Subaru's fortunes sinking - can they turn it around?

ateixeira

The automaker is aiming for sales of 204,500 vehicles in the U.S. this year

Found that in another thread. Oh well, they still can't all agree on exactly what numbers to forecast.

GM did what I'd suggested they do long ago - adopt a no-haggle price policy with real prices instead of these pure-fantasy MSRPs. I've long been a proponent of the Saturn sales method, as long as prices are realistic.

The catch? The way they did it, I don't see a way for them to exit gracefully. Market share will crash when they do, by more than 46%, and you can quote me on that.

Our new car fund went towards a beach condo, so we'll have to wait a while. Even if we did make a move now, it would likely be on a newer used vehicle. The Fence is pretty secure. My boxers are staple-gunned to it.

-juice

kyfdx

Be careful... wouldn't want to get anything in your boxers stapled..

jeffmc

juice - Thanks the brief on your boxers. So on the B9 you'll wait and pick one up for a thong?
(Thorry to make you bare my humor!)

stickguy

noticed a new white Tribeca in the garage of a house down the street from me. Traded up from a Taurus wagon. Don't think it looks good in white, but at least they sold 1!

ateixeira

I saw my 5th on the road yesterday on I-270, light green. Still think it looks best in black, add a black mesh grille and it's perfect.

nippon - they made a model just for you, the 2006 Legacy 2.5i SE. Adds a moonroof and power seats to the base model Legacy for just $300 on the sedan, quite a deal. Power and torque are up slightly as well.

-juice

varmint

"The Fence is pretty secure. My boxers are staple-gunned to it."

That's the first time I've read about someone using undergarments as structural reinforcement.

204K units is more likely than 208K, but we're splitting hairs at that point. If Subaru makes that goal, it will likely be Tribeca sales alone which gets them there.

nippononly

that sounds intriguing, when will this '06 Legacy 2.5 SE be available at dealers?

jeffmc

Here's an update to the Subaru-owned flagship dealerships story that was floating around several months ago:

http://www.statesman.com/metrostate/content/gen/ap/TX_Subaru_Dealer.html

ateixeira

Probably about a month or so. I'll keep my eyes peeled.

They did something similar for MY2003. The SE model was just pennies more than the base L model, and what we figured later was that the L model was really only available on special order.

They made almost no L models that year, as you might have guessed. Tall folks who really don't want a moonroof, maybe?

-juice

stickguy

THere is a new Sube dealer opening nearby, that looks like it will be a stand alone. There actually used to be one accross the street, but it closed a few years back (didn't fit with the Mitsu/Kia autmall crowd). Seems like a natural place, since it is about 1/2 mile up the road from SOA headquarters!

Should be nice. They are taking over the MB dealership building (they just built a huge palace down the road).

One interesting thing is it will be next door to the volvo dealer, which could be interesting.

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rwoods

I've been looking at the Toyota Sienna XLE Limited with something akin to lust lately. The Tribeca is the main competition. Prices are somewhat different but the new Sienna is very attractive. This vehicle would be my Long Island to Florida over the road, haul the dog, put the wife in the back with the DVD movie player vehicle. Before I do anything I'll test drive both and let everyone hear my feelings. And of course I will welcome your opinions.

Bob

rsholland

Bob-to-Bob

The question is: How important is the 3rd-row seat? If it's important, then the Sienna is the hands-down winner. Otherwise, I'd go with the Tribeca, as it will handle better, and be much more fun to drive, especially with the SportShift. Plus, it has a more sophisticated AWD system than is offered (as an option) on the Sienna.

Remember this is not really an apples-to-apples comparison, as the Sienna is a full-fledged minivan, while the Tribeca is an SUV crossover. So, if you want minivan attributes, the Sienna will come out ahead; and if you want SUV crossover attributes, the Tribeca will be the winner.

Are you considering the Sienna with AWD or FWD?

Bob

jrosasmc

Have you personally seen any Legacy of the 1995-99 generation with over 200k miles on it?

I recently saw a '96 Outback my high school principal drives; he has had it since it was new. He told me it has 183k miles and still runs strong- it's on the original engine and tranny (automatic). I was of the perception that Subies of that vintage would only do on average about 140k and then die, b/c I've never seen any go to 200k.

rsholland

This Bob speaking...

Well, I can't speak about any Legacy of that era, but we have a '96 Impreza Outback with around 140K on it, and it's running fine.

Bob

jeffmc

Here's a 1999 Outback in Sweden with over 500k miles. I can't get a direct link to the story, but if you go to www.pressinformation.com and search for "Subaru Outback" you'll find the press release in English from 05/17/05. Or below you can read what I copied (incidentally, like other parts of the world, they call a trailer a "caravan"):

Best lasting car ever?
800 000 km in six years with a Subaru and caravan. And it still has the original engine!
Is Roger Söderbergs 1999 Subaru Outback in Sweden the best lasting car ever?
With more than 800 000 km on the meter that is quite possibly so.
Especially since neither engine, transmission or shocks have been changed since the car was new!
On april 14 Roger Söderberg did his bi-annual MOT in the town of Sunne i Sweden. The test-results was ”all OK”, which is not uncommon with Subarus. But the fact that Rogers car had some 807 810 km’s on the meter makes it all a bit special!
Especially since both engine and transmission are the same as when the car was new! It all becomes even more fascinating when you consider that most of Rogers driving has been done towing a caravan! And that Roger has a severe movement disability which makes it impossible for him to use the right foot for acceleration, he uses his left foot instead,
Roger Söderberg drives extremely much, perhaps more than anyone else in Sweden. Up to 160 000 km a year makes an average of more than 700 km per working day!
- I’m not really hired by anyone, Roger says.
- I help caravan manufacturers and distributors making deliveries to their dealers. It’s like a therapy for me. And I get my expenses paid!
Roger is on disablement pension due to an injury at birth. But ever since he got his drivers license he has spent as much time as possible behind the wheel.
- When I drive I have exactly the same capacity as everyone else who drives a car. The fact that my legs don’t work doesn’t matter.
Roger has become a legend in the Swedish caravan business, and many cars has been worn out during his journeys.
- Other brands might last for two years, but since I started with Subaru I have only been through two cars in 10 years. The one I have now is a ’99 Outback that I got in 2000 with 12,000 km on the meter.
Original shocks.
Börje Jönsson at ”Sunne Bil & Maskin” has taken care of Rogers Subaru since the beginning.
- We really haven’t done a lot of work during any of the more than 60 maintenance services he has done with us, says Börje.
- Engine and transmission are still the same as when the car was new, but we did change the cylinder head gaskets at 680,000 km. Plus that we have changed bearings in the rear wheels and in the front differential.
- But shocks, suspension and even exhaust are still all original!
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT
Dan Persson, International Motors (Nordic) AB
E-mail: dpersson@im-nordic.com
www.subaru.se
Tel: +46-42-490 49 04
Cell: +46-708-99 49 04

rwoods

Bob,

Thank you for your response to my quandary with the Sienna and the Tribeca.

I am considering the Sienna XLE Limited with AWD. However you make excellent points. The third row seats are not important to me. With those seats folded down and out of the way the Sienna has a cavern for luggage. Utility is the paramount concern as I will have two aged parents, a dog and a wife along with all their "goods" as Fred C. Dobbs would say in Treasure of the Sierra Madras as we travel back and forth to Florida from Long Island.

If the Tribeca has enough carrying capacity I will give it my vote as I am really satisfied with my Subaru ownership experience with the Outback wagon.

rsholland

Well, I would say at this point, the best thing to do is to check them both out.

I would also recommend doing it several times at different dealers, several days apart. That way you will get a better, and a more complete picture of both vehicles. Doing it several days apart also allows for some questions that you may have forgotten or never even thought of the first time, to be addressed.

Bob

sweet_subie

make use of the tribeca 24-hr test drive that is on now.

ateixeira

A '98 Forester sold on E-bay with 274k miles. And it sold, so I guess it's higher now.

I like the Sienna for lots of reasons - AWD, interior space, wide opening power sliding doors, capacity for 8 (but sadly not with AWD), windows that go down, etc. Range will be better with a bigger tank plus better highway miles.

My practical side says get a Sienna.

My emotional side says get a Tribeca.

You only live once, and you'll have a lot more fun owning a Tribeca. More fun to drive by far.

We're in the same boat, we both admit we could really use the space offered by a minivan, but guess what? Neither one of us is willing to own it and be the primary driver. Wife has concerns about image, while I need to enjoy what I drive and the Sienna is about as boring as watching those colored lines on your TV.

So we won't get one unlesss it's our 3rd car because neither one of us wants to drive it. LOL

-juice

nippononly

I think it's funny that the only car that is excluded from the test drive program is the Impreza - the cheapest one in the line-up! Why exclude it?

Automotive News has a blurb quoting the Subaru chief (Yamagami? Something like that) as wanting to achieve a 5% increase in NA Subaru dealers this year, to get back over 600 (didn't they have 600 or more back in the 90s? I thought they did). Or approximately the same number as Suzuki has (Suzuki also wants to increase its dealer presence this year, by a larger percentage).

Imagine, GM has something like 5000 dealers among all its domestic brands. I believe Toyota has over 1000.

ateixeira

Hiro Kamagami.

It's hard to do in a time when more manufacturers also want exclusive dealerships, and Subaru is pretty small. They're just as likely to get squeezed out of a larger brand's store.

Fitzgerald Subaru/Toyota in Gaithersburg had a cool solution - they are in the same building but each side appears to be the "front", and each has half the showroom, though each appears to be by itself.

Another location forced Isuzu outdoors, so no Isuzus are displayed at all, but they still sell them if you ask.

Opening a Toyota dealership is a no-brainer - they have lucrative hybrids to sell and customer line up to pay sticker or more. But Subarus have lower margins so it's a harder sell.

-juice

kdshapiro

"they have lucrative hybrids to sell and customer line up to pay sticker or more."

Change the word customer to sucker and you have it correct.

stickguy

at least an "odyssey is relatively fun to drive, unlike the Sienna.

We went through the same exercise last winter (although with the Volvo XC-90, since the B9 wasn't out yet). I liked the volvo, but in the end, practicality won out. We would have given up a lot of room (people and cargo) to move from a van to an SUV (X-over, aka glorified station wagon).

My wife doesn't care about the image part at least, or at least not enough to make a difference. What whe really likes is the high seating position!

Our next car will likely be along the lines of a Tribeca, but that won't be until at least on kid is out of the house (and college), which is when the Honda will be 8.5 years old. And I will be broke.

ateixeira

Very close, it only lacks AWD. Even with FWD I prefer the Sienna's 8 passenger layout. The Ody's 8th seat is about 6" wide and really just there to fill the gap, not accomodate a human.

An Ody with T/C and S/C would still make my short list. So would an MPV, CX-7, Mazda5 (M/T available), even the new Sedona/Entourage.

-juice

sweet_subie

you can't get NAV etc with 8-pass on sienna, really crazy

nippononly

noticed that: Sienna only offers 8 passenger seating on the CE and LE grades, where a lot of niceties are not available. Go higher, and it is 7 passengers all the way.

Finally saw my first Tribeca on the road yesterday.

ateixeira

I've spotted several at this point, maybe 6-7.

I pick up the loaner tomorrow night! :-)

-juice

nippononly

one being pulled up onto the back of a flatbed tow truck yesterday. Does that count? :-P

Wonder what the July sales will look like. Dealers are definitely stocked now.

Has the number of U.S. dealers dipped since the mid-90s?

rsholland

http://www.autoweek.com/news.cms?newsId=102754

Bummer... no STis... :P

Bob

ateixeira

Hmm, I could've gotten to Summit Point and back in an STi...bummer! LOL

Saw the "Dust in the Wind" ad on TV, NBC last night and then one of the news channels this morning.

So it's national now. I'd only seen stuff on OLN and Discovery, i.e. targeted cable channels, before this.

-juice

ateixeira

http://www.autoweek.com/news.cms?newsId=102799

dino001

And what do they do in as a follow up? Take out manual transmission from wagon. Yeah, that's how do you create a really sporty image... I even wrote to them about it leaving an unhappy customer feedback on their website. For first time no response at all.

nippononly

that IS good news! Call Subaru niche or mainstream or whatever, it will still help Sube to broaden its customer base geographically. It cannot subsist on New England, Colorado, and the Pacific Northwest alone! :-)

They need to make the Impreza just as relevant to the market's needs as the Legacy revision seems to have done for that model. I wish they could do it sooner than MY 2008.

ateixeira

Note that I've been saying a lot of the stuff in that article for a while now...

Equally important is profitability. Sales of the six-cylinder and high-trim models have increased significantly.

I met Bill Cyphers in New York, interviewed him personally. In fact I've quoted him before.

Problem is there is a lag, record sales around now will mean healthy profits next year. I will seem like a genius. LOL

72% of Legacys are sedans, and I'm willing to wager an even higher percentage of Legacy GTs were sedans (20% or fewer are wagons I'd wager).

Now consider that of those 20% or so, especially among wagons, more of them are automatics. Probably 3/4ths, maybe more than that.

-juice

dino001

it is just me and possibly three other guys in the country, who may want manual station wagon. The worst part is that I just gave up on getting 6 cylinder manual Legacy wagon, but now they tell me forget about turbo, too. I am just not very happy right now

But enough whining - lets move on. When he time comes, the will see. If had to buy German to get all I want, will go German. To bad though, becasue otherwise I think Subaru is great.

sweet_subie

on fitzmall, i see one 2006 GT wagon manual.

subearu

I got my manual station wagon - my F-XT - and am plenty happy with it. :shades: If I ever decided to get a Legacy it would be a sedan.

-Brian

dino001

So why have I read reports on this forum that it was dropped for 2006? The person posting them was supposed to knowing what they were talking about (a dealer if I am not mistaken). :confuse:

jeffmc

I can't find that vehicle at fitzmall's website. I just checked here on Edmunds and it also shows no manual on 2006 GT wagons. There are two model codes, both automatic, one for ivory interior and one for black interior.
A call to Subaru customer service was not helpful... they had no information on 2006 models. The representative I spoke with said she doubted the transmission offering would change from 2005, but didn't sound very confident to me. She thought they would not be on sale until August.
I also called Fitzmall, where the salesperson I spoke with said he had it "from a reliable source there will be a manual transmission."

So we've got conflicting information from at least four sources (cars101.com, edmunds.com, fitzmall & subaru customer service). Maybe it's just a week or two too early to know for sure.

Sorry for any frustration, dino!

sweet_subie

go & get an 05.

nippononly

here's the best piece of news I have heard for Subaru in a while: GM is selling 8.7% of Fuji Heavy to Toyota, and the remainder of its holding on the market. No more heavy-handed GM messing around with Subaru, and no more forced sharing of its models.

The article in Automotive News was not specific, but I wonder what this means for the proposed Tribeca clone to be known as the Saab 9-6 which was scheduled to come around next year...

robr2

but I wonder what this means for the proposed Tribeca clone to be known as the Saab 9-6 which was scheduled to come around next year...

According the WSJ, it's dead and Subaru is taking a $50 million charge off.

rsholland

Great news!

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051005/japan_toyota.html?.v=11

Bob

varmint

http://www.detnews.com/2005/autosinsider/0510/05/0aut-338286.htm

http://home.kyodo.co.jp/modules/fstStory/index.php?storyid=206790

I have to agree with Bob on this one. This could really turn things around quick. As I understand it, Toyota is particularly interested in battery technologies developed by FHI (for hybrids and the like). But tech sharing and financial support with Toyota is nothing to sneeze at.

Let's just hope Toyota's somewhat rigid management style doesn't impede Subaru's independent spirit.

mutsumoto

I agree with all of you that such purchase should be good for both Subaru and Toyota. I have to admit, even we in the automotive industry has been totally caught off guard by the surprise development. I believe this can allow Subaru to concentrate more on its core product with Toyota's cash injection and some performance engineering will not hurt Toyota either.

njswamplands

GM got the cash injection when they sold the stock. Subaru got zero cash as this was not a stock offering but a shareholder transaction.

nippononly

is a major stoppage of GM interference in Subaru's product development. Toyota's style of part ownership is completely different. And I bet this will clear the way for Subaru to just use Toyota's HSD in its hybrids - how far along were they in developing a commercially viable hybrid system?

As for Toyota's benefits, Subaru still has one of the more advanced AWD systems out there. Plus a decent following around the world, al its rally experience, and profitability in many years. Don't think we'll see Toyota using flat fours any time soon though. :-)

rsholland

It will be interesting to see how this all shakes out. Will Subaru still continue as a brand with "attitude" and "spunk?" I sure hope so, as I think that work well to compliment the more conservative and straight-laced images of both Toyota and Lexus.

Bob

varmint

So what do we know about Toyota's "style" for part ownership? And does Toyota even have enough of a share to be all that dominant? (They did not buy all of GM's shares, but I don't know what they had prior to the purchase.)

I know the organization can be pretty rigid within it's own ranks. Toyota is a very focused "top-down" kind of company. Meanwhile Subaru seems more like an upstart in the industry.

And, as long as we've revived this thread, how is the Tribeca working out? Is it selling enough volume to fill the lost production at the Lafayette plant?