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Is Tesla A Game Changer?

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  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    This master plan seems awfully ambitious, from a financing standpoint, for a company that's still hemorrhaging cash...

    http://www.autonews.com/article/20160721/OEM05/160729955/musks-new-tesla-master-plan-comes-with-big-price-tag
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Well you'd think stockholders and future investors would be upset with this, but...since it is totally batty why the stock is at $220 anyway, I suppose we can just throw all rational thinking to the wind here. ...
  • andres3andres3 Member Posts: 13,928

    Speaking of Neons, I saw a first generation one today, the second sighting of one in a week. They're not rare yet, but it's been a while since I'd seen one before last week. If Neons were so troublesome you'd think they'd all be scrapped by now. It's hard to justify spending the money to repair one.

    There are still plenty of second generation ones around. Are these more reliable than the first generation, or are they still around because they're newer and less miled up?

    Where are you from? In CA a Neon of any vintage is a rare sight. When you do see one, it is in such bad shape it's laughable.
    '18 Porsche Macan Turbo, '16 Audi TTS, Wife's '19 VW Tiguan SEL 4-Motion
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450

    Well you'd think stockholders and future investors would be upset with this, but...since it is totally batty why the stock is at $220 anyway, I suppose we can just throw all rational thinking to the wind here. ...

    Someday all the promises of future profits will have to materialize, or the stock will tank. How long can a company with $1 billion a quarter sales afford to lose $250 million a quarter.

    https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:TSLA&fstype=ii&ei=xU2SV_nXKYW4mAGwhYi4CQ
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    andres3 said:

    Speaking of Neons, I saw a first generation one today, the second sighting of one in a week. They're not rare yet, but it's been a while since I'd seen one before last week. If Neons were so troublesome you'd think they'd all be scrapped by now. It's hard to justify spending the money to repair one.

    There are still plenty of second generation ones around. Are these more reliable than the first generation, or are they still around because they're newer and less miled up?

    Where are you from? In CA a Neon of any vintage is a rare sight. When you do see one, it is in such bad shape it's laughable.
    I live in Maryland. Second generation Neons aren't a rare sight here, and there are still a lot of PT Cruisers around. In fact, someone owns a PT convertible about a half mile from my house.

    Those PT convertibles never made sense to me, since they don't portray the retro look well, and they certainly aren't sporty. They're just weird, in my opinion.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    Not that many affordable four seater convertibles out there.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Was reading the Car & Driver longterm testing on the Tesla P85. Some interesting things. As we have speculated in the past, very cold weather decreases range considerably. ( a 130 mile trip took away 190 miles of range). Also the touch screen lags badly in cold weather, and cannot respond to a gloved hand (for what that's worth).

    The point I'm driving at here (heh, heh) is that a Tesla is still, for most buyers living in areas with any kind of winter, a 2nd car.
  • berriberri Member Posts: 10,165
    I suspect extreme heat and humidity may also come into play on electric vehicles. At a minimum, battery performance and endurance. But heat and humidity is no friend to many electronic components, as well as wiring over time.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    I would imagine any flooding would be an immediate total.
  • berriberri Member Posts: 10,165
    Maybe this guy is a genius in science, but there are a lot of smart people in Detroit, Asia and Germany, and they are not placing all of their money on EV. Investors need to remember, it can be a fine line between placing a bet and speculating.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    There have been plenty of geniuses that ran themselves off the rails or relentlessly pursued things to a dead end. Ironically. Mr. Tesla himself was one of them.

    Look at, for instance, all the engineering genius that went into Chrysler's turbine car.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450

    I would imagine any flooding would be an immediate total.

    You mean I cannot cross a river with my Tesla X???


  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Yes you can, but it wouldn't be a good idea. :)
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    edited July 2016
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2016-05-13/29-why-tesla-scares-german-carmakers

    The three major German automakers will introduce many new EVs, but they appear to be 2-3 years behind Tesla in their efforts. I don't think that lag time will matter much in the long run because while EVs will remain a niche market for some time, albeit a growing one, the German (and American and Asian) carmakers have powertrain diversification. Tesla , on the other hand, is betting all its marbles on EVs.

    That said, Tesla has been a wake up call for the world's automakers.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Look out Tesla, Porsche is getting into the game.

    The Porsche Mission E is an obvious rival to Tesla Motors Inc’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) Model S, as well as other electric vehicles. It will be lighter than the Model S and will be sporting an electric engine with more than 600 horsepower.

    http://investorplace.com/2016/07/porsche-tesla-mission-e/#.V5fzEbgrKhc
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    It's good to be "first out of the gate" but you have to keep up the pace---there are thundering hooves right behind you....
  • andres3andres3 Member Posts: 13,928

    It's good to be "first out of the gate" but you have to keep up the pace---there are thundering hooves right behind you....

    Don't know how good being first is when Consumer Reports bashes and blasts you a year or two in for having terrible reliability.
    '18 Porsche Macan Turbo, '16 Audi TTS, Wife's '19 VW Tiguan SEL 4-Motion
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    But think of the praise CR lavished on them..it put them so far ahead in the EV race that they could have lain down for a year and still be #1.

    Not any more, though.

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    The three major German automakers will introduce many new EVs, but they appear to be 2-3 years behind Tesla in their efforts. I don't think that lag time will matter much in the long run because while EVs will remain a niche market for some time, albeit a growing one, the German (and American and Asian) carmakers have powertrain diversification. Tesla
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Those are some serious specifications! 120 mile range and capacity of 26 metric tons. Wow. And commercial enterprises are not afraid to spend big bucks on trucks.

    This could be a shrewd move since there's a lot of noise about big rig pollution in metro areas. And a lot of noise-noise, literally.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited August 2016
    "Some of the features included in the Concept 26 are a steering wheel that retracts, a seat that reclines, and a console that can transform into a large screen.

    While Volvo won't roll out all of these features in its first self-driving car, Coelingh said none of the things included in Concept 26 are that far-fetched.

    "These are really simple things. Things like getting more space by moving the seat backwards, moving the steering wheel in, you can do all of these things with little effort," Coelingh said.

    "Concept 26 is pretty realistic in what you can do. It’s not like you have a swiveling chair or putting in a dining table. It’s still a car interior, but it provides you with a little bit extra."

    Volvo is quietly becoming a tech superpower (businessinsider.com)
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Well yeah, we'll see how all this plays out in real life.

    Lots of hype going into autonomous driving.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    edited August 2016
    Volvo is spending its Chinese parent's money to try and get back in the game. Even hope to open up shop in the USA where they are faltering worse than VW. Bring a diesel SUV and I will take a look. If I can get past the goofy tail lights on the XC90.

    Volvo will build its first car plant in the U.S., hoping to reverse a decline in sales in the world's second biggest auto market.
    The Chinese-owned car maker said Monday it would invest $500 million to build the plant.
    Volvo (VOLVY) sold nearly half a million cars in 100 countries last year, up 8.9% compared to 2013. That growth was driven by strong sales in China and Europe.
    But U.S. sales fell 8% last year to 56,000. That's less than half the volume Volvo sold in the U.S. just a decade ago.

    http://money.cnn.com/2015/03/30/news/companies/volvo-new-factory-u-s-/
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    "Ford's Volvo Cars unit in 2008 ...cascaded to just 73,102 units for the year."

    So, really, not doing too badly.

    The next question is which state will sell out their citizens giving massive tax breaks to the Swedes Chinese. ;)
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    edited August 2016
    Tesla to Offer Model S with 315 mile range

    Impressive, but not for the timid, price-wise. $134,000 and up.

    So essentially, compared to the current 200-mile S at around $75K, you're going to pony up another $60,000 to get another 115 miles of range.

    Tesla has met my first prediction for the "first mass market EV", which was a 300 mile range. The second part of my prediction years ago was that it had to sell in the $30,000 range---which is more or less the average cost of a new car today.





  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 58,414
    Impressive if it was a real world price. I wonder if it requires cruising at 58 mph with the AC and radio off.

    Exactly the vehicle that deserves massive tax breaks, and also the customer demographic who deserves them. Such good policy.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    I don't think this is the type of purchase one tries to justify rationally, anymore than you might try to explain away a $3900 Peek-a-boo Fendi handbag. Both are for show and for the Pleasure-To-Own feedback.

    In terms of the history of technology, Tesla might have a more credible place.

  • texasestexases Member Posts: 11,107
    While 0-60 in 2.5 seconds is amazing, it's a toy for rich folks with multiple cars. Not an important contribution. 
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    edited August 2016
    In 10 years, we'll be going so fast in every day life that we'll get in an old car that does 0-60 in 2.5 seconds and start pounding on the dashboard....."C'MON, let's move it!"
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    If y'all don't buy a pot full of them there P100Ds, no T3 for the peons. I was sure his time frame for the Tesla 3 was all BS. And if he ever pulls the T3 out of his hat, no free charging for you cheapskates.


    While the P100D Ludicrous is obviously an expensive vehicle, we want to emphasize that every sale helps pay for the smaller and much more affordable Tesla Model 3 that is in development. Without customers willing to buy the expensive Model S and X, we would be unable to fund the smaller, more affordable Model 3 development.


    http://jalopnik.com/the-new-tesla-p100d-is-the-fastest-tesla-ever-1785657995?rev=1471981077334&utm_campaign=socialflow_jalopnik_facebook&utm_source=jalopnik_facebook&utm_medium=socialflow
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Wasn't that GM's pitch for the longest time?
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    Interesting!

    http://www.autonews.com/article/20160905/OEM05/309059949/tesla-envy-grips-germanys-giants

    I'm more optimistic regarding other major automakers' EV prospects vs. Tesla than this article suggests because I believe it underestimates the resources and creativity of the German and other leading automakers. They're not the old GM. They get it and are acting aggressively on the challenges.

    Your take?
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 58,414
    edited September 2016
    Fun article, not a complete fluff piece as many other Tesla "stories", but not exactly the opposite either. I find it hard to believe that Tesla doesn't contribute some of its funds to certain media outlets. The comments section is hilarious too, I assume nincompoops who have mysteriously fallen into money and bought some stock or an S. I don't think any other brand in the world has such a rabid Kool-Aid drinking cult behind it. Tesla gets credit for the instantaneous making of fanboys, anyway. Not a total game changer, but they've left a mark.

    The tax breaks need to end yesterday.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    You can keep up the mystique and hype just so long before you have to deliver. The unanswered question remains whether Tesla will be able to deliver.

    Regardless, the competition for EVs is likely to become fierce in the coming years, at a time when Tesla is quickly burning through money. Musk will not be able to attract new investments at the favorable terms of the past if the stock price keeps declining.

    I agree with you regarding the tax breaks. I don't think taxpayers should be forced to subsidize EVs, and certainly not the luxury ones.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    Tax breaks are a way of life most everywhere. Take some away and you'll gore someone's very loud ox (home mortgage interest deduction anyone?).

    Elon's ace up his sleeve is the battery factory. If that pans out he's golden (again).
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 58,414
    Tax breaks for 100K+ toys are hard to defend in the real world. At best, it's the trickle down nonsense we have been saddled with for the past 30-35 years. An MSRP cutoff should have been planned from the start - but you get the rules you pay for. These buyers don't really need or deserve the break. I won't even get started on the mortgage insanity which is really a subsidy of the brave and honest FIRE sector. I don't think it exists anywhere else in the developed world. Ownership society lol.

    The bandwagon that has developed since the S is the change in the game. Wannabe-stylish expensive EVs will likely be a fad that exists for over-monied psuedo tech dorks with appliances that blink 12:00 will probably be a market segment for some time.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    I understand your point on tax breaks, but most of them outlive their usefulness.

    If I'm not mistaken Canada's tax code doesn't permit mortgage tax deductions. Yet, from what I've read, the rate of home ownership in Canada is similar to or greater than in the U.S.

    Yes, the gigafactory could give Tesla a potential competitive advantage...if the company can keep raising new capital.

    Who will supply all the batteries required by the other automakers? Maybe Tesla will supply some of them, since Musk has announced plans to build other gigafactories, in China and elsewhere. Would the Detroit 3, European and Asian automakers be okay with purchasing battery packs from a Silicon Valley competitor? I haven't read much about the other automakers' battery procurement plans, only that they plan to roll out many new EV models.

    Could battery procurement be the achilles heal for the world's automakers?
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    My understanding is that Canada's foreclosure rates are less and more consistent than ours in the US too, largely because of the lack of the tax credit. Not sure if you can get low or zero down payment jumbo loans up there either. People who put 20% down on a house are way less likely to walk away from it. Getting the 20% is the trick.

    The Apple tax brouhaha in Ireland is interesting. If we had EU rules here, then Elon may have built his factory where it would have made economic sense and that may have been somewhere besides Nevada. The tax breaks given by Nevada changed the balance sheet equation a whole bunch.

    Mercedes is building a giant battery factory too. In Germany iirc. No idea on incentives given to them (maybe none, per EU rules).
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 58,414
    I wonder if that battery factory will be coal-powered B)
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    I don't remember the sun shining there. B)
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    The profit margins are probably better in batteries than in EVs, which remain money losers.
    If that's true, the fact that a battery manufacturer also gains a strategic advantage makes the case for new battery factories compelling.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    Panasonic thought enough of the idea to go in with Tesla in Nevada.
  • berriberri Member Posts: 10,165
    I'm thinking Tesla viability will go down the drain with these other company trades and shenanigans. That will likely be cash flow diversion from the car lines.

    Now if they can make a true breakthrough in batteries, that would make the Tesla look like chump change.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    Several major universities (eg. MIT, Caltech), plus the leading tech and auto companies around the world are working on a major battery breakthrough because such a discovery would be a major game changer. As you say, the payoff would be enormous. It would change the whole electric vs. ICE equation. Apparently such a breakthrough is very difficult to achieve. But, so was landing a man on the moon.
  • andres3andres3 Member Posts: 13,928
    How about tax breaks for buying diesel cars since they have been tarnished by the VW scandal.
    '18 Porsche Macan Turbo, '16 Audi TTS, Wife's '19 VW Tiguan SEL 4-Motion
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Well yes, but the landing on the moon wasnt' accomplished by a start-up. All the real players in battery technology are Big Dogs, and they are pushing (like Tesla) incremental improvements in existing battery design concepts.

    The short answer is that start-ups can't do this, and so progress, when it happens, will be somewhat glacial in speed.

    A "breaththrough"? Not likely given the economic barriers and the long string of failures. More like evolution, not revolution IMO.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    The $7500 tax credit is for the upper middle class and beyond. How much does a person have to make to have a Federal income tax bill of $7500??? Somewhere over $50k per year I would guess. That credit can only be taken in the year the car is purchased. Even the Cheapo Nissan Leaf would not be practical for the low income crowd.

    Tax credits are purely corporate welfare and make the inequality in this country worse.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    edited September 2016
    I'd guess that most Tesla buyers are making well over $100K a year-- and in California, if you're making just about $100K a year, you might not even be able to afford a Tesla.
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