The Stock Market and Investing

anthonyp

Hay Len

I, and all I know, are posturing themselves to take gains and income this year....consequently the declining market.....Now that`s just down here is ultra conservative S C....No matter who was elected, something has to give.....I, as you, just don`t hear of entitlement cuts, or irs new rules---just tax increases.....

I think it was a mistake on Romney`s part not to give any details on his plan to get the country back on track, consequently that didn`t float with me, and apparently with alot of other people....and also I really don`t think the tax code is at all fair, as I pay way more in taxes , as a percentage, than Romney....

This is also possibly the correction that we usually have in October...Who knows how it was postponed until after the election.....and as another thought maybe this is when the `options` are priced for the executives? cheers Tony

ljflx

Tony - OT - but have you ever been to Hall's Chophouse?

ljflx

He was at $800mln. He doubled it. The reps will use the $800mln number and negotiate off that. But the message is that he wants tax increases and doesn't plan much in spending cuts. The result is that we get more and more waste and greater and greater inefficiencies plus we take more and more money out of the economy. Of course the real message is that the deficit gets larger because Obama will just set up more programs and waste away whatever tax increases he gets.

anthonyp

NO But any `chop house` sounds good to me.........On another thought, a couple of days ago I was in a grocery store, and saw Tenderloin for six fifty a pound....Checked it out....It is a product of Mexico....Went back the next day, and purchased two of them, for about nine dollars.....It is grass fed beef, and you can tell by the more `white` marbling, vs a more yellow corn fed cow....Learned to carefully fully dry with a towel-- the meat-- and then cooked it....It was excellent ...I know Charley is going to have a `fit`, but I tell you it will be nice to eat more beef.....Man I have felt ripped off ever since....Tenderloin is at least eighteen dollars a lb, unless it is on sale at sixteen.....:) I know you like a good cut of beef, so do try this out if you get the chance...Tony

cyclone4

Charlie - you're the only Obama fan on this board. What's your thoughts on him now. I'll tell you I talked with a colleague that runs a $25mln manufacturing business today and he just ordered a new budget with spending cuts and guess where they are coming from.

Len, I honestly do not want to talk politics here since all it does is bring about bitterness. But I will answer your question this time. The American people spoke out during the election and they preferred the Democratic way of trying to solve the deficit problem, creating jobs, etc., by not punishing the middle class. Obama was constantly talking about this during the campaign. Did you expect him to come and say today that he changed his mind on increasing the tax rate on those making more than $250K today? I believe that's written in stone. Call me stupid, naive, or call me anything you want but from everything I've heard, forcing those making more than $250K to pay a little more will not necessarily hurt small business. Did we not have higher tax rates for the wealthy under Clinton? How was the economy then? I know that you cited your business and a colleague's business as examples of businesses that will either not hire new help or lay off current help, but from what I have been hearing on the networks I watch (obviously not Fox News), businesses are not going to stop hiring just because their tax rate has gone up a little.

As far as spending cuts are concerned, I am certain that these will take place one way or another. There will be compromising by both sides. I also think that there will be a compromise on the capital gains tax hike. The one issue where I doubt there will be any compromise is to not extend the Bush tax cuts on the wealthy and a likely tax hike (fairly small) on those making more than $250K. Having said all this, I am very optimistic that the two sides will come to an agreement by year's end and we will avoid the so called fiscal cliff.

By the way, I'm not sure that I'm the only Obama supporter here. It looks to me like Rob seems to be a supporter. Tony seems to be a great middle of the road guy. I also consider you as a moderate Republican. It's just that you have a great distaste for Obama.

The economy has improved markedly the past 4 years and in my opinion, the Democratic approach is the correct path to a continuation of this improvement.

Finally, and this is off topic, I tried to order Weague (sp?) burgers from Allan Brothers today and the darn site would not recognize my order of 10-8 oz. burgers. It kept telling me "there are no items on the cart" after I was placing the order. Placing the order for steaks was no problem. I finally gave up after a while. I will try again tomorrow (Thursday). Am I allowed to specify the day that I want them delivered? I will be gone all day Saturday and Sunday and I obviously don't want them delivered then. Monday or Tuesday would be fine.

ljflx

I've never seen Mexican beef but I'd think it would be pretty good if it came from a region near Texas. The reason why I asked about Hall's is their beef is supplied by Allen bros of Chicago who's considered the best or one of the best meat wholesalers in the country. I order meat from them occasionally and it's extraordinarily good and extraordinarily expensive (makes $18 a pound filet look like a dollar store). Their wagyu (kobe) burgers are as good or better than any burgers I've ever eaten out.

BTW - the cheesecake factory has a great 10 oz chophouse burger. They've also got a great Kobe burger.

ljflx

Yeah - I thought the American people sided with Obama too until I read about where he won the swing state's votes. He won among the poorest demographics and in some cases won every vote of many precints in those states. I mean every vote, not even a high majority of them. Hardly a mandate across the general population IMO and probably against the wishes of many middle income voters in those states and most certainly the wealthier tax payers. I have no problem with some tax increases. I have a major problem with Obama's definition of wealth and where those tax increases should kick in and I think his economic policies are going to kill us over the next 4 years if they go unchecked. His cap gain policy is going to hurt anyone that has to take a chance on LT business prospects (by that I mean running a business) and that probably means less new business developments. I've long thought there s/b a separation of LT gains on a stock vs LT gains on a business enterprise. On the latter you are employing people. It's also absurd that hedge funds get LT cap gains treatment on ST investments. It's terrible for tax income and its terrible for the market.

Clinton benefitted from the Internet bubble. I think he was a good president but he was president in prosperous times that he had little to do with. Big businesses may hire, but most will curtail or cutback aggressively because I doubt they see much revenue growth in a higher tax era. Just look at how revenue growth stalled in the 3rd quarter. But what they do with hiring may not matter anyway. Small business is the biggest hiring mechanism in the US and the Obama tax policy punishes small business (at least the successful ones that can hire) and will cause banks to tighten up credit to them even further. It couldn't be a worse time for a tax increase.

One last thing is that banks loan money under much more rigid rules and compliance ratios now than they did during the Clinton years. So yes small business will get hurt because they don't want to be out of compliance with those rules. The quid pro quo is higher interest rates (and generally they are 8-9% to begin with if you can even get a bank loan, hedge fund loans are 12%+)and a fault on the business owners credit rating. In effect your expenses go up thanks to interest and thanks to tax dividends you have to pay yourself. Both of thse tighten the fixed charge coverage ratio which is always the toughest bank ratio to make. Unless you show financials that are comfortably ahead of that ratio a bank won't even look at you. To a small business owner it's about the cash. All the accounting trickery you see with public business is fools gold to a small business. If you cook the books you're just cooking yourself.

Re Allens - yes you can specify the date of delivery. They ship in dry ice.

cyclone4

BTW - the cheesecake factory has a great 10 oz chopburger. They've also got a great Kobe burger.

I had one of those 10 oz. chop burgers at the Cheesecake Factory at a mall here in Des Moines this past Saturday evening. It was awesome. At 5:00 PM, we picked up tickets for the 7:00 PM showing of the new Bond movie. We then went to eat at the "factory". I highly recommend the new Bond movie. It is 2 and 1/2 hours long but it's so good that it feels like you're in the theater for an hour.

gagrice

We have a higher level of under employed and unemployed in our history. If you are better off than you were 4 years ago that is great. Being on a fixed income I can tell you I am NOT better off than I was 4 years ago. This election proved to me that only tax paying citizens should be allowed to vote. Welfare recipients being allowed to vote is UNAMERICAN in my opinion. The Precincts in Ohio, Fl, and PA where they have proven fraud should be recounted. Not that it will make a difference. It might for some Congressional races. Obama has divided this country more than any President in history. That will be his legacy. He will also be impeached for his part in the death of our ambassador to Libya. Biden will help push the process in the Senate and he will finally get to be President.

PS
I am thankful I sold all my stocks and mutual funds on Monday and Tuesday.

kyfdx

Our deficit for just this year will be over a trillion dollars...

So, a proposal to raise revenue by 16% of that amount seems reasonable.. If we are going by proposals, he's also said that he wants cuts that equal 2.5 times the revenue....

Revenue has to increase... .substantially.... you can't cut enough to get out of these deficits....

ljflx

you can't cut enough to get out of these deficits....

Cut enough? There are no spending cuts proposed whatsoever. Just a cut in the growth of spending. That reminds me of my kids begging for another 5 minutes on the computer when they were already a half hour past bed time. There are so many pressures on business right now. You have Europe, dwindling consumer spending, higher commodity prices, an unfriendly business climate under Whitehouse policies, a fiscal cliff with no agreement in site and both parties about to dig in and now higher taxes. Does anyone really think the economy won't go into a recession? The problem with tax revenues is they are calculated off of a status quo base. If a recession kicks in, and tax increases will help us get there, then the $1.6 trillion proposal gets cut way back off a new lower base.

Charlie - I strongly disagree that Americans feel they are better off than 4 years ago. I think psychologically many feel better because they survived the massive layoffs from that period. But they are worse off economically with falling housing prices, wages frozen while prices went up, they lost or had bonus programs cut and the only thing that was positive was the temporary cut in employee FICA taxes. Net wages continue to decline and there are 23mln people out of work and many that are working are underemployed. We had a very false unemployment reading recently as 900,000 people gave up looking for a job and reported themselves self employed. That's how we dropped to 7.8.

imidazol97

>We had a very false unemployment reading recently as 900,000 people gave up looking for a job and reported themselves self employed.

And a large number have received Social Security Disability payments--sort of permanent long term unemployment pay, only higher?

Under a different administration, the media would be running stories about the plight of various people, unemployed, underemployed, etc., each evening to the few still watching their network news shows. This continual parade of grim stories would have the masses feeling worse about the condition of our economy. Even the hurricane coverage has been sugarcoated.

The economy is much worse, with the inflation and the unemployment.

A solution has to incude some increased taxes from all those awful people making over $250,000 per year as well as actual cuts in the spending, not just cuts in the rate of increase of spending. If our economy were growing, cuts in the increases planned would let the economy catch up with taxes paid. But raising taxes on the wealthier folks will reduce tax intake over a period of years. Look what it did for New York and now California--the monied gentry are moving their taxable selves out-of-state.

As for the fiscal cliff that Obama wanted setup in the past instead of following Simpson-Bowles recommendations, I think there will be some cutting at the demand of Republicans, who were elected too, and some increases in taxes, rates for some above $250,000 as well as some changes in deductions for high income folks.

imidazol97

>The Precincts in Ohio, Fl, and PA where they have proven fraud should be recounted.

Princincts with high turnout rates and unexpectedly biased vote patterns should be audited. I suspect a lot of double registered young folks as well as noncitizens will be found to have voted--just in OHIO. I know that the "campaign" paid folk and others kept getting kicked off of The Ohio State's campus for activities recruiting college age students. The constant pressure with "voter suppression" claims has been to distract from the steal-the-vote efforts.

I'd like to feel that in 4 years the voting has become better controlled to those who are actually eligible and is safe from machine and precinct rigging. It sounds like the old Chicago stories--Oh, wait.... :P

robr2

Being on a fixed income I can tell you I am NOT better off than I was 4 years ago.

Devil's advocate here. Fixed income doesn't mean meager income - IIRC, didn't you just sell $400K in equities and are looking to invest in foreclosed homes?

gagrice

Yes I have a decent pension. No where close to the public retirees I am competing against for housing etc in CA. Add to that I just got my Teamster pension audit showing we are now in the "Critical" area below 65% funded. Again that is not as bad as the State of CA that is underfunded by over $300 Billion. And the legislature wants the tax payers to kick in $10 billion MORE per year over the next 30 years. The Tax payers will not be hit up on my pension unless it goes bankrupt. In which case I will get a huge reduction in my pension. No talk in CA of reducing all the fat cat public employee pensions. $400k under best case scenarios would not give me more than about $1600 per month in an annuity. And those companies are cutting back to 4% with the screwed up economy. By the way that $400k in the money market will give me about $65 per month interest.

When you factor the inflation for utilities, Food and gas over the last 4 years, those on fixed incomes are doing MUCH worse. And most people outside the government are making less than 4 years ago. From a Median $54k down to $50k per year. Things are a Heck of a lot worse. Unless you are a multi millionaire or completely tied in the welfare system.

PS
I forgot to add most of that money is in my IRA which is taxable at my current tax rate when I draw it out. So I will lose about 33 cents on the dollar when I have to start drawing it down next year.

gagrice

a large number have received Social Security Disability payments--sort of permanent long term unemployment pay, only higher?

A very fast expanding portion of SSI. With no funding limits. And very limited work requirements. And you automatically qualify for Medicaid. All coming out of the rest of our pockets. They are part of that 47% that do not pay any FIT.

houdini1

Cicero said it best over 2000 years ago. "Do not blame Caesar, blame the greedy fools who elected him". Or something like that.

ljflx

Yep - and when one of the parties of government agrees with the immigrants flooding the country for minimal rules to citizenship to get the handouts that party is ready to give you know you have a serious problem on your hands. Talk about buying votes. We just go deeper and deeper into the hole. Until the whole thing blows up in your face you can't compete with that. So now both parties may embrace that strategy. I don't know if I should laugh or cry about the immigration reform that these groups (who seem to be well organized) are demanding in exchange for their future votes.

gagrice

The smart Rich folks have already followed Romney's example and stashed cash in various safe havens around the globe. The Feds are not going to get into the cash held by Apple, Buffett, Gates, Soros, Bloomberg and several hundred other billionaires. Our government is run by buffoons from the President on down. It will be the upper middle class that take it in the shorts as usual. Anyone with a $million to $10 million in assets that voted for Obama should be put in an asylum for the brain dead. Because that is the targeted group by Obama and his thugs. Small business men especially in states like Illinois and CA will be the first to fall. We are right behind the EU and their return to recession. If you still have a good job, be thankful your boss has not pulled the plug yet..

anthonyp

There are a diverse number of opinions from people who post here, and I imagine each person has their own perspective derived from personal experience..

I personally know quite a few Hispanic people and they are all good people.....Six or seven years ago they really were Republican.....The Republicans ran them off with the immigration statements.....I know this to be true..

Almost all of the `rich` people I know are proud Americans, with all their money invested here in the USA, with the exception of a vacation house outside the country....Also they are almost all Republican ....I guess I am one of the few that predominately think Democratic, but also have Republican views on quite a few issues......It gall me to hear tax increase and no mention of spending cuts....I pay the maximum tax and it further gall me when someone with far more monetary wealth pays a pittance ....

I further think the Federal Reserve is responsible for the huge dislocation going on now.....I`m retired, and appreciate the lack of investible bonds or other conservative investments....I feel for anyone in the same boat.....

I was around for the eighteen percent Volker era, and survived it , and this zero percent era I hope to survive it----The bad thing is I don`t know, as I know the twenty percent era Hindsight

All in all there are many opportunities out there---different than my era--and the next generation is going to do fine..We as a group have to make investment decisions for ourselves, as the advisers we use to turn to are not like they use to be.. a shame .....Tony

ljflx

The pressure on mutuals and hedge funds to liquidate asset positions is a lot greater than what I would have expected. The intent to raise taxes seems to have accelerated the fears and you have to wonder when it ends. We're in a market where we can expect unusual things to happen including further bottoms and an ususually sharp recoil. I think Apple is getting crushed by redemptions of long held positions. But people are as usual going too far. The news is suddenly bullish about greater iPhone sales, bullish reports of projections by Apple suppliers and suddenly a rash of analysts reiterating strong buys on the stock. Be careful what you do with any stock right now as some stocks seem badly oversold and others haven't sold off enough. There's a great inbalance out there, not because of fundamentals, but because of longevity of positions in certain stocks. The fundamentals and valuations are all out of whack right now. I went back into the market today with the 50% of mutuals I sold off earlier. I wouldn't mind one more down day because of the lag on mutuals. Apple is a screaming buy right now but again the market is haywire and timing Apple has nothing to do with fundamentals right now.

gagrice

I pay the maximum tax and it further gall me when someone with far more monetary wealth pays a pittance ...

That would be me also. I do not mind helping those that are genuinely hurting. I just get tired of seeing people running around feeling they are entitled to a high standard of living without having to work hard to get it. I put my 46 years into my trade and did without many times to have a comfortable retirement. Same goes for the corporate welfare handed out flagrantly as paybacks for campaign contributions to the Congress and Presidents.

I have several Mexican friends that were born in Mexico and went through the hoops, learned the language and proudly swore to uphold the Constitution in return for US Citizenship. They are NOT the ones pushing for wide open borders. I don't see anyone in the government making an honest effort to fix the illegal immigration situation. Obama only made it worse with his latest amnesty for the young illegals. My shooting buddy was born in Mexico and is a US citizen. He is working with Duncan Hunter on a fair amnesty bill with teeth for future violators. And those that hire them. CA has made a travesty of our immigration laws.

ljflx

Add me to the list that pays the highest marginal tax rate. My income is from my business both in compensation and in share of business earnings so there is nowhere to hide. The low income tax rates happen because of dividends and cap gain treatment for high income people like Romney. Dividends I don't have a problem with because they are double taxed. But LT cap gains on stocks is becoming an issue for me because it's more like gambling income vs the person who has a large cap gain on a business he or she bought or started. The moment you are hiring people and putting America to work, especially in these days of corporate America pushing as many jobs as possible overseas, I separate out what a LT cap gain should really be vs what the tax code allows. It also galls me that Obama is ready to drop the tax rate on the corporate America that outsources jobs overseas but wants to increase it on the small business America that creates the jobs he supposedly wants to occur. Still another reason why he makes no sense to me.

anthonyp

Len

No one has mentioned the about to be -four more percent- for the Obama Care package that is coming no matter what, and today In chatting with a friend, he said ` the way the fiscal cliff is shaping up is that Obama has the veto power to just veto whatever the House Senate comes up with, and over the cliff we all go` Apparently this is in how the `extension` was written.... This decline may be steeper than we thing, due to all the uncertainty.....I`m taking notice now , more seriously...Tony

gagrice

I think you have explained it quite well. That is exactly what my friends that are small business men are saying. Most have less than 30 employees and feel totally trapped by our Federal and State government. One tried to sell his business of 37 years and finally just called it quits. 12 people on unemployment. He and his wife working full time in the business were making less than minimum wage the last several years. The bright spot is there home is paid for from the good years. The bad part is he is going to look for a job at 70 years of age.

gagrice

For those that think the rich are doing well in this recession. Take a look at the foreclosures around La Jolla.

La Jolla Foreclosures

fintail

I have been out of the country since several days before the election - so I have been keeping an eye on exchange rates. The outcome didn't seem to create any lack of faith in the stability of the US, in fact, the dollar gained a little. So, one can take that as either it doesn't matter, or that the current empty suit is no more trouble (and maybe less) than his equally empty defeated opponent. If anything, the election should be a lesson learned on what details should be given, and which rear ends should be smooched. Sadly, the previous experiment was also a lesson to be learned, and I don't know if that happened.

Europe is only not in recession in pure economic definitions - unemployment has risen and there is a general air of malaise. I don't see the omnipresent poverty in non-PIGS states I see even in WA state , as when you don't play world policeman, don't embark on infinite expensive foreign policy idiocy (some demanded by forces who control the US no matter who is in office), and don't blindly embrace unproven trickle down lunacy, you can have a slightly better safety net. Regarding taxation, the whole book of definitions needs to be re-written as to how small business people claim and define their personal incomes. And that being said, the world isn't going to end no matter who is in office. Much of Europe is a facade, China is certainly a facade, really what real nation (sorry, tax havens don't count) have the legitimate social stability, potential for innovation, and workforce of the US?

If I was rich, CA wouldn't be on my short list of places to buy a house...

cyclone4

Charlie - I strongly disagree that Americans feel they are better off than 4 years ago. I think psychologically many feel better because they survived the massive layoffs from that period. But they are worse off economically with falling housing prices, wages frozen while prices went up, they lost or had bonus programs cut and the only thing that was positive was the temporary cut in employee FICA taxes. Net wages continue to decline and there are 23mln people out of work and many that are working are underemployed.

Even though I am replying to Len here, I am really replying to all of you on the opposite side of the political spectrum.

Are you guys trying to tell me that this nation is not better off now than it was 4 years ago? Do you need a reminder that another great DEPRESSION was imminent 4 years ago? Yes unemployment is still very high and there are a lot of people out there struggling to put food on the table.

As far as the "fixed income" issue is concerned, I am also on fixed income and I can honestly say that I am better off than I was 4 years ago when I consider what was about to happen at that time. So what if my income is not as high as it was 4 years ago? I am not complaining. And, I am willing to pay a higher tax rate IF by some luck I happen to make more than $250K on one of these years that I am very successful in trading commodities, and or, I hit a gold mine in something like Apple and I decide to sell it.

On jobs, please show me the proof that if the wealthy pay a higher tax rate that jobs will be lost. The studies I have seen say NO. I have seen several very wealthy big wigs (not just Warren Buffet) lately (on TV) state that they should pay more in taxes and that this will in no way hurt the economy.

I am appalled at comments made that only tax paying citizens should be allowed to vote. EVERY American citizen has a right to vote. And, the election was NOT rigged. Gee, I wonder why some Republicans lost in a State such as North Dakota? Was that rigged? You guys should admit that your side lost and get over it. I'll tell you what was rigged. It was the FL results in 2004.

Finally, I was extremely encouraged by the brief press conference a few minutes ago by leaders of both parties that everything is on the table and that a deal will be made sooner rather than later. It was very conciliatory. Frankly, I am NOT surprised. As I stated a couple days ago, I am optimistic that a deal will get done. Both Parties (except for the Tea Party who are wackos in my opinion) know that a deal has to get done. The consequence is NOT an option.

I knew when I was listening to the leaders make brief remarks that the market would rally and I wish I had the guts to buy more AAPL during the beginning of the conference when it was $14-15 lower.

robr2

One tried to sell his business of 37 years and finally just called it quits. 12 people on unemployment. He and his wife working full time in the business were making less than minimum wage the last several years. The bright spot is there home is paid for from the good years. The bad part is he is going to look for a job at 70 years of age.

If he's been in business for 37 years and needs to find a job now at age 70, I have to say he didn't do a very good job of managing his business or lifestyle in that time. He should have started cutting many years ago if he and his wife were making less than minimum wage for the past few years.

fintail

Regarding taxes, there were plenty of long prosperous periods in the past when the wealthy had far higher tax responsibilities than they do today. Indeed there is nothing showing raising their taxes will create some kind of collapse - it is speculation, exactly like trickle down theory itself.

I think/hope the sore loser/conspiracy theory tea party side will slowly fade away and some kind of intellectually capable GOP will exist again. Having leadership who actually knows how to make anything work, who can detail their plans and not simply kiss up to the top few or the shrinking social conservatives, will do nothing but help the economic stability of the US, and hopefully give us all some solid returns :shades:

gagrice

It was the typical Mom and Pop store. In their case a TrueValue hardware store. Prices were higher because it was 13 miles to the closest Home Depot. I would have called it quits when the bad times hit in 2008. They had faith in America coming back. I don't see it ever coming back in CA. Tomorrow is the last day and they have been knocking 5% more off the prices of the inventory for the last week. Everything in the store is 75% off tomorrow. I bought a few things yesterday at 65% off. That is when the owner told me he was taking a month off then looking for a job. I am his age and would not like looking for a job in this market.

For those with plenty of money the economy is fine. For the ones that cannot find anything but entry level minimum wage work, it is horrible. If you have kids or can get disability it is not as bad. As CA has lots of welfare programs. I just have to disagree that the economy has improved. The Dow average does NOT reflect the health of our nation. Only corporate profits. A big share of those profits like AAPL are garnered on the backs of Chinese slave labor. They also reflect the loss of American manufacturing jobs. I guess when you are the person that deals with the downtrodden that come to the Church for help, you have a different perspective. The misery index that I see here in San Diego is the worst it has ever been in my lifetime. The tent shelters housing homeless are all around us and this is an affluent area. It is MUCH worse the closer you get to downtown San Diego. And getting worse by the day.

The final tally was not ready by late afternoon. Last year, the total number of people without homes was 9,020 countywide, up 5.9 percent from January 2010.

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2012/jan/27/san-diego-county-counts-its-homeless/-

cyclone4

I think/hope the sore loser/conspiracy theory tea party side will slowly fade away and some kind of intellectually capable GOP will exist again. Having leadership who actually knows how to make anything work, who can detail their plans and not simply kiss up to the top few or the shrinking social conservatives, will do nothing but help the economic stability of the US, and hopefully give us all some solid returns

I second that "emotion" fintail!

Btw, I will take back my comment from my long post above that the 2004 election in FL was rigged. Maybe it was and maybe it wasn't. There is insufficient evidence to say for sure one way or the other.

This site was down for a couple of hours.

ljflx

Are you guys trying to tell me that this nation is not better off now than it was 4 years ago? Do you need a reminder that another great DEPRESSION was imminent 4 years ago? Yes unemployment is still very high and there are a lot of people out there struggling to put food on the table.

Yes - absolutely. The nation borrowed the money completely and Bernanke ended up printing more. It didn't make any money. We are way more in debt than 4 years ago with hope of only slowing its growth, not ending it. We are headed to a period where we'll owe a trillion dollars a year in principle for God knows how many tens of years just to pay it off and if interest rates go up to more historical norms it will be catastrophic for us. The only way you see a better nation now than 4 years ago is if you make believe the national debt doesn't exist and won't get any worse.

Re jobs - it's not a tax on the wealthy that is at issue - it's a much heavier tax on those businesses that fall into that group (again using $250K as a barometer with no regard to the fact that $250K in NY or LA is very different than $250K in say Texas) that hire people. That's where the job issue is. I've stated the reasons why numerous times. I hardly think an added tax on Bill Gates or Warren Buffett (and the like) or the Wall street crowd where a $500k bonus is chump change matters to anyone but them. That is not a threat to jobs.

cyclone4

Len, the one thing I am certain about is that we were right there...Great Depression here I come! I know where you are coming from as far as $250K (Here in IA as well, $250K is probably more like $150K in NY) is concerned on small businesses. You know what? I bet there will be a compromise on that as well. I just despise selfishness. I have had first hand experience with this with my former business partner who by the way is a conservative Republican. He is one of those people that goes to Church every Sunday, but is a total hypocrite. I have probably said too much here, but I don't care at this point.

I was optimistic two days ago that the fiscal cliff would be avoided. I am now VERY optimistic. Both sides realize that if a deal is not agreed upon, it will be catastrophic. It was nice to see a reversal in the market today.

PS..I tried again to place an order for Wagyu burgers yesterday and it still did not work. I am going to place the order by phone.

anthonyp

Charlie---sorry about your ex partner.....Ihave learned to get my guard up as soon as someone starts to talk about Christianity , and church .....It can be a play to get you to drop your guard, and it has worked on me in the past...

I too hope the `cliff` is avoided......but right now I am pulling for the Republicans to hand tough....as you know I have Democratic roots, but the Dem`s have to get some reality..

An example is the `twinkie` upheaval ....One disgruntled worker said he would be better off just taking un-employment as the twenty five thousand dollar a year he would make just didn`t cut it.....Man what a shame ....Unemployment being used as a substitute for employment.....Tony

cyclone4

Thanks Tony! I know I have told you this before, but it's worth repeating. You are a wonderful human being.

gagrice

An example is the `twinkie` upheaval ....One disgruntled worker said he would be better off just taking un-employment

Then parlay it into some of the welfare programs. This is what Democrats want. To enslave people into their system of votes for rewards. Right today in CA a family of 4 can get assistance of about $3200 per month. to match that with a job you would have to make over $18 per hour. Those kinds of jobs are not coming around. Phil's BBQ just opened here and they had over 3000 applicants to choose from for mostly $8 per hour jobs. Obama circumvented the 1996 welfare laws giving states waivers on the work requirements.

As for Hostess. They lost $340 million last year. That was after several years of huge losses. The Bankruptcy court was involved in the Union contracts. The Teamsters signed on and the Bakers did not. The ironic thing is most of the $860 million Hostess owes to lenders is from the Union pension plans.

anthonyp

Your kind words are always appreciated......Over the years you have always spoken your mind, as well as Len and all the different perspectives are appreciated from all...I think you and I are really more democratic thinking ( small d) and then others think we are associated with out of control liberalism ....Your essence shines through...

I think that the situation in California for a family of four getting thirty six thousand , just doesn`t make sense......My idea of un-employment is a basic amount to just get by, and motivate a person to find some sort of employment.....We all had to start someplace, coming from un-employment , to employment.....I`m in awe of your additional accomplishments---so our system works......If you really want to scare yourself, go just stand on a college campus, and look at all the young people ..Every one of them has to make that leap, and they do...Amazing Tony

gagrice

My idea of un-employment is a basic amount to just get by, and motivate a person to find some sort of employment

That is my feelings as well. I don't want anyone to go hungry. I know how that feels. I also don't want to support able bodied people that have learned how to game the system. I would be willing to take cuts in my SS and MC to help get the deficit back under control.

The reason I know about the welfare system: I counseled a 50 year old man that is trying to keep his family together. He has been on Welfare for the last 10 years. Two teenage children. He gets $3200 per month from the various state agencies. The family is covered 100% by Medicaid. He is struggling as his wife spends more than he is taking in. He would take a job to supplement that income. However they would take much of his welfare. We have a horrible welfare system in this country. It should be obvious by this last election. How much longer will the middle class and upper middle class put up with it? I don't want US to get in the mess they have in Spain, France, Italy and Greece.

fintail

At the least, after 00 and 04, maybe Florida should have been forced to sit out the next few elections until they can prove they have their act together. Not a first world part of the nation. Maybe let Cuba have em :shades:

I consider myself to be relatively conservative on fiscal matters - but relatively liberal on social matters. I know many others are similar. This is who the GOP needs to chase. I hate bleeding heart save the world by spending into oblivion BS, but I also hate hypocritical puritanism which spends just as much. If these parties could just behave like us (spend less than we make), there'd be ahead brighter than we can imagine.

gagrice

Any opinions on this? Is the money being paid out supporting adult children considered part of the estate to be taxed? Something like 45% of male children 18-25 are unemployed and supported by mom and pop.

Ranchers, farmers brace for 'death tax' impact

"There is no way financially my kids can pay what the IRS is going to demand from them nine months after death and keep this ranch intact for their generation and future generations," said Kester, of the Bear Valley Ranch in Central California.

Two decades ago, Kester paid the IRS $2 million when he inherited a 22,000-acre cattle ranch from his grandfather. Come January, the tax burden on his children will be more than $13 million.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/11/16/ranchers-farmers-brace-for-death-tax-- impact/?intcmp=trending

anthonyp

Maybe he has to pay taxes on that amount of income? State as well as federal....Frankly I just do not understand ....

I personally would be in agreement to take away my ss , as I can sacrifice that, but it would not change anything unless the government were to shrink some of these programs that they call `entitlement`....I paid for the ss, and I might add those dollars were more meaningful back then.....

Knowing something about Florida, the retirees are on the West coast , predominately, and the East coast has just pockets.....Those retirees as a whole voted for Romney....Where I stay is in Miami /Dade county, and it is composes of a huge number of nationalities, and people think Cubans are the majority...they are not...The reason they went so heavily Democratic is the immigration policy...but the Democrats get out the vote.....There are alot of Republicans in Miami/Dade, and the Democrats will vote for whom they believe represents their interest, so don`t think the Dem have a lock.....

One interesting thing about Miami/Dade, is a camp of sexual deviants that use to have to live under one of the bridges.....They had a regular hobo camp, and the government finally said that was inhumane....It still took a couple of years to move them , as there were hundreds of people.....I tell you each community has their own ways, and some of those ways are cruel on the surface, but appropriate ...Tony

ljflx

Ranchers, farmers brace for 'death tax' impact

"There is no way financially my kids can pay what the IRS is going to demand from them nine months after death and keep this ranch intact for their generation and future generations," said Kester, of the Bear Valley Ranch in Central California.

Two decades ago, Kester paid the IRS $2 million when he inherited a 22,000-acre cattle ranch from his grandfather. Come January, the tax burden on his children will be more than $13 million.

Just watch the movie "Secretariat" for a perfect example of this. In real life this greatest racehorse of all time was syndicated because the family that owned him wanted to put most of the money raised into the stock market (using the rest to partially pay the estate tax on the farm left by the father). But in the movie they portrayed that the money was needed to pay the estate tax in full. So the movie serves as a good lesson on what happens to estates in which an asset other than a liquid one is left in an estate. Ironically it's the same problem the supposed "rich" have in small business. All of the profits are taxed at the marginal rate which will go up 10-15% when you combine tax increases, Obamacare taxes and deduction limitations. But most of that income is not received in cash. It usually goes to repaying bank debt to expand the businesses. Therein lies the major flaw that Obama doesn't see or doesn't want to deal with.

Speaking of Secretariat - here's one of my favorite you tube videos set to the spectacular triumphant music of "Rudy". Because I was at this race I, and many others including Jack Nicklaus, have tears in our eyes watching it now and when it originally happened. Don't know why. Maybe because it was an era when America got tied up with emotion to a horse that ran a race as perfectly as possible. The ironic thing is I still have the winning mutual ticket - which because he was a 1:10 favorite was worth $2.20 but today is worth thousands of dollars. The problem is I have no clue where it is. It's lost somewhere in my house in a box somewhere in my house that we packed when I moved to my current house. My 1909 S VDB penny and my 1932 S quarter (I used to be a coin collector and both are worth a lot) are also missing and are probably in the same box.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2c_ylcxgCaI

houdini1

Well, I hope your optimism about Obama and his policies is warranted, but I fear it is not. Everything should be much clearer in a couple of years.

Concerning the fiscal cliff, it has always been Obama's style to seemingly negotiate in good faith, drag things out to the bitter end, then, just as a deal seems imminent, make impossible demands. Then when it all blows up, he and the media blame the other side. We'll see how it goes.

ljflx

As a guy who has negotiated about 40 acquisitions and divestitures I couldn't agree more with your post. Obama doesn't seem to know how to negotiate and because of that doesn't recognize when to seize the moment. He's also taking stances in public speeches that he then has to live up to or he has to say no in negotiation and cause the cliff to happen. Anyone who has to negotiate anything knows that's the last thing you do as you can only lose and the only way out is to blame the other side. In business you get fired for stupidity like that. But in politics you BS the people who lack understanding into believing the other side is at fault. This is telling me that Obama is still politicking rather than being serious about avoiding falling off the cliff. That's why I still have serious doubts we'll avoid it. The Reps made a major concession in saying they had no problem with raising tax revenues by killing off certain deductions and loopholes. But Obama missed seizing that moment.

BTW - all of a sudden I read in the NTY Times that many democrats think Romney's tax ideas about limiting deductions is a great idea and the way to go. Amazing that two weeks ago this was supposedly a sham according to the democrat hierarchy. Incredible.

gagrice

WOW, what a horse he was. Thanks for sharing. Hope you find the ticket one day when you really need it. I just cannot join those that think that passing on your assets to your family is wrong. I watched my landlady lose the bulk of her homestead in Alaska when her husband died. The Feds are ruthless to survivors.

ljflx

What was a shame was that Sham who finished second in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness (and who probably ran the second fastest Derby ever) would have won the triple crown in any other year and would have gone down as one of the greatest racehorses ever. He, like Secretariat, had a much bigger heart than the average race horse and a more efficient breathing and genetic make-up. But he was born at the same age as the greatest horse of all time. That Belmont capped not only the triple crown but Secretariat set all three race records and to this day, some 43 years later they all stand. In fact the only one another horse has come close to is the Preakness but they were still 2/5ths of a second too slow. The Belmont was run in 2:24, an unheard of speed that is a world record and considered more untouchable than any sport record that exists. No horse has come within 2 seconds of it and most run the Belmont 3-6 seconds slower. A second is 6 lengths so the second fastest horse to ever run the Belmont would have been beaten by 12 lengths and most by 18-30 lengths, After the Belmont no trainer would run their 3 year old horses against him. In fact they had to persuade trainers to even get the field of 5 in the Belmont as no one wanted to run their horse in that race, other than Sham. Sham broke down trying to keep up with him and had to be retired after that race. Secretariat raced only older horses after that and set track records in every race he won. Had he run as a 4 year old racing experts think he'd have owned every world record. An unbelievable horse that is often called "The horse that God built" not only for his internal genetic make-up but also because of his stunning looks and build and his ability to know to pose whenever a camera was focussed on him..

BTW - he won the Belmont by 31 lengths, not the 25 the track announcer stated. The track announcer was Chic Anderson, who is also considered the best there ever was. A second thing that is often forgotten is that Forego, a horse that became horse of the year in 74, 75 and 76, and a top 5 horse of all time was beaten badly in the Derby. His owners kept him out of every race Secretariat ran after the Derby.

houdini1

I really can't decide if Obama doesn't know how to negotiate, or if he uses these tactics on purpose when he really doesn't want a deal to be made...unless he gets it 100% his way.

gagrice

Obama reneged on the Boehner deal, and the media painted it just the opposite. I really wonder if an honest journalist exists. I cannot think of one since Edward R. Murrow. They all let their bias be seen.

carnaught

But in politics you BS the people who lack understanding into believing the other side is at fault. This is telling me that Obama is still politicking rather than being serious about avoiding falling off the cliff.

You would think he would be rolling up his sleeves and trying to reach a "deal", even a (gulp) compromise on trying to avoid falling off the fiscal cliff. But, noooo, he won the election, don't you know, and is now on his way to a place that is crucial to the U.S.'s present and future, Myanmar.

Gersham Bulkeley wrote, "Actions are more significant than words."