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For most people, the $3000 premium even coupled with a $2000 worse negotiating deal due to demand, leaves an actual cost over 4 years of around $2500.
At a very conservative $300 per year fuel savings over 4 years, the average person has to find $1300 worth of value in increased power, greener planet, less time spent at a gas station, and less dependence on middle eastern oil.
I don't know about most Lexus owners. My wife bought her LS400 in 1990. It has under 80k miles and still runs great. It gets consistent 19/27 MPG. She has not found a car she likes as well. Changing cars every 2 to 5 years is more polluting than driving an old car with slightly worse emission ratings. In the case of the Lexus, the new LS430 is no better on emissions or mileage.
"We'd like to thank all of our Lexus Hybrid Newsletter readers for the insightful
questions that have been submitted about the Lexus RX 400h and the
technology behind it. We're in the process of answering these questions and
we'll be sharing that information with you in upcoming editions of the Lexus
Hybrid Newsletter. However, we'd like to take this opportunity to answer the
most frequently asked question of all: "When will the RX 400h be available?"
We think the best way to answer that is to share the very latest information
regarding the timing of the Lexus RX 400h launch, as well as some
enlightening new product information:
This is an exciting time for hybrid vehicles, with demand and acceptance
continuing to grow as new products enter the market. We couldn't be more
thrilled with the reception that the RX 400h has received from the media
and from informed consumers like you.
For the last two years, our target launch date for the all-new Lexus RX 400h
luxury utility vehicle has been late 2004. With the final development stage
completed and the pre-production phase now beginning, our launch date
has been more finely focused. We are now looking at early 2005 for the
official launch.
The RX 400h's eye-catching exterior is similar to the acclaimed RX 330's,
while adding style elements such as unique 18-inch wheels, dark chrome
grille, sporty air intake, round foglamps and jeweled taillamps. The computer-
controlled powertrain seamlessly blends power from the V6 gasoline engine,
the electric-drive motors and the generator. In place of the traditional
tachometer, the RX 400h has an illuminated power meter that displays the
level of power generated by the gas-electric hybrid powertrain. The driver
will also be able to monitor the gas-electric power distribution on the
standard seven-inch touch-panel display screen that comes with the
navigation system.
The RX 400h all-wheel-drive hybrid powertrain combines two powerful
electric-drive motors with the highly efficient 3.3-liter V6 engine found in
the RX 330 to significantly improve low- to mid-speed acceleration and
overall fuel efficiency. The system is a full hybrid, meaning that the RX 400h
is capable of operating in separate gas or electric modes, as well as a mode
that combines power from both.
The RX 400h will develop a combined system output of approximately
270 horsepower (versus 230 horsepower in the RX 330) and deliver
combined fuel economy equivalent to the current average of a compact
sedan. Zero-to-sixty acceleration will also improve over the current
RX 330's sub-eight-second time. The RX 400h will also be rated as a
Super Ultra-Low Emission Vehicle (SULEV), one of the most stringent
emissions ratings in the industry.
The RX 400h uses a regenerative braking system to further boost system
efficiency. When the vehicle is coasting or the brakes are applied, the electric
motor functions as a generator, capturing kinetic energy in the form of heat
collected through the braking system. It then converts that energy into usable
electricity to recharge the hybrid battery.
In short, the new RX 400h will become the premium model in the RX series,
offering increased performance, smooth operation, better fuel efficiency and
a host of high-technology, safety, luxury amenities and comfort features."
I was recently told that it takes 5 years for a solar cell located in southern CA to generate enough electricity to equal that used to manufacture it.
========================
The first part is wrong and the second is just silly.
My brother in law is a solar researcher and a brilliant physics engineer. He is very green. He drives a Prius and believes Hybrids are a critical piece of the conservation picture. I trust his opinion.
I think it is time to post this chart again. It clearly shows that the Prius is more of a polluter in the manufacturing than a conventional ICE vehicle. Maybe you would like to explain the NiMH battery shortage that Toyota is experiencing.
I don't believe the price difference of $8K is the worst case scenario. My Lexus dealer told me the 400h would cost extra $3K to $5K. I just take the average of $4K.
From the 330 board, people have been reporting deals with the 04 330 anywhere between $3K and $5K off MSRP. I did receive an offer of ~$4400 off MSRP for a new 04 330, but decide to wait. With the 400h, I bet I would not be able to negotiate a penny off the MSRP coming Spring 05. I bet would have to pay sticker price for it. There goes the other $4K difference.
Also I do not change car every 2 to 5 years, even if I could if I wanted to. To me, the best way to get the most money out of your car if you can afford it and if you can stand it is to pay cash for your car and drive it to the ground. I cannot stand driving a car to the ground, but for each car I own, I do plan to own it for a period of 10 to 12 years; unless I have so much problems it's driving me crazy. During the (planned) ownership period, you need to calculate your antipated repairs (these are only estimated amount, not with any certainty).
wohlf, you had mentioned that my other numbers are wrong. I would appreciate if you can be specific about which numbers and how wrong they are.
============================
All goods and services take resources to produce. New technologies are generally produced in a less developed and less refined infrastructure at lower volumes and therefore take proportionally more resources. Also, more complex items take more resources. OK, I get that. But are you saying that that the pollution that is a by-product of production is a primary factor limiting production? If so, I disagree.
These countries we have polluted for years are rising up and saying enough.
=============================
This part about countries rising up and limiting production as revenge... sorry, it still seems silly.
Why do I think there is a shortage of vehicles? I take Toyota at their word. Demand is outstripping production capability especially at the battery plant.
======================
Wrong was a poor choice of words. Farfetched may be better. Look, if the parameters you set forth are really true and you must own the vehicle for 10 years, and you are positive that you will have a major repair in year 7 or 8, don't buy it.
Over half of new car buyers lease. I assume that of those that buy, at least half keep the car 5 years or less. Therefore it is probably safe to say that 70% to 80% of new Lexus buyers keep their car for less than 5 years. I expect the average is 3 to 4 years... just a guess.
My only point is that 400h owners will still have 50% of what they paid for the car in residual value four years later. In other words if they pay $40k they can get $20k four years later when they sell it. If they lease it, they only pay $20k. So the real cost to the average person is half of the price difference between the 330 and the 400h.
I believe the real price difference will be $4000 to $6000 during the first year. Back out your residual and you are looking at $2000 to $3000. If your recoup $1500 in fuel savings in 4 years, you are paying $500 to $1500 for the other advantages the 400h has. The extra power alone usually costs more. I hope the ecological and patriotic advantages are worth this relatively small cost to most people.
You say that your real cost difference over the life of the vehicle is $15k. I say for most people it is less than $3k, and they get a lot of value for their money.
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Cost and timing of battery replacement is an unknown factor at this point.
I am not saying that a vehicle over 150K cannot be usable, am presently driving a 94 Saab 9000 Aero with 193K. It looks nice, interior still in good shape, ride is good (a few shakes), averages about 27MPG and will still go well over 130MPH, but I am under no illusions it is worth a lot of money.
====================
Lexus vehicles have an icredibly high reale. The Prius has the highest resale in its size range. A year old vehicle fetches almost sticker! Saying the 400h won't have solid resale is ludicrous. It already does. You can lock in over 50% after 4 years with a Lexus lease.
The 400h simply will return its price premium in performance and fuel savings and resale value.
If I had to replace it.
The 400h simply will return its price premium in performance and fuel savings and resale value."
Whatever the resale value is, if it turns out an expensive battery replacement is required, the resale value will go down.
Also, a year old Prius doesn't have to factor in battery replacement. It probably still has 130K plus on it's battery warranty.
The question marks arise when the vehcile gets towards the end of it's battery warranty.
Did not read the bottom sentence!
"If I had to replace it"
In other words, a "comparable" car to the 12 year old Lexus LS400 is the new Sonata.....
The new Lexus LS430 is NOT a comparable car to the 1992 version - it's three or four generations removed and VASTLY superior.
So to replace his 1992 LS400 with a comparable car would be more like $30,000, not 60K.....
Laterz..........
90-94 LS: 1st Generation
95-00 LS: 2nd Generation
01-current LS: 3rd Generation
"So to replace his 1992 LS400 with a comparable car would be more like $30,000, not 60K....."
This is kinda misleading also. A new Hyundai Sonata still isn't as quiet, luxurious, or cushy as a 1992 LS400. Nor does it have the same power or straight line acceleration as a 92 LS400. Also, a 92 LS400 still looks better than a '05 Sonata(IMO). Also, I would think a 92 LS400 is still safer today than a '05 Sonata.
It may be technologically better than an early 1990s LS400. It is butt ugly and my wife decided to keep her old LS400 for that very reason. She was ready to buy a 2004 LS430 until she got a close look at it....
At hwy cruise speed with ~70db of white noise, the fidelity of even my Nak system is a waste and the nav system in my 01 RX has proven itself to be fully useless.
-bigger V8. 290bhp vs. 250bhp.
-variable valve timing. Fuel economy is improved over yours even though power has increased.
-cleaner engine.
-6-speed automatic
-safety gear(VSC, brakeassist, pre-collision, curtain airbags, knee airbags, HIDs)
-larger interior/much larger trunk
-more interior amenities.
the list goes on.
Bigger V8....I would have settled for a V6.
VVTi..... and I should care..?
Cleaner engine....at 90k miles the oil still comes out clean at each oil change..
6-speed transmision.... And this is an advantage... How?
Safety gear....Haven't had an accident and don't plan on one...
HID...you got me there. But there are aftermarket kits (search for hylow and HID) that in my estimation are likely better than OEM anyway.
Larger interior/much larger trunk....Again, this is an advantage...How?
More interior amenities....Sorry, don't miss something I've never experienced to begin with.
You should have just bought a ES250 back then. Better yet, should have just stuck with Camry's or Corolla's if luxury features/amenities aren't something you need.
Not according to the EPA for the LS430 18/25mpg. We get consistent 19 in town and 27 on trips. And none of the features you mention help the LS430 in the looks department. It is UGLY! Lexus should have stayed with their original designs instead of trying to compete with the cheap plastic crap that is dominating the auto market. The SC300/400 is still the best looking car Lexus ever built. People will hang on to them rather than trade to an uglier version just to have a new car.
I would say "want" rather than "need" but....
Just what have I said that implies that??
I traded my 2000 AWD RX300 in for an 01 AWD RX300 because I "wanted" HID and VSC. Actually at my age HID is probably more of a need and I figure VSC will be invaluable in an SUV.
Would you have bought the new RX300 if they changed the style and you thought it was not as attractive?
On AFS I think it is actually detrimental.
But....
On WWest's preferrence for the first generation RX and LS, his view is the reason for the high re-sale values that all Lexus owners enjoy.
My own observation on the loaner 2004 RX330 is a disappointment in the engine and exhaust noise. Both are significantly higher than my T&C van, and my son's 2004 Honda Accord.
And didn't I already acknowledge the HID?
Having VSC on a FWD SUV is an absolute necessity.
IMMHO Ecru/white interiors are reserved for blue hair LOLITS driving across Florida hogging the left lane.
Yes, granted, there are improvements in the new LS430. But there are some very basic reasons why we buy luxury cars and not plain jane transportation. It comes down to need vs want and what I can afford.
The bottom line, frankly, is that if Lexus isn't going to play my game (build the car I want) I'll simply take my baseball bat (money) and go home.
I was involved in PDP-8/11 hardware tied to Telco equipment. That was a long time ago.
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