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Subaru's fortunes sinking - can they turn it around?
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Recently, yes, but I'm guessing we'll see it cycle back down if gas prices remain high. That happened after the last OPEC crisis.
In this scenario Subaru seemed to play it safe, they chose a size slightly bigger than the popular RX330 but hedged their bets and didn't go all-out in size.
As is typical for Subaru, they tend to slot inbetween common segment sizes, Impreza being slightly smaller than Corolla/Civic, Legacy being slightly smaller than Accord/Camry, and now Tribeca being slightly smaller than the 4Runner/Pilot (though slightly bigger than the Highlander).
-juice
Subaru's position on stability control is probably this: AWD is so superior to RWD/FWD that by itself it can be considered of a stability control system. After 2 years with WRX I can confirm it - the wheels are "looking" for traction when I toss the car on the curve, exactly like stability control system. Very assuring, never felt I got even close to losing control. Lost traction couple of times, but the trajectory was very much under control.
In stability control systems you have brake forces and ignition cutoff applied to wheels, in AWD you have power transfer to those wheels that have traction. The type and extent of the trasfer depends on the model. In VDC and Tribeca models stability control (thus ignition cutoff and braking force) is applied on top of the AWD, therefore the car is even more "idiotproof" than WRX or Legacy. I bet you though WRX or Legacy will still beat most of the FWD cars with this system in both obstacle course performance and real life handling/control.
Now, for simple marketing reasons, I agree that some system would be good even on lower models/trims. At least available. Same with side impact/curtain airbags on Impreza RS. It is generally not good for your image if you claim you are about safety and do not offer full safety features on all your models, even if you believe there is some redundancy.
2018 430i Gran Coupe
AWD has been available for decades and is just as popular (if not more so) than SC. I've never seen any evidence to suggest that AWD systems provide a 30-40% advantage over 2WD cars.
Having said that, I don't think Subaru is any farther behind the ball than others in the NA market. The number of companies which have made SC standard across the line is smaller than the list of those which make it an option. There are still many models which do not even offer it as an option.
I don't think it's realistic to expect Subaru to react to every market trend before they even happen.
They can't add VDC to the viscous coupling AWD system, it only works with their VTD AWD system, which costs more.
Subaru needs to engineer a 2nd, and completely different, slower-acting system that would let the VC act first and only kick in afterwards. The tricky part is tuning it right so you don't get binding.
For example, Hyundai has it on the Santa Fe, but the AWD system is mechanical and not integrated with the traction control. So oddly enough it's tuned so that they don't both operate at the same time. It's primarily FWD, and lets AWD kick in first. If the wheels are still spinning the traction control kicks in but the rear axle is completely disengaged.
The kicker is the full-time nature of Subaru's AWD means there is no cheap solution. Audi does it with their Torsen but look at the prices - $1750 on top of already premium prices.
I predict we will see VDC spread across the lineup, at least on vehicles priced over $25k or so. But it's not affordable to use on a sub-$20k Impreza, for instance.
Time to get help from one of the suppliers mentioned above for a solution to this. Viscous couplings are common in the industry so I'm sure someone has a cheaper solution than putting VDC on every model.
-juice
So, the cars we don't like don't count? (I'd be the first to say the HR-V is a dud.)
If you're thinking that Subaru builds their cars to slot between other models, I can accept that. But that's not the same thing going on with the Legacy. I stand by my original assessment. The Legacy matches the size of the cars in other markets. It does not slot between them. That makes it a "world car". A car designed for the world market. Based on its high sales in the world markets, I can understand why they would not change it for NA.
If Subaru's Impreza/Forester models slot between the standards of any car market (trying to fit into two classes), it cannot be a world car. It is simply a tweener.
There's nothing inherently wrong with building a tweener. But that's not the path to volume sales. It's a good path for niche cars. And unless Subaru gets some volume, they're going to have trouble keeping pace with all the new technologies, market niches, and changes to existing markets.
I don't know that the Forester and Impreza slots in between other cars it competes with, from a size standpoint. That's an assumption I'm not willing to make. My gut feeling is it's not a tweener.
The point I was simply trying to make is that Honda, Toyota and others have a multitude of other different sized vehicles to offer, to cover all the market "size" niches. Subaru doesn't.
Bob
I agree with the general sentiment regarding stability controls, certainly on vehicle with higher COGs, like the Forester and perhaps the Outback. That was a very striking report that came out in the news this week, showing a HUGE reduction in accident-related fatalities in cars with VSC vs those without.
And if Hyundai can afford to put side curtain airbags in every model this year (does that include the Accent? I forget, but I know it includes Elantra) then Subaru can afford to do the same. These are an important safety feature, based on the statistics.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Well, I don't think anybody was doing any research with comparisons of 2WD and AWD. Until couple of years ago AWD was a real option only on Audis, Subarus, and limited MB and BMW models. All others were low-range 4WD, 4x4 systems. Even those full-time 4WD were usually automatic shift on the fly low range drives. The AWD as we know them today really started in early 80s with Audi Quatro racing car (as I remember when they went first on the course they thought their stopwatch broke), then Subaru joined the pack (they had 4WD before), then BMW and MB. With arrival of Haldex clutch and electronics being much cheaper than before, we now see Volvo, Infinity, Lexus, and others offering it. Nippon will of course would add his Acura's "best in the world" SH-AWD (if it is from Honda, it must be the best).
Generally, I agree there is no scientific evidence. However, as a driver with some limited experience I can basically say that superiority of AWD is unquestioned on both dry and wet pavement (from stability/grip point of view, I don't want to start discussion whether RWD is faster or FWD is more economical!). I have not yet been in a situation under which my car reacted in a way warranting any intervention of SC. I don't do crazy, though, so perhaps if my idiot factor was higher, even my car may be tripped to lose control. Those few slips I had were immediately resolved by reducing accelerator and quick action of the AWD clutch (WRX has "mechanical" AWD). As I said before, the car "found" traction on its own, no electronics necessary.
2018 430i Gran Coupe
I got the impression that several in this thread were suggesting something along these lines: Because Subaru does not offer a wide range of cars, they must build cars that can slot into several categories. And that this why the Impreza and Forester are smaller than the competition.
I admire Hyundai for pushing the envelope with all this safety equipment. I just don't expect everyone to follow suit within two minutes of Hyundai making the announcement. If Subaru is still lacking SC across the line 5 years from now, they've got a problem. (I doubt very much that will be the case.) But you have to give them time to make these changes.
This is the one segment of the automotive market which is seeing major demand growth. Consumers are willing to pay premium prices for low-emission, low-pollution gas/electric drivetrains.
Given the virtual certainty of higher gas prices in coming years, more and more buyers will turn to hybrids. Is it time for Subaru to go after a piece of the action? Can the company afford not to?
http://www.cars.com/go/features/autoshows/vehicle.jsp?autoshow=&vehicletype=concept&autosh- owyear=2004&vehicle=concept_Subaru_B9SC
Bob
http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2005/06/17/afx2098143.html
Bob
It's a good system. AWD in general is obviously a good thing from a traction POV, but you are still riding around on four little contact patches. As a result, stability control can do so much to counteract the effects of an overly ambitious driver that AWD cannot. I do think its application should be prioritized for light trucks, SUVs and whatnot because of the much-increased risk of rollover, but I welcome the day when it is standard in all cars. Provided it has a switch to turn it off for track days and "a bit o' fun", of course.
From what juice has said, I don't think Subaru will be ready to offer it across the line in five years' time though.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
I remember somebody wrote something like that a few pages ago in this thread. Assumed it was you, perhaps it was somebody else (clear Honda lover). Sorry, shoulda checked before put it on paper
Back to SC - I am all for it. It would be great to have it, as much as all the other great stuff. For free, needless to say
2018 430i Gran Coupe
I am almost positive the one you are thinking of is varmint. He is a big fan of the SH-AWD, I believe.
And of course, nothing is ever free in the car world, dontcha' know. But if they made it standard and increased base prices $300-400 to account for it, that would be a good idea I think. The SC, I mean.
It is hard to believe there are still car companies making ABS optional, or even unavailable, like the last vestiges of the old Civic line at Honda (ABS to be standard for the '06 beginning in the fall). With so much advertising effort going towards promoting safety aspects and equipment of cars nowadays, I am sure consumers will soon come to insist on a full complement of safety equipment in whatever they buy. Which is why Sube should make those side curtains standard ASAP.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
2018 430i Gran Coupe
2018 430i Gran Coupe
Bob
"It has the ugliest grille I have seen in a long time...overall, it could shame the Aztek, and I mean that. It's not even sexy ugly, but ugly-stick ugly. It-hurts-to-look-at-you ugly"
He also says it could use more power, another theme running through the "professional" reviews I have read so far, and ends with "Did I mention it is ugly?"
He is clearly slightly obsessed! :-P
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Anything below BBB- is JUNK STATUS. BB+ is 2 notches below BBB-. The reason cited by rating agency is profitability prospects.
The bond downgrade is a worry to the extent that FHI needs to sell new debt to finance its operations. Carrying cost of existing debt is unaffected by credit downgrades. If FHI has plans on the drawing board for future models to be funded with new bonds, the reduced credit rating is a potentially serious issue. Moreso if interest rates go up - which also increases the risk of a recession, which would whack auto sales across the board. Such an event would affect Subaru and other "niche" manufactures in particular, as they lack the economies of scale and market share enjoyed by the big guns.
The more you think about this stuff, the more you realize how scary the car business is. Then again, after GM had its bond rating cut below investment grade in March, the stock made a big move up, from 24 to 35 bucks. Ford shares bottomed out at about the same time and are now up more than 20%. So maybe there has been too much pessimism about the auto business of late.
Even though your a huge believer in safety issues, as I .. the "broad market" would rather pay for a nav system or Sirius Satellite Radio ..... most Yota dealers would only order 10/15% of their inventory with ABS, because they could sit for months .. same for Nissan, in 00 you could get a Altima with the side balloons, but nobody would pay the extra $600, they would rather have leather or a sunroof .... it's a market thing, not a manufacturer thing .....
Terry.
Terry.
2018 430i Gran Coupe
This is what I got in my e-mail today:
Fuji mulls Subaru minivan to be sold in U.S.
Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd. may build a Subaru minivan for sale in global markets, including the United States.
View story [SUB]
Bob
It had manufacturer plates on it, but not surprising, since I live about 10 miles from SOA headquarters.
I actually think the butt may be even less atrtractive than the nose. At least the profile and interior seem nice.
From what I have read, it is a very nice driving and comfortable unit. Also seems to be a good value (at least if you stay away from the techno stuff). I just think Sube went too far making it distinctive. Have to imagine that they could keep the basic shape while cleaning up the nose and tail a bit, and sell quite a few more.
I also saw a pic of a recent ALfa concept (upcoming on my car of the day claendar). You can really see the relationship on the nose!
2020 Acura RDX tech SH-AWD, 2023 Maverick hybrid Lariat luxury package.
Indeed, there are far more people asking for NAV on certain models than there are complaining about the lack of stability control. I'm in the latter group but we are a small minority.
Boy did we have trouble in 2002 shopping for a Camry with a manual transmission and ABS to test drive - they simply do not exist!
Bob - the service I use isn't updated with today's articles yet. Lemme check again now...nope, not yet. I'll try again tomorrow.
YIKES, though, I'd hate to see a "Crossover Sport Van" clone, please say it ain't so! I hope they mean a new minivan based on the Tribeca.
-juice
I've been seeing Tribecas as much as any other car (surprise surprise, I live in Lafayette, IN)
The butt is much uglier than the nose. The grille is actually growing on me, but it still looks pretty awkward for an SUV...... I mean, crossover. :P
The minivan market is between 400K and 500K units annually IIRC. It's been a stable market for many years. With Ford dropping out of it, there will be a slot for 30K-40K units annually for someone. Mazda is also leaving the minivan market as well - they are not going to bring the new MPV to North America. So if Subaru can have a minivan ready when Ford leaves the market, they might do OK.
Having said that I don't want to see a clone, let's see a Tribeca-based AWD minivan to compete on the sporty end of the segment. MPV doesn't offer AWD in this country and Sienna isn't really sporty, so Subaru could carve out a niche.
Found some data on operating margins, we'd mentioned Porsche was most profitable but the top 3 are:
Porsche 17.2%
Toyota 9.7%
BMW 8.7%
Those are the top 3, interesting to note that sales volume for the 3 could not be more different.
-juice
-juice
Like shooting fish in a barrel...
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I wrote about Subaru trying to educate the market about how AWD systems work... and how that might backfire. Right now, many people think AWD is AWD, no matter which company they buy from. If Subaru educates the public about their own designs, the public will start comparing systems. When that happens, many of them may come to the conclusion that Subaru's is not the best for their needs.
I listed SH-AWD and Quattro as two examples of competitive systems that might also benefit from an educated public. For whatever reason, posters here chose to attack the SH-AWD example.
Bob
Since they specify "for the global market", I have to assume it will be one of the smaller minivan's like the MPV, old Quest, or old Sienna. That's not a bad way to start. The smaller vans don't sell the same volume as the long wheelbase designs, but there's also less competition there. I think it's a good way to get their foot in the door.
The H6 engine will probably make a decent engine for such a van. As long as they find unique features to make it stand out from the crowd, this could be a bigger sales success than the Tribeca. Let's just hope it doesn't take too long to get here.
From my perspective, the nose is the killer. Though I have to say, the grille looks much better when scaled down and placed between the headlights, rather than below them. The refreshed Imprezas aren't pretty, but they pull off the new look much better.
As to size, I can see your point. My concerns here would be: (A) as you mentioned long-wheelbase versions is what the market clearly wants, not short-wheelbase minivans, and (B) a short-wheelbase minivan is more likely to cannabolize Tribeca sales than a long-wheelbase one would.
However, as you say, this might be a good way to enter that segment—as long as they don't stay there too long. Maybe do as Honda did, start with a smaller minivan, and for the next-generation model, go to the larger and much more popular LWB version.
Also, until they get a larger H-6, the shorter minivan would make more sense. Although I suspect we will see a larger and/or more powerful H-6 before we see a minivan (of any sort), so maybe that's a non-argument.
Bob
Ooohh I forgot - the new Kia Sedona will take some of that market share and the Hyundai version will as well. Don't count the Koreans out - the new Sonata is going to scare some manufacturers.
I think it will depend very much on how well Subaru is able to differentiate the van with unique features.
As for the H6... yeah, that's another reason why I'm expecting a smaller van.
IMHO, Subaru has to come out with a North American version - period if they want to be a player in the NA market. Everyone has upsized in order to sell - the Quest, the Odyssey, the Sienna.
I can understand their desire for a world platform but IMHO, a world platform isn't going to make it here in the minivan market. You'll sell some to Subaru enthusiasts and then it becomes another Baja.
Perhaps they could engineer a vanlet - like the Mazda 5 - for the global marketplace.
And I think it'd sell, too. Though its size is fine by me, Tribeca just isn't going to meet many potential Subaru customers' space needs.
the Mazda 5 is about the only player left on the smaller end (assuming the MPV goes bye bye), but it is really small, and low on power. A B9 would be close in size to an MPV, but with AWD and more HP.
Not everyone, contrary to popular opinion, wants a jumbo van. I have a new Ody, but would be happy with something a size class smaller, if it still had the comfort and performance of the Ody, while maintaining respectable cargo ahuling capacity. Sort of a bigger 5 with a 6.
The AWD is a pretty hot slice of the mini market, but only Toyota offers it, and it gets pricey (plus yo get only runflats). I bet Sube could move some units if they did it right, and probably not canabilize Tribeca sales (I'll let you in on a secret: many X-over buyers really need a mini, but won't admit it).
Sube is going to be somewhat niche no matter what they do. They won't dethrone Chrysler or Honda for mini supremecy, so they might as well do their own thing, in line with what their buyers are likely to want.
A 190" mini with AWD just might find a sweet spot. At least their isn't anyone else playing in that sandbox to compete with them.
smart manufacturers create markets/demands, they don't just copy the competition. Remember when the RX300 came out?
2020 Acura RDX tech SH-AWD, 2023 Maverick hybrid Lariat luxury package.
Rumors I've been seeing on the next Mazda minivan show it's going to grow a bit in size and possibly be shared with Ford/Mercury (since they can't figure out how to do a minivan right yet). I also saw something recently that said the '06 would be similar to the '05, even though some initial readings were hinting toward no '06 model. A 3.5L is the talk of the powerplant in the next MPV.
My guess is that Mazda is concentrating on the CrosSport concept (now confirmed to be the CX-7). To me, that essentially could be the replacement for the existing MPV.
-Brian