The Stock Market and Investing

ljflx

The storm was just plain incredible here. There will be textbooks written about this storm. I've never seen a circulation like it. At one point it was raining in Bermuda and Detroit from Sandy at the same time as part of the huge circulation. At another point the circulation stretched from the Arctic Circle to central Florida. The entire coast line from Atlantic City through New York, all of Long island and well into southern New England was either destroyed or badly damaged. The entire NJ shore communities from Bayhead NJ thru Seaside Heights (a strip of land between the Barnergat Bay and the Atlantic which ends at Seaside) was totally destroyed. There are photos of the Mantoloking bridge now ending in a new inlet created by Sandy that isolated a large home in the middle and brought other large homes literally to the roadway. I'd estimate that I've been to Seaside Heights about 750 times in my life at least. It's like a state fair except that you can go there (or you used to be able to) every weekend for 3+ months every summer and it was pretty busy before and after the summer. My favorite way to go was thru Rt 35, which road down the island rather than navigated it on Rt 37 through the mainland and then over a bridge over Barnegat. Now that road has large piles of sand at each side and has homes moved from their foundations and boats on it in stretches. Seaside had a long stretch of boardwalk teeming with arcades, games, eateries etc. between two large piers with rides on them and then the boardwalk was so popular that it extended well past one of the piers. I believe the fictional Tabor Heights in Boardwalk Empire is actually Seaside Heights in reality. The storm surge that destroyed it was very bad because the storm lasted so long. Flooding started well before the real surge came in. I had minor damage to my home. I lost a bunch of roof tiles and had the plywood exposed in spots. Luckily we got a roofer to fix the damage almost immediately as another Nor'easter is expected on Wednesday with 50+ mph gusts expected here and up to 70 mph at the shore. There's even the possibility of some snow in NW suburbs and some weather boards even mention the European weather model (which predicted Sandy 8 days in advance almost to the spot it made landfall) saying the coast could see the first snow flakes of winter. I took pictures and notified the insurance company I couldn't wait 3 weeks for their adjuster to come by. I also had my aluminum fence in my yard damage in 3 spots by a 60' Beech tree that came down. I've never lost a Beech but this one was growing out of very wide Oak tree stump and it cracked at the top end of that stump. The oak must have come down 40 or 50 years ago. How the Beech rooted itself in that stump is beyond me. Another 60 foot tree came down in my woods but it fell away from my deck and gazebo. The fence had one section taken to the ground where the bark hit and two other sections were bent by the strong branches. I have a weather station and the barometer bottomed out at 28.11. We had 4 gusts over 70mph, top one was 75mph and probably countless gusts above 60mph. The gusts were so frequent monday afternoon and evening that it was like a sustained wind. I heard sounds in my house that I've never heard before. We lost power for 5+ days but I'm lucky as I put in a standby generator with natural gas so I had heat and electric, the latter in much of the house. With Well and Septic here it is very difficult to live without power. It means no water and no toilets in effect. We went thru Irene with no power for 4 days but that was in summer so we used pool water to flush. Right after that we got the generator. Prior to Irene we went through ice storms and bad winter storms with only limited power outages so we got spoiled. But in an ice storm a few years ago some parts of the town and county had no power for a week. With Sandy there are still large parts of the town and county without power and some people hae had sub 50 degree temperatures in their homes. Here in Monmouth county we had curfews on travel from 7PM to 7AM through Saturay night. Just an amazing mother of all east coast storms.

One last thing - the gas lines which were miles long with 4+ hour waits on Friday and Saturday have eased tremendously now that power is being restored and deliveries are occuring. Today there are still lines in some places, especially the larger heavily travelled highways, but I've also seen stations that had no lines at all and if you are lucky you can pull right up to the pump. Supermarkets are slowly getting products back on the shelves. It hardly feels normal, in fact the whole thing feels so surreal, but it feels a lot more nrmal than it did late last week.

NJ shore pictures - note the Mantoloking Bridge (this is just north of Seaside Heights) and the roller coaster in the water which is at Seaside Heights.

http://www.google.com/search?q=NJ+shore+photos+of+Sandy+destruction&hl=en&rlz=1W- 1ADBS_enUS311&prmd=imvnsu&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=ixyYULeqNef50gHlsYD- oAQ&sqi=2&ved=0CCsQsAQ&biw=1920&bih=860

anthonyp

What a great report from you...Alot of effort and I appreciate it.....Sorry for your tree losses in particular.....The old saying ` Never fall in love with a tree` is a hard lesson to learn..:)

I think ,down here in Charleston, Hugo did so much tree damage that it changed the look of the city for a hundred years.....We replanted largely with `palmetto` and other trees, that really won`t get too large...but what was the surprise to me was how our local economy `boomed`...Banks flush with cash from the insurance companies, and our officials making the insurance companies replace with the original textured materials.....Your officials really need to pull for the people..

The insurance companies are still `pissed` and the premiums are sky high..

Good Luck to you and thanks again for the detailed report Tony

houdini1

Good to hear you are doing well and that things are generally improving. Mother Nature is not to be toyed with, and when she goes on a tear, we are all pretty much helpless.

The silver lining is that the entire area will be rebuilt/renewed and be even better than it was before. Glad you have that Generac. Keep us posted.

cyclone4

Oh Len! We are very happy that you and your family came out of this disaster safely. That's the most important thing. This was definitely a storm of Biblical proportions in terms of its humongous wind field. Even at my daughter's house in Akron, OH there were gusts of well over 40 mph for an entire night. This would have been even a lot worse if your area had sustained hurricane force winds for that length of time instead of constant gusts.

Those photos are amazing and very sad.

ljflx

OK gang - another big storm here tomorrow with 40-60 mph winds and potentially more beach erosion. This one is really cold and the city down to my area could see 2-3" of snow and sleet. So don't be surprised to see hvy wet snow falling in NYC on the news tomorrow. After that it finally gets warm and calm here with temperatures reaching the 60's this weekend.

Power trucks out in droves here. They are making a big push before tomorrows storm. There are still a lot of people without power and temperatures in their homes are in the 40's in many cases. During this storm temperatures are expected to be 32-34 degrees and with strong winds homes without power will get even colder and there's a threat of new power outerages. I've seen crews from Canada, and many midwest states including Wisconsin.

gagrice

I should have bought RGR Ruger when it dropped to $44 yesterday. With Obama in again we can look for it to skyrocket. I will try to get in early in the morning.

gagrice

I held out hope for a Romney win and lost out on Ruger. It is up $2.50 in early trading. The rest of the market is ready to take a dive. But my gold is up, so not all is bad.

cyclone4

The good news is that the center of low pressure is tracking way off shore (by several hundred miles). So, it does not look like it will be that bad for NJ and the City. Yes there will likely be some gusts of greater than 40 mph and some wet snow at times, but the accumulation will not be all that much. Additionally, the winds are going to shift rather quickly later this PM and evening from the northeast to the northwest. That will help to minimize beach erosion.

ljflx

Charlie, I believe that is the GFS model which still puts down .75-1" liquid equivalent here. But forecasters here seem to be using the Nam. Snowfall here is increasing in intensity and is probably moderate now after some early rain which was probably snow aloft that melted before it reached ground level. Precip is backing in off the ocean rather than coming up from the southwest. Strange to see snow flying amid beautiful colors in my backyard, though this is now the second year in a row, though last year the leaves were actually a lot more green as that was a mid October storm. The lower forest trees and lower branches of large trees in my backyard are at peak while the tops of the large trees had most of their leaves blown off by Sandy. Typically my backyard reaches peak about a week after Halloween.

Edit: And now suddenly we have heavy snow falling and starting to whiten my deck. Amazing - from a destructive hurricane to snow a week later.

ljflx

Probably going to end up with 6" of snow. We have 4.5" so far and its snowing heavily and theres a plowable snow on all roadways. Even Manhattan has snow accumulating on streets and thats not easy in November on that heat island. Reports of a lot more power outages now and a shutdown of the Long Island railroad. No one expected snow like this near the coast. The 1-4" advertised yesterday was supposed to be on grassy areas with 1 at the coast and 4 well inland.

gagrice

There are some tax things to consider if you suffered a loss in Sandy.

For example, you could have a big involuntary conversion gain if your valuable vacation home is heavily damaged or destroyed and your insurance coverage greatly exceeds what you paid for the property when you bought it years ago.

If you have an involuntary conversion gain, it generally must be reported as income on your Form 1040 unless you (1) make sufficient expenditures to repair or replace the property and (2) make a special tax election to defer the gain. If you make the election (you generally should), you have a taxable gain only to the extent the insurance proceeds exceed what you spend to repair or replace the property. The expenditures for repairs or replacement generally must occur within the period beginning on the date the property was damaged or destroyed and ending two years after the close of the tax year in which you have the involuntary conversion gain.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-possible-tax-hit-for-sandys-victims-2012-11-0- 7

ljflx

We have 7.5" of snow here. Power now going out all over the place. My lights have flickered badly and if you go outside you can here trees crackling or branches breaking from the weight of the snow. I saw a bright flash in the sky that looked like lightning (it didn't have the greenish glow of a power station) but it wasn't. I think it was a tree falling against a power line. My prized Kousa dogwood is bent to the ground like a pretzel. It does not seem like any branches are broken so I'm going to leave it until it melts tomorrow and hope it snaps back up. It is a gorgeous tree. It is very bad here. Still snowing at a good clip. Unbelievable to get this snowstorm on the heels of a hurricane.

http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=2ld8z69&s=6

ljflx

Final tally here was 10-12" of snow. I had 10" but some parts of the area measured 12". Personally I think my measurement is mre accurate as I don't use the board measurement that the NWS says to use. That type avoids compaction of the snow and in the case of early and late season snowfalls it minimizes melting while the snow falls due to the warm ground. It's partly why lake effect snowfalls suddenly are so great. Caribou once measured 28" of snow but only had 20" on the ground at the end of the storm because they used the board method. Trees here are bent in all kinds of shapes and I have two prized trees, a kousa and a gorgeous japanese red maple (upright not weeping that I pray regain their shape when the snow falls off. They were still 100% leafed out.

cyclone4

Len,

All I can say is this is mind boggling. A good chunk of NJ was in a perfect spot as it turned out to get a dumping of heavy, wet snow. I would have never thought it was possible to get something like this amount of snow this time of year in your area. At least, this time the winds were not too much of a factor. I believe your winds were not much more than 20-30 mph with perhaps some higher gusts. Otherwise, it would have been catastrophic.

I sure hope your suffering trees survive. There will be rapid melting today.

anthonyp

Hi Len

This surely bodes poorly for the coming winter....Be thankful you have prepared yourself with the generator etc..

Just wonder if you couldn`t knock some of the snow odd the prized trees....I know myself I prize all the trees, so that is a bad thing.....Tony

houdini1

I was able to save some trees back in 1996 by knocking snow off them. We had an incredible 13" of snow around Oct 23rd that year. A real freak storm. Many broken limbs because trees were still fully leafed, etc. I think it got up to about 50 degrees the next day.

My wife walked by just now and said, "What are you doing, talking to your imaginary friends"?

cyclone4

For those of us that have an investment in Apple, take a break from watching Apple stock and read these feel good links to remind yourself that the company is still fundamentally rock solid.

Opening weekend iPad sales:
http://www.slashgear.com/apple-sells-3m-new-ipads-in-opening-weekend-05255633/

iPad Mini reviews:
http://www.slashgear.com/ipad-mini-review-apple-aims-for-the-everyman-30254875/

http://www.theverge.com/2012/10/30/3576178/apple-ipad-mini-review

4th gen iPad reviews:
http://www.slashgear.com/ipad-review-4th-gen-big-tablet-bigger-speed-30254851/

http://www.theverge.com/2012/10/30/3572974/apple-ipad-review-4th-generation

houdini1

I bought more today at $539. I am in for the long haul.

anthonyp

Well I`m real, and a friend Tony ps aapl has taken a pounding, and I have a `mad` grandson I told him I wasn`t perfect

gagrice

The stock market has always been a crap shoot. If I was convinced Obama would win I would have jumped on Ruger big time. It has gone up from $44 to $49.94 in the last two days. You want to talk about performance. They are backordered more than 1 million guns. And they are all made in the USA which makes them a great company in my book.
Their line of .22 auto pistols are the most fun to shoot of any gun I have used.

houdini1

I like Ruger also. Love my Bearcat. On their auto pistols, they seem to have a rather hard trigger pull and disassembly and assembly is awkward.

houdini1

Wow. Why would Obama rub it in everyone's face like that and kill the rally? Up 70 points to down 10 in about 15 minutes.

ljflx

Because no matter what he says he's anti business and anti wealth. You should see the comments in the NY Times. One reader wants all liberal policies established immediately and for us to go back to Kennedy and Eisenhower marginal tax rates of over 70%. The idiot that wrote that should realize that'll send all money overseas and cause a nice 40% or so employment rate.

ljflx

Tony,

The trees snapped back up except for a branch on each tree. Neither seems broken but I have to wait for snow to melt to see for sure. Snow in my immediate area is slow to melt and I'm still loaded with it right now. It looks surreal to see it on the ground with the trees in my backyard still so colorful - at least in their lower branches. One thing I'm really greatful about is that I got my roof repaired this past Saturday.

Charlie - I only measured a few gusts over 30. Most winds were 15-20 with gusts in the 20's. The colder nature of the storm kept strongest winds offshore. The NWS in Mt Holly kept us in only a winter weather advisory while conditions were horrendous. Late at night when no one was there to notice they finally changed it to a winter storm warning (whatever happened to the heavy snow warning nomenclature?). As someone on a local board noted - they must have finally looked out the window. The problem we have here is that our winter weather fits closer to NYC and the part of NJ just west and southwest of NYC (whereas summer fits Philly better) and Mt Holly basically forecasts for Philly and Atlantic City and overlooks this area and is bad with NW NJ also. Philly got a trace of snow from this storm.

anthonyp

I plan on getting a 22 next year---hand gun---If you own Ruger stock, I`l buy a Ruger.....I`m not interested in guns , as some people are, but appreciate them....We don`t even lock the door at the farm, but I do think it prudent to have a pistol , as I have seen a pack of wild dogs, and they chased me many years ago back into the truck....Strange event....Tony

anthonyp

That`s good news about your trees .....You might consider giving the branch some additional support, in the way of a wire tied to the weaker limb, with a piece of old hose used as a sling....to help with further snows later this winter.....I personally think it worth the effort to protect special trees, that give so much pleasure.....

You must be very proud of the generator...Man what a good thing one of them are...Tony ps I think it a poor policy aapl has not to give any update to their iphone situation......I personally have thought they made a hasty move and now can`t supply ....They could be a bit more aggressive for you guys who have been loyal stock holders..As I said you all have `earned` every penny along the way.....Grandson was happier today

cyclone4

Tony,

The supply constraint problem with iPhone 5 will be going away in the next few weeks I believe. In fact, here is an article today that says that supplies are slowly increasing and the wait is starting to decrease.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-breaks-losing-streak-analyst-180259888.html

gagrice

Anyone have their financial adviser suggest getting out of the Stock market before the end of the year? Mine is advising all their clients to go into cash until the whole crisis in the Federal tax code is resolved. Probably not until next year first quarter.

Their premise is Capital gains will go up next year. How much is a good question? They feel the financials across the board are pretty good. It is the UNCERTAINTY in Washington that has them spooked. Could be the reason AAPL has been going down against all indicators.

By the way. I have settled on the Smartphone for me. Fits nicely in my hand and eazy to read. Will wait till first of year when the dust settles and Costco has them for less.

Can anything stop the runaway success train of the Samsung Galaxy Note 2 at the moment? The device has just amassed a cool 3 million sales since going on sale and the device hasn’t even become available on all US carriers yet. Verizon Wireless are seemingly keeping Note 2 release information a close guarded secret for now, but is there a clear black and white sign emerging that the Galaxy Note 2 is going to be the most popular smartphone ever in 2012, even eclipsing the iPhone 5?

http://www.product-reviews.net/2012/11/13/samsung-galaxy-note-2-to-lead-with-mul- ti-carriers/

gagrice

I forgot this article:

For many of the wealthy, 2012 is becoming a good year to sell.

They're worried about the "fiscal cliff," which is when tax cuts expire and spending cuts are set to go into effect at the end of the year.

Fearing an increase in capital gains and dividend taxes, many of the rich are unloading stocks, businesses and homes before the end of the year.

Wealth advisors say that with capital-gains taxes potentially going to 25 percent from 15 percent, and other possible increases in the dividend tax, estate tax and other taxes, many clients are selling now to save millions in taxes.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49792979

kyfdx

many clients are selling now to save millions in taxes.


How many clients can save "millions in taxes"? If you assume the capital gains tax will go up by 10% (a big assumption..), then you'd have to show a $10MM gain, just to save $1 million..

Unless you have a stock that you've held for years and years, and you are pretty sure you are going to sell it within a year, anyway.... then, making a decision to sell, based on the capital gains tax possibly rising might be self-defeating..

I did notice several insider trades in the Wall Street Journal today.... Huge sales by CEOs and company founders, that resulted in proceeds of $20MM to $50MM... It might make sense for those guys.... But, they probably need to diversify, anyway...

gagrice

If I claim $100k in capital gains this year vs next I could save as much as $10k. Not chump change to a low roller such as myself.
Plus living in CA with a super majority of tax and spend Democrats who knows what will happen?

kyfdx

$100K in capital gains? So, a long term holding that you are up 30% on.... So, that would be $400K in gross proceeds?

That's a lot of stock to sell, to lock in a $10K gain in your tax bill... And, that's assuming the actual increase in the capital gains tax in your bracket is a full 10% (the models I've seen in the WSJ are more like 3.8% on average)..

If you wouldn't sell your stock in the next year, then making buy/sell decisions based on the tax rate may hurt you in the long run... Held stock generates ZERO capital gains...

I get your point on living in CA.. but, if you are dumping $400K of stock next month.. then, you've lost your "low roller" status.. (I also agree that $10K is not chump change)

gagrice

The other issue is stocks going down with all the dumping going on. We have a gain going for the year. But a downward trend the last two weeks. I did not sell anything in the 2008 downturn and have never regained my IRA position from the peak in October 2007. My buddy did liquidate in 2008 and did not get back in before the market was well on the way. So he is slightly behind me. I have sold all this morning. It including many bits and pieces all the way back from the AT&T divestiture. I just sold "T" we have had since I worked for Bell in the 1960s. I was tired of looking at 18 shares of this and 13 shares of that. When the dust settles we can start a new. Do our research and not sweat the mess in Washington DC over the Holidays.

ljflx

This is definitely a serious concern. You have a president who's intent is to raise taxes and while the republicans will oppose it and do everything they can to limit it the issue is that investors and speculators will not stand around and wait for this crawling turtle of a government we have to make a decision, if they even can. I converted half of my stock holdings in my annuities, deferred income and 401K funds to cash before the elections as I feared an Obama victory and a selloff in stocks because of the higher taxes he wants. The higher taxes won't effect those holdings but the fallout will. I'm going to put the money back in stocks but not until the fiscal cliff and tax issues are resolved. I may sell out the other half as well because the liberal forces are pushing so hard for taxes to go up and this will drive the market lower and lower. On my business side we froze 3 expensive jobs that we were intending to hire and that we budgeted for until we get clarity on taxes. This is happening everywhere in small business. If taxes go up those jobs are gone or maybe we hire one of the three positions we put in the budget for next year.

gagrice

Everything I am hearing from friends in business parallels your position. We have really had uncertainty since 2007 when the Democrats took control of Congress with the mandate to raise taxes on those they consider rich. And the economy has waffled along ever since. The companies making money are mostly doing so without the help of USA labor. I think the Congress will let the Bush tax cuts lapse, then go in next year and cut some of them, to play politics for their voting bases. Again who knows what will happen. We may have two more years of the same, until mid term elections.

I am already lining out some stocks I would like to purchase.

In my little village our Truevalue Hardware store is closing after 37 years in business. In the same strip mall a BBQ place is closing after 32 years. Both say they can no longer compete. The rents are running some of the local businesses out. If CA dumps prop 13 on commercial buildings, rents will skyrocket. More businesses will close.

ljflx

And here's a good example of what happens when our government thinks it can run things. Just read this story in todays NY Times about the flood insurance program. People get re-imbursed for property loss whether they have insurance or not, whether they followed the army corp of engineers advice or not etc etc. Whole communities fought against the army corp of engineers recommendation of securing the water front with sandbags. I felt so bad for the people that lost their homes and possessions but knowing that some people had no insurance and fought army engineer advice adds in the reality that some of these people were irresponsible. These paragraphs from the article show how bad the government is at business:

Perhaps the most troubling problem, program officials acknowledge, is that only a tiny share of enrolled properties accounts for a giant share of the overall claims, as the properties are repeatedly flooded and rebuilt in low coastal regions and in hurricane flight paths.

One Biloxi, Miss., property valued at $183,000 flooded 15 times over a decade, costing the program $1.47 million, according to federal data provided by the agency to a member of Congress. Another in Humble, Tex., has resulted in over $2 million in flood payouts even though it was worth just $116,000.

What private or public business would ever insure such homes? Imagine re-imbursing a property owner who had 15 flooding claims in 10 years that ended up costing 10X his property value? The one in Texas is even worse. They want to raise taxes and hurt small business, jobs and the economy for programs like this. If people go against the army corp of engineers advice or have no insurance they don't deserve the insurance protection the government gives them with our tax money.

Full story:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/13/nyregion/federal-flood-insurance-program-faces- - - - - -new-stress.html?ref=todayspaper

gagrice

Don't get me started on that issue. Like rebuilding in the 9th Ward of New Orleans. That will be completely under water in not too many years. Wasting money rebuilding in known flood zones is crazy. When I was looking at property in Central Florida, I passed because it was right after hurricane Andrew. The insurance companies were not writing new policies in many parts of Florida. I see no reason for the tax payers to rebuild uninsured homes in places that should not be built on. I have passed on several good buys where it looked marginal for flooding. My son and I are partnering buying and refurbishing homes in Southwest Indiana and right across the border in KY. Many were flooded last year with the 100 year Ohio River flooding. You can buy them cheap and there is good reason for that.

ljflx

Good story here on why Apple is so seriously undervalued. Note the comments on Amazon. I couldn't agree more with them and I think at some future point Amazon share price could get cut by 67%. They have deteriorating margins and now they have losses. When they return to profitability they will likely have very low margins. In the end they are a retailer and should trade at retailer margins. If you are in it ride the wave but keep your eyes open for an exit point.

The comment on Apple's taxes causing them to report lower income than cash flow (thereby making their undervalued stock price a lower multiple yet) is very telling. I've been following Apple's cash flow for years and every quarter and every year it exceeds net income, sometimes substantially. The last quarter was the exception but that's because receivables jumped $4.6bln and they were likely quickly converted to cash right after the quarter. The only reason they jumped is the iPhone was shipped late in September and there was not enough time to collect the receivables.

http://beta.fool.com/equitybull/2012/11/13/apple-target-hit-pe-5-2014/16376/?tic- - - - ker=AMZN&source=eogyholnk0000001

anthonyp

Many people just don`t want flood insurance.....The greedy government and financial institutions many many years ago,, worked in collusion to force everyone to buy it.....In my situation, I built the farm office, and just wanted fire protection and liability..Very reasonable premium , and they said everyone in the county had to have flood insurance, or the county could not then get it for themselves...Back then it cost very very little, like a hundred fifty dollars or so.....

As they years went by, and the program grew and grew, the finance companies insisted you have flood if you wanted to borrow any money.....All this was suppose to be because the insurance companies just wanted to not insure anyone for flood...It has now grown to a monster, along with all the government programs.....A shame imo....

I am all for our government helping any citizens and people who are impacted by calamity---Californians, Ohio, New Jersey , New York , Mass, etc but I do think the sub standard houses in a bad flood plains should not be allowed to rebuild, and also the people impacted by that to get a reasonable amount of money in compensation...If they did not want to sell then they should not be forced to sell, but neither should anyone have to insure them.....People can take care of themselves if they are forced to Tony

cyclone4

I converted half of my stock holdings in my annuities, deferred income and 401K funds to cash before the elections as I feared an Obama victory and a selloff in stocks because of the higher taxes he wants.

Len, I presume this does not include AAPL, right? I can't imagine you have sold half of your Apple stock, but I don't know for sure. The 40 shares I sold at $619, have been re-purcahsed at $595 and $579 (20 shares at each level). Therefore, I have the same number of shares as when the price hit $705 (wow, that looks good now!).

The article from the Motley Fool is extremely convincing that we will be in good shape with AAPL in the long run. However, those holding AMZN could be in deep trouble. I obviously agree with both cases.

Here is an article (Motley Fool once again) stating that perhaps this is the perfect time for Apple to finally revolutionize the TV market.

http://beta.fool.com/insidermonkey/2012/11/13/now-time-mega-tech-company-make-tv- /16329/?ticker=AAPL&source=eogyholnk0000001

cyclone4

I am all for our government helping any citizens and people who are impacted by calamity---Californians, Ohio, New Jersey , New York , Mass, etc but I do think the sub standard houses in a bad flood plains should not be allowed to rebuild, and also the people impacted by that to get a reasonable amount of money in compensation...If they did not want to sell then they should not be forced to sell, but neither should anyone have to insure them.

Tony, I am in total agreement with your thinking (as well as Len's above) here. If a house keeps flooding on multiple occasions due to its location, then forget about it. Move on!

ljflx

No - I haven't sold Apple. It's probably about to go on a major bull run back to $700 IMO. Would have been a lot smarter of both of us to sell when it was over $700 and buy back here. I always play with my mutuals if I think something is amiss because they are pre tax.

kyfdx

I did not sell anything in the 2008 downturn and have never regained my IRA position from the peak in October 2007. My buddy did liquidate in 2008 and did not get back in before the market was well on the way. So he is slightly behind me.

I'm surprised you aren't back above the peak... I stayed fully invested, and my 401K is well ahead.. Of course, I'm still adding to it, so it's a little harder to track the overall performance. My company cut the 401K match for 2009 (right at the trough!), and I increased my contribution to make up for it... Our company stock hit a low in March that year, and being down 50% on what I already owned, I couldn't pull the trigger on buying more... That was a mistake, as it has nearly tripled since then...

If I was more of a player, I think I'd buy put options on the S&P, and see where that took me for the next couple of months.. But, that always seems an expensive bet to make, when it doesn't pay off..

I'm not smart enough to time the market, so I don't try.. Just keep plugging the money into my 401K, and keep it at least 95% in equities... It's worked out well, over the last 25+ years..

I did close on an apartment complex with 3 other partners, back in May.. I'm very happy with that... We are hoping/expecting/shooting for returns in the 15%-20% range....

gagrice

I stopped contributing when I retired in 2006. I am over double from what was contributed into the 401K. I invested about 80% in FLPSX starting around 1998. It went to the sky and fell to the bottom. It has made good gains over the last 2 years. Still about $8 per share below the 2007 peaks. It is all in cash now. I don't want to ride it down again next year. I have to start taking out next year. So am looking at a couple different options. Being mostly cash makes that much easier. I have very little faith in our Government over the last few years. Real Estate is about all we have that is making us any return.

kyfdx

I agree... real estate looks great... It takes a chunk of cash to really make it work, though.. I had some, and I'm hoping for big things.... the nice thing with putting it there, is we don't spend it...

My 401K is all in Vanguard mutual funds... but, I switched my IRA to mostly blue chip, dividend payers.. and, I've been happy with that...

I guess my point was.. make your investment decisions based on the return.. and, let the taxes take care of themselves.. High rollers may have a different agenda...

regards,
kyfdx

gagrice

Interestingly, the only positions in our Scottrade account that appreciated over the last 10 years were dividend paying stocks. Looking at the profit loss for all the positions sold, not a single mutual fund was in the black. They are all ones recommended by my wife's various financial advisers over the last 25 years. The two best I had her get into back around 2003 was McDonald's and Alexander and Baldwin. Both have done very well. Both paid decent dividends and have appreciated.

My son has a couple houses in Indiana he wants us to buy for remodel, then do a lease option. There are so many people that bailed out on upside down loans and cannot qualify for a new home loan. Yet they are doing fine paying high rents. Giving someone a second chance while making some return on investment with rent or 1st mortgages is where my cash is directed now. Banks are not interested in lending on fixers and they are in abundance. We are talking buying homes potentially worth $100k for $25k. Put in another $25k and double your money in a year or two.

houdini1

I bought more aapl recently. My overall average price is $600. at this point. Obviously I an underwater with my current aapl holdings right now but have high hopes that this will change. I took profits on aapl earlier in the year so I am still in the black with aapl for the year so far. Google may hurt aapl with their new $250. chromebook.

As a saftey and tax hedge I bought muni bond funds about a month ago. They have actually done quite well so far. If it looks like a deal will get done on the fiscal cliff I will sell them immediately.

Son #2 and I made a very nice profit this year on a house rehab. Worked out great. We are currently about 3/4's of the way with rehabbing house #2 and it is looking good. We are a good team as I act as the banker and he does 90% of the work.

Aapl is like a yoyo today. Strange times indeed. Good luck to everyone.

ljflx

Obama wants $1.6 trillion in tax increases?? Is he out of his mind? Where does he expect that money to come from? Say goodbye to the economy and jobs being created. This is a man who is headed to the outer solar system left. He says one thing and does another. He's supposedly wants job creation and sets an anti small business policy on taxes. I mean a real small business that hires people not your corner candy store or tailor. He said today he won't compromise on rates. They must go up. I hope he's willing to accept a .5 rate increase because the higher those rates and limitations on deductions go the worse the economy will be. He also said nothing about spending cuts to trim the deficit. It shows you where his mind is. The left does not want any part of spending cuts and Obama is caving to them rather than being a more moderate liberal.

It is amazing that we have a fed that wants to flood the economy with free money to get it moving and on the other side is a president that is doing everything he can to kill the economy. He opens his mouth today and the market tanks because now it sees us going over the fiscal cliff and gettng a higher unemployment rate at the same time.

Charlie - you're the only Obama fan on this board. What's your thoughts on him now. I'll tell you I talked with a colleague that runs a $25mln manufacturing business today and he just ordered a new budget with spending cuts and guess where they are coming from.

kyfdx

I wish I had the talent and time for a hands-on operation like that... You can really score big, if you have the funds and know what you are doing...

I am very happy to be invested in these apartments, even though I have nothing to do with day-to-day management... It's a 144 unit complex (12 buildings)... It has a good track record, and while it might not be a home run, it's nice to be diversified from equities...

robr2

Obama wants $1.6 trillion in tax increases??

That's over the next 10 years. Further, it's the opening number in a negotiation with Congress. It'll settle somewhere between that and the $800 million in increases that Congress has proposed.