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Comments
Houdini - definitely IMO he doesn't know how to negotiate. What did he ever really run before his first term? If you don't run anything you don't know how to negotiate. I don't think the party really wanted Hillary in because she'd have followed her husbands lead on much more moderate policies and she'd have told the far left to go to hell. She's got a much tougher make-up than Obama and would have been a much better president. I agree with Gary that Obama will have a legacy of dividting the US more than any other president but that'll be in addition to running up the greatest deficits ever.
One thing I hope comes out of all this is they do away with the absurd electoral college system we currently have. My wife dragged me to the polling booth but I wasn't even going to bother voting because in my state your vote doesn't matter. I'm sure many who are the opposite of how red and blue states go feel the same way. It's absurd that a democrat already has nearly 100 votes in their pocket from NY and California while a republican has Texas' 38 votes in their pocket before a vote is even cast. The whole campaign now comes down to 9 or 10 swing states while the votes in the rest of America are meaningless. The only solution I see is go with the popular vote or force the electoral vote to go to the candidate with the highest popular vote count. That'll ensure that every vote matters and result in higher voter turnout.
People need to plan ahead and pass this stuff along before the day comes.
Oh well, the same corporations and special interests feast at the trough no matter who wins, in a two party system, anyway.
The empty suit that was more palatable to more people than the other won, and it doesn't look like the world has lost faith in the US just yet. Maybe it's more of a tempest in a teapot. The opposition needs to put up or shut up, and provide some financial details that don't rely on trickle down style dreams. The markets didn't vomit the day after election day...maybe not a lost cause.
So this will only apply if he dies and if the estate tax goes up - am I right? With proper financial planning he should be able to transfer his ranch to his heirs before his death and protect his estate.
BTW - he's pretty lucky to have inherited the ranch two years ago. That's earning money the old fashioned way.
No - not possible. The gift tax limitations apply.
That is my understanding as well. I think the only option is the Joe Kennedy rules. Stash your assets off shore and dole them out to the heirs from a trust.
I don't think legally you can give more than $13k to a child or heir without them being liable for the income tax.
Fin, the market dropped 700 points since Obama was elected. I don't find that comforting.
It's quite possible to give property away through trusts, skipping generations, forming a company and selling shares at a low price, et al.
Probably are some important bundlers that lived there and donated. And there probaby are some kickbacks from any deals he can faciliate with businesses back here. And maybe he can garner even more foreign money for donations to the liberal democrat causes in upcoming elections. And it gives the simple-minded media something to talk about instead of Benghazi and the fiscal cliff.
Overall the legacy is really lacking. It makes Carter look competent.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
NOT A FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL
The person receiving the gift does not pay any income tax no matter the amount of the gift. The gift tax - if any - is paid by the person making the gift but only if they exceed the lifetime gift limit.
The annual limit is $13K per child and spouse or grandchild by parent and spouse. So he and his wife can gift each child, their spouse and each grandchild $13K each every year without any penalty.
If they give more, than the amount over counts towards the lifetime gift limit which right now is $5.12 million. When that amount is reached, then a gift tax is levied but it comes in under the estate tax.
It's all rather complicated but when handled properly by a tax professional, he should be able to avoid taxes.
But let's talk stocks:
50% of my paper gain on AAPL is gone.
All my gains on GM are gone.
FB is almost back up to it's bump from 4 weeks ago.
I don't understand the market.
While we know what the federal estate tax rules will be until the end of 2012, what will happen in 2013 and beyond is still up in the air. Under current law the estate tax exemption is scheduled to drop significantly from $5,120,000 in 2012 to $1,000,000 in 2013, and the estate tax rate is scheduled to jump from 35% to 55%. (For a summary of the 2013 rules that will apply without additional action from Congress and President Obama
I still find it hard to believe that poor victimized lucky sperm club member/landholder/"farmer" doesn't have plenty of options to distribute the assets before he's gone. If anything, "sell" it all to his spawn and never actually collect the money, nobody will know. OR just set up a trust, it's the thing to do for those not in the 47% who think they "built it".
They were up against a very strong pair of opponents: the Chicago Democrat Machine and the Mainstream Media.
The MSM is relevant here because they also work for and against the Apple stock, which is fairly popular on site. The MSM has been a factor in people's believing things were getting better. Missing this time were the continual dribbling of human interest stories showing a homeless mother of 2 and detailing her story or how hard it is because of the government not providing enough for her. Those were present during the previous regime's 8 years. Missing this time were stories about how many jobs were looming to be lost after the election--it's already started, but was hidden from many people's reality because of the news coverage.
>And failing to be able to beat the ineffective regime
Always lots of criticism of both parties: what would be Fintail's ideal government with names and positions? What would make the stock market boom after their first two years?
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Pelosi - "We have to pass the healthcare bill to see what's in it"
It's like saying in business you have to buy a company blind so you can see what it's financials say.
Obama - "if you have a successful business you didn't build it, government built it for you."
Incredible. We elected these people again. The MSM portrayal of things in this election was unbelievable. It was worse than I could have ever imagined. The NY Times gave almost no coverage to the Libyan embassy bombing and wrote scathing articles on Romney every day. In fact they ramped it up after the first debate because of the threat Romney became. And their statements initially about the first debate were as stupid as it gets. The next morning they reported the debate meant nothing and they were so delusional that they said Obama performed well in it. Never did they say a thing that was really positive about Obama's first 4 years (what was there to say). So they just covered his campaign and wrote multiple daily stories that belittled Romney almost to a childish level of hostility. There was no responsibility in their writing and most certainly no fairness. They also portrayed the drop in unemployment to 7.8 very positively but if you looked through the paper you found the second story that did say it was due to 900,000 people taking themselves off the job hunting business and becoming self employed. The sad thing is this will all repeat again in 4 years in just about the same manner.
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/analyst-apple-selloff-is-insanely-insane.html- - - /
BTW - The Apple store at the mall yesterday was more crowded than I ever saw it. I wanted to buy something but I'll do it today instead. IMO - the main reason for the selloff in Apple is tied to the fiscal cliff and LT cap gains tax going up. The stock was undervalued at $700 and sold off "insanely" with virtually no change in fundamentals. There was a lot of talk that hedge funds were looking to shake out folks for a buying opportunity around $600 but the selloff went far beyond that. Just a feeling that the cap gains tax will not develop or be as bad as expected is probably worth 100 points to this stock.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1017841-apple-by-the-numbers?source=yahoo
The other thing of note here is that the $121bln in cash was probably $126bln about a week after the quarter ended. That's because receivables in the quarter ended Sept 30th jumped $5bln as Apple shipped the iPhone 5 in the last week of September and didn't have enough time to collect the receivables.
Glad I put my other 50% of mutuals back to work.
Now all of a sudden all the talk on Apple is positive. It turned on a dime. The media is amazing. I didn't buy anymore as I have so much but I hope some got in at $525. That was an incredible steal price on this stock.
50% of my paper gain on AAPL is gone.
All my gains on GM are gone.
FB is almost back up to it's bump from 4 weeks ago.
I don't understand the market.
I'm sure that you feel better about the market and Apple in particular today. As I stated last week, I feel very confident that Congress and the President will reach a compromise to avoid the dreaded fiscal cliff. This is what the market also believes today.
Hopefully, we have seen the low in AAPL, but I am not as confident in that as I am that a compromise will be reached sooner rather than later. The reason I am not as confident about AAPL is because I thought on several occasions now over the past month or so that that the low was in only to be proven dead wrong. However, in the long term, I am pretty confident that we have NOT seen the high in Apple. Their earnings reports will still be awesome in the coming months. There is great demand for the iPhone 5, the iPad, and now for the iPad Mini.
I did not realize there were a bunch of posts here this morning. I refreshed the site about an hour ago and the last post it showed was from yesterday (weird).
Len, I was watching CNBC back on Friday when Apple was coming out of the depths of despair and was trading slightly higher. On the after-hours, they had on one analyst (don't remember his name) who supposedly nailed the huge sell-off in AAPL when he was saying it was a sell from back in April. And, that Melissa Lee just let him get away with it without a comeback question. Hello!! what was the price of AAPL back in April? Without looking at the record, I'm sure it was something like $500-520 (In fact it may have been under $500 at some point in April). So he nailed it from back in April? What did AAPL do after his supposed great prediction. Oh yes. It only reached $705. Now if this guy had said, "now (when it was at $700) is the time to short the crap out of AAPL", it would be a different story, but he was referring to his April "sell". And by the way, he was still saying back on Friday that AAPL is still a great sell. We'll see about that.
PS..Len, I finally placed the order to buy Wagyu burgers and steaks from Allen Brothers back on Friday. I had to place the order by phone since the Wagyu ordering page online was not working. My order came out to about $230. It will be delivered (free shipping) this Wednesday and I am really looking forward to it.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AAPL+Interactive#symbol=aapl;range=1y;compare- - =;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=- - undefined;
I stand corrected on the AAPL price range during April. However, my point is still valid. Why didn't Lee ask this guy what about the fact that AAPL reached a high of $705 after his sell recommendation?
Here is another article on Apple from today:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/richardsaintvilus/2012/11/19/why-apple-touching-bott- om-is-the-wrong-question-to-ask/?partner=yahootix
The waste and stupidity of government insurance money:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/19/science/earth/as-coasts-rebuild-and-us-pays-ag- ain-critics-stop-to-ask-why.html?ref=todayspaper&_r=0
The rush out of stocks and LT investments because of feared higher taxes:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/19/business/investors-rush-to-beat-threat-of-high- er-taxes.html?adxnnl=1&ref=todayspaper&adxnnlx=1353362408-jFgk6dq2BggZhT37YcdDog-
I am in total agreement with you and others about this incredible waste by the government. How many times do these people need to get bailed out? The gov. needs to rethink its policies on this.
The rush out of stocks and LT investments because of feared higher taxes:
This article is excellent and it makes a lot of sense as to why people have been rushing to sell their stocks (like AAPL). However, I believe that there will be a compromise on capital gains tax hikes and these folks that have been selling will be quickly buying back.
Ideal government - fiscally responsible (no policeman ideal, no foreign dictation of American policy, no desire to either create an underclass welfare state or perpetual coddling of the rich), socially logical (no expensive hypocritical puritanism) - create that and find a place where ideas can really thrive, a real boom as monies could be put to constructive use other than subsidizing preferred industries and pseudo-nations. Names and positions? Are you insane? Virtually no existing politicos on either side could come close to that legel of logic and accountability.
Without publicly funded or subsidized infrastructure (of all sorts from education to roads to power grid) and so many years of sweetheart federally backed business loans, indeed none of that would be "built". That some of these people, especially an older generation who made theirs during a period of unrepeatable economic expansion, and now that they have their gold say to hell with everyone else, pretend that they stoically and singlehandedly "built" it, is mystifying. To paraphrase an old quote, nobody talks more about hard work and "winning" than the man who inherited a farm or store from his father.
What is more incredible is that the opposition blundered their way through the latest fight and made nothing but mistake after mis-speak. The onus was on the opposition, and once again they failed to put up, likely because they simply lack a credible stable personality.
Charlie,
They will probably buy back one way or another (slow if the action is delayed, fast if it is prompt) but the point here is that they are not about to wait for a compromise to happen and probably have had little faith in such a thing happening until - perhaps - yesterday. I'm sure that it's like walking on eggs even after yesterday. One hard position taken by either side will lead to a rush for the exits again and in fact a high percentage have yet to walk back into the game. We've got a month or so to go and I doubt we'll have a solution until very late December if we have one at all. Both parties are more married to their concepts than they are the good of the country. Only when their parties are threatened or their inactions are very severe do they finally act. We need three parties - badly.
That bunch of losers are more worried about reading our emails than getting decent tax reform accomplished.
CNET has learned that Patrick Leahy, the influential Democratic chairman of the Senate Judiciary committee, has dramatically reshaped his legislation in response to law enforcement concerns. A vote on his bill, which now authorizes warrantless access to Americans' e-mail, is scheduled for next week.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-57552225-38/senate-bill-rewrite-lets-feds-read- -your-e-mail-without-warrants/?part=rss&subj=news&tag=title
When Joe Kennedy set up his various trusts, they was designed to take care of his Heirs forever. The heirs do pay tax on what they get each year. I remember JFK complaining about the IRS taking 50% or his $400k per year handout. The Kennedy trusts have a group of people that take care of them, and very closely guarded.
Of course you could luck out like Steinbrenner's family, and die while Congress and the President had their heads up you know where.
Forbes recently estimated the Yankees owner’s net worth at $1.1 billion, largely from the YES network. The New York Yankees, which he acquired in 1973 for $10 million, are now worth $1.6 billion but are 95% leveraged due to debt from the new Yankee Stadium, according to Forbes.
Because Steinbrenner died in a year when there is no federal estate tax, he potentially saved his heirs a 55% estate tax on his assets — or a tax bill of about $600 million.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/18/natural-gas-drilling-obama_n_2154655.ht- ml?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003
An outrageous comment for a nonpolitical discussion topic.
> I am willing to pay a higher tax rate
You are very welcome to send a check to the Treasury with whatever extra money YOU choose to donate. As for the rest of us, the tax and spend folks always way to spend someone else's money--they are welcome to spend their own.
>This is a very balanced article
In the Huffington Post? "Huffington Post" and "balanced" is an oxymoron.
Gasoline is the highest it's ever been at Thanksgiving. 2 weeks ago we had prices 60 cents lower for 10 days before the election, more or less, in middle Ohio. Odd, isn't it.
>And, the election was NOT rigged.
That's a very broad statement. I know of improprieties in the voting within my own state from sources other than just the MSMedia or the Party's propaganda. I did hear from people studying the data that 400,000 was the total votes by which the Admin won in the 4 swing states. Ours is one of those. Not a mandate.
All of these will be factors in how well the Administration this time handles the fiscal cliff. When the Senate refuses to move any House-passed bills, pass a budget, etc., for 4 years, there is a problem. When the Prez can't negotiate without going back to his handlers and then renegging on his earlier compromise, the government isn't going to present the mandate of the people in electing the members of the House, Senate, and Presidency.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Well, that happened years (if not decades) ago, which is why the deficit is where it is and the rate of increase is where it is. I don't see either coming down anytime soon.
The house of cards will eventually fall. Who benefits when that happens? Not me.
But some/many will. Who are they, you might ask?
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Members of Congress are much richer than you and me.
With a median net worth of $878,500, Democratic lawmakers were actually worth more than nine times the typical American household in 2010. Not bad for the party that positions itself as the defender of the middle class.
And where did these folks in Congress get their wealth?
This week, DC policy wonks at The Hill produced their top 50 richest dudes in Congress list. Of note, a third at the top owe the bulk of their fortunes to their spouses or family rather than through the fruits of their own labor.
Only half in the top 10 have earned their net worth the old fashion way: they’ve actually earned it through running a business and through savvy investments.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2012/08/22/of-top-ten-richest-guys-in-cong- ress-only-half-earned-their-net-worth/
I won't expand on the Fraud this election. It may be the worst in US history.
Some may differ, but we all have much to be thankful for...Tomorrow is my favorite .....Tony
Happy Thanksgiving to you and everyone here as well. We have great differences from a political point of view but let's face it. We all want this nation to be the BEST in the world. We differ on which political philosophy will make/keep us the best.
Note this comment in the article:
I get why the president needs to stress that the wealthy will have to pay higher taxes before he can go to his base for spending cuts to restore long-term fiscal balance. But here’s what I hope we’ll see more from the president: a sense of excitement, a sense that if we can just get this grand bargain done, we can really unlock growth again, we can really, as Mohamed El-Erian, the C.E.O. of the bond giant Pimco, puts it, “restore economic dynamism, ensure financial soundness, and overcome political dysfunction,” which collectively would have a huge stimulative effect. If everyone has to take their castor oil — the rich more, the middle class some — make them feel that it will enable us all to get stronger. Make them feel that we’re embarking on a new journey — not to punish but to solve, not to sock it to the successful but to create more abundance for all. Because the right mix of tax increases, spending cuts and investment incentives will spur more start-ups, lead to more risk-taking, inspire more entrepreneurship and create more jobs. Elections are win-lose, but successful negotiations are always to some degree win-win.
This is a very different approach than Obama's draw the line in the sand thru the media approach. It's the sound proper negotiating approach and the mark of a real leader. Can Obama lead like this? I wish I could say yes. He'd gain a lot of respect from me and probably others if he could. A real leader and not one who is a slave of his party would do this. But in the case of Obama and his put off of everything and inability to seize the moment the last time in his turn down of the grand bargain my real answer to the question of can he lead like this is noooo.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/21/opinion/friedman-obamas-moment.html
Happy Thanksgiving to everyone.
Another good comment there:
"The middle class and the poor have been taking their "castor oil" for thirty years - declining wages and wealth, underfunded pensions or none at all, skyrocketing health care and college tuition costs, crumbling schools in our cities and ever rising poverty levels which mean millions more children go to bed hungry each night.
The best way to get this country going again is to focus on the middle class and those trying to gain access to it. I applaud Chattanooga but they're an outlier. I admire Mr. El-Erian but you omitted the fact that he sees rebuilding the middle class and curtailing income inequality as necessary for future growth. In an open letter to President Obama about how to get the US back on track, he wrote that we need to "restore the flexible functioning of the labor market" as a first priority. We need jobs.
I enjoy reading your columns about places like Chattanooga, Mr. Friedman, but I think you would be wise to visit cities and communities that don't work, where unemployment is well over 10%, where children are being taught in hallways or closets, where there are no new jobs and people are getting poorer, to fully understand what's going on in many parts of America. It would be clear that rebuilding should begin with the middle class and that is what the focus of any "Grand Bargain" should be."
Address those issues, along with defective trade and foreign policy issues bought and paid for by corporations who are people too, and the nation might thrive again.
And even so, it stands a better chance than any legitimate competition. Europe aint gonna do it, no BRICs are going to either.
Well Len, my glass is half full. My belief is that there will be a grand bargain in the near future between the two sides and Obama will have a big part in it and the economy/markets will begin to boom. I honestly believe that the two sides have finally gotten the message.
The NY Times article by Friedman is outstanding, but I think that fintail on his post above also makes some good points concerning the middle class.
Let's all hope that by the 2013 Thanksgiving Eve, we will look back to this evening and say Charlie was right.
PS...You won't believe this but it's true. My hamburgers and steaks from Allen Brothers finally arrived very late this afternoon. The problem was that UPS delivered them to the wrong address about a tenth of a mile from our place. They delivered the box to the same house number but a different street. Amazing!! If it were not for the people living in this house being very honest, we would not have received the box. A couple living in this other house, carried the box over to our house and apologized for opening the box. They thought it was a gift from one of their relatives, but then realized that my name and address was on the receipt. Btw, it was 71 degrees in DSM today. By Friday though, my wife and I will be dressed in Arctic parkas at the ISU - West Virginia game in Ames. A big portion of the nation be able to see this game on ABC starting at 3:30 PM Eastern.
On the Euro the whole country looks warm as hell by late month and early December and in fact it extends well north into Canada. Your area may well get back to 70 after this upcoming cold snap. The NE is the only cold spot but that air is on its way out. Reminds me of last winters warm maps. Any thoughts on the winter? This map on the Euro is certainly not good for oil or natural gas futures. I can't believe +16 temps at 850 in parts of the plains and rockies. For anyone unfamiliar with weather maps that would be mid 90 temperatures if it were summer. In winter - probably mid 70's.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_- - z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20A- - merica!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012112200!!/
You are absolutely correct. Man, it's easy to be a meteorologist these days.
There will indeed be a big time warm-up again in the Midwest and Plains in particular late next week and beyond. But we will freeze our buns off tomorrow. We have been spoiled here by incredibly warm weather in all of the football games the past few years.
As far as the winter is concerned, let's face it. It will by no means be as warm as last winter. However, I do not believe it will be cold either especially here. If anyone in the nation will be cold, it will be you guys there in the Northeast. There will be this Greenland Block (NAO) at times (emphasis on "at times").
I hope we have a milder winter, but if this pattern holds, we may have some extremes in Chas.....Tony
http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-working-on-iphone-5s-2012-11