Real-World Trade-In Values

luckyhunter

explorerx4 said:

I don't anyone predicted used sedan values would drop 15% over the last year.

You don't agree with who?

explorerx4

I guess there is just a glut of low mileage used sedans.

xwesx

explorerx4 said:

I guess there is just a glut of low mileage used sedans.

They are truly falling out of style with the buying public, concurrent with the proliferation of crossovers. I think it is highly realistic that you would lose 60% or more in value on a five-model-year-old Ford sedan (from MSRP), even if it is a perfect, low-mileage example.

nyccarguy

explorerx4 said:

I don't think anyone predicted used sedan values would drop 15% over the last year.

Used vehicles as a whole took a big nose dive somewhere in that neighborhood. Once used vehicle values begin to drop, lease residuals will follow. Leases will get more expensive and new car sales will fall.

luckyhunter

Well this is not what I wanted to hear. I'm really hoping I don't take a bath on this car. I thought I was being smart buying it how I did.

andres3

Yeah, if you want maximum resale value at 3 years, Ford isn't the best bet.

luckyhunter

Well I put $12,500 down on it and got it for $21k out the door. Paying $200 a month will get me out in about 3 years from now with 1.59% financing. Figured I did everything right to maintain my equity in the car.

Mr_Shiftright

I'd give my two cents that it will fall into a bracket around $10K-11K max, given the current trends.

explorerx4

@luckyhunter,
You have a different philosophy about financing than I do.
Look at my sig, we have more in common than you probably think.

luckyhunter

explorerx4 said:

@luckyhunter,
You have a different philosophy about financing than I do.
Look at my sig, we have more in common than you probably think.

Did you finance or lease?

explorerx4

I financed a new 2017 @0% for 5 years, but I could have paid cash.
Considering how little I have driven it, I should have skipped buying anything.
I prefer to have cash flexibility with interest rates so low.

luckyhunter

Thats basically what I did. I figure for 1.59% I did well for my first car. Just reallllyyyy want to at least maintain my equity in my car when I am ready for a new one. I hate losing money on this. Maybe I will lease my next one depending on how this turns out.

xwesx

luckyhunter said:

Well I put $12,500 down on it and got it for $21k out the door. Paying $200 a month will get me out in about 3 years from now with 1.59% financing. Figured I did everything right to maintain my equity in the car.

You certainly do have equity in the car, and you will keep equity in it, too. But, it won't be the $12,500 you put in up front! Vehicles are a depreciating asset, so you cannot expect to get your money back out of it. Putting money down on it means lower payments in the future, but, as Explorer mentioned, there isn't necessarily a big advantage in doing so right now given low interest rates, and it doesn't (or shouldn't) make a lick of difference in terms of the price you pay "out the door."

Compared to buying the same car new, your cost of ownership will be lower because you didn't eat the initial depreciation.

xwesx

luckyhunter said:

Thats basically what I did. I figure for 1.59% I did well for my first car. Just reallllyyyy want to at least maintain my equity in my car when I am ready for a new one. I hate losing money on this. Maybe I will lease my next one depending on how this turns out.

I wouldn't worry about it! Enjoy the car for what it is.

At the end of your ownership, evaluate your TCO (total cost of ownership) and use that knowledge to inform your next choice. Many sites, including Edmunds, also have TCO tools that will give you an expectation about vehicle ownership costs, and I'll tell you now that they are not zero....!

luckyhunter

Thats what I plan to do. I just thought I would be able to "use" the car for 3-3.5 years and have it only cost me the roughly $8000 that I financed.

Mr_Shiftright

Here's a 2014 but the miles are high---and it's priced at $9800 on the nose-- so figure 5-10% haggle.

Hopefully you'll have fewer miles than that and the car will be in top shape.

luckyhunter

I take excellent care of my car. Its my baby.

stickguy

cars depreciate. fact of life. In 3 years, you will have it paid off, so it will all be equity at that point. So, some quick mental math here:

you paid 20K? Not bad at all. Say it is worth 10K after 3 years. meaning 10K depreciation too. That is about $275/month, for 40K miles. look at it another way, and that is a respectable lease payment for a car like that, but you would have gotten few miles. And that value could easily be on the low side. Or just keep it for another 2 years, and your annual costs will drop, because it likely will depreciate less in year 4 and 5.

berk483

I have a 2015 Jeep Wrangler Unlimited Rubicon with 45,000 miles. Vehicle is in near perfect condition inside and out. Has leather, navigation, alpine sound system, hard top with privacy glass. Driven in the North East US. What do you think the trade-in would be. I think I'll swing by a CarMax as well.

Automatic

Tank Green with Black Hard Top - I have the premium soft top as well. Doesn't need tires but probably rear brakes soon.

Thanks

qbrozen

About $32k trade.

if carmax really likes it, they might offer $33k-$33.5k. Miles are on the high side though.

andres3

luckyhunter said:

Thats what I plan to do. I just thought I would be able to "use" the car for 3-3.5 years and have it only cost me the roughly $8000 that I financed.

If you negotiate well you should be able to score a brand new mid-size sedan lease for about a $10,000 rental over 3 years and 36,000 miles. At least that's how I look at monthly lease payments; just the bottom line rental cost.

So if you end up having only spent $8,000 with even more miles, you did well! Used cars should be able to beat new cars in costs/mile driven; assuming they are not an unreliable pile of crap.

maibad31

Hi,

What could I expect for trade in value
2015 Golf SE 4 doors with Lighting package, no issues with 25K miles

Thanks

Michaell

maibad31 said:

Hi,

What could I expect for trade in value
2015 Golf SE 4 doors with Lighting package, no issues with 25K miles

Thanks

Color - inside and out?

Location?

luckyhunter

andres3 said:

luckyhunter said:

Thats what I plan to do. I just thought I would be able to "use" the car for 3-3.5 years and have it only cost me the roughly $8000 that I financed.

If you negotiate well you should be able to score a brand new mid-size sedan lease for about a $10,000 rental over 3 years and 36,000 miles. At least that's how I look at monthly lease payments; just the bottom line rental cost.

So if you end up having only spent $8,000 with even more miles, you did well! Used cars should be able to beat new cars in costs/mile driven; assuming they are not an unreliable pile of crap.

But that is assuming I can trade it in and get the $12,500 back that I used for a down payment....which most people here believe isn't going to happen. So say I get $10k for it, now my actual cost is $10k. And at this point I am playing with fire to break even against a lease. This doesn't factor in any interest I lose from having the $12,500 tied up instead of sitting in the stock market/bank account etc.

Mr_Shiftright

Wow. 22.5K per year in a Wrangler. This is one tough dude!

andres3

luckyhunter said:

andres3 said:

luckyhunter said:

Thats what I plan to do. I just thought I would be able to "use" the car for 3-3.5 years and have it only cost me the roughly $8000 that I financed.

If you negotiate well you should be able to score a brand new mid-size sedan lease for about a $10,000 rental over 3 years and 36,000 miles. At least that's how I look at monthly lease payments; just the bottom line rental cost.

So if you end up having only spent $8,000 with even more miles, you did well! Used cars should be able to beat new cars in costs/mile driven; assuming they are not an unreliable pile of crap.

But that is assuming I can trade it in and get the $12,500 back that I used for a down payment....which most people here believe isn't going to happen. So say I get $10k for it, now my actual cost is $10k. And at this point I am playing with fire to break even against a lease. This doesn't factor in any interest I lose from having the $12,500 tied up instead of sitting in the stock market/bank account etc.

Yeah, hard to beat a subsidized lease unless you buy an "old" used car. Getting a recent model domestic car will still net you a ton of depreciation without the help of a subsidized residual value.

I guarantee my Kia won't be worth its residual value when I'm done with it.

nyccarguy

berk483 said:

I have a 2015 Jeep Wrangler Unlimited Rubicon with 45,000 miles. Vehicle is in near perfect condition inside and out. Has leather, navigation, alpine sound system, hard top with privacy glass. Driven in the North East US. What do you think the trade-in would be. I think I'll swing by a CarMax as well.

Automatic

Tank Green with Black Hard Top - I have the premium soft top as well. Doesn't need tires but probably rear brakes soon.

Thanks

That's an impressive amount of seat time in a Wrangler Rubicon. What are you looking to get into? How come you are trading it in?

stickguy

I am 2 months from the end, and 16k miles under on the sonata, and probably worth well less than residual. Considering I could get a new 2017 for $8-9k off, not surprising

Michaell

stickguy said:

I am 2 months from the end, and 16k miles under on the sonata, and probably worth well less than residual. Considering I could get a new 2017 for $8-9k off, not surprising

Here's a sobering thought ... the residual value on my Jetta is $10,880. I had it appraised at a VW dealer a few months back, and they offered $12K. I still have 2 years of depreciation to go, and I too am way under miles (5600 against a touch over 12K allowed, so far).

stickguy

Our Jetta residual is 12.5-13k I think. I won't be having the princess buy it out I don't think.

Michaell

stickguy said:

Our Jetta residual is 12.5-13k I think. I won't be having the princess buy it out I don't think.

Even with cars in this price bracket, the residual values seem to be, ahem, overinflated a bit to help move inventory.

My car will likely have under 20K on the odometer at lease end, but I can't make a compelling argument to buy it out. 36 / 48 month payments on the used car will still likely be more than the lease payments on a new one, with better tech all around.

stickguy

I think my sonata is in the $19k range. Like you said, can get something I would rather have for that much.

breld

Hey Q - trying to get a feel for fair pricing on 2014-2015 BMW X5s.

Here's one my wife likes:

2014 CPO X5

Or to summarize,

In CO

2014 X5 xdrive35i
30,600 miles
Gray over ivory interior
Premium Package
Cold Weather
Luxury Line trim
3rd row
Navigation
Drivers Assistance Pkg (head-up display, back-up camera)

So, well loaded and CPO.

Auction? Fair Retail? CPO adds a couple grand or so, right?

jpp75

breld said:

Hey Q - trying to get a feel for fair pricing on 2014-2015 BMW X5s.

Here's one my wife likes:

2014 CPO X5

Or to summarize,

In CO

2014 X5 xdrive35i
30,600 miles
Gray over ivory interior
Premium Package
Cold Weather
Luxury Line trim
3rd row
Navigation
Drivers Assistance Pkg (head-up display, back-up camera)

So, well loaded and CPO.

Auction? Fair Retail? CPO adds a couple grand or so, right?

Let me know if you need me to do a preview of it, happy to drive up there during or after work one day and give it a look for you.

stickguy

nice looking buggy.

breld

jpp5862 said:

breld said:

Hey Q - trying to get a feel for fair pricing on 2014-2015 BMW X5s.

Here's one my wife likes:

2014 CPO X5

Or to summarize,

In CO

2014 X5 xdrive35i
30,600 miles
Gray over ivory interior
Premium Package
Cold Weather
Luxury Line trim
3rd row
Navigation
Drivers Assistance Pkg (head-up display, back-up camera)

So, well loaded and CPO.

Auction? Fair Retail? CPO adds a couple grand or so, right?

Let me know if you need me to do a preview of it, happy to drive up there during or after work one day and give it a look for you.

Thanks! May take you up on that. And/or we'll let you know when we're going up and you (and @michaell if he's up for a trip all the way up to Boulder) can join us!

qbrozen

Auction value is between $33k and $34k. IMHO, $39k would be the moon for CPO.

Gonna trade the Type R for it? ;b

stickguy

this looks to be equipped about the same as that gray one. I like the color combo here, especially that mocha interior. Still overpriced since not a CPO.

http://www.eimports4less.com/detail-2014-bmw-x5-certified_x5_xdrive35i_luxury_line_awd_7_passenger-used-16630370.html

breld

qbrozen said:

Auction value is between $33k and $34k. IMHO, $39k would be the moon for CPO.

Gonna trade the Type R for it? ;b

Thanks for the quick response - thought their $43k price seemed a bit high, though unfortunately, it's pretty consistent with those listed at other CO dealers.

@stickguy - we like the Mocha interior too, though the wife is pretty set on getting the sport seats.

Michaell

breld said:

jpp5862 said:

breld said:

Hey Q - trying to get a feel for fair pricing on 2014-2015 BMW X5s.

Here's one my wife likes:

2014 CPO X5

Or to summarize,

In CO

2014 X5 xdrive35i
30,600 miles
Gray over ivory interior
Premium Package
Cold Weather
Luxury Line trim
3rd row
Navigation
Drivers Assistance Pkg (head-up display, back-up camera)

So, well loaded and CPO.

Auction? Fair Retail? CPO adds a couple grand or so, right?

Let me know if you need me to do a preview of it, happy to drive up there during or after work one day and give it a look for you.

Thanks! May take you up on that. And/or we'll let you know when we're going up and you (and @michaell if he's up for a trip all the way up to Boulder) can join us!

I can't tell you the last time I was in Boulder .... I like the color combo of that linked car.

butchbr73

Good morning Q (and guys)... back to the F150 shopping. For giggles, I've found a 2015 F150 Platinum Supercrew 3.5Eco 4x4 5.5ft bed
26k miles
black on black
tech package
fx4 package
max tow package
moonroof
park assist
East Tennessee. Supposedly very clean, good condition, local trade for new Raptor a few months ago.
They have it listed at $45,5.. one quick call to ask a couple of questions, they've dropped to $44. You still thinking $40'ish at auction or have they dropped a little.. Edmunds "car appraisal" tool pegged at ~$38k trade in. Wondering how realistic it is to get them to $41'ish range.

qbrozen

butchbr73 said:

Good morning Q (and guys)... back to the F150 shopping. For giggles, I've found a 2015 F150 Platinum Supercrew 3.5Eco 4x4 5.5ft bed 26k miles black on black tech package fx4 package max tow package moonroof park assist East Tennessee. Supposedly very clean, good condition, local trade for new Raptor a few months ago. They have it listed at $45,5.. one quick call to ask a couple of questions, they've dropped to $44. You still thinking $40'ish at auction or have they dropped a little.. Edmunds "car appraisal" tool pegged at ~$38k trade in. Wondering how realistic it is to get them to $41'ish range.

That is coming up at a tick over $41k at auction. IIRC, we were ballparking v8s and EBs before and I said 40-41k. 

maibad31

Michaell said:

maibad31 said:

Hi,

What could I expect for trade in value
2015 Golf SE 4 doors with Lighting package, no issues with 25K miles

Thanks

Color - inside and out?

Location?

Silver exterior, black interior
Houston, TX

breld

qbrozen said:

Auction value is between $33k and $34k. IMHO, $39k would be the moon for CPO.

Gonna trade the Type R for it? ;b

Okay, just to extrapolate from the values on this 2014, so I don't bug you on every X5 we look at, I'm guessing a 2015 with comparable mileage is a couple grand more, and then various equipment levels can have a mild impact, but nothing too significant?  And does the diesel carry a premium over the "35i" engine?  Dealers seem to price them as such, but could just be that they're more rare. 

butchbr73

cool, thanks Q. Yes, you had ballpark'd $40-41k. Listed at $45,5, quick call to confirm a few things had them at $44k without me really making an offer. They must be sitting pretty in it, its at a Ford dealer so I'm assuming they have a real good feel for what these are worth. I don't have a trade-in, its a straight up buy so there is no fuzziness in the math. Sounds like $41-42k would be a screaming deal, wonder how far down I could get them if I tried?

qbrozen

maibad31 said:

Hi, What could I expect for trade in value 2015 Golf SE 4 doors with Lighting package, no issues with 25K miles Thanks

Color - inside and out? Location?

Silver exterior, black interior Houston, TX

Between 11-12k if an automatic

qbrozen

breld said:

qbrozen said:

Auction value is between $33k and $34k. IMHO, $39k would be the moon for CPO.

Gonna trade the Type R for it? ;b

Okay, just to extrapolate from the values on this 2014, so I don't bug you on every X5 we look at, I'm guessing a 2015 with comparable mileage is a couple grand more, and then various equipment levels can have a mild impact, but nothing too significant?  And does the diesel carry a premium over the "35i" engine?  Dealers seem to price them as such, but could just be that they're more rare. 

A 2015 is about $35k for 30k miles, and diesel adds $3k.

qbrozen

butchbr73 said:

cool, thanks Q. Yes, you had ballpark'd $40-41k. Listed at $45,5, quick call to confirm a few things had them at $44k without me really making an offer. They must be sitting pretty in it, its at a Ford dealer so I'm assuming they have a real good feel for what these are worth. I don't have a trade-in, its a straight up buy so there is no fuzziness in the math. Sounds like $41-42k would be a screaming deal, wonder how far down I could get them if I tried?

Have you priced out a new 2017 with all incentives and rebates?

butchbr73

qbrozen said:

butchbr73 said:

cool, thanks Q. Yes, you had ballpark'd $40-41k. Listed at $45,5, quick call to confirm a few things had them at $44k without me really making an offer. They must be sitting pretty in it, its at a Ford dealer so I'm assuming they have a real good feel for what these are worth. I don't have a trade-in, its a straight up buy so there is no fuzziness in the math. Sounds like $41-42k would be a screaming deal, wonder how far down I could get them if I tried?

Have you priced out a new 2017 with all incentives and rebates?

yes sir!... looked at the Plat... probably in the $56-57k range from a $64/65k MSRP. You'll see some Atl dealers showing $11k off MSRP, but thats w/ all incentives included. Since I don't have a trade in, I'll miss out on some incentives. The Lariat w/ the some options isn't too far behind that. And honestly, thats a little more than I want to spend, was hoping to stay around the $40 mark, to low $40's tops w/ a somewhat low mileage, good condition used and/or maybe get them to throw an ext warranty my way to cover beyond the 36.

As a generality statement, when a car/truck is right at or slightly above the 36k warranty, what does that do to a price? Let's say the same truck had 37k miles.... a grand less? I see the miles before a warranty expires as valuable to get any of the kinks out of the way on a used car... not sure how that translates to value on the sales side.

As always, appreciate your help.

qbrozen

it doesn't translate from what I have seen. Miles is miles.

So just taking a stab at building one and went with a 2017 supercrew Lariat 2.7L 4x4 with 502A package (nav, remote start, moonroof, etc, etc) for a total MSRP of $53,025. Incentives seem lower now than when I got mine, but looks like you could get that for $47k with some pushing (truecar shows a market average of $47,300). Not sure what more the platinum adds that is important to you. Just something to consider. Even if you got a great deal at $43k on the used one, $4k more for brand new and 2 years younger seems like a good move, IMHO.