The Stock Market and Investing

Karen_SKaren_S Member Posts: 5,092
Are you an investor or is your financial plan less risky? Like playing the lottery!
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  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    I'm just sitting here watching my (very conserative) ROTH IRA plunge further and further....I'm getting whoozy.....ugh!

    I can hardly imagine what the more aggressively invested people are going through right now.

    Best not to look for a month or so.
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Pennsylvania Furnace, PAMember Posts: 9,400
    I heard it put very well on an investment show on the radio yesterday. Whether it's the stock market or real estate, if you're not looking at it as a long term investment, you're just speculating.
    If you hear yourself saying, "I bought 100 shares of XYZ Corp six months ago, and made $XXXX...", you're a speculator. If you're a day trader, you're a full fledged gambler. :surprise:
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 53,508
    I try not to look at all. I got hosed for a bit back in 01/02 and I don't want to have that feeling again. I'll stick with some blissful ignorance.

    I do fear a recession with a dose of inflation is coming.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    Oh I think real estate is much more of a speculation than the stock market because in the stock market at least you can invest solely in companies that have added value, services, building or income. With a house, only the price goes up---it's the same old house most of the time, there is no value added as the price goes up. So I think a well=picked stock is a much better investment than real estate.

    Also historically stocks have performed better. Real estate has been stagnant for most of the time it has been monitored. The last crazy 20-25 years could be the exception rather than the rule.

    Basically I believe that real estate values are nothing more than a concept in people's heads. Grandpa's $40,000 house in 1970, now worth $500,000, might really only be worth $40,000 after all. People might just wake up and think that some day and there's nothing to prove otherwise. But Wal-Mart has grown quite a bit since 1970, so that's different.
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Pennsylvania Furnace, PAMember Posts: 9,400
    It IS the same old house. It's sort of like the way I look at my car. My car doesn't increase or decrease in value, it's worth exactly one functioning car.
    My house is sort of the same way. While the world sees it as increasing in value, it's worth one place to live for me. I've been very good about not trying to leverage that increasing value by taking home equity loans and the like. The equity "reward" comes at the end of my use of the house, when I sell it and can afford to finish my day roaming the countryside, or pass it along to my kids to leave them a place to stay :shades:
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    There you go. Sell it and buy an RV and take off and simplify.

    Hmmm...not that all RVs are "simple" these days.

    Well then buy a SIMPLE RV!

    I decided to retire early, about age 29. :P
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Pennsylvania Furnace, PAMember Posts: 9,400
    Hmm... maybe being back on the road would be fun :P

    Thanks for the inspiration for Sunday's blog entry! :shades:
    http://www.carspace.com/blogs/AlternateRoute/
  • corvettecorvette United StatesMember Posts: 8,479
    My numbers look really bad with the recent volatility plus various expenses (paint and other minor repairs and upgrades that don't really add monetary value) for my new house. In the long term, the brokerage accounts should look better, and my expenses on the house will have given me a nice place to live.
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Pennsylvania Furnace, PAMember Posts: 9,400
    If you follow the market day to day, you could go nuts :P

    But when those moments of despair hit me, and I'm wondering about the future, I just think about the people who have $20-$30,000 out on credit cards at a 29% interest rate and then I don't feel bad that I have my mortgage paid down to less than that to go at 6%.

    When I have an emergency and have to have a couple of hundred out on a credit card I get all edgy!
  • gamlegedgamleged Member Posts: 442
    I do indeed follow the market every day (more than once in a day) and I consider myself lucky to be down only about 6% in my cumulative retirement accounts. But recently I've bought some severely depressed bulk shipping stock (EGLE) that I'd earlier in the year made some money on (and then sold, fortunately!). Since the sector is dependent on the global economy with people shipping iron ore and grain and coal hither and yon, it'll be a while before shipping recovers, but I suck at predicting a low, so I'll buy a little more on the larger dips (DOW down another 500 points or so) and then I'll be patient. :shades:

    I noted yesterday that spot gold broke below 700 for a bit, touching 680 before closing back up at 734. I think we're seeing the gold bugs seeking liquidity, getting ready to get back into equities as a bottom forms someday soon in the equity markets...
  • Kirstie_HKirstie_H EdmundsAdministrator Posts: 11,123
    I'm in a stock club, and we're looking at this dip as an opportunity to buy stock at a discount. Look for companies with plenty of cash-on-hand that are likely to be undervalued only because of the massive sell-offs and economic fears, then buy 'em. Those are the ones most likely to survive, and re-bound quickly once there's an upturn.

    Well... that's our operating theory, anyway - we're just a bunch of pub economists when it comes down to it :)

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  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,457
    Or loses less than expected, depending on which headline you read.

    In any event their stock popped 7% in early trading today and is on course to close at a 52 week high.
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Enough car talk for now ;) . Let's all raise a glass and toast Len for his prediction months ago that the Dow would reach at least 10,000 by the end of the year. More recently (October 8), here is what he said:

    I was never big on a correction down to 9100 or 9200. I always thought small adjustment and then back up we go. My belief was tied to stronger than expected earnings (thanks to all those job cuts unfortunately, plus high incremental margins) and some optimism on future revenue growth. So far the little bit of earnings news we saw is bearing that out. Unless we see some real negative news here or a geo-political issue, I'm going to say that we may have seen the fall back bottom out already. If earnings are more robust we may end up nearer 1200 on the S&P and 10,750+ on the Dow by year end or early Q1 2010. That's my thinking now.

    How can anyone not believe Len now? The great earnings report of first, Intel after yesterday's close and JP Morgan early this morning are testaments to Len's uncanny foresight into the stock market. Len, is it possible for the Dow to reach 12,000 to 13,000 in 2010? I started buying some of the stocks back (that I sold near the previous high) about a week ago, but unfortunately I did not buy them when the Dow corrected down to 9,500 (I think that's about where it corrected, or was it a little lower?).
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    Let's all raise a glass and toast Len for his prediction months ago that the Dow would reach at least 10,000 by the end of the year.

    yes... "clink".

    The great earnings report of first, Intel after yesterday's close

    Charlie, check the posts... I urged you to buy Intel days before that report came out. I had it pegged when to buy it. I have recently shared some of my huge winners with you guys, including AIG when it made that massive recent gain... I made six digits on AIG. And, I'm not just talking about predicting the Dow's average here... because the media is full of guys that have predicted the Dow's average. I'm talking about picking actual specific stocks that have outperformed the Dow... and sharing some of them with you. :)

    I did not buy them when the Dow corrected down to 9,500

    Sorry Charlie, the market has not "corrected"... not yet. That most recent drop was just a typical dip in a string of similar dips... check the percentages and you will see. The actual "correction" is yet to come, but I don't expect it before more gains... that's why I'm back in the market, after getting out during the dip.

    Anyway, no matter what your perspective is on all of this, I just don't want you out there thinking the correction has happened when it hasn't.

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Charlie, check the posts... I urged you to buy Intel days before that report came out. I had it pegged when to buy it.

    Yes you did but I did not buy it. I bought a few others that will do well I think. Tag, you also deserve a lot of credit for being on record with certain individual stocks. BTW, as you know I deserve a bit of credit as well (patting myself on the back :blush: ). I stated back in March that the early March market low was going to hold. That is the time I started buying stocks. Where I differed with Len here was that I was very confident in the Obama Administration making the right decisions as opposed to Len who was thinking that people like Bernake were the key.

    Sorry Charlie, the market has not "corrected"... not yet. That most recent drop was just a typical dip in a string of similar dips... check the percentages and you will see. The actual "correction" is yet to come, but I don't expect it before more gains... that's why I'm back in the market, after getting out during the dip.

    I believe it is a matter of semantics. To me that was a correction (small one but a correction nevertheless). I just wish I had pulled the trigger sooner and buy a lot of stocks at that time. Timing is everything in the markets. The question now becomes this: When are we going to see a MAJOR pullback of let's say at least 800-1000 points on the Dow?
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    Tag, you also deserve a lot of credit for being on record with certain individual stocks. BTW, as you know I deserve a bit of credit as well (patting myself on the back). I stated back in March that the early March market low was going to hold.

    I think we can safely pat ourselves on the back without getting any inflated egos... because we have legitimately made some very good calls here, and shared very good information with each other and others here that are interested. After all, when a team has good strategy and wins a series of games, they have every right to feel good together about their accomplishments.

    I believe it is a matter of semantics.

    How can that be? If there have been a series of similar-sized (percentage-wise) dips along the way, why would we call any one of them a correction?

    It was a dip that came at a good point, granted, from a psychological perspective, but it was by no means a correction... semantics shmantics... it was not a correction Charlie. You need to be careful here, because the real correction is yet to come.

    When are we going to see a MAJOR pullback of let's say at least 800-1000 points on the Dow?

    We need to see around a 10% pullback at some point, IMO. But, also IMO, after we see that ultimate correction, we will see new highs. So, even if you are stuck in the correction, you could weather it out and come out on top. Of course, if you can navigate around that correction, that would be even better, but it would take some very good market timing.

    As far as when?

    IMO, at some point we will hear some very negative news from either the government or the private business sector... negative enough to suggest that the market has gotten ahead of itself... or that the market has too much risk. Once that happens, the selling will begin.

    Now, here is how I would respond to that scenario, when/if it should happen. I would get out of the market as soon as possible and then before I believe a bottom is reached, I would start to buy in at intervals, even if the market is still going down. I would ultimately build an average investment that is a little higher than the low, but considerably lower than the highs, and when the market returns, I would be well ahead. Trying to perfectly time the market is too risky in that we could lose those few important days with the huge gains, and that is always the biggest risk to being completely out of the market... because the truth is that most of the biggest gains happen in a small percentage of trading days... those are the key days we want to be in the market.

    Semantics, shmantics... sorry, I just wanted to say that again... has a bit of an East Coast ring to it. :P

    :)

    TM
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    Mr Cyclone

    I may have hurt your feeling with my compliment on the Sun, the other day, and not your market calls :) I too want to compliment Tagman, and yourself, with this latest round of market information....All I have benn able to commenton is that I think we are and have been in a bull market---and my travel posts that has lead to those thoughts.....The individual stocks I`l leave to others, as the cheap ones jump twenty forty percent quickly, and need to be purchased early ,,,,,Jflix certainly made a good observation in his gutsy predictions, Now if a person were to step back and take a look at where we were, it is very possible that when the Dow was say seven thousand, it was way oversold---way---and now at ten thousand, we a closer to even, so there may not be a meaningful selloff, just rolling selloffs, and resting....As I am not going to try and time anything, I am just buying slowly----mostly bonds-----in etf---and hope not to have to live through something we had last year....I just don`t see the long term value to owning a stock with a very small dividend, even though it is growing.....This is a traders market, and I don`t trust it Tony
  • circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,665
    Well, I want to complain TO the Sun....absolutely missing here in NJ today!

    I've been following all of the fantastic advice and strategies by the posters here regarding investing. Alas, I'm a buy and holder, probably one of the last. I kept everything pat throughout the holocaust and the ride was a doosie!! (Doosie: a thing which is an extreme example of its type).

    Now I am still down about 20% from the all-time S&P high. From all of the forecast, I should start gaining from the previous market top in about 5 years!!!! :sick:

    Speaking of Duesenberg - enjoy!
    image

    Regards,
    OW
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    How can that be? If there have been a series of similar-sized (percentage-wise) dips along the way, why would we call any one of them a correction?

    It was a dip that came at a good point, granted, from a psychological perspective, but it was by no means a correction... semantics shmantics... it was not a correction Charlie. You need to be careful here, because the real correction is yet to come.


    Tag, my friend, to me whether the words used are correction, dip, sell-off, pull-back, they all mean the same thing. It is just a matter of how much of a correction, sell-off, dip, we are talking about. When the Dow went from just above 9900 to 9500 a few weeks ago, that was a correction, sell-off, pull-back, or dip. Now if I use the word "collapse", that has an entirely different and much more ominous meaning for the market. In the late summer and fall of of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 we had a cataclysmic collapse.

    IMO, at some point we will hear some very negative news from either the government or the private business sector... negative enough to suggest that the market has gotten ahead of itself... or that the market has too much risk. Once that happens, the selling will begin.

    Now, here is how I would respond to that scenario, when/if it should happen. I would get out of the market as soon as possible and then before I believe a bottom is reached, I would start to buy in at intervals, even if the market is still going down. I would ultimately build an average investment that is a little higher than the low, but considerably lower than the highs, and when the market returns, I would be well ahead. Trying to perfectly time the market is too risky in that we could lose those few important days with the huge gains, and that is always the biggest risk to being completely out of the market... because the truth is that most of the biggest gains happen in a small percentage of trading days... those are the key days we want to be in the market.


    I have no disagreement at all with your above statements. BTW, the earnings of Google, IBM, and I believe one other technology stock were outstanding this afternoon. This will carry the market to new highs again tomorrow. We need Len to now give everyone his expertise once again.
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    Wow :) I hope Jose sees this ......What an era Tony
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    I may have hurt your feeling with my compliment on the Sun, the other day, and not your market calls

    Tony, the thought never crossed my mind. As I told you before, you are a wonderful human being and the world needs more people like you.

    This is a traders market, and I don`t trust it

    Everyone has different comfort levels. If you play the market, only risk what you can afford to lose.
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Well, I want to complain TO the Sun....absolutely missing here in NJ today!

    Well, the sun has been missing from much of the Midwest for about a week now. Harvesting is the slowest in history.

    Alas, I'm a buy and holder, probably one of the last. I kept everything pat throughout the holocaust and the ride was a doosie!!

    Keep the faith in this nation and you will be fine.
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    This will carry the market to new highs again tomorrow.

    I am invested in the tech stocks, as you know, like Intel and Google and others. I also own financials, but... beware the financials. They are the ones that might put on the brakes... very soon. Maybe next week? Watch closely, so we can get out when/if the bad news comes. If it does happen, Tony will be sitting pretty. :)

    TM
  • circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,665
    BTW, the earnings of Google, IBM, and I believe one other technology stock were outstanding this afternoon. This will carry the market to new highs again tomorrow. We need Len to now give everyone his expertise once again.

    As the W.O.O. would say: Not So Fast...Not SoFast...

    image

    AMD's results were also strong, with a much better than expected pro forma loss of 26 cents a share on a 22 percent sales decline to $1.4 billion. AMD shares fell 3 percent on the news, however.

    IBM's earnings of $2.40 a share and sales of $23.6 billion both topped forecasts, and the company raised its earnings guidance, but its shares slumped 3 percent in after-hours trading after services signings were less than expected.


    Regards,
    OW
  • 2001gs4302001gs430 Member Posts: 767
    have recently shared some of my huge winners with you guys, including AIG when it made that massive recent gain... I made six digits on AIG. And, I'm not just talking about predicting the Dow's average here...
    Cheers and congrats on your winner.
    OTOH, I did not pick up any of your recommendation as I am a bit fixated on acquiring some depressed real estate. Therefore my portfolio is on a steady march to paltry10-15% gain for the year (fingers crossed).
    Why do you think the financials are at risk?
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    Why do you think the financials are at risk?

    Well... it turns out my warning on the financials was a bullseye... within hours ahead of the bleeding.

    I already told you that the market's direction was based largely upon irrational trading, and not the concrete numbers... which we now see today. It's one thing to invest when there is a market sentiment, and ride the wave... but eventually the wave fizzles out and the real numbers present themselves... which is what is happening right now.

    I sold my stocks early this morning... all of them. I said yesterday that I would do that when the financials start their decent, and bring the market down with them. Now, the trickiest part is to determine if we are going to have that genuine correction, or if the irrational folks take this market back up higher than it should really be without a correction. At this point, I really want to see a major correction, and then get back in full force... but we'll see. If we don't see the genuine correction, I'll cherry pick a few stocks and work my way back in, and hopefully my timing won't be too far out of whack.

    I posted it here yesterday... "beware the financials" is what I posted... and today... bingo!

    TM
  • 2001gs4302001gs430 Member Posts: 767
    Got to give it to you tm, bullseye again...
    It looks like the December calls I wrote on BOA won't get called after all. :D
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Tag, there was a lot of talk/concern yesterday that the Bank of America report would not be at all pleasing this morning. Indeed it was a stinker and the market has been lower all day (but well of its lows at this writing).

    I only have a few stocks that I have been buying over the past 10 days and I am planning to stay with them right now. It is not a big investment. I also would like to see a decent correction, but the market has a way of fooling a lot of us.
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    I gotta give you credit Charlie for the way you hang in there during all sorts of brutal market ups and down. I tend to get out when it's bleeding, and sometimes that's a good thing, but sometimes it's not, because getting back in is always the next thing to figure out.

    In spite of what you might think, I actually don't have the cast iron stomach for stocks that some folks have. As a result, about 50% of my entire portfolio continues to be in bonds... long term bonds that offer very good interest rates, because they were acquired back when the rate of return was pretty good, especially in contrast to today's interest rates. So... half of my investment strategy is exactly in line with Tony's approach. :)

    Now that I am out of stocks (once again), I am forced to consider which ones I think are good investments moving forward. As I look at the world, I see areas of growth as well as areas of sluggishness, and then I see that some stocks depend upon certain types of spending that just isn't likely to happen, and others depend upon spending that is very likely to take place.

    IMO, I see certain areas of healthcare as possiblities, but risky and perhaps too complicated for my understanding, due to the U.S. political climate with regards to the healthcare programs that are being tossed around our government. In addition, I see that the automobile industry is poised for a comeback, but it will be a different kind of comeback then ever before, due to the changing face of the world energy situation, changing consumer preferences and perspectives on automobiles and transportation, and the increasing trend towards more future-minded vehicles than the SOS. I also see certain sectors of technology as very good possiblities. And, I see certain select retail areas that are currently trendy, such as Vans footwear as an example, which is a part of VF Corporation (VFC), a stock I have owned recently and it has done very well.

    As a result, going forward, I am leaning first and foremost towards investing in companies related to the wireless mobile internet expansion that is literally starting to explode all around the globe. This will be my primary focus over the next few days... to pick those companies that I believe will be the "best of the best" key players in this segment. This is where I totally believe a lot of money can be made, especially if I do this well. So, I am going to give this a very serious effort. I am not just making general statements or market predictions here, as I will give you the exact names of the stocks I select, and I will put my money where my mouth is. (Then I will pray a lot...LOL.)

    After that primary investment segment, I will then look towards a few other areas. I'll probably add a little Ford again, which you already know is simply a personal favorite of mine, as well as only a small handfull of other stocks that I believe will be leaders in their segments, or rising stars. And frankly, that's it! That's all I want to do at this point. The rest just feels too risky to me right now.

    Anyway, that's my current position with regards to the market (subject to change... haha)... for whatever it's worth... just sharing my perspectives on this with you and the rest of the gang here that might be interested. :)

    TM
  • lexusguylexusguy Member Posts: 6,419
    As a result, going forward, I am leaning first and foremost towards investing in companies related to the wireless mobile internet expansion that is literally starting to explode all around the globe. This will be my primary focus over the next few days... to pick those companies that I believe will be the "best of the best" key players in this segment.

    Any ideas in mind yet for this sector? I've been watching telecom in general and dipping my toes in every now and then, but I've mostly avoided it as it seems like there's a lot more risk here than reward. For example, I got into Verizon just as they were starting to rollout FiOS and did pretty well, but left soon after because it was evident that Verizon was going nowhere, since then, the stock has taken a beating.

    I think a lot of broadband in the future will be wireless, particularly to rural areas that will never make financial sense to wire with fiber optics. I'm just not sure yet who's going to do it. WiMax by all indications is a dud. LTE? Maybe, but again who's going to really benefit?
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    Sure... In part, I'll be looking into the companies that manufacture the hardware and the internal components and semiconductors. I'm still not sure about the carriers. At one point I had some money in the cellular tower companies, but I need to follow up on that more closely at this point to see if it's a good idea any more. Also, there are things going on with regards to streaming TV into those handhelds, and there are companies involved with that at different levels... worth a look. The e-book thing is literally days away from becoming a more immediate trend with unknown results, but it could be a good investment in its earliest days. I guess I intend to uncover every stone I can and take a good look. It's hard to imagine Google stock going up more, but I think it could. I recently did well with it, and I'll be looking at it again. Netbooks might do well, and certain retailers might benefit, but I don't really know until I take a close look. As I mentioned here recently, I expect gaming to grow, both on the console level and the mobile level, so I'll be looking into that as well... but this is all too early for me to get specific. I need time. I'll give you specific names after I do more homework over the next several days.

    What's your perspective on all of this?

    TM
  • lexusguylexusguy Member Posts: 6,419
    What's your perspective on all of this?

    I definitely agree that hardware and chips are better than the carriers. I took a chance with Motorola back in March and did quite well there. They were staring death in the face, but I think their handset business has a shot at a comeback, now that they are finished with the umpteen RAZR variations. Motorola could become the premier Android phone builder. HTC knows what they are doing with WinMo, but their Android phones have been pretty underwhelming. I got into Broadcom at the same time as Motorola, and that's also been doing well.
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    That certainly is a well thought out strategy, and clearly put.......I only wish all that thought could be used to make an investment, as it use to be ....As I have said, this is a traders market, and a person has to live with that, until times change.....On occasion I have made a decent trade, but really not much money in the whole scheme of thing, and also some poor ones, and they hurt more than the good ones :) Pride Cometh Before a Fall.....So I have taken a different approach---for me---these last nine months or so, and have gone the bond route......My thinking was and still is, if I can get a return of better than ten percent, and decide that is satisfactory, I have to leave alot on the table--IF-- I could trade and get twenty percent...Knowing the difficulty in trying to trade, I chose the lesser return....I hope that time shows, another more accustomed means to invest again, after doing the homework, and holding for a decent amount of time, and be rewarded for that...I do not plan on holding these etf for a long period of time, but neither do I plan on selling until I feel confident that there is a better chance, and the market isn`t rigged agains us----Remember Goldman is just waiting to take you down with their trading programs etc...Big Occupus(sp) sucking the life out

    Tagman you have made a huge adjustment, and have landed on your feet, so I congradulate you as a human being, and I sure wish I had an answer for a good trading strategy---other than doing what your `gut ` tells you......Tony
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    Tagman you have made a huge adjustment, and have landed on your feet, so I congradulate you as a human being...

    Tony, you consistently demonstrate so much class around here... and I thank you for your kind words.

    Without reservation, I agree there is now a large amount of risk in the stock market at this point, and that is why I am trying to be focused and very careful, as I don't want to get caught up in the "trading", as you have appropriately described it, IMO. I now feel more comfortable with market if I make a good "investment" in a rapidly growing segment of technology. That kind of stock purchase feels more legitimate to me... even though there is still risk.

    It is getting harder to justify many of the different share prices, as too many of them now seem overvalued. Yet, I do believe there are still some bargains and smart purchases out there.

    The more I think about it, the more I want to suggest that as I move forward, no one here should in any way consider my stock selections as any kind of recommendation... because I will be taking on more risk than before, and I wouldn't want anyone here to lose their hard-earned money because of something I posted here on this forum. I certainly am not a financial advisor, and I will just share some of my personal selections with all of you when I have determined what they will be. I recommmended my purchases to some of you in the past, but moving forward I am not going to recommend them... just share information. The advise you offered Sandman to consult with a financial advisor is good advise and I agree.

    Like you, I think fixed instruments are a great way to make money with reduced risk. As you know, if you are getting a return of 10%, then you will essentially double your initial investment in just a little over 7 years by doing absolutely nothing, and just staying the course. That's a very cool scenario, IMO. You are smart.

    Given the stock market's wild rides of the past decade, many folks have been severely burned by the market, and many innocent folks have lost their retirement accounts, or had them slashed into a fraction of their original size.

    And... I am now of the belief that the market may demonstrate periodic increased fluctuations for a very long time, possibly forever. Without some reasonable degree of steadiness or average increase over a long period of time... investors like Charlie (who just stay the course over the long run) can get seriously burned, because the timing for market entry and market withdrawal might not work in favor of the investor's actual life requirements. IOW, at the point in time that the investor needs the money to retire, for example... the market could be going through a serious downturn essentially wiping out the investor's retirement. The investor might not have the kind of time (many years perhaps) it would take for the value of his account to rebound.

    Anyway, I'm thinking that my future maximum amount of investment in the stock market might be somewhere around 25-40% of my total portfolio... with the other 60-75% in fixed instruments.

    In any event... I'll let you know which stocks I purchase next week, assuming I purchase some.

    Thanks again.

    TM
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    I don't really buy into the Financials being at major risk. I'm not running to them but I don't buy the big risk scenario there and I'm still holding my Citi. Biggest mistake I ever made, well one of the biggest was selling Apple way too early. Got back in in around 170 but I sold at 128.50 on a stupid stop loss because I was going to be out of town. Kick myself bigtime for that one because it's the one company who's fundamenmtals are fabulous and I'm a fundamentalist at heart. Their Balance Sheet is unbelievable.

    I'm now convinced the S&P runs to 1200 and the DOW to 11,000. Beyond that we need financials to roar and housing to come back. The two ae self fulfilling. As housing comes back financial earnings may roar as write-ups of assets and lowering of reserves add paper profits in on a large scale. If that is delayed we probably go into a trading range.

    Tag - all along I've liked retail and tech and I bought mutuals in both sectors. I'm not a big individual stock bettor. I'll follow certain ones I like such as Apple, bet on them and bet tthe sectors. Tech is always the way out and retailers, especially lux retailers are usually the first to bounce back and do so in a big way.

    I'm noy a seller - not for awhile.

    BTW - Apple probably headed for $300. They are making all this money mainly from US holdings. Internationally they are just starting. Stock probably runs to 325+ in 12 months or less actually.
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    Hey there... looks who's back! Len, thanks for the info. Actually, I got back in the market this morning, but in a very specific way. I purchased 21 different stocks that I believe together will average me a decent return. Some will do better than others, so I decided to purchase them as a total group... if one of them turns out to be a very bad part of the group, I'll dump it, but the idea is to look at the average return. I purchased some at heavier levels than others.

    Apple is indeed part of that group of stocks, as are other computer companies, handheld device manufacturers and cellular service providers, numerous semiconductor companies, and other tech stocks involved in the mobile internet industry. There were a couple of stocks I wanted to purchase that are not easily purchased here because they are Taiwan companies, so for now, I decided to give up on them, darn.

    The only non-tech stock I purchased today was Ford... because of the same reasons I've stated before... so obviously I didn't purchase any financials. I think there are too many issues in the financial sector that I just don't need to mess with at these lofty levels. Citi is a gamble and I agree that it could reward in a big way, but I'd rather not take the chance right now.

    Perhaps I will list all of the stocks in a later post, but I am going to start posting more about cars for a while, as our host has soooooooo patiently requested.

    Good to hear from you, as always!!

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Len, it's too bad about your Apple decision, but think of all the right choices you have made the past few years. Your general stock market projections have been perfect. Now, all we need is to have that stinking crude take a huge plunge, but that's wishful thinking on my part the way it looks.

    Pat has been getting upset again about all the market talk, so I better shut-up for a while :cry: . In terms of cars, my wife and I love our RX450h. It is a lot of fun to drive. And of course my LS460L will be 2 years years old this December and I still very much enjoy it.
  • Sandman6472Sandman6472 Coral Springs, FLMember Posts: 5,806
    Would love to get that kind of return on any investment vehicle actually. Not quiet sure where to look though. Have been very satisfied with my AT&T and plan to add a bigger position once the last of my inheritance gets to me. Plan to look at some muni bonds, general obligation ones also. Right now am seeing some good growth in my emerging market mutual funds but will keep it at the 33% of the portfolio as I think diversification is the way to go for consistent growth for any portfolio.

    So many friends at work give advice on where to allocate the $50k or so due me soon that my head is swimming. Am really a newbie with investments, as I never really had the extra $ to devote to the many financial markets. Thanks to some good investments from my dad & grandmother, I got gifted with over $100K in the last 3 years, so I'm a work in progress actually. And what a roller coaster in the global markets these past few years, that now I'm discovering that I'm really a more conservative investor than I thought I was. That's why I'm like a sponge now & listen to everybody who gives their financial advice. I don't take every suggestion & run with it, as I really am a very fiscally conservative investor. But I find it all very exciting & I'm all ears if anyone has anything to say financially speaking. It's all greatly appreciated!

    The Sandman :sick: :shades:

    2015 Audi A3 (wife) / 2015 Golf TSI (me) / 2019 Chevrolet Cruze Premier RS (daughter #1) / 2020 Hyundai Accent SE (daughter #2)

  • Sandman6472Sandman6472 Coral Springs, FLMember Posts: 5,806
    Went to see a local guy who also has a radio show which i listen to when I can. He suggested to plow everything into preferred shares of a good dividend payer like AT&T. He thought it was a better way to make $ instead of just buying the common stock. Will be going to a local bond company in Boca in the next few weeks to get their take on where I should park the $. Don't have much bond exposure so I need to get some. Still somewhat confused as I'm not a good stock picker and don't have the time to be a short term investor.
    Very confusing actually and all I know is that I need this money to grow at decent rate to help fund our retirement which could start any day now if they decide to finally disable me.

    The Sandman :confuse: :sick: :shades:

    2015 Audi A3 (wife) / 2015 Golf TSI (me) / 2019 Chevrolet Cruze Premier RS (daughter #1) / 2020 Hyundai Accent SE (daughter #2)

  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,457
    If you hurry up and buy some Ford stock, you'll get to enjoy the company watering the shares down soon to the tune of $1 billion. :)
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    Charlie,

    I didn't know this thread was here. I'll bookmark it and be back in touch. BTW - going to give some serious consideration to the S-class hybrid a year from now. As expected the LS is again flawless and I might buy it outright. Don't know but in about 9 months I'll start thinking about my next sedan. By next April or so I also have to see where we are going with the Infiniti. I'd buy it out as it's that good, but I didn't take the nav at the time I leasedt it and that's something my son needs in a car. Got him a portable one and a great one, but keeping it on the dash is no fun and he always worries someone will break into the car to steal the nav we bought.I've been driving it a lot lately (he's in first year at Rutgers and can't have a car on campus) and I really enjoy the switching off into the various types of vehicles I have and I really love all three.The MB GL really does ride like an LS or S. It's ride quality is that good!

    Re-Apple - Just a bad mistake. I was going to be away and just put in a stop-loss and it executed on a market down-turn that made absolutely no sense at that time. The mistake wasn't the stop-loss, it was not buying back in to what I knew was one of the best investments on earth. I never look at Apple (or any cash rich company) on a pure PE basis calc. I subtract the cash from the market cap and recalc the PE. Similarly I add debt to the market cap and PE calcs for debt ridden companies. At the time the market was driving Apple down the adjusted PE got ridiculouly low for such a strongly growing company with an impeccable Balance Sheet.
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    Now, all we need is to have that stinking crude take a huge plunge, but that's wishful thinking on my part the way it looks.

    Charlie, With a 10% unem,ployment rate that is really more like a 17-18% true unemployment rate and with companies and retailers cutting back on iproducts developed nventories, the price of crude is senseless. We are art or near 25 year highs in crude products and going higher still. As a currency oil also makes no sense. What good is a currency that has poor demand.
  • houdini1houdini1 Kansas City areaMember Posts: 8,206
    ljflx, I also enjoy your financial posts and have been waiting for you to find this forum. Keep those insights coming. I have had the bulk of my investments in municipal bonds for the last few years. It has worked out well so far but I am beginning to get a little antsy now. Also my son just bought a G 37 Journey Coupe. Quite a car.

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    The moderators now have zero tolerance on getting off topic. They moved all the recent economic/stock market posts from the Luxury Lounge to here. Well, if you are willing to change, I am doing so as well. Now, we need a few of the others (TagMan, Circle, etc.) to join us here to continue our economic discussions. The last time I paid attention to it, Tag had gotten in and out of the market a few times. I can't keep up with him. I sold basically everything about 2 or 3 months ago near the original high since March. My mistake was that I did not get back in on the nice dip, but I started buying stocks again about a month ago. I even bought some Apple (not much) believe it or not.

    So Len, what are your feelings on the market now? I know that you mentioned the Dow would reach 11,000 possibly by the end of this year or early next year. Do you have any better feeling about the Obama presidency? BTW, my wife and I are now in eastern MA, visiting my brother and sister in the area. We are heading to the Detroit area Tuesday and spend the rest of next week with our daughter, son-in-law and granddaughter before we get back home to IA on the 22nd.

    I am happy to hear that you are enjoying all three of your vehicles.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,457
    I think it's more that people complain to the hosts when they visit a forum to talk cars and find the discussion is hitting every topic but that.
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    The moderators now have zero tolerance on getting off topic.

    Great way to lose business. The purpose of that board originally was to be a lot more than cars and personally after awhile the car talk gets boring and redundant - just like the auto mags.Changing things up refreshes a board IMO, especially when you have a lot of high end players who are smart about a lot of subjects as that board has. I still think Edmunds made a huge mistake creating boards about everything imaginable about every vehicle and the result was everyone gave up talking about the cars themselves because they didn't even know where to post. I can't remember the last time I even went to the LS board or any of its siblings.Years ago that board was active as hell. Now I wonder if they get 25 posts in a year.

    BTW - I've had every imaginable offer from C&D to come back to subscribing. So I wrote the editor a while back and said when you start writing stories and comparos that are not predictable 5 years in advance I might come back. In the meantime I know your opinion so why keep paying for reruns. They just don't understand that they'd draw a lot more customers with balanced reporting instead of playing straight to the enthusiast. I actually told him to look how the Cayenne saved Porsche thanks to someone who realized that playing purely to the enthusists would just drive them to bankruptcy.

    I'll give you my thoughts on stocks next week when I have more time. What's your thoughts on the winter now - mild, cold, snowy? Lastly after an incredibly warm October Barrow is now frigid and the ocean is starting to freeze and it looks like they have about 10-15" of permanent snow now.

    Almost forgot to mention - I got my first speeding ticket in 11 years on the Garden State Pkwy in the GL450. I may need to consult Dewey. Further up the road I noted an SL pulled over. I may plead prejudice.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,457
    That's why we created OTC. New folks would go to one of our car forums and see nothing about cars. They didn't feel comfortable jumping in with a car question so they'd leave discouraged. Some would write the help desk - and so here we are.

    I don't follow the other discussion so I don't get the Barrow reference. I went to see a friend there a few years back one winter and really enjoyed it.
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    Barrow Alaska. Charlie's business is weather related I believe and I'm a science nut, predominantly meteorology, astronomy and cosmology though I'm a finance guy in the media information business and have my own company with two partners.

    I think the issue Charlie was complaining about and which I echo is there are certain places you make friendships and many of us know each other for years and have multiple interests and want to talk them and cars in the same place. But I understand the forums are not all things to all people but that forum was initially set up by another buddy who only occasionally posts now, Designman, so that we could do just that.

    Here's a link to Barrow, Steve, and if you went here in winter you have my admiration as a brave person. Generally the temperature is zero on a warm day from now thru sometime in early May and the windchill can often reach 40-60 below and there's no daylight in December and most of January. You'll have to click on it soon to see it in daylight as they are probably down to 3-4 hours of it by now and losing a lot of minutes each day.

    http://www.gi.alaska.edu/snowice/sea-lake-ice/barrow_webcam.html
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,457
    I lived in Anchorage for 20 years and the short winter days finally got to me, so we moved Outside ~9 years ago. We went to Barrow one March, so the sun had come back up. Still got a bit chilly. Our friend had a 2 door Focus hatch iirc, and the first time I climbed in the back I broke the seat back mechanism (she kept it plugged in outdoors all the time and it was a chore getting it running). The other odd thing I remember is that many of the cabs were CR-Vs and none of them had the spare tire mounted. Never did figure out if that was related to the cold or they just kept getting stolen.

    One of my old Anchorage friends is a day trader, mostly covered puts and calls. I don't know how he does it since the time zone is a killer. He's always trying to get me into it but my eyes glaze over.
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Len, great to hear from you! YES, I really miss a Luxury Lounge board where one could post just about anything instead of going over to different boards for every single topic. I agree with you that talking about cars constantly is very boring to me so I have not posted anything over there for quite a while. In any case, as long as you and some others (like TagMan, Circle, etc.) visit this new forum and discuss the economy or stock market, I will also join in the fun.

    As far as the winter goes, it is interesting that El Nino has shown more life lately. Obviously, if this continues to be the trend late in the fall and early winter, it will turn out to be a mild winter in the Midwest and Northeast. However, our thinking at this point is that this El Nino will not be strong enough to have a significant impact. At this point, we are still thinking that the winter will be a little colder than normal from about IL through the Northeast. The other thing that I have been watching closely is the sunspot activity. For about 10 days-2 weeks, we had a tremendous sun spot that was causing all sorts of solar flares, etc. This was by far the strongest spot in many years. Is this the start of a more active sun? I hope so, but I an obviously not certain at all. That sunspot has rotated on the other side of the sun but is now ready to re-appear as it rotates all the way around. Evidently is is still very strong according to recent evidence (prominences, flares, now starting to show up as the spot is about to make its re-appearance near the edge of the sun. We'll see what happens over the next several months.

    BTW, I don't really enjoy making seasonal forecasts. One does not look at weather maps or forecast models to make such a forecast, but is more in line with analogue years. What I enjoy much more so is making the 1-2 week forecasts.

    You better watch out or you will indeed turn into another Dewey :D .
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