Are automobiles a major cause of global warming?

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Comments

  • houdini1houdini1 Member Posts: 8,356
    You would think that there are enough of those who want to pay higher taxes to just do so and get rid of the deficit. My hunch is that those who advocate higher taxes are already getting a free ride and just want the rest of us to pay more.

    Old Farmer, if you ever run for office let me know so I can vote for you.

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

  • ruking1ruking1 Member Posts: 19,826
    You will not hear this on Edmunds.com... but... it is a uncommonly common but not so common knowledge that fully 49% of the app 90 M households (300 M plus population) pay "little" taxes. It is actually a mathematical improbability to pay "NO" taxes.

    However, (even as I have probably bored a lot of folks to death on percentages of the vehicle population) it is very possible to pay an "immeasurable" % of taxation.

    What does/can affect/effect new CAR sales are (MASSIVE) direct sales tax of 9.25%, and in a bordering county, 9.75%. It dis incentivises (a depression era level of) new car sales.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    No HFC, what's next a ban on fans? They go round and round and could kill small flying insects that are vital to our survival.

    Forgive me if I am skeptical of all these findings.

    HFCs are hundreds to thousands of times more potent warming agents than carbon dioxide, the largest contributor to global warming.

    So leave my SUV alone and take my refrigerator. What kind of GHG is emitted from rotting food that should be refrigerated? Last week it was Lamb chops this week the refrigerator that keeps them fresh until eaten.

    Funny how all these CC conferences are in places like Geneva in Summer and Bali in winter. Is this a coincidence or is it just another waste of tax payers dollars?
  • oldfarmer50oldfarmer50 Member Posts: 24,328
    "...if you ever run for office..."

    Nah, wouldn't work. I can't lie and keep a straight face. :(

    2019 Kia Soul+, 2015 Mustang GT, 2013 Ford F-150, 2000 Chrysler Sebring convertible

  • avalon02whavalon02wh Member Posts: 785
    "Damn right I do, and more if we can get it."

    I'm sure the people in the other 190 plus countries are saying the same thing.

    "I expect that the people I elect to help BETTER my life not DETRACT from it."

    That is a strange way of looking at things. You actually expect politicians to create wealth or happiness???

    "If you are so full of love for the rest of the world that you want to give them all your wealth, good for you."

    It has nothing to do with love for the rest of the world. It has everything to do with the reality of an emerging middle class around the world. You might say there are too many animals at the watering hole. We have been giving money to China, KSA, Mexico and other countries for their products and oil for a long time now - nothing new there.

    "Give your money away to the world socialist movement and take a vow of poverty. But don't try to drag us down with you."

    The Europeans seem to do well with their more socialist forms of government. Survey after survey ranks them happier than the USA. Our form of government and economic system worked well when resources where plentiful and their was room to expand. That is no longer the case. People will need to adapt to the new reality. The climate bill will start us on the road to better efficiency. This is something we will need to address as the biggest upset coming in the near future will be peak oil, not climate change.
  • avalon02whavalon02wh Member Posts: 785
    http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1276/science-survey

    Think the earth is getting warmer due to human activity?
    Public 49%
    Scientists 84%

    Why the difference? I suspect part of it has to do with scientists understanding the issue better. It is also likely that many in the general public and even some scientists have a belief system that prevents them from understanding or considering the information they are receiving.
  • ruking1ruking1 Member Posts: 19,826
    ..."I suspect part of it has to do with scientists understanding the issue better."...

    I suspect there is no money in the opposite side of the issue.

    Consider this:

    IF global warming is REALLY due to the over production of C02,

    THEN there is little to no SCIENTIFIC research to use C02 as a fuel or energy source or ways to harness it. Further, if it is true, why do we brew wine and spirits (copious release of...C02), etc., etc., etc.. ? If it is as "toxic" as they say: why is C02 STILL being put into SODA !!!!! Why are the floodgates of say bio diesel from algae, (carbon NEUTRAL) not getting the full court press of tax deductions, subsidy, tax credits etc. There is not one SINGLE engine that is certified for bio diesel to past B5 to B100.

    Considering the blood sweat and tears it took for "the round earth" concept to leak out AND more importantly the TIME it took to get folks out of "the world is flat mind set"; I see the current GW ing effort as a return TO "the world is flat mindset" and with its former consequences to those who DARE to even hint at an alternate view.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Why the difference? I suspect part of it has to do with scientists understanding the issue better.

    Much simpler explanation. It is where the pay check comes from. And then only a handful of highly paid scientists really push the bunk about man made GW/CC. The data is just not there. And the cooling trend across the globe is the best evidence that increased CO2 has little or no effect. I'm on the side of the majority of scientists that don't believe Al Gore and his money grabbing cronies with their agenda of One World government.

    just google: 31000 scientists against global warming

    Thousands of scientists sign petition against global warming
    by Charles Biggs

    It’s about time that liberals like Al Gore come up with a new crisis. Global warming (climate change) is running out of steam.

    Bob Unruh of WorldNetDaily reported that 31,000 U.S. scientists - 9,000 with doctorate degrees in atmospheric science, climatology, Earth science, environment and other specialties - have signed a petition rejecting global warming.

    The list of scientists includes 9,021 Ph.D.s, 6,961 at the master’s level, 2,240 medical doctors and 12,850 carrying a bachelor of science or equivalent academic degree.

    Global warming assumes that human production of greenhouse gases is destroying the Earth’s climate.

    According to the petition, “There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing, or will in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate.

    “Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth.”


    http://www.tulsabeacon.com/?p=462

    The Petition Project www.petitionproject.org has been underway for 10 years. It’s a gradual movement but it was spurred on by the release of Gore’s “documentary” An Inconvenient Truth.

    Gore’s movie claims there is a “consensus” and “settled science” about human-caused global warming. It was particularly unsettling because teachers all across the country showed the movie to students to indoctrinate them in global warming.

    “Unfortunately, Mr. Gore’s movie contains many very serious incorrect claims which no informed, honest scientist could endorse,” said project spokesman and founder Art Robinson.

    Robinson said Gore’s folly has gone so far that it is damaging people’s lives.

    “The campaign to severely ration hydrocarbon energy technology has now been markedly expanded,” he said. “In the course of this campaign, many scientifically invalid claims about impending climate emergencies are being made. Simultaneously, proposed political actions to severely reduce hydrocarbon use now threaten the prosperity of Americans and the very existence of hundreds of millions of people in poorer countries,” Robinson said.

    Is this politics versus science? Yes. Which is more dangerous, Gore’s false claims or the policies that spring from his deception?

    Liberals blame global warming for recent shark attacks off the shore of California, typhoons, earthquakes and just about any natural disaster.

    And the effort is aimed at the pocketbook of every American.

    Our federal government is close to an international agreement that would ration our use of energy. The targets are coal, oil, natural gas and other organic compounds.
  • polljimmypolljimmy Member Posts: 6
    What this means to the average US citizen is lowering our standard of living.
    It will not affect people, that are allowed to have a carbon footprint as large as they like. With a Global Government, we will be brought down to the living standard of those in Africa, India and China.
  • oldfarmer50oldfarmer50 Member Posts: 24,328
    "...You actually expect politicians to create wealth or happiness???..."

    Heck no. Nor would I expect them to properly manage the extra money that Cap and Trade brings in. It would be squandered much the same as your regular taxes are now.

    The only thing I expect from politicians is that they get out of my way so that I can create wealth and happiness.

    "...You might say there are too many animals at the watering hole..."

    Good analogy. What happens to an animal at that watering hole that steps aside and lets the others drink? She dies of thirst and so do her offspring.

    Nature and nations are alike. The world is not a Disney film even if we wish it was. :(

    2019 Kia Soul+, 2015 Mustang GT, 2013 Ford F-150, 2000 Chrysler Sebring convertible

  • larsblarsb Member Posts: 8,204
    Oh dear lord......talk about paranoia.........

    "The Black Helicopters are coming !!!!"

    "Global governance" of pollution is a GOOD idea, not a bad one. Getting all the countries to reduce their pollution and waste can NEVER be painted as a bad thing.

    No one is talking about "global governance" as in "one WORLD government which controls all the countries in every facet" - that is idiotic and impossible and not anything anyone needs to waste time worrying about, much less waste server space on Edmunds talking about.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 58,576
    Global governance of pollution still seems to neglect holding the pet developments of globalists (Chindia et al) to any level of accountability. So far it seems to be little more than a scheme to make doing business more expensive in the first world, little more.

    "We shall have World Government, whether or not we like it. The only question is whether World Government will be achieved by conquest or consent."

    Criminal heir James Warburg, while speaking before the United States Senate, February 17, 1950
  • larsblarsb Member Posts: 8,204
    In regard to controlling pollution with one cooperative treaty:

    I'm not saying it could work, given all the cooperation problems.
    But if it COULD work, it's not a bad idea.

    As far as "One World Government": about as likely as aliens taking over the planet.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 58,576
    That's an "if" the size of Jupiter. Given the desires of many involved, I will have to see it to believe it. Seems like a good scheme to benefit business interests in locations allowed to be environmental criminals, while feigning giving a damn about mother Earth.

    Globalized economics is the first step towards one world government. The EU is a small scale experiment in one world government - and there now some nations there are panicking and changing their structures to ward off a loss of sovereignty caused by recent EU power grabs. It will be attempted more in the future
  • larsblarsb Member Posts: 8,204
    Well, we all got 99 problems and worrying about a "world government" should never be one of them.....:)
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    A cooperative treaty will only be a burden on the few countries that adopt it. Look at the total failure of Kyoto. All those flakes that signed on and NOT ONE country achieved the goals set out by Kyoto. China and India the two most populace Nations have said NO to the new improved Treaty. So where does that leave US? I can tell you, just like the UN we will be paying most of the bills for all these criminal types to have conferences in luxury hotels in exotic locations. Laughing their a**es off at the ignorant sheep paying the bills.

    Cap n Trade will run even more businesses out of the US into the arms of China. Al Gore does not give a hoot. He has a mansion, jet and 100' house boat with a $100 million for fuel. He is not trying to run a business with a bunch of leeches telling him his toilets are not up to code or he has to completely revamp his factory to meet the new tougher regulations. Sounds good unless you were one of the people working there when he says screw it, I cannot afford to do business in the USA.

    That is just one aspect of why the whole climate bill is bad for America.

    If you have a global governing body. They can dictate anything they like which makes it a one World Government. We have Friends in Greece in the Government. They are trying to rid themselves of the Euro and all the crap the EU is trying to pull.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    A lot of us didn't meet our New Year's Resolutions either. :shades:

    I'll see your Kyoto and raise you Montreal.

    (I'll believe one world government when I see California simply put together a budget).
  • ruking1ruking1 Member Posts: 19,826
    (I'll believe one world government when I see California simply put together a budget).

    Actually it is a model.... OVERSPEND OVERSPEND OVERSPEND...under deliver....
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    A one World government seems far fetched when you look how messed up CA is. It will have to be a Putinesque type dictatorship. Tomorrow we shut down all the casinos. You want to gamble go to Siberia.

    Same goes for all these CC ideas. In the USA they will be attacking the tax payers standard of living and I don't think they will keep voting someone in that wants to take away their cars and comfortable homes. If people think their civil liberties are trounced on by the Patriot Act, they are in for one rude awakening if Cap N Trade gets a foot hold. We are already seeing the effects of CA mandates on power. Higher utility bills with mandatory cut backs in usage. Usage over 354 KWH per month are doubled then over 460 KWH per month are quadrupled in price. According to the SDG&E bill I am holding in my hand, I am using 40.4% less this year than last. That is only because it is so much cooler this year than last. Yet the CC Wonks won't accept they are full of you know what with their hockey stick data. I know what I would do with that hockey stick if I had Al Gore here.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    "Most people don't appreciate that the computer on your desk is contributing to global warming and that if its electricity comes from a coal power plant it produces as much C02 as a sports utility vehicle," said Bill St. Arnaud of Canarie, a Canada-based internet development organization.

    "Some studies estimate the internet will be producing 20 percent of the world's greenhouse gases in a decade. That is clearly the wrong direction. That is clearly unsustainable," added St. Arnaud.


    http://edition.cnn.com/2009/TECH/science/07/10/green.internet.CO2/index.html

    Let me get this straight. It would be less polluting for me to be cruising around the back country in my SUV than sitting here blogging on this computer? I love when one of these egghead types tell us what is "unsustainable". Well who gives up their computer first? Or do we go door to door pulling people out of their homes and caning them as an example to the rest? When will these CC cult types come to the realization that people emit CO2 in everything they do. Unless they want mass genocide it is going to increase more and more and more. If you believe the hype. Move to higher ground.

    Here is a question. How many trees do we save by getting our news from the Internet vs the newspaper? Which produces more GHG processing paper and printing or reading from a computer screen?
  • avalon02whavalon02wh Member Posts: 785
    Can we get real here for a second. You are quoting a source called the WorldNetDaily.
    http://www.wnd.com/
    Have you actually gone to there web site? The headlines are the most mind boggling dribble I have ever seen.

    You don't want to talk about global warming. You want to talk ideology.

    Global Warming is real.
    Humans are making their mark.
    What is the percent impact, 25%, 50%, 75%????
    The percent is important because it will help us determine how much money we spend on reducing things like CO2 emissions or how much we use to deal with the impacts of climate change like drought, heat and ocean level increases.
    I do not see all the countries coming together on this issue unless there is a disaster.
    Peak resources or the inability to supply enough primary energy to everyone will likely hit us sooner then some of the worst climate change impacts.

    When the far left looks at us in the middle they lump us with the right. When the far right looks at us they lump us with the left. Both groups should be kicked out of the sandbox. :P
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Global Warming is real.
    Humans are making their mark.
    What is the percent impact, 25%, 50%, 75%????
    The percent is important because it will help us determine how much money we spend on reducing things like CO2 emissions or how much we use to deal with the impacts of climate change like drought, heat and ocean level increases.


    What is your point? Now the Internet is going to double our GHG emissions in a decade. Since the beginning of man, we have coped with the problems as they hit us. Why all of a sudden do we need to cope with a theoretical problem that is maybe 100 years from now or maybe never. It is a scam and you my friend have bought into it.

    Build on a rock high above the masses. That is what I have done. Look out for your self. You are never going to convince 7 billion people to give up what they have worked all their lives to attain. And that is exactly what CnT is all about. Taking from the middle class and giving to the elite that run this global economy. Can't take from the poor they have already beat them down to nothing.

    PS
    So you are saying those 31,000 scientific voices are all paid dissenters? I don't buy it. You are trying to claim that the group of scientists that you are part of are more honest than the 9000+ PHDs that do not buy into the MM/CC scam.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    It seems that the CC consensus is crumbling before our eyes. The bullies in the cult are being forced to debate the science and falling short on facts to back up their outlandish claims of gloom and doom.

    "Last weekend we could understand better why Wong [Australian Senator Penny Wong, Minister for Climate Change and Water] is no longer keen on data on surface and atmospheric warming. NASA's Aqua satellite - one of the four main measurements of world temperature - found June had dropped back to just .001 degrees above the average for the past 30 years."

    Read the whole piece.


    image

    http://www.climatescienceinternational.org/
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    MEDIA RELEASE - INDIA JUSTIFIED TO IGNORE CLIMATE ALARMISM
    India right to put development ahead of appeasing climate activists, says scientist

    Important Elements of India’s Climate Change Plan Wins Support from Canada

    The recently announced National Action Plan for Climate Change indicates a new sign of independence among Indian political class to recognise domestic energy priorities over international hysteria on climate change.

    With the approach of India’s Independence Day, this view has been expressed by expatriate Indian climate scientist, Dr. Madhav L. Khandekar, now living near Toronto, Canada.

    Read whole release as it appeared in India.

    South African scientist, Dr. Kelvin Kemm, writes in South Africa's Engineering News:"This Indian report was music to my ears. I have constantly said that developing countries cannot afford to let their school children do homework at night by candle light rather than by electric light, in an effort to save on electricity production, on the basis of the flimsy evidence presented in favour of man-induced climate change." Read Dr. Kemm's whole piece. Dr. Kemm has an MSc and PhD (Nuclear Physics) and is a Business Strategy Consultant and Nuclear Power policy developer and CEO, Stratek Business Strategy Consultants, Pretoria, South Africa.


    New Zealand not convinced by flawed science as well.

    CLIMATE CHANGE: AUSSIE SENATOR STEVE FIELDING SAYS AL GORE IS WRONG

    Posted 14 July 2009

    "THIS is the chart climate change sceptic Family First Senator Steve Fielding hopes will convince environmental campaigner Al Gore that global warming is not real.Senator Fielding is trying to score a one-on-one meeting with Mr Gore, who is in Australia promoting several environmental causes, to prove to him that climate change sceptics are right.


    http://nzclimatescience.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=493&Itemid- =1
  • ruking1ruking1 Member Posts: 19,826
    Nothing a sentence to Siberia would not cure !! ... Or of late, a North Korean "LABOR" camp ;) :lemon: (they should turn them into environmental tourist traps. ( "ECO TOUR", no pun intended)
  • ruking1ruking1 Member Posts: 19,826
    No one (ECO types) has EVER intergrated the natual "oxymoron" that just wonderful paradise's, like HAWAII, New Zealand, etc, etc., are products of dormant and not so dormant volcanos that spew untold, unmeasured, unmitigated, NATURAL pollution 24/7, 365, decades, millenium, M and B of years, eons/aeons......

    The nearest auto comparison I can make is getting a felony ticket for going 25 mph when light speed is 186,000 miles per sec. For those that need an apples to apples comparison that is 25 mph vs 671,000,000 miles per hour.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Where is the "CAP THE VOLCANO" bill at in our lame brain Congress? They would rather screw the middle class tax payers than mess with Pele.
  • avalon02whavalon02wh Member Posts: 785
    "Since the beginning of man, we have coped with the problems as they hit us."

    That is certainly one approach - wait to see what happens and deal with it as it arrives. Personally, I would prefer we understand the issue first. We may want the option to try to mitigate some of the impacts.

    "Why all of a sudden do we need to cope with a theoretical problem that is maybe 100 years from now or maybe never."

    If you notice from my previous posts I am not advocating too many solutions at this point. The actions I would like to see are rather low key and very long term (decades). I do not advocate shutting down coal power plants, nor do I recommend any quick changes to the auto fleet. I am actually encouraged by the options we now have and will have in the transportation sector (hybrids, diesels, electric cars, powerful yet fuel efficient 4 cylinder cars...).

    I am also encouraged by other developments like this:
    http://www.psc.state.nd.us/consinfo/GraphicsJuly2008/WindGraphicFinal7-15-08.pdf-

    You do realize that by calling climate change a theory you are admitting it is a fact - just like the theory of gravity. :shades:
    http://www.bringyou.to/apologetics/p67.htm
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I don't think anyone would argue that Climate does not Change. It is how much man influences the change that is being theorized about. I have no problem with making long term changes to better use our natural resources. Working to keep our air, water and environment cleaner is good. That is not what people like Al Gore and Barry Obama want to do. They want to start as soon as possible putting additional taxes on all the energy we use. Not a week goes by that something else we do is worse than the week before. It is eco terrorism aimed at the simple minded populace. Using lies about polar bears dying etc etc. This is what the future looks like for the USA with the current trend in legislation.

    image
  • avalon02whavalon02wh Member Posts: 785
    "Researchers Find that CO2 Forcing Alone Doesn’t Explain Magnitude of Ancient Global Warming Episode"
    http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/07/petm-20090715.html#more

    Translation: more study is needed and it could get a lot worse..

    "New Molecule Could Lead to New CO2 Capture Methods"
    http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/07/tossell-20090715.html#more

    Will the cure be worse than the disease?

    "DOE Takes Another Step Toward $2.4B FutureGen Project "
    http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/07/doe-nepa-20090715.html#more

    I am glad to see the project is moving forward. I also thought one of the posters had an interesting comment:
    "...but as a resident of Alaska who is acutely aware of the accelerating effects of pronounced warming in the arctic (e.g. arctic ocean losing its ice pack at an alarming rate, permafrost thawing, coastal villages washing away, spruce forests destroyed by insects now able to winter over, etc. etc.) your promise of a coming ice age is laughable."
  • avalon02whavalon02wh Member Posts: 785
    "This is what the future looks like for the USA with the current trend in legislation. "

    The comic was funny because it actually has things reversed. When I ride my bike I usually watch the faces of the drivers. The number of stressed drivers out there is actually rather disturbing. While on the bike I'm in casual mode. A move over into the slow lane comment is much more likely from the hummer driver.

    FYI - riding a bike is much more fun, especially on those nice sunny days. I would also recommend checking out an electric bike if you have hills or a long distance to work. :)
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    You should look at the bright side. With less ice in the Arctic it will make oil exploration easier. It may even open up travel across the Arctic ocean. We can capture the methane that is now trapped in the tundra. As far as the Spruce trees the Feds sold them off to the Japanese decades ago. The Spruce beetle is their problem.

    As much as man would like to make the earth a static entity, they are not going to do it. The earth is always changing, and there is little we can do to stop it. Heck we cannot even stop the wind, let alone the climate 100 years from now.

    I was walking through our lovely Balboa Park last Tuesday. There was trash lying in the bushes everywhere. We should start by eliminating people that pollute on purpose. When we get that down we can go after those that do it as a consequence of surviving. We start with the most illusive of pollution and don't bother with the mundane.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I love riding my bike. We live in a very hilly area and the roads are narrow and rough. Makes for scary riding. I go off road mostly.

    The China thing emphasizes the futility with cutting CO2. The less we produce the more they will produce. They are 50 years behind US standard of living wise. Stopping them from having what we have will be impossible. The less we use the more for them and India. China has passed US in vehicle purchases the first half of 2009. That is 7 years before it was projected to happen. The third World wants what we have flaunted the last 50 years on TV. I have a hard time blaming them. It is human nature you are trying to change. Not the climate.
  • ruking1ruking1 Member Posts: 19,826
    I also think we have been sold a faulty and bad assumption, dare I say almost schzoid, that we (USA) have to slip into self imposed arrested decay for countries like India, China, etc. to progress. Not only is it wrong headed, it is outright dangerous to national security, if the so called "oil importation percentage" going up is any indicator.

    Of course there is another level of schzoid in the oil importation metric. As we so called "seek to bring the oil importation percentage down": we systematically cut off domestic drilling which would... allow domestic oil supplies.... or aka, actually bring DOWN the oil importation percentage !!!??? :lemon: :shades:
  • avalon02whavalon02wh Member Posts: 785
    "Stopping them from having what we have will be impossible."

    That is probably true. The only thing that will slow them down is higher energy prices. Even increased coastal flooding may not make much of an impact. They are rather good at making millions move as in the case of Three Gorges Dam.

    I still think we can set a better example. Does it cost anymore to buy a four cylinder Camry or a six cylinder? The four gets better mpg, costs thousands less over its lifetime and also reduces the amount of CO2 emitted by almost a ton a year. There is no good reason for buying the six. Yet, people are so ego driven that they think they need 265 hp in their family sedan. They don't.
  • avalon02whavalon02wh Member Posts: 785
    "we systematically cut off domestic drilling which would... allow domestic oil supplies.... or aka, actually bring DOWN the oil importation percentage !!!??? "

    Restrictions are not the issue. The number of drilling rigs is dropping. Why? I has to do with the price of oil. Here in North Dakota the number of rigs dropped and people were laid off. Did the state government suddenly stop drilling in the Middle Bakken? No. It was the under $50 oil that stopped the drilling. Domestic oil production is dependent on the price of oil. Even if we opened up ANWR and some additional offshore drilling we would not see an impact now or in the next ten years.

    As I mentioned before, the higher oil prices in the future will likely have a bigger impact on CO2 emissions than any cap & trade legislation. What I do not know is when we will see $100 plus oil. My best guess is the summer of 2010.

    Over the last year I have changed my mind about Global Warming. The thing that changed it was $147 a barrel oil. At that price the global economy started misfiring. In the next few years we might be able to tell how much CO2 emissions decreased because of the downturn.
  • ruking1ruking1 Member Posts: 19,826
    No, that is a particularly short sighted view. The reasoning indicates the absolute INVERSE is happening !! OPEC was formed for the purpose of making the prices as high as possible (in a given market) . The argument is @ best a strawman. OIl went from an interesting $147 per barrell to mid 40's, all within a very compressed time frame. It happened when demand was cut back only 3%. Now a cut back of 3% in the context of 104% growth per year is still a 1% growth rate !!!!!!??? Bloomberg market hack indicates a barrel of oil is @ $63.25.

    So in that sense, they have for multiple decades followed this strategy and the % of oil importation has grown to 70%. (or so they say) Indeed the price of oil is higher than its ever been (historically high) and guess what? Oil importation is @ 70% (even higher) . Indeed European importation is higher than that and they have even HIGHER at the pump fuel prices !!!! You can repeat this short sighted argument untill we start to import upwards of 90% of the oil and then...what would you have then accomplished!!??

    So very simply, if you want to increase oil importation, follow the present strategy (ever increasing prices and taxation) . Believe it or not.... it works!!!
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    If the US government was not so anal about oil exploration the Oil companies would be more inclined to drill and cap wells until the price goes up. Personally I would rather use up Middle East oil first and save the best for last. If we wait till we are in dire straits as we were in the 1970s as you say it takes 10 years to develop a field. Yet another oil find in the USA announced this week.

    Lynn Helms, director of the state Department of Mineral Resources, said recent production results from 103 newly tapped wells in the Three Forks-Sanish formation show many that are “as good or better” than some in the Bakken, which lies two miles under the surface in western North Dakota and holds billions of barrels of oil.
  • ruking1ruking1 Member Posts: 19,826
    Another thing that is not discussed much is the potential for Arctic drilling... now that certain parts are not iced over. Russia or whatever they call themselves now have been particularly aggressive in staking claims. In addition, our Navy over many decades has actually mapped Arctic's Ocean floor and the land mass. So if anyone knows the potential, certainly we do.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    "While we've seen some algae bloom from time to time, we really haven't seen something quite like this."

    The color, in particular, didn't make sense, he said. You might expect to see green or reddish algae but not this black, viscous gunk. Whitledge, with the university, said one possible explanation is that the algae has partially decomposed into a darker hue.

    He looks forward to the university examining the sample too, to identify exactly what kind of algae it is.

    It's worth noting that Alaska Natives in the region reportedly hadn't seen anything like it before, he said.

    But asked if the blob's surprise appearance could be connected to global warming, Whitledge hesitated to draw a link.

    "The water's actually very cold this year compared to other years," he said.


    Why is the ice in the Arctic melting if this is a cold year? Or is the ice melting just a story made up by "the cult"?
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    SAN DIEGO -- A new independent analysis by a nonprofit environmental group finds San Diego has the most solar roofs and greatest solar- power capacity in place statewide.

    Environment California ranks San Diego No. 1 in its California's Solar Cities report released earlier this month, according to The San Diego Union-Tribune.

    Ten years ago, San Diego wasn't even among the top 10 solar cities in the state. Today, San Diego has 2,262 solar roofs that together can generate 19.4 megawatts of electricity, the Union-Tribune reported.

    "San Diego has just basically woken up to its potential," said author Bernadette Del Chiaro.

    Los Angeles ranked second this year with 1,388 solar roofs, while San Francisco was third with 1,350 solar roofs.

    Del Chiaro and San Diego city officials told the Union-Tribune three things contribute to San Diego's solar success: lots of sunshine, City Hall's fast-track permitting for solar projects and the Kearny Mesa headquarters of the California Center for Sustainable Energy. The center promotes solar projects through government rebates and other means.

    One such program is set to launch this fall, designed to allow San Diego homeowners to obtain 20-year loans for installing solar projects. The loans will be repaid through their property tax bills.


    http://www.10news.com/news/20072199/detail.html
  • avalon02whavalon02wh Member Posts: 785
    Take a look at the graph on this page. What do you see?

    http://www.nrdc.org/air/transportation/images/aoilpolicy2_2.gif

    How about the graph on this page???

    http://www.peakoil.nl/wp-content/uploads/2007/02/consumption_production.png

    Consumption is the issue. We will never drill our way out of this. ANRW only has about 16 billion barrels of oil. The USA will use it up in 5 years.

    The good news about this is that CO2 emissions can only go so high.
  • avalon02whavalon02wh Member Posts: 785
    "Personally I would rather use up Middle East oil first and save the best for last."

    Curious, why do you think the oil in the U.S. is the best?

    Funny you should mention Lynn Helms. I have seen his presentations on energy. I have also had the opportunity to talk with him. We are both in the North Dakota Geological Society.
    http://ndgeosociety.tripod.com/

    In one presentation, Lynn made the comment that there is no "easy button".

    I am familiar with the work being done on the Three Forks-Sanish Formation. One of the issues we face here is the ability to ship the oil out. The pipelines are full. New pipelines are being added. It will take some time before they can get full potential from the fields.

    There was also an issue of being able to put ND oil on the pipeline going from Canada (oil sands) to the gulf refineries.
    http://www.downstreamtoday.com/news/article.aspx?a_id=14765

    It is also important to keep in mind that ND is only producing about 200,000 barrels a day. We will never be a large producer (1 million plus barrels a day).
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Consumption is the issue. We will never drill our way out of this. ANRW only has about 16 billion barrels of oil. The USA will use it up in 5 years.

    I know you know better than that. The Prudhoe field was estimated at 9 billion barrels in 1970. Oil started flowing in 1977 from that field. It is still flowing 32 years later. ANWR would be providing a steady flow of oil for decades. It is physically impossible to get 16 billion barrels from the Arctic to the market in 5 years.

    Your first graph does not take into consideration the fact that we have gone down by 3% over the last year. That would put an entirely different slant on that fictitious graph.

    Sadly it is just that kind of computer analysis and graphs that has perpetuated the whole business of man made GW/CC. And it is that, a business with $Billions at stake.

    PS
    If we could transport one million barrels per day from ANWR it would take close to 50 years to use up that oil.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I think the oil in the US is best because we are in control of it. Using Saudi oil at $50 per barrel is preferable to using ND or AK oil at $50 per barrel. When the price rises it is money in the bank for US.
  • avalon02whavalon02wh Member Posts: 785
    Global warming is likely to increase the chance of drilling in the Arctic. Many countries are staking out claims in the arctic. Even Denmark will be establishing a Military command. And while I think countries will start drilling in the arctic once the price goes up, it is likely that the drilling will be difficult.
    "Arctic fantasies need reality check"
    http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/business/story.html?id=bfda2108-bf06-- 4a53-9c45-20b5eb36a34a&k=63243
  • avalon02whavalon02wh Member Posts: 785
    "US Secretary of Transportation Says Reducing Vehicle Miles Traveled Necessary for Substantive CO2 Reduction from Transportation"
    http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/07/us-secretary-of-transportation-says-redu- cing-vehicle-miles-traveled-necessary-for-substantive-co2-re.html#more

    I think the only thing that will limit VMT is the price of fuel. High prices will limit driving especially with low income folks. I do not see us doing what China does - forcing people to drive on alternate days. Car with XYZ123 can drive on odd days and ABC246 can drive on even days. Of course people with even plates get screwed when you have a month that ends in 31. That would be two days in a row the car would be parked (31 & 1). :(
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I am not convinced higher MPG relates to people driving less. I would think just the opposite. As far as every other day driving. If you live where it is that congested you need to move elsewhere. Say North Dakota where the jobs are plentiful and the highways empty. :shades:

    The guy with the Prius driving 20k miles per year is more of an environmental problem than me and my Sequoia doing 5000 miles per year. I still like the tax per mile idea. You get to 10k miles and the mileage tax doubles. Double it again at 20k miles. They do that with Water, Gas and electricity around here. Why not miles of use on our highways?
  • ruking1ruking1 Member Posts: 19,826
    A completely ignored, utter, total fantasy.

    Fine you say we will never drill our way out of this. The flip side is also as easy, we will never SAVE our way out of this. You would think the enviro types would be DANCING in the streets on the "bankruptcies" of the Big Four !! That would be that many cars no longer produced domestically. And what in your own words did the democratic president actually do?? Let me clue you , ONLY because you like to pronounce things in total isolation, he didn't say: lights out, the par tays over, now did he??? Perhaps you can tell us who are the par tays new majority/minority owners? As in dot.gov and the UAW!!??? So do you really believe their fondest hopes are to lose money and lots of it???

    EPA even laments that we can literally save 23% just by allowing conversion to higher populations of passenger diesel vehicles. This does NOT include the 20-40% diesel fuel advantage !!! On the other hand IAW the EPA, CARB's and the state of confusion, (CA) the population of DIESEL cars has been regulated to LESS than 2%.
  • ruking1ruking1 Member Posts: 19,826
    Quality control issues... imagine that !!??

    Fast-Selling 2010 Camaro Suffering From Quality-Control Issues?
This discussion has been closed.

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