Oh, I certainly don't claim to know any more than anyone... probably less. It's just something my better half and I have bandied about from time to time.
Cardinals fan, a failing? More like an asset. FYI, "asset" is something the Royals don't have in their line-up.
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Drop a couple of letters there, and you'll describe a typical Cardinals fan.. (not you, of course!)
Apple is a consumer products company.. I'd compare them to Sony in the 1980s.... They don't sell a single product that isn't also sold by someone else.. They might be the best and the brightest now, but that won't always be so.. (see Sony)..
Of course, they are printing money right now... but, they have nowhere to invest it to increase their rate of earnings... So, for the shareholders to make a return, they need to get the money back to them. Buybacks are okay, but nothing beats a big dividend.. Otherwise, the money just sits there until its needed to cushion slowing sales, smaller profits, etc, etc.... A 15% increase in the dividend is a joke... they should double it and watch the stock take off... (and still not have to worry about running out of cash for the next 5-10 years)..
All that money does is allow management to make multiple bad decisions until the money is gone, or the stock is in the toilet... It's not a positive thing to have that much cash on the balance sheet.. It shows a lack of faith in themselves..
Thanks for the well thought out reply.....Sometime a person who doesn`t express themselves often, can share a different and contributing point of view.....I personally am at a junction that just doesn`t lend itself to making a decision.....I remember you expressing yourself many months ago, and was impressed then as I am now......
I am leaning towards moving on at the first opportunity , but when you don`t know or feel what to do, then do nothing Tony
"Well, I'm not going to say that I predicted or foresaw the massive drop in stock price, but about 6 months ago, I did list some limitations I saw that could lead to inability to sustain growth.
First and foremost, there's the fact that the "big rush" is over for all existing products, meaning that by now, most of the people who want to own one of their major offerings (iPhone, iPod, iPad) have already purchased one. Thus, the majority of these product sales are now upgrades to existing equipment - the "new to Apple" consumers come in at a trickle, not a heavy flow as before. You've got some die-hards who will upgrade at every chance, but most people are willing to skip at least one generation of upgrades."
Kirstie,
I respect your opinion but we are in total disagreement about your ideas on AAPL. Who in their right mind thought that they could sustain the same rate of growth? That's impossible. But so what if their growth has slowed down some? How does AAPL compare in growth and margins right now to some other stocks that the Street seems to love (e.g. AMZN, NFLX, etc)? There is no comparison. Apple was cheap even at $700 considering their PE.
As far as the "big rush is over" is concerned, 37 million iPhones and 19 million (don't remember the exact number but I think it's close) do not seem like puny numbers to me for the Quarter just ended. Yes the numbers will go down over the next few months in anticipation for new products starting this fall. Speaking of new products, do you think that Tim Cook is lying when he says "we have some really exciting new products, software, and services this fall and throughout 2014"? If so, then your dim outlook on AAPL is warranted. But I very much doubt he is lying. Additionally he specifically mentioned "new categories". That is super exciting to me . This could mean an iWatch, iTV, etc., etc. Whatever these new categories are, I have faith they will be be very innovative.
"Then, you have accessories/add-ons. Once non-Apple accessories became available, the market for sales of Apple-manufactured accessories, which are much more expensive, was bound to slow way down. Hard to get the average consumer to pay Apple prices for headphones, clocks, speakers, chargers, etc., when the non-brand name ones are half price."
Oh come on! Do you really think that accessories is a big deal for Apple? Besides, they still sell plenty of accessories.
"iTunes sales - same as the hardware sales. Most consumers have built their "base" library of music & movies already. Now consumers are just buying new stuff that comes out, by and large."
Last time I checked, iTunes is turning in very nice profits. When it was first envisioned, Apple was hoping to just break even.
"Someone mentioned the Chinese market back then, and I don't know what's happening with that. Haven't kept up with it. But it's not always the easiest and most stable place to do business. You may have plans to launch a product in China by a certain date, but you can't count on it due to factors not available in the free market economies."
Apple's sales and profits in China have been sky-rocketing even though the androids have a big advantage with much cheaper devices. When Apple strikes a deal with China Mobil, look out! They will strike a deal within the next 6-10 months. The growth potential in China is astronomical.
There is one reason and one reason only that AAPL slumped early yesterday instead of taking off. Just because Tim Cook said the word "FALL" instead of this summer on introduction of new products, the investors and and some analysts viewed that as disappointing. That's like a little 3-4 year olds crying, "I want it now". If one looks at Apple's history, the average time period between new products is about 3 years. So, this will be right in line. I honestly feel a lot more positive about Apple's future than I did a week ago after listening to what Tim Cook had to say the other day.
"Apple is a consumer products company.. I'd compare them to Sony in the 1980s.... They don't sell a single product that isn't also sold by someone else.. They might be the best and the brightest now, but that won't always be so.. (see Sony).."
You are right in that Apple does not sell anything that is not sold by some other company. However, that's where the similarity between Sony and Apple ends. Sony stopped making new products and they thought people would continue to pay a premium for their products. Ok, now you're thinking, "that's what Apple is doing right now". Not exactly. Is the Amazon tablet as good as the iPad? No way. Yes Samsung has made great strides with their smartphone, but a lot of people would still rather have the iPhone over the Galaxy S4. Besides, just wait and see what Apple comes up with this fall and into next year. That's the biggest difference between Sony of old and Apple. Sony stopped innovating. Apple will not stop to innovate and come up with the latest and greatest.
"A 15% increase in the dividend is a joke... they should double it and watch the stock take off... (and still not have to worry about running out of cash for the next 5-10 years)..
All that money does is allow management to make multiple bad decisions until the money is gone, or the stock is in the toilet... It's not a positive thing to have that much cash on the balance sheet.. It shows a lack of faith in themselves.."
Wow! Maybe you should become the new CEO of Apple. You seem confident in your thinking about what Apple should do with all their cash. Calling the 15% dividend increase "a joke" is much too harsh. Yes, it would have been nice to have a bigger increase, but I trust that Apple knows better than any of us what to do with all that cash hoard. A dividend now of $3.05 per share is not measly. There will be new institutions that jump into Apple now due to the this dividend with a likelihood of more increases down the road.
And, what about that huge $50 billion in stock buyback? That can only help investors.
Let's see who wins this "battle". Let's discuss your thoughts and mine again about a year from now. I will bow to you if I'm proven wrong.
I personally just wanted to hear other people`s opinions----I appreciate everyone`s ---I personally just don`t know what to think about aapl, as I have expressed.....I`m just trying to get some sort of thoughts going on in my head......
Many stocks have a tendency to have nice appreciation, only to come back to where they started, so what is left is only the meager dividend....Some of course rise and continue to rise......Unfortunately for me aapl just fell and fell , so I have a loss on what I have, and the Grandson is down a third.......
I appreciate your concerns. Losing money stinks, especially at our age. But, unless you feel that Apple is doomed and it will go down to $300, we need to have patience. There has been incredible manipulation of this stock over the past 6 months or longer. There is NO reason it should be trading this low. NO reason whatsoever. Obviously, you need to do what is best for you, but I am staying with it since I still believe Apple will come out with incredible upgrades to its current products and perhaps even more importantly, it will be coming out with totally new products starting this fall and into 2014. I don't think that Tim Cook is a liar.
It's not about where the stock will be in a year... It's why the stock is priced where it is, today..
You seem to posit that it's unfair or a conspiracy. I think it's the investment community not trusting Apple management to do right by the shareholders. Apple management acts like they own the company, rather than as employees.
When Apple management demonstrates concern for their shareholders that convinces investors, then the stock may rise to reflect that... As long as the perception is that they don't have the shareholder's best interests at heart, you may see the status quo..
If there are even rumors of an all-new, non-duplicated product, I agree that the stock will rocket. If I'd heard a rumor, I'd be in... but of course by the time I hear it, it'll be too late.
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"You seem to posit that it's unfair or a conspiracy. I think it's the investment community not trusting Apple management to do right by the shareholders. Apple management acts like they own the company, rather than as employees."
I certainly do think that there has been a conspiracy against AAPL. And, I'm not the only one that thinks this. I would not at all be surprised if 6-12 months down the road, the DOJ will find evidence as such and there will be prosecutions. The truth will eventually come out.
Hi Charlie------You don`t have to convince me, as I pretty much agree with you, but I have been wrong.....I don`t think aapl should have declined any where near this much......I think it is very good with their products, and is probably going through a re-adjustment period.....
Philosophically I have always practiced what I have been taught......Make an investment in a company with a favorable future, and if correct , expect to be rewarded with a decent return that is based on how well the company has done and further with share appreciation...I know the taxes have changed in the last twenty years, and some , (warren buffet) in particular, have suggested that a company not reward the successful investor with any return, but to let that be reflected in the value of the company, and just sell a portion of the shares to live on.....Notice that he doesn`t invest that way for his company...He wants a return..
This is one of the reasons I have followed aapl so closely, thinking that this could be a company that I could practice the Buffet advice on......If the management of aapl were to be trustworthy and have a share holder `practice` then it could possibly do just this.....They may eventually become more shareholder friendly---I don`t know.
I do know I don`t want to be involved in any company that appears to be such a well managed institution, and be thrown to the wolves while the stock tumbles such a large percentage, without any thought to those shareholders, other than the one comment I heard----I`m very disappointed in the stock price---from the ceo
This is why I wanted the input of those people who cared to share their view...I thank all, and hope to further learn from my obvious error......:) Tony
"This is why I wanted the input of those people who cared to share their view...I thank all, and hope to further learn from my obvious error......" Tony
Tony, it is only an error if you take an actual loss. At this point it is a paper loss. Yes, it could turn into a bigger loss if things go horribly wrong, but I'm betting that I will take huge profits within a year or so.
I wish you all the best---and always have so---I do think you will be right in that you could take a nice gain--maybe even a large one, but you will have to be on your toes and sell, or at least cut back....
Now aapl management could get with the `golden rule` and it would become a fine investment for a long period of time---and the volatility would tamper down---
To put things in perspective, I think I could just give the `kid` three shares, and he would be back to even......I`m not going to do so, as that would not be a `life learning lesson`.....but it would `let me out the box` I`m staying in the box and plan on complaining about it for a while at least Thanks Tony
One other thing-----at&t makes aapl appear to be the most wonderful company with a golden heart for the beleaguered customer....I would sincerely suggest anyone who owns at&t stock to review their holding......Man what a dismal customer experience it is dealing with them Tony
I would sincerely suggest anyone who owns at&t stock to review their holding......Man what a dismal customer experience it is dealing with them Tony
Oh how I agree with you on AT&T. As a former employee and customer. I have sworn off them and their lousy service forever if possible. I sold our at&t stock last year that we purchased in the 1960s.
It's not called the "Deathstar" for nothing (look at their logo compared to the Star Wars site of the same name).
Speaking of all that, as it is in my town, I see T-Mobile is going public next week. I wonder how that will pan out. The company seemed to have a lot of promise once, but has been plagued by some bad decisions as well. They might be turning a corner again.
I hope they do have a bright future.....The monopolies that have evolved, need some decent competition ...I use Verizon because their signal reached the cabin in the mountains, but I think this mobile stuff is quite expensive....I`v gotten use to the iphone and have slowly been cutting off the land based lines but am not quite to the point where I really trust it...Almost there....
The thing about at&t is that they really screw up my bills all the time....I can`t tell you the number of times I`v had to phone to get get charges eliminated....Apparently many other people have the same problem.....Once they purchased BellSouth my problems started...and these problems are really dis-honest ones....Just tack on a charge, or increase a charge every other month, to see if they can get away with it....Honestly this is where the government in Washington needs to take a position and enforce it.....Or even better T Mobile and other companies need to compete , to eliminate some of the monopolistic practices...At&t use to be a very good dependable company ---something that made you feel very loyal to......They are still very dependable, but have degenerated to something that makes you think they are desperate.....Again I think something is wrong with their management...Tony
Had the ATT/Tmo merger gone through, it certainly would have hurt any idea of a competitive market. I was cynical when it was rejected, but now can agree with it. Would have only helped a few already over-monied execs, at the expense of consumers and employees.
I have Tmo service and have for many years - no billing issues, the service in built up areas is decent (some areas of my town now have LTE, but not at my home), but rural service can be iffy - especially data, and I don't seem to get signal in buildings as well as others. But, the price makes up for that. How the market embraces or rejects the public offering might give a hint at the future of the company. A couple years ago, I was thinking they might not be long for this world.
I certainly do hope that T Mobile is successful. They were my provider until I decided that I wanted an iPhone a couple years ago and had to drop them. I went with the "evil empire", AT&T. My son and his wife who live in Seattle switched from AT & T and signed on with T-Moble a few months ago. The signal is definitely not as good as AT &T but the price makes it worth it. I often have trouble communicating with him at an Amgen building when I call his cell phone now.
Maybe more than most industries, telecom is one where competition (without collusion, which appears to be the case so far) is vital - too much room for problems when there are few choices. I too hope they can pull it off.
also I just saw in Barrons a report J Gundlatch (sp) isn`t short aapl anymore, but made the mis-statement that there wern`t any more people to buy , as it is over owned.......Some comments that followed stated that aapl itself is buying sixty billion dollars worth....
When Jeffrey last made a comment about aapl, I had owned a fair amount of his Doubletree? (dltnx) but as the interest rates and the particular market he invests in, has been struggling, so I sold that, with the idea to invest the proceeds into aapl...I now just don`t want to be any more involved with aapl---for the many reasons I have suggested--so am watching and waiting for something else.....This is what can screw up a person`s perspective, unless they already have an alternate investment ready to go.....
Len ---I think you now have the new car, any news to share??? Tony
It's been a very busy three months for me with cars. First the S, then the SL and last week - out of nowhere - an IS250 AWD. The latter is a car I did for my son. He had a Lexus HS (hybrid) from 2010. That lease was going to run thru December 4th. It all started with a phone call weeks ago from my Lexus sales guy. i returned the call last week and double checked when the HS lease was over. In the context of the call I asked him if Lexus was doing any early lease termination programss and that I'd look at the CT if that was the case. The mileage on the HS was low and that added value to it. So we went to see him on Friday and just before that I saw that they were doing a great deal on the IS250 AWD as well. My son drove both cars on Friday and while the CT's 43mpg interested him he fell in love with IS which gets about 24mpg and 27mpg on local highway driving. So we worked out a deal on an IS250 with nebula gray paint and a black and rust two tone interior that was no money down and $425 per month (that includes tax) on a $43K IS with Lexus eating the last 7 months of the HS lease. It has the F sport fascia, spoiler and leather interior. The only thing missing on the car is memory seats. It has blue tooth radio and has the latest Lexus nav (which is so much nicer than MB's nav). It's a wonderful car with excellent handling and a real nice ride. Plus it's AWD which my wife and I prefer for my son as it has much better traction on wet surfaces. The car grips the road far better than the HS and of course has real nice acceleration. For me it's just a switch of lease payments, shortens up the credit by 7 months (I'd have done another lease in December anyway) and my son now pays for $50 a month on the lease as he now has a job vs 3 years ago.
As for the SL 550 - well it's perfection. It's a fun car, rides on rails while giving you a real lux car ride at the same time and supreme luxury inside and is a top of the line roadster with the top down. It's three great cars in one. The suspension has two settings - sport and comfort. The acceleration is incredible, the brakes are fabulous and everyone looks at you in this car. I've had truck drivers stare at me and give me a thumbs up when they were driving by and I was waiting at a stop sign to make a left turn. The car is designo paint outside and designo leather inside so that makes it a top of the line SL to boot. Magnificent car. It also does everything by voice, from phone calls to changing radio stations, or music selections on your phone, iPad or iPod (it's blue tooth audio) to the navigation. The S-class also does this but that MB dealership (which is different from the one I got the SL from) never explained that car well. This dealership is a high end MB one and has many S and SL's with designo options. I'm using them from now on for sales and service. They and the Lexus dealershp I use are fabulous.
Len you`v got all `bases` covered......and aapl is going up to`boot`....:) a fine day indeed.....
At what point in life do you think it nice to get a son or in my case a grandson a nicer car? I think I`l just buy whatever , whenever the time seems right, but in this day and `age` I really don`t want to wait too long.....The purchase is I don`t want to be on the hook when a lease runs out Again my warmest thoughts for you Tony
The run up is due to several factors. Here they are as I see them not necessarily in order of importance.
1. Today's massive "iBond" deal. 2. MUCH less negative spin on Apple from the press after this run-up and since the quarterly report. The manipulating hedge funds I'm sure have been buying now after they basically single handedly ran the stock to the ground. 3. As I stated several days ago in my reply to Kirstie, unless you think that Tim Cook is a liar, then there is now great anticipation of exciting new products, services, software, and new product categories starting this fall if not sooner. 4. The issuance of a dividend on May 16 I believe. I think this is probably the least important of the reasons for the run-up.
As I stated several days ago in my reply to Kirstie, unless you think that Tim Cook is a liar, then there is now great anticipation of exciting new products, services, software, and new product categories starting this fall if not sooner.
I don't think anyone is a liar. Based on history, I do, however, believe that people can be mistaken. I'm not saying he is or isn't, but stuff happens, and I have yet to see anyone predict the future with 100% accuracy.
I have neither money nor ego invested in my statements, so what anyone thinks of them isn't particularly relevant to me. They're just personal observations.
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I haven't read all the relevant posts and will catch-up in a day or two. Between car buying, finishing our 12/31 audit and first quarter financials I have been swamped. But what I'm very confident about re Apple is that hedge funds have stopped selling and are buying again. Hence the negative press has almost ceased. This story further confirms my belief. Also if you read the story I think Netflix is set up for shorting. It's had too far a run too fast and is way over-valued. I haven't paid attention to the float. If the shares are still largely owned privately than it's more difficult to short. But if it isn't I'd expect the shorts to come in big time given the low profits and sky high multiple. The third stock I have no knowledge of. But from my own perspective I think Apple will be back in the 500's and rising before the end of the 2nd quarter. There has never been anything wrong with the company. They went thru an advertising smear campaign from Samsung, a ton of negative press and an avalanche of new products from Samsung and still grew sales decently given their gargantuan size. The company is fine but their is something seriously wrong with the street. I'm just glad Apple stopped short of a $200bln debt offering because they'd have had people behind people in line to lend them the money and they could have taken the whole float out at an incredibly cheap price thanks to the streets foolishness. As I said in an earlier post the Street built their forecasts off of the innovation bonus Apple had with the iPhones and tablets. Those margins were never sustainable. Adjust for them and Apple looks spectacular. The problem with the street is that it first expected soaring unrealistic profits (largely from their innovation lead-time) to go on ad infinitum and then crashing profits (as if their entire mojo wore off). They are wrong on both counts. Samsung has played their cards and they innovated zilch and hardly hurt Apple, if at all. They can't. Their a copier. Google can't manufacture. Apple is the only company out there that can and will lead and I have no doubt they will again before this year is over.
In the final quarter of 2012, the average term of a new car note stretched out to 65 months, the longest ever, according to Experian Information Solutions Inc. Experian said that 17% of all new car loans in the past quarter were between 73 and 84 months and there were even a few as long as 97 months. Four years ago, only 11% of loans fell into this category.
Such long term loans can present consumers and lenders with heightened risk. With a six- or seven-year loan, it takes car-buyers longer to reach the point where they owe less on the car than it is worth. Having "negative equity" or being "upside down" in a car makes it harder to trade or sell the vehicle if the owner can't make payments.
It''ll take Apple about 10 days to make as much money as Amazon has made in 3 years. When you think about it that way you realize how Apple and to a lesser extent Google and Microsoft dwarf some of Wall streets darlings with absurd multiples.
I am preaching to the choir here in addressing Len, but this article is awesome in comparing "apples with apples". Len, this article sounds like you wrote it.
After finally catching up on some posts I will have to strongly disagree with Kirstie's opinions. If Apple was drying up their sales should have fallen this quarter, not risen 11% on a gragantuan sales base. Their would also have been much lower demand for their bonds, not demand that was triple to quadruple the offering. That tells you what the investor community really believes. The bond market is not manipulatible. Stocks are. All you need to do is get a bunch of hedge funds to act the same way. Those same trades in bonds are peanuts. I'm not going to go into the points. But the one that is totally missed is the renewability of Apple's products. This is not the TV business. This is an ecosystem business with very high renewal rates - at least for Apple. That in effect means the rush will never end. It may not grow like it did when new revolutionized markets were being created but it'll step up up higher and higher with new iterations of existing products plus new products are created. The other point is the street thinks that Apple management will watch their cash dry up. It's pretty hard for that to happen when you just minted $8bln in a quarter (that's merely 8X Amazons earnings for three years in three months) and will add $45bln a year. The downward trend in Apple stock was tied into tremendous negative blogs by people who IMO have little knowledge of finance. It's interesting how those blogs seem to have ceased now. I find it iinteresting how the same bloggers make excuses for Amazon's awful margins. It's hardly a level playing field in the press and IMO those guys will always post what they are paid off to do. Just watch Wall Street and see how Gordon Gekko did it in the pre internet days.
Len, although I agree with you, I`v been wrong....I think you sold aapl a while ago, and didn`t have to experience this `swoon`, and Kristie didn`t either......Now Charlie and I did, but Charlie has a lower cost base, but still a timely sale would have done him well....If I purchased aapl now, even after the nice run up, I would be doing something right, instead of what I did----try and catch a falling knife...:)
I hate t say it, but the `bond` market can also be manipulated, but the money to be made just doesn`t seem to be as great as in the stocks.....Big markups in bonds, or deep discounts if you are selling....plus the interest clock is always running....A complicated situation imo
Here is hoping aapl still moves on up, and you are enjoying and looking forward to driving the `odd car out`` Tony
I've been in and out of Apple. That was my whole $425 strategy. But I was out of it when it dropped under $400, except for 200 shares. I bought almost all my shares back at $410 and am just watching it and deciding what to do on a day to day basis. Once you adopt a bail and buy approach it's easy to lose any emotions you have tied to your holdings.
I think you sold aapl a while ago, and didn`t have to experience this `swoon`, and Kristie didn`t either......Now Charlie and I did, but Charlie has a lower cost base, but still a timely sale would have done him well....If I purchased aapl now, even after the nice run up, I would be doing something right, instead of what I did----try and catch a falling knife..
Tony,
Len sold a lot of his shares at $450 or so and as he says, he bought most of them back at $410 on the way up from $382. So, it's not like he saved $hundreds of thousands in his transactions. Yes, it would have been nice if you and I had done the same thing, but let's face it. The bottom line is that it would not have made that much difference. If you believe in the Company (Apple), and that their growth prospects are not going to zero, then I don't think we need to worry about it. As I indicated to you just prior to the report, I feel that the bottom in AAPL has been set and we will be rewarded handsomely in time (within a year or less). It is very difficult in this world to get instant gratification.
Boy, isn`t that the truth about `instant gratification`......I though Len had bought a long long time ago, well befor Jobs death, and as was complained about back then , how rigged everything seemed.....Then sold alot way up in the six hundred dollar slot.....after holding for a long time like you did....All during that time I just had `earnings` gambles.....I then though he bought back more recently, sold and re-bought again....Just must have gotten confused.....:) which happens to me..
I had raises some money to take a meaningful position, and bought just a little ...Man thet `little` turned out to be a good loss....I just do not want to be in any situation that can decline forty percent, or rise that much without having management having some input.....The management can, and does, reward themselves with massive amounts of stock, and do as they please....That just isn`t for me anymore...I`m holding what I have and am re-deploying the funds I raised to invest in aapl....As you know I wish you all the best, and reserve the right to change my mind...I`l possibly do so when I see some positive actions ...
My opinion, right now, is that aapl has played into the big `houses` hand by raising the funds---rewarding them with big fees, therefore the positive press, for the sake of them selling the bonds at a nice profit.....Once that is over, will be the time to watch closely... Tony ps I also don`t think it ever should have declined like it did...
What I understand is that most of their fund are overseas, so if they brought them back, they would have to pay taxes....The `in` thing today is borrow and spend---buying stock in--and leaving the next generation to pay for it---just like the government....
I personally think they are partially doing this to `play the game with Wall Street` get positive press and a floor under the stock...Just my opinion... but the truth of the matter is no one really knows what is going on Tony
The other point is the street thinks that Apple management will watch their cash dry up. It's pretty hard for that to happen when you just minted $8bln in a quarter (that's merely 8X Amazons earnings for three years in three months) and will add $45bln a year.
Speaking of Apple's cash hoard, take a look at this. What if yesterday, Apple did exactly as this guy suggests? And, who is to say that Apple will not do exactly that several months down the road. The stock would absolutely sky-rocket. And, Len, as you stated on several occasions, we have so called analysts out there that claim this massive cash hoard does not mean much at all for the stock. That is SO ludicrous.
I did. I bought at $84 years ago. But I went on vacation and put a stop loss in at $128. The shares were at $140 when I did that. But the market tanked and the stop loss was triggered. I was very aggravated about it and did something stupid. I watched the shares jump $33 before I finally stepped in and bought all the shares that were sold at $128 and then some at $161. We all do stupid things. I then boought more at $302 and $330. Then I bought another 100 shares at $583 and 50 more at $589 (on its way down from 700). I sold all but 200 shares at $450 and then made some nice profits playing the $425 strategy I put in. It ate into some of the lost money between 450 and 700 but I've got a lot more to go. Not complaining though. It was a great ride from 84 to 450 with a stop in between 128 and 161. I now think the company had fair value at $625-650 or so and expect it'll go back to that in a year. My mistake was drinking the kool-aid and not dropping out the excessive margins and bonus profits of the innovation lead time. I now think Wall street is making the same mistake but in the opposite direction. One thing I've concluded is Apple is the only company that can lead here. Samsung is a pure copier and I'm sure a patent violator.
I gotta love some of the assinine comments I've read in these blogs. One said the $145bln is worthless. Another said it's a big problem. How stupid can people be to write things like that. If they drove like they write they'd drive straight into a river.
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Cardinals fan, a failing? More like an asset. FYI, "asset" is something the Royals don't have in their line-up.
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Apple is a consumer products company.. I'd compare them to Sony in the 1980s.... They don't sell a single product that isn't also sold by someone else.. They might be the best and the brightest now, but that won't always be so.. (see Sony)..
Of course, they are printing money right now... but, they have nowhere to invest it to increase their rate of earnings... So, for the shareholders to make a return, they need to get the money back to them. Buybacks are okay, but nothing beats a big dividend.. Otherwise, the money just sits there until its needed to cushion slowing sales, smaller profits, etc, etc.... A 15% increase in the dividend is a joke... they should double it and watch the stock take off... (and still not have to worry about running out of cash for the next 5-10 years)..
All that money does is allow management to make multiple bad decisions until the money is gone, or the stock is in the toilet... It's not a positive thing to have that much cash on the balance sheet.. It shows a lack of faith in themselves..
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I am leaning towards moving on at the first opportunity , but when you don`t know or feel what to do, then do nothing
That's a variation on a saying about the market, as it relates to whether or not to buy, "when in doubt, stay out."
First and foremost, there's the fact that the "big rush" is over for all existing products, meaning that by now, most of the people who want to own one of their major offerings (iPhone, iPod, iPad) have already purchased one. Thus, the majority of these product sales are now upgrades to existing equipment - the "new to Apple" consumers come in at a trickle, not a heavy flow as before. You've got some die-hards who will upgrade at every chance, but most people are willing to skip at least one generation of upgrades."
Kirstie,
I respect your opinion but we are in total disagreement about your ideas on AAPL. Who in their right mind thought that they could sustain the same rate of growth? That's impossible. But so what if their growth has slowed down some? How does AAPL compare in growth and margins right now to some other stocks that the Street seems to love (e.g. AMZN, NFLX, etc)? There is no comparison. Apple was cheap even at $700 considering their PE.
As far as the "big rush is over" is concerned, 37 million iPhones and 19 million (don't remember the exact number but I think it's close) do not seem like puny numbers to me for the Quarter just ended. Yes the numbers will go down over the next few months in anticipation for new products starting this fall. Speaking of new products, do you think that Tim Cook is lying when he says "we have some really exciting new products, software, and services this fall and throughout 2014"? If so, then your dim outlook on AAPL is warranted. But I very much doubt he is lying. Additionally he specifically mentioned "new categories". That is super exciting to me . This could mean an iWatch, iTV, etc., etc. Whatever these new categories are, I have faith they will be be very innovative.
"Then, you have accessories/add-ons. Once non-Apple accessories became available, the market for sales of Apple-manufactured accessories, which are much more expensive, was bound to slow way down. Hard to get the average consumer to pay Apple prices for headphones, clocks, speakers, chargers, etc., when the non-brand name ones are half price."
Oh come on! Do you really think that accessories is a big deal for Apple? Besides, they still sell plenty of accessories.
"iTunes sales - same as the hardware sales. Most consumers have built their "base" library of music & movies already. Now consumers are just buying new stuff that comes out, by and large."
Last time I checked, iTunes is turning in very nice profits. When it was first envisioned, Apple was hoping to just break even.
"Someone mentioned the Chinese market back then, and I don't know what's happening with that. Haven't kept up with it. But it's not always the easiest and most stable place to do business. You may have plans to launch a product in China by a certain date, but you can't count on it due to factors not available in the free market economies."
Apple's sales and profits in China have been sky-rocketing even though the androids have a big advantage with much cheaper devices. When Apple strikes a deal with China Mobil, look out! They will strike a deal within the next 6-10 months. The growth potential in China is astronomical.
There is one reason and one reason only that AAPL slumped early yesterday instead of taking off. Just because Tim Cook said the word "FALL" instead of this summer on introduction of new products, the investors and and some analysts viewed that as disappointing. That's like a little 3-4 year olds crying, "I want it now". If one looks at Apple's history, the average time period between new products is about 3 years. So, this will be right in line. I honestly feel a lot more positive about Apple's future than I did a week ago after listening to what Tim Cook had to say the other day.
You are right in that Apple does not sell anything that is not sold by some other company. However, that's where the similarity between Sony and Apple ends. Sony stopped making new products and they thought people would continue to pay a premium for their products. Ok, now you're thinking, "that's what Apple is doing right now". Not exactly. Is the Amazon tablet as good as the iPad? No way. Yes Samsung has made great strides with their smartphone, but a lot of people would still rather have the iPhone over the Galaxy S4. Besides, just wait and see what Apple comes up with this fall and into next year. That's the biggest difference between Sony of old and Apple. Sony stopped innovating. Apple will not stop to innovate and come up with the latest and greatest.
"A 15% increase in the dividend is a joke... they should double it and watch the stock take off... (and still not have to worry about running out of cash for the next 5-10 years)..
All that money does is allow management to make multiple bad decisions until the money is gone, or the stock is in the toilet... It's not a positive thing to have that much cash on the balance sheet.. It shows a lack of faith in themselves.."
Wow! Maybe you should become the new CEO of Apple. You seem confident in your thinking about what Apple should do with all their cash. Calling the 15% dividend increase "a joke" is much too harsh. Yes, it would have been nice to have a bigger increase, but I trust that Apple knows better than any of us what to do with all that cash hoard. A dividend now of $3.05 per share is not measly. There will be new institutions that jump into Apple now due to the this dividend with a likelihood of more increases down the road.
And, what about that huge $50 billion in stock buyback? That can only help investors.
Let's see who wins this "battle". Let's discuss your thoughts and mine again about a year from now. I will bow to you if I'm proven wrong.
Oops! Make that a $100 billion stock buyback.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Many stocks have a tendency to have nice appreciation, only to come back to where they started, so what is left is only the meager dividend....Some of course rise and continue to rise......Unfortunately for me aapl just fell and fell , so I have a loss on what I have, and the Grandson is down a third.......
I appreciate your concerns. Losing money stinks, especially at our age. But, unless you feel that Apple is doomed and it will go down to $300, we need to have patience. There has been incredible manipulation of this stock over the past 6 months or longer. There is NO reason it should be trading this low. NO reason whatsoever. Obviously, you need to do what is best for you, but I am staying with it since I still believe Apple will come out with incredible upgrades to its current products and perhaps even more importantly, it will be coming out with totally new products starting this fall and into 2014. I don't think that Tim Cook is a liar.
You seem to posit that it's unfair or a conspiracy. I think it's the investment community not trusting Apple management to do right by the shareholders. Apple management acts like they own the company, rather than as employees.
When Apple management demonstrates concern for their shareholders that convinces investors, then the stock may rise to reflect that... As long as the perception is that they don't have the shareholder's best interests at heart, you may see the status quo..
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I certainly do think that there has been a conspiracy against AAPL. And, I'm not the only one that thinks this. I would not at all be surprised if 6-12 months down the road, the DOJ will find evidence as such and there will be prosecutions. The truth will eventually come out.
Here is a very relevant article about Apple's repurchase program which compares favorably with what Warren Buffet did in 2011.
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/does-apples-buyback-pass-warren-buffetts-litm- - us-test.html/?ref=YF
Here is a video that anyone interested in Apple should watch. This interview was done the day of the Apple Quarterly release.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/04/25/is-apple-losing-its-edge.aspx
Philosophically I have always practiced what I have been taught......Make an investment in a company with a favorable future, and if correct , expect to be rewarded with a decent return that is based on how well the company has done and further with share appreciation...I know the taxes have changed in the last twenty years, and some , (warren buffet) in particular, have suggested that a company not reward the successful investor with any return, but to let that be reflected in the value of the company, and just sell a portion of the shares to live on.....Notice that he doesn`t invest that way for his company...He wants a return..
This is one of the reasons I have followed aapl so closely, thinking that this could be a company that I could practice the Buffet advice on......If the management of aapl were to be trustworthy and have a share holder `practice` then it could possibly do just this.....They may eventually become more shareholder friendly---I don`t know.
I do know I don`t want to be involved in any company that appears to be such a well managed institution, and be thrown to the wolves while the stock tumbles such a large percentage, without any thought to those shareholders, other than the one comment I heard----I`m very disappointed in the stock price---from the ceo
This is why I wanted the input of those people who cared to share their view...I thank all, and hope to further learn from my obvious error......:) Tony
Tony, it is only an error if you take an actual loss. At this point it is a paper loss. Yes, it could turn into a bigger loss if things go horribly wrong, but I'm betting that I will take huge profits within a year or so.
Now aapl management could get with the `golden rule` and it would become a fine investment for a long period of time---and the volatility would tamper down---
To put things in perspective, I think I could just give the `kid` three shares, and he would be back to even......I`m not going to do so, as that would not be a `life learning lesson`.....but it would `let me out the box`
Oh how I agree with you on AT&T. As a former employee and customer. I have sworn off them and their lousy service forever if possible. I sold our at&t stock last year that we purchased in the 1960s.
Speaking of all that, as it is in my town, I see T-Mobile is going public next week. I wonder how that will pan out. The company seemed to have a lot of promise once, but has been plagued by some bad decisions as well. They might be turning a corner again.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/anthonykosner/2013/04/28/is-the-iphone-5s-fingerprin- t-reader-worth-the-wait/?partner=yahootix
The thing about at&t is that they really screw up my bills all the time....I can`t tell you the number of times I`v had to phone to get get charges eliminated....Apparently many other people have the same problem.....Once they purchased BellSouth my problems started...and these problems are really dis-honest ones....Just tack on a charge, or increase a charge every other month, to see if they can get away with it....Honestly this is where the government in Washington needs to take a position and enforce it.....Or even better T Mobile and other companies need to compete , to eliminate some of the monopolistic practices...At&t use to be a very good dependable company ---something that made you feel very loyal to......They are still very dependable, but have degenerated to something that makes you think they are desperate.....Again I think something is wrong with their management...Tony
I have Tmo service and have for many years - no billing issues, the service in built up areas is decent (some areas of my town now have LTE, but not at my home), but rural service can be iffy - especially data, and I don't seem to get signal in buildings as well as others. But, the price makes up for that. How the market embraces or rejects the public offering might give a hint at the future of the company. A couple years ago, I was thinking they might not be long for this world.
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/will-the-iphone-5s-be-here-sooner-than-expect- ed.html/?ref=YF
When Jeffrey last made a comment about aapl, I had owned a fair amount of his Doubletree? (dltnx) but as the interest rates and the particular market he invests in, has been struggling, so I sold that, with the idea to invest the proceeds into aapl...I now just don`t want to be any more involved with aapl---for the many reasons I have suggested--so am watching and waiting for something else.....This is what can screw up a person`s perspective, unless they already have an alternate investment ready to go.....
Len ---I think you now have the new car, any news to share???
It's been a very busy three months for me with cars. First the S, then the SL and last week - out of nowhere - an IS250 AWD. The latter is a car I did for my son. He had a Lexus HS (hybrid) from 2010. That lease was going to run thru December 4th. It all started with a phone call weeks ago from my Lexus sales guy. i returned the call last week and double checked when the HS lease was over. In the context of the call I asked him if Lexus was doing any early lease termination programss and that I'd look at the CT if that was the case. The mileage on the HS was low and that added value to it. So we went to see him on Friday and just before that I saw that they were doing a great deal on the IS250 AWD as well. My son drove both cars on Friday and while the CT's 43mpg interested him he fell in love with IS which gets about 24mpg and 27mpg on local highway driving. So we worked out a deal on an IS250 with nebula gray paint and a black and rust two tone interior that was no money down and $425 per month (that includes tax) on a $43K IS with Lexus eating the last 7 months of the HS lease. It has the F sport fascia, spoiler and leather interior. The only thing missing on the car is memory seats. It has blue tooth radio and has the latest Lexus nav (which is so much nicer than MB's nav). It's a wonderful car with excellent handling and a real nice ride. Plus it's AWD which my wife and I prefer for my son as it has much better traction on wet surfaces. The car grips the road far better than the HS and of course has real nice acceleration. For me it's just a switch of lease payments, shortens up the credit by 7 months (I'd have done another lease in December anyway) and my son now pays for $50 a month on the lease as he now has a job vs 3 years ago.
As for the SL 550 - well it's perfection. It's a fun car, rides on rails while giving you a real lux car ride at the same time and supreme luxury inside and is a top of the line roadster with the top down. It's three great cars in one. The suspension has two settings - sport and comfort. The acceleration is incredible, the brakes are fabulous and everyone looks at you in this car. I've had truck drivers stare at me and give me a thumbs up when they were driving by and I was waiting at a stop sign to make a left turn. The car is designo paint outside and designo leather inside so that makes it a top of the line SL to boot. Magnificent car. It also does everything by voice, from phone calls to changing radio stations, or music selections on your phone, iPad or iPod (it's blue tooth audio) to the navigation. The S-class also does this but that MB dealership (which is different from the one I got the SL from) never explained that car well. This dealership is a high end MB one and has many S and SL's with designo options. I'm using them from now on for sales and service. They and the Lexus dealershp I use are fabulous.
At what point in life do you think it nice to get a son or in my case a grandson a nicer car? I think I`l just buy whatever , whenever the time seems right, but in this day and `age` I really don`t want to wait too long.....The purchase is I don`t want to be on the hook when a lease runs out
1. Today's massive "iBond" deal.
2. MUCH less negative spin on Apple from the press after this run-up and since the quarterly report. The manipulating hedge funds I'm sure have been buying now after they basically single handedly ran the stock to the ground.
3. As I stated several days ago in my reply to Kirstie, unless you think that Tim Cook is a liar, then there is now great anticipation of exciting new products, services, software, and new product categories starting this fall if not sooner.
4. The issuance of a dividend on May 16 I believe. I think this is probably the least important of the reasons for the run-up.
Here is a great story about the "iBond" deal:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-wows-market-record-17billion-190308143.html
I don't think anyone is a liar. Based on history, I do, however, believe that people can be mistaken. I'm not saying he is or isn't, but stuff happens, and I have yet to see anyone predict the future with 100% accuracy.
I have neither money nor ego invested in my statements, so what anyone thinks of them isn't particularly relevant to me. They're just personal observations.
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http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/04/30/3-stocks-hedge-funds-love.aspx
I hope others read your post. I've been preaching the same thing for months. However, you do a much better job with numbers with your CPA background.
In the final quarter of 2012, the average term of a new car note stretched out to 65 months, the longest ever, according to Experian Information Solutions Inc. Experian said that 17% of all new car loans in the past quarter were between 73 and 84 months and there were even a few as long as 97 months. Four years ago, only 11% of loans fell into this category.
Such long term loans can present consumers and lenders with heightened risk. With a six- or seven-year loan, it takes car-buyers longer to reach the point where they owe less on the car than it is worth. Having "negative equity" or being "upside down" in a car makes it harder to trade or sell the vehicle if the owner can't make payments.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578403191117526644.html
It''ll take Apple about 10 days to make as much money as Amazon has made in 3 years. When you think about it that way you realize how Apple and to a lesser extent Google and Microsoft dwarf some of Wall streets darlings with absurd multiples.
I am preaching to the choir here in addressing Len, but this article is awesome in comparing "apples with apples". Len, this article sounds like you wrote it.
http://beta.fool.com/brewcrewfool/2013/05/01/apple-is-not-microsoft/33014/?sourc- e=eogyholnk0000001
I hate t say it, but the `bond` market can also be manipulated, but the money to be made just doesn`t seem to be as great as in the stocks.....Big markups in bonds, or deep discounts if you are selling....plus the interest clock is always running....A complicated situation imo
Here is hoping aapl still moves on up, and you are enjoying and looking forward to driving the `odd car out`` Tony
I've been in and out of Apple. That was my whole $425 strategy. But I was out of it when it dropped under $400, except for 200 shares. I bought almost all my shares back at $410 and am just watching it and deciding what to do on a day to day basis. Once you adopt a bail and buy approach it's easy to lose any emotions you have tied to your holdings.
Tony,
Len sold a lot of his shares at $450 or so and as he says, he bought most of them back at $410 on the way up from $382. So, it's not like he saved $hundreds of thousands in his transactions. Yes, it would have been nice if you and I had done the same thing, but let's face it. The bottom line is that it would not have made that much difference. If you believe in the Company (Apple), and that their growth prospects are not going to zero, then I don't think we need to worry about it. As I indicated to you just prior to the report, I feel that the bottom in AAPL has been set and we will be rewarded handsomely in time (within a year or less). It is very difficult in this world to get instant gratification.
I had raises some money to take a meaningful position, and bought just a little ...Man thet `little` turned out to be a good loss....I just do not want to be in any situation that can decline forty percent, or rise that much without having management having some input.....The management can, and does, reward themselves with massive amounts of stock, and do as they please....That just isn`t for me anymore...I`m holding what I have and am re-deploying the funds I raised to invest in aapl....As you know I wish you all the best, and reserve the right to change my mind...I`l possibly do so when I see some positive actions ...
My opinion, right now, is that aapl has played into the big `houses` hand by raising the funds---rewarding them with big fees, therefore the positive press, for the sake of them selling the bonds at a nice profit.....Once that is over, will be the time to watch closely...
I personally think they are partially doing this to `play the game with Wall Street` get positive press and a floor under the stock...Just my opinion... but the truth of the matter is no one really knows what is going on
Speaking of Apple's cash hoard, take a look at this. What if yesterday, Apple did exactly as this guy suggests? And, who is to say that Apple will not do exactly that several months down the road. The stock would absolutely sky-rocket. And, Len, as you stated on several occasions, we have so called analysts out there that claim this massive cash hoard does not mean much at all for the stock. That is SO ludicrous.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/05/01/1-shocking-move-apple-could-hav- - e-and-should-have-m.aspx