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Ahh yes, these are the same people (doomsdayers) that also thought Japan was going to take over the real estate in the US and espoused how awful it was to sell office buildings to foreigners. Yeah all that did was give us the best real estate market in history and futher open the doors of global competition.
And if not for Japan, the US automakers would be done with already. Competition is a good thing. There is a reason no one bought an american TV. Expensive and sucky. The wrongheaded idea of buying a product to help someone who makes it rather than putting the money where the value is just foolery and supports those lacking creatvity and willingess to do put a superior product to market
If not for Honda and Toyota, GM and Ford would have been done in the 80's.
Now of course GM makes world class cars. The best case is for chapter 11 so they can shed the debt and obligations to a union that will otherwise be idle and unemployed. Then the ideas and the brilliance that company does have within its walls can come out in droves like it did for the CTS launch. Maybe Ford and GM together can put out a single good line of cars to compete with German/Japanese makers. And those blaming wagoner and lutz are nuts, ryme unintentional.
The desires and actions of Japan in 1965 compared to China in 2008 cannot be compared, there is nothing similar.
Which political powers worked to open China? Was Nixon a democrat? Is Kissinger a dem? Congress has no say in such matters, powers far above congress put it in motion.
Ah, you're gonna adore Lyndon!
The japanase still never took over the world and the prices we see now are 500% better than they were in the 80's. Don't confuse commercial real estate with greedy investment banks selling bundled single family mortgagaes.
Please explain to me or anyone else why and how we are paying for a successful real estate cycle?
I know it's a sin to claim the British have any role in the problems of this world, and to claim so makes one a kook. :sick:
Had those idiots not divvied up land they had no right to influence (Palestine), many of the problems of this world wouldn't exist. Now, we all get to pay for their idiocy. How much money has Israel conned from the west over the past 60 years, and how much more will we give? A new world order, with HQ in Brussels, Tel-Aviv, and DC. What a world it will be.
But at least the unions will be dead!
Commercial real estate is irrelevant, just a few idle rich and inheritance elite trading monopoly cards.
Commercial real estate is irrelevant. "
It is to this conversation but as the economy goes - it's far from irrelavent.
What is a speculative and all controlling market look like or do? That's about as meaninless a statement as I've seen today. You make up the real estate market if you own or look to own a home. And in the real estate world I am in, we don't speculate. Some do and they accept the risk. Not sure how you can loosely and without much evidence make such a claim. It's not the real estate, it's the bankers who lent money against the real estate and who promulgatged the over the top valuations of RESIDENTAIL homes. The commecial valuations are firmly planted and based on property's net operating incomes. Hardly speculation.
Speculation is betting 10 billion on a car line, tooling and hiring and marketing it when you aren't sure if you'll be around next month.
What world are you in? The entire market of the past decade has been built around the idea of profit in no more than 5-10 years, and the ideal of an easy flip and the following windfall.
Operating incomes are derived from faulty economic indicators, those of the past decade based on endless deficit spending on public and private levels, and no thought to when it will come due. A lot of commercial development has been stopped now, because those speculations of income have not panned out.
Operating incomes are derived from cash rent in the bank. The cash is in the bank - I just checked.
The world as you depict it is rather conspiratory. Especially when your thoughts drift in and out of the point and into deficit spending, which is a governmental problem and not one the public RE markets started or can stop. And real estate is not a short term buy for mos, yet 5-10 years would be a lifetime to those who judge each quarter's results like they are the only results ever. The easy flippers are not the reason for much going wrong. You seem to ahve a narrow view of the CRE market....and now back to your regularlty scheduled programming.
I can't help but interject when I see such nonsensical stuff being dribbled about
Deficit spending is as much a problem in the private sector, consumers especially, as it is for the public sector. The deficit spending mentality of the average consumer is a contributor to the troubles around the real estate market - simply buying more than you can afford, in hopes that future cash flows will be your savior.
Nonsense, indeed.
"It's easy, sitting behind a keyboard, to type, "no one's too big to fail" or "let 'em file Chapter 11" or "serves 'em right." It's especially easy if you and yours don't have to endure directly the jobs lost, tax revenue gone, pensions halved, health care benefits denied, dealerships closed, supplier lines shut down."
Detroit, as we've known it, is dead
Guess we taxpayers will have to bail out the automakers. Cascade effect of a failed GM, Ford just too horrible to imagine. Hopefully, bailout has lots of conditions that force major reorganization and new strategies.
Saw an inteview of mayor of Greenville (or something like that) Indiana, a small town in south Indiana about the Honda plant that opened there recently. He said the starting wage there was $16/hour and no unions. He could not answer a question regarding what kind, if any, benefits workers get.
Deficit spending and CRE are nearly unrelated. Whatever. When a company has a deficit they go illiquid.
And since this went off track into something that wasn't related, lets talk about deficit spending:
What is wrong with it? We borrow about 35% of what we create in GDP. During the 30's we borrowed about 125%. Don't let the talking heads fool you into thinking a deficit is bad. That certainly won't fly with a spendy dem controlled congress or white house! We are about to spend our way out of this nightmare and it might just work like it did before and save your and my job. And I don't approve of spending as most congressman do, but now is a good time to get the money into the mainstream worker's pocket. You can't wait for GM to pony up jobs...
Let's just stick to the UAW related stuff please. There should be plenty of deficit funding stuff just involving the union eh?
Daniel Howes wrote:
" It's easy, sitting behind a keyboard, to type, "no one's too big to fail" or "let 'em file Chapter 11" or "serves 'em right." It's especially easy if you and yours don't have to endure directly the jobs lost, tax revenue gone, pensions halved, health care benefits denied, dealerships closed, supplier lines shut down "
I've mellowed somewhat. Given the extensive dollars given to banks it seems rather cruel and economically stupid to let the big three ok, two plus fail to prove the they've made their bed argument. Don't they all have large financing arms ? And precisely what do banks do? I'm thinking of the consequences with supplier related layoffs if all three go, two million jobs? I really have no wish for history to repeat itself.
So you give them the loan, 8% payable over 15 years. Now remember ,our Congress is corrupt and mainly interested in posturing so you state that they will pay the P&I into the Social Security system, Alas they will rob the former as they continually do but they will be afraid to vote against it. The problem of course is they need to survive two more months and I'm sceptical they can do it. So anyway give them the loan, stress that it's the really last shot and hope for intelligent management that really will produce fuel efficient cars without sucumbing to the short term. We did it for the stupid banks, yes, they did it to themselves but "D" words are downright depressing.
Ala PB; Hit me with your best shot. Oh to keep it on topic, The UAW ceases to exist necessitating yet a new forum. Thinking, How does the loss of the UAW affect you ?
Not that I agree with that happening, I don't, but that is any MORE wrong than nitwit managers doing the same, threatening their jobs if they do sign????
What you believe and reality is obviously two different things !!! The UAW retirees have to pay a portion of their retirement healthcare benefits. The cost is dependent on if they are single or married with kids !!!
-Rocky
-Rocky
Was this on Rush, today ??? Was he on his anti-union kick today ??? That guy needs to choke on a couple more pills !!! :mad: I can't believe the propaganda that's already being created before EFCA, is being discussed !!! :confuse:
-Rocky
So you must not grow much of anything because even a small farmer like my FIL, gets money from uncle sam and I wouldn't call him a mega farmer !!! :confuse:
-Rocky
The creation of money is done by the national banking system and folks who take out loans to buy autos, homes, and other goods/services. Banks were intended to provide a service and not to foster a brokerage service. When was the last time you applied for a loan at a bank to buy stock?
More like bankers took risk with other peoples money, lost it, and now want a socialist bail-out. Phil Gramm, the author of the ENRON loophole, had his wife on the ENRON payroll and all the while deregulated. This deregulation got us into the current mess. A mess which threatens the working man/woman and the American standard of life. This is the legacy of Reagan, deregulate and a golden shower will trickle down. Allowing banks to act as brokerages is plain stupid. Any first year business student can tell you the difference between a value added employee (UAW autoworker) and a non value added employee (a Banker). Who is going to buy the UAW cars and homes if they ship the jobs overseas?
investmetnsinvestments fare way better than many public companiesbecasuebecause underneath all the management layers and buildings is the longest living and most stable asset ever...LAND.On an acre you can build a 100 story building and have 100 acres of space. We have, for sometime now figured out how to create land.
Please explain to me or anyone else why and how we are paying for a successful real estate cycle?
This so called cycle was a result of lowering interest rates (after the DOT COM bust) and relaxing lending rules/laws as to create a false demand, which is evidenced by an enormous inventory. Surely no rational and sane person would defend the sub prime mess. Piggy backing credit scores, builders setting up non-profits to give away down payments, people being conned into ARM loans, and that just the tip of the iceberg. This was real money and not monopoly money which the brokers, builders, appraisers, and all of the players were enjoying.
Commercial real estate is irrelevant. "
Anyone who thinks that those Starbucks stores closing down, just to mention one, are residential, is wrong. RIT's (real estate investment trusts) are not making it as an investment and to assume that commercial will not suffer is just not coming to grips with "its the economy stupid".
Enough welfare for the rich bastards?
Starting Pay
$ 14.61
Production Rate
$16.23
Group B
(example:
subassembly)
Starting Pay
$14.00
Production Rate
$15.30
Group C
(example:
material handling)
Starting Pay
$14.00
Production Rate
$14.50
I would say the old timers are lucky they did not get pay cuts. Many Unions have taken pay cuts. They were quite common during the slow times in the oil business during the Clinton years. Glad we could supply you with cheap gas for the only thing the Big 3 could build, gas guzzlers. Now that the pendulum has swung the other way the automakers want us to bail them out. We did not get any bailout when Union people were getting wages cut from $18 per hour down to $10 per hour.
When homes in Anchorage dropped in value by nearly 50%, where was the helping hand from Congress and the Fed? People sucked it up and lived on less. Some lost their homes just as they are now. It is all cyclical. It is the automakers turn to bleed.
Google the following phrase for the first link and look at the sidebar:
"gm-uaw back at bargaining table"
Absolutely not!
Upper management that allowed the UAW to bully them, and did not see the necessary change to more efficient vehicles should not be allowed to manage one dime of tax payer money. How stupid did they have to be to not see the Japanese brands overtaking them with smaller efficient cars and trucks that "Lasted".
How stupid did they have to be to let UAW bully them into paying wages twice that of the competition.
How stupid were/are the UAW workers to allow and encourage their leaders to suck the very life out of the companies that are paying them.
How stupid, for all concerned, to not work out a reasonable plan to keep the doors open. It was all about greed and the me, me, me attitudes. Maybe instead of threatening to strike for more bennefits and wages, they should have threatened to strike if they couldn't build more competitive cars.
To throw more money at them, "As Is" would only be prolonging the inevitable another year or so, unless serious changes are made before hand. The big 3 should have to compete for the tax payer dollars. The best plan gets the money.
With Unions, Too often, if a person is not meeting requirements of the job as others are doing, another worker is hired to take up the slack. If they are not doing their job, they should be put on a 90 day "Plan". Given every chance to succeed. If they still don't meet requirements, they should be replaced.
With management the same should apply. Stop creating meaningless jobs that maybe they can do. Stop supporting CEOs that led the company down the tubes. Stop paying huge Termination fees to poor performing people.
Some say "Well it isn't the CEOs fault the market changed". And that is true!
However, he is being paid to anticipate those changes, deal with them, and keep his company competitive. If he doesn't deliver, replace him, without sending him away with tons of money. He should be like any other "EMPLOYEE". Do the job and we will pay you. Don't do the job and you will be replaced and escorted out the door, just like every one else. You don't get a BONUS for leaving.
Kip
If you grow fruits & vegetables, you're not eligible.
So anyone who works with thier minds and not thier hands do not add value. That's a shame since most manufacturing jobs are overseas. Wonder how GDP and productivity got to be so high. You may hate banks, but that seems to be an oversimplification. Some idiots may have misunderstood the risks they were buying, but most of the real issues are on wall street - the bank for the banks.
Now everyone will jump on the regulation bandwagon. We'll throw the baby out with the water and overregulate becasue politicians will benfit from the apprearance of "regulating". And so the gov't
willhas become the bank. it can only get worse from there.On an acre you can build a 100 story building and have 100 acres of space. We have, for sometime now figured out how to create land.
Yes and so many of us want 100 story buildings all over the suburbs. I guess you haven't tried to get one of these projects approved. Don't confuse steel and land. Land is finite and it's intrinsic value is undeniable throughout history.
This so called cycle was a result of lowering interest rates (after the DOT COM bust) and relaxing lending rules/laws as to create a false demand, which is evidenced by an enormous inventory. Surely no rational and sane person would defend the sub prime mess. Piggy backing credit scores, builders setting up non-profits to give away down payments, people being conned into ARM loans, and that just the tip of the iceberg. This was real money and not monopoly money which the brokers, builders, appraisers, and all of the players were enjoying.
I think some basic understanding of the banks and thier interactivity with COMMERCIAL real estate borrowers is in order for you. Don't confuse the subprime mess with commercial real estate markets. Commercial real estate is actually affected by the subprime mess in the same way you are by limiting transaction capital flow. Everyone is suffering.
All the things you describe are related to investment banks passing through risks they themselves didn't understand to investors who also didn't understand them. You may not like the bail out but it's all a reaction to the residential lending problems. No one is bailing General Growth. GGP was 80 and is now 30 cents. No one will care.
You can blame whomever but you are failing to see the sytemic issues and where they lie. This is very complicated and many will just blame the president or watch the news for 3 minutes and think they can articulate this mess. it's much more than meets the eye. NPR and Jim Lehrer have the best coverage if you care to learn about it.
You are referring to the inderect relationship between the fallout of the subprime mess AND A RECESSION WE LIKE TO FORGET and the retail climate which is suffering. I work for a mall owner (REIT) that owns b class malls in middle america. A couple of starbucks closing is the same story as every retailer who grew to big too fast. Economic downturns make co's like s-bux better and more adept at handling the fast moving marketplace it serves.
You may have lost money on an investment but if you own most REIT stocks, teh income is still there as are the dividends. Don't take my word looka the yields! And the rents are still coming in from 98% of the tenants. Your oversimplifying again.
I have to agree with you. Our REIT annuity has not taken the beating of any of the others. They mainly own assisted living properties and those are expanding as the population ages.
Getting back to the UAW. Will they make concessions to keep the Goose alive? Or will they play hardball now that they think they have friends in Washington DC?
We brought a lot of this on ourselves. Housing appreciation has been FAR above historical norms over the past decade, but too many people preferred to ignore that because they wanted to pretend that it would go on forever.
Bankers were enablers to some extent, but no one was forced to take loans they could never repay, or cash out home equity to buy the Escalade and exotic vacation.
Rock: Was this on Rush, today ??? Was he on his anti-union kick today ???
On CSPAN. Rush only on radio, not tv.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2007-09-17-gm-uaw_N.htm
Is this what you want me to see ??? It's all 2007 stuff !!! This is old news !!! the two-tier wage and shoddy benefits are implemented as I posted in the GM, forum !!!
-Rocky
-Rocky
-Rocky
How ignorant is your typical american that they talk about area's they claim to have knowledge about when their only facts are based on a yellow journalist slob ??? The Japanese United Autoworker (JAW) make the wages and benefits that the UAW, receive look like a joke !!! Go do some investigating before you rail the UAW, for wanting a fair slice of the pie and if you look at what automobile workers are getting in other 1st world country's The Big 3 are getting a bargain !!! :mad: The JAW workers more/less have guaranteed employment and make more in wages and benefits than the UAW, workers as do the Europeans !!!
The transplants should of never been allowed to come here in the first place !!! I'm against any foreign entity owning a piece of property of the United States, because #1 it's a national security risk !!! They build the plants in the ignorant parts of the south where they could manipulate peoples minds into believing they were getting a fair shake !!! Most of your transplants when they retire will end up on medicare and sucking the system dry. At least the UAW, retirees aren't sucking off the system but I guess that's okay if you are a pseudo-capitalist ??? Socialism is only okay if you are non-union and are rich or vote to the right, correct ??? :confuse:
CEO's in Japan, only make 10-15 times their worker bee's... Here in the U.S. you are entitled 500 times + because you went to Yale, or Harvard !!! I most days am very proud to be an american but the last few days have been something else... I watch all the ignorance by the yellow belly pigs on Faux News, manipulating the minds of the ignorant sheep and getting everyone fired up on issues they have no comprehension about !!! Blame the UAW, because they make too much money !!! Why don't you blame yourself for voting in these pseudo-capitalist fools who believe in FREE TRADE, for one side and it's not your country who is getting the long end of the stick !!! :mad: :mad: :mad:
-Rocky
"The Rock"
Wow, is this reverse John Rocker. Remember him from the Atlanta Braves? he went from the south to NY and made a nice fool of himself. Maybe Rocky can go down south and save all those manipulated souls from themselves. I bet you are against 3rd world factories and protest to put those people out of work too! Were you against all the evil japanese owning real estate. Funny how that never turned up much more than the panicking foolish. I guess anti-globalism is running rampant again now that we had a mortgage crisis....>???
By the way, wondering which part of the south are ignorant? Would B'ham fit in that category or do you have to go into the small towns? Biloxi? I guess tusgaloosa would qualify since there's a plant nearby. Stupid idiots working for a wage that they thought was OK until you saved em! Go rocky
-Rocky
(who is a major contributor to the church) manipulate their views. You saw that this past election when McSame, went to the south and rallied his base !!!
-Rocky
-Rocky