The Stock Market and Investing

gagrice

My son has a 4s with an OtterBox case. Gives it a little more weight and a LOT of protection. He dropped it off the roof of a two story building he was working on. No damage works fine. He plans to give it to his wife and get a Galaxy III to replace another Samsung that has all his contacts on a Sim card. Likes Android better and bigger screen. Got the iPhone as a package before he left Alaska. They used it with Google maps all the way to find cheapest gas and hotels. Worked great. His wife likes the iPhone best.

houdini1

I bought quite a bit of aapl today at around $634. Some time ago I sold all my aapl stock at $600. and made a nice chunk of change. It has been my biggest money maker this year so we will see how this latest move works out.

cyclone4

Houdini,

Great to hear from you. I believe in all my heart, that you will be very happy by purchasing AAPL today. Nothing has really changed with the bottom line for Apple. I still think that it will reach $750 by the end of the year and probably go to a $1,000 in 2013.

gagrice

I consider Laptop Magazine the best source for honest appraisals of all things computer. If you are looking at what phone to get. The two top contenders are matched up. You may be surprised at the winner.

http://blog.laptopmag.com/apple-iphone-5-vs-samsung-galaxy-s-iii-smartphone-shoo- tout

cyclone4

I am impressed by this study. It was well done and it does seem to be unbiased.

Tony should now rush to the Apple Store and buy the iPhone 5 . The problem is there is a 3-4 week wait from what I have been hearing.

gagrice

I have almost decided to get the Galaxy 7.7 with 4G LTE from Verizon. It can be used on a month to month basis when I travel. It has the full Google maps with all the POI. I will wait to get the reviews on the iPad Mini. If it has GPS 4G LTE and available month to month I will check it out. You can rest assured I will not camp out in front of an Apple store to get any device. Those I consider to be brain dead people.

Glad you liked the review. I thought it very informative and unbiased.

anthonyp

Hi Charlie

Think of the money I am saving but as far as Verizon is concerned , I am paying for a data package, so they don`t care....

I`m enjoying the fall colors up in N C and I`l get on this when I get back...I`l check out the iPhone again and if they don`t have one, I`l save some more money and maybe just get the phone and be done with it ..That would thoroughly upset Verizon and Apple wouldn`t even know about it Tony

ljflx

Interesting story in todays NY Times. I really find this incredible and I believe it's just hubris to take advantage of the upcoming elections and if its not that its blatantly stupid. The government, sometimes in the form of state, sometimes the feds, is suing the banks for deeds done by the troubled and nearly bankrupt investment banking firms and banks that they (the more secure banks) took over in the financial crisis. Now in a normal business mode this would be legitimite and proper. But in these cases the banks were begged by the government, in some cases forced by it, to buy the troubled businesses. The takeovers saved the government and by that us as tax payers, billions of dollars as the FDIC didn't have to put out money for their $250K guarantees. But the Government won't say that as it doesn't want to portray Wall street as a rescuer so the lawsuits portray an opposite stance in which the government is attacking Wall street, something that will resonate well with the general population that doesn't understand or know the details about the takeovers. Hence the reason why it may be hubris that plays into various elections and especially the presidential one. What also makes this so hypocritical is the government on its takeover of GM dismissed any liabilities GM had or might accrue for actions before the takeover. So how on earth can it do the opposite with the banks that had nothing to do with the beforehand actions of the acquired banks, partiularly when they were reluctant to acquire them, and only did so at the governments urging and in many cases forcing. This sets a tone that boards in the future will simply say no to such acquisitions no matter how much pressure the government applies if such a situation happens again (and it will at some pont). Stupid, stupid stupid.

Great comment from the author in the article below:

If you ran a company, would you help participate in a bailout if you thought there was a chance the government might turn around and sue you later for the misdeeds of the company you’re helping to save?

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/10/15/nowadays-wall-street-saviors-may-wish-the- - - - - - - - - - - - y-werent/?ref=todayspaper

ljflx

From todays NY Times a story about the fall of the BlackBerry as the iPhone and android phones just ate it up. Even the White House is switching to iPhones.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/16/technology/blackberry-becomes-a-source-of-sham- - - - - - e-for-users.html?_r=0

Here's another story on Apple's upcoming announcement of the iPad mini. Apparently it's going to be another major product upgrade announcement of a lot more than the mini and this is probably the cause of the stock being up nearly 1.5% so far today. I've read that Apple has asked for production of more than 10mln iPad minis for the 4th quarter. I don't know if Wall street has this baked into estimates but at a supposed price of $299 - $349 that's just another mere $3bln + of revenue for less than 2 months.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11738354/1/apple-to-announce-new-mac-mini-rumor.h- - - - - - tml?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

Microsofts Surface looks sexy on the TV commercials I've seen. I think this is more of a threat to the android larger tablets than the iPad. First gen will have the office suite included but will not have an intel processor. I can see the business community moving toward this tablet and Microsofts strategy may be to get that market and any consumers that buy it is gravy.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-tablet-surface-start-499-152121228.html

ljflx

Great market day but we need strong numbers from IBM after the bell to keep this rally going. Let's see what we get.

Edit: Good numbers from Intel but a disappointment on IBM from a revenue standpoint.

cdnpinhead

that corporations totally unrelated to handheld devices could have anything to do with advancing the economy?

Just asking.

cyclone4

Len,

That Blackberry article is rather hilarious but true. I enjoyed reading it.

Our stock stumbled a little today, but I'm thinking we saw the lows early yesterday. I hope we get some exciting news on the 23rd and a great earnings report on the 25th.

houdini1

I have been following this also and about the only thing that comes to my mind is that it is true that there is no honor among thieves.

In many ways these were extreme sweetheart deals for the acquiring banks, or they thought so at the time. I don't believe for a minute that they made those acquisitions to help out the gov. and taxpayers. They literally made billions on those deals.

I also don't believe that Jamie Dimon and his hordes of lawyers did not think about some sort of hold harmless agreement similar to the GM deal. I just think the price was so good that they took a gamble without one.

Even if they pay out billions in these suits they will still come out ahead, so I feel little pity for them.

What does seem unfair is that the scoundrels who actually committed the fraud will apparently get off scot free. I don't understand why the gov. could not draw them back in some way and include them personally in the lawsuits.

gagrice

What does seem unfair is that the scoundrels who actually committed the fraud will apparently get off scot free. I don't understand why the gov.

This administration with Eric Holder as AG is so tightly intertwined with the thieves, justice is unlikely to happen. GW Bush and company convicted over 1200 white collar criminals, including over 100 CEOs. Obama and Holder are at ZERO. Bill Clinton nailed 100s of Wall Street and S&L crooks. This is the most corrupt administration in the last 70+ years.

cyclone4

Well, so much for seeing the lows for AAPL on the 15th. This is getting annoying, but I still feel very confident that Apple will once again take off and reach new highs. I am hoping that the news on the 23rd and also the earnings report on the 25th are both very positive.

anthonyp

Charlie----I know it is tough to hold through these types of declines....One never knows what is really going on...

Just in the last two days, I have eaten in a Mac Donalds and a Chick Filet..There is a world of difference between the two.....The Mac was sort of worn out, and the workers bordered on rude or non caring....I got a quarter pounder, and they charged twenty cents for the one small piece of lettuce and twenty more for a very small slice of tomato.....All without me knowing it....The Chick Filet was clean and the workers accommodative , and the chicken sandwich came as advertised .....No surprise Mac stock is declining.. They need a shakeup

The Apple store was modestly busy, but no phone 5, and the Verizon store about the same way.....Business activity is bustling everywhere.....

Apple just has a problem getting their product available, which I think shows they were not ready to launch, but did so because of the competition.....I think this will pass , and I am going to take a chance and trade it this quarter......so when I finish this I am going to take the very small position in the trading account....:) That means a buy.. Tony

cyclone4

Tony,

I know what you mean about Mac Donald's. On my long road trips, I typically have been stopping there for lunch. Their help has deteriorated.

I bet you are. Doing the right thing buying AAPL. on basically a $100 break. You will be rewarded.

ljflx

This weeks Apple announcement on the iPad mini is shaping up to be a pretty robust product announcement and may include a larger iPad replacement for the current one. The announcement of the mini is hurtung Amazon and B&N today. If Amazon has earnings problems, look out below.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/apples-huge-itunes-revamp-rumored-154901207.html;_- ylt=AgUljsv6.PFRo60cIa.HlzWr3YdG;_ylu=X3oDMTNoOXU4NzZoBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEluZmluaX- RlIEJyb3dzZSBTcGxpdARwa2cDZGFlOGE1MTItNDljOS0zOTk5LTg1MDktYzk2ZGM1YzY4Mjc3BHBvcw- NsNwRzZWMDbWVkaWFpbmZpbml0ZWJyb3dzZWxpc3R0ZW1w;_ylg=X3oDMTJuOTY4OXI3BGludGwDdXME- bGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDMDczMzgzZWEtMGJlZC0zOWUxLWFkZTctN2U5MmRlMmEzOGRiBHBzdGNh- dANuZXdzBHB0A3N0b3J5cGFnZQ--;_ylv=3

Microsoft Windows 8 may prove hard for many who are used to windows 7 and earlier. It's set up more for a tablet and mobile device than a PC apparently. It's also a "one size fits all" design. Risky. Glad I sold it a while back as soon as it dipped under $30. But I could have gotten over $32 if I was more zealous. This is a good article on windows 8 that made the front page of todays NY Times.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/22/technology/windows-staple-of-most-pcs-gets-a-m- ajor-makeover.html?ref=todayspaper&_r=0

anthonyp

Well Charlie, it is all over for me, and that was quicker than I expected.....Tony

cyclone4

Do you mean you already took profits? If so, it never hurts to do so.

anthonyp

Yes....I thought it would go up closer to earnings date, but maybe it just had a relief rally....It went up another four points from where I sold it, but in this day and time, a small profit is what the game is all about , in my case.....I sure admire you all who have bought and held over the past year or two....You`v made a lot of money , but you sure have earned it That is a tough stock to hold.....Tony

ljflx

Read a story today that hedge funds were trying to drive it down to $600 to both flush out as many people as possible and create a buying opportunity. The product announcement meeting being bigger than the iPad mini must have scared them off.

cyclone4

Len,

All I can say about Windows 8 after reading this article is that I am very happy I did away with my Dell laptop and bought the new MacBook Pro with retina display. I absolutely love it.

Today's big up day in AAPL was nice to see for us investors, but after what happened last week, I am not going to make any predictions. I thought we saw the low (about $623) early last week and then all hell broke loose. But obviously, the almost $25 gain today and additional gains on the after hours trading, is likely due to anticipation of important announcements tomorrow.

I am also of the opinion that the earnings report on Thursday will be bullish. I bet that there have been more iPhone 5's sold in the last 9 days of September than most are expecting. I also think the argument that supply constraints is a reason for the sell-off is foolish. As you often stated, when the demand is greater than the supply, it is positive for the stock and not negative. After it is all said and done, there will be a record number (by a big amount) of new iPhones sold. Now we also have the iPad Mini and who knows what else in 2013.
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The future is still very bright for Apple and this will be proven in the coming months. How many times have analysts in the past 5 years predicted a top for AAPL? So, these analysts that predicted a top for Apple when it reached $705 will also be dead wrong. I still believe there is an incredible amount of manipulation taking place with this stock.

cyclone4

Well, things looked fine with Apple as most of the event was taking place. Then, as soon as the price of the Mini iPad was announced at $329, the stock started to plummet once again. Interestingly enough, Gene Munster (prior to the event) was hoping that Apple would price the Mini at between $330-350. His reasoning is that there will be a lot less cannibalization on the full size iPad at this price range. But most traders (manipulators ) thought otherwise and AAPL plummeted. I think I will go to sleep and wake up in the spring of 2013. I believe I will be very happy when I wake up at that time.

anthonyp

I just think there are tax considerations going on, more competition, and a host of thoughts about the election....along with a global deterioration almost everywhere...Genuine concerns....You can always expect ten or more point swings from the traders--no matter what...so the manipulation isn`t what it use to be.

Apple has the products, but imo rushed the 5...They can always pull a `rabbit` out the hat with the upcoming earnings...Len knows how ..

Business is busy where I am, and that should eventual be seen by the market....Like I said the other day ` You guys sure earn your money with the aapl investment` and deserve all you get every penny Tony

ljflx

NY Times on the Microsft Surface. They love the hardware but are critical of the software, which should have been Microsofts strong suit on this.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/technology/personaltech/microsoft-unveils-the-- - surface-its-first-tablet-review.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper&gwh=B6EAA6892A953F066E- - BBD19FC2CF6BDD

ljflx

I think it's hedge funds looking to dump high flier high quality stocks like Apple and Google and to get back in at a lower entry point. Had Apple priced the mini at $299 they'd have sold off saying the price was too low. The better analysts were concerned if Apple priced at $299 rather than the premium brand $329 to even $349 price. Tax considerations are going to be big as we approach year end if Obama gets in and keeps preaching the suicidal tax increase. If Romney gets in the worry is going to be over Bernanke's replacement. With disappointing earnings vs ambitious analysts estimates there's not much good news to propel the market. Strong Balance Sheets and tremendous cash hoards are being foolishly overlooked as are low multiples.

gagrice

It could take years to catch up with the Apps available for the iPad. It helps to have 100 million iPad App buyers out there.

gagrice

What will they buy with the money? iPad 4 or iPad mini?

People rushing to swap out their slates before the resale rates plummet contributed to a staggering 1015 percent increase in NextWorth’s iPad trade-ins on Tuesday. NextWorth wasn’t the only reseller slammed with demand; Gazelle reports that they made more than 140,000 iPad trade-in offers yesterday, which resulted in trade-in volumes more than 700 percent higher than the norm.

Which iPads the masses were handing in may be even more interesting than the sheer volume. Both sites report that around 70 percent of all iPad trade-ins consisted of the Retina-sporting iPad 3, which launched a scant seven months ago. That took even the professionals by surprise.

“Unexpectedly, the most popular model being traded in right now is the iPad 3 32GB with Wi-Fi, which we’re attributing to the announcement of a new, 4th generation iPad,” Anthony Scarsella, Gazelle’s chief gadget officer, told us via email. “Normally the upgrade cycle for the iPad is over 1 year.” The announcement of the new and improved iPad 4 so soon after the iPad 3 blindsided everybody, Scarsella went on to say.

The big question, of course, is what those legions intend to do with their newly found cash. Will they plunk it down on an iPad mini or an iPad 4? Given the glut of iPad 3 trade-ins, it’s looking like the iPad 4 will be a big mover when it starts shipping on November 2nd.

http://blog.laptopmag.com/apple-announcement-causes-tablet-trade-in-surge-mass-i- pad-3-exodus

anthonyp

There is a good article in the N Y Times----Where people don`t Die or close to that....It doesn`t touch your life story, but I think you will enjoy it

Len---I also think the crosscurrents are so pronounced and `many` that it will just have to work itself out......After all as you said---when there is more demand for a product than the product ---that`s good.....What a crock `hedge funds`.....:) Tony

ljflx

People are nuts. The iPad 3 is great and the incremental improvements to this new one are not worth trading the iPad 3 in to get it. The mini would be a downgrade. Regardless - get ready for seeing line-ups outside Apple stores once again for both products.

gagrice

You got that right, people are nuts. It is like a drug addict trying to get a little bit higher than last time. I can see going from the iPad 2 to the iPad 4. I wonder if the faster processor is that noticeable? Sounds like it caught the used iPad buyers as off guard as you and I. Taking that kind of loss to get the mini makes no sense either. Might as well have both. Maybe there is a welfare program that buys anyone an iPad if they cannot afford it. :sick:

gagrice

Disgruntled early adopter/tech writer.

Again, that’s going to change with the iPad 3. Before the event ended, Gazelle.com was willing to give me $550 for my 64GB Verizon LTE iPad 3. That’s nearly $300 less than I paid seven months ago. In a normal, yearly cycle, a $300 loss might be acceptable. After just seven months (I’m still within Apple’s original warranty period), it’s harder to stomach. Right before publishing this article, I decided to check Gazelle again. Now, the company is offering just $350 for a 64GB LTE iPad 3. I refuse to take a $500 loss to upgrade to a new device.

Moreover, what aftermarket actually exists for the iPad 3? The iPad 4 sells for the same price new. It also features enhanced specs, more LTE options and importantly, the new Lightning connector. Who would buy the iPad 3 over the iPad 4 unless there was a significant difference in price?

http://mashable.com/2012/10/23/ipad-3-owner-oped/

anthonyp

Does anyone have any thoughts on Facebook? Primarily the future of it ? Tony

robr2

I've been dollar cost averaging FB for the past few weeks and got a nice bump last week when it jump 24% percent. It settled at a 15% increase but I believe the market felt confident in the results they released.

Recommendation trends are buy and strong buy with a target price of $30-48. I plan to continue buying every week until there's some reason not to. Then again, the market could decide to beat it into submission on a whim which seems to be what happens today.

cyclone4

Then again, the market could decide to beat it into submission on a whim which seems to be what happens today.

You hit the nail on the head Rob. The market has been very illogical. For example, how can a stock like AMZN rally on a lousy earnings (lost money) report and AAPL be hammered when Apple added another $8-10 billion to its cash hoard. That is ridiculous in my opinion. I realize that the market does not necessarily follow logic, but come on. How "stupid" can it get? I sold 40 shares of AAPL prior to the earnings report at $619 on my broker account and I re-bought 20 shares back at about $595 on Friday. I will ride it out.

Good luck with Facebook!

Btw, I wish all of you living in the area of the Northeast (especially Len who lives about 30 miles southwest of NY City) all the best with Sandy. This SOB of a storm is very weird in its track and characteristics. Unfortunately it has strengthened to 90mph max sustained winds since it has been over very warm 80 degree surface water temperatures of the Gulf Stream overnight and this morning. The 90 mph winds have been occurring only to the southwest of the eye so far but some of this will spread to the north of the eye as well prior to landfall. The eye will likely make landfall in southern NJ to the south of Atlantic City. The problem with this system is that it has an incredibly large windfield and also moving rather slowly.

anthonyp

Thanks Robr 2

My grandson has five thousand dollars, and wanted to buy stocks.....We went through the details, and I thought he would be better off with aapl....but he sort of wanted fb.....He said he thought fb may charge say 5$ , and he would go along with that, as he uses fb all the time to stay up with his buddies.....I mentioned there was still possibly some stock to come from lockup etc...

You know how it is--it could turn out to be the winner of all times .....

Right now he is going to buy aapl, but if fb soars, I`l probably have to make up the difference Again thanks Tony

carnaught

Btw, I wish all of you living in the area of the Northeast (especially Len who lives about 30 miles southwest of NY City) all the best with Sandy.

Totally, Amen to that.

cyclone4

Some good news:

The eye of Sandy fell apart prior to landfall and I'm sure it weakened prior to reaching the southern NJ coast. Thus, I feel the at least the wind damage from the system will not be as severe as it was predicted. Atlantic City, just a little north of where the center made landfall, did not have much more than 40-50 max SUSTAINED winds. You have to remember that hurricane force sustained winds of 75-90 mph cause a hell of a lot more damage than say wind gusts of 75-90 mph. I'm sure that Len will give us the lowdown for his area when he can.

cdnpinhead

. . .the wind damage from the system will not be as severe as it was predicted.

Ya think?

Crying wolf is now a cottage industry among those who seek ratings. It remains to be seen if this time, finally, it's for real.

Methinks not. Plus which, that'd be the best outcome, on any number of levels.

One day there will be a stupendous event, worthy of shutting everything down for 3-5 days in advance, but by then there will be many (more) jaded people who will blow it off.

anthonyp

A follow up ---He is in aapl 591$ all the way.....Tony

cyclone4

A follow up ---He is in aapl 591$ all the way.....Tony

Tony,

I believe he will be a very happy camper in the next several months.

gagrice

A guru buddy of mine spent time with the new Windows 8 RT Surface. He was very disappointed. Said hardly anyone in the Microsoft Store. The Surface does not run any MS applications from the Office group. Which means you have to buy the new version of office that is different than what you are used to. Supposedly the Surface pro will be out in January and run the full Win 8 OS?

http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/home-and-student/office-home-student-rt-previe- w-FX103210361.aspx

http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/23/tech/mobile/microsoft-surface-reviewed/index.html

cyclone4

The link below is from a company called The Verge. In the past, the Apple reviews from this company have not necessarily been favorable. I think you will be impressed.

http://www.theverge.com/2012/10/30/3576178/apple-ipad-mini-review

Here is a link that states Apple is about ready to sell the iPhone 5 in China. A deal with China Mobile is imminent as well. That will be huge for Apple.

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/is-the-iphone-5-headed-to-china.html/

gagrice

I am surprised they are not sold there already. They have a lot of Apple stores in China.

My guess is the iPad mini will be a bigger success than Apple anticipates. They next iteration will surely have the Retina display and be near ideal in size and function.

If nothing comes out to compare by Spring when I take a road trip, I will get the Galaxy Note II through Verizon. Just the right size for my hand.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-17852_3-57543042-71/lebron-makes-galaxy-note-2-look-re- eeally-small/

gagrice

Sounds like a smart move by Cook.

While tensions between Mr. Forstall and other executives had been mounting for some time, a recent incident appeared to play a major role in his dismissal. After an outcry among iPhone customers about bugs in the company’s new mobile maps service, Mr. Forstall refused to sign a public apology over the matter, dismissing the problems as exaggerated, according to people with knowledge of the situation who declined to be named discussing confidential matters.

Instead, Timothy D. Cook, Apple’s chief executive, in September signed the apology letter to Apple customers over maps.

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/29/apples-mobile-software-and-retail-chief- s-to-depart/

anthonyp

He now wants to buy more aapl, but I told him `no` never try and catch a falling knife.....and to throw extra cold water on the thought, I suggested he think of an exit point, next quarter, that should hold him off for the weekend.

I have still not gotten the iPhone, and don`t know when I can...I really think this could hurt aapl, as people are just going to get the competition..I probably will get my wife the ipad 4 as she likes it......

I have a friend who has a house right on the `shore` of N J ...He sent a picture, and I really feel for the people....It is such a trouble to clean up, and to even see the devastation hurts....Amazing what the American` spirit can do though....Tony

gagrice

Just looking at the Sturm Ruger (RGR) stock charts. They are selling record number of firearms. Their stock was just over $5 per share when Obama was elected. Today it closed up 87 cents at $45.71. It has gone up steadily hitting $55 in April. Here is the gamble. If Obama is re-elected I would guess their stock will skyrocket. If Romney wins it will probably drop some. Though they are still close to 1 million guns behind in production.

With Ruger’s sales up 86 percent since Obama took office, the company’s previous quarter sales demolished all expectations, with sales totaling $118 million dollars.

http://www.necn.com/11/02/12/Gun-sales-rise-in-Wyo-before-election-da/landing_na- tion.html?&apID=c7312d61715b428b8b21ce2fc04882fc

anthonyp

That is an incredible run......If you look at the fundamentals, and they still look strong, then there is no decision, but it may be prudent to take a small amount off the table Tony

ljflx

I have a hard time selling a company that has $127 bln in cash, trades at 9X earnings and less than 8X forward (that's taking the cash out of the price per share) and is growing at 25-35% a year and to boot can't produce enough iPhones to meet a sky high demand in which people queue up a week in advance of sale. It's just illogical to me to sell when hedge funds want you to do just that so that they flush you out and buy it cheap for themselves. Can anyone account for the fact that the selloff comes before Apple's biggest quarter of the year? Would a real investor sell at such a time? No - unless it was because they want to get out ahead of forseeable tax changes only to buy back in. It's more than fundamentals that are right. It's the Balance Sheet, huge amount of customers in stores, popularity of the products, high end nature of the customer base etc etc. If I'm a trader, or better stated a gambler rolling the dice, I sell and buy and try to time the winds of hedge funds and the like that shake the tree to flush out the weak. But as an investor it makes absolutely no sense. Where's the company going to go - to 5 or 6X earnings?? At that price the company buys itself off the market given a return that low.