Is Tesla A Game Changer?

stever

Ordinarily you can spread the credits out over two or three years, assuming you do have the tax liability from income over those years. That's how they sell residential solar here, although one salesperson admitted to me that it was a tax credit for the well to do.

Mr_Shiftright

Well if you break down what happens to a $100K salary for someone living in the SF Bay Area--with a high Tesla population, it would become quickly apparent that after taxes and rent and food, you aren't buying or leasing a new Tesla anytime soon.

texases

Well, you MIGHT be able to afford the next best thing:

fintail

I can pick up a used Leaf for about 6K these days.

gagrice

It’s important to note that it is a tax credit, not a point-of-sale rebate. In other words, you will still have to pay $35,000 (or more) up front for your Model 3. But, if the tax credit is still available for Tesla cars at the time you take delivery of your Model 3, then you can deduct up to $7,500 from your income tax liability that year. In other words, if you normally pay $20,000 in federal income taxes, you will only pay $12,500 in federal tax for the year you buy your Model 3 ($20,000 minues $7,500). Depending on how you manage your tax payments (how much of your taxes are withheld in each paycheck), you will either need to write a smaller check at tax time, or will get a larger refund from the IRS. You can read more about this incentive program here.

https://cleantechnica.com/2016/04/19/how-the-ev-tax-credit-works-tesla-model-3/

hpmctorque

You summarized it vey well, gary.

Mr_Shiftright

Well it's very common for governments to subsidize new technologies that they want to see developed in the marketplace, both for domestic and international trade. I suppose the idea is that if you want to get on Tesla's Gravy Train you have to invest in the company. Why Tesla gets all this help with no payback is another issue.

gagrice

TSLA is taking another hit today on the stock market. Another fatal crash this time in the Netherlands. Was Autopilot being used? May never know as this one exploded into flames.

A man has died after his 'autopilot' electric car collided with a tree and burst into flames .

And firefighters then took hours to remove the Dutchman's body from the Tesla over fears they could be electrocuted.

The cause of the crash on a highway about 40 kilometres east of Amsterdam is not known.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/man-killed-horror-autopilot-tesla-8791671

berri

Personally, I'm not a Tesla fan, but it will be sad if an Audi 5000 type scenario ruins them.

gagrice

If Tesla self destructs it will be Elon's fault. He seems obsessed with Speed. Why does ANYONE need a family sedan or SUV that will go 0-60 in 2.5 seconds? Lower the HP and give the buyers another 100 mile range.

fintail

I thought some of the claimed safety benefit of these was less of a chance of fire due to lack of gasoline.

I suspect this is Tesla's dumb naming and marketing at work - don't call it autopilot if it's not an autopilot. Just because someone can afford the car doesn't mean they are with it.

hpmctorque

Mr_Shiftright said:

Well it's very common for governments to subsidize new technologies that they want to see developed in the marketplace, both for domestic and international trade. I suppose the idea is that if you want to get on Tesla's Gravy Train you have to invest in the company. Why Tesla gets all this help with no payback is another issue.

There are a lot of things that are common for reasons that don't represent the best allocation of resources. The government didn't subsidize Henry Ford or Thomas Edison, for example, or, as far as I know, Apple, Microsoft or Google, for that matter.

I'm not saying the government should never subsidize development of a new technology, but I favor subsidies for basic research (e.g. NIH [The National Institutes of Health]) over having the government pick commercial enterprise winners and losers.

What's not clearly understood by many citizens is that government subsidies are ultimately paid for by tax payers, in one form or another. Sometimes government subsidies of private companies and industries yields good results, but more often than not talented people who have skin in the game, and have a clear understanding of of their business, goals and risks, allocate resources more effectively that bureaucrats.

hpmctorque

gagrice said:

TSLA is taking another hit today on the stock market. Another fatal crash this time in the Netherlands. Was Autopilot being used? May never know as this one exploded into flames.

A man has died after his 'autopilot' electric car collided with a tree and burst into flames .

And firefighters then took hours to remove the Dutchman's body from the Tesla over fears they could be electrocuted.

The cause of the crash on a highway about 40 kilometres east of Amsterdam is not known.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/man-killed-horror-autopilot-tesla-8791671

It has been reported that Autopilot was not being used during the driving cycle of the accident in the Netherlands. From what I read the driver ran into a tree at high speed.

Mr_Shiftright

Never a good idea. Trees don't "give" much.

Well no, the government didn't subsidize Edison or Ford, unless you include lucrative war contracts. But those were the days of brutal capitalism, wherein Ford and Edison subsidized themselves through tyrannizing their employees, or if not that, skimming their genius and giving them no credit for anything.

The days of single individuals "inventing" something are pretty much long gone. Case in point when we were talking about a "battery breakthrough". This is not going to happen in someone's garage.

Given the enormous sums required to develop certain types of "hard" technology, government subsidy might be the only way it would happen. By subsidy, I don't mean for R&D, but to commercialize the product.

berri

Personally, I think it is a good idea for government to provide research money for promising technology, but not so much for the actual development. I think Obama was wrong to pour all that money into the Solar company, but wouldn't object had he allocated it to places like MIT or Cal Tech to work on solar research and feasibility.

stever

“The reason they’re [Tesla] so successful is because everybody is fed up with the traditional dealership model,” said James Albertine, senior auto analyst at Consumer Edge Research. “If BMW or Audi or Lexus isn’t working on that, then they’re at a loss.”

The article also talks about all the goodwill that franchise dealers have in local communities. I think the dealers are fooling themselves, and think that having relationships with bankers and making some charitable donations doesn't counteract the awful experience so many people have buying and servicing their cars.

The battle between Tesla and your neighborhood car dealership (Washington Post)

fintail

I don't know if the average Tesla buyer can be transferred to "everybody".

But I know in these days, timid drivers are also going to be scared at negotiating a price for a car.

stever

Good point - I'd like to point to Amazon's killing of independent bookstores, but that may not be the best analogy for a big ticket sale like a car.

fintail

It'll be interesting to see how the glorious sales model pans out when the undeserved tax breaks expire, and when a mainstream (no more than 35K moderately equipped) model is needed. I find it hard to compare Tesla to a mainstream independent company until it exists on the same planet. Selling 80K++ toys to a small goofy demographic has produced mostly fluff pieces from the media, so far.

Mr_Shiftright

stever said:

Good point - I'd like to point to Amazon's killing of independent bookstores, but that may not be the best analogy for a big ticket sale like a car.

It might be more analogous to point out that the Kindle E-Book did not, in fact, eliminate the printed book, as was predicted by the usually-wrong "futurists". (Hey, how I can I get paid for being wrong---I'm so good at it!)

As for franchise dealerships--they are worried---they know change is roarin' down the Pike right at them. I think many dealers are open to online car sales, but only WITHIN their current brick and mortar framework.

Elon Musk is, as one magazine put it, "ludicrously ambitious" and one has to wonder how much longer he can continue to bleed money. One of his Space-X rockets just blew up, he is expanding into batteries, and he wants to put a man on Mars by 2025 ( yeah, good luck with that).

One has to admit that his products are credible but I'm not sure his business model is.

gagrice

Mr_Shiftright said:

stever said:

Good point - I'd like to point to Amazon's killing of independent bookstores, but that may not be the best analogy for a big ticket sale like a car.

It might be more analogous to point out that the Kindle E-Book did not, in fact, eliminate the printed book, as was predicted by the usually-wrong "futurists". (Hey, how I can I get paid for being wrong---I'm so good at it!)

As for franchise dealerships--they are worried---they know change is roarin' down the Pike right at them. I think many dealers are open to online car sales, but only WITHIN their current brick and mortar framework.

Elon Musk is, as one magazine put it, "ludicrously ambitious" and one has to wonder how much longer he can continue to bleed money. One of his Space-X rockets just blew up, he is expanding into batteries, and he wants to put a man on Mars by 2025 ( yeah, good luck with that).

One has to admit that his products are credible but I'm not sure his business model is.

I agree on all points. Musk's latest con with getting Tesla to absorb the losses at Solar City, may be his undoing. The deal is for Tesla to buy SCTY at $2.6 Billion. Well as of yesterday its stock is only worth $1.6 billion. It has lost $9 per share since Tesla (Musk) agreed to buy Solar City. In the mean time people are bailing out of Tesla which has lost $40 per share since the buyout was announced the end of July. Both companies are bleeding red ink by the bucket fulls. Tax incentives and Carbon Credits are not enough to bail him out.

On books we need more space. We are always looking for older books at thrift shops and yard sales.

Mr_Shiftright

From what I've read, a pretty good percentage of Tesla stockholders are going short.

stever

Not every EV purchase experience follows the Tesla model per this dealer review today. The service comment was telling too.

Here's the gist if you don't want to click through:

"As far as the outdated, pushy, arrogant, demeaning tactics used by many dealerships goes, it is time to phase it out for good and replace it with the more up to date and much more consumer friendly Tesla sales method."

Mr_Shiftright

That's fine if you have no competition. I'd like to see what happens to Gentle Ben and his Tesla Sales Team when they get as hungry as a Nissan Leaf salesman.

fintail

I suspect in general the sales experience for 25K cars is a tad bit different from 100K+ cars, EV or not.

No-negotiation direct sales seems like a way to pad profit margins just as much as the traditional dealer model of taking advantage of ignorant buyers. In this day of endless information available for next to nothing, there's little excuse for blindly falling into a bad deal. But if the sales outlet is a form of monopoly, then maybe the best deal will cease to exist.

Mr_Shiftright

I've been to a Tesla "showroom". It's definitely low key. If a "normal" car salesman acted like Tesla sales people act, they'd be skidding on their butts as they were tossed out the door.

Michaell

Mr_Shiftright said:

I've been to a Tesla "showroom". It's definitely low key. If a "normal" car salesman acted like Tesla sales people act, they'd be skidding on their butts as they were tossed out the door.

Agreed. Of course, if you put normal car salesman into the upscale malls where you normally find Tesla stores, they probably wouldn't know what to make of the clientele.

Mr_Shiftright

It's a different breed.

gagrice

I want a dealership with trained mechanics to cover my warranty repairs. From what I have read all the Tesla models are far from trouble free. What happens if you are traveling cross country and it quits? about half the states sales are banned and most don't have any place for service. I see them as Eco Ego commuter cars.

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1095337_where-can-tesla-legally-sell-cars-directly-to-you-state-by-state-map

Mr_Shiftright

Don't drive one in the Midwest! (looks like you're good in TX and Colorado however).

Probably a long flatbed ride would cover most states, but looks like if you break down in Minnesota or North Dakota, you're screwed.

gagrice

This may be a game changer for Tesla. The Chevy Bolt is going to announce tomorrow how far their EV will go past 200 miles. Priced fairly close to the Model 3 with more room and delivery at least a year earlier. Plus having dealers all over to service the warranty.

Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak (a.k.a. "Woz") certainly likes his green cars.

Over the years, he's owned a Toyota Prius hybrid and a Tesla Model S electric luxury sedan.

But now, it seems, Woz has found himself a new favorite plug-in vehicle.After getting a ride in the 2017 Chevrolet Bolt EV from a member of the car's development team, Woz came away impressed.

"I expect to be switching cars soon," he declared in a Facebook post, accompanied by a photo of him giving a thumbs up next to a white Bolt EV.

Addressing comments on the photo, Woz added that "Tesla will have a difficult time selling me a Model 3," and that the Chevy could potentially replace his Model S.

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1106012_apples-woz-likes-chevy-bolt-ev-better-than-tesla-model-3-he-says

stever

I'd be happy just to find a new Volt to eyeball. None in ABQ last week. I could go a long time on 50 mile of EV.

gagrice

stever said:

I'd be happy just to find a new Volt to eyeball. None in ABQ last week. I could go a long time on 50 mile of EV.

With 200+ mile range I could run out to Borrego and check out the flowers, have breakfast, hike up to Palm Canyon, and not worry about making it back home on a single charge. The best part would be paying $7500 less in Federal taxes. If it has 8 years and 120k mile warranty, I may get one for our daily run about. Put up a carport with solar panels on it.

andres3

gagrice said:

stever said:

I'd be happy just to find a new Volt to eyeball. None in ABQ last week. I could go a long time on 50 mile of EV.

With 200+ mile range I could run out to Borrego and check out the flowers, have breakfast, hike up to Palm Canyon, and not worry about making it back home on a single charge. The best part would be paying $7500 less in Federal taxes. If it has 8 years and 120k mile warranty, I may get one for our daily run about. Put up a carport with solar panels on it.

What's your favorite breakfast in Borrego? I like the drive up into Borrego from I8 and then back to civilization on S22.

Mr_Shiftright

One article said 238 miles, as per GM's report to the EPA.

gagrice

Andres3,
We like the Borrego Springs Resort. A close friend owns it so we eat there. Also Kendalls have a good breakfast.

gagrice

Are the biggies all aiming their sights at the Tesla Model 3. Better hurry as demand may be more limited than the automakers are hoping for. Bolt will hit the market first with their 238 mile range hatchback.

Last month VW brand CEO Herbert Diess told the German news magazine WirtschaftsWoche that the EV will be the size of a Golf compact hatchback but with the interior space of the Passat midsize car. The extra room comes from the way the batteries have been packaged in the floor of the car.

It will have a range on a single charge of 250-300 miles, reports say.

http://www.autonews.com/article/20160916/COPY01/309169955/vw-teases-ev-concept-that-it-says-heralds-new-era-for-brand

The Volkswagen Budd-e concept has been revealed at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, previewing an advanced new four-wheel-drive electrically powered MPV that's set to join the firm's production car line-up in 2018.

Described as a gateway to the future, the four-seat Budd-e forms the centrepiece of an ambitious electric car initiative instigated by chairman Matthias Müller in the aftermath of Volkswagen’s diesel emission cheating scandal.

The concept features the latest in lithium ion battery technology, providing a claimed zero-emission range of up to 331 miles on the European test cycle – a considerable 213 miles more than the German car maker claims for the existing e-Golf.

http://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-ces/volkswagen-budd-e-concept-revealed-ces

gagrice

Tesla stockholders are getting on the bandwagon against Musk's scams. Musk started out his many money losing ventures with a net worth of about $2 billion. Three companies bleeding lots of red ink and he is now worth $12 billion. I would not buy any stock that rascal was involved in.

Tesla Motors Inc. faces a potential delay in its acquisition of SolarCity Corp. from four shareholder lawsuits, creating added urgency as both companies use up cash.
The suits by four different shareholders, outlined in a regulatory filing Monday, all allege that Tesla’s executives and board breached their fiduciary duty by entering into the pact because Chairman Elon Musk and other Tesla insiders hold shares in both companies. One plaintiff seeks an injunction to stop the transaction, potentially holding up a deal until a hearing on Oct. 18 at the earliest. The cases are without merit, Tesla said in the filing.

The lawsuits were filed by the City of Riviera Beach Pension Fund, Arkansas Teacher Retirement System, and individual shareholders P. Evan Stephens and Ellen Prasinos. They seek to force Tesla to rescind the merger proposal and pay damages to the shareholders, and one seeks to establish a class action against Tesla.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-19/tesla-solarcity-merger-could-be-delayed-by-shareholder-lawsuits

Mr_Shiftright

“Tesla and SolarCity have yet to turn a regular profit,” Prasinos stated in her lawsuit. “Instead, they burned through billions of dollars of investors’ cash year after year and, SolarCity is now on the verge of failure.”
------------------------------------------------------------------
Regulatory filings have shown that Tesla spent $600 million in cash during the first six months of 2016, while SolarCity spent $1.3 billion in cash.

So Tesla might have a good chance of bringing out its low priced EV, but maybe not with Solar City around its neck.

andres3

Mr_Shiftright said:

“Tesla and SolarCity have yet to turn a regular profit,” Prasinos stated in her lawsuit. “Instead, they burned through billions of dollars of investors’ cash year after year and, SolarCity is now on the verge of failure.”
------------------------------------------------------------------
Regulatory filings have shown that Tesla spent $600 million in cash during the first six months of 2016, while SolarCity spent $1.3 billion in cash.

So Tesla might have a good chance of bringing out its low priced EV, but maybe not with Solar City around its neck.

Solar City didn't want to negotiate anything in their contract; a non-starter for me. Too many clauses that favor them; surprised they aren't making money, must be wasting a lot on marketing.

gagrice

andres3 said:

Mr_Shiftright said:

“Tesla and SolarCity have yet to turn a regular profit,” Prasinos stated in her lawsuit. “Instead, they burned through billions of dollars of investors’ cash year after year and, SolarCity is now on the verge of failure.”
------------------------------------------------------------------
Regulatory filings have shown that Tesla spent $600 million in cash during the first six months of 2016, while SolarCity spent $1.3 billion in cash.

So Tesla might have a good chance of bringing out its low priced EV, but maybe not with Solar City around its neck.

Solar City didn't want to negotiate anything in their contract; a non-starter for me. Too many clauses that favor them; surprised they aren't making money, must be wasting a lot on marketing.

NV of their biggest markets lost the Net Metering battle. Many of the sunny states are limiting the benefits of net metering. Making Solar less attractive. Last I saw the court offered a compromise. Those with solar installed would keep their net metering. Not any new installations.

If the court rules in favor of the measure — backed by the Bring Back Solar Alliance and funded by the rooftop solar company SolarCity — voters, not state utility regulators or the Legislature, will decide how net metering should continue to evolve in Nevada.


http://www.reviewjournal.com/business/energy/nevada-supreme-court-decide-whether-net-metering-issue-will-make-nov-8-ballot

berri

I've got to ask a basic question: All these tech and auto companies are spending lots of money on driverless cars; but who really wants one (other than some big brother government people perhaps)???

How do you handle rush hour on the expressway with them? You don't have different altitudes to stack them, so do they sit in the penalty box until a slot opens???

fintail

There are so many unanswered questions about driverless cars, a trillion terabytes couldn't hold it all.

I still want to know what will compensate for the loss of traffic enforcement revenues. I assume it won't be taxes on the crowd buying Model Xs now.

berri

Not trying to be a cynic, but is the real game plan perhaps to take away individual vehicle ownership, push people into renting and sharing where the big companies can charge them daily and the gov can tax those charges? Think about it; almost guaranteed revenue streams for both business and government, and people can then no longer drive fully paid for cars around. Business - win, Gov - win, working stiff - lose (and you can do it all under the guise of green weenie benefits. By the time the citizens wake up that they've been had, it's too late).

fintail

But what about the taxes generated by vehicle sales and repairs? Those new taxes or rental fees would have to be pretty onerous to offset what already exists, I think.

"Business - win, Gov - win, working stiff - lose"

In many or most places, that's the past 40 or so years of socio-economic evolution. And nobody will wake up.

berri

On a "daily" charge basis they can cram 'em in there. Besides, in most states car sales tax is only on the net difference between sale price less trade in. They'll try to sell it as no gasoline purchases, no repair costs, no license plate fees, etc. Be honest, many people have no business training or schooling. They don't really understand cost of goods sold or overhead costs. The real profit will come from people never having a break in car payments, or being able to purchase used cars. I think the only big obstacle to this approach will be the car dealer lobby! btw, I just read somewhere that your city of Seattle and its tech community want to make I-5 driverless vehicles only from Seattle to Vancouver, Canada. That doesn't happen without someone smelling big financial benefits!

stever

I'd love to be able to plug my destination into my Garmin and have the car drive me there. I never hear fisherpeople or sailors complain about not being able to "drive" themselves around in the open water. They still have to watch out for logs and drunken speedboaters though.

For the Uber crowd, there's charter boats and Carnival.

gagrice

In California it is full bore sales tax 8-10% on every auto purchase new or used. If you don't have a bill of sale on a used car purchase they use dealer retail to base the tax when you register. Another good reason to move to Oregon before I buy another vehicle.

berri

Well I'm just a Midwestern rube, but seems to me that when gov and industry are pushing something, it is not usually the average citizen that is going to make out. And where do you think all the necessary infrastructure cost is going to come from? Couldn't be sales, property or income tax

berri

Stever, you are assuming that the system will let you go wherever, whenever. But look at aviation, there is only so much room (and not nearly as many units competing for open space in a 3-D world). I'm sorry, but this whole concept smells of penalty box holds and delays, not to mention unanticipated technical problems and cost overruns to support it all. And it is infrastructure, so you know who is going to end up paying for most of it!