The Stock Market and Investing

fintail

We all pay for it no matter what. Sadly, I see no proof in the world that the bitterly defeated excuses-filled regime that was unable to ante up enough propaganda to win an election would be handling things any better. It's not like the oxymoron of military justice is going to lower the risks.

imidazol97

The FBI interviewed the guy, putting him on notice to hide what he was doing with regard to his Muslin jihad goals. Dumb.

The current WH is playing Benghazi and trying to make people feel everything is/was under control with reference to terror cells currently here and operating. After all, we got Osama, didn't we, so terrorism is over. :grin

Any distraction from the size of the group operating is welcome so the media can talk about that instead of immigration law change, internet tax, and gun control with less interest from the low information voters.

imidazol97

>I see no proof in the world that the bitterly defeated excuses-filled regime that was unable to ante up enough propaganda to win an election would be handling things any better.

Did somebody say the other party would have done better? There seems to be a persistent mention in posts that they wouldn't have done anything as well as your current group.

fintail

Why whine about the current bozos if another group of at least equally offensive and incompetent bozos would do no better? I am not seeing the logic.

imidazol97

>Why whine about the current bozos admin if another group of at least equally offensive and incompetent bozos would do no better?

That's all we heard from 2000-2008. I don't follow your logic, however.
Not germaine to trending discussion so I won't take the bait.

gagrice

I see no proof in the world that the bitterly defeated excuses-filled regime that was unable to ante up enough propaganda to win an election would be handling things any better.

And that is where you are wrong. The GW Bush administration prosecuted over 2000 white collar criminals. He convicted over 200 CEOs in his 8 years. Obama and his ignorant lackey Holder have not convicted a single white collar criminal. Why is it so hard for Obama to call a terrorist a terrorist. He refused to do so with that Psycho Muslim shrink that killed all those people at Ft Hood. You can defend Obama till you are blue in the face. That will not make him a good President. GW Bush coined the term "War on Terror".

The phrase 'War on Terror' was first used by US President George W. Bush on 20 September 2001.

I don't think Obama would call a Muslim a terrorist if they had murdered his family.

cyclone4

I have found out during the past several years that making political statements here get us nowhere. We all have our opinions on politics and no one is going to change them.

Instead, let's talk about our favorite (or not) stock...AAPL! Back on Friday, I was thinking to myself that I would be adding to my shares of Apple today. However, since I have been taking a beating on the stock the past several months, I decided to not do so. I honestly now feel that we have either reached the low on AAPL or we are very close to it. I have a pretty good feeling about the earnings report tomorrow afternoon. The expectations have been lowering with each passing week. Thus, even if the earnings report is a little below expectations, I think the stock will rally after the report. And, if the report is above expectations, Apple shares will soar tomorrow. It could jump 30-40 points without much trouble at all. Apple's own guidance for the quarter ending June 30 will likely be quite subdued but the market already knows this. I feel that quarters following the June quarter will be exciting for Apple.

I have been dead wrong about AAPL since back in October and November. In recent weeks, I have stated that I am through making predictions about AAPL. But, after an incredible sell-off for the most fundamentally sound company in the world, here i am making another prediction.

My other prediction for the stock market in general has been terrific, if I might say so. I don't remember exactly when, but it was likely a couple months ago when I stated on this Forum that I was very bullish the stock market. In fact, I stated that I saw an extended bull market for several years to come. Yes, we could easily see a 10-15% correction on the Dow, but that would be a great buying opportunity. Remember that I was telling my friends and relatives back in the spring and summer of 2008 to sell every stock they own. I started to get bullish in the market in the spring of 2009 and in fact I started to buy stocks around April 1, 2009. If only I could do as well on my Apple shares :sick: .
But, I do have a better feeling now even for AAPL.

anthonyp

Thanks Charlie---That is a good perspective, and one I share about the over all market.....I too have been wrong about aapl, and that I admit....It has been a humbling time for me---as the `kid` and I share that mistake that I am responsible for....

I unfortunately just don`t trust the company any more....If they increase the div. and if they are forthright about the guidance of the company for the future, I can easily begin to build that trust again...If they don`t then I will have to take my loss and move on.......I bought the stock for a long term holding---I was wrong---I admit it--I am not going to gamble any more on it.......If I owned none, I would buy some for the announcement, as I have done in the past, and been ready to either take a twenty point gain or a loss---either way....

I hope you are right and we do get a good advance, and good guidance.....Tony

cyclone4

Here is an interesting article for you Tony.

http://beta.fool.com/adamlevy/2013/04/22/4-reasons-im-holding-onto-apple/31977/?- source=eogyholnk0000001

anthonyp

Those are good script, and I have read numerous ones along the same lines....I believe it to

The thing is aapl just doesn`t do anything to bolster any positive (or address negative) things.....They are woefully inadequate for share holder relations.....Imagine if I had several thousand shares , and a cost of say five hundred dollars a share----1.5 million .....now down a hundred points...Man I would be hurting, and I really would feel betrayed by this management team......It is them I do not now trust...

As the old saying was Actions Speak Louder then Words.....They need to do something better than they are doing....No matter what I will be along for the ride until I relate to the events coming tomorrow----No meaningful increase in the div, or guidance for the future , and I will wait until all the noise is out, then decide just what to do........If I were younger, I would load up and take the gamble now, but I`m wiser Tony ps good luck

cyclone4

If I were younger, I would load up and take the gamble now, but I`m wiser

Tony, I feel the same way. I cannot make huge gambles any more.

fintail

IIRC, already-dead plane crashing terrorists received visa extensions under that regime. Not exactly the tightest security or best attention to detail.

Slapping hands of corporate criminals is meaningless, remember who controls government.

Who is defending Obummer? Just saying it's a broken system, not a broken regime. Focusing on a symptom doesn't cure a disease. The bitter losers aren't able to ante up anything else, they don't seem to be able to understand "put up or shut up" - same with their miracle economic plan we've never been able to see. Until that changes, we're going to keep doing what we've been doing and getting what we've got.

fintail

But you don't mention the bait I replied to. I took it and am running with it :P

imidazol97

>I took it and am running with it

Okay? Then I'm throwing you back in.

gagrice

Okay? Then I'm throwing you back in.

I'm with you catch and release. Go for the trophy fish. :shades:

imidazol97

> let's talk about our favorite (or not) stock...AAPL!

This discussion should have its name changed to The Apple Market and Investing, grin. There have to be some other stocks worthy of following that investment potential.

Apple seems to have become very stomach acid inducing. I've read about it here for more than a year thinking I might buy some into an account. Then it just seemed too rich for what I thought it could be. Not that my gut feeling on a stock means anything, to wit INTL which I hold now for the dividend since the last block didn't go back up.

If folks want Apple to go up, keep me from buying any. If someone wants it to go down, talk me into buying, because anything I buy probably will go down despite its good position for upside. :grin

Sounds like this upcoming quarter holds little promise for Apple because new products may, may be coming in the following quarter. They don't want to emphasize any zest in upcoming products because it would hurt sales of current product in the upcoming quarter. That from this CNBC video which didn't seem to have the usual political one side or the other positioning on the stock.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000162558

cyclone4

This discussion should have its name changed to The Apple Market and Investing, grin. There have to be some other stocks worthy of following that investment potential.

There is no question that I have personally concentrated on AAPL for the past couple years on this Forum. Yes, I am "married" to Apple and not denying it. However, I have also stated on many occasions since the spring of 2009 that I am very bullish on the market in general. Basically, you could have been buying almost any worthwhile stock (not something like Dell of course since the desktop computer is a dying breed) and make money. I leave it to others to pinpoint individual stocks since I have only really cared about Apple for quite a while now. Perhaps, when Apple goes back up to $700 or even a lot higher and I sell my shares, my mind will then be free to discuss other stocks.

robr2

They announced today higher than expected everything - they've been beaten down about 30% in the past year. Today they got a nice 11% bounce and increased the dividend.

It's at $56 with a median target of $59? Time to walk away? Analysts still say it's a buy....

cyclone4

For what it's worth, my wife says that their stuff is beautiful and last a long time. I know nothing about the company.

ljflx

My wife loves their stuff also.

A hack into the AP twitter acount briefly sent the market down as it said there were two White House bombings. My opinion of hedge funds and their greed is so awful that I wouldn't put it past them to do something like that.

dieselone

For what it's worth, my wife says that their stuff is beautiful and last a long time. I know nothing about the company.

I'd agree. My wife bought me a Coach brown leather belt about 10 years ago that I still wear. It's outlasted just about every other belt I've owned and it's still one of my favorite belts.

ljflx

Coach, Johnston and Murphy and Cole Haan are fabulous brands of leather goods in my experience. I forgot that I've had a coach briefcase for what seems like forever. It'll last a lifetime. I've also had a number of cole haan clothes and coats that I've bought over the years. On the other hand I've bought some expensive Bally and Bruno Magli shoes that wore right out, were uncomfortable and didn't wear well. Yet those brands still command sky high prices. I'm Italian but I stay away from Italian shoes now.

ljflx

NetFlix makes a huge jump on an absurdly low profit report while san disk plummets on a very good one. On $8 mln of profits the market has taken Netflix up $8bln in market cap. The market is just nuts.

http://beta.fool.com/techjunk13/2013/04/22/the-markets-irrational-and-thats-why-- - - it-has-given/31877/?source=eogyholnk0000001

cyclone4

NetFlix makes a huge jump on an absurdly low profit report while san disk plummets on a very good one. On $8 mln of profits the market has taken Netflix up $8bln in market cap. The market is just nuts.

Len, it is totally illogical and that's what drives me nuts about the Wall Street boys. As you have been harping for over a year now, AMZN is another stock that makes zero sense.

Meanwhile, Tony and I are biting our nails in anticipation of the Apple report this afternoon. I am hoping for the best but expecting the worst. One of these times, there will be very good news about Apple and that will be the start of a new, big time uptrend.

robr2

Coach, Johnston and Murphy and Cole Haan are fabulous brands of leather goods in my experience.

I'll agree on the former but will respectfully disagree on the latter two. Years ago, both J&M and CH were quality products. Now both brands are made off shore (along with Bostonian) by contract manufacturers to a price point. Allen Edmonds still makes great shoes here in the United States but you will pay for that quality. I have a pair of 25 year old Bostonians that were made here in the US and still look good.

That being said: I own Cole Haan loafers and for the price they are an excellent value. But I replace them rather than repair them.

I hope I don't sound pompous....considering I now work from home and I'm lucky to get out of my PJ's some days...

cyclone4

Well, the Apple report was bullish overall. The guidance for the next quarter was a little below expectations, but most folks are not surprised by this due to product recycle. Apple also raised the dividend to $3.05 per share and authorized a $60 billion share buyback plan. This is an increase of $50 billion over the previous buyback plan. Overall, I'm pleased.

The stock is trading at about $20 higher in after hours trading right now.

anthonyp

I`m glad the report is out......Really can not have feelings right now, other than the wait for some sort of guidance and words of the future of the company.....I think the buy back is positive, but Jobs would never have done that....For us little fellows, the buy back can really be a misleading thing, as the earnings are basically manipulated....Personally I`l now focus on the gross sales for my overall judgements....

I hope the stock has `legs`after the gyrations are over with in the next few days or weeks....and I hope the management becomes more involved with statements and guidance....Tony

cyclone4

So much for the $20+ higher in after hours trading. It's now a little lower. What a fiasco! Evidently, the traders wanted to hear more detail about innovation down the road. We all know that Apple is not going to give us that kind of detail. I was pleased when Cook stated that Apple has very exciting hardware, software, and services coming out later this year and in 2014, but the traders (at least in after hours) did not give a hoot for that remark.

Let's see how things shake out during the next few days of trading. I still think that the low is now in place for this stock.

anthonyp

If I were a greedy person, and was in the management of aapl, then what they have done is assure themselves of a very bright future......Buy our stock at these prices, give themselves stock compensation, and buy the stock from themselves after announcing something positive....This is what many large companies are doing, and it is why one has to be careful what they invest in.....I swear give the shareholders a meager dividend and buy fifty billion dollars worth of stock with the extra earnings.....Just what Mr. Buffet has suggested....If they did the opposite, then Berkshire would be a big investor...Strange....Tony

ljflx

What I find amazing is that Wall Street expects Apple to create a gigantic new market every 2 years, or maybe even every year. This is of course the same Wall street that will turn $8mln into $8bln on pure speculation and BS.

I was tempted to buy the stock today and when I first heard of them putting a decent chunk of what is now $161 per share or a mere $145bln (they made $8bln in a quarter the real way and with real money) to work instead of collecting dust for ownership I was sorry I didn't. I never bothered to follow the after hous trades once I saw it up $25 but the fact that didn't hold doesn't surprise me. There's nothing wrong with the company. What's screwed up here is Wall street.

anthonyp

You just saved yourself alot of anguish A balanced summary of the events today on Yahoo......Again it is all just a guess.....Maybe some sanity will come into play shortly-

How is the new car? and do you plan on coming to Myrtle this summer? Tony

ljflx

Tony,

I pck up the car tomorrow around this time.

Coming to Myrtle for a wedding in late July. Haven't decided yet if we are coming for a weekend or a week. If we come for a week we'll drive the GL. If a weekend we'l fly down. We're also going to Vegas for a week a month earlier and staying at the Belaggio. I booked a suite as the whle family is travelling.

cyclone4

I consider this guy to be a voice of reason on AAPL.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/apple-s-ship-will-turn-gene-munster-says-3LjFcZtC- SayTO4uOhmun5w.html?cmpid=yhoo

anthonyp

A nice video, and a knowledgable person.....

Some other people said they thought it would be a long summer for aapl holders, and I have a tendency to agree...

A few months ago, I picked what I though a neutral stock---MMM--- and it was trading at a hundred.....I have just been using that as a benchmark ---don`t own any--as I think it to be respective of the economy.....It has slowly increased to one oh seven or so...All easy numbers to remember...:) If I used aapl at say five hundred, all it would have to do would be go up thirty five points to stay with mmm...That can happen in an instant---if aapl got it`s shareholder act together--Of course it has gone down, but it really shouldn`t have, so I`m not counting that...This example may sound strange to a person not really involved with the stock market, but it is what it is, and those with the patience of youth could outlive this decline..

I have learned something from this fumble---for myself--and that is I don`t want to be involved in any stock that could have such a decline...Give the the tired `old horse` who just plods along...The hell with the `thoroughbred`...In fact etf or mutual funds are looking even more attractive than the single stock..

I`m just waiting to try and figure out what to do next...One thing is I will stick with the products, but have an open mind....Tony

imidazol97

Indeed, that was a well done interview. The interviewer brought it two other sources for information. Very well put together.

Thanks for posting the link. Bloomberg does better than CNBC.com with its report.

ljflx

Munsters prediction of unit sales of the iPad and iPhone were a lot better than the rest of Wall street but his margins were too high if I remember right. He's one of the better guys out there. The stock IMO will slowly edge up (though it may be a bit roller coasty for a few weeks) this quarter and then will probably steadily rise after summer. Of course any new product rumor that has real legs could accelerate that.

Wall street expects too much out of Apple and then feeds off of crumbs from others. It expects new life changing products from Apple constantly and then somehow expects its profit margins to stay the same at the same time that it calls for cheaper less profitable products. They want the latter for revenue growth and from slowing market share deterioration and then they cry about lower gross margins. Are they stupid or are they manipulating the news so that they can direct the share price?

With Apple increasing the share buyback the street better put a floor on this thing. Apple is now going to the banks to borrow $60bln. They will have an easy time increasing that to $200bln and having mnagement take control of the company. The valuation on this business is way too low. The street is playing with fire here IMO. The valuation ex-cash is only 4.25X operating income. That is absurdly low. If the stock dropped to $350 it would be 3.7X.

anthonyp

Man this is going to be a fine day for you It really is so nice when your day `comes`.......I saw a couple today , joying the city with the top down....Sleek...:-) Tony

ljflx

I should have picked it up today but my rep was off today. It was 77 degrees here today. Yesterday was a miserable 46 degrees. The next 7 days are supposed to be sunny with 60's and low 70's forecasted. Usually though if we get a west wind we are warmer than any forecast. So I'll be driving with the top down a few times. Today was 15-20 degrees warmer than forecasts from two days ago. Too bad Apple didn't surprise like that.

anthonyp

The last few days down here were down right cold......I`m going to the mountains tomorrow, and it can be like stepping back to winter......Got to get the house opened and help Nature to get things underway Been six months, and I sure miss it......Now up there is where the new car would really shine----winding roads, green pastures and just plain `open air` driving.....

Last year we saw the club of really old Rolls Royce cars.....they meet up there on occasion, and are a really friendly nice group......They would appreciate your car, and you would know it Good Luck Tony

cyclone4

"Munsters prediction of unit sales of the iPad and iPhone were a lot better than the rest of Wall street but his margins were too high if I remember right. He's one of the better guys out there."

I am not sure exactly what he said about gross margins, but I saw him interviewed yesterday prior to the release of the report and he was quite negative on the guidance for the quarter ending on June 30. I really respect Munster a lot.

ljflx

Vivid details in todays NY Times about the pursuit of the Boston marathon bombers last Thursday night. This clears up a lot of earlier details. Also the bombs initially referred to as crude are now being called very sophisticated. The London press had this right on Sunday at a time the american press was calling it amateurish.

Per the Times link below the older brother was just injured by police gunfire in the shootout last Thursday night. He was then run over by his brother and was dragged by the car. A resident on the street described him as tumbling over and over - under the car - as it drove along. One can deduct that getting hit and dragged by the car added substantial injuries on top of the police bullet wounds - and may have even killed him. So the [non-permissible content removed] suffered greatly in his death and it was the younger brother that helped bring about that suffering.

The mother said on Russian television that she will never accept that her sons did the killing. Apparently even an admission by her son to her will not suffice. The woman is in total denial and just cannot deal with the fact that her sons turned into monsters. The older brother was the vicious perpetrator but IMO the younger brother had already become a monster and would have eventually gone the route of the older brother anyway. Anyone that drops a bomb knowingly right behind young children, and then detonates it on purpose, killing and maiming anyone in the area, including the children is a monster.

The FBI really blew this. Now we know that the Russians had 4 contacts with the FBI and CIA about the older brother. How did our intelligence not keep tabs of a guy the Russians were onto as a terrorist??

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/25/us/officers-killing-spurred-pursuit-in-boston-- attack.html?ref=todayspaper&_r=0

robr2

The FBI really blew this. Now we know that the Russians had 4 contacts with the FBI and CIA about the older brother. How did our intelligence not keep tabs of a guy the Russians were onto as a terrorist??

I'm presuming that there are tens of thousands of people that the authorities need to keep tabs on and just don't have the manpower.

ljflx

A great story here re Apple. This article reaffirms my belief. There is nothing wrong with Apple. There is something however seriously wrong with Wall street. I think that when the smoke clears in a year or so we'll look back at this and realize that Apple had excess profits that innovators get for new products that are groundbreaking. Take those excess profits out and re-orrient the growth line without them and you'll see that they never stopped growing at a fast rate. Look at the year or two of innovation lead as bonus money rather than a profit that was expected to maintain itself over the long-term and the Apple earnings chart looks vastly different. Looked at that way Apple should have profit margins of 5-10% over Samsung and they are still some 12-14% higher. The innovation lead gave them a 20-22% higher margin. Wall street may have had it right when it valued Apple at $675-725 as the PE, which looked too low for their profits may have been right if you took out what I am now calling bonus profits for early innovation. it's as if you got a great bonus for a year or two because of an idea that took root. You can't expect to maintain such a great comp level forever once competition copies your idea. For this reason I have little doubt that Apple will return to the $700 level in a year or so, if not sooner. I'm going to buy some more today. I think the stock is a steal now.

We see this in the car industry all the time. Someone brings out a hot seller first and they get a jumpstart owning almost all of the market. Lexus with the RX is an example as is MB with the CLS. But you can't possibly hold that market share and as the market goes cheaper you only follow it carefully because too cheap is a non-profitable area. With MB you wouldn't link the CLS and CLA as the same market. But Wall street links the losing Kindle and the highly profitable 10" iPad as one market. So of course Apple marketshare will shrink. a price dumped product will do that to anyone.

This sentence from the article linked below hits the nail on the head IMO:

"Apple made more money than any other company in the planet, confirmed "new categories" are coming, and demonstrated confidence in the future of the company by initiating the largest buyback in history, and investors weren't satisfied. Rather than assuming Apple knows what it is doing, and is working hard to release "new products," investors are disappointed that Apple isn't meeting deadlines set by investor expectations."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1370331-apple-investors-are-missing-the-big-pict- - - ure?source=yahoo

cyclone4

"Vivid details in todays NY Times about the pursuit of the Boston marathon bombers last Thursday night. This clears up a lot of earlier details. Also the bombs initially referred to as crude are now being called very sophisticated. The London press had this right on Sunday at a time the american press was calling it amateurish."

I don't know what happened to the quote features on this board.

Anyway, I have not had time to read the article, but this does not at all surprise me. As you accurately stated, these two were/are monsters.

cyclone4

"A great story here re Apple. This article reaffirms my belief. There is nothing wrong with Apple. There is something however seriously wrong with Wall street. I think that when the smoke clears in a year or so we'll look back at this and realize that Apple had excess profits that innovators get for new products that are groundbreaking."

I love it. I really want to buy additional shares, but my wife would "divorce" me if I did. I hope you load up Len. As I stated several days ago, I think we have seen the low in AAPL.

Kirstie_H

Some stuff is missing - not deliberately. We've reported it.

anthonyp

Hi Kristie

You have opinions on aapl and I sure would like to hear them Tony

cyclone4

Here is an article along the same lines:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11906135/1/apple-fell-victim-to-index-funds.html?- puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

Kirstie_H

Well, I'm not going to say that I predicted or foresaw the massive drop in stock price, but about 6 months ago, I did list some limitations I saw that could lead to inability to sustain growth.

First and foremost, there's the fact that the "big rush" is over for all existing products, meaning that by now, most of the people who want to own one of their major offerings (iPhone, iPod, iPad) have already purchased one. Thus, the majority of these product sales are now upgrades to existing equipment - the "new to Apple" consumers come in at a trickle, not a heavy flow as before. You've got some die-hards who will upgrade at every chance, but most people are willing to skip at least one generation of upgrades.

Then, you have accessories/add-ons. Once non-Apple accessories became available, the market for sales of Apple-manufactured accessories, which are much more expensive, was bound to slow way down. Hard to get the average consumer to pay Apple prices for headphones, clocks, speakers, chargers, etc., when the non-brand name ones are half price.

iTunes sales - same as the hardware sales. Most consumers have built their "base" library of music & movies already. Now consumers are just buying new stuff that comes out, by and large.

Someone mentioned the Chinese market back then, and I don't know what's happening with that. Haven't kept up with it. But it's not always the easiest and most stable place to do business. You may have plans to launch a product in China by a certain date, but you can't count on it due to factors not available in the free market economies.

Those are my thoughts; whether or not any of what I mentioned has been related to the recent decline, I certainly can't say. And, this is coming from a home with an iPad, iPhone, and 3 AppleTVs, so hard to say we're part of the anti-Apple crowd.

houdini1

Hmmm, in addition to being the best forum barista we have, I see you also know more about aapl than most of us. Your only failing seems to be that you continue to adore those darn Cardinals.

By the way, we are still riding that 1985 World Series trophy around the Kansas City area on a big tractor and whooping it up. SMILEY FACE.