Can VW Overtake Toyota and GM To Become #1?

fintail

MA, MD, NY - some of the endless ranks of public sector prosecutors cutting their teeth and justifying their positions and salaries? Seems like an odd use of resources, but then again, when you don't answer to anyone and have virtual cradle to grave job security.

Downstream costs, too bad it can't be shipped to other environmental abuser lands like EV/hybrid pollution (other than the powerplants or disposal once the batteries are worn out).

I can't believe we don't have any pollution mandates for shipping, and very little for most landscaping equipment, and seemingly minimal standards for commercials, and seemingly little enforcement. Gotta be business friendly, increase margins for those bootstrappers and builders looool.

berri

You may be expecting a little too much rationality in the world

fintail

That being any at all?

Too bad for VW that they can't just buy carbon credits and escape the mess, like others. Oh, that's right, it's about fooling important people (ask them, they will tell you), not about actual harm.

hpmctorque

http://autoweek.com/article/vw-diesel-scandal/vw-will-slowly-back-away-diesels

berri

Well if diesel disappears from the US and you get nostalgic, you can always go out to the airport and take a few huffs... jet fuel and diesel aren't all that dissimilar

Mr_Shiftright

What with this scandal and all the automakers racing to produce very efficient hybrids and EVs, it's hard to imagine any resurgence of diesel passenger vehicles in America in the future.

The only sliver of hope I can see is if hybrids and ICEs continue to become so incredibly complex that they become too costly to own and maintain.

hpmctorque

There will be a lot of used diesel cars on the market for a long time, some with fairly low mileage.

Also, diesel fans like gagrice could have their vehicles overhauled and reconditioned, when necessary, and keep them on the road for decades.

Mr_Shiftright

Well sure, there are still a lot of Model T Fords on the road, too.

hpmctorque

As VW deemphasizes diesels, Mazda may fill some of the demand for them in the U.S....

http://www.autonews.com/article/20160723/OEM05/160729962/mazda-diesel-still-in-the-plans-ceo-says

Is Mazda replacing Honda as the most innovative Japanese automaker?

texases

I'll believe it when I see it. I wouldn't bother if I was Mazda.

stever

Yeah, I don't think they have excess R&D money anymore since Ford sold their interest.

Mr_Shiftright

Yeah, given the current climate, along with the leaps being taken in ICE and hybrid technology, that tap tap tapping I hear may not be a diesel engine, but rather nails being hammered into its coffin.

Of course, diesel tech will remain in the commercial enterprise, so maybe there's a small diesel pickup from these manufacturers in our future.

gagrice

What amazes me is VW is still showing a profit with all the money spent on Diesel Gate.

Volkswagen AG (ADR) (OTCMKTS:VLKAY) announced impressive profit results for the first half of this year, surpassing analysts’ estimates. The embattled car maker highlighted signs of recovery over the second quarter of this year as operating profits for the first half clocked in at 7.5 billion euros ($8.3 billion). As a result, company shares surged over 6% in the Frankfurt Stock Exchange on Wednesday.

http://www.bidnessetc.com/71491-volkswagen-ag-reports-upbeat-firsthalf-profits-additional-emiss/

stever

Now they get to worry about the effects of Brexit.

fintail

An EUSSR proponent I know (French, of course) claims Blighty will be the only place to really suffer, and the rest of the unholy union will be just fine. We'll see how that pans out. I wonder if the increasing frequency of terrorist attacks (and this is sadly possibly just the beginning of a new reality) will impact their economy, too.

VW is a VERY global brand, maybe as much so as Toyota, so they can probably find ways to survive.

berri

Hmmm, the Pound Sterling is falling in value close to the Euro making UK exports more competitive. Of course the EU could up tariffs on them, but the UK will then counter and probably trade more outside of the EU. Brexit may also lead to disunion in other EU member countries. Personally, I think once the initial mouthing off and posturing stops, things will not change as much as the concerns. As for it's impact on VW, I dunno. Trade tariffs could push Japan Inc to relocate plants I suppose to get around them, or if no tariffs the lower Pound Sterling better evens pricing. Either way, longer term I think Asia ultimately gains on VW in the EU. The VW story may ultimately turn on emerging markets including China and India, rather than what happens in Europe?

stever

berri said:

Either way, longer term I think Asia ultimately gains on VW in the EU.

Looks like South Korea just kicked them to the kerb (or Bordstein or 커브 if you insist).

Volkswagen Halts Sales in South Korea Amid Emissions Scandal (WSJ - free link at time of posting)

Mr_Shiftright

fintail said:

An EUSSR proponent I know (French, of course) claims Blighty will be the only place to really suffer, and the rest of the unholy union will be just fine. We'll see how that pans out. I wonder if the increasing frequency of terrorist attacks (and this is sadly possibly just the beginning of a new reality) will impact their economy, too.

VW is a VERY global brand, maybe as much so as Toyota, so they can probably find ways to survive.

Terrorist attacks are nothing new in Europe--been going on for 50 years or more--- so I don't think the EU or British economy responds quite as knee-jerk as in the USA.

fintail

Sure, but NOTHING like what western Europe is facing today, this is the most dangerous time for the continent since WW2. The Euro is already stagnant with no upside in sight, and disastrous demographic policy will weigh on the union heavily. The guilted old SJWs who have done so much like to minimize their mistakes, but the sickening events will only increase in frequency.

VW would be advised to capitalize on its cachet in other regions, and Toyota already has the same dull image there that it has here. Europe might not be a make it or break it market for either.

Mr_Shiftright said:

Terrorist attacks are nothing new in Europe--been going on for 50 years or more--- so I don't think the EU or British economy responds quite as knee-jerk as in the USA.

Mr_Shiftright

It's when the terrorism is concentrated in one country with regular frequency that you might see an economic downturn, because investors don't like that very much.

Hmmm....I don't see things any worse today. These attacks are nothing new to Europe...plane bombings were a big thing for a while, in Ireland, Scotland...train bombings in Madrid.....these killed hundreds and hundreds of people going back decades. The methods have changed somewhat, that's true. Even Wall St. was severely bombed in 1920, Manhattan by the FALN (Puerto Rico), etc. Places like Turkey and Greece have been bombed so many times it would be hard to list them all.



I think what we're seeing in modern times is relentless and repetitive 24/7 coverage of every event.

What big corporations really need to worry about is cyber-terrorism. I'm sure one could write a novel about some radical environmentalists attacking VW. It would probably be a BAD novel, but nonetheless---watch for it on TV.

gagrice

The Euro has been going down since the Greece debacle. Sitting at a buck 9 cents today. The UK Pound dropped from $1.36 before Brexit to $1.32 the day after. It is resting at $1.31 today. It probably will be harder on US exports than anything going on in Europe. Great time to travel to Europe if you can afford it.

I was looking at a German delivery on a MB GLC or GLE 300d. They don't list the diesels for US delivery. I have a half notion to try and deal on a GLE 300d while they are available here. Out of 4,400 GLE listings in the US only 143 are the 2.1 L diesel. Not a single V6 Bluetec listed in the old ML style. Did MB pull them over the dieselgate?

Mr_Shiftright

Yes, there are unsubstantiated rumors that Mercedes is considering dropping diesels altogether in the future.

READ ALL ABOUT IT

gagrice

They are selling the 2017 GLS350d now. If you have a spare $75k to $82k laying around burning a hole in your pocket. I see a quite a few people on the MBWorld blog site, waiting for the GLC300d to be delivered to the USA. A few 2016 GLE300d listings close to me. The people waiting for the GLC do not seem to have any interest in the gas version. I would not bother either. Might as well buy a throwaway Kor/[non-permissible content removed] CUV for half the price. Or you can pay $52k for a Ford Edge with its antique 6 speed transmission that is usually good for about 100k miles before handing you a $3000 bill.

fintail

An unlinked source from a blog, that's less than unsubstantiated. MB very well might move away from diesel, but that's a long ways down the road. Hybrids don't replace diesels for one reason - highway mpg and cruising ability. Take a Prius or a 4cyl diesel on a long 70 mph trip, and see which is better to drive.

I am surprise the hypocritical greenie weenies who have ascended to generously funded public sector posts aren't using public funds for cyberterrorism against diesel manufacturers. It's a crusade to them.

The Euro had some upward momentum before Brexit and the most recent actions by stone age lunatics in Germany and France. It has slumped again. I predict the pound will hover within 5% or so of where it is at right now. There's no reason for the Euro to out-perform it - the megalomaniacs in Brussels went too far.

Re: terrorism, IMO, it's not a question of if it will grow in frequency - I see no reason not to believe that the frequency and severity of terrorism in Europe will grow significantly, especially after mistakes of the past few years. These aren't the same radicals who pulled off some stunts when boomers were young. Economic consequences seem guaranteed. They have doomed their progressive social democratic paradise - the US might be the place to be in the future after all. I'll take the mess here over what is about to boil over there.

stever

Mercedes may have been a bit blindsided by the diesel car ban in Delhi. (ndtv.com) Affects ten year old cars and I guess the 25 million people there make up a significant market for MB. Would you buy a new car knowing you'll have to scrap it in ten years? (Well, you would, I might not).

Hybrid substitution there is a problem because of low fuel standards. The advanced engines won't run on junk gas. Less of an issue in the US or the EU, so we'll likely get them first.

(A rental Prius did just fine on my 1,500 mile round trip to LA last December).

Mr_Shiftright

I could see diesel cars being eliminated altogether within 10 years, perhaps 5, at least in Europe and the USA.

Europe is very resilient. It has come back from near total destruction, remember.

fintail

Knowing the socio-economic reality of India, I suspect diesel MBs are not a thing there anyway - they likely sell either fancy gassers for the born lucky set, or diesel trucks which are probably exempt from any emissions controls.

If I had to take a 1500 mile trip and could choose between a conventional diesel MB or a Prius, I know what I would pick.

Europe could easily be stumbling into a 21st century Battle of Vienna. I suspect VW isn't dumb enough to put all of its eggs in that basket. 5 or even 10 years is a pipe dream without charging infrastructure, and may be hindered more when the bleeding hearts finally own up to the externalities of battery production and power generation.

Mr_Shiftright

You just said VW isn't dumb enough?

fintail

Well, they almost got away with it

gagrice

Will the final deal with the EPA and CARB make VW happy?

Volkswagen AG (ADR)(OTCMKTS:VLKAY) may be close to an agreement with U.S. environmental officials over a recall of nearly 500,000 diesel-powered vehicles that were rigged to cheat on emissions tests and could end up paying far less in compensation than anticipated. Mary Nichols, head of the California Air Resources Board, or CARB, told the German business daily Handelsblatt that talks with Volkswagen over fixing the tainted diesel vehicles were “going well” and that the German car maker was “clearly more forthcoming” than in the past.

stever

Dunno about that but the crisis has given VW a good excuse to cut production costs so that those numbers will get closer to Toyota's.

Volkswagen, Slowed by Diesel Scandal, Sees Sales and Profit Rebound (NT Times)

Mr_Shiftright

Looks like VW is now actually #1:

http://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/derbyshire-s-toyota-loses-world-s-top-selling-car-maker-crown-to-vw/story-29564488-detail/story.html

fintail

Oh don't let the SJWs see that.

gagrice

Interesting that both Toyota and GM sales are down first six months. What is GM's excuse?

hpmctorque

GM's reason, not excuse, is that it deliberately reduced sales to fleets, to, (1) enhance residual values and, (2) to improve profit margins. The outcome was that GM just posted better than expected financial results, while Ford, which didn't restrict fleet sales, posted disappointing results.

Mary Barra, GM's CEO, has stated that GM's goal is to deliver great products ("no more bad cars") and remain on a sound footing even when industry sales weaken. Retaking world sales leadership isn't a goal, although it could eventually happen.

Michaell

hpmctorque said:

GM's reason, not excuse, is that it deliberately reduced sales to fleets, to, (1) enhance residual values and, (2) to improve profit margins. The outcome was that GM just posted better than expected financial results, while Ford, which didn't restrict fleet sales, posted disappointing results.

Mary Barra, GM's CEO, has stated that GM's goal is to deliver great products ("no more bad cars") and remain on a sound footing even when industry sales weaken. Retaking world sales leadership isn't a goal, although it could eventually happen.

Putting profitability above sales goals is the right way to do things, IMO. If the sales numbers increase as a byproduct, then that's just a bonus.

Can you think of a bad GM car that has been released in the last 24 months?

fintail

Skoda coming to Murka?

I have no particular embrace of VW, but I find some Skodas to be pretty sharp.

hpmctorque

http://www.autonews.com/article/20160802/RETAIL03/160809957/gm-will-take-aim-at-vw-with-diesel-chevy-cruze

gagrice

hpmctorque said:

http://www.autonews.com/article/20160802/RETAIL03/160809957/gm-will-take-aim-at-vw-with-diesel-chevy-cruze

Our old friend Rocky has a Cruze diesel leased and loves it. He is looking forward to getting the new one when it gets here.

Mr_Shiftright

I can'tthink of a really "bad" GM car made in the last few years but could name a few very mediocre ones.

gagrice

Looks like VW may get aggressive here shortly on the EV market. Just looking at my local dealer inventory. They have a good supply of e-Golf cars. I will test drive next time we are in there.

The beleaguered VW brand is gearing up to change the subject from its diesel scandal with 5 new all-electric models. It will show a prototype of the first one next month. Here's what we know.

http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/08/16/volkswagen-will-follow-tesla-motors-lead-with-5-ne.aspx?source=yahoo-2&utm_campaign=article&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=yahoo-2&yptr=yahoo

Will Toyota follow up with any EVs? They keep trying and failing to have a hit. I see their Plug-in Prius is a big flop. I think they sold the last 4 in July. Prius sales are in the toilet as well, down 29%. Maybe they reached their limit on tax payer money.

Mr_Shiftright

Toyota does not seem interested in EVs. ALL hybrid sales are down, not just Toyota Prius. It's because of the cheap gas and the increased efficiency of regular ICE engines.

Still, Toyota is going to crank out at least 300,000 Prius this year, maybe 350K. Not too shabby, even if disappointing relative to their projected sales goal. Some car companies would kill for those numbers.

So today EVs are the darling of the greenies; tomorrow it might be hydrogen or banana peels. Who knows? Things are shifting so quickly right now.

fintail

Mr. Fusion couldn't come soon enough, unless negligent engineering (with slaps on the wrist, as it involves no lies) produces mini-Chernobyls.

stever

"Science... never solves a problem without creating ten more." Shaw.

stever

Fun article in the WSJ by Dan Neil. It's a registration only link but you may be able to find it free with a net search.

The guy has a way with words. Well, he did win a Pulitzer.

"VW brand’s U.S. year-to-date sales were down 10.3% in November, which management probably considered good news, on balance. VW brand’s other challenges include a shattered U.S. dealer force and a reputation for reliability that rivals country-music great George Jones."

2017 Volkswagen Golf Alltrack Review: VW’s Guide to Practical Magic

Mr_Shiftright

It's always been something of a mystery to me why VW consistently has failed to make any car in their entire stable as reliable as the average Toyota.

fintail

Given the mass media firestorm over dieselgate, a 10% loss is a victory indeed - not to mention withstanding the persistent QC/bug complaints. It'll be interesting to see how they fare next year.

Mr_Shiftright

Lucky for VW that their cars drive well--if it weren't for the driving experience, they'd have a much tougher row to hoe. They'd be the Mitsubishi of German cars. Or not.....a Mitsubishi would probably be more reliable than pretty much any German car.

fintail

Driving and interiors, that's all that matters to some. I had a co-worker who swore by leasing a new VW every few years because of the interiors - no matter the issues. He eventually switched to Subaru (because of course, Seattle). I think the most recent generation of MB is at least reliable as Mitsu

Something else to consider about VW sales volume is that it is a very global brand. 10% decrease in US sales hurts, but doesn't maim.

Mr_Shiftright

I think the VW Golf is the best selling car in Europe at the moment