMW made me sad (well, at least until I had the free wine and food spread... then I was happy).

jeffyscott

people are still willing tie their shoes despite the invention of loafers

Ha, not me...I've been buying those newer style slip on shoes, the nice, comfortable ones with elastic, for several years :shades: . I do still have to tie the tennis shoes, though.

Of course, I am going away from the manual transmission also, as I never thought of it as recreation. For me, it was about more gears, better mileage, and getting enough power from a 4 cylinder.

andys120

Just a little historical note:

I doubt your Dad's '66 Fastback had only three forward speeds.
My '65 Bug had four including an ultra low first gear and an overdrive fourth. Four speeds were as big a deal in the '60s as six are now but most imports had them as standard by the mid '60s.

The clutch was very light , as you say but it was destructible. I destroyed one in only 27,000 miles but OTOH the replacement clutch was $110 installed.

habitat1

And do you wear those loafers with cotton khakis and wool suits, or have you gone the easy to maintain, high-tech, no-wrinkle polyester route?

boaz47

No. but darn it we have been having a hard time finding spats. And just the other day I was looking for my manual choke and it must be missing. Does Porsche still come with a analog dial radio? Do they still allow you to crank your own windows for the joy of the feel? I do know you can still get a manual top on some cars. Not sure if that tactile joy is still allowed by porsche or not. At least they would never put a black box computer in a Porsche or a REV limiter. It would take the joy out of running you engine passed red line. You have convinced me. Manuals will make a come back and not ever be relegated to a niche status. I always thought Hybrids were a flash in the pan and there was no real fuel crisis. Now if you can just manage to talk them into rescinding their idea about mandating anti skid control so you will still be able to enjoy hanging the tail out on your Porsche in the next ten years we will know the industry will always make a vehicles just for the joy of driving. :P I'm willing to wait and see.

nippononly

another blow for the manual being the thrifty choice: I checked out the new Suzuki SX4 tonight, and while I was cheered that at least they HAD manuals in stock, the 5-speed only makes 23/28 EPA, where the automatic, which is only a 4-speed, makes 24/30! :mad:

What's up with that?

On a side note, I am rather shocked that a car which is brand new and very modern in most other respects was introduced with only four forward speeds in the automatic, but that probably has something to do with the price class it's in.

I have been doing some very casual checking around, and among all the least expensive models out there right now, manuals are readily available at dealer lots, except in the case of the Aveo. I find that to be a very reassuring state of affairs. :-)

boaz47

Was the Aveo just out of manuals or did they simply not stock them?

habitat1

Boaz, are you Jeffyscott? Perhaps since you can't seem to absorb the difference between a race car and a sports car, you are also having a personal identiy crisis?

We all know by now what your fantasy is. Taking that MR2, Mazda 3 or whatever your heart contends, loading it up with a $200 paddle shifting slushbox and pretending you're Shumacher. But while you are at it, you might as well go all the way. Weld the doors shut and put a roll cage in it. Put 5 point seat belts and a removable steering wheel so you can get in and out. Put racing slicks on it with their 150 mile tread life. Throw in the fire extinguisher and don't forget your two way radio racing helmet. We wouldn't want you to miss any of that high tech experience while your pretending to hit 3 g's on those hairpin turns on the way to the office. Even if it's really only 0.5g's and don't have anyone to talk to on the other end of the helmet radio.

On the other hand, you could save a boatlaod and just get a Play Station 3 and figure out how to telecommute to the office.

I may be old fashioned by your "dog leg" standards, but I'm enjoying reality with no need to fantasize. At least not about the cars I drive. And with manual transmissions accounting for over $10 billion in annual sales just from Porsche alone, I know the "business" reality of the manual transmission market. At least in cars that matter to me.

jeffyscott

I'm definitely not Boaz, even if he thinks he is me .

And definitely no on the polyester...cotton is the fabric of choice for me.

I think you are mistaken on your $10 billion from just manuals at Porsche...that is a little more than their total sales, I'm sure they must sell some automatics.

Full-year revenue...7.27 billion euros

nippononly

No, most dealers have a few Aveos - it continues to be a popular model, and in northern California, probably the most popular car at Chevy for retail sales, by some weird twist of fate. But Chevy dealers don't stock manuals, PERIOD. Not in Aveos, not in HHRs, and not in the odd Cobalt that might be found sitting on a dealer lot (a rare sighting). Not even in Corvettes, from what I've seen.

Recent sightings that brought a tear to my eye, and not for a good reason:
1. Leftover 2005 GTOs STILL not sold this late in '06 at the Pontiac dealer. Which transmission? Manual. The automatics were sold long ago.
2. Leftover '06 Accords, two of them, at a dealer near me. These are the very last '06 Hondas on his lot. What are they? The much-vaunted yet little-demanded Accord V-6 6-speed manual. He has them with big red banners in the window at $4K below sticker, yet they continue to gather dust. It is pretty rare for Honda dealers to have leftover anything into the new calendar year.

boaz47

It is indicative of the preferences of most Americans don't you think? But aren't you afraid by noticing this and reporting it you are disturbing the manual Ju-Ju and putting a hex on manuals? After all if we simply ignore a trend it will go away. :P But I do understand. My wife and I have to only manual in the family. well unless you count my son in Texas, now in Iraq. At least his 4Runner is a manual. But none of the cousins have a manual.

What, in your opinion would bring the interest in manuals back to the US?

lilengineerboy

It must be a regional thing. Apparently the TSX, Accord V6 6spd sedan and EX-L are sold as they get unloaded.
What dealer has some V6 6spds sitting around? Are they sedans?

nippononly

"What, in your opinion would bring the interest in manuals back to the US?"

Well, it could start with them not always being geared for performance, or so that we can leave the cruise on at any speed and going up any slope. If the manual was always 10% better OR MORE at saving gas, you would see more sales.

Of course, they have to build a few more. And since we all know the carmakers use the manual as the value leader to lower the base price they can advertise, it would benefit everybody if they would increase the price differential between manual and auto. Make that fancy 5-speed, only-one-in-its-class automatic in the new Fit a $2000 option and price the base Fit at $12,9, and you would sell a LOT more Fits. Honda would kick Hyundai's butt. Just as one example.

nippononly

Hansel in Petaluma has two Accord V-6 6-speed sedans in that goldish color with leather and all the usual EX-L junk. They would have sold more of the V-6 manuals if they had made an LX trim as well, with cloth and without NAV etc etc.

boaz47

What are the chances of that happening? Like someone already pointed out no one is being taught to drive manuals so new drivers start out only test driving Automatics at whatever rate automatics already out sell manuals. It would take an incentive more like they have in Europe where there is a financial benefit to driving a manual.

habitat1

Glad to hear old fashioned cotton is your fabric of choice, in spite of all the technologically advanced petrochemical based alternatives.

And I stand corrected. $10 billion is indeed the total estimated annual sales of Porsche from the article I read, with an estimated 55% ($5.5 billion) being manual transmissions (5% Cayenne, 70% Boxster/Cayman, 85% 911). It is interesting that Porsche makes more profit than the Big Three combined. If that's a dwindling niche market, I'll take it as an investor/shareholder all day.

nippononly

Well, you asked me what would bring back interest in manuals, not the chances of it happening.

For many years, the manual was the less expensive, fuel-conserving choice. Now, except for the very cheapest cars on the market, that's no longer true - the automatic is just as thrifty with gas, the manual only costs a few hundred less to buy (which was a bigger difference in 1985 than it is today - the price of the automatic "option" has not changed in 20 years, how can that be?) and is usually packaged with "sport" packages in the actual build configurations, so that the car with the manual often costs more than its automatic counterparts.

These are all conscious choices being made by carmakers, so if they went back to the model of making manuals less expensive (real world, in the cars actually being built) and designed to save gas vs the automatic, manuals would sell more.

boaz47

You have a point. The Manual was always a economic choice before it became a performance choice. I remember they always used to give better fuel mileage.

You might be right except now the CVT has hit the market and has to very real potential of being less expensive to manufacture Without a considerable price advantage it will be hard to turn the trend around.

I would not be at all surprised to see Nissan make the CVT standard in some of their smaller cars in the very near future. It is light enough for a compact and has good fuel useage numbers. I guess only time will tell. I will admit that while I felt it was a possibility they would make more CVT equipped cars after their SUV the move to a CVT in the Maxima caught me off guard.

jeffyscott

Not surprising that a european manufacturer would still have more than 50% manuals. I'd guess that most of the 15% 911 and 30% Boxster with automatics were US sales. I wonder what those percentages would be for US only? Could it be over 50% automatics for US sales of Boxster/Cayman?

Making any profit at all would mean more profits than the "Big Three" combined.

jeffyscott

Manual is still cheaper by about $800-1000 on ordinary cars that offer it. Accord, Camry, Fusion,...

qbrozen

But not in the V6 accord.

lilengineerboy

Is the V6/stick Accord more expensive than the V6/auto similarly equipped? Like with the sport pkgs and stuff?

qbrozen

no, its just the same price whether you choose the stick or auto.

Depends on how you look at it ... but they are either not giving a discount for choosing the stick or they are not charging more for the automatic.

cdnpinhead

seems to ignore the maintenance & hassle factor aspects of all this. A manual rarely needs attention, let alone replacement (assuming the driver knows how to use a clutch). Even when attention is required, the cost is considerably lower. Many of the boards are full of limp-home, delayed shift & other joys that those of us with manuals only read about.

In the lux or near-lux categories that appear to drive much of the discussion here, most lease. They couldn't care less how much anything costs to fix and appear to enjoy driving loaners or Enterprise vehicles.

As much as anything else, the decline of the manual in medium to high-dollar vehicles can be attributed to the lease mentality: Who cares how long it lasts or how much it costs to fix? I've got a warranty.

Oh boy.

lilengineerboy

My family has yet to have a vehicle with an automatic transmission that didn't need to be replaced within the vehicle's life time (twice that was the reason for getting rid of a car). One car had a new clutch (and everyone learned or "remembered" how to drive stick on it).

bhill2

I think that you (and others) have put your finger on the problem in front of those who would, like me, like to see the manual tranny thrive. Over time, most of the reasons for choosing a stick, fuel economy, performance, price, and durability, have largely disappeared as automatic transmissions have improved. Now the main reason for driving a stick is because it is more enjoyable and gives better control of the car. That is certainly enough for me, but doesn't provide a lot of motivation to someone who has never learned to use one. They have no way to relate.

walterquint

The CVT is not living up to its fuel economy promise. Ford has not been happy with its CVT in the 500, its new autobox gets much better fuel economy......I think the manny-tranny will die off eventually. Automatics are getting smarter and more economical, with 5-8 gears nowadays! I think automakers prefer automatics b/c they are easier to integrate into a vehicle's complex electronics, emissions and 4WD systems (That's why the Rav4 and CRV dumped their sticks)..........as for a stick's "durability": I'm not convinced. I removed the shift boot and console cover of my shifter; ALL the parts were plastic, even the ball joint that joins the stick to the base. I was stunned. I'd chalk this up to typical American shoddiness, but the shifter was licensed from a German manufacturer. And regardless of boasts of clutches lasting "forever", the reality is they rarely last over 5 yrs of normal driving, esp. in urban settings.. A well-serviced autotranny can last 9-10 yrs before rebuild.........side note: I get great mileage with my 2.2L Ecotec 4cyl, 5sp stick, mainly because I coast a lot. Coasting really lowers the revs. However, I have curtailed that activity, b/c coasting out of gear is technically illegal on the roadways. (I've heard that from 2 sources, any confirmation?) :confuse:

boaz47

That and warrentee. One of the factors that drive people in trucks to automatics is that the tow package comes standard with the Automatic. The tow package may be nothing more than a bigger radiator and a bit heavier spring rate. But it is listed as a tow package and everyone thinks they are going to tow something at sometime. If you still decide you want a manual it is pointed out that the clutch disk and pressure plate are not covered by the 100,000 mile warrentee. It isn't that expensive to replace a clutch disk or throw out bearing? Nope it isn't that bad, it is $1000.00 on a Saturn SL-2 however. Not sure what it is on a Honda. But the bottom line is, for the consumer that didn't learn to drive a stick in the first place fixing a manual "sounds" like it could be a problem. Notice I said sounds like? The Automatic is covered no matter how you damaged it, your fault or theirs. It might be inconvenient but it is covered.

nippononly

You mention two attributes which I would say (except in very expensive luxury sports cars) are still in favor of the manual: performance and durability.

Now I have yet to see just what the durability of your average CVT is, but I would put a manual transmission up against a torque-converted automatic ANY DAY of the week for long-term durability.

As for performance, even the folks who love the new F1-style sequential manuals have yet to come up with an advantage of more than 0.1-0.2 seconds for the auto, and this by professional drivers, a feat unlikely to be matched by your garden variety enthusiast. Sometimes it is a dead heat. I think the Porsche sales numbers above speak for themselves: 85% of the buyers of Porsche's top-of-the-line sports car still choose manual. Manual is just more fun if you are buying strictly a fun/weekends-at-the-track sort of car. If instead the car is your daily driver, then performance differences of 0.1-0.2 seconds are mostly irrelevant, IMO, considering the use you will have for the vehicle 97% of the time.

nj2pa2nc

as long as i can get a vehicle with manual transmission and still able to drive it I will own one. Just bought a 6 speed manual transmission 2006 acura tsx. 98.% of my numerous previously owned vehicles had manual.

explorerx4

i do a lot of coasting in my manual trans focus too.
i think coasting is illegal, but so is speeding.
the epa is revamping their fuel mileage tests, it ought to be interesting to see what the results are.

cdnpinhead

. . .felt the same way before I mastered the 12 speed in my KW.

This caught my attention since, when I drove professionally (a number of years ago), the Fullers (Roadrangers) were either 13, 10, 9 or 8 speed, and they dominated the market for over-the-road trucks. Logging and other specialized applications (back in the day) used Spicer setups that had one transmission in front of the other (I'm sure you know this, but I'm trying to provide context for others), so maybe you had a 3 X 4. I learned on a 4 X 5 Autocar conventional (ex-logging truck) -- beautiful exhaust note.

Or (as is much more likely), times have changed since I was paying attention. How did you end up with twelve speeds? My guess is that you never used the granny gear in your 13-speed (granny, four low, split the top four), but I thought I'd ask.

I don't think anyone here is trying to convince you that the manual will ever gain market share over where it is today or where it was five years ago -- it'll never get higher.

The concern is that the manual will go away altogether. You seem to be in favour of it, sooner rather than later.

I'm not.

boaz47

Had to go back and look at some of my old pictures, you are right the KW had a Roadranger 13 speed. I only had that for a year before I moved to a Mack Rw713 with a 12 speed for about a year and a half and the last four years were in a new, for me, International 9670 cab over with a 10 speed and a Fuel Squeezer. The last four years were spent driving paper and machines for Xerox between LA and South San Francisco. One of the best Jobs I ever had. Even if I had the 15 hour day now and then.

To be honest, it doesn't matter how I feel about the manual. It could come or it could stay and my feeling will not change that one bit. I will drive whatever they make. I just see fewer and fewer choices every year. I don't see that turning around and every new transmission they make is one less manual in my opinion. Don't care if it is sooner or later I would just like to see them offer a sequencial transmission in a passenger car before they go all together. I never thought much about it till they disappeared all together in F-1, then Alms, and then Some of the GT classes. Once I was turned on to WRC and saw they were missing in action there as well.

Do I care if it is sooner or later? Sure it will be a shame to see them go. Will I stop driving? Not likely. Do I think they have a future in the US with all the new Hybrids and EPA standards? Nope, but that is my opinion only.

jeffyscott

And regardless of boasts of clutches lasting "forever", the reality is they rarely last over 5 yrs of normal driving

I have never had any manual transmission repairs. We have gone 12 years, 120,000 miles on two. 11 years, 110,000 miles and counting on another and 12 years 140,000 miles and counting on another.

Never had to pay for any repairs on automatics either. We do have a 16 year old Sentra with 150,000 miles that is starting to have problems with the automtic...but I'll not be fixing it since the car is worn out, anyway. (Also, wife's new Jetta did need transmission repair under warranty in its first year.)

My opinion would be manuals are more durable, but not enough of a difference that this will affect my choice to switch to an automatic on my next new car.

shipo

"...as for a stick's "durability": I'm not convinced. I removed the shift boot and console cover of my shifter; ALL the parts were plastic, even the ball joint that joins the stick to the base. I was stunned. I'd chalk this up to typical American shoddiness, but the shifter was licensed from a German manufacturer. And regardless of boasts of clutches lasting "forever", the reality is they rarely last over 5 yrs of normal driving, esp. in urban settings."

You don't really believe that do you? My last ten cars spread out over thirty plus years have all had three pedals under the dash (errr, well, one had four, a parking brake pedal too), and the only clutch that I've had to replace was on my 1970 Dodge Challenger, and I was, ummm, errr, a little rough on that one.

Looked at from another perspective, a co-worker of mine has just a hair over a quarter of a million miles on his daily driver (which has a 5-Speed), and it is still on its original clutch. Not too shabby. :shades:

The truth of the matter is that both Automatic and Manual transmissions fail. The further truth is that Automatics fail much more often and cost several times more to fix when they do fail.

Best Regards,
Shipo

lilengineerboy

And regardless of boasts of clutches lasting "forever", the reality is they rarely last over 5 yrs of normal driving, esp. in urban settings.

Perhaps this is more based on driving style...
I lived in the bay area for some time and that is pretty urban and never had to replace a clutch. I think it varies more from person to person.
I know of no-one who got 10-12 years out of a recent automatic transmission. A '76 Nova with a 250 I6 and a 350TH trans came the closest but it had relatively low miles on it. Man, was that thing a tank though; I kinda miss it.

w9cw

I currently have three cars with manual transmissions - all old. Two Classic SAAB 900s with 5-speeds, and a Volvo 144S with a 4-speed. Each SAAB has over 160,000 miles and the Volvo over 225,000. None have had any transmission work, but all three have had a single clutch replacement.

Once the transmissions do need work, I would rather pay the price for a manual rebuild or replacement, than any automatic.

One of our other vehicles is a 1994 Dodge Grand Caravan ES with 161,000 miles. It has the problematic 4-speed ECT automatic, and although they have been a horror story for many, we've never had a single problem with it. The transmission is original and still shifting fine with no seal leaks. I change ATF every 20K miles, and drive very conservatively with no jack rabbit starts or other abuse.

ray80

"regardless of boasts of clutches lasting "forever", the reality is they rarely last over 5 yrs of normal driving, esp. in urban settings"
My 96 Grand AM had 246,000 miles on it when I gave it to may daughter last year, still original clutch. Maybe I just got 'the good one

shipo

To hear walterquint tell it, yup, you did indeed get 'the good one.'

Of course the rest of us know better and aren't even remotely surprised at the number of miles you've gotten from your Grand Am's clutch and tranny. ;-)

Best Regards,
Shipo

boaz47

I think it is kids that cause clutch problems. I have never had a clutch go on me nor have i had to replace an automatic myself. But I had to replace a clutch in my Sons Zuki, Jeep, Honda Civic SI, and Saturn SC-1. But then I had to replace his Automatic in the Mustang al well. I chalk up the Zuki, and Jeep to rock crawling and the civic to airport drag strips. The Mustang was from driving up and down the mountain. But that kid could work a car.

bottgers

Manny-trannies are definitely more durable than autos. I have two manuals now with over 100K miles still on the original clutches. I do think the longevity of autos can be drastically improved by having them flushed every 30K miles. Too many people simply drain their autos and then wonder why they need to be rebuilt before 100K miles. They don't realize they're only changing about 1/3 of the fluid when they do that. Also, tranny coolers lengthen the life span as heat is an auto killer.