Edmunds Members - Cars and Conversations

roadburner

jmonroe1 said:

roadburner said:

A guy I follow on Substack asked readers to list their favorite books that they read over the past year along with books that they look forward to reading. Here's my list:
Resurrection Walk and The Waiting by Michael Connelly- After almost 35 years of working in the criminal justice system I still enjoy reading about it.

The Dublin Murder Squad Series, The Searcher, and The Hunter by Tana French- I love British and Irish detective novels.

The Secret Hours by Mick Herron- Herron’s sly black humor infuses his novels. The Slough House series and its tv adaptation (Slow Horses) are must read/watch for me.

Inside Mercedes F1: Life in the Fast Lane by Matt Whyman- It satisfies my inner car geek.

Fast Fords by Jeremy Walton- I read Jeremy Walton’s books for decades and we ended up becoming friends when I started writing for Roundel magazine. He lives across the pond so we rarely meet in person.

In the queue:

The King of Late Night by Greg Gutfeld- my wife and several of my friends think Gutfeld and I were separated at birth; I consider that to be a high honor.

Sports Car and Competition Driving by Paul Frere- a mandatory re-read; Retirement 2.0 begins on January 5th, and I plan to get back into instructing track driving in a few months.

————————————————
I’ve never been a big book reader (or a little book reader either for that matter) but now you’ve got me interested. Which one of those books has the most pictures?

jmonroe

Inside Mercedes F1, Fast Fords, and Sports Cars and Competition Driving.

roadburner

@snakeweasel said:
Again BMW has the M340i as a M series car with the 3.0 liter 6 cylinder turbo over the 2.0 liter 4 banger the 330I has and the pictures they have of the M340i has the M badge on it. SO I will go by what I see on BMW's website.

But BMW M doesn’t think so, as only real M car owners are allowed into the inner sanctum. But I do agree BMW has diminished the exclusivity of the M brand. Many people now believe M stands for Marketing.

snakeweasel

driver100 said:

Independent Probability
Each lottery ticket has the same odds of winning no matter how many you buy. Each one has independent probability not altered by the frequency of play or how many other tickets you bought for the same drawing.

I take that as each ticket has a 1 in 302 million chance of winning.
It isn't like heads and tales....every ticket has variable numbers. Every ticket, is independent of the other tickets.

You are misapplying independent probability. Independent probability states that each game is independent of any previous games. In applying that to the lottery it means that any number has equal chance of coming up in the lottery regardless of how often or recent the number has come up before. Now to really blow your mind if the odds of one set of numbers coming up is 1 in 302 million the odds of the same set of numbers coming up twice in a row is 1 in 302 million. It is not addressing the change in the odds of winning with additional chances in the same game.

Your odds of winning boil down to number of outcomes that would make you a winner divided by the number of all possible outcomes. That is why you have better odds of picking the flip of a coin than you do with a roll of the dice.

jmonroe1

roadburner said:

jmonroe1 said:

roadburner said:

A guy I follow on Substack asked readers to list their favorite books that they read over the past year along with books that they look forward to reading. Here's my list:
Resurrection Walk and The Waiting by Michael Connelly- After almost 35 years of working in the criminal justice system I still enjoy reading about it.

The Dublin Murder Squad Series, The Searcher, and The Hunter by Tana French- I love British and Irish detective novels.

The Secret Hours by Mick Herron- Herron’s sly black humor infuses his novels. The Slough House series and its tv adaptation (Slow Horses) are must read/watch for me.

Inside Mercedes F1: Life in the Fast Lane by Matt Whyman- It satisfies my inner car geek.

Fast Fords by Jeremy Walton- I read Jeremy Walton’s books for decades and we ended up becoming friends when I started writing for Roundel magazine. He lives across the pond so we rarely meet in person.

In the queue:

The King of Late Night by Greg Gutfeld- my wife and several of my friends think Gutfeld and I were separated at birth; I consider that to be a high honor.

Sports Car and Competition Driving by Paul Frere- a mandatory re-read; Retirement 2.0 begins on January 5th, and I plan to get back into instructing track driving in a few months.

————————————————
I’ve never been a big book reader (or a little book reader either for that matter) but now you’ve got me interested. Which one of those books has the most pictures?

jmonroe

Inside Mercedes F1, Fast Fords, and Sports Cars and Competition Driving.

————————————————-
Thanks, I’ll get one of those. I hope it’s good for coloring too.

jmonroe

oldfarmer50

laurasdada said:

Geez, now you're gonna claim that a Mustang Mach E isn't really a Mustang!

I was going to mention that as an example of the bastardization of iconic names.

snakeweasel

qbrozen said:

@kyfdx said:

If you have 2 numbers out of 300 million, your chances of winning are 1 in 150 million.

If you have 10 numbers, then 1 in 30 million.

If you have 150 million numbers out of 300 million, your chances are 1 in 2. 50/50.

That’s exactly the way it works.

No, it really isn’t. Each of those tix does not have a 1:150M chance. Let’s try a smaller example. Let’s say you have a carton of 12 eggs. 11 white and 1 blue. Blindfolded, you have to pick the blue. On your first chance, you have a 1 in 12 shot. On your 2nd chance, what do you think your odds are? I promise you it isn’t 1 in 6.

In your example if you pick 1 you have a 8.33% chance of picking the blue egg.

If you are allowed to pick 2 eggs you know have a 16.67% chance of one of those two eggs being blue

if you are allowed to pick three 25.00% of one of those being the blue one and so on and so forth.

driver100

snakeweasel said:

qbrozen said:

@kyfdx said:

If you have 2 numbers out of 300 million, your chances of winning are 1 in 150 million.

If you have 10 numbers, then 1 in 30 million.

If you have 150 million numbers out of 300 million, your chances are 1 in 2. 50/50.

That’s exactly the way it works.

No, it really isn’t. Each of those tix does not have a 1:150M chance. Let’s try a smaller example. Let’s say you have a carton of 12 eggs. 11 white and 1 blue. Blindfolded, you have to pick the blue. On your first chance, you have a 1 in 12 shot. On your 2nd chance, what do you think your odds are? I promise you it isn’t 1 in 6.

In your example if you pick 1 you have a 8.33% chance of picking the blue egg.

If you are allowed to pick 2 eggs you know have a 16.67% chance of one of those two eggs being blue

if you are allowed to pick three 25.00% of one of those being the blue one and so on and so forth.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you have one chance of winning in 302million, and you buy 2 tickets, your odds of winning don't double.
The two tickets have very different numbers, the fact you have twice as many tickets doesn't mean you have doubled your chance. Even if there was one ticket sold and you had one ticket, what are the odds you will get the 6 numbers correct?
If you bought 2 tickets you have 2 chances, but you still need to get the correct 6 numbers.
The numbers make for thousands of possible outcomes.
You only have a fraction of a better chance of winning....not double....IMHumbleOpinion.

Michaell

Blah, blah, blah.

A ticket in CA had the winning numbers, last night. The next jackpot starts over at $20M. Same odds, of course.

kyfdx

qbrozen said:

@kyfdx said:

If you have 2 numbers out of 300 million, your chances of winning are 1 in 150 million.

If you have 10 numbers, then 1 in 30 million.

If you have 150 million numbers out of 300 million, your chances are 1 in 2. 50/50.

That’s exactly the way it works.

No, it really isn’t. Each of those tix does not have a 1:150M chance. Let’s try a smaller example. Let’s say you have a carton of 12 eggs. 11 white and 1 blue. Blindfolded, you have to pick the blue. On your first chance, you have a 1 in 12 shot. On your 2nd chance, what do you think your odds are? I promise you it isn’t 1 in 6.

They aren’t sequential picks. You aren’t buying a ticket for two separate drawings.

Roulette wheel has 38 numbers. If you cover two of the numbers with bets, what is your chance of winning on a single spin? It’s 1 in 19.

🙄

jmonroe1

snakeweasel said:

qbrozen said:

@kyfdx said:

If you have 2 numbers out of 300 million, your chances of winning are 1 in 150 million.

If you have 10 numbers, then 1 in 30 million.

If you have 150 million numbers out of 300 million, your chances are 1 in 2. 50/50.

That’s exactly the way it works.

No, it really isn’t. Each of those tix does not have a 1:150M chance. Let’s try a smaller example. Let’s say you have a carton of 12 eggs. 11 white and 1 blue. Blindfolded, you have to pick the blue. On your first chance, you have a 1 in 12 shot. On your 2nd chance, what do you think your odds are? I promise you it isn’t 1 in 6.

In your example if you pick 1 you have a 8.33% chance of picking the blue egg.

If you are allowed to pick 2 eggs you know have a 16.67% chance of one of those two eggs being blue

if you are allowed to pick three 25.00% of one of those being the blue one and so on and so forth.
————————————————
How bout this? If you pick all 12 and you’re not careful and you end up dropping 1, what are the odds it will be the blue one?

jmonroe

tjc78

@Michaell said:
Blah, blah, blah.

A ticket in CA had the winning numbers, last night. The next jackpot starts over at $20M. Same odds, of course.

We won $2.

sda

All this odds talk. I'm exhausted. Next subject...

driver100

kyfdx said:

qbrozen said:

@kyfdx said:

If you have 2 numbers out of 300 million, your chances of winning are 1 in 150 million.

If you have 10 numbers, then 1 in 30 million.

If you have 150 million numbers out of 300 million, your chances are 1 in 2. 50/50.

That’s exactly the way it works.

No, it really isn’t. Each of those tix does not have a 1:150M chance. Let’s try a smaller example. Let’s say you have a carton of 12 eggs. 11 white and 1 blue. Blindfolded, you have to pick the blue. On your first chance, you have a 1 in 12 shot. On your 2nd chance, what do you think your odds are? I promise you it isn’t 1 in 6.

They aren’t sequential picks. You aren’t buying a ticket for two separate drawings.

Roulette wheel has 38 numbers. If you cover two of the numbers with bets, what is your chance of winning on a single spin? It’s 1 in 19.

🙄


But there are a fixed number 38 numbers 38.
A lottery draw has 6 numbers and probably 1000s of various combinations.
Each ticket has one chance of being right.
Where is Einstein when I need him?

The next draw is only for a measly $20 million....hardly worth waiting in line to buy a ticket.

driver100

jmonroe1 said:

snakeweasel said:

qbrozen said:

@kyfdx said:

If you have 2 numbers out of 300 million, your chances of winning are 1 in 150 million.

If you have 10 numbers, then 1 in 30 million.

If you have 150 million numbers out of 300 million, your chances are 1 in 2. 50/50.

That’s exactly the way it works.

No, it really isn’t. Each of those tix does not have a 1:150M chance. Let’s try a smaller example. Let’s say you have a carton of 12 eggs. 11 white and 1 blue. Blindfolded, you have to pick the blue. On your first chance, you have a 1 in 12 shot. On your 2nd chance, what do you think your odds are? I promise you it isn’t 1 in 6.

In your example if you pick 1 you have a 8.33% chance of picking the blue egg.

If you are allowed to pick 2 eggs you know have a 16.67% chance of one of those two eggs being blue

if you are allowed to pick three 25.00% of one of those being the blue one and so on and so forth.

————————————————
How bout this? If you pick all 12 and you’re not careful and you end up dropping 1, what are the odds it will be the blue one?

jmonroe

Not sure but one will be scrambled!

imidazol97

I had 2 numbers on 10 tickets worth $20. That's $20 I'll never see again.

Michaell

imidazol97 said:

I had 2 numbers on 10 tickets worth $20. That's $20 I'll never see again.

Does everyone know how their state spends the lottery money they collect? In Colorado, it goes to preserving open space.

stickguy

Driver, interesting hill to die on! the huge odds (1 in 302 million or whatever it is) means there are 302 million unique combinations that can be made on a ticket. Just like a roulette wheel but bigger! so if you but 302 million tickets without duplicates, you have every number set.

Michaell

stickguy said:

Driver, interesting hill to die on! the huge odds (1 in 302 million or whatever it is) means there are 302 million unique combinations that can be made on a ticket. Just like a roulette wheel but bigger! so if you but 302 million tickets without duplicates, you have every number set.

The price of a single ticket for MegaMillions (or is it Powerball? one or the other) is set to increase to $5, from the current price of $2/ticket.

driver100

stickguy said:

Driver, interesting hill to die on! the huge odds (1 in 302 million or whatever it is) means there are 302 million unique combinations that can be made on a ticket. Just like a roulette wheel but bigger! so if you but 302 million tickets without duplicates, you have every number set.

I am not an expert at this and don't claim to be, that is the first ticket I have bought in 5 to 10 years, and I don't gamble and I know zero about it. But, I doubt 302 million is the number of combinations. $302 million is the amount of prize money left.....the state takes a percentage which they spend on various things, a percentage goes to pay expenses to run the lottery, and a percentage goes to the winner. 302 million has nothing to do with the number of combinations....that is my guess.

corvette

Soooo, my 100-series Bosch dishwasher (purchased in early 2020) is still going strong, at almost five years old.

xwesx

corvette said:

Soooo, my 100-series Bosch dishwasher (purchased in early 2020) is still going strong, at almost five years old.

That's disappointing, corvette. I was really hoping to hear a thrilling tale of searching out the best deal, for the best washer, only to have it unavailable within a 200-mile radius from your location. At which point.... ROAD TRIP! But, then you get home, and there was a fresh snowfall, and then you couldn't park where you wanted to because it was just slippery enough that the Maverick wouldn't stay put in that spot. You compromised, moved a little further down the driveway, and used a hand truck. But, then it slipped on the ice after you had the appliance on it, and it started rolling off down the hill.....

explorerx4

@corvette,
My lawn mowing post fell flat, but I tried.

jmonroe1

Michaell said:

stickguy said:

Driver, interesting hill to die on! the huge odds (1 in 302 million or whatever it is) means there are 302 million unique combinations that can be made on a ticket. Just like a roulette wheel but bigger! so if you but 302 million tickets without duplicates, you have every number set.

The price of a single ticket for MegaMillions (or is it Powerball? one or the other) is set to increase to $5, from the current price of $2/ticket.

————————————————
Wow, I didn’t know that. If the jack-pot doesn’t go up commensurably, somebody is stealing. Which doesn’t surprise me when governments get involved. That’s why It shouldn’t surprise anyone why I do my best to cheat when I do my taxes.

FWIW, I don’t think that jacked-up increase will hurt participation very much, if at all. Especially on the larger pots.

jmonroe

jmonroe1

corvette said:

Soooo, my 100-series Bosch dishwasher (purchased in early 2020) is still going strong, at almost five years old.

————————————————
You get an attaboy for trying to get this site back on topic.

jmonroe

Michaell

Sadly, I have no painting updates today.

I’ve been told that the rest of the trim in the primary bedroom, and some of the doors throughout the house, are scheduled to be painted tomorrow.

snakeweasel

driver100 said:

snakeweasel said:

qbrozen said:

@kyfdx said:

If you have 2 numbers out of 300 million, your chances of winning are 1 in 150 million.

If you have 10 numbers, then 1 in 30 million.

If you have 150 million numbers out of 300 million, your chances are 1 in 2. 50/50.

That’s exactly the way it works.

No, it really isn’t. Each of those tix does not have a 1:150M chance. Let’s try a smaller example. Let’s say you have a carton of 12 eggs. 11 white and 1 blue. Blindfolded, you have to pick the blue. On your first chance, you have a 1 in 12 shot. On your 2nd chance, what do you think your odds are? I promise you it isn’t 1 in 6.

In your example if you pick 1 you have a 8.33% chance of picking the blue egg.

If you are allowed to pick 2 eggs you know have a 16.67% chance of one of those two eggs being blue

if you are allowed to pick three 25.00% of one of those being the blue one and so on and so forth.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you have one chance of winning in 302million, and you buy 2 tickets, your odds of winning don't double.
The two tickets have very different numbers, the fact you have twice as many tickets doesn't mean you have doubled your chance. Even if there was one ticket sold and you had one ticket, what are the odds you will get the 6 numbers correct?
If you bought 2 tickets you have 2 chances, but you still need to get the correct 6 numbers.
The numbers make for thousands of possible outcomes.
You only have a fraction of a better chance of winning....not double....IMHumbleOpinion.

But if you have two chances of winning you have twice as many chances of winning, hence your odds are double. Of course it goes from a 0.00000033% to a 0.00000066% so its practically null be it one or two tickets.

stickguy

I did ship today. Not cars sadly. But we did test drive a couple of elipticals. That is turning out to be way harder to pick than I expected. With one frustration is it is almost impossible to find most of them to try out. And given size and cost, not easy to return if you don’t like them!. And like a lot of stuff, the jump from more basic stuff $1,000) to the fancier stuff ($3/5k) is quick and harsh. And the internal debate about not wanting cheap junk you won’t use or that falls apart, vs paying a bunch for capacity you will never use

stickguy

Also, read enough reviews and you will never buy anything.

snakeweasel

Michaell said:

imidazol97 said:

I had 2 numbers on 10 tickets worth $20. That's $20 I'll never see again.

Does everyone know how their state spends the lottery money they collect? In Colorado, it goes to preserving open space.

It goes to whatever the politicians, or more accurately the special interest groups who influence the politicians, want it to. So Colorado says the money goes to preserving open space, I will bet you that the funds from the general fund that went to preserving open spaces has dropped by a similar amount.

snakeweasel

Michaell said:

stickguy said:

Driver, interesting hill to die on! the huge odds (1 in 302 million or whatever it is) means there are 302 million unique combinations that can be made on a ticket. Just like a roulette wheel but bigger! so if you but 302 million tickets without duplicates, you have every number set.

The price of a single ticket for MegaMillions (or is it Powerball? one or the other) is set to increase to $5, from the current price of $2/ticket.

That's great news, that means every drawing I save even more money by not playing the lottery.

snakeweasel

driver100 said:

stickguy said:

Driver, interesting hill to die on! the huge odds (1 in 302 million or whatever it is) means there are 302 million unique combinations that can be made on a ticket. Just like a roulette wheel but bigger! so if you but 302 million tickets without duplicates, you have every number set.

I am not an expert at this and don't claim to be, that is the first ticket I have bought in 5 to 10 years, and I don't gamble and I know zero about it. But, I doubt 302 million is the number of combinations. $302 million is the amount of prize money left.....the state takes a percentage which they spend on various things, a percentage goes to pay expenses to run the lottery, and a percentage goes to the winner. 302 million has nothing to do with the number of combinations....that is my guess.

Lets see there are 5 numbers picked from 1 to 70 and then one more mega ball that is between 1 and 25. So the calculation would be 70!/(5!x(70-5)!) X 25 which comes to 302,575,350 possible combinations.

jmonroe1

snakeweasel said:

driver100 said:

stickguy said:

Driver, interesting hill to die on! the huge odds (1 in 302 million or whatever it is) means there are 302 million unique combinations that can be made on a ticket. Just like a roulette wheel but bigger! so if you but 302 million tickets without duplicates, you have every number set.

I am not an expert at this and don't claim to be, that is the first ticket I have bought in 5 to 10 years, and I don't gamble and I know zero about it. But, I doubt 302 million is the number of combinations. $302 million is the amount of prize money left.....the state takes a percentage which they spend on various things, a percentage goes to pay expenses to run the lottery, and a percentage goes to the winner. 302 million has nothing to do with the number of combinations....that is my guess.

Lets see there are 5 numbers picked from 1 to 70 and then one more mega ball that is between 1 and 25. So the calculation would be 70!/(5!x(70-5)!) X 25 which comes to 302,575,350 possible combinations.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Close enough. That's almost what I got too.

jmonroe

corvette

"Close" only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades...

driver100

snakeweasel said:

driver100 said:

snakeweasel said:

qbrozen said:

@kyfdx said:

If you have 2 numbers out of 300 million, your chances of winning are 1 in 150 million.

If you have 10 numbers, then 1 in 30 million.

If you have 150 million numbers out of 300 million, your chances are 1 in 2. 50/50.

That’s exactly the way it works.

No, it really isn’t. Each of those tix does not have a 1:150M chance. Let’s try a smaller example. Let’s say you have a carton of 12 eggs. 11 white and 1 blue. Blindfolded, you have to pick the blue. On your first chance, you have a 1 in 12 shot. On your 2nd chance, what do you think your odds are? I promise you it isn’t 1 in 6.

In your example if you pick 1 you have a 8.33% chance of picking the blue egg.

If you are allowed to pick 2 eggs you know have a 16.67% chance of one of those two eggs being blue

if you are allowed to pick three 25.00% of one of those being the blue one and so on and so forth.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you have one chance of winning in 302million, and you buy 2 tickets, your odds of winning don't double.
The two tickets have very different numbers, the fact you have twice as many tickets doesn't mean you have doubled your chance. Even if there was one ticket sold and you had one ticket, what are the odds you will get the 6 numbers correct?
If you bought 2 tickets you have 2 chances, but you still need to get the correct 6 numbers.
The numbers make for thousands of possible outcomes.
You only have a fraction of a better chance of winning....not double....IMHumbleOpinion.

But if you have two chances of winning you have twice as many chances of winning, hence your odds are double. Of course it goes from a 0.00000033% to a 0.00000066% so its practically null be it one or two tickets.

.....and that is the real point. I think both answers are right in their own way. But, it is deceiving people to say you have twice as much chance of winning if you buy two tickets. You have a miniscule better chance......in fact the odds are much greater that you are going to lose $2s instead of $1.

driver100

snakeweasel said:

driver100 said:

stickguy said:

Driver, interesting hill to die on! the huge odds (1 in 302 million or whatever it is) means there are 302 million unique combinations that can be made on a ticket. Just like a roulette wheel but bigger! so if you but 302 million tickets without duplicates, you have every number set.

I am not an expert at this and don't claim to be, that is the first ticket I have bought in 5 to 10 years, and I don't gamble and I know zero about it. But, I doubt 302 million is the number of combinations. $302 million is the amount of prize money left.....the state takes a percentage which they spend on various things, a percentage goes to pay expenses to run the lottery, and a percentage goes to the winner. 302 million has nothing to do with the number of combinations....that is my guess.

Lets see there are 5 numbers picked from 1 to 70 and then one more mega ball that is between 1 and 25. So the calculation would be 70!/(5!x(70-5)!) X 25 which comes to 302,575,350 possible combinations.

Thanks, that explains that!

mjfloyd1

@jmonroe1 said:
————————————————-
Thanks, I’ll get one of those. I hope it’s good for coloring too.

jmonroe

I have a funny feeling that you are not good at staying inside the lines😇😎

mjfloyd1

@corvette said:
Soooo, my 100-series Bosch dishwasher (purchased in early 2020) is still going strong, at almost five years old.

Our Bosch 500 series is 22 yrs old and still quiet and working well. We did have a electronic board replacement under warranty but still..

What are the odds that we will move on from the lottery talk?🤣

ab348

corvette said:

Soooo, my 100-series Bosch dishwasher (purchased in early 2020) is still going strong, at almost five years old.

My 300-series is supposed to arrive on Jan. 9th. Hopefully it will be scheduled better than my new rear entry door, which HD told me to expect delivery of between Dec. 16th and Dec. 29th. I checked the HD site yesterday for a status update and it still shows "order received" from the day that I bought it, but nothing in the "in transit" column yet.

ab348

stickguy said:

Also, read enough reviews and you will never buy anything.

The high prices of self-torturing devices is a new topic for us here. I prefer dishwasher talk...

kyfdx

stickguy said:

I did ship today. Not cars sadly. But we did test drive a couple of elipticals. That is turning out to be way harder to pick than I expected. With one frustration is it is almost impossible to find most of them to try out. And given size and cost, not easy to return if you don’t like them!. And like a lot of stuff, the jump from more basic stuff $1,000) to the fancier stuff ($3/5k) is quick and harsh. And the internal debate about not wanting cheap junk you won’t use or that falls apart, vs paying a bunch for capacity you will never use

Home exercise equipment never seems to be worth the cost. Cheap stuff will turn out to be useless. Expensive stuff you never get your money's worth. I consider those luxury items. (though, nothing wrong with that, if that is where you want to spend your money)

Easy for me to say. I have a Planet Fitness that is 1.5 miles away, and the cost is zero.

driver100

mjfloyd1 said:

@corvette said:

Soooo, my 100-series Bosch dishwasher (purchased in early 2020) is still going strong, at almost five years old.

Our Bosch 500 series is 22 yrs old and still quiet and working well. We did have a electronic board replacement under warranty but still..

What are the odds that we will move on from the lottery talk?🤣

Speaking of lotteries........................

driver100

Actually, the Florida tennis guys said...if you won the $1.2 billion in New York state they would claim 11% as state tax....that's a fair bit of cash, and not pay any state tax if you won in Florida
OK, that's it for lottery talk for me, unless there are requests for more.

cdnpinhead

stickguy said:

Driver, interesting hill to die on! the huge odds (1 in 302 million or whatever it is) means there are 302 million unique combinations that can be made on a ticket. Just like a roulette wheel but bigger! so if you but 302 million tickets without duplicates, you have every number set.

This is true, of course, but commercial lotteries always rake off up to 50% of the take for whatever the "cause" is. It's as if you put money on all 38 spots on the roulette table, and the croupier immediately took all the bets from 15 to 19 of the numbers. This is why lotteries are the worst possible way to gamble. Short of counting cards in blackjack, craps on the pass line with double odds is the best game, with only a 0.7% house edge, relative to the 35-50% cut in lotteries.

qbrozen

@kyfdx said:
They aren’t sequential picks. You aren’t buying a ticket for two separate drawings.

Roulette wheel has 38 numbers. If you cover two of the numbers with bets, what is your chance of winning on a single spin? It’s 1 in 19.

🙄

You didn’t answer my question.

Fine, you want to change the example. No, your chances are not 1 in 19. They are 2 in 38. If you want to look at each, while taking into account your other bet, you’ve got 1 in 37.

Maybe payouts help here.
Sticking with the wheel. You put down $1 looking for a $38 payout. 38:1. So I get back $39 in my hand. If I put down two $1 bets and hit, I get $39 on one bet and lose the other. So I get $38 in my hand. That means I wound up with a net of 37:1. In your calculation of 1 in 19, I would only get 19:1.

If that still doesn’t sink in, I give up. I’ll leave with the same thing I have to say to the wife: yes, dear.

snakeweasel

@cdnpinhead said:
This is true, of course, but commercial lotteries always rake off up to 50% of the take for whatever the "cause" is. It's as if you put money on all 38 spots on the roulette table, and the croupier immediately took all the bets from 15 to 19 of the numbers. This is why lotteries are the worst possible way to gamble. Short of counting cards in blackjack, craps on the pass line with double odds is the best game, with only a 0.7% house edge, relative to the 35-50% cut in lotteries.

The lottery is the worst bet you can make. With the current $20 million pot and the odds being what they are a $2 bet on the mega millions has a projected payout of 3.3 cents. Not good at all.

stickguy

I like having the machine right in the basement so I can use it quick when I have free time. Getting motivated to drive over to the Y is a lot less likely. And my wife is intimidated by a gym, and is really unlikely to get up early to drive over! Now, if we were retired, might be a different story!

suydam

We started going to a personal trainer many years before we retired. It takes the intimidation factor out of the gym. And as my daughter used to say, “so basically you’re paying someone to make sure you show up.” Exactly!

kyfdx

It isn’t a gambling problem, it’s a math problem

2/38 = 1/19

Math doesn’t change just because the numbers are bigger.

I know the average person is bad at math, but I’m still in awe of how convinced they are of the wrong answer. 😕

stickguy

I like the personal trainer idea. I have never done the gym and really could use someone to show me what to do. I can go do it by myself if I get directions!

snakeweasel

qbrozen said:

@kyfdx said:

They aren’t sequential picks. You aren’t buying a ticket for two separate drawings.

Roulette wheel has 38 numbers. If you cover two of the numbers with bets, what is your chance of winning on a single spin? It’s 1 in 19.

🙄

You didn’t answer my question.

Fine, you want to change the example. No, your chances are not 1 in 19. They are 2 in 38. If you want to look at each, while taking into account your other bet, you’ve got 1 in 37.

Maybe payouts help here.

Sticking with the wheel. You put down $1 looking for a $38 payout. 38:1. So I get back $39 in my hand. If I put down two $1 bets and hit, I get $39 on one bet and lose the other. So I get $38 in my hand. That means I wound up with a net of 37:1. In your calculation of 1 in 19, I would only get 19:1.

If that still doesn’t sink in, I give up. I’ll leave with the same thing I have to say to the wife: yes, dear.

Wait if I place a $1 bet on a number and get $38 plus my original $1 for a total of $39 then all I would have to do is place a $1 bet on every number for a total of $38 and one of them will pay off $39 and I'll be a buck ahead. I'm going to the casino right now.

Ok lets really look at the roulette game. there are 36 numbers plus 0 and if you are playing a Vegas table 00. They payouts are based on 36 numbers not the whole 37/38, the zero and double zero are the house edge. if you place $1 on a number and it hits you walk away with $36 (your original bet plus $35) giving you a 36:1 odds. if you place $1 on two different numbers and one of them hits the winning number will give you the total of $36 and the losing number will give you nothing meaning you come away with $36 on $2 worth of bets or a 18:1 payout ($18 for every $1 bet).