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Comments
Finally... a genuine buying opportunity awaits somewhere ahead.
This is a good thing.
TM
Could this buying opportunity have been an hour or two ago when the S & P was about 20 lower at about 1041? It has since rallied sharply to only be about 3 lower at 1059. That is quite a climb from the "depths of oblivion".
Your call could have been the absolute low for a while but not sure about that. The 10% would be 9,725 on the DOW and 1,000 on the S&P. However, looking at the happenings over on the Euro zone and the P.I.G.S. (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain), the current flight from commodities are indicating we could go to down to the correction levels.
Either way, one that level is reached, I'll bet we get a 2-3% uptick quick and could resume the climb over 1,150/10,725 by March. I'll wager the net positive to earnings will be reported for Q1 since inventories are being rebuilt and retail hiring is starting to uptick.
Regards,
OW
As far as junk on the books, I'm sure there is a lot of that going around. Bets like Ford prove that every day.
Regards,
OW
Could this buying opportunity have been an hour or two ago when the S & P was about 20 lower at about 1041? It has since rallied sharply to only be about 3 lower at 1059. That is quite a climb from the "depths of oblivion".
What a difference a day makes.
I am still on the sidelines. Yes, I wait patiently... because I do not believe for a moment that we are out of the woods yet. If I am wrong and we are in a bull market, then I can always jump in. But if I am right that there is more downside ahead, I will be rewarded for my patience. I do not see that we are in a healthy bull market... way too many problems, many on a global level.
Good things come to those that wait.
And, I am waiting.
TM
Can you do something about this weather pattern I'm in? 15-25" snowstorms are becoming as common as snow flurries here.
Do you still love Obama. Now he says the trial may be back on in NYC. Can the guy make a decision and stick to it. Thank God I stayed out of the market (for the most part) during all these speeches he's making.No.1 rule in my financial handbook. He schedules a speech and I'm back into pure cash.
Of course, some clever people could use other people's irrational responses to their advantage, perhaps.
Another thing he said was that he planned on giving most of his funds away to charity, therefore he did not worry about any long term investments, as the money would be given away.....That is not a very realistic approach , as most of us hope that our descendants will have something to start life out with, if we are lucky... I guess that would be like me saying I was going to just buy an expensive car then I wouldn`t have any money left to worry about
We need some leadership.......Tony
Who's the fool? The guy who dies with a million in debts or the guy who dies with a million in the bank? Hmm
i've never understood why those who will preach endlessly about hard work will then gift fortunes to usually-ungrateful people who have likely never really worked in their lives.
I am going to stick with that philosophy , and try and accomplish those goals, and the most important goal to not be a burden on anyone....or reliant on those loved ones...The stock market and our hopes for a retirement may be linked..:) Tony
If one could make a graph, I think it would plot out like this: If happiness were the X axis and money the Y axis, they would definitely correlate until basic needs were satisfied (food shelter friends, bills paid)---after that, the Y axis would rise and rise but the X axis would tend to not follow suit in anything like a proportional ratio.
Scientists seem to think we have a "set point" for happiness that we are more or less born with---we can be thrust above the set point or below it by circumstances (an uptick with a big pile of $$$ from Dad or Mom and a downtick by a car wreck or addiction) but eventually we all come back to the set point.
Seems to correlate with real life out there....
I think the very core of capitalism encourages infinitely postponed happiness, so that you are always wanting something.
This is why it's an excellent economic system and a terrible form of government. :P
It's so cheap....
It's so cheap....
Funny you would mention Sprint.... I've been thinking about Sprint lately. At this point there would seem to be lots more upside than downside... but I still haven't decided if I'll buy any.
In spite of today's nice market performance, I am still not convinced that there aren't some snakes in the grass.
I am particularly concerned, as I continue to post, about the political interference that I have been witnessing a lot lately. As much as I like much of Obama's idealism, I am deeply concerned that some of the tax policies on the agenda will become punitive... and I hate punitive taxation... it is absolutely idiotic and counter-productive.
The consumer is the engine of this economy, and the consumer needs to be empowered... not restricted and not punished by excessive taxation.
If the government wants to make more money, then instead of taxing the successful population to death, it would be so much better to ease up on the taxes and restrictions... the money will then flow through the economy and be a stimulus of its own right, as increased consumer spending would increase the demand for goods and services, resulting in an increase in needed workers, meaning more jobs... and more employment always results in greater revenue for the goverment.
In other words, it is better to take a small amount of taxes from a huge number of working people, than to take a huge amount of taxes from a small number of working people. I don't think Obama understands this. And, it is totally insane to create taxation that punishes success. From a taxation perspective, success should be rewarded in the United States of America... and then the entire country would reap the benefits. But, unfortunately that isn't the way it's going...
TM
On top of that, the U.S. Senate is broken...it's so non-functional it almost begs for a revision of the Constitution. The House, on the other hand, seems to work much better for both sides.
Let's face it...it's going to take a while to dig out of debt. We could pull out of Japan, we could cut the Pentagon's budget, we could cut Medicare to the bone, ----but we won't----so we're stuck.
At least Obama's current budget is actually a bit lower than the one Bush left us with. You don't hear much about that. Not to say he is any less profligate with $$$ than Bush, but he's no worse that's for sure.
It's the people that will pull the economy out....and the freedom we have to do it. :shades:
Regards,
OW
True, there is a definite economic shift to Asia, but whether this is permanent or ephemeral, who knows? I don't think their system is fundamentally any more sound (or perhaps just as unsound) as ours.
If Asia suddenly went "green" in a massive collective way, and we didn't, then I'd be worried, since we are going to need all that tech in the future. I'd hate to have to buy it from them.
Hell no! I do not believe in that baloney for a split second.
To avoid punishing success, it means that there should not be indexed tax rates. It means that there should be better incentives for success and productivity, as well as investment in growth. Policies should promote education, vocational training, research and development, investment in productivity, infrastructure improvements and modernization... it is stupid to penalize growth and productivity by taxing that same productivity of machinery and labor.
It is also stupid to take away, by punitive taxation, large percentages of profits from businesses and individuals that could otherwise be used to expand and become even more productive, thus creating more jobs and revenue for the government.
It is a cycle. The cycle is compromised and handcapped when there is too much taxation and restrictive policies.
A flat tax, for example would essentially pull in the exact measured amount of revenue to the government linked to the exact amount of income across the board. It would not place an increased tax burden upon those that are successful, yet it would not let then off the hook of paying their equal and fare share.
Just think about this... if the government was stupid enough to index the sales tax based upon the price of items consumers purchase, wouldn't that create an incentive to purchase less expensive items and therefore slow down the amount of money being spent, and slow down the economy? It would be BACKWARDS thinking... counter-productive! On the same token, when the governement penalizes people and companies for MAKING more money... that is a BACKWARDS incentive!... just plain stupid. The population can easily generate MORE tax revenue by having a flat tax than by an indexed one... and the punitive nature of the index would be removed.
Corporations should be REWARDED for their growth, not punished for it. The more businesses grow and prosper, the more people are employed. These corporations don't have to be huge either. Small businesses are the backbone of American business, and they should not be constantly struggling to pay all the taxes that are imposed upon them.
I know first-hand, as a small businessman, how incredibly punitive the goverment is in taxing everything possible within the business. For example, if I purchase and install a piece of machinery that could be productive, the government imposes property taxes on that machinery every single year. That is just plain stupid.
With a flat tax, the more money people and companies make, the more the government would get anyway. A 10% tax on $100,000 income gives the government $10,000 in revenue, while a 10% tax on $1,000,000 gives the government $100,000 in revenue... so what's the problem with that?
If anything, there should be REWARDS for making more money. The more money that is generated in the economy, the better off our country is... plain and simple.
If the flat tax isn't your cup of tea, then perhpas there should be an index that allows success to be rewarded by having the tax rates go DOWN as more money is made and investments are made in productivity. That's a wild idea! It would give such a huge incentive for people to get to work, make as much money as possible, and be as productive as possible. For the record, I'm not actually suggesting a reversed index, but I do think it nicely illustrates that the current punishment/reward policies are absolutely backwards and insane.
I know it sounds ridiculous to those typical taxaholics in our government, but they will never understand that it is better to reward success, investment, and productivity than to punish it. If success and productivity is what they are truly after, then that is what should be rewarded... it's that simple.
TM
Look at the Heath Care issue....we do not have the best because it isn't balanced. The government can never make that happen without the private sector making tough choices to make the system the best in the world. The USA is number 37 in terms of heath care ranking. Greed, again, will continue until the pendulum bounces across the backs of the angry citizens in this bad economy. Look out below...
Regards,
OW
It's been very obvious that you and I have strong differences of opinion about Obama. Yes, I do like him. Is he perfect? No one is. Did you see his interview on CBS an hour or so prior to the Super Bowl? I thought he was terrific. I still strongly believe that we as a nation desperately need a new healthcare plan that covers basically all Americans. According to what Obama said on the interview with Katie Couric, a new healthcare plan would reduce the deficit by $2 trillion. I think that the opposition to a new healthcare plan has been spreading incredible scare tactics and propaganda to the American people. It is very obvious to me that most of those opposing a new plan are just trying everything in their power to discredit Obama and are only concerned about their own pockets and are at the same time protecting the corrupt, giant insurance industry.
It is really a crying shame that the Democratic candidate in MA was such a dippo and lost. MA was not really voting against a healthcare plan (they have one in MA and the overwhelming majority love it) as much as they were voting against the Democratic candidate because they feel frustration that the economy has not recovered at a faster pace. What do they want, miracles? In any case, this healthcare issue is not going to go away. I also believe that over the next 2-3 years Obama will do a lot of good things and will be re-elected for a second term.
Now as far as the stock market is concerned, this is probably just what the doctor ordered. A good correction was needed. It really feels to me as if we are close to the end of the correction based on the way the market has been acting this past week. I strongly believe that the market has been using the Greek debt (those dumb Greeks ;-)...I am one so I can say this) /Euro problem as an excuse to correct. When it is all said and done, this problem will be solved fairly soon and it will be forgotten. Our stock market will start to take off in the very near future and I will take advantage of it. I have been nibbling at some stocks the past week or so. I realize I said some weeks ago that the Dow would soon reach 11,000. I still do believe this but it is going to take a bit longer than I previously thought.
Obama has had a super majority in congress for the past year. It is his own party that won't vote for this 2700 page monstrosity. Some form of health care plan will probably be passed but it will be a pyrrhic victory.
The only good thing that would come from passing this bill is that it would insure that the republicans would take over the House and Senate this fall and leave Obama as a lame duck president during his last 2 years.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
AFAIC, it does not matter who is the President as long as good is created. There is no way everyone gets what they want at the end of the day when you are President...you are still one feather in the wind, like it or not.
Regards,
OW
The reason we're not getting anything done is that the original system of checks and balances is gradually getting out of whack, decade by decade; for one thing the Supreme Court needs a serious overhaul in conception, and a weakening of their power IMPO.
Economically, I continue to wonder if Nixon's taking us off the Gold Standard was one of the biggest mistakes ever engineered by a US President.
Economic Crisis in Greece
What's interesting to me is how many many times we have seen all these "smartest guys in the room", be they men or women, in their expensive suits, gathered around highly polished walnut tables, all acting LIKE THEY KNOW WHAT THEY ARE DOING. :surprise:
The US welcomes immigrants (~25% of whom start small businesses) and we're heading for a youngish population of 450 million.
What's not to like?
I think that a healthy and well-educated population is the essential key to survival of a democracy.
I do not claim to know the details about how this would work, but this is based on the data from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) which is non partisan. The President does not pull numbers like this out of his you know what.
What do you mean by "his own party won't vote for this 2700 page monstrosity"? This bill was going to pass if it were not for the MA election a few weeks ago.
"The only good thing that would come from passing this bill is that it would insure that the republicans would take over the House and Senate this fall and leave Obama as a lame duck president during his last 2 years."
I would not jump to conclusions at this point. The American people will see though the incredible garbage and propaganda the conservative Republicans have been spewing and will continue to do so to discredit the President.
Maybe you guys who want to talk politics can take it to Forget Bushisms, Biden Gaffes, We have Obama blunders?
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
It is funny to see their one-world-government economic ideal fall victim to debt, though The dollar has really gained on the Euro, and to keep things alive the new USSR style creation is begging Germans to consume more to keep the thing afloat. Brilliant.
Haven't been reading about Swiss minarets or Migration Watch in the UK or the French burqa ban eh?
Oh yeah, the birth rate in Russia is falling too.
I just see more opportunity for stock growth in the US that most of the rest of the world.
At the end of the day, they know about as much as you and I!
Regards,
OW
There probably is going to be more growth in NA than in the EUSSR, I agree...they are doing themselves in.
Hey, let's combine economics, politics and the stock market and put all political offices on eBay!!!
You are. I can assure that to you.
Regards,
Jose
Anybody like CNK? Cramer does, and Schwab does.
The UK and Sweden in particular are really as liberal as it comes, especially concerning the context of the discussion, immigration. The Swiss probably have the strongest backbone in Europe now that Germany continues to be guilted into submission. I think gigantic swaths of Italy would become communist if allowed...and the French...nobody can figure them out
I hope the discord will eventually destroy the EU, which is as close to a Soviet ideal as the more developed half of Europe has seen.
The average ebay bidder is probably no less competent than the average politico, and probably more honest than him or the average CEO. :lemon: ...and the average election is pretty much just an auction anyway...not a bad parallel.
Ebay: All proceeds of the auction go to the American people (taxpayers only) in a refund check. I figure starting bid on a House seat is $1 million, Senate seat maybe...what...$2.5? Excellent benefits, free health care superpackage, nice lunches, plenty of vacation time, great haircuts, free travel, discount lunches, interns.....oops, sorry.
Socialism is an economic system, it's not a political system. USSR was definitely a political system----not a good comparison at all IMO. Much of what goes on in the USA could easily fit into economic socialism, and has been this way for 75 years or more.
All modern economies are highly regulated, subsidized and managed, are they not?. It's more a matter of degree than "type" IMO.
When is going to be a buy?
Ford is in hock up to their gills but their stock has blown the doors off in the last few months.
I'm not sure what your reference to CNK or Cramer meant. I admit my ignorance on many things of US life or history. I refrain myself to write in this forums about politics, religion or other delicate matters in order to avoid saying opinions that can be, or taken as being European 'cliches' on the USA; or as if I were to patronize on it from an 'European' point of view.
What I have, or better I must have to tell now is that although there is not Miranda rights under this name in Spain (after all, Miranda was a US lawman, if I'm not wrong), there are full democratic rights protected by laws over here. If you are busted in Spain, you will be read of your rights on not to declare anything against yourself, or to remain silent before the police or the judge; you will be able to get from the first moment a lawyer of your choice or a public one. You will not remain arrested for more than three days before being released or presented to the judge—except if you are a suspect of terrorism, in which case your arrest could be continued for a week, which is far more lesser time that that allowed in the UK, for instance. In any case you will be guaranteed to have a trial in fixed time. If anything of these rights is not fulfilled, then you would also be left free by the judge because of the so called 'defecto de forma'. By no means you will be sentenced to death penalty even if your crime is the most horrendous one against human life.
By the same token, I become irritated, even if in silence, when I read opinions which truly are cliches on Europe or in particular on my Country, Spain. This is unfortunately very often the case when some northern-legacy people loosely speak on South European Countries, which also have a lot of legacy and human heritage. :mad:
Regards,
Jose
PS. In other kind of matters, Social Security with Health Care Public insurance was settled one Century ago by Otto von Bismarck, then Chancellor of Germany. He did this just to assure that working class people could work in better condition in German industry. Chancellor Bismarck was not leftist nor socialist, by the way .