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Future Collectibles--Make Your Prediction
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Also, for celeb ownership to boost a car's value, it has to be very well documented--not just a car owned by Elvis' gardener or the "Sinatra Estate"...usually the celeb's name on the registration or some such is required for people to get excited at auction...or a photo of the celeb in the car helps a lot. So it's not a car in the White House Motor Pool that's important, it's the car that the president rode in with the ambassador to sign the famous treaty, with photos. You see the difference?
One has to be very careful of "claims" of ownership, and also the car itself has to be somewhat interesting. Seinfeld's Porsche Speedster is a a lot more valuable than Amy Grant's Taurus,by a long shot.
I suppose a special supercharged "F" Bird could bring big money, but really, $35,000 isn't much of a premium over a normal nice T-Bird. Barbra must not have much pulling power in the collectible market, or perhaps the car was trashed?
the comment rea made about Sosa's ride....now that I think about it, there are probably hundreds of people out there that have their eye on it. I mean if folks are paying those high prices for Sammy's b.o. athelitic shirt, then the cars must also be fetching some big bucks.
I'd like to have Alan Jackson's pickup truck.....bet it's a Ford.
Case in point, one guy has a 1998 Z28 and races it. Also, another guy has a 1991 Mustang 5.0, and instead of working on it some more, he plans to "just buy a new Z28 and be done with it".
Regarding future collectables, it depends on desirablity and rarity. Sedans are more desirable in this day and age, so some of the "performance" editions may be collectable. Boomers mostly desried 2- doors as teens, but today's HS kids are not repelled by Maximas, etc. To some of them, cars before the 1979 Mustang are "old and ugly" (quoted from 22 y/o co-worker)
I am sure there will be posts to the contrary, but I am just stating what I have heard.
Also I don't think cars are as predominant an interest with kids like they used to be. Kids are into computers and multimedia and the web. Cars are something they buy after they grow up and make money. I know there's an active car culture in the young 20s crowd, but it's not as widespread as it was in previous generations by a long shot.
Will people collect 4-door Accords. No, no more than most don't want 1958 4-door Oldsmobiles, or at least not enough to pay any decent price for them. So if restoration costs continue to go up but the value of certain cars doesn't go up with the cost, very few people will take the time and money to save them. Why restore a 1963 Ford Falcon 4-door sedan and spend $12,000 doing it when you end up with a rather plain looking $2,500 car? Well, maybe if it was grandpa's or something.
When a recession comes, there will be less demand and little or no appreciation of these kind of collectables (relative to the value of money or even newer "plastic" vehicles). Only the very rich and museums will care about owning the true classics in the future...
Wil
This is why it's best to collect cars of true merit and beauty if you're going to spend a lot of money, or, conversely, collect just ordinary old cars for fun and don't put any money in them, or restore them as a hobby and forget about getting your money back out.
No one knows what these old Duesies and Packards will be worth in the future. Maybe very little, because they will be as useless as an old horse and carriage is today. But certainly, even as "art in metal", they will have some value...but even 18th century hand-made gold-inlaid pianos (surely, works of art) aren't worth as much as some of these old cars are now. I'd take a wild guess and say that the days of wildly escalating values for precious old cars is gone forever, and that their fate is really based on economic factors in the future. Who knows? Maybe they'll even be melted down for their metal in the future...ghastly thought, but after all we are just speculating here for fun.
I'm really sorry it's not working out for the EV-1. Was the car particulary troublesome. I never heard anything one way or the other.
the 1990 vehicles expected to become classics.
In his article he names the decade of the 90's
candidates.
1991 Acura NSX any Corvette ZR-1
1991 Lotus Elan 1998 Porsche 911
low mileage '90 Miata's
1998-2000 Contoru SVT's
1993 Cadillac Allante
Don Gartlis says the Viper or Prowler (wonder why)
and believe it or not, any convertible Yugos in
great shape!
Viper, yes, Prowler...just a curiousity....a V-6, automatic "classic"? I don't think so!
And rare doesn't mean valuable in the collectible car world, I'm afraid. There are many many rare cars out there that are worth little. It's all about supply and demand, and judging by the market, there are plenty of Prowlers out there to satisfy demand.
As for disappearing nameplates, here again this doesn't translate into value...there are types of Nash and Studebaker and Henry J that you can't hardly give away today.
This is not to say that cars like Prowler will be without value--not so, but they will be curiousities with a limited market and a ceiling price that won't rise, I beleive....like say an MGC or BMW 2002 or Delorean....if they were stocks, you would have sold them as having "matured in value".
You know, unlike 15 years ago, the collector market these days is pretty savvy and knowledgable. Very few collectors are writing big checks for cars with inflated or hyped reputations anymore. But if something is priced right, almost anyone will buy it, of course. (You probably wouldn't buy a restored VW bug for $10,000, but you might for $2,500, and so might I--so too in the future for Prowler I think--if sellers are realistic, there will be limited interest in them).
As for the M5, anything with that much power will always attract interest, but I'm not so sure about high, high value...it is, after all, a 4-door sedan, a body style that has historically rarely done well as a collectible. It'll probably end up like the Mercedes 300SEL 6.3...the German "muscle car" type of car, again of limited interest except to the few willing to keep a complex old German 4-door car running. I think most people would rather spend their collector car dollars on sexier open cars or perhaps very fast and rare coupes (NSX, Vette, Viper, etc.).
The 70s Vettes pose a problem...they've already had almost 30 years to get valuable and haven't succeeded, so something about them definitely does not appeal to collectors...probably a combination of unfortunate styling and low horsepower engines (again, if it's a sportscar, it should GO like one, not just look like one).
I myself think a Chrysler Corboba is hopeless as a collectible, or any 70s /80s 4-door American car for that matter--you can buy this cars all day long for $2,000 right now. They are really nice rides for the money and all that, but very undistinguished cars. A car has to be special to be collectible, that's the bottom line.
NOw the Trans Ams and Z28s have a better chance, depending on years and options, I would agree with that--because here you have at least some of the elements that make a car collectible:
a)very popular when new
b) good performance/horsepower
c) attractive
What they don't have for a collectible is:
a)rarity (they make LOTS of them)
b)ease of restoration in the future (forming new plastic parts, new computer boards--all this will be difficult for the aftermarket unless demand is very high to justify the expense).
So we'll see--it's fun to speculate.
BMW M3
Usually when a car refuses to depreciate any further than a certain "floor price", that's a good sign that it is being collected. If it wasn't, the price would continue to sink until it hits "rock bottom", which means "the price of any decent used car in the year 2000"---rock bottom right now is about $2,000-2,500.
So if a car has a $5,000 floor price, that shows it isn't behaving like an ordinary used old car---but say many US 4-doors from the 70s & 80s are selling around the "rock bottom" price, so they'll probably always be "used cars", not "collectibles".
2) Mercury Marauder(*when* it comes out *if* it
lives up to billing)
3) Corvette ZR-1(I think they made this in the
90's so it counts)
4) Dodge Viper
5) Lexus SC300/SC400
6) Maxda Miata(It will never be an expensive
classic, but it will be in demand for some time)
7) Jaguar XJR
8) Jaguar XK8
9) BMW Z3
10)Audi TT
I don't think that being a sedan counts against the choices in the list, nor does high production. The number of cars available doesn't make it a classic, the number of cars available compared to the number of people who want to buy them. I think the three rear drive sedans are going to have a serious following who will lust after/buy them and keep the price up well into the future. The XJR, the Impala, and the Marauder all have performance numbers, and looks, that can give a serious spanking to many sports cars.
Miatas are the 90's equivalent of an MG. The big question as to collectibility will be when Mazda discontinues production. If they keep building them for 30 years like the mustang, only certain years will be collectible. Hopefully there will never be a Miata II ;-)
I have to say I am rethinking the XK8 though. To me it looks like someone took a Miata and increased its size 40% or so. It just doesn't have that wonderful head turning quality that I have associated w/Jags of all types.
You can buy a very decent 1970 Impala four-door for $2,500 bucks all day long.
So anything is possible with enough imagination and money.
Thanks, I feel better now. I've owned three new Pontiacs in the last seven years; you'd think I'd learn.
I also agree that the '93 Northstar Allante is a lock to be a collectible.
True - a lot of them were made...
There is a car that contradicts the general trend, though...a 1965 Jaguar Mark II 4-door sedan...now pushing over $20,000...but even here, people want the rarest car with the best options...a 3.8 with wire wheels, LHD and 4-speed trans. A 1965 RHD Mark II with disk wheels and automatic you practically can't give away...1/3 the price for the same year car!
(1) '98 Lumina LTZ (best looking Lumina EVER)
(2) '00 Regal GS (best looking of Buick models)
(3) '00 Mustang Cobra
(4) '00 Camaro SS
(5) '00 Chrysler 300M
Hey "shifty", I take exception to your snobbish comments in Post #242. In my opinion, there ARE some collectible mass-produced sedans. What about the '58 Impala? Some of the '60's Galaxy 500's qualify. How about the Olds sedans from the early '60's, and Buick sedans from the early '70's?
Keep in mind that I don't make up the prices and the popularity, the buying/collecting public does--I just follow the market and report what's happening.
As for the modern cars you mentioned, I could see the Cobra and Camaro SS being collected, but not the others. They are really too common I think, and there's nothing special about them that I can see. At least the Mustang and the SS are somewhat limited in production and have really good performance numbers, two BIG factors in collectibility. Being attractive isn't really enough, or hasn't been in the past anyway.
But it's fun to speculate.
I always try to project the idea of "supply and demand" into the future, because supply and demand is what actually dictates collectibility. And I just can't see the demand for 1998 Luminas being higher than the number of cars out there for sale in the future.....more demand than cars =high value/// more cars than demand= low value.
Can you see people choosing a Lumina over a Camaro SS 20 years from now, what with the magic name of Camaro and the history and myth? What's a Lumina's "heritage"? Who cares about Luminas in the large general population, except as cars you drive, enjoy and dispose of?
I just don't see it myself.